vs
-375 +350
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Next Fight
Age 28
Height 6' 2"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Vitor Petrino
3.24 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.71 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.6 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
79.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tyson Pedro
2.9 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
2.39 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Vitor Petrino
Moneyline
BetMGM -375
KO/TKO
FanDuel +160
Submission
FanDuel +390
Decision
BetWay +300
Tyson Pedro
Moneyline
DraftKings +350
KO/TKO
FanDuel +650
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
BetRivers +1200
Vitor Petrino - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 92 of 161 57% 92 of 162 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:17
Steven Asplund 1 61 of 158 38% 73 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 38 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:23
Steven Asplund 1 20 of 45 44% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Vitor Petrino 0 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Steven Asplund 0 14 of 50 28% 14 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 39 of 72 54% 39 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Asplund 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 92 of 161 57% 59 of 126 18 of 18 15 of 17 92 of 160 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 61 of 158 38% 48 of 140 4 of 8 9 of 10 58 of 154 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 19 of 37 51% 14 of 32 2 of 2 3 of 3 19 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 20 of 45 44% 14 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 17 of 41 1 of 2 2 of 2
2 Vitor Petrino 34 of 52 65% 25 of 42 3 of 3 6 of 7 34 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 14 of 50 28% 12 of 45 1 of 3 1 of 2 14 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 39 of 72 54% 20 of 52 13 of 13 6 of 7 39 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 27 of 63 42% 22 of 56 0 of 2 5 of 5 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Angelo picks Steven Asplund despite being an underdog. He criticizes Vitor Petrino's lack of killer instinct and fight IQ, and believes Asplund's incredible cardio, durability, and forward pressure will break Petrino. He notes that Petrino is more athletic and technical, but Asplund's willpower and toughness will be the difference. He is not betting on it due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"I'm going to pick Stephen Aspun here. ... I gotta go with the guy who changed his life through hard work and determination."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round submission. He is a fan of Asplund but worries about his takedown defense, citing the Don'Tale Mayes fight where he was dominated. He believes Petrino's wrestling and strength will be too much, and if Asplund hasn't improved his grappling, Petrino will finish him quickly.

"give me Vita Petrino to win this fight and win it by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Cody picks Asplund as a dog, citing Petrino's poor cardio, questionable chin, and broken hand. He notes Asplund's volume and durability, and thinks he can outwork Petrino and potentially finish him late.

"I got I got Ask one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino, agreeing that being at heavyweight has emboldened him to be the powerful guy he was at light heavyweight. He notes that the speed of opponents at light heavyweight may have freaked him out, but now he feels like a god against slower heavyweights.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'll take Patrino to. He may not feel like the dad energy, but he's got the power and being at heavyweight does seem to have emboldened him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

James picks Vitor Petrino to win by submission, highlighting his black belt in BJJ and Asplund's only loss coming by submission. He notes Petrino's grappling advantage and Asplund's tendency to give up his neck. He mentions a possible hand injury for Petrino but still expects a submission win.

"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via submission as my official prediction in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host picks Petrino to win by submission, citing his power and grappling advantage. He expects Petrino to take Asplund down and find a finish, noting that Asplund's lack of athleticism and strength will be exploited. He acknowledges Asplund's cardio could be a factor in deeper waters, but believes Petrino's early power will be decisive.

Petrino by submission
"I like Patrino here. I don't mind him at chalk. I'll be curious to see what the submission prop sits at... I like Patrino here and I'm going to take him to win this fight by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul leans Petrino but is not confident. He notes Petrino's grappling and power, but acknowledges his cardio issues and the broken hand narrative. He thinks Petrino can get takedowns and control, but it's risky.

"I think his takedown defense is there to get exploited and I expect Patrino as long as he doesn't get his head knocked off in the first few exchanges."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

The Guru picks Vitor Petrino, despite liking Asplund's style. He thinks Petrino's grappling will be the difference, as Asplund may struggle to escape bottom position. He predicts a submission win, possibly an arm triangle or rear naked choke, noting Petrino's success in his debut.

Prediction: submission win (arm triangle or rear naked choke)
"I'm going to go with Vitor Petrino... I think he'll get a submission win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino, noting that the heavyweight move seems to be working for him and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Asplund. He describes Asplund as a volume striker who gets hammered and has already lost to Denzel Freeman regionally.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'm going to pick Patrino because the heavyweight move seems like it's working for him so far and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Steve Asplund."
KO R3 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 2 31 of 54 57% 33 of 61 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:03
Thomas Petersen 0 16 of 35 45% 41 of 62 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 1 13 of 20 65% 15 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:42
Thomas Petersen 0 1 of 5 20% 22 of 27 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
2 Vitor Petrino 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:20
Thomas Petersen 0 13 of 28 46% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:08
3 Vitor Petrino 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Thomas Petersen 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 31 of 54 57% 25 of 46 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 29 9 of 12 9 of 13
Thomas Petersen 16 of 35 45% 7 of 25 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 13 of 20 65% 13 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 3 of 4 7 of 10
Thomas Petersen 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 14 of 28 50% 8 of 21 5 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 19 6 of 8 0 of 1
Thomas Petersen 13 of 28 46% 7 of 21 6 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thomas Petersen 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, believing he is better everywhere except for pure grit. He thinks Vitor can find a finish, but acknowledges the risk of Thomas Petersen grinding out a win if he gets top position. He is undecided on betting due to Vitor's lack of true heavyweight size and the possibility of being controlled on the ground.

"I do think Vitor is better everywhere except just pure American grit and toughness. I think he gets Thomas Petersen out of there."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by second-round knockout. He notes Petrino has filled out at heavyweight and put on muscle, and believes he will win because many heavyweights are not great. He thinks Petersen is more skilled than shown but won't outwrestle or outstrike Petrino. Brady leans toward a knockout, saying Petrino will touch Petersen's chin.

knockout
"I'm leaning knockout for VTO Petrino. I'll say he does touch the chin of Thomas Peterson. We'll say second round knockout for Vtorrino here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Cody picks Petersen as well, noting Petrino's history of underperforming as a favorite. He highlights Petrino's low volume and poor wrestling, while Petersen is a better wrestler and throws more volume. He expects a close fight but sees value in the underdog.

"I'm going Pison as well, but because it's in Brazil and I know Thomas Patterson really isn't a world beater by any stretch, it likely is the PRP pick this week all the way at the bottom."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino by KO, but is not confident due to Petrino's chin issues and the -310 price. He notes Petrino's power advantage and Petersen's poor striking defense. He acknowledges Petersen's wrestling and cardio could grind out a decision, but sees a knockout as most likely. He mentions he might bet against his pick with a Petersen decision longshot.

