Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov with extreme confidence, calling minus 500 understated. He argues Umar is better in every aspect: striking, wrestling, speed, and strength. He questions how Figueiredo can win given his 57% takedown defense and lack of power. He believes Umar has way more paths to victory.

Big Brady sees this as a brutal matchup for Figueiredo, who is 38 and coming off a poor performance against Sandhagen. He expects Umar to take him down easily and submit him, likely by rear-naked choke in the second round. He notes Figueiredo's only chance is a guillotine or big shot, but both are unlikely.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Umar's wrestling and Figueiredo's decline. He mentions Figueiredo's poor cardio and lack of activity, making Umar a strong favorite. Cody is not betting the money line but considers the over 2.5 rounds or Umar by decision as alternatives.

Connor argues that Figueiredo has adapted well at bantamweight by slowing pace and relying on wrestling, but Umar is a superior wrestler and grappler who won't be outwrestled. He notes that Figueiredo's slow pace won't work against Umar's high volume of kicks and pressure, and that Figueiredo struggled on the ground against Corey Sandhagen. Connor believes the odds are disrespectful to Figueiredo, but still picks Umar confidently.

Daniel Vreeland picks Umar Nurmagomedov to dominate. He notes that Umar is younger, taller, and a massive favorite. Vreeland respects Figueiredo's power and experience but believes Umar will outwork him and possibly secure a finish. He advises passing on betting due to the steep odds.

James is confident in Nurmagomedov, citing his elite training camp with Islam Makhachev and Figueiredo's apparent lack of focus (posting guns and weightlifting). He predicts a submission win, possibly a rear-naked choke, and notes the odds reflect the disparity.

The host is confident in Nurmagomedov, expecting him to take Figueiredo down and wear him out for a late finish. He notes Figueiredo's only chance is a puncher's shot or guillotine, but doubts he can outwrestle or outstrike Nurmagomedov. He finds the -500 line amusing but sees it as justified, predicting a third-round finish.

Paul picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is not betting the money line due to the steep price. He believes Umar's wrestling and control will be too much for Figueiredo, who has declined at bantamweight. Paul notes Figueiredo's lack of cardio and recent performances, making Umar a safe pick for parlays.

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov, noting his constant pressure and grappling advantage over Figueiredo's 'small moments'. He believes Umar will survive Figueiredo's tricks and finish him via TKO in round two.

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.

Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.

Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.

Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.

The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.

Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his superior wrestling and striking compared to Merab Dvalishvili. He believes Umar's kicks and range management will keep Merab at bay, and his scramble skills will neutralize Merab's takedown attempts. He notes that Merab's cardio is a factor but thinks Umar's overall skills will win out.

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is hesitant due to the price. He believes Umar has the style to beat Merab, with superior wrestling and striking, and can thwart takedowns. However, he notes Merab's incredible pace and durability, and that Umar's line is too high. Cody also points out that Merab has been taken down before and struggles off his back, but Umar's lack of top competition and the value on Merab give him pause.

Connor picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his excellent boxing, jab, and ability to maintain range. He notes that Umar has faced similar pressure fighters before (like Cody Stamann and Raoni Barcelos) and shut them down with his positional striking. Connor warns that Merab's unique cardio and pace make him dangerous, but Umar's technical striking and takedown defense should allow him to win rounds. He also points out that Umar cannot afford to make the same mistakes he made against Cory Sandhagen, where he took risky scrambles. Connor believes Umar's game plan of using the jab and staying at range is the key to beating Merab.

Daniel picks Umar but is hesitant, acknowledging Merab's proven ability to make great fighters look human. He notes Umar's striking edge and length, and believes the grappling will neutralize itself. However, he is concerned about Merab's pace and toughness, and mentions that Merab has been hurt on the feet before. Daniel ultimately goes with Umar to become the new champion but says he is not betting on the fight.

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov to become champion, citing his long-held belief in Umar's potential and his superior striking, range control, and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Merab's legendary cardio and pressure as major threats, but questions whether Merab can impose his physicality and wrestling on Umar, who is a strong wrestler himself. James notes Umar's lack of adversity faced as a concern, but credits his skill for avoiding trouble. He sees Umar having finishing upside via submission or back takes, while Merab's path likely relies on pace and volume in later rounds.

The host thinks Dvalishvili is up against it coming back quickly after winning the title in September. He believes Nurmagomedov will stifle Dvalishvili's high activity, stop takedowns, land better output, and possibly knock him down. He expects Nurmagomedov to win on the scorecards and become the new champion.

