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Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 28
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Umar Nurmagomedov
3.86 SLpM
56.0% Str. Acc.
1.86 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
4.03 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
79.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Bekzat Almakhan
1.61 SLpM
34.0% Str. Acc.
3.73 SApM
36.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
41.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Umar Nurmagomedov
Moneyline
FanDuel -1200
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
BetRivers +138
Decision
BetWay +275
Bekzat Almakhan
Moneyline
BetRivers +850
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1800
Submission
DraftKings +4500
Decision
BetRivers +1700
Umar Nurmagomedov - Fight History
SCHED vs Song Yadong
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 34 of 72 47% 103 of 167 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:50
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 8 of 27 29% 28 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 9 of 19 47% 28 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:11
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 6 of 13 46% 56 of 81 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:05
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 0 of 1 0% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 34 of 72 47% 19 of 50 11 of 17 4 of 5 28 of 58 2 of 3 4 of 11
Deiveson Figueiredo 8 of 27 29% 4 of 18 4 of 8 0 of 1 7 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 11 4 of 6 2 of 2 7 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 6
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 of 6 0% 0 of 3 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 19 of 40 47% 12 of 28 5 of 9 2 of 3 18 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0
Deiveson Figueiredo 8 of 20 40% 4 of 14 4 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 6 of 13 46% 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 5
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Deiveson Figueiredo (138.5: Missed Weight) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-1450), Figueiredo (+850)

Round 1
One more catchweight contest sits on tonight’s lineup, as former flyweight kingpin Figueiredo (25-5-1, 14-5-1 UFC) blew past the 136-pound limit of his relatively new division by two and a half pounds. Like Perez before, Figueiredo will give up 25% of his purse. Nurmagomedov (19-1, 7-1 UFC) will gladly pocket that as he closes as a monumental betting favorite of -1600 or higher depending on the book, which could very well end the year as the widest discrepancy between fighters. Referee Herb Dean draws the charge for this pairing, one that opens up without a glove touch.
Nurmagomedov moves directly to the center of the Octagon and aims his low kick out to get his range. Figueiredo responds with a faked takedown attempt, and he hops back to avoid another leg kick. Nurmagomedov bounces back and forth on his heels switching stances, and he misses with a high kick. The Russian catches Figueiredo with a front kick to the chest, knocking him back but not appearing to otherwise harm him. Nurmagomedov calmly works his way in, with a kick aimed up high before he checks one coming back his direction. Figueiredo just misses on a big right hand, and he dodges a kick aimed at his face. The two crash together, and Nurmagomedov connects with a pair of short uppercuts on the inside that back “Daico” up. Nurmagomedov plants another front kick on the midsection to drive his man back.
Legs clash together when kicked at the same time, and Nurmagomedov just misses a front-leg high kick and shoots in for a double. Figueiredo defends with a guillotine choke to force the two back to their feet seconds later. Nurmagomedov sells out for a body lock and trip takedown, landing successfully in half guard to put Figueiredo flat on his back. Nurmagomedov smothers from above as Figueiredo drags him back to his closed guard, and Nurmagomedov promptly punches him to open it back up. They both swing at one another until the bell and a bit beyond, and it remains to be seen if Figueiredo connected with a single significant strike after the five-minute period.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves as the second round begins, and Nurmagomedov is quick to get his foot in Figueiredo’s face. Figueiredo tries to swing back with a right hand, but when he bounces back, his face shows his visible frustration. The Brazilian scores a right to the body, and he dodges a number of kicks that whiz past him. Nurmagomedov lands at the end of a high kick, and he hurls another from the other leg that Figueiredo catches and uses to put the Russian down. Nurmagomedov easily escapes from being stuck on his back, and they resume back in the center of the cage. Figueiredo ducks and works his way in, but Nurmagomedov reaches him first. Figueiredo loads up with a body kick, and the Russian bookends it with two kicks of his own to the abdomen. Figueiredo just leans back enough to evade a few high kicks, and he flashes a grin after one buzzes the tower.
Figueiredo has still yet to fully engage, and he prepares to defend a double-leg entry that he stuffs. Figueiredo keeps moving on the outside, backing away and not attacking with any thing of merit. They both land single punches, but in that similar stretch of time, Nurmagomedov has landed a few more before and after. Figueiredo grabs a kick from out of the air but cannot take the fight down this time. Nurmagomedov sets up a body lock with a one-one-two, and he grapples Figueiredo but cannot get him down. Figueiredo clips his foe with a right hand, and Nurmagomedov is surprised by the power that just hit him. Figueiredo sees that he has his man finally paying attention, and he loads up on a few more and scores them hard. Nurmagomedov hurls a few back, and he lands cleanly when he does, but is largely defending himself when the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 3
Nurmagomedov strikes first in the final frame with a front kick, and he tosses one from the other side to make Figueiredo defend it. Nurmagomedov blasts the body with a fierce kick, and he skims one off the red-dyed stripe of the Brazilian’s melon. Nurmagomedov slaps his foe with a light high kick, and Dean asks for more from the two. The Russian scores another head kick, and he channels it into a takedown. Figueiredo defends with his guillotine, but this time, Nurmagomedov easily slides out of it to establish himself on top. When landing some ground strikes, Nurmagomedov is warned for landing them to the back of the head.
Nurmagomedov embraces the grind, in Figueiredo’s closed guard with no need to advance. Precious seconds tick off the clock for the former flyweight champ, who is stuck flat with no answers as he gets pummeled with elbows. Figueiredo tries to use butterfly hooks to push off, but this only allows Nurmagomedov to pass to half. Fans shower the athletes with boos while Nurmagomedov further makes Figueiredo’s life miserable with his ground attack. When Nurmagomedov looks to pass, Figueiredo uses that motion against him to drag him back to the guard—but in doing so, keeps him trapped. Figueiredo is relegated to elbow strikes from his back to stay busy, and he explodes back up with seconds to go and throws so hard that he falls over again. When the match ends, they hug it out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Deiveson Figueiredo via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov with extreme confidence, calling minus 500 understated. He argues Umar is better in every aspect: striking, wrestling, speed, and strength. He questions how Figueiredo can win given his 57% takedown defense and lack of power. He believes Umar has way more paths to victory.

Umar Deongdov minus500 is somehow the deal of the card.
"Umar should go down as the biggest favorite in UFC history for this fight. ... Umar is going to win this fight. He has way more path to victory."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady sees this as a brutal matchup for Figueiredo, who is 38 and coming off a poor performance against Sandhagen. He expects Umar to take him down easily and submit him, likely by rear-naked choke in the second round. He notes Figueiredo's only chance is a guillotine or big shot, but both are unlikely.

Nurmagomedov by submission in round 2
"I just think Umar is going to style on him. So, I mean, yeah, minus500, it makes sense to me."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Umar's wrestling and Figueiredo's decline. He mentions Figueiredo's poor cardio and lack of activity, making Umar a strong favorite. Cody is not betting the money line but considers the over 2.5 rounds or Umar by decision as alternatives.

"I'm just going to attack it from like a over under standpoint. If I get like over two and a half or minus 180, probably would be able to find a better onmarket price than that."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor argues that Figueiredo has adapted well at bantamweight by slowing pace and relying on wrestling, but Umar is a superior wrestler and grappler who won't be outwrestled. He notes that Figueiredo's slow pace won't work against Umar's high volume of kicks and pressure, and that Figueiredo struggled on the ground against Corey Sandhagen. Connor believes the odds are disrespectful to Figueiredo, but still picks Umar confidently.

Odds comment: Umar opened at -800, now -1500; Figueiredo opened at +550, now +850. Connor says the odds are 'disrespectful' and that Figueiredo could sleep him or submit him.
"I mean even Mario Batista manage that Marab Batista is an insane scrambler. So that lane is kind of closed as it was for example when he fought Corey Sandhagen. It actually got chewed up on the ground."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Vreeland picks Umar Nurmagomedov to dominate. He notes that Umar is younger, taller, and a massive favorite. Vreeland respects Figueiredo's power and experience but believes Umar will outwork him and possibly secure a finish. He advises passing on betting due to the steep odds.

"I think Umar Nurmagamed comes out here dominates the legend Davis Figerettto and possibly secures himself another UFC title."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

James is confident in Nurmagomedov, citing his elite training camp with Islam Makhachev and Figueiredo's apparent lack of focus (posting guns and weightlifting). He predicts a submission win, possibly a rear-naked choke, and notes the odds reflect the disparity.

"I think Umar's going to take him down, rinse and repeat. He's going to stay on the outside for as long as he needs to be."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host is confident in Nurmagomedov, expecting him to take Figueiredo down and wear him out for a late finish. He notes Figueiredo's only chance is a puncher's shot or guillotine, but doubts he can outwrestle or outstrike Nurmagomedov. He finds the -500 line amusing but sees it as justified, predicting a third-round finish.

Nurmagomedov wins in round 3
"I'm expecting Nurmagamedov to work Figo to the ground uh slowly wear him down. I think he eventually gets that third round finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is not betting the money line due to the steep price. He believes Umar's wrestling and control will be too much for Figueiredo, who has declined at bantamweight. Paul notes Figueiredo's lack of cardio and recent performances, making Umar a safe pick for parlays.

"I think Umar takes him down. I think Umar will control. I think it'll be father's plan type of thing because why just stand at least early it will be."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov, noting his constant pressure and grappling advantage over Figueiredo's 'small moments'. He believes Umar will survive Figueiredo's tricks and finish him via TKO in round two.

TKO in round two
"I think in round two he'll finish him. I think this will be a round two finish from Umar Nekamemedov."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane agrees with Connor that Umar is the clear pick, emphasizing that Figueiredo's adjusted style of low output and wrestling won't work against Umar's wrestling and pressure. He notes that Umar will be happy to throw thousands of kicks from range and that Figueiredo's slow pace will be countered. Zane also comments on the odds being lopsided but still picks Umar.