Vitor Petrino by KO (+140), Thomas Petersen by decision (+600)
"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via KO, but I don't love the pick and I'm definitely not in love with the price tag at minus 310."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Manpreet picks Petersen as an underdog, believing that if Petersen can avoid Petrino's early knockout power, his wrestling and cardio will take over. He notes Petersen's dominant performance against Mayes and expects him to wear Petrino down, potentially finishing in round three. He loves the plus 260 line and also considers the round three prop.

Petersen round three TKO (+1500); Petersen by decision (+550)
"I'd rather lean on that prop rather than taking the money line on Petrino, but at the end of the day, I'm going to lean Peterson here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Paul picks Petersen as a dog, citing Petrino's poor wrestling and low volume. He notes Petersen's wrestling credentials and durability, and believes he can outwork Petrino. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.

"For me, it's Dogger Pass. Thomas Peterson, where are you at with this fight?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino over Thomas Petersen, citing Petrino's size, power, and grappling skills. He notes Petersen is out of shape and Petrino showed good jiu-jitsu in his last fight. He predicts a TKO finish in the first round.

TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino. TKO finish in the first round over Thomas Peterson."
WIN vs Austen Lane
Submission R1 4:16 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino despite moving up to heavyweight, citing Austen Lane's lack of chin and reliance on grappling. He thinks Petrino's physicality and athleticism will be enough to win, but he despises the -700 odds. He notes Petrino was winning his last fight before getting knocked out, and Lane is chinny.

Despises -700 odds.
"Vtor Patino is going to be the pick. I absolutely despise these minus 700 odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady is confident in Vitor Petrino, noting that Austen Lane has been brutally knocked out multiple times and is 37 with a history of concussions. He believes Petrino will knock out Lane in hilarious fashion. He expresses concern for Lane's health and hopes this is his last fight.

first round knockout
"Give me Vito Petrino by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino easily, calling Austen Lane a person who should not be fighting—he closes his eyes when striking and gets hurt badly every time he trades. He notes that Petrino is moving up to heavyweight but is still a competent wrestler, unlike Robles de Spain who Lane beat. Connor believes this fight says nothing about Petrino's prospects but is a clear win.

"You got to pick Patrino. ... Austin Lane is just, yeah, you said he's the guy who closes his eyes when he has to strike."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host expects Petrino's power to translate to heavyweight and that he will eventually clip Lane and put him away. However, he advises against betting Petrino at -700, indicating the odds are too steep. The pick is based on Petrino's power and Lane's recent knockout losses.

would not bet at -700
"Petrino going up away class now to the heavyweight division. And we'll see in this fight if his power will translate, especially with Lane being knocked out and a few of his last losses. I think Patrino can eventually clip …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing Austen Lane's history of being knocked out (by Greg Hardy, Junior Tafa, Mario Pinto) and his poor striking defense with hands down. He expects Petrino's check hook to catch Lane as he darts in, leading to a first-round TKO. He also notes Petrino's decent scrambles on the ground, unlike Lane's vulnerability.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino getting this one done by early TKO over Austin Lane KO in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane agrees, calling Lane a 'fundamentally not a fighter' who takes severe damage. He notes that Petrino, despite his flaws, is a competent wrestler and athlete who should handle Lane easily. Zane criticizes the UFC for keeping Lane, comparing it to the Connor Matthews situation.

"Austin Lane is fundamentally a person that should not be doing this. ... So you got to pick Patrino."
LOSS vs Dustin Jacoby
KO (punch) R3 3:44 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 0 40 of 96 41% 40 of 96 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:40
Vitor Petrino 1 45 of 96 46% 47 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vitor Petrino 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Dustin Jacoby 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 18 of 36 50% 18 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dustin Jacoby 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:38
Vitor Petrino 1 15 of 28 53% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 40 of 96 41% 27 of 79 6 of 7 7 of 10 40 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 45 of 96 46% 23 of 69 7 of 9 15 of 18 39 of 87 5 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 12 of 32 37% 5 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 8 8 of 25 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Jacoby 19 of 47 40% 16 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 18 of 36 50% 8 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dustin Jacoby 11 of 23 47% 6 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 15 of 28 53% 10 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino because he hits hard and Jacoby's chin is declining. He notes Petrino's power, evolving grappling, and takedowns, while Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer with okay power and 60% takedown defense. He expresses concern about Petrino's smiling reaction after his submission loss to Anthony Smith, but believes it was a fluke. He thinks Jacoby could turn it into a dogfight but Petrino's power is the difference.

"I am going to pick patrino here because he hits so damn hard and Dustin's chin doesn't seem to be what it once was."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by decision. He thinks Petrino is younger, improving, and has more ways to win, including power and takedowns. He notes Jacoby has been dropped often and was recently knocked out by Reyes. He expects Petrino to mix in takedowns and land big shots, but not finish.

"I'll say patrino mixes in the takedowns maybe land some big shots here and there maybe drops jacobe because jacobe likes getting dropped but I'll say patrino does enough to win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Vitor Petrino but with low confidence, noting his poor gas tank and green technique. He believes Petrino will rely on takedowns and top control to win rounds, but Jacoby's striking advantage could be problematic. Cody suggests a live bet on Jacoby after the first round if Petrino tires.

Over 1.5 rounds (-167), fight goes to decision (+170)
"I'm willing to take the dog shot on Covington and Bruno Silva but I'm going to pass on this jacobe one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor picks Jacoby as well, agreeing that Petrino's new style is ineffective. He notes that Petrino's game is 'empty' and that Jacoby is a good outboxer who can take advantage. However, Connor also worries about Jacoby's durability, citing his knockout loss to Reyes and shaky moments against Alonzo Menifield.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303
"I'm picking Jacobi as well, but, uh, odd that the odds are against him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Vitor Petrino to get back on track after his loss to Anthony Smith. He acknowledges Dustin Jacoby's technical kickboxing but worries about Jacoby's durability and tendency to get hurt. Vreeland believes Petrino's freak athleticism and power can change the fight with one shot, even if he's being outpointed. He also notes Petrino can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I'm going go with vtor patrino to come out here and uh get back on track"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino to win, citing Petrino's multiple paths to victory including knockout and grappling. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing background and takedown defense, but believes Petrino's physicality and raw power will be too much. He expresses low interest in betting the fight unless prop odds are wide, but confidently predicts Petrino as the winner.