Paul leans Umar but is not confident due to the price. He acknowledges Merab's skills but believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior. Paul notes that Merab's takedown-heavy style may not work against a wrestler of Umar's caliber, and that Merab has been taken down before. However, he also points out that Umar hasn't fought elite competition and the line is too high, making Merab a value play.

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by TKO in round two or three. He believes Umar is more dynamic on the feet with better finishing potential, and can stuff Merab's takedowns. He expects Umar to land a question mark kick or front kick for a KO. He also notes Merab's age and quick turnaround may be factors.

Angelo picks Nurmagomedov because of his elite wrestling and chain takedowns. He notes Sandhagen has been taken down by everyone who tried, and despite being more well-rounded, he doesn't see Sandhagen defending the takedowns. He expects Nurmagomedov to cruise to a decision.

Big Brady believes Umar is a future champion and that this is a winnable stylistic matchup. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense has improved but is still suspect, and Umar should have no problem taking the fight to the ground and controlling it. He predicts Umar wins by decision, acknowledging Sandhagen is being disrespected by the odds.

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his wrestling and top control as key advantages. He notes that Umar is a 28-year-old Russian talent with solid top pressure and positional soundness, though his wrestling isn't as dominant as Khabib's. Cody believes Umar will use takedowns to neutralize Sandhagen's striking and win a unanimous decision. He acknowledges the line is wide but trusts the Dagestani game plan.

Daniel is torn on this fight. He acknowledges Umar's undefeated record and the Dagestani mystique, especially in Abu Dhabi, but questions his level of competition. He notes Sandhagen's elite resume and improvements since the Yan loss, including increased takedown attempts. Ultimately, he reluctantly picks Umar due to the location and potential, but admits he has no clear read and considers it a dog or pass from a betting perspective.

Nurmagomedov's overall skill set will allow him to stay away from Sandhagen's unorthodox striking. He will eventually resort to wrestling, keeping Sandhagen on his back and grinding out a decision win.

Paul picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his wrestling and the fact that Sandhagen has struggled against elite grapplers. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense has improved but there are levels, and Umar's striking is also coming along. Paul expects Umar to mix in takedowns and control the fight, similar to what Belal Muhammad does. He mentions the line is wide but still sides with Umar.

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, acknowledging Bekzat Almakhan is a very good fighter but believes Umar's wrestling and kicking range will be the difference. He notes the odds are too high to bet on Umar at -900, removing any temptation to bet.

Big Brady picks Umar to finish Almakhan in the second round by submission. He notes Umar is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling—and has fought much better competition. He thinks Almakhan is a solid fighter but is outmatched. He calls Umar a -1200 favorite and expects a finish.

Cody also picks Umar, noting that Almakhan is a sacrificial lamb brought in to lose. He compares Almakhan to other undefeated regional fighters who struggle in the UFC, like Azat Maksum. Cody believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior and that Almakhan's only path to victory is a freak accident or foul. He calls it a squash match.

Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent wrestling and striking, but Almakhan is a legitimate regional champion with improving skills. The host expects Nurmagomedov to win by decision rather than finish, as Almakhan is more disciplined than in his sole loss. The over 1.5 rounds is too chalky at -200, but Nurmagomedov by decision prop could offer plus money. The host advises against parlaying the -1050 moneyline.

Paul picks Umar confidently, calling him a future champion. He notes that Almakhan is a short-notice replacement with a padded record and that Umar is levels above. He mentions that Almakhan is well-rounded but not elite in any area, and Umar should dominate everywhere. He acknowledges the minus-1000 price is prohibitive for straight bets but sees Umar as a safe parlay piece.

Angelo picks Umar but criticizes the -950 odds as absurd. He believes Umar's relentless wrestling will eventually get takedowns despite Barcelos' excellent takedown defense. He thinks Barcelos is more well-rounded and dangerous, but Umar's pressure wins a decision. He advises not betting at these odds.

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently despite the steep odds, calling Barcelos 'not a bum' but noting signs of decline at 35. He believes Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be the toughest test Barcelos has faced, and that he can get the fight to the mat and control him. He expects Nurmagomedov to grind out a decision, as Barcelos has good submission defense and durability. He also notes that Nurmagomedov has competitive striking and flashy kicks, but the grappling advantage should be decisive.