Odds comment: Umar opened at -800, now -1500; Figueiredo opened at +550, now +850. Zane says the odds are 'silly' and that Figueiredo could still win.
"I mean like I will say this should be on the main card over Waldo Cortez Acosta Jack. Eric Lewis court Waldo Cortez Acosta should be the featured prelim. No question."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 32 of 54 59% 81 of 105 11 of 14 78% 0 0 10:46
Mario Bautista 1 20 of 54 37% 33 of 67 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 6 83% 32 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:37
Mario Bautista 0 1 of 1 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 21 57% 29 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Mario Bautista 1 9 of 28 32% 14 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 27 55% 20 of 32 7 of 9 77% 0 0 3:07
Mario Bautista 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 32 of 54 59% 24 of 44 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 44 2 of 2 7 of 8
Mario Bautista 20 of 54 37% 6 of 37 11 of 14 3 of 3 17 of 50 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 6
Mario Bautista 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 21 57% 10 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mario Bautista 9 of 28 32% 3 of 19 4 of 7 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 15 of 27 55% 9 of 20 4 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Mario Bautista 10 of 25 40% 3 of 18 6 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-535), Bautista (+400)

Round 1
Fresh off his first career loss—a decision to champ Merab Dvalishvili—Nurmagomedov (18-1, 6-1 UFC) may not have the unbeaten shine of his brother Usman or cousin Khabib any longer, but at 29 years of age he still should have plenty left to give. He looks for a bounce-back performance against Bautista (16-2, 10-2 UFC), a tricky MMA Lab export that has already played spoiler to two recent high-profile adversaries in Jose Aldo and Patrick Mix. Can the wiry bantamweight pull off yet another upset? Referee Jason Herzog will be there for it every step of the way, including the initial fist bump.
Bautista bounces in and out, and he delivers an introductory body kick that lands with a concussive thud. Nurmagomedov snatches the limb out of the air and wrangles the MMA Lab fighter to the mat. Bautista scrambles to work his way up, and Nurmagomedov violently mat returns him. Bautista flips over to grip hold of the Russian’s left ankle, and he uses it as a possible toe hold-slash-ankle lock to crank it as hard as he can. Nurmagomedov toughs out the submission and keeps moving, preventing his foot from getting locked up or ripped off, and he establishes himself in side control. Nurmagomedov settles himself down and works on Bautista with short left hands, and Bautista’s scramble is active as can be. Nurmagomedov wraps his arm around the back of the head to keep Bautista on the floor, bowling him back over with his shoulder.
Bautista stays busy moving, bucking and shifting, and Nurmagomedov deftly stifles it all and imposes his will. The massive betting favorite shimmies over to get to the side, and he racks Bautista up with an elbow that forces an immediate change of position. Bautista bucks all the way to get to his knees and stand, and Nurmagomedov clings to him from behind with the body triangle affixed to fully control the Arizona native. Nurmagomedov works with his free right hand to soften Bautista up on the side of his melon, and he hand-fights to get his right arm free to set something up. Nurmagomedov readjusts his body lock around the waist, and Bautista turns his trunk towards the fence so he takes away the choking leverage of his adversary. Nurmagomedov happily maintains control and bops Bautista any time he can until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up and start kicking at one another. Bautista times a picture-perfect knee while Nurmagomedov is ducking, and he sends the Russian crashing to the canvas. Nurmagomedov blinks it out and goes after a takedown. Bautista backs him off and times a body shot, but Nurmagomedov is a man possessed and secures the takedown he was seeking before. The once-beaten fighter positions himself in half guard while wrapping his arms around the side of his opponent’s head, and Bautista willingly gives up his back so he can try to escape. Like before, Nurmagomedov snatches up back control and the body triangle. Bautista fights to one side and makes Nurmagomedov adjust to the other with his legs, so the MMA Lab product quickly twists to the other to roll to his knees. Nurmagomedov follows him, arms still wrapped around Bautista from behind, and Bautista scrambles and hits a brilliant switch to put Nurmagomedov on his seat.
Bautista stands back, lets Nurmagomedov stand up and wings a big right hand. Nurmagomedov counters with his own right hook, so Bautista walks him down and shoots for a takedown. They clack heads together when Bautista was aiming for a shoulder strike, and Nurmagomedov follows through and puts the underdog flat on his back. Nurmagomedov easily climbs over to side control, using his shoulder to press on Bautista’s face. Nurmagomedov follows a turning Bautista to secure his back, but Bautista still manages to get all the way around and back to his feet. With 35 seconds to go in the round, Nurmagomedov boots his man in the stomach. Bautista sticks out a jab and is countered, but he fires back and stuns the Russian for a moment. Nurmagomedov kicks him upside the head, and Bautista responds with a pair of body kicks.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 3
The touch of gloves is a swift one, as Bautista senses the scores could be tied or he could be down on the scorecards, and he answers the bell accordingly. Racing right at the Russian with punches, he sets up a head kick that just misses. Nurmagomedov races a left hand at him, but it is his follow-up head kick that gets Bautista’s attention even though it only partially connects. Bautista delivers a body kick, and Nurmagomedov fires back with two low kicks and a couple punches up top. The bantamweights bang their heads together again when advancing, and Nurmagomedov recovers just the quicker and pursues a level change. Bautista defends until he gets taken down, and he muscles his way back up with the wall at his side. Nurmagomedov goes for the takedown from behind, allowing Bautista to turn so he can knee him in the stomach. Nurmagomedov isolates a single and puts the MMA Lab fighter on the canvas, but only for a second before Bautista is upright once more.
The midpoint of the round is reached, and Bautista scores a pair of punches and is met with a brisk takedown that sweeps him off his feet. Nurmagomedov cannot control him on the mat, so he settles for pushing the Arizonan against the wall. Bautista rolls all the way through to escape, only for Nurmagomedov to smother him on the canvas and keep him grounded. Nurmagomedov knees his man in the side and steps over to three-quarter mount, so Bautista twists himself about. Nurmagomedov chains submissions and mat returns when able, and Bautista fights valiantly and nobly but is still being controlled with the grappling game of the Russian. Nurmagomedov goes for a single, and he runs Bautista from one end of the wall to the other to drive him back down. Official takedown numbers may be high even if control time is not nearly as substantial as it was in the previous match involving the heavyweights, and Bautista is fighting with all his might to free himself. With 13 seconds to go, he does, and he proceeds to bang it out with the Russian with swinging fists and looping high kicks. Nurmagomedov walks off and raises his arms before time expires, and the two reach the final horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Mario Bautista via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.

Minus 420, he'll probably look it.
"Umar's going to be the pick. I don't think Mario's going to get away with that random forward or cage control pressure. ... It's three rounds, Umar wins this fight. Minus 420, he'll probably look it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.

Umar by second round submission
"I think Umar Nurmagomedov is going to take down Bautista and finish him here on the mat. Give me Umar Nurmagomedov to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.

"I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.

"So picking new, uh, Nirmagamad off, but that, you know, VOC should be recognizing stuff like this from what it is, uh, Umar is a huge favorite."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.

wins by decision
"I'm going to go Umar Nurmagomedov to win this decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.

30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission
"I think it's a 3027 or a submission rear naked choke win from Uma. I think it's a confident win here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.

small shot on Bautista for some people
"I don't mind a small shot on Bautista for some people, but as an official prediction, I'm going to go Nurmagamedov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.

"I don't love the line. I don't love the line. But I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.

mentioned in a PrizePicks parlay for more than 2.5 total rounds
"I've got Umar dragging him down against the cage, knee to the thigh, one hook in, maybe gets the back at the end of one of the rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.

Umar by decision or submission
"In three rounds, I really do just have to pick Umar. Whether it's Batista taking time to cool down or taking time to heat up. I think either way, it spells disaster for Batista."
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 111 of 259 42% 142 of 293 7 of 30 23% 0 0 2:22
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 104 of 237 43% 113 of 246 2 of 15 13% 0 0 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 20 of 47 42% 21 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 49 36% 18 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 20 of 49 40% 27 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 25 of 47 53% 26 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:48
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 54 38% 25 of 58 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:07
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 22 of 48 45% 25 of 51 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:43
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 36 of 70 51% 48 of 82 4 of 9 44% 0 0 1:05
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 21 of 47 44% 26 of 52 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:04
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 14 of 39 35% 21 of 47 2 of 12 16% 0 0 0:53
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 111 of 259 42% 71 of 207 30 of 37 10 of 15 88 of 219 22 of 37 1 of 3
Umar Nurmagomedov 104 of 237 43% 76 of 199 22 of 30 6 of 8 92 of 219 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 20 of 47 42% 10 of 35 6 of 6 4 of 6 13 of 39 7 of 8 0 of 0
Umar Nurmagomedov 18 of 49 36% 11 of 38 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 7 of 10 1 of 2 15 of 38 5 of 10 0 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 25 of 47 53% 18 of 38 6 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 37 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 54 38% 14 of 43 5 of 7 2 of 4 17 of 49 3 of 4 1 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 22 of 48 45% 17 of 40 2 of 3 3 of 5 20 of 43 2 of 5 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 36 of 70 51% 25 of 57 10 of 12 1 of 1 31 of 58 5 of 11 0 of 1
Umar Nurmagomedov 21 of 47 44% 18 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 14 of 39 35% 10 of 35 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
Umar Nurmagomedov 18 of 46 39% 12 of 39 5 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his superior wrestling and striking compared to Merab Dvalishvili. He believes Umar's kicks and range management will keep Merab at bay, and his scramble skills will neutralize Merab's takedown attempts. He notes that Merab's cardio is a factor but thinks Umar's overall skills will win out.

"Umar is going to be the pick I will kind of warn you here minus 325 I mean it's a bit disrespectful to morab"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov but is hesitant due to the price. He believes Umar has the style to beat Merab, with superior wrestling and striking, and can thwart takedowns. However, he notes Merab's incredible pace and durability, and that Umar's line is too high. Cody also points out that Merab has been taken down before and struggles off his back, but Umar's lack of top competition and the value on Merab give him pause.

Mentions he took Merab at +175 earlier and is surprised at the line movement. No specific prop bet.
"I think it's a little bit too much too much Steam on the the Naga mov side here the dogger pass situation for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his excellent boxing, jab, and ability to maintain range. He notes that Umar has faced similar pressure fighters before (like Cody Stamann and Raoni Barcelos) and shut them down with his positional striking. Connor warns that Merab's unique cardio and pace make him dangerous, but Umar's technical striking and takedown defense should allow him to win rounds. He also points out that Umar cannot afford to make the same mistakes he made against Cory Sandhagen, where he took risky scrambles. Connor believes Umar's game plan of using the jab and staying at range is the key to beating Merab.

Odds opened at -246, now -338; Merab opened +211, now +280. Connor thinks the line is too wide in Umar's favor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Umar but is hesitant, acknowledging Merab's proven ability to make great fighters look human. He notes Umar's striking edge and length, and believes the grappling will neutralize itself. However, he is concerned about Merab's pace and toughness, and mentions that Merab has been hurt on the feet before. Daniel ultimately goes with Umar to become the new champion but says he is not betting on the fight.

Daniel says he is not betting on this fight, calling it a pass. He mentions that Umar is favored at -350 and Merab at +275.
"I'm actually going to go with Umar to be the new UFC bantamweight champion but from a betting perspective I can understand why someone would call this a doger pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov to become champion, citing his long-held belief in Umar's potential and his superior striking, range control, and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Merab's legendary cardio and pressure as major threats, but questions whether Merab can impose his physicality and wrestling on Umar, who is a strong wrestler himself. James notes Umar's lack of adversity faced as a concern, but credits his skill for avoiding trouble. He sees Umar having finishing upside via submission or back takes, while Merab's path likely relies on pace and volume in later rounds.

May look at a point spread for Merab to win one or two rounds
"I'm gonna say um magedov becomes Champion I've believed in him from when he had his UFC debut"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Dvalishvili is up against it coming back quickly after winning the title in September. He believes Nurmagomedov will stifle Dvalishvili's high activity, stop takedowns, land better output, and possibly knock him down. He expects Nurmagomedov to win on the scorecards and become the new champion.