"I do think berrino wins I do think he's the better fighter I think that he's got way more ways to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino will crash the pocket effectively and land big shots on Jacoby, who struggles against opponents with big power. The finish is expected within the first two rounds.

wins in round 1 or 2
"I do believe patrino will be able to crash the pocket effectively here and that will allow him to land those big shots on jacobe who just can't seem to get out of the way of opponents with big Power …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, citing Petrino's struggles against strikers and Jacoby's striking volume. He notes that Petrino's takedowns are his only path, but Jacoby's takedown defense and ability to get back up could neutralize that. Paul is surprised Petrino is such a big favorite.

"I'm surprised that he's such a big favorite like um there does seem to be some action coming in on the jacobe side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, questioning why he is such a big underdog. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing experience and ability to invest in strikes, though he acknowledges Jacoby's chin has let him down. He believes Petrino's win over Smith was unimpressive (guillotine) and that Jacoby's layers and conditioning will give him an edge. He admits the oddsmakers might know something he doesn't.

underdog bet (implied odds comment)
"I'm going to go Dustin jacobe in his kickboxing experience being able to invest enough and do enough to patrino"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby because Petrino has abandoned his effective bullying style for a technical out-fighting game that doesn't work. He notes that Petrino's recent losses to Anthony Smith and Tyson Pedro show he has no plan, and Jacoby should have plenty of time and space to outbox him. However, Zane is concerned about Jacoby's chin and age.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303; Zane says the odds are 'too wide on Petrino'
"I'm still picking him against Vito Petrino, because Petrino's game as it stands right now is just empty."
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino due to youth, size, and strength, despite Smith being the better technical fighter. He notes Smith has taken too much damage and is past his prime, while Petrino is evolving. He calls it a 'changing of the guard' fight.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick but this is a perfect evolutionary step up in competition for Vitor patrino"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady favors Petrino's youth and momentum, noting his ability to win by knockout or decision. He thinks Smith is past his prime and has taken too much damage. He predicts Petrino wins by grinding decision, possibly taking Smith down.

"I'm gonna say Petrino by like a grinding based decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his physical strength, takedown ability, and power. He notes Smith's durability is questionable after the Krylov loss. However, Cody won't bet at -600 due to lack of value.

"I think he wins... but at minus 600 it's hard to say there's really any meat on the bone here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Petrino, noting his physicality, wrestling, and youth advantage over the aging Smith. He highlights Petrino's takedowns in every UFC fight and his ability to push a high pace. He warns that Smith could capitalize on a mistake with a submission, but believes Petrino is the much better wrestler and more likely to win minutes. He does not lay the -600 price but is confident in Petrino's victory.

"it should be VOR all day here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Vitor Petrino. He also notes the risk due to Petrino's cardio and Smith's submission threat. Vreeland says he is staying away from betting the -500 line because Anthony Smith has screwed bettors over before when written off. He acknowledges Smith's grappling skills but thinks Petrino will knock him out if he fights smart.

"I'm staying away from betting the minus 500 line because Anthony Smith has has screwed us over in the past"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Jeff Fox picks Vitor Petrino but is wary of betting the -500 line. He believes Petrino will knock out Anthony Smith if he keeps his distance and throws bombs, as Smith has no chin left. However, Fox notes that Petrino got tired in his last fight, and Smith still has great jiu-jitsu. If Petrino grapples and tires himself out, he could get submitted. Fox calls it an IQ test for Petrino and says he is staying away from parlays involving this fight due to the risk.

"obviously patrino is to pick here uh as long as he doesn't attack Smith's family I think he's gonna knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is 11-0 and has developed in every aspect of his MMA game. He came in as a power puncher but now implements a grapple-heavy approach. He will put big punches on Smith, take him down, and grind him out over 15 minutes, showing that Smith is over the hill.

"give me patrino and patrino by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino but with hesitation, noting Petrino is still green, makes mistakes, and hasn't faced high-level competition. He thinks Smith is washed but could be competitive. Paul sees Petrino as a fade candidate at this price but expects him to win.

"I'm almost thinking that Vitor Petrino is that guy because he's suspect to me..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing his physicality, takedown defense, and knockout power. He believes Anthony Smith struggles against athletic, powerful opponents and often shells up under pressure. He notes Petrino's composed striking and low kicks, and expects him to exploit Smith's weaknesses, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going to go with uh Vito patrino put him putting him away"
WIN vs Tyson Pedro
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 27 of 75 36% 33 of 82 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:24
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 60 50% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:16
Tyson Pedro 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Vitor Petrino 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 24 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:08
Tyson Pedro 0 5 of 14 35% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 27 of 75 36% 16 of 59 4 of 8 7 of 8 25 of 72 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 30 of 60 50% 3 of 29 11 of 15 16 of 16 29 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 10 of 28 35% 5 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 11 of 24 45% 0 of 13 4 of 4 7 of 7 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 1 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 14 of 22 63% 1 of 6 5 of 8 8 of 8 13 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 5 of 14 35% 2 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick because of everything I mentioned he hits harder he's more athletic he's faster"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.

"I gotta go patrino here just due to the fact that anytime Tyson Pedro reaches the second round he just has nothing left"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.

"the key here though Paul sha is the ground game yeah 100%... petrino's got an ability to go out there and get the takedowns once he does get you to the ground he's got smothering top control"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.

Petrino by knockout, round 2
"I think patrino wins this fight pretty much anywhere it goes and I think that this is the fight that we'll see him actually go out there and get another finish likely probably by by the second round as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.

"Patrina is the pick for me... I like what I see from Vitor patrino... he's proven to me that he's going to have a big Advantage if he gets out of the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.

