UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev

Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev, calling the -140 odds a gift. He notes Rozenstruik is one-dimensional and flat-footed, while Gaziev has power, wrestling, and better movement. He has a full unit bet on Gaziev and expects him to win.

Big Brady picks Rozenstruik despite acknowledging Gaziev's power and early finishing ability. He notes that Gaziev has only been past 1.5 rounds once and has cardio concerns, while Rozenstruik has five-round experience and a fifth-round knockout. He believes if the fight extends, it heavily favors Rozenstruik. However, he admits he has no confidence in the pick and won't bet the fight except maybe a prop.

Cody sees Rozenstruik as a live underdog due to his knockout power and proven five-round cardio, noting that Gaziev has weak cardio and has never been extended beyond two rounds. He believes if Rozenstruik survives the early takedown onslaught, Gaziev will gas and Rozenstruik can finish him late. He compares it to the Overeem fight where Rozenstruik knocked him out in the fifth round.

Gaziev is a strong grappler who should get the fight to the ground with relative ease. Rozenstruik struggles against grapplers, as seen in losses to Curtis Blaydes, Jailton Almeida, and Alexander Volkov. Gaziev's striking confidence has improved, and he can stay safe from Rozenstruik's power until he secures a takedown. Once on the ground, Gaziev's strength will be too much, leading to a TKO or submission finish within the first round. The host considers -145 a gift line.

Paul picks Gaziev but acknowledges it's a 60/40 fight and not one he has a big edge on. He expects Gaziev to get early takedowns but questions what happens after that, noting Gaziev's cardio concerns. He mentions the fight feels like a toss-up and he's not entirely confident.

The MMA Guru struggles with this pick but ultimately goes with Rozenstruik. He thinks Gaziev is open on the feet and has been dropped before, while Rozenstruik has power and experience in main events. He worries about Rozenstruik's takedown defense but believes he can survive and find opportunities. He predicts a KO in round one and mentions betting on Rozenstruik as an underdog.

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.

Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.

Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.

Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.

Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.

The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.

Angelo is very confident in Muhammad Mokaev, calling the -240 odds a discount. He notes Mokaev's dominant wrestling and composure, while Alex Perez hasn't won in four years and has no wins over active UFC fighters. He expects Mokaev to win despite sometimes making fights close.

Big Brady picks Mokaev, citing Perez's long layoff and 14 canceled bouts. He notes Perez has only 3 minutes of cage time in the last 4 years and was submitted quickly in his last two fights. Mokaev is younger, hungrier, and more active, with multiple submissions in the UFC. He expects Mokaev to submit Perez, possibly in the third round, but acknowledges the line might be off if the best version of Perez shows up.

Cody picks Perez as a dog, arguing that Mokaev has shown holes in recent fights and could have lost to Malcolm Gordon, Jafel Filho, and Tim Elliott. He notes that flyweight is the most competitive division and that Perez, despite the layoff, is only 31 and has fought top competition. He believes Perez's striking and grappling are superior to Mokaev's previous opponents and that the layoff may not be a negative if Perez used it to improve.

Mokaev is dominant in the grappling realm and good at finding submissions, but his striking is more flash than substance. He was nearly beaten by Tim Elliot, who caused scrambles and frustrations. Perez is a dangerous opponent who may be motivated to prove himself, but Mokaev should still win. The host expects the fight to go to the scorecards with Mokaev landing better damage and control, but it will be closer than the odds indicate.

Paul picks Mokaev but is hesitant due to Perez's long layoff and question marks. He notes Mokaev's youth and improvement but also his low volume and reliance on takedowns without much damage. He mentions the Apex favors Mokaev's style as there's no crowd to pressure the ref to stand them up. He ultimately sticks with Mokaev despite considering Perez.

The MMA Guru picks Mokaev to win by submission in the third round, following the trend of Mokaev's fights where he looks bad early but submits opponents late. He predicts Perez will win the first round, then Mokaev will chain wrestling in the second, and Perez will slow down and give up the neck for a rear-naked choke in the third.