"I think nag gamov will do a good job in terms of stifling the high activity game of dval stopping the takedowns Landing the better output maybe even Landing big enough shots to knock down dval fi but I think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is not confident due to the price. He acknowledges Merab's skills but believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior. Paul notes that Merab's takedown-heavy style may not work against a wrestler of Umar's caliber, and that Merab has been taken down before. However, he also points out that Umar hasn't fought elite competition and the line is too high, making Merab a value play.

Mentions that if Umar can mix in his own offensive wrestling and take Merab down, it changes the dynamic. No specific prop.
"I eventually ended up on the Nam magov side yeah that's fair"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by TKO in round two or three. He believes Umar is more dynamic on the feet with better finishing potential, and can stuff Merab's takedowns. He expects Umar to land a question mark kick or front kick for a KO. He also notes Merab's age and quick turnaround may be factors.

TKO round 2-3
"I think umar's going to get a question mark kick KO over morab deash that's my prediction I think he'll finish him in round two or three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane also picks Umar, agreeing with Connor's reasoning. He highlights Umar's excellent boxing and jab, and his experience against pressure fighters. Zane notes that Merab's lack of a range striking game is a major weakness, and Umar has the tools to exploit it. He cautions that Merab's cardio and relentless pace make him dangerous, but Umar's ability to keep the fight at range and stuff takedowns should give him the edge. Zane also mentions that the odds are too wide, but he still believes Umar is the right pick.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm picking Umar Nurmagomedov off here."
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 71 of 159 44% 80 of 172 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Cory Sandhagen 0 98 of 187 52% 123 of 219 5 of 13 38% 0 0 5:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 17 of 34 50% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:39
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 16 of 32 50% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Cory Sandhagen 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:55
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 17 of 27 62% 20 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:25
4 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 30 of 65 46% 32 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
5 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 6 of 10 60% 11 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 12 of 25 48% 32 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 71 of 159 44% 26 of 94 18 of 32 27 of 33 71 of 158 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 98 of 187 52% 48 of 124 27 of 39 23 of 24 96 of 182 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 17 of 34 50% 4 of 16 4 of 7 9 of 11 17 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 15 of 28 53% 8 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 16 of 32 50% 6 of 16 4 of 9 6 of 7 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 24 of 42 57% 11 of 27 7 of 9 6 of 6 23 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 30 40% 2 of 13 2 of 7 8 of 10 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 17 of 27 62% 2 of 6 7 of 13 8 of 8 17 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Umar Nurmagomedov 20 of 53 37% 11 of 43 7 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 30 of 65 46% 21 of 55 5 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Umar Nurmagomedov 6 of 10 60% 3 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 12 of 25 48% 6 of 18 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-305), Sandhagen (+245)

Round 1
When the dust settles and a maximum of 25 minutes elapses, a bantamweight title challenger will almost certainly emerge. Having never vied for the undisputed throne, Sandhagen (17-4, 10-3 UFC) wants to prove the naysayers wrong and hand Nurmagomedov (17-0, 5-0 UFC) his first pro defeat. While a large step up in competition for the Russian, bettors largely favor him to get his hand raised. Referee Marc Goddard will handle the particulars for the next five rounds or fewer, and he brings the two combatants to the center of the cage to formally touch gloves and initiate the proceedings. Sandhagen darts in and continually pulls back, keeping out of range of a head kick or two that comes at him. They trade leg kicks, and Nurmagomedov shoots in for a single. Dragging Sandhagen to the mat for a moment, Nurmagomedov manages to take the back but Sandhagen is able to wriggle away and get back to the middle of the cage. Nurmagomedov reaches him with a one-two, and Sandhagen kicks him hard on the lead leg. Nurmagomedov tries to catch it, and he abandons it to launch a head kick that bounces off the shoulder. Sandhagen scores a right hand and a low kick, and he reaches the midsection with a long right hand before bouncing away from a kick. Nurmagomedov attacks a single, and Sandhagen hops on the other leg and slashes with an elbow before fighting it off. Sandhagen wings a left hook that buzzes past his foe, and he hops forward with a jab. Sandhagen connects with a head kick, and the foot brushes the cup and Sandhagen stops to make sure Nurmagomedov is ok. He is. Leg kicks fly from both sides, with Sandhagen adding more and tripping Nurmagomedov up. Nurmagomedov falls on his side awkwardly, and he bounces back up while Sandhagen gives chase. Nurmagomedov counters a leg kick with a hard left over the top, and he eats a swiping left hook. Nurmagomedov strikes, slips and escapes, but Sandhagen follows him and hammers him with a kick on the calf. Nurmagomedov fakes an entry on a takedown, and he sticks his man, gets countered and lands a heavy leg kick. Front kicks from both men connect, and Sandhagen jumps forward with a switch kick that hits the body. Nurmagomedov ducks a punch and hits a takedown, allowing Sandhagen to scramble so he can take the back. They get tangled up like 135-pound pretzels, and Sandhagen smacks him with a few hammerfists until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sandhagen

Round 2
Sandhagen strides out of his corner stopping before a front kick can reach him, but in range so that his front leg gets kicked. Sandhagen kicks him back and defends a single, sprawling effectively while pushing on the back of his foe’s head. Nurmagomedov turns the corner and grabs hold of Sandhagen from behind, and Sandhagen works his way to the fence to lean on it. Nurmagomedov knees him on the break, and when they reset, Sandhagen snaps his head to the side with a left hook. Nurmagomedov misses with a head kick and eats a jab, and he tries to reach the target with a one-two that comes up short. Sandhagen lands a thudding left hand and gets countered tossing out a leg kick with a left to the chest. Sandhagen jumps forward but pulls back from the knee as Nurmagomedov wants to catch him, and a volley of low kicks soon flies. Sandhagen chops down the front leg, prompting a stance switch, and Nurmagomedov lunges with a body shot. They take turns kicking one another in the calf and launching one-twos, and alternating kicks are released. Nurmagomedov slaps Sandhagen in the face with the instep of his foot, and Sandhagen does not register the blow and boots Nurmagomedov upside the head with his own kick. Sandhagen eats a right and responds with a left, and he jabs and tries to parry a front kick aimed at his nose. Sandhagen connects with a low kick, and the Russian is ready and willing to counter with a left over the top. The punches from Nurmagomedov have opened a cut on the eyebrow of his opponent, and Nurmagomedov attempts a takedown and manages to take Sandhagen to his seat. Nurmagomedov tries to take the back and is warned for grabbing inside the gloves, and he gets hold of Sandhagen’s back and locks down a brief crucifix. Nurmagomedov flirts with a choke for a second, but Sandhagen explodes to his feet and spins around. Nurmagomedov trips him to the floor, and Sandhagen gets up and lands a front kick before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 3
Leading the dance again is Sandhagen, who makes the Russian back away courtesy of his measuring jab. Nurmagomedov slaps a kick beneath the armpit of his foe, and his front leg gets kicked in response. Nurmagomedov scores a calf kick, and Sandhagen switches stances and engages. The kicks from “The Sandman” are getting the attention of the unbeaten fighter, who is raising his leg preemptively when not trying to catch them. Nurmagomedov kicks the front leg and whiffs on a head kick, and Sandhagen kicks his foe’s raised limb. Nurmagomedov hammers another kick low, and he tries to check one flying back his direction. Sandhagen jabs his way in, but nothing follows it. Nurmagomedov brushes past the hair with a kick, and Sandhagen slams his shin on both sides. The two bantamweights remain at this snail’s pace for some time, both appearing to take the round off. Sandhagen kicks the calf and Nurmagomedov shoots for a takedown right after it, resulting in Sandhagen bouncing away and breaking the grip to escape. Leg kicks keep getting traded, and he blocks a body kick and pushes a front kick to the chest. Sandhagen jumps with a switch kick that lands to the body, and Nurmagomedov manages to kick him back to the side. Nurmagomedov jams a left hand to the breadbasket, and Sandhagen leaps into action with a punch and a kick. Nurmagomedov chases him around aiming body shots, and Sandhagen intercepts him with a knee. Nurmagomedov goes for a takedown, and as Sandhagen gives up his back to stand, Nurmagomedov gladly obliges to take it in the scramble, Sandhagen sits comfortably until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, and Sandhagen pushes the pace with several jabs and follow-up right hands. Nurmagomedov responds with a pair of high kicks, and both a get blocked. Nurmagomedov shovels a few uppercuts to the chin, and Sandhagen rushes after him with a short combination. Two hooks from Sandhagen miss the mark, and the third graces the chin. Sandhagen lands a clean left hook, and Nurmagomedov places two punches on the jaw. Sandhagen again scores his dipping hook, and then a third time. Nurmagomedov jabs and throws crosses, and Sandhagen reaches him at the end of a right hand. They are taking turns once again in engaging, and Sandhagen starts while Nurmagomedov ends these exchanges. Nurmagomedov lands a flush one-two, only to be met with a left from “The Sandman.” It cleanly catches his man again, prompting Nurmagomedov to string three punches back at him. Sandhagen hammers the body and is countered with a left hook, and he defends against a looping body shot. The Russian finds his home with a body kick, and Sandhagen clips him with an uppercut. They both trade heavy shots, and Nurmagomedov concludes the combo with a right before exiting. Sandhagen does wide with a high kick, and Nurmagomedov retaliates with a trio of fleet fists. Sandhagen scores a solid low kick, and he comes up just short with a front kick. Nurmagomedov ducks a punch to procure a takedown, and he succeeds in dragging Sandhagen to a knee from behind. Sandhagen rolls through and pushes off the fence, turning himself around but eating a few punches in the process. Sandhagen responds with his own double try before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 5
The first punch of the last round is scored by Sandhagen, with a left hook that he has find the last round or so. Sandhagen switches stances and delivers leg kicks, and he is shoved away by a front kick. Sandhagen chops down the lead wheel, and he blocks a body kick to lash out with a calf kick. Sandhagen shoots for a single, and he bails on it to go over the top with a left hook. Nurmagomedov shrugs it off and comes out swinging, with a right to the body and a missed right hook upstairs. Sandhagen goes after another single, with nothing on it. Sandhagen again tries a big overhand right, and Nurmagomedov is there to back him off with three crisp punches and a body kick. Sandhagen stands Nurmagomedov up with a right hand, but Nurmagomedov is quick to shake it off and coming back strong. Sandhagen dodges the front kick, and he is forced to defend a takedown attempt where the Russian takes him from behind and follows him while rolling. Sandhagen sets up a triangle choke when Nurmagomedov turns over to take top position, but Nurmagomedov works through it and establishes top control. Sandhagen looks to his corner for advice, and he rolls over to give his back up. Nurmagomedov gets a hook in and holds his leg over Sandhagen’s right arm, but Sandhagen’s scramble allows him to flip him around and attack a single. Nurmagomedov follows this roll with his own roll, and he sits on Sandhagen’s face before sliding around to establish half guard. Nurmagomedov clings to top position, cruising to a win while landing some occasional ground-and-pound. Nurmagomedov holds on, doing what he needs to do to get his hand raised. This is easily the biggest win in the career of the cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov, who is now a perfect 18-0 and likely the next man in line to face the winner of Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili. No matter who that ends up being, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (49-46 Nurmagomedov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (50-45 Nurmagomedov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (49-46 Nurmagomedov)

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Cory Sandhagen via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Nurmagomedov because of his elite wrestling and chain takedowns. He notes Sandhagen has been taken down by everyone who tried, and despite being more well-rounded, he doesn't see Sandhagen defending the takedowns. He expects Nurmagomedov to cruise to a decision.

