UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic

Big Brady picks Rakić but thinks the line should be closer. He notes Rakić's superior striking volume and takedown defense, and expects him to win the first round strongly. He is concerned about Smith coming back too soon after a brutal beating, but acknowledges Smith's toughness and ability to take a shot. He predicts a decision win for Rakić.

Daniel Levi leans with Rakić, citing that Rakić is fresher, has more room for improvement, and will likely hit Smith with hard shots to the body and chin. He acknowledges Smith's experience and ability to come back late if Rakić fades, but believes the timing is right for Rakić. He also notes that Rakić was dropped by Devin Clark twice, which raises durability concerns, but still favors him.

Rakić is a strong wrestler with a top game that can crush Smith. Smith is good but not great at anything; Rakić should mix striking and grappling to control the fight. I expect a cautious approach leading to a decision win for Rakić, though the -275 line is a bit steep.

The host picks Aleksandar Rakić because the fight is only three rounds. He believes Rakić will outrange Smith with kicks and win the first two rounds comfortably, then survive the third. He notes Smith's wide stance leaves him open to leg kicks and body kicks, and that Smith has taken recent damage. He thinks if it were five rounds, Smith would win, but in three rounds Rakić's striking advantage prevails.

Big Brady picks Magny, believing Lawler is on the back end of his career and hesitant to throw. He thinks Magny will use his length and reach to pick Lawler apart from range and win a decision. He notes Lawler's only path to victory is a knockout, but doubts Lawler still has that power.

Daniel Levi picks Robbie Lawler at plus money, arguing that Lawler's level of competition has been much higher than Magny's recent opponents. He believes Lawler will crack Magny with hard shots in the first round, possibly getting a knockout, and that Magny's cardio advantage may only show in the third round. He acknowledges the risk of Lawler being past his prime but sees value in the underdog line.

Magny has good cardio, reach, and a clinch game that can stifle Lawler. Lawler is on a three-fight skid and has been out over a year; his form is uncertain. Magny should grind out a decision, but the -235 line is too high given Lawler's potential if he shows up with a leg-kick-heavy game plan.

The host picks Neil Magny, stating that Lawler's only chance is an early KO, but Lawler hasn't had a KO finish on the feet since Jake Ellenberger. He believes Magny will outrange Lawler with jabs, front kicks, and leg kicks, and that Lawler is injury-prone. He considers Magny a safe bet.

Big Brady picks Grasso, citing her speed advantage and ability to get in and out of range. He thinks Kim is slow and hits hard but will struggle with Grasso's volume. He expects a decision win, noting both fighters are not finishers and Kim has never been finished.

Daniel Levi picks Alexa Grasso by unanimous decision, noting that Grasso is moving up in weight and won't have to worry about takedowns. He points out that Ji Yeon Kim is tough but blocks punches with her face, so Grasso should land cleaner and more often. He expects Grasso to connect more and win a clear decision.

Grasso is the more versatile fighter with good kicks, takedowns, and jiu-jitsu. Kim has a reach advantage and solid boxing, but Grasso's forward movement and diverse offense should earn her a decision. However, the fight could be closer than the odds suggest, so I'm not betting heavily.

The host picks Alexa Grasso, citing that women moving up from strawweight have a higher talent level than flyweights. He notes Grasso's experience, grappling defense, and wins over Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Randa Markos. He expects Grasso to win a unanimous decision, possibly 30-27.

Big Brady is confident in Lamas, citing his elite competition history and superior wrestling and BJJ. He sees Algeo as a step down in competition and expects Lamas to win via ground-and-pound or submission, predicting a second-round finish. He notes Lamas' chin is a concern but Algeo is not a big puncher.

Daniel Levi picks Ricardo Lamas but is hesitant due to Lamas's age (38) and history of brutal knockouts. He believes Lamas is better everywhere and more experienced, but notes that Algeo is long and tough, and could potentially catch Lamas with a shot. He expects Lamas to win by unanimous decision but warns against the price.

Lamas is a veteran with far superior competition and a well-rounded game including kickboxing, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. Algeo's record is padded with cans and he struggled against wrestlers. Lamas will implement a grappling-heavy game plan and likely submit Algeo in the second round.

Big Brady picks Kasanganay but is hesitant, acknowledging Pitolo is being disrespected by the odds and should be a slight favorite. He thinks Kasanganay can grind out a decision by using his size, takedowns, and top control, but worries about Pitolo's power and finishing ability in the first round. He notes Kasanganay has only one finish in seven fights.

Daniel Levi picks Impa Kasanganay, citing his heart and ability to dig deep in tough spots, as seen on Contender Series. He believes Kasanganay's wrestling and clinch work will tire Pitolo, and that Pitolo has a history of making mistakes and getting finished. He expects Kasanganay to win by decision, though the first round could be a sweat due to Pitolo's power.

Kasanganay is more well-rounded with better striking and can wrestle if needed. Pitolo has power but poor cardio and has been submitted recently. Kasanganay should avoid early bombs and take over later, winning by decision via grappling and clinch work.