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, acknowledging Bekzat Almakhan is a very good fighter but believes Umar's wrestling and kicking range will be the difference. He notes the odds are too high to bet on Umar at -900, removing any temptation to bet.

Big Brady picks Umar to finish Almakhan in the second round by submission. He notes Umar is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling—and has fought much better competition. He thinks Almakhan is a solid fighter but is outmatched. He calls Umar a -1200 favorite and expects a finish.

Cody also picks Umar, noting that Almakhan is a sacrificial lamb brought in to lose. He compares Almakhan to other undefeated regional fighters who struggle in the UFC, like Azat Maksum. Cody believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior and that Almakhan's only path to victory is a freak accident or foul. He calls it a squash match.

Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent wrestling and striking, but Almakhan is a legitimate regional champion with improving skills. The host expects Nurmagomedov to win by decision rather than finish, as Almakhan is more disciplined than in his sole loss. The over 1.5 rounds is too chalky at -200, but Nurmagomedov by decision prop could offer plus money. The host advises against parlaying the -1050 moneyline.

Paul picks Umar confidently, calling him a future champion. He notes that Almakhan is a short-notice replacement with a padded record and that Umar is levels above. He mentions that Almakhan is well-rounded but not elite in any area, and Umar should dominate everywhere. He acknowledges the minus-1000 price is prohibitive for straight bets but sees Umar as a safe parlay piece.

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov, noting he is a massive bantamweight with strength and grappling advantages. He predicts Umar will get a takedown, take the back, and choke out Almakhan in round one. He sees a significant strength difference and believes Almakhan looks frail in comparison.

Angelo picks Steve Erceg, noting his slick grappling and ability to scramble. He thinks Erceg will use his length and grappling to win, despite not looking like a professional fighter. He acknowledges Matt Schnell's toughness but believes Erceg will get the win, possibly by decision.

Big Brady picks Erceg to win by second-round submission. He worries about Schnell's chin and durability, noting Schnell has been finished in 6 of 7 losses and has taken massive damage. He thinks Erceg will hurt Schnell and then submit him. He acknowledges Schnell's grappling but believes his durability is a major issue.

Cody picks Erceg, emphasizing Schnell's poor durability and history of getting knocked down. He notes that Erceg is a scrappy fighter with good grappling and volume, and that Schnell's best chance is a Hail Mary submission. Cody believes Erceg will eventually hurt Schnell and finish him, possibly in the middle rounds. He disagrees with the over, leaning towards the fight not going the distance.

Erceg is too clean and precise with his striking for Schnell, who lacks the reaction time to stop him. Erceg should land straight shots down the pipe, drop Schnell, and find the finish. Schnell has durability issues and has been in trouble in fights he even won. Erceg's BJJ is also a threat, but the host prefers a TKO finish. The under 1.5 rounds is plus money, and Erceg inside the distance is the play.

Paul picks Erceg and likes the over 1.5 rounds at -130. He notes Erceg is not a big power puncher but has a high pace and good grappling. He thinks Schnell is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, but Erceg may not have the power to finish early, making the over likely. He mentions Schnell's durability issues but believes Erceg will wear him down.

The MMA Guru picks Erceg but is not entirely confident. He criticizes Schnell's chin and submission defense, saying he taps easily. He expects Erceg to outdamage Schnell over a decision, possibly dropping him, but notes Erceg's finishing instincts are not great. He predicts a decision win for Erceg.

Angelo picks Eryk Anders, citing his athleticism, durability, and ability to bully his way to a win. He notes Anders is a large favorite at -330, which is too wide for him, but he expects Anders to win. He suggests there might be value on inside the distance props.

Big Brady picks Anders, calling it a cage-pushing fight. He notes Anders has higher volume, more power, and is physically stronger. He expects Anders to push Pickett against the cage and take him down, similar to his 24-takedown-attempt fight. He predicts a greasy decision win for Anders.

Cody picks Anders, calling him a gatekeeper who beats lower-level opponents like Pickett. He notes Pickett's terrible output and lack of finishing ability, and that Anders has been competitive with better fighters. Cody believes Anders will win but calls it a bad bet at minus-500, though he admits he'll include Anders in parlays as a degenerate.