"I think Umar just cruises here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady believes Umar is a future champion and that this is a winnable stylistic matchup. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense has improved but is still suspect, and Umar should have no problem taking the fight to the ground and controlling it. He predicts Umar wins by decision, acknowledging Sandhagen is being disrespected by the odds.

"I think Umar's going to have no problem getting this fight down to the ground and once Umar gets on top there's probably a really good chance he stays there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov, citing his wrestling and top control as key advantages. He notes that Umar is a 28-year-old Russian talent with solid top pressure and positional soundness, though his wrestling isn't as dominant as Khabib's. Cody believes Umar will use takedowns to neutralize Sandhagen's striking and win a unanimous decision. He acknowledges the line is wide but trusts the Dagestani game plan.

"I got to go with the OV greatness here and the Russian fighter to hopefully just land those takedowns get the control time and eventually get the unanimous decision Victory."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel is torn on this fight. He acknowledges Umar's undefeated record and the Dagestani mystique, especially in Abu Dhabi, but questions his level of competition. He notes Sandhagen's elite resume and improvements since the Yan loss, including increased takedown attempts. Ultimately, he reluctantly picks Umar due to the location and potential, but admits he has no clear read and considers it a dog or pass from a betting perspective.

"I'm gonna go Umar reluctantly but like Umar needs to prove it to me against this level of competition man he's never seen anything like this before"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov's overall skill set will allow him to stay away from Sandhagen's unorthodox striking. He will eventually resort to wrestling, keeping Sandhagen on his back and grinding out a decision win.

"I think Nag's overall skill site here will allow him to stay away from the dangers that the unorthodox striking approach of San Haagen poses and I think we'll see Naga made of eventually resort to his wrestling keeping San …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Umar Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his wrestling and the fact that Sandhagen has struggled against elite grapplers. He notes Sandhagen's takedown defense has improved but there are levels, and Umar's striking is also coming along. Paul expects Umar to mix in takedowns and control the fight, similar to what Belal Muhammad does. He mentions the line is wide but still sides with Umar.

"I think umar's uh about to uh come knocking tell tell suar Shan he's coming."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov over Cory Sandhagen, believing Sandhagen is too weak despite his technique. He thinks Umar's size and strength will allow him to hold Sandhagen down, especially in Abu Dhabi where standups are rare. He notes Sandhagen's lack of power and poor wrestling compared to Umar. He predicts a boring 49-46 decision for Umar.

decision
"I'm going to go with Umar I'm going to go with Umar sadly I like Cory sandhagen I just think he ain't got enough power"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 68 of 98 69% 145 of 197 5 of 5 100% 0 0 11:26
Bekzat Almakhan 1 3 of 16 18% 5 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 8 87% 43 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:21
Bekzat Almakhan 1 2 of 3 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 39 of 60 65% 52 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:06
Bekzat Almakhan 0 0 of 8 0% 0 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 22 of 30 73% 50 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:59
Bekzat Almakhan 0 1 of 5 20% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 68 of 98 69% 64 of 94 0 of 0 4 of 4 7 of 13 0 of 0 61 of 85
Bekzat Almakhan 3 of 16 18% 1 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 7 of 8 87% 6 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 7
Bekzat Almakhan 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 39 of 60 65% 38 of 59 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 36 of 53
Bekzat Almakhan 0 of 8 0% 0 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 22 of 30 73% 20 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 25
Bekzat Almakhan 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-1200), Almakhan (+750)

Round 1
There are plenty of questions coming into this bantamweight contest. Nurmagomedov (16-0, 4-0 UFC) is undefeated with four wins in the UFC including three stoppages, but he does not draw a ranked contender. Instead, he fights promotional newcomer Almakhan (11-1, 0-0 UFC), who has had quite a week himself. Previously billed at 17-1 by the UFC and other record keepers, after a Sherdog Fight Finder investigation, we learned that Almakhan actually celebrates 11 pro MMA wins and another 11 wins under bouts under modified rules similar to MMA. Whether the youngster from Kazakhstan can spring one of the bigger betting upsets in UFC history, referee Marc Goddard will be the first one to know. The -1600 favorite Nurmagomedov and +850 dog Almakhan touch gloves, and Almakhan moves to the center of the cage early. He releases a head kick, and is met with a low kick when that is blocked. Almakhan rips a kick to the body, and it comes close to hitting the cup so he offers an apology. Almakhan unloads a huge right hand that knocks Nurmagomedov to his seat, and he jumps after the unbeaten fighter to finish the job. Nurmagomedov desperately dives after a single, and he succeeds to get him down and eventually works his way to side control. Nurmagomedov slams down elbows from the position until Almakhan scrambles to his knees, and Nurmagomedov takes his back gets the hooks in. Almakhan squirms from one side to the other to try to escape, and Nurmagomedov softens him up with short punches. Nurmagomedov secures the body triangle briefly, and Almakhan breaks it up for a time. Almakhan hand-fights and turns to a side, but before he can escape, Nurmagomedov spins around and moves to top position. Nurmagomedov keeps heavy chest pressure when elbowing on top, marking up Almakhan’s nose. Nurmagomedov grinds with elbows until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get things started, and both men are tentative to engage. Almakhan keeps a safe distance, hopping away from a low kick, but not able to dodge a head kick. Almakhan overswings with a right hand, and Nurmagomedov shoots in with a perfectly timed takedown to put the youngster from Kazakhstan on his back. Nurmagomedov moves right into half guard, where he picks up with elbows until he hops to side control on the other side. Almakhan explodes his way upright suddenly, and when Nurmagomedov stands lazily, Almakhan blasts him with a high kick that might have been questionable. Nurmagomedov times a single-leg takedown and completes it with relative ease, and he sits up and starts elbowing as he moves into full mount. Almakhan bucks his hips, and he absorbs elbows on his face. Nurmagomedov lets go with punches and elbows, with a flurry that allows Almakhan to burst back to his feet. Nurmagomedov shoots from afar for a single, and Almakhan stops the first attempt but cannot stop Nurmagomedov from circling around to take his back and drag him down. Nurmagomedov moves right back into full mount, where he hacks down with elbows to bloody up Almakhan and lump him up. Nurmagomedov pummels his foe with punches, and Almakhan keeps his guard up to take the sting out of most of them before exploding once more to stand. Nurmagomedov thwarts this bucking and stays on him in side control, before he slithers around to take Almakhan’s back with 10 seconds to spare. Almakhan sits up as Nurmagomedov slugs him, and the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 3
A quick glove touch opens up the last round, and Almakhan hops back from a low kick before sprinting forward to deliver a head kick that skims past the unbeaten fighter’s head. Nurmagomedov sticks out a jab, and he eats a body shot and goes up high with a kick as Almakhan smiles at him. Almakhan goes wide with a booming right hand that nearly makes him fall to the ground, and Nurmagomedov shoots with an effortless single to put Almakhan on his back. Nurmagomedov scoots his way to half guard to strike with the point of his elbow, and his left hand similarly finds its home on Almakhan’s swelling face. Nurmagomedov continues bludgeoning the newcomer with open left hands, and he follows Almakhan as Almakhan butt-scoots his way to the fence. Almakhan turns to his side so he can get to his knees, and Nurmagomedov takes his back and flattens him out. Almakhan turns to his side, and Nurmagomedov lords over him in three-quarter mount, laying into him with unanswered punches. Almakhan sits up, and Nurmagomedov hops over to take his back again. Almakhan’s experience in mixed-rules fights may be working against him at this point, as he is used to 30-second mandatory standups while grappling, even with back control or other dominant positions that Nurmagomedov has imposed on him. Nurmagomedov slices into mount again and he jackhammers the Kazakhstani fighter with elbows. Nurmagomedov postures up and tries to finish the fight with relentless ground-and-pound, but the fight ends before he can secure a stoppage. When he stands up, Almakhan is busted and swollen all over, and he can barely put weight on his left leg in a real “welcome to the UFC” moment.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Bekzat Almakhan via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, acknowledging Bekzat Almakhan is a very good fighter but believes Umar's wrestling and kicking range will be the difference. He notes the odds are too high to bet on Umar at -900, removing any temptation to bet.

No bet due to extreme odds
"Umar is going to be the pick for sure these odds are kind of crazy umar's a minus 900 favorite and frankly I'm glad that he's a minus 900 favorite because that will remove any Temptation whatsoever to bet on …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar to finish Almakhan in the second round by submission. He notes Umar is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling—and has fought much better competition. He thinks Almakhan is a solid fighter but is outmatched. He calls Umar a -1200 favorite and expects a finish.

second round submission
"give me Umar naged up to go out there and finish vad here in the second round by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody also picks Umar, noting that Almakhan is a sacrificial lamb brought in to lose. He compares Almakhan to other undefeated regional fighters who struggle in the UFC, like Azat Maksum. Cody believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior and that Almakhan's only path to victory is a freak accident or foul. He calls it a squash match.

"Umar would have to get himself disqualified or hurt uh otherwise he's got him beat everywhere and it's a win-win situation for both guys"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent wrestling and striking, but Almakhan is a legitimate regional champion with improving skills. The host expects Nurmagomedov to win by decision rather than finish, as Almakhan is more disciplined than in his sole loss. The over 1.5 rounds is too chalky at -200, but Nurmagomedov by decision prop could offer plus money. The host advises against parlaying the -1050 moneyline.

Nurmagomedov by decision (prop), over 1.5 rounds considered but not recommended
"I'm going to take Naga mov and norov by decision I'll see what that prop is if we're getting solid enough plus money on it maybe I'll take a shot there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Umar confidently, calling him a future champion. He notes that Almakhan is a short-notice replacement with a padded record and that Umar is levels above. He mentions that Almakhan is well-rounded but not elite in any area, and Umar should dominate everywhere. He acknowledges the minus-1000 price is prohibitive for straight bets but sees Umar as a safe parlay piece.