TKO win in round 2
"I'm going to say in round two towards the end of it we see Pedro start to slow down and Petrino start to muscle his way forward and get a TKO win in round two"
KO (punch) R2 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 1 8 of 26 30% 14 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Modestas Bukauskas 0 9 of 19 47% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Modestas Bukauskas 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 1 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Modestas Bukauskas 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 9 of 19 47% 5 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 6 of 21 28% 4 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 5 of 12 41% 1 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Vitor Petrino
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Petrino (-218), Bukauskas (+180)

Round 1
The second of three undefeated Brazilians on the card takes center stage next, as Petrino (9-0, 2-0 UFC) aims to pick up his 10th win as a pro at the expense of Bukauskas (15-5, 3-3 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly shortly between these two light heavyweights, but before they do, referee Marc Goddard has to clock them in. A brief tap of the gloves leads to a faked kick from Bukauskas, who looks for his range and manages to plant his shin on Petrino’s calf early. Bukauskas fires off a head kick to follow, and Petrino’s guard is up well in time to defend. Bukauskas comes up short with another high kick, and he parries a jab and whiffs with a low kick. Bukauskas protects his face from an oncoming head kick, and he pokes at the lead calf. Petrino paws out a jab and absorbs a thumping calf kick, and he tosses another high kick that does not find its target. Jabs are attempted from both sides, and Bukauskas reaches out with a left hook and blocks a kick aimed at his temple. Petrino doubles up on a jab and fires off a left hook that grazes the hair, and they reset with a jab from both men. Petrino sneaks in a jab, and he takes a calf kick and attempts a takedown. When he trips Bukauskas up, the Brazilian elects to lift Bukauskas in the air and slam him down with a powerbomb seen in the professional wrestling circuits. When Bukauskas looks to scramble, Petrino continues maintaining top position while shifting into half guard. Bukauskas defends himself from any ground-and-pound by hanging onto Petrino’s forearms, and the subsequent inactivity prompts Goddard to issue a warning. Petrino scores a pair of punches, and Bukauskas bucks off and starts striking back. A few more short punches from Petrino end the low-paced frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petrino

Round 2
The light heavyweights touch gloves, and Goddard steps in 15 seconds into the round to command that Bukauskas get his mouthpiece replaced, and that the commission get it together. When they resume after the awkward pause, both men go for big strikes, and they partially connect.
Bukauskas looks to settle down with a jab, and as soon as he sits down on it, Petrino slides to the side and uncorks a short but lethal left hook that completely flatlines Bukauskas. The back of Bukauskas’ head clatters off the floor as his eyes roll back, and an attentive Goddard leaps in before Petrino can clobber him with any additional strikes.
Bukauskas tries to get back to his feet and motion that he was just flash knocked down, but he needs help standing up as commission and medical officials rush to his aid. This is a massive victory for the still-undefeated Petrino, who has performed finishes in eight of his 10 pro wins to date.

The Official Result
Vitor Petrino def. Modestas Bukauskas R2 1:03 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but is not super confident. He notes Petrino is dangerous with power and athleticism, but can be sloppy and dropped. Bukauskas is a good striker with decent takedown defense. Angelo thinks Petrino's relentless aggression will win him the fight, but he leaves Petrino out of parlays because Bukauskas could play spoiler at plus money.

Bukauskas is a great underdog at +250, Petrino left out of parlays
"I am confident not super confident but I do think vtor wins this fight because cuz we have this guy's a dog he doesn't care he'll get dropped he'll keep coming"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by knockout in the second round. He criticizes Bukauskas as a boring point fighter and praises Petrino's evolving skillset, including takedowns and cardio. He believes Petrino can win by any method but prefers the knockout. He notes Petrino's physical strength and ability to go 15 minutes.

"I'll say knocks out psk just because I I would love that for that to happen um so I'll say knockout for patrino and I'll say it happens in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Vitor Petrino, describing him as a physical freak with one-punch knockout power, strong wrestling, and submission skills. He notes that Petrino is still evolving and should be able to steamroll Bukauskas. Levi points out Bukauskas' poor striking defense, with his chin often in the air, and his history of being knocked out. He sees Bukauskas as a low-volume kickboxer who can be overwhelmed. Levi expects Petrino to finish the fight, possibly in the second round.

Petrino wins by KO/TKO, Petrino wins in round 2
"I think he steamrolls Bukauskas... I'm leaning towards him steamrolling Bukauskas to be quite frank with you."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James is quite confident in Petrino, stating he has all the upside in every aspect of the fight: knockout, submission, and decision. He believes Petrino deserves to be a big favorite and that Bukauskas' only path to victory is if Petrino gasses or if it becomes a low-volume point striking affair, which he does not see happening. He does not specify a method of victory but is confident Petrino gets the win.

"I like patrino here I think he has all the upside in every different aspect of the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has shown a solid gas tank for light heavyweight and is working on his jiu-jitsu, as seen in his last fight. He has speed, power, and explosiveness that will trouble Bukauskas. Petrino can either knock him out or use his grappling advantage to take him down and grind him out. The -200 range is a good spot to jump in.

surprised he's only around -200; thinks that's a damn good spot
"I like Petrino a lot in this spot and I'm kind of surprised that he's only around that minus 200 range... I think that's a damn good spot to jump in on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas as an underdog over Vitor Petrino. He highlights Bukauskas' experience and reach advantage, and notes his impressive performance against Tyson Pedro on short notice. The Guru believes Bukauskas is underrated and that Petrino may struggle with the reach and stand-up. He also mentions Bukauskas was arguably robbed against Marcin Prachnio. The Guru likes Bukauskas' odds.

underdog odds
"I'm going with another Underdog here I'm going with mestas bowkus over VOR patrino... I like his odds there"
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:42 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 44 of 81 54% 72 of 111 4 of 6 66% 2 0 8:39
Marcin Prachnio 0 55 of 88 62% 147 of 185 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 16 of 33 48% 20 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
Marcin Prachnio 0 32 of 44 72% 66 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Vitor Petrino 0 11 of 15 73% 30 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:38
Marcin Prachnio 0 2 of 5 40% 56 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 17 of 33 51% 22 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:40
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 39 53% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 44 of 81 54% 32 of 68 9 of 10 3 of 3 24 of 58 1 of 1 19 of 22
Marcin Prachnio 55 of 88 62% 25 of 54 21 of 25 9 of 9 41 of 73 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 16 of 33 48% 9 of 26 6 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 7
Marcin Prachnio 32 of 44 72% 12 of 23 14 of 15 6 of 6 21 of 32 11 of 12 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 11 of 15 73% 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 11
Marcin Prachnio 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 17 of 33 51% 13 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 39 53% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 3 18 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but warns against including him in parlays, citing the recent trend of undefeated prospects losing. He notes Petrino's power and offensive wrestling but poor takedown defense. Prachnio has veteran savvy and power, but his chin is questionable. He sees Petrino having multiple ways to win but lacks confidence.

No bets yet, waiting for props
"Vitor Petrino is the pick no bets yet but we'll see when these props drop"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round knockout. He was impressed by Petrino's wrestling in his last fight, taking down Anton Turkalj seven times. He notes that Prachnio has been knocked out by lesser strikers and has poor durability. He believes Petrino can knock him out on the feet or take him down and finish him. He mentions that Prachnio's path to victory is leg kicks and running away, but he doesn't think the fight goes to decision.

first round knockout
"I'll say he knocks him out on the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his power and youth. He notes Prachnio has a questionable chin and has been knocked out early in the UFC. He thinks Petrino will crack him early. He says there's no value at -300 but Petrino should win.