Anders should be able to force the action, push Pickett against the cage, and land takedowns. However, Anders is 36 and slowing down, and -400 is not a number to trust with him. The fight is expected to be closely competitive and go to the scorecards, with Anders likely getting his hand raised. The host prefers the over or fight goes to decision.

Paul picks Anders but is hesitant due to the minus-500 price. He notes Anders has been inconsistent but has faced better competition and has shown improved cardio and output recently. He thinks Pickett is on a losing streak and lacks volume or power. Paul expects Anders to win but acknowledges the price is steep and that Pickett could make it close.

The MMA Guru initially considered Pickett but decided Anders is the pick. He notes Anders was close with Marc-André Barriault and had a scrap, while Pickett is on a four-fight losing streak and has no impressive wins. He calls Pickett 'awful' and says his wins are unimpressive.

Angelo picks Vinicius Oliveira, expecting him to bring forward pressure and aggression. He notes that Oliveira is sloppy but dangerous, while Benardo Sopaj is a patient, boring striker. He thinks Oliveira will win and the fight will not go the distance.

Cody picks Oliveira but is hesitant, noting the fight was just announced. He mentions Oliveira's solid wins and finishing ability, but also his questionable durability. He notes Sopaj is undersized and on short notice. Cody says he would have bet Oliveira at -150 but now at even money it's more appealing, though he needs to see weigh-ins.

Paul tentatively picks Oliveira, noting he has no strong opinion due to the fight being added late. He mentions Oliveira's size advantage and leg kicks as key factors. He acknowledges Sopaj is a young prospect but undersized. Paul says he needs to do more research and let the line settle before feeling confident.

Angelo picks Javid Basharat, noting he has incredible offensive and defensive wrestling and can also kickbox. He believes Basharat should avoid Aiemann Zahabi's power and win likely by decision. He mentions he has picked and bet on both Basharat brothers before and is confident in Javid.

Big Brady picks Basharat, noting Zahabi's low-volume counter-striking style and reliance on a knockout. He thinks Basharat is a much higher-level fighter and will cruise to a decision, winning minutes. He acknowledges Zahabi has power but believes Basharat's chin will hold up.

Cody picks Basharat by decision, noting his superior volume and wrestling. He points out that Zahabi's career-high in significant strikes is 54, which would be a career low for Basharat. Cody believes Basharat will outwork Zahabi on the feet and take him down, winning a clear unanimous decision. He mentions the price is inflated but still sees Basharat as a safe pick.

Basharat is one of the best prospects at 135 lbs, with smooth striking, excellent footwork and distance management, and improving grappling. Zahabi is 36 and past his prime, while Basharat is much closer to his. Basharat's striking defense should keep him safe from Zahabi's power, and he may even take the fight to the ground. Basharat likely wins by decision, but the line is too high to bet straight; parlay value may exist.

Paul picks Basharat, noting his high volume and well-rounded skills. He mentions Zahabi's low output and reliance on a single counter punch, which won't work against Basharat's pressure. Paul believes Basharat will double Zahabi's strike output and mix in takedowns for a clear decision win. He acknowledges the minus-900 price is tough but sees Basharat as safe.

The MMA Guru picks Basharat, citing his unorthodox striking, movement, and dynamic attacks (spinning attacks, low kicks, stance switching). He thinks Zahabi is too simple and that Basharat's dynamic style will be the difference, though the boxing may be even.

Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan as the more technical fighter, noting that both are dangerous strikers but Duncan has better technique. He expects the fight to end inside the distance due to both fighters' recklessness. He mentions that Cláudio Ribeiro is nuts dangerous but Duncan should win.

Big Brady picks Duncan to finish Ribeiro by knockout in the second round. He notes Duncan is much more skilled, with good defensive wrestling and a ton of striking tools. He criticizes Ribeiro's 31% striking defense and poor cardio, and expects Duncan to wear him out and finish him late second round.