"Umar keeps getting better obviously nobody wants the cousin Umar smoking for good reason... I think he beats everybody in this division so how could I not pick him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov, noting he is a massive bantamweight with strength and grappling advantages. He predicts Umar will get a takedown, take the back, and choke out Almakhan in round one. He sees a significant strength difference and believes Almakhan looks frail in comparison.

round 1 submission
"I think Umar is going to get a takedown... take the back and choke him out... round one submission Umar Nurmagomedov"
KO (body kick and punch) R1 4:40 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 1 36 of 51 70% 36 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Raoni Barcelos 0 13 of 24 54% 14 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 36 of 51 70% 36 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Raoni Barcelos 0 13 of 24 54% 14 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 36 of 51 70% 20 of 32 12 of 13 4 of 6 35 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 1
Raoni Barcelos 13 of 24 54% 6 of 17 5 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 36 of 51 70% 20 of 32 12 of 13 4 of 6 35 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 1
Raoni Barcelos 13 of 24 54% 6 of 17 5 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raoni Barcelos vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-610), Barcelos (+460)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with an important bantamweight tilt between an undefeated up-and-comer in Nurmagomedov (15-0, 3-0 UFC) and an aging but still dangerous Brazilian bomber Barcelos (17-3, 6-2 UFC), with a place in the top 15 on the line. The third man in the Octagon for this one is referee Jason Herzog, who clocks them in despite no touch of gloves. The two are tentative to begin, with 30 seconds of inactivity before Barcelos springs into action with a big right hand. Nurmagomedov shoulder-rolls it and changes stances, and he kicks with both legs. Barcelos sits down on a head kick, and the blocked impact echoes through the UFC Apex. Nurmagomedov looks to curl a right hand round the guard, and he plants a side kick on the breadbasket. Barcelos cuts him off while Nurmagomedov kicks away, and the Brazilian advances slowly and has a body kick connect. Nurmagomedov paws out front kicks like jabs, with the two fighting at safe kickboxing range. Barcelos kicks high and then to the body, and Nurmagomedov answers with one to the ribs of his own. The Brazilian catches his man with a quick right hand, and he crashes forward with two looping shots. Nurmagomedov counters to back him off, and he fires off a head kick that gets blocked. Barcelos defends it and swings a hammer, and Nurmagomedov barely avoids it. When they come together, they clack heads, and Barcelos appears to ask him not to do this. Barcelos shrugs off a pair of front kicks so that he can loose a kick to the side, and he takes a flush jab on the way in. Nurmagomedov chips away with kicks from both legs, and a left hand stuns Barcelos momentarily. Barcelos gathers his wits and continues to advance, throwing so hard that he crashes into the wall and ricochets off it. Nurmagomedov resettles for a small bouquet of kicks as Barcelos advances again.
The Russian lifts his knee up and turns it into a body kick, and he unloads a left hand on the same side to completely separate Barcelos from his consciousness. The Brazilian falls lifelessly to the mat on his back, with the back of his head clattering on the floor, and Nurmagomedov gives chase to drop down one single destructive hammerfist.
Realizing that his opponent is astral traveling, Nurmagomedov pulls back from any further damage, and actually puts his hand on the top of Barcelos' head to check on him like a mother and her child. Herzog sees that this fight is over, and he pulls Nurmagomedov off of the dozing Barcelos. Nurmagomedov appears genuinely concerned for his fallen opponent, and he confirms this by apologizing for destroying him in the post-fight interview. For only the second time of his career, Nurmagomedov has knocked an opponent out, and he is now a flawless 16-0 as a pro.

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Raoni Barcelos R1 4:40 via KO (Body Kick and Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar but criticizes the -950 odds as absurd. He believes Umar's relentless wrestling will eventually get takedowns despite Barcelos' excellent takedown defense. He thinks Barcelos is more well-rounded and dangerous, but Umar's pressure wins a decision. He advises not betting at these odds.

"I think Umar wins this fight ... I do not think he's gonna look like a minus 950 doing it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently despite the steep odds, calling Barcelos 'not a bum' but noting signs of decline at 35. He believes Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be the toughest test Barcelos has faced, and that he can get the fight to the mat and control him. He expects Nurmagomedov to grind out a decision, as Barcelos has good submission defense and durability. He also notes that Nurmagomedov has competitive striking and flashy kicks, but the grappling advantage should be decisive.

Nurmagomedov by decision
"I'm gonna say normange gets this done I'll say bye decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar but acknowledges Barcelos' takedown defense and wrestling credentials. He thinks Umar will get takedowns and win a decision, and likes the 'Umar by decision' prop at -200. He also mentions Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Umar by decision at -200; Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I honestly think by decision um made of super talented don't get me wrong but he'll have to work a lot harder in this fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Connor picks Barcelos because he has excellent takedown defense (95% in the UFC) and is a good striker with power and speed. He notes that Nurmagomedov's wrestling may not be as effective against Barcelos, and that Nurmagomedov's striking lacks depth and consistency. Connor also points out that Barcelos has shown he can compete with wrestlers and that Nurmagomedov hasn't faced significant pushback. He acknowledges the coaching change for Nurmagomedov as a potential factor.

Odds: Nurmagomedov opened -200, dropped to -495, currently -889. Barcelos opened +170, jumped to +385, currently +592. Connor thinks the odds are absurd and that Barcelos is a top-15 bantamweight.
"I'm going to pick Barcelos here because I have yet to see anybody succeed at all against him in the wrestling and it's not the wrestling that has me concerned."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Jacob picks Umar but calls the line disrespectful to Barcelos. He notes Barcelos' elite takedown defense and striking, but thinks Umar's chain wrestling will eventually win. He warns that if Umar's first takedown is stuffed, bettors should sweat. He has a separate bet on the fight for premium members.

Has a bet on the fight for premium members
"I think Umar wins but let's put some respect on honey man"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul is confident in Umar, calling him the future champion. He notes Umar's striking accuracy and wrestling pedigree, and believes he will win easily. He already parlayed Umar with Ige and Rębecki at -500. He also likes Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks; parlayed with Ige and Rębecki at +167
"umar's gonna win he's probably gonna make it look easy"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov because he believes the wrestling will be a factor and that Barcelos has trouble creating pace when his opponent succeeds with volume. He notes that Nurmagomedov's variety and pace could overwhelm Barcelos, who struggles to match high output. Zane also points out that Barcelos has failed when his wrestling game isn't working, while Nurmagomedov hasn't been tested in that way. He acknowledges the risk but leans on the 'prove it' side.

Odds: Nurmagomedov opened -200, dropped to -495, currently -889. Barcelos opened +170, jumped to +385, currently +592. Zane thinks the odds are absurd but still picks Nurmagomedov.
"I am going to settle on as I usually do the the prove it side where I'm just like I don't yet have any reason to think like the other thing here is that I wouldn't have picked a single …"
WIN vs Nate Maness
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–26, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 20 10% 46 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 74 of 100 74% 128 of 161 3 of 4 75% 0 0 10:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 10 10% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 18 of 21 85% 40 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:29
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 0 of 1 0% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 21 of 31 67% 32 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 9 11% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 35 of 48 72% 56 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 2 of 20 10% 1 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 74 of 100 74% 60 of 79 10 of 15 4 of 6 17 of 33 0 of 0 57 of 67
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 10 10% 0 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 18 of 21 85% 17 of 17 0 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 14
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 21 of 31 67% 18 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 26
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 35 of 48 72% 25 of 35 7 of 9 3 of 4 12 of 21 0 of 0 23 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov but expects Nate Maness to earn respect. He acknowledges Maness is not an easy takedown and has solid submissions and power, but believes Umar's wrestling will ultimately prevail. He thinks Maness is much better than the odds suggest but still sees Umar wrestling his way to a win.

"i am still going to pick namga madoff here i don't think this is like the first round destruction that everybody thinks it's going to be"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, citing Umar's elite wrestling, grappling, and striking (question mark kick). He notes Maness's poor grappling defense (almost finished by Johnny Munoz) and that Umar has finished both Morozov and Kelleher via submission. He thinks once Umar gets a takedown, he will take Maness's back and submit him. He says the -1200 odds are not warranted but it's hard to make a case for Maness.

Umar wins by submission in round 1
"i like umar here i think he takes him down and once he does get him down i think it takes vanessa's back and i don't think he's surviving after that so give me uh umar manga met off first …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody agrees, noting Maness has been lucky in his UFC wins and has faced adversity. He thinks Umar's skills are superior everywhere and he will finish Maness. He also likes Umar inside the distance.

"i'm agreeing with you inside the distance nine to one's a huge price tag because everybody's darling this week and the inside the distance would definitely help you"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul is high on Umar, calling him amazing and a future problem for the division. He thinks Maness is not a real threat and that Umar will finish him. He recommends Umar inside the distance at -150, and also mentions Umar by TKO at +400-+500 as a value prop.

Umar inside the distance -150 at DraftKings; Umar by TKO +400-+500
"i think cousin umar is like amazing i think he's gonna be a big problem for guys in this division for years to come i don't think nate mines is any sort of real threat"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host picks Umar Nurmagomedov, trusting his skills and noting he makes low-level opponents look easy. He believes Umar will hurt Maness on the feet and then secure a submission in the second round. He criticizes Maness's last win over Tony Gravely as a fluke and doubts his grappling will be enough.

second round submission prediction
"i'm going to go with umar nurmagomedov winning this one"
Bekzat Almakhan - Fight History
SCHED vs Jean Matsumoto
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bekzat Almakhan vs. Jean Matsumoto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-160); Almakhan (+135)

Round 1
Maybe the best fight on the whole UFC Baku card despite being stuck in the early prelims, bantamweight up-and-comers Almakhan and Nascimento go to work under the watchful eye of referee Rich Mitchell. They touch gloves and go to work In matching orthodox stances. Almakhan steps forward and lands a jab. Matsumoto feints with the rear leg a few times, but doesn’t pull the trigger. Matsumoto goes upstairs with a kick that comes up short. Almakhan steps into the pocket and throws a flurry of punches that come up short. Matsumoto flicks out another high kick. Almakhan bursts forward with another glancing volley of punches. Two minutes in, Almakhan catches Matsumoto with a hard left hand that is the cleanest shot of the fight by either man so far. Matsumoto connects with a hard calf kick, then another, a few moments later. Almakhan checks the next one, and nails Matsumoto with a counter that takes him off his feet. Matsumoto springs back up but is hurt. He shoots for a takedown, which Almakhan defends, but gets a few crucial seconds to recover. Matsumoto is still hurt and recovering, but with a minute to go in the round, he steps forward, lands a pair of hooks and clinches, then drives Almakhan to the fence and works for a takedown. Almakhan defends well, but Matsumoto picks up and slams him right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan

Round 2
Matsumoto lands first with a right hook. They separate, reengage and Matsumoto connects again. Matsumoto changes levels for a double-leg takedown, and looks close to getting it, but Almakhan sprawls and keeps his feet. They disengage and go back to work at distance. Matsumoto goes to work with kicks to the lead left leg of Almakhan. Almakhan counters with his right cross. Matsumoto lands a two-piece upstairs. Almakhan sidesteps a Matsumoto advance and clocks him with a clean left. Matsumoto shakes it off, but it looks like it hurt. Matsumoto drives Almakhan to the fence, where he grabs a single-leg. Almakhan defends the takedown well and they disengage. Matsumoto touches with a body kick, then another, then a front kick to the midsection. Almakhan is largely wearing the kicks, looking to counter rather than evade. Matsumoto runs Almakhan to the fence but can’t get a takedown going. They collide in the pocket, with both men landing several punches. Matsumoto lands a spinning back elbow at the clapper, then a glancing flying knee before the horn. Close round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto

Round 3
Matsumoto has a cut over the left eye that has been capably addressed by the cutman between rounds, and he’s on the front foot to kick off Round 3. There are a few tentative exchanges in the pocket, and Matsumoto waves his arms to the crowd. Ninety seconds into the round, Matsumoto is the aggressor, but neither man has truly put a stamp on the round. Referee Mitchell halts the action, as Matsumoto drags his extended fingers across the eye of Almakhan. With a warning and a few seconds to recover, they go back to work. Almakhan gives ground, but lands his left hook, then lands it again. Matsumoto comes up short with a left head kick, then throws a right high kick that glances off the guard of the Kazakhstani. Matsumoto shoots for a takedown near the fence and succeeds in dragging Almakhan to his seat at the base of the cage, but Almakhan bounces back up. They return to the center of the cage, but Matsumoto quickly walks Almakhan back to the cage. Almakhan punches his way off the fence. Almakhan throws a high kick that lands solidly on the forearm of Matsumoto. They meet in the center of the Octagon at the 10-second clapper, but neither man lands anything of consequence before the horn, and they walk off with arms raised.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan (29-28 Almakhan)

The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Bekzat Almakhan via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

AJ DeVito likes Bekzat Almakhan as an underdog at +125, believing his hands are sharper and his wrestling is superior to Jean Matsumoto's Muay Thai style. He thinks Almakhan should be the favorite and expects a decision win, though he acknowledges knockout power. He includes Almakhan in a doggy style parlay.

Almakhan by decision (mentioned in parlay); included in parlay with Torres and Oleksiejczuk at +703.
"I like Beexat's chances a lot here. I think that his hands are a lot sharper than Gene Matsumoto... I'm surprised he's the underdog."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

AJ believes Almakhan has the boxing advantage over Matsumoto's Muay Thai, with better speed, power, and wrestling. He thinks Matsumoto's boxing is mediocre and that Almakhan can outbox him and mix in takedowns. AJ is surprised Almakhan is the underdog and thinks the line is wrong.

Knockout +325, Decision +350
"I think Beexad Amakan is more than a live underdog. I think you're looking at a guy that should be the favorite."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

AJ likes Almakhan's boxing advantage, elusiveness, and power, while Matsumoto's Muay Thai is heavy-footed with limited punching power. He believes Almakhan's takedown threat and superior hands will outwork Matsumoto over three rounds, possibly earning a decision or late finish.

Almakhan by KO prop might be +800. Over 2.5 rounds -190. AJ surprised Matsumoto is -160 favorite; thinks Almakhan should be favored.
"I like the side of Becksat Al-Makan to get the win here. I really like his boxing advantage."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

AJ believes Almakhan has superior boxing, speed, and wrestling compared to Matsumoto, despite Matsumoto's slight edge in kicks. He is surprised Almakhan is a +140 underdog and thinks the odds could be flipped. He predicts a competitive three-round fight with Almakhan doing more over 15 minutes, likely winning by decision.

Almakhan by decision at +350; over 2.5 rounds -220; Almakhan wins over 1.5 rounds +200; Matsumoto by decision +130; Almakhan +3.5 -175.
"Beexat as a dog here is kind of madness to me."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Angelo picks Matsumoto, believing his aggression will neutralize Almakhan's offense. He notes that Matsumoto is tough and durable, while Almakhan is dangerous but lacks takedown defense and work rate. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds because both fighters are tough.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I like Gene to win this fight. He's going to be the pick. The over two and a half to me makes a ton of sense as well because they're both really tough."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Angelo thinks Jean Matsumoto wins but wasn't confident enough to bet the winner. He notes Matsumoto is insanely tough and not very dangerous, while Bekzat is dangerous but also tough. He expects a decision because Matsumoto doesn't have finishing ability and won't get finished.

over 2.5 rounds (in parlay)
"I think Jean Matsumoto wins, but I wasn't going to draw a line on the winner. Matsumoto is insanely tough and not very dangerous."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto, believing his forward pressure and aggression will neutralize Bekzat's speed and mobility. He thinks Jean has been unlucky in recent decisions and should have won his last two fights. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting a close decision.

over 2.5 rounds
"I think Jean Matsumoto's forward pressure, his aggression, I think it'll work well for him. ... I like Jean getting in his face, I like him mixing things up. He's going to be the pick. I also love over two …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto over Bekzat Almakhan. He notes that Almakhan has power but very low volume, questionable takedown defense, and poor ground game. Matsumoto is the higher-volume striker with superior wrestling, having taken down Rob Font and Fareed Baserat multiple times. Brady expects Matsumoto to win by decision, possibly by submission late if Almakhan makes mistakes.

"I like Matsumoto here. Um and I like him to win. And I'll say by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Cody picks Matsumoto, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Matsumoto's durability and experience against better competition, and Almakhan's low volume. He expects Matsumoto to win a decision.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I prefer the over two and a half here. I'm going to trust uh that chin of Matsimo like the over two and a half is like minus 185."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Daniel Levi picks Jean Matsumoto, citing his durability, forward pressure, and weaponized cardio. He notes that Almakhan is dangerous early but fades if he doesn't finish, as seen against Alexandre Tapora. Matsumoto's ability to survive Almakhan's power and then push a pace should break him late. Levi also highlights Matsumoto's competitive performance against Fared Basharat as a sign of his caliber.

"I think that as long as Matsumoto doesn't get caught here, I think he's going to push a serious pace on Alma and I think he's going to break him late."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Jacob picks Matsumoto, citing his work rate and ability to mix in takedowns. He thinks Almakhan's only path is a KO, but Matsumoto is too tough to finish. He also likes Matsumoto to get takedowns and suggests a prop on that.

Jean Matsumoto to get 1+ takedowns
"The work rate of Gene Matsumoto is probably going to be too much. He does like to mix in some takedowns here. So, the props and things that I would like in this fight is Gene Matsumoto to get takedowns."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Lucrative James picks Jean Matsumoto because he believes Matsumoto has superior cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes that Almakhan is a good boxer but limited elsewhere, and tends to shut down when things go south. He expects Almakhan to start well, but Matsumoto's pace, leg kicks, and grappling will take over in rounds two and three, leading to a decision win.

"Gatsimo wins this fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The host picks Jean Matsumoto to thwart the grappling approach of Bekzat Almakhan and out-strike him on the feet. He believes Matsumoto will land better damage and possibly get to some grappling of his own, ultimately winning on the scorecards.

Matsumoto wins by decision
"I like me some Matsumoto here to thwart the grappling approach of Almakayev Almakhan, sorry, and eventually out-strike him landing better damage on the feet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Matsumoto has shown he can work back to his feet quickly after takedowns and has a striking advantage. He will wear Almakhan down with leg kicks and combinations, eventually pulling away. Almakhan relies on grappling but Matsumoto's defensive wrestling and ability to get up will neutralize that.

"I believe Matsumoto will get taken down, but I believe he'll be able to get back to his feet in relatively quick fashion and then from there, I think he'll be able to show off his striking advantage."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Paul picks Matsumoto, citing his durability, volume, and takedown defense. He notes Almakhan's power but low volume, and believes Matsumoto will outwork him. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and a split decision prop.

Over 2.5 rounds at -185; split decision prop
"I got the over. I got Masumoto. I got Masamoto by decision, but uh it's a Alma fight, man."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The Guru picks Matsumoto via decision, citing his durability, pressure, clinch work, and ability to survive early danger from Almakhan's power. He expects Almakhan to fade after a round and a half, allowing Matsumoto to take over with cumulative damage and conditioning. He notes Matsumoto's experience against a similar fighter in Farid Basharat.

"I'm going to go with Jean Matsumoto via decision."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bekzat Almakhan 0 39 of 119 32% 42 of 122 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Aleksandre Topuria 0 47 of 81 58% 55 of 89 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bekzat Almakhan 0 12 of 39 30% 14 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksandre Topuria 0 17 of 28 60% 23 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
2 Bekzat Almakhan 0 13 of 31 41% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksandre Topuria 0 15 of 26 57% 16 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:05
3 Bekzat Almakhan 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Aleksandre Topuria 0 15 of 27 55% 16 of 28 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bekzat Almakhan 39 of 119 32% 26 of 102 8 of 11 5 of 6 38 of 116 1 of 2 0 of 1
Aleksandre Topuria 47 of 81 58% 45 of 75 1 of 5 1 of 1 44 of 77 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bekzat Almakhan 12 of 39 30% 6 of 31 4 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 1
Aleksandre Topuria 17 of 28 60% 15 of 23 1 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 25 1 of 1 2 of 2
2 Bekzat Almakhan 13 of 31 41% 8 of 24 2 of 3 3 of 4 13 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Aleksandre Topuria 15 of 26 57% 15 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Bekzat Almakhan 14 of 49 28% 12 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandre Topuria 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bekzat Almakhan vs. Aleksandre Topuria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almakhan (-120); Topuria (+100)