Petrino by KO/TKO, under 1.5 rounds
"Petrino will be the pick but minus 300 there's really nothing there for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino because he is too violent for Prachnio, who has become a safe fighter after being knocked out. Petrino's reckless pressure and durability will force Prachnio out of his comfort zone. However, Prachnio could win if he takes Petrino down or lands a switch kick, but Petrino's ability to keep coming makes him the pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I just think he's too violent for Prochnio."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Petrino, citing his knockout power and aggressive style. He notes that Prachnio has a questionable chin, having been knocked out three times in the UFC. Levi acknowledges Petrino's cardio concerns due to his high-energy approach but believes he will expose Prachnio's chin early. He is not interested in betting at minus-300 but picks Petrino to win.

"I think Vitor is going to be the guy that goes back and exposes that chin of Marcin pratch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James believes Petrino has all the advantages: youth, power, physicality, durability, and strength. He thinks Prachnio may be the better technical mixed martial artist, but Petrino's raw attributes will overwhelm him. He predicts a first-round knockout, as he expects Petrino to land on Prachnio's chin and finish the fight.

Vitor Petrino wins by KO in round 1; Vitor Petrino inside the distance
"I think petrino's gonna Land one on pretnia's chin and I think it's going to be night night"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has big knockout power and durability, and he can cut off the cage to prevent Prachnio from using his karate style. Prachnio is not a good enough grappler to hold Petrino down, and Petrino will eventually land a knockout, likely early in the fight.

round 1 knockout
"give me Vitor Petrino by knockout I actually think it comes pretty early as well let's call it round one."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino, noting his power and wrestling. He thinks Prachnio has only beaten low-level competition and will be overwhelmed. He mentions Petrino's cardio looked good in his last fight. He expects a finish or a clear decision.

Petrino by KO/TKO or decision
"I think Petrino mixes in those takedowns if he doesn't melt him with a big right hand"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino to win by KO, citing Prachnio's poor chin and lack of finishing potential. He notes Prachnio was KO'd by Sam Alvey and others, while Petrino is a physical freak with dangerous striking. He acknowledges Petrino's grappling issues but believes his finishing power is decisive.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go with him getting this one done by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino because he is a bully and brawler who doesn't gas easily and has a great chin. Prachnio is a technical karate fighter who has become safe after being knocked out, and Petrino's relentless pressure and power should overwhelm him. However, Petrino is a mess and could be taken down or knocked out, but his violence is likely too much for Prachnio.

Petrino opened at -263, currently -278; Prachnio opened at +199, currently +238. Zane says odds should not get wider.
"I got to pick a guy like Patrino light heavyweight. It's just the right division for him for that kind of fight."
Tyson Pedro - Fight History
LOSS vs Vitor Petrino
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 27 of 75 36% 33 of 82 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:24
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 60 50% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:16
Tyson Pedro 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Vitor Petrino 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 24 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:08
Tyson Pedro 0 5 of 14 35% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 27 of 75 36% 16 of 59 4 of 8 7 of 8 25 of 72 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 30 of 60 50% 3 of 29 11 of 15 16 of 16 29 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 10 of 28 35% 5 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 11 of 24 45% 0 of 13 4 of 4 7 of 7 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 1 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 14 of 22 63% 1 of 6 5 of 8 8 of 8 13 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 5 of 14 35% 2 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick because of everything I mentioned he hits harder he's more athletic he's faster"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.

"I gotta go patrino here just due to the fact that anytime Tyson Pedro reaches the second round he just has nothing left"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.

"the key here though Paul sha is the ground game yeah 100%... petrino's got an ability to go out there and get the takedowns once he does get you to the ground he's got smothering top control"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.

Petrino by knockout, round 2
"I think patrino wins this fight pretty much anywhere it goes and I think that this is the fight that we'll see him actually go out there and get another finish likely probably by by the second round as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.

"Patrina is the pick for me... I like what I see from Vitor patrino... he's proven to me that he's going to have a big Advantage if he gets out of the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.

TKO win in round 2
"I'm going to say in round two towards the end of it we see Pedro start to slow down and Petrino start to muscle his way forward and get a TKO win in round two"
WIN vs Anton Turkalj
KO (punches) R1 2:12 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Anton Turkalj 0 8 of 24 33% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Anton Turkalj 0 8 of 24 33% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 16 of 29 55% 12 of 24 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anton Turkalj 8 of 24 33% 3 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 10 6 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 16 of 29 55% 12 of 24 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anton Turkalj 8 of 24 33% 3 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 10 6 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Angelo picks Anton Turkalj and has a half-unit bet on him at -103 (basically even money). He notes that Anton's incredible pace could exhaust Tyson Pedro, who gasses hard. Anton has diverse striking and aggressive takedowns. Despite Tyson's power and grappling, Anton's pace should take over as the fight goes on.

Half unit bet at -103
"I like Anton here I've got a small half a unit bet on him at minus 103 that's basically even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Big Brady leans toward Anton Turkalj, noting Pedro's poor cardio and first-round-or-bust style. He thinks Turkalj can survive the first round and take over with takedowns and pressure. He predicts a second-round submission.

live bet on Turkalj if Pedro wins first round
"I'll say he survives the first round and gets a second round sub here turkolly second round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Cody picks Turkalj, noting that Pedro is a one-round fighter with poor cardio and wrestling. He believes Turkalj's wrestling and pace will wear Pedro down in the later rounds. Cody suggests that the best play might be to bet Turkalj after the first round when his odds might be better.

"he's still the pick I'm not chasing any value here he's the pick but best suited to probably just now bet him after the first round when you might be able to get that plus money back"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro despite the public leaning towards Turkalj. He is not impressed with Turkalj's skills, calling him tough but unathletic. Levi notes that Pedro is more skilled and has a chip on his shoulder after a poor performance. However, he acknowledges Pedro's history of fading after the first round and says it could be a sweaty fight. He is not laying money on Pedro.