The host picks Maki Pitolo, noting that Impa Kasanganay has not fought good competition and his legs were chewed up in his Contender Series fight. He believes Pitolo's experience and ability to build momentum as the fight goes on will lead to a finish in the third round.

Big Brady picks Di Chirico slightly, noting both fighters are low volume but Di Chirico averages more takedowns and Cummings has 66% takedown defense. He expects a close fight likely going to decision, possibly a split decision, and thinks Di Chirico will be the more active fighter.

Daniel Levi picks Alessio Di Chirico, believing he is at a better point in his career and that Cummings is slowing down. He notes that Di Chirico has fought tougher competition recently (Kevin Holland, Makhmud Muradov) and gave them competitive fights, while Cummings has looked stagnant. He expects a slow, methodical fight with Di Chirico edging out a split decision.

Cummings has better jiu-jitsu and a stronger resume, with wins over decent competition. Di Chirico may have the edge on the feet, but Cummings can get the fight to the ground and grind out a decision. I lean Cummings but not with high confidence.

The host believes Alessio Di Chirico is underrated and has shown good takedown defense and a solid chin. He notes Di Chirico had close fights with Kevin Holland and Makhmud Muradov, landing big shots. He expects Di Chirico to keep the fight standing and catch Cummings with a TKO.

Daniel Levi picks Alex Caceres, calling him a gatekeeper who measures if a fighter belongs in the UFC. He believes Springer is not ready for this level, citing his loss to Chris Gruetzemacher and knockout loss to Julian Erosa. He expects Caceres to use his left hand and footwork to pick Springer apart, possibly getting a knockout.

The host picks Alex Caceres as an underdog, citing that Giga Chikadze has been unimpressive in the UFC, with split decisions over Brandon Davis, Jamal Emmers, and Irwin Rivera. He believes Caceres is a step up in competition and can stuff Chikadze's takedowns. He expects Caceres to win a close split decision, using his kicks and experience.

Big Brady is high on Sean Brady, seeing improvement each fight. He believes Brady's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, noting Aguilera's susceptibility to being taken down and his poor cardio. He predicts a third-round TKO, citing Aguilera's fading cardio and Brady's finishing upside in the smaller cage.

Daniel Levi picks Sean Brady, praising his fight IQ and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Brady is a smart fighter who won't stand and bang with a dangerous striker like Aguilera, but will take the fight to the mat where he has a clear advantage. He expects Brady to win by unanimous decision, possibly with a knockout.

Brady is a compact fighter who overwhelms opponents with power and blitzing attacks. Aguilera faded in his last fight and his gas tank is questionable; Brady's relentless forward pressure will likely lead to a finish as Aguilera tires. I expect a second-round TKO.

The host believes Sean Brady's grappling will be the deciding factor. He notes that Brady showed good striking defense against Ishmael Nerdiyev and can close distance to use his wrestling. He expects Aguilera to come forward aggressively, leaving openings for Brady to get takedowns. He predicts Brady will wear Aguilera down and finish by submission in the third round.

Big Brady favors Whitmire slightly in striking and wrestling, expecting her to get takedowns and control the fight. However, he is hesitant because Whitmire has been submitted in all three losses, and Viana has good BJJ. He notes that Viana was unable to submit Hannah Cifers, which gives him some confidence, but he cannot bet this fight at the current line.

Daniel Levi picks Polyana Viana, arguing that her ceiling is higher than Whitmire's. He points out that Viana has beaten Amanda Ribas (who Whitmire lost to) and that Whitmire's ground game is questionable. He believes Viana can finish with an armbar or triangle, but acknowledges she is inconsistent.

Viana has better overall jiu-jitsu and both women are finishers, so the fight likely ends via submission. Whitmire is overrated due to recency bias; Viana's submission skills should be the difference. I see a first-round rear-naked choke.

The host favors Polyana Viana due to her jiu-jitsu world champion background and better stand-up. He notes that Viana's back is against the wall and she knows a loss could mean being cut. He believes Whitmire's only path is grappling, but Viana has the jiu-jitsu to avoid submissions. He also mentions Viana's reach advantage and better striking.

Big Brady is confident in Martin, citing her wrestling and BJJ advantage over Cifers, who has been finished in five of six losses. He sees Martin getting Cifers down and finding a submission or ground-and-pound finish. He likes the inside the distance prop at +230.

Daniel Levi picks Mallory Martin but is hesitant due to the high price. He believes Martin's path to victory is takedowns and ground control, as Cifers struggles on the mat. However, he thinks the line is too high and that Cifers could win if it stays standing. He expects a close fight, possibly a split decision.

Martin wants the fight on the ground where she can submit or ground-and-pound, but she's unproven at UFC level. Cifers has power and could keep it standing, but her fight IQ is questionable and she's on a losing streak. The -325 line is too steep; I'm not confident enough to bet it.

The host picks Mallory Martin, citing that Hannah Cifers has taken too much damage recently and is on a losing streak. He notes Cifers' quick turnaround after a TKO loss and believes Martin's youth and freshness will be key. He predicts a close decision win for Martin.