Round 1
There ain’t no party like a prelim party ‘cuz a prelim party don’t stop…ever…not with 14 fights on the billing. Bantamweights are on deck, with two athletes possessing exactly one decision on each of their records. Almakhan (12-2, 1-1 UFC) has plenty of experience beyond the 14 pro MMA fights on his ledger, with a slew of appearances on the MMA-adjacent Zhekpe Zhek sport in his home country of Kazakhstan. Georgia’s Topuria (6-1, 1-0 UFC) has far fewer matches to his credit, but he bears the name of the 155-pound champion as his elder brother. All eyes are on him now to keep representing the family name. Referee Marc Goddard draws the charge for what should be an action-packed affair, and the athletes touch ‘em up.
Topuria moves right to the center of the cage and sticks out a jab, and Almakhan counters him right off the bat with a right hand. Almakhan backs up Topuria with a right hand, and resets. Topuria jabs at the chest a few times, and Almakhan’s swings are far heavier but less accurate. The jabs of “El Conquistador” have marked up Almakhan’s nose, who chambers and fires off a right hand to counter a low kick and sends Topuria somersaulting backwards. Topuria springs back to his feet no worse for wear and goes back to walking down the man from Kazakhstan. Topuria steps on Almakhan’s foot to get in a jab, and Almakhan wrenches it out and escapes. A low kick from Almakhan chops Topuria down, who has to spin around on his knee to get back upright. Almakhan drives a knee through the guard to the dome, and Topuria takes it and then absorbs a thudding calf kick.
Almakhan strings a few punches together and slips to the side, and he rams his knee into Topuria’s side for good measure. Topuria’s own offense is little more than solid jabs, while Almakhan is putting a great deal into his fists. Topuria tries to score a heavier right hand, and Almakhan escapes it, clinches at the right time and pops Topuria with a few short punches. Almakhan hits a hip toss, and Topuria rolls through it to establish top position. Almakhan’s strikes off his back include a few to the back of the head, and Topuria elbows his way into full mount. Almakhan scrambles and briefly gives up his back, but he manages to keep twisting and turning to escape the clutches of his adversary and stand back to his feet. Topuria greets him with a strong jab and takes a few punches on the inside, and he gives a knee back. The two trade hard punches, with Topuria chasing Almakhan down around the cage. Topuria does some damage to Almakhan’s upper right cheek, and he aims at it with his sharp jab. Topuria lands at the end of a one-two, making up plenty of ground as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almakhan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 2
The fighters pick up where they left off, with Topuria going straight towards his opponent. Almakhan strafes to the side and then plants his feet to fire. The moment he does, Topuria shoots in on his hips and completes a double-leg takedown. Almakhan plants off his right hand to push off and hope to stand, only for Topuria to wrench him flat to the mat. Topuria looks for some high-amplitude ground strikes, and Almakhan times a moment to push off the chest with his foot to get some space. Almakhan bursts back to his feet, and he has a one-two flying the second he finds a way in. Topuria ignores it and a subsequent left hand to keep crowding his man, forcing him to constantly fight off his back foot as he flashes jab after jab. He swats out a left hand that appears to swipe Almakhan in the eye, and he apologizes with the foul going uncalled. Almakhan nods and then takes a moment before opening up with a clubbing right hand that makes Topuria take a funny step.
When Topuria stands tall again, Almakhan kicks his leg out once more, and Topuria nearly turns all the way about before reeling and coming back around. Almakhan’s face is wearing it after the jabs from Topuria find their home, his nose bloody from both nostrils as his shiner around his eye grows larger. Topuria tries for a takedown, and Almakhan stands him up and grazes the top of his head with a spinning back elbow when escaping. He lets fly a low kick and just misses with a spinning back fist, and Topuria shrugs it off and loads up with a strong right hand. He catches Almakhan with his right, and his subsequent jab cause more blood to flow. Topuria overswings and crashes into the cage, and he raises his guard in the nick of time to defend against a head kick. Almakhan’s swings go wide as he tries to keep Topuria off of him, and he dings his foe twice behind the ear before the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 3
The bantamweight sluggers high-five after engaging in 10 minutes of face punching, and proceed to punch one another in the face. Almakhan loads up on power shots, and Topuria slips most of them and jabs him square in the beak. Topuria does not flinch at what Almakhan throws at him, and he ducks a big right to pursue a double. Almakhan stonewalls him and loads up again, and Topuria is too close so he avoids the damage. Topuria backs Almakhan up with a jab and a right hand, and he narrowly evades an up-elbow. Topuria does not need long to bloody up the Kazakh again, who responds to a few jabs with power punches. Topuria sets up a right hand that sends Almakhan reeling, and he blasts “The Turan Warrior” with a second as Almakhan’s eyes roll around in his head as he stumbles to a knee.
Almakhan blinks it out and climbs back to his feet, and Topuria is right in his face pressuring him the entire time. Almakhan does give him back a few fists to think about, but Topuria’s power is telling at this stage. A massive swing from Topuria is met with a tackling takedown from Almakhan, although the act of keeping Topuria on the ground is less successful. Topuria gets back up and is right behind his jab once more. The jab opens up his right hand, which catches Almakhan flush on the cheek. Almakhan looks for a spinning elbow, recovering just in time to stop a takedown shot from the Georgian. Almakhan uses the fence behind him to stay on his feet, and he manages to get free with about 15 seconds to spare. Almakhan explodes into action, swarming his man with a lengthy string of fists and a pair of vicious knees to the jaw. Topuria tanks them all like a champ and wags his finger at Almakhan demoralizingly, and the match comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (29-28 Topuria)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (30-27 Topuria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (30-27 Topuria)

The Official Result
Aleksandre Topuria def. Bekzat Almakhan via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Aleksandre Topuria

Angelo picks Aleksandre Topuria over Bekzat Almakhan, but with caution. He notes Topuria's Greco-Roman wrestling may suit him well if he pressures Almakhan against the cage. Almakhan is dangerous with knockout power, but Topuria's size and strength advantage could be key. Angelo warns that Topuria is not his brother Ilia and that Almakhan at plus money is a viable underdog play.

Almakhan at minus 115 or plus money is phenomenal; be careful in this fight.
"I'm actually going to pick Aleandre here. He's a dog right now. I think he's the better pick because I think the Greco Roman wrestling will suit him well."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

Big Brady leans Bekzat Almakhan, impressed by his knockout of Brad Katona and well-rounded skills. He questions Topuria's cardio and performance against Colby Covington, expecting Almakhan to do more and win by decision or late finish.

decision
"Give me Beksat to win this fight. I think it could be by late finish. I think it could be by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandre Topuria

Cody picks Aleksandre Topuria, noting his patient style and power. He believes Topuria's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Almakhan is one-dimensional with big power but poor takedown defense. Cody thinks Topuria can take Almakhan down and control him.

"I got a lock toy. Really, he's you could say he's a poor man's version of his brother, but he fights a pretty similar game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

Connor picks Almakhan as well, citing his real-world experience against decent regional talent. He notes that Topuria has only had one solid showing against a non-technical opponent and has a knockout loss. He thinks Almakhan's power and ability to walk people into shots could be key, and that Topuria may not have the power to match.

"I'll take all Macan too, but I, this one I'm quite open to being, you know, accepting whatever surprising thing happens."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

Lucrative James picks Bekzat Almakhan in a close fight. He believes Almakhan is a cleaner striker with more power and experience. He notes Topuria's lack of activity and unknown grappling. He expects a striking exchange where Almakhan's speed and timing give him the edge. He acknowledges Topuria's potential but leans Almakhan.

"I'm going to predict Beexat to win this one cuz I think on the feet he can match Taporeia's power."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

Almakhan has a better strength of schedule and has faced more resistance. His striking should counter Topuria's power approach, and he may have the wrestling edge. However, confidence is low due to Topuria's potential.

"I am going to take uh Alma Khan here. And I think he ends up grinding this fight out... win it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandre Topuria

Paul picks Aleksandre Topuria, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Almakhan has only shown big power and has poor takedown defense. Paul believes Topuria's grappling and patience will lead to a win.

"I agree with you. We move on down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

The MMA Guru picks Bekzat Almakhan over Aleksandre Topuria, not buying the hype around Topuria. He notes Almakhan dropped Umar Nurmagomedov in his debut and had great scrambles. He believes Almakhan is better than Colby Covington, who gave Topuria a close fight. He predicts a TKO finish by Almakhan.

finish by TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Bekzat Almakan. The odds are even here and I think that's why, even though there's so much hype on Alahandro Topuria."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

Zane picks Almakhan but is quite open to being surprised. He notes that Almakhan is a dangerous finisher who dropped Umar and pasted Brad Katona. He thinks Topuria looks like he prefers coaching to fighting and may lack his brother's competitive drive. He mentions Topuria's technical grounding but questions his desire.

Odds: Almakhan opened +170, now +100; Topuria opened -200, now -120. Zane says it should be a dead even fight.
"I think I'm going to take all Macan. I'm kind of trending the same way."
WIN vs Brad Katona
KO R1 1:04 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brad Katona 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bekzat Almakhan 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brad Katona 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bekzat Almakhan 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brad Katona 1 of 4 25% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bekzat Almakhan 8 of 11 72% 7 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brad Katona 1 of 4 25% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bekzat Almakhan 8 of 11 72% 7 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bekzat Almakhan vs. Brad Katona
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almakhan (-180), Katona (+150)

Round 1
The UFC is back in Montreal, the city of the world-famous Expos, for the first time in over a decade. Two champions will attempt to defend their thrones for the first times—with the first of those two on her second stint as a titleholder. Before then, an even 10 matches from flyweight to light heavyweight will play out with plenty of Canadians in tow to give the home crowd someone to support in most of those bouts. The first of those fights pits Canada’s Katona (14-4, 4-4 UFC) against the hard-swinging Almakhan (11-2, 0-1 UFC) at 135 pounds. With referee Jason Herzog taking charge of the contest, the two men consider touching gloves but bail so they can get after it. It’s time for some action. Almakhan takes the center of the cage, allowing Katona to circle around him. Almakhan leads the dance with a body shot, and then strings together a few punches up top before Katona could get away. When Katona settles down, Almakhan surges towards him and connects with a trio of punches. Katona ducks face-first into an uppercut, wears it well and counters to give the Kazakhstani a taste of his own medicine. Almakhan appears to have his foe’s timing early, as he bounces in and out while watching Katona’s movement carefully.
The moment Katona is about to attack, Almakhan offers a destructive uppercut that sends Katona crashing to his back. Almakhan leaps on top, hammering “Superman” with hammerfists that prove to be Katona’s kryptonite
. Herzog does not need to see more than a few before stepping in as Katona’s lights flicker on and off, and Almakhan has notched his first UFC victory in a huge way. “The Turan Warrior” violently becomes the first fighter to ever finish the durable Canadian, getting him out of there in a little over a minute. Despite a home country fighter getting wrecked in the opening bout, fans have to give it up to the impressive display from the Zhekpe Zhek practitioner.
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The Official Result
Bekzat Almakhan def. Brad Katona R1 1:04 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Angelo picks Brad Katona, criticizing the hype around Bekzat Almakhan who lost his UFC debut despite landing one good punch. He trusts Katona's grit and forward pressure. He mentions a safer bet on Katona plus 3.5 (buying points) rather than the moneyline, noting Katona is at home and may get favorable judging.

Considering Brad Katona +3.5 (buying points)
"I'm going to pick the gritty Canadian who will move forward and fight his ass off. Brad Katana is not the best fighter in the world, but I know for a fact he will fight his ass off."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Brad Katona

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight, with both fighters well-rounded. He notes that Bekzat Almakhan's hype is based on one moment against Umar Nurmagomedov, but he lost most of that fight. He favors Brad Katona's volume and wrestling, and thinks the fight goes to decision. He picks the Canadian Katona in what he expects to be a close fight, relying on the judges.

"I think this fight's going to be very close. I think this fight's going to be very competitive back and forth. ... give me the Canadian in what I think is going to be a very very close fight. Taking …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 9, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Brad Katona

Connor picks Katona, citing his proven process at the UFC level and relentless pace. He notes that Katona is a tough, durable fighter who builds momentum as fights go on, and that Almakhan may not be used to the pace and pressure Katona brings. Connor acknowledges that Katona often loses the first round but believes his conditioning and aggression will overwhelm Almakhan in later rounds.

"I think I kind of have to pick the toner it does feel like it could be too big of a test... his process is very proven at this level."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brad Katona

The host believes Brad Katona has been underachieving and will showcase his pace, fight IQ, and defensive grappling to keep the fight in the striking realm. He expects Katona to dictate the pace with his striking advantage and mix in some grappling to secure a decision victory.

"I believe this is a fight that Kona can start showcasing that he's been underachieving in his last few fights."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

The MMA Guru picks Almakhan, citing his physicality, power, and performance against Umar Nurmagomedov. He thinks Katona is untalented and lacks finishing ability, while Almakhan will stuff takedowns and land a TKO. He notes Almakhan's fast, dangerous striking and Katona's well-rounded but unimpressive style.

TKO finish
"I'm actually going to go with Beex Al Macan getting a TKO finish over Brad Kona."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 9, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Bekzat Almakhan

Zane picks Almakhan, arguing that Katona's game is predictable and that Almakhan has the confidence and timing to exploit it. He notes that Almakhan dropped Umar Nurmagomedov early in their fight and has a unique, comfortable style developed on the regional scene. Zane expects Katona to lose the first round and that Almakhan can front-run to a decision.

"I think I am going to pick Alma Khan here."
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 68 of 98 69% 145 of 197 5 of 5 100% 0 0 11:26
Bekzat Almakhan 1 3 of 16 18% 5 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 8 87% 43 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:21
Bekzat Almakhan 1 2 of 3 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 39 of 60 65% 52 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:06
Bekzat Almakhan 0 0 of 8 0% 0 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 22 of 30 73% 50 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:59
Bekzat Almakhan 0 1 of 5 20% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 68 of 98 69% 64 of 94 0 of 0 4 of 4 7 of 13 0 of 0 61 of 85
Bekzat Almakhan 3 of 16 18% 1 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 7 of 8 87% 6 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 7
Bekzat Almakhan 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 39 of 60 65% 38 of 59 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 36 of 53
Bekzat Almakhan 0 of 8 0% 0 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 22 of 30 73% 20 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 25
Bekzat Almakhan 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
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Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-1200), Almakhan (+750)

Round 1
There are plenty of questions coming into this bantamweight contest. Nurmagomedov (16-0, 4-0 UFC) is undefeated with four wins in the UFC including three stoppages, but he does not draw a ranked contender. Instead, he fights promotional newcomer Almakhan (11-1, 0-0 UFC), who has had quite a week himself. Previously billed at 17-1 by the UFC and other record keepers, after a Sherdog Fight Finder investigation, we learned that Almakhan actually celebrates 11 pro MMA wins and another 11 wins under bouts under modified rules similar to MMA. Whether the youngster from Kazakhstan can spring one of the bigger betting upsets in UFC history, referee Marc Goddard will be the first one to know. The -1600 favorite Nurmagomedov and +850 dog Almakhan touch gloves, and Almakhan moves to the center of the cage early. He releases a head kick, and is met with a low kick when that is blocked. Almakhan rips a kick to the body, and it comes close to hitting the cup so he offers an apology. Almakhan unloads a huge right hand that knocks Nurmagomedov to his seat, and he jumps after the unbeaten fighter to finish the job. Nurmagomedov desperately dives after a single, and he succeeds to get him down and eventually works his way to side control. Nurmagomedov slams down elbows from the position until Almakhan scrambles to his knees, and Nurmagomedov takes his back gets the hooks in. Almakhan squirms from one side to the other to try to escape, and Nurmagomedov softens him up with short punches. Nurmagomedov secures the body triangle briefly, and Almakhan breaks it up for a time. Almakhan hand-fights and turns to a side, but before he can escape, Nurmagomedov spins around and moves to top position. Nurmagomedov keeps heavy chest pressure when elbowing on top, marking up Almakhan’s nose. Nurmagomedov grinds with elbows until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get things started, and both men are tentative to engage. Almakhan keeps a safe distance, hopping away from a low kick, but not able to dodge a head kick. Almakhan overswings with a right hand, and Nurmagomedov shoots in with a perfectly timed takedown to put the youngster from Kazakhstan on his back. Nurmagomedov moves right into half guard, where he picks up with elbows until he hops to side control on the other side. Almakhan explodes his way upright suddenly, and when Nurmagomedov stands lazily, Almakhan blasts him with a high kick that might have been questionable. Nurmagomedov times a single-leg takedown and completes it with relative ease, and he sits up and starts elbowing as he moves into full mount. Almakhan bucks his hips, and he absorbs elbows on his face. Nurmagomedov lets go with punches and elbows, with a flurry that allows Almakhan to burst back to his feet. Nurmagomedov shoots from afar for a single, and Almakhan stops the first attempt but cannot stop Nurmagomedov from circling around to take his back and drag him down. Nurmagomedov moves right back into full mount, where he hacks down with elbows to bloody up Almakhan and lump him up. Nurmagomedov pummels his foe with punches, and Almakhan keeps his guard up to take the sting out of most of them before exploding once more to stand. Nurmagomedov thwarts this bucking and stays on him in side control, before he slithers around to take Almakhan’s back with 10 seconds to spare. Almakhan sits up as Nurmagomedov slugs him, and the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 3
A quick glove touch opens up the last round, and Almakhan hops back from a low kick before sprinting forward to deliver a head kick that skims past the unbeaten fighter’s head. Nurmagomedov sticks out a jab, and he eats a body shot and goes up high with a kick as Almakhan smiles at him. Almakhan goes wide with a booming right hand that nearly makes him fall to the ground, and Nurmagomedov shoots with an effortless single to put Almakhan on his back. Nurmagomedov scoots his way to half guard to strike with the point of his elbow, and his left hand similarly finds its home on Almakhan’s swelling face. Nurmagomedov continues bludgeoning the newcomer with open left hands, and he follows Almakhan as Almakhan butt-scoots his way to the fence. Almakhan turns to his side so he can get to his knees, and Nurmagomedov takes his back and flattens him out. Almakhan turns to his side, and Nurmagomedov lords over him in three-quarter mount, laying into him with unanswered punches. Almakhan sits up, and Nurmagomedov hops over to take his back again. Almakhan’s experience in mixed-rules fights may be working against him at this point, as he is used to 30-second mandatory standups while grappling, even with back control or other dominant positions that Nurmagomedov has imposed on him. Nurmagomedov slices into mount again and he jackhammers the Kazakhstani fighter with elbows. Nurmagomedov postures up and tries to finish the fight with relentless ground-and-pound, but the fight ends before he can secure a stoppage. When he stands up, Almakhan is busted and swollen all over, and he can barely put weight on his left leg in a real “welcome to the UFC” moment.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (30-27 Nurmagomedov)

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Bekzat Almakhan via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, acknowledging Bekzat Almakhan is a very good fighter but believes Umar's wrestling and kicking range will be the difference. He notes the odds are too high to bet on Umar at -900, removing any temptation to bet.

No bet due to extreme odds
"Umar is going to be the pick for sure these odds are kind of crazy umar's a minus 900 favorite and frankly I'm glad that he's a minus 900 favorite because that will remove any Temptation whatsoever to bet on …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar to finish Almakhan in the second round by submission. He notes Umar is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling—and has fought much better competition. He thinks Almakhan is a solid fighter but is outmatched. He calls Umar a -1200 favorite and expects a finish.

second round submission
"give me Umar naged up to go out there and finish vad here in the second round by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody also picks Umar, noting that Almakhan is a sacrificial lamb brought in to lose. He compares Almakhan to other undefeated regional fighters who struggle in the UFC, like Azat Maksum. Cody believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior and that Almakhan's only path to victory is a freak accident or foul. He calls it a squash match.

"Umar would have to get himself disqualified or hurt uh otherwise he's got him beat everywhere and it's a win-win situation for both guys"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent wrestling and striking, but Almakhan is a legitimate regional champion with improving skills. The host expects Nurmagomedov to win by decision rather than finish, as Almakhan is more disciplined than in his sole loss. The over 1.5 rounds is too chalky at -200, but Nurmagomedov by decision prop could offer plus money. The host advises against parlaying the -1050 moneyline.

Nurmagomedov by decision (prop), over 1.5 rounds considered but not recommended
"I'm going to take Naga mov and norov by decision I'll see what that prop is if we're getting solid enough plus money on it maybe I'll take a shot there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Umar confidently, calling him a future champion. He notes that Almakhan is a short-notice replacement with a padded record and that Umar is levels above. He mentions that Almakhan is well-rounded but not elite in any area, and Umar should dominate everywhere. He acknowledges the minus-1000 price is prohibitive for straight bets but sees Umar as a safe parlay piece.

"Umar keeps getting better obviously nobody wants the cousin Umar smoking for good reason... I think he beats everybody in this division so how could I not pick him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov, noting he is a massive bantamweight with strength and grappling advantages. He predicts Umar will get a takedown, take the back, and choke out Almakhan in round one. He sees a significant strength difference and believes Almakhan looks frail in comparison.

round 1 submission
"I think Umar is going to get a takedown... take the back and choke him out... round one submission Umar Nurmagomedov"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, acknowledging Bekzat Almakhan is a very good fighter but believes Umar's wrestling and kicking range will be the difference. He notes the odds are too high to bet on Umar at -900, removing any temptation to bet.

No bet due to extreme odds
"Umar is going to be the pick for sure these odds are kind of crazy umar's a minus 900 favorite and frankly I'm glad that he's a minus 900 favorite because that will remove any Temptation whatsoever to bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar to finish Almakhan in the second round by submission. He notes Umar is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling—and has fought much better competition. He thinks Almakhan is a solid fighter but is outmatched. He calls Umar a -1200 favorite and expects a finish.

second round submission
"give me Umar naged up to go out there and finish vad here in the second round by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody also picks Umar, noting that Almakhan is a sacrificial lamb brought in to lose. He compares Almakhan to other undefeated regional fighters who struggle in the UFC, like Azat Maksum. Cody believes Umar's wrestling and striking are superior and that Almakhan's only path to victory is a freak accident or foul. He calls it a squash match.

"Umar would have to get himself disqualified or hurt uh otherwise he's got him beat everywhere and it's a win-win situation for both guys"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent wrestling and striking, but Almakhan is a legitimate regional champion with improving skills. The host expects Nurmagomedov to win by decision rather than finish, as Almakhan is more disciplined than in his sole loss. The over 1.5 rounds is too chalky at -200, but Nurmagomedov by decision prop could offer plus money. The host advises against parlaying the -1050 moneyline.

Nurmagomedov by decision (prop), over 1.5 rounds considered but not recommended
"I'm going to take Naga mov and norov by decision I'll see what that prop is if we're getting solid enough plus money on it maybe I'll take a shot there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Umar confidently, calling him a future champion. He notes that Almakhan is a short-notice replacement with a padded record and that Umar is levels above. He mentions that Almakhan is well-rounded but not elite in any area, and Umar should dominate everywhere. He acknowledges the minus-1000 price is prohibitive for straight bets but sees Umar as a safe parlay piece.

"Umar keeps getting better obviously nobody wants the cousin Umar smoking for good reason... I think he beats everybody in this division so how could I not pick him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov, noting he is a massive bantamweight with strength and grappling advantages. He predicts Umar will get a takedown, take the back, and choke out Almakhan in round one. He sees a significant strength difference and believes Almakhan looks frail in comparison.

round 1 submission
"I think Umar is going to get a takedown... take the back and choke him out... round one submission Umar Nurmagomedov"