Levi says the line is a pick'em and he is not laying it because Pedro has burned people before.
"I'm gonna pick Tyson Pedro to win this fight and I think Tyson Pedro would have been a bigger favorite had that last fight not taken place."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Lucrative James acknowledges that Anton Turkalj has good cardio and a solid chin, but he believes Tyson Pedro has finishing upside early with faster, more sneaky strikes like high kicks. He notes that Pedro's gas tank may be overblown, as he competed into the third round against Modestas Bukauskas. James sees Pedro winning the first round and then needing only one more round to secure a decision, though he expects Turkalj to dominate round three. He picks Pedro against the grain, but his confidence is low, calling it a close fight.

Mentions looking at Anton Turkalj round three finish prop, but no bet confirmed.
"I'm actually going to pick Tyson Pedro in this fight... I'm gonna go against the grain I know everyone's on Turkish I'm gonna say Pedro gets the win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Turkalj is on a two-fight losing streak but showed good wrestling and top pressure in his debut. Pedro has a submission threat but fades in deep waters. Turkalj's takedowns and heavy top pressure should wear on Pedro, who lacks the explosivity of Turkalj's previous opponent. Turkalj should win by decision.

"give me turkolly here and I'm going to take to college win by a decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Paul picks Turkalj, agreeing that Pedro has never impressed him and that Turkalj's wrestling and cardio should be the difference. He notes that Pedro's training at City Kickboxing might help, but he's not buying into a one-camp transformation. Paul sees Turkalj securing takedowns and controlling the fight.

"is the pick for me as well I've never really been a Tyson pager guy either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Anton Turkalj, stating that Turkalj is not good. He notes that Pedro's grappling is underrated, with submissions over Saparbek Safarov and Paul Craig, and a win over Khalil Rountree on the ground. Turkalj's only chance is grappling, but Pedro's ground game is the best part of his game. He believes Pedro will win, likely by submission or knockout.

"Tyson Pedro's gonna win this fight"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 45 of 81 55% 54 of 90 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:01
Tyson Pedro 0 44 of 109 40% 56 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 8 of 19 42% 10 of 21 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:46
Tyson Pedro 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Modestas Bukauskas 0 18 of 25 72% 19 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 35 31% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Modestas Bukauskas 0 19 of 37 51% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Tyson Pedro 0 23 of 49 46% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 45 of 81 55% 18 of 45 20 of 27 7 of 9 39 of 74 5 of 6 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 44 of 109 40% 25 of 88 12 of 13 7 of 8 34 of 95 10 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 8 of 19 42% 5 of 12 2 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 10 of 25 40% 6 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 3 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Modestas Bukauskas 18 of 25 72% 5 of 9 8 of 9 5 of 7 18 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 11 of 35 31% 3 of 27 5 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Modestas Bukauskas 19 of 37 51% 8 of 24 10 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 32 5 of 5 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 23 of 49 46% 16 of 42 5 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 37 9 of 12 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Tyson Pedro
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pedro (-240), Bukauskas (+200)

Round 1
The prelims conclude with a banger at 205 pounds, as Australia’s own Pedro (9-3, 5-3 UFC) welcomes back Bukauskas (13-5, 1-3 UFC) to the organization after a year and so back in Cage Warriors. With 20 total finishes in their 22 triumphs, referee Steve Perceval will almost certainly be needed while the judges may not. The match begins with a glove touch, and Bukauskas opens up with a spinning wheel kick. Pedro is well out of the way before that reaches him, and he backs off when Bukauskas hurls a big right hand at him. Pedro absorbs a stiff leg kick, and he looks for a few jabs. Bukauskas catches him on the way in with a right hand and swats away a push kick that comes his way, and he whips a high kick up that is blocked. Pedro stalks him down and scores a left hand, but Bukauskas rings his bell with a heavy left hook. Bukauskas spins with a back kick from up close, and Pedro is able to close in and evade it. The Aussie walks forward with a body kick, and he clinches up with his man while grinning like a banshee. Pedro appears to land a knee to the cup, but it goes uncalled as Pedro trips Bukauskas down to the mat. Landing in side control, Pedro slams down a short elbow to show he means business. Pedro attempts to pass guard, but Bukauskas is able to keep him from doing so and turn to his knees. Pedro holds him down, and he drops down with a guillotine choke and rolls Bukauskas over to his back. Pedro stands back up and somersaults to try to pass guard, but Bukauskas stands back up. They collide with punches, and Bukauskas appears no worse for wear after taking a left on the temple. Pedro fires off a kick to the ribcage, and he leans in to punch but Bukauskas slides out of the way. Bukauskas winds up with an overhand right, and Pedro times a short left counter. Bukauskas spins with a back kick that pushes Pedro back, and he tags Pedro as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pedro
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pedro

Round 2
The second round opens with a stomping low kick to the knee from the Lithuanian, and Pedro is walking him down but does not appear to have the same steam on his strikes. Bukauskas dips a punch and swings a left hand over the top, and he slaps a kick in the side. Pedro dodges a one-two and lumbers forward, getting off a short left hand to the chest before escaping. Pedro intercepts a low kick to reach a left hand over the top, and he kicks the side and just avoids a sweeping left hook. Pedro slaps a kick low and backs off when Bukauskas advances to throw bombs. Bukauskas strides ahead, and a right hand lands at the very edge of it and snaps his foe’s head back. Pedro releases a front kick, and the ball of his foot crashes straight into the cup. Bukauskas collapses to the mat as Perceval calls time, and it is unintentional and the latter declares it as such. After about 45 seconds, Bukauskas is remarkably good to go, and Pedro reintroduces himself with three kicks to the side that are not too low. Bukauskas swats a left hook on the jaw, and Pedro continues to wade forward despite eating strikes. Pedro scores a left and then looses a kick to the other side of the body, and he pushes forward to tie his man up. Bukauskas turns him around as they slowly jockey for position, and he whiffs on a spinning back elbow that Pedro ducks. Bukauskas gets in a left hook as he comes forward, and Pedro belts him in the ribs with a kick. A missed spinning wheel kick from “The Baltic Gladiator” punctuates the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pedro
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 3
The light heavyweights touch ‘em up to begin the final round, much to the surprise of some. Pedro strikes first in the period with a half-hearted kick to the liver, and he slides back as Bukauskas spins with an inaccurate wheel kick. Pedro pushes out a front kick with his right leg and a body kick with his left, keeping his opponent at bay. Pedro intercepts an advancing Bukauskas with a short left hook, and he sees a series of punches coming and misses. Pedro ducks them and pushes forward into a clinch, and he whips a kick that brushes past the shoulders of his opponent. Bukauskas strings two punches together, missing on a third, as Pedro backs away in time. They kick at the same time, and Pedro hops back. “The Baltic Gladiator” connects with an overhand right, and Pedro replies with a teep kick to the sternum. Bukauskas punches and attempts a standing vertical elbow, and a small cut has developed on the bridge of the Aussie’s nose. Pedro lands a kick to the ribs, prompting Bukauskas into action. As Bukauskas lets go with his hands, Pedro pushes through them to shove Bukauskas back to the wire. Bukauskas breaks off, absorbs a kick to the chest and backs away as Pedro swarms him with labored punches. Pedro grabs hold of his man to slow him down, and Bukauskas lifts up a knee to the midsection. Bukauskas knees the hip and then thigh as his gas tank betrays him, and he connects with one on the cup. Pedro groans, and they do not pause. Instead, they separate, and Bukauskas attacks with all his might. Spinning with an elbow and throwing everything he has into one final, mostly inaccurate, barrage, but it is a good look while Pedro runs away. The dreadful slog of a fight comes to a merciful conclusion, and it could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)

