Alexa Grasso

Angelo picks Maycee Barber, believing she has improved more than Alexa Grasso and that Grasso has lost confidence. He thinks Barber's wrestling and pressure will be key, but notes the odds are a touch wide given their history. He advises waiting for weigh-ins before betting due to Barber's weight cut issues.

Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win by decision. He notes that Barber has improved significantly since their first fight, now on a seven-fight winning streak. He expects the fight to be close on the feet but believes Barber's strength and physicality will be the difference, as she can push Grasso against the cage and take her down. He cautions that Barber must avoid getting reversed and submitted, as happened in the first fight, but if she stays on top and is smart, she should win.

Cody thinks the fight is close to 50-50 and sees value on Grasso as the underdog. He notes Grasso's regression but believes Barber's takedown defense is poor and Grasso can win the rematch. He's hesitant but picks Grasso due to the plus money.

Connor notes that Barber has tightened up her striking and evolved a ton as a clinch fighter, landing nasty short shots, elbows, knees, and hockey punches. He believes Barber can force the clinch again and has only gotten better at winning that kind of fight, while Grasso has stagnated and become aimless. He points out that Grasso's recent performances show no plan or goal.

Daniel notes Barber is on a career-best win streak and physically matured, while Grasso has declined since her title win. He expects Barber to bully Grasso and avenge her earlier loss, securing a title shot.

The host initially liked Barber at -149 but missed the odds as they steamed to -153. He still leans Barber due to her power, improved scrambling, and ability to hold her own on the feet. Grasso is more technical but lacks power and is weak off her back. However, the host passes because the current odds (-153) reflect fair value and he cannot give Barber more than a 65% chance.

The host leans towards Grasso as the slicker striker, expecting her to out-strike Barber and win a close decision. He acknowledges Barber's improvements in grappling and clinch but thinks Grasso's technical striking and control will be enough. He notes the odds are wide due to recent momentum and sees value in the underdog.

Paul doesn't make a firm pick, calling it a dog or pass situation. He acknowledges the value on Grasso but doesn't commit to a side.

The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, citing her physical density and toughness. He believes Barber's pressure and improved grappling will overcome Alexa Grasso, who he thinks has stagnated. He notes Grasso's recent losses and predictable striking. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28, and suggests the UFC may favor Barber as a fresh contender.

Angelo picks Natália Silva confidently, calling her the future of the division. He notes Alexa Grasso is a former champion who never defended her belt and has struggled. He believes Silva's speed, accuracy, and mobility will give Grasso trouble finding her range. He suggests parlaying Silva with other favorite women on the card, as he thinks the women's fights provide stability.

Big Brady is confident in Natália Silva, noting she is younger, in her prime, and a better striker. He questions Alexa Grasso's form after a poor performance against Valentina Shevchenko, possibly due to injury. He thinks Silva can win by decision and may even mix in takedowns. He doesn't love the -220 price but believes Silva wins.

Connor picks Natália Silva, agreeing with Zane that Silva's speed and mobility will be too much for Grasso. He notes that Grasso's game is rudimentary and she tends to have the same exchanges repeatedly, while Silva can fight her way out of corners and land bigger shots. Connor believes Silva's athleticism and dynamic striking will earn her a win and a title shot.

The host believes Silva's style—perpetual movement, lateral movement, range management, and blitzing attacks—will frustrate Grasso and cause her to walk into big shots. He expects Silva to win clearly on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva, calling her 'the truth' of the division. He praises her striking, takedown defense, and ability to piece up opponents like Jasudavicius. He thinks Grasso's linear style and high guard are tailor-made for Silva's front kicks and lateral movement. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27, but notes the UFC may favor Grasso for the Guadalajara card.

Angelo picks Alexa Grasso despite acknowledging that Valentina Shevchenko likely won the last fight. He sees improvements in Grasso's game between the two fights, noting she won exchanges, rounds, and even dropped Valentina in the second fight. He believes the wrestling gap is tightening and the speed gap is widening, and that Grasso is younger, faster, and more creative. He placed half a unit on Grasso at -115, recognizing it's hard for a champion to win back the belt but thinks Grasso gets it done.

Big Brady acknowledges Shevchenko arguably won the second fight but notes her regression and Grasso's improvement. He also factors in the Mexican crowd and potential judging bias. He predicts Grasso wins a close decision.

Daniel picks Alexa Grasso to win the trilogy, arguing that Valentina hasn't evolved enough and that long-reigning champions rarely reclaim their belts. He notes Grasso's faster hands, higher volume, and finishing upside, while worrying about Grasso being taken down and controlled. He believes history favors Grasso and that she will make bigger improvements.

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexa Grasso because her trajectory is still upward while Valentina Shevchenko's is declining. He notes Shevchenko has lost a step in defensive grappling since the Taila Santos fight, and Grasso's striking and grappling have improved significantly. He believes Grasso's speed, cardio, and youth will be the deciding factors.

Jeff Fox agrees with Daniel Vreeland, noting Shevchenko's decline had started even before facing Grasso. He mentions Shevchenko's mindset of thinking she won the last fight is not good. He goes with the ascending fighter who is much younger and already beat her.

The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host only mentions Kayla Harrison vs Juliana Peña as the other title fight, not Shevchenko vs Grasso.

Shevchenko was a minus 800 favorite in the first fight and minus 160 in the second, now a plus 120 underdog. She was up 2-1 in the first before being submitted, and should have won the last fight if not for a bad scorecard. Expects Shevchenko to come even safer and cleaner, leaning on her wrestling to win on the scorecards.

Angelo picks Valentina Shevchenko despite her recent loss, believing she will wrestle heavy like she did against Maia. He notes her odds are the best since 2017 and compares it to Amanda Nunes getting her belt back. He acknowledges Grasso's skills but thinks Shevchenko's adjustments will lead to victory. He has no bet yet due to PTSD from UFC 293.

Big Brady picks Shevchenko, arguing that she was winning the first fight until a mistake. He notes Shevchenko outlanded Grasso in most rounds and has more tools on the feet. He believes Grasso's takedown defense is still poor and that Shevchenko's experience and skill will prevail. He predicts a dominant decision, 49-46 or 50-45.

Cody picks Grasso at plus 140, emphasizing the five-year age difference and Shevchenko's decline. He points out that Grasso won the first round in their first fight, was out-striking Shevchenko, and submitted her after a spinning back kick. He believes the momentum was with Grasso and that Shevchenko's cardio may not hold up. He also notes the 90% rematch stat and says Grasso has a lot of merit.

Daniel Levi picks Valentina Shevchenko despite acknowledging the historical trend of long-reigning champions losing immediate rematches. He notes that submission losses are easier to recover from than knockouts, and he believes Valentina's decline may be overstated. However, he admits his bitterness over missing the plus-200 line on Grasso influences his pick, and he hopes he is wrong because he would like to see the division move forward with fresh matchups.

Shevchenko had a clear grappling advantage in the first fight, controlling rounds 2 and 3 before getting caught in the fourth. She should make adjustments, trust her striking more to set up takedowns, and bank rounds early. Grasso may have improved takedown defense, but Shevchenko's strength and experience should prevail. I'm hesitant because of the similarity to Usman vs Edwards 2, but I still favor Shevchenko by decision.

Paul sides with Grasso as a slight underdog, citing Shevchenko's age (35) and recent vulnerability in fights against Taylor Santos and Jennifer Maia. He notes Grasso's youth (30) and improvement, and mentions a 90% stat where younger challengers who beat an older champion win the rematch. However