Cody picks Duncan, emphasizing Ribeiro's poor durability and lack of defense. He notes that Ribeiro is explosive for one round but fades quickly, and Duncan's precision striking from the outside will be effective. Cody compares Ribeiro to Dennis Tulin, whom Duncan already beat. He expects Duncan to win by knockout in the second or third round.

Duncan is the bigger, stronger fighter and should control the majority of the fight. He can clinch Ribeiro against the cage, wear on him with knees and elbows, and deflate Ribeiro's power and explosiveness. Duncan's maturity was shown in his last fight against Tulan, where he slowed the pace and found the finish in the second round. The over 1.5 rounds at plus money is intriguing, but Duncan should get the knockout in the second round.

Paul picks Duncan, noting his technical striking and ability to fight at range. He contrasts Ribeiro's one-dimensional brawling style and poor cardio. Paul believes Duncan will counter Ribeiro's wild swings and finish him inside the distance, similar to how he handled Dennis Tulin. He acknowledges the small cage could be a factor but favors Duncan's skill.

The MMA Guru believes Duncan has better movement, kickboxing, and strength in the clinch. He notes Ribeiro has no good wins and is coming off a KO loss, while Duncan is coming off a TKO win. He predicts a highlight-reel KO for Duncan.

Big Brady picks Klein, noting Cunningham is very hittable and took a lot of damage on the Contender Series. He thinks Klein can land bigger shots and mix in takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Klein, acknowledging Cunningham's toughness but expecting Klein to control the fight.

Cody picks Klein, detailing Cunningham's weaknesses: no head movement, poor wrestling, and a history of taking damage. He notes Klein's southpaw stance and straight left will be a problem for Cunningham. Cody believes Klein can dictate where the fight goes and will likely finish Cunningham, who has been knocked out before.

Paul picks Klein, calling it a mismatch. He notes Cunningham is a short-notice replacement moving up a weight class with poor striking defense. Paul believes Klein's straight left will land all night and that Cunningham's only chance is a lucky punch. He expects Klein to win by knockout or dominant decision.

The MMA Guru is very confident in Klein, citing that Cunningham has not beaten a single good opponent in his career and lost to known opponents. He believes Klein will dominate and beat Cunningham badly.

Angelo leans Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady because he believes the striking danger matters more than the takedown danger. He notes that every round starts on the feet and Loik Radzhabov, who was just knocked out, will have to worry about Abdul's power. He thinks Abdul likely wins by finish but is unsure about bets.

Big Brady picks Al-Selwady, noting his impressive performance against George Hardwick where he outstruck a hyped fighter. He thinks Al-Selwady will keep the fight standing and out-volume Radzhabov, who has low volume and has been hurt on the feet. He expects a decision win for Al-Selwady, as Radzhabov is durable but may tire.

Cody picks Al-Selwady, noting Radzhabov's reliance on wrestling and poor cardio. He points out that when Radzhabov can't get takedowns, he struggles, as seen in his loss to Mateusz Rębecki. Cody believes Al-Selwady's wrestling and pace will tire Radzhabov, leading to a decision or late TKO. He mentions Radzhabov's durability issues.

Radzhabov has a slight height and striking advantage, being cleaner down the pipe. Al-Selwady usually wings shots and crashes the pocket, but Radzhabov's pure wrestling advantage should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. Radzhabov has far better experience against legitimate opponents and should outpoint Al-Selwady for a decision win.

Paul picks Al-Selwady, citing his solid cardio, pace, and well-rounded skills. He notes Radzhabov's tendency to overexert and his poor durability, having been knocked out multiple times. Paul believes Al-Selwady will outwork Radzhabov and possibly finish him late. He mentions Al-Selwady's impressive win over George Hardwick on the Contender Series.

The MMA Guru picks Al-Selwady over Radzhabov, calling Radzhabov 'dog [__]' and lacking athleticism. He praises Al-Selwady's performance against George Hardwick, noting his stance switching, leg kicks, and takedown threats. He believes Al-Selwady will outwork Radzhabov and cause damage as the fight goes on.