The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Tyson Pedro via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Angelo picks Tyson Pedro despite acknowledging the line movement from -1000 to -250, which he attributes to sharp bettors. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas is the better striker with solid takedown defense, but Pedro's grappling and power could be decisive. However, he is not confident enough to bet on Pedro at the current odds, though he may include him in a Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry.

May include in Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry
"I'm still picking Pedro here the line movement again is from the Sharks not from the public"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Big Brady is not a fan of either fighter but thinks Pedro has enough power to knock out Bukauskas, who has been knocked out multiple times. He expects Bukauskas to be winning until he gets caught. He predicts a first-round knockout for Pedro but says he's staying away from betting.

first round knockout
"I think Pedro knocks him out at some point ... I'll say he does it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Cody picks Pedro but is not confident due to the -240 price and Pedro's untested competition since returning. He notes Pedro's striking looks improved and his grappling may have gotten better during time off. He thinks Bukauskas is one-dimensional and Pedro can stay outside and be aggressive. However, he calls Pedro a fraud and won't bet him.

"I'll pick Pedro for this purposes of picking but like I I I think this guy's a fraud"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Connor picks Pedro, believing that his improved feinting will be enough to confuse Bukauskas and allow Pedro to pick up wins he should be getting. He thinks Pedro's feints will throw a huge wrench in Bukauskas's game, as Bukauskas tends to bite on feints and is not good at responding to pressure. Connor acknowledges that Pedro hasn't faced a decent boxer yet, but he thinks the feints are a significant improvement.

"I think that the faints are probably enough. They're enough to get Pedro into the middle into the middle area of light heavyweight that he should be occupying."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Bukauskas is the better technical striker and has shown he can be competitive at UFC level (close fight with Mihajlovic). Pedro's wins over Villanueva and Hunsucker are over low-level competition. Pedro's wrestling is unimpressive and he gassed against Shogun. Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and outpoint Pedro. The odds opened at -1000 for Pedro, creating value on Bukauskas at +600. Durability is a slight concern but Bukauskas should win a decision.

"I think you're getting a damn good price tag on probably the better fighter here in bukowsk is but a lot of people don't want to see that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Paul picks Pedro but dislikes the -240 line. He notes Pedro has never landed a takedown in the UFC and his wins are over low-level opponents. He thinks Bukauskas could pull an upset but Pedro is the official pick. He won't bet it.

"I don't love betting him at minus 240"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Modestas Bukauskas, noting Bukauskas's recent KO win but concerns about his chin and taking the fight on short notice. He believes Pedro's leg kicks and confidence will lead to a first-round KO, as Bukauskas has been chinned before.

first round KO
"I'm gonna say Tyson Pedro first round finish over bakowskus"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Zane picks Bukauskas because he is a calm fighter who can keep up a decent pace and is more reliable in deep waters than Pedro, who tends to blow up when he can't crush someone early. He notes that Bukauskas is capable of staying in the fight and that Pedro's improvements (like feints) haven't been tested against decent opponents. However, he is hesitant because Bukauskas is not a fighter who creates cracks and wedges them open; he is too patient and passive.

"I guess I'll take Bukowski because I do know that yeah, like this, he is a fighter capable of keeping up a decent pace for, you know, a decent pace if it's brought to him for a long time."
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 1:05 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 1 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Harry Hunsucker 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 1 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Harry Hunsucker 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 4
Harry Hunsucker 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 4
Harry Hunsucker 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Angelo refuses to make a moneyline pick due to the absurd odds (Tyson Pedro at -800). He calls the odds 'insane' and 'stupid,' noting that Pedro is 2-3 in his last five with two stoppage losses, while Hunsucker lost to heavy hitters Justin Tafa and Tai Tuivasa. He says Tyson probably wins but advises against betting the moneyline. Instead, he recommends betting 'does not go the distance' and the under on rounds, as he expects a knockout.

Recommends betting 'does not go the distance' and under 1.5 rounds. Also suggests using Monkey Knife Fight knockout kings prop.
"frankly tyson probably wins but don't bet on any of that just bet on does not go the distance one of these buffoons is getting put out period"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Big Brady is confident in Tyson Pedro. He notes that Harry Hunsucker has poor skills and was easily taken down and finished by Jared Vanderaa. Pedro is a big favorite and has the advantage everywhere, especially on the ground with good ground and pound and submissions. Brady expects Pedro to take Hunsucker down and finish him in the first round by ground and pound. He is a fan of Hunsucker but acknowledges the skill gap.

Pedro by first round ground and pound
"i like pedro here to win paige to win my first round finish um i'll say first round ground and pound victory for tyson pedro here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Cody picks Pedro, emphasizing Hunsucker's poor competition and lack of durability. He thinks Pedro can win by leg kicks or takedowns, but warns about the banana peel pricing. He mentions a submission prop as a value play.

by submission (value play)
"i think you go pedro i i don't like to parlay props so i'm not going to but if you were going to play a straight play on tyson pedro you're going to look for that inside the distance and …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro to finish Harry Hunsucker in the first round. He jokes about Hunsucker's name and says Pedro will run the train on him. Levi is not sold on Pedro long-term but believes Hunsucker is not the guy to expose him. He expects a quick finish and notes that the under 1.5 rounds line is heavily juiced.

Says the under 1.5 rounds is minus 450 and jokes it should be under 1.5 minutes. Mentions that Pedro will finish him in the first round.
"Tyson Pedro's gonna finish him in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Pedro should win easily as Hunsucker is one of the worst fighters in the UFC, but the -750 price is terrible value. The host prefers betting the under 1.5 rounds or taking a small stab on Hunsucker by round 1 KO at +2200. He includes the under 1.5 in a four-leg parlay.