Cody picks Umar but acknowledges Barcelos' takedown defense and wrestling credentials. He thinks Umar will get takedowns and win a decision, and likes the 'Umar by decision' prop at -200. He also mentions Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Connor picks Barcelos because he has excellent takedown defense (95% in the UFC) and is a good striker with power and speed. He notes that Nurmagomedov's wrestling may not be as effective against Barcelos, and that Nurmagomedov's striking lacks depth and consistency. Connor also points out that Barcelos has shown he can compete with wrestlers and that Nurmagomedov hasn't faced significant pushback. He acknowledges the coaching change for Nurmagomedov as a potential factor.

Jacob picks Umar but calls the line disrespectful to Barcelos. He notes Barcelos' elite takedown defense and striking, but thinks Umar's chain wrestling will eventually win. He warns that if Umar's first takedown is stuffed, bettors should sweat. He has a separate bet on the fight for premium members.

Paul is confident in Umar, calling him the future champion. He notes Umar's striking accuracy and wrestling pedigree, and believes he will win easily. He already parlayed Umar with Ige and Rębecki at -500. He also likes Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov but expects Nate Maness to earn respect. He acknowledges Maness is not an easy takedown and has solid submissions and power, but believes Umar's wrestling will ultimately prevail. He thinks Maness is much better than the odds suggest but still sees Umar wrestling his way to a win.

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, citing Umar's elite wrestling, grappling, and striking (question mark kick). He notes Maness's poor grappling defense (almost finished by Johnny Munoz) and that Umar has finished both Morozov and Kelleher via submission. He thinks once Umar gets a takedown, he will take Maness's back and submit him. He says the -1200 odds are not warranted but it's hard to make a case for Maness.

Cody agrees, noting Maness has been lucky in his UFC wins and has faced adversity. He thinks Umar's skills are superior everywhere and he will finish Maness. He also likes Umar inside the distance.

Paul is high on Umar, calling him amazing and a future problem for the division. He thinks Maness is not a real threat and that Umar will finish him. He recommends Umar inside the distance at -150, and also mentions Umar by TKO at +400-+500 as a value prop.

Angelo picks Umar confidently, calling him a clear pick and a parlay piece. He highlights Umar's fantastic chain wrestling and constant pressure. He notes Kelleher doesn't have one-punch KO power, so even if Umar is hittable, it won't matter. He mentions the betting line movement favoring Umar.

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by submission in the second round. He is very high on Umar's skills, noting his fast striking, good wrestling, and scrambling ability. Brady points out that Kelleher has been submitted six times and has poor takedown defense (60%). He believes Umar will be able to take Kelleher down and submit him, especially given Kelleher's tendency to give up takedowns and go for guillotines. Brady also notes Umar's youth and potential for improvement.

Cody is extremely high on Umar, calling him a future champion. He praises Umar's striking, takedown entries, and pace. He bet the under 2.5 rounds at +130, expecting an early finish. Cody notes Kelleher's only path is a guillotine, but Umar is too well-rounded and will dominate everywhere.

Daniel Levi picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He praises Umar's kicking game and grappling, and believes Kelleher will be outmatched. He notes that Kelleher is a tough veteran but Umar is too much. He predicts Umar will win a decision, possibly a dominant one.

Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent striking and grappling. Kelleher's only path is a knockout, but Nurmagomedov will use his kicks to maintain distance and then take the fight to the ground where he is dominant. Kelleher is durable and has good submission defense, but Nurmagomedov should control the fight and win a decision. The minus 675 is too steep for parlays, but Nurmagomedov via decision is a solid prop.

Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, calling Umar the complete package with elite wrestling and striking. He notes Umar's performance against Sergey Morozov was dominant and his pace is relentless. Paul believes Kelleher's only chance is to catch Umar in a guillotine, but Umar is too skilled. He plans to include Umar in a parlay with Colby.

Big Brady acknowledges that Sergey Morozov is a solid fighter but believes Umar Nurmagomedov's takedowns and top control will be decisive. He notes that Morozov has been submitted and knocked out before, and that Nurmagomedov is very good at getting takedowns early. He predicts a decision win for Nurmagomedov, possibly 30-27, but calls the -550 line a bit crazy.

The host likes Umar's diverse kicking game and fluid stand-up, but is hesitant due to the steep -400 line and Umar being a UFC debutant. He thinks Umar's takedowns and ground control will lead to a decision win, but wants to see him against established UFC competition before betting heavily.