Under 1.5 rounds parlayed. Also mentions Hunsucker round 1 KO (+2200) as a small stab.
"I could not imagine playing minus 800 on tyson pedro yes he should smash here but this is a fight between two guys that hit very hard."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Paul picks Pedro, calling Hunsucker a 'cupcake matchup'. He notes Pedro's path to victory via leg kicks or takedowns, but acknowledges the -800 line offers no value. He mentions he put $40 on Hunsucker by KO at 25-1 as a small flier.

Hunsucker round 1 KO/TKO at 25-1 (small bet)
"tyson pedro inside the distance is like minus 500 um the under one and a half rounds is gacked to minus 400 it's like tyson pedro wins harry hunsucker sucks but there's really nothing you can do with this"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Tyson Pedro

The Guru predicts Tyson Pedro wins by kimura submission in round two. He describes Pedro throwing half kicks at range, dodging Hunsucker's wild onslaughts, and landing jabs and teeps. He sees Pedro taking Hunsucker down in round two, taking side control, and locking in the kimura. He notes that the kimura is Pedro's favorite submission.

Submission via kimura in round 2
"tyson pedro gets this one done by kimura submission in round two"
KO (leg kick and punches) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 1 22 of 29 75% 22 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Ike Villanueva 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 1 22 of 29 75% 22 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Ike Villanueva 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 22 of 29 75% 10 of 17 5 of 5 7 of 7 19 of 25 1 of 1 2 of 3
Ike Villanueva 4 of 22 18% 2 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 22 of 29 75% 10 of 17 5 of 5 7 of 7 19 of 25 1 of 1 2 of 3
Ike Villanueva 4 of 22 18% 2 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Angelo picks Tyson Pedro, believing he can get takedowns and win via grappling. He notes Villanueva has zero leg kick defense and only one takedown attempt against him in the UFC. However, he says the odds are crazy (Pedro almost -500) and he will watch the scales due to Pedro's multi-year layoff. He warns that if Pedro can't get takedowns, he'll get lit up.

"tyson's the pick but i think these odds are crazy he's almost a 500 favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Big Brady picks Tyson Pedro to win by knockout in the first round, citing Villanueva's poor chin and defensive liabilities. He notes that Villanueva has been finished many times and has terrible striking defense. Despite Pedro's long layoff, he expects Pedro to finish early, either by knockout or submission.

Win by knockout, first round
"Give me pedro to win I'll say knockout in that very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Cody picks Pedro, calling it a setup fight. He notes Pedro's submission skills and Villanueva's poor record. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He suggests Pedro inside the distance as a better bet than the moneyline.

Pedro inside the distance (-250); Pedro by submission (+125)
"tyson pedro should win this fight i'm picking win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Tyson Pedro

The host picks Tyson Pedro to win, including him in his quick picks. He also includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds, expecting a finish. He trusts Pedro more than Dean Barry.

Included in totals parlay under 1.5 rounds.
"i'd trust pedro a little bit more than barry honestly"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Paul agrees, noting Pedro's submission wins aged well and Villanueva's inability to grapple. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He questions the price but expects Pedro to win.

Pedro inside the distance
"pedro inside the distance is uh probably a lock"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He acknowledges Pedro's history of poor decision-making and long layoff, but believes he is the better technical fighter. He notes Villanueva has power but is terrible overall. He predicts both will have shaky moments on the feet, then Pedro will get a takedown and finish with an armbar. He references Pedro's past fights where he hurt opponents but then shot bad takedowns.

submission, armbar, first round
"i am going to pick him here i'm going to pick him by submission i'm actually going to pick him with an amber i think he'll end up on top go for a number"
LOSS vs Maurício Rua
TKO (punches) R3 0:43 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Dec 02, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 1 30 of 56 53% 62 of 94 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:20
Tyson Pedro 0 31 of 44 70% 36 of 49 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 10 of 21 47% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 41 73% 35 of 46 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
2 Maurício Rua 0 6 of 11 54% 36 of 47 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:33
Tyson Pedro 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 1 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Tyson Pedro 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 30 of 56 53% 23 of 45 2 of 3 5 of 8 12 of 26 1 of 2 17 of 28
Tyson Pedro 31 of 44 70% 21 of 33 9 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 33 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 10 of 21 47% 6 of 15 1 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 30 of 41 73% 20 of 31 9 of 9 1 of 1 20 of 30 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 6 of 11 54% 4 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7
Tyson Pedro 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Maurício Rua 14 of 24 58% 13 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 20
Tyson Pedro 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (straight armbar) R1 2:54 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · Jun 23, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 12 58% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 1 9 of 12 75% 10 of 13 0 of 4 0% 1 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 12 58% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 1 9 of 12 75% 10 of 13 0 of 4 0% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 12 58% 5 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 4
Tyson Pedro 9 of 12 75% 5 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 8 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 12 58% 5 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 4
Tyson Pedro 9 of 12 75% 5 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 8 3 of 4 0 of 0
Submission (kimura) R1 3:54 · UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Feb 11, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 0 12 of 23 52% 17 of 28 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:01
Saparbeg Safarov 0 8 of 22 36% 10 of 24 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 0 12 of 23 52% 17 of 28 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:01
Saparbeg Safarov 0 8 of 22 36% 10 of 24 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 12 of 23 52% 6 of 17 2 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 18 2 of 5 0 of 0
Saparbeg Safarov 8 of 22 36% 6 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 14 3 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 12 of 23 52% 6 of 17 2 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 18 2 of 5 0 of 0
Saparbeg Safarov 8 of 22 36% 6 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 14 3 of 6 1 of 2
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick because of everything I mentioned he hits harder he's more athletic he's faster"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.

"I gotta go patrino here just due to the fact that anytime Tyson Pedro reaches the second round he just has nothing left"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.

"the key here though Paul sha is the ground game yeah 100%... petrino's got an ability to go out there and get the takedowns once he does get you to the ground he's got smothering top control"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.

Petrino by knockout, round 2
"I think patrino wins this fight pretty much anywhere it goes and I think that this is the fight that we'll see him actually go out there and get another finish likely probably by by the second round as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.

"Patrina is the pick for me... I like what I see from Vitor patrino... he's proven to me that he's going to have a big Advantage if he gets out of the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.

TKO win in round 2
"I'm going to say in round two towards the end of it we see Pedro start to slow down and Petrino start to muscle his way forward and get a TKO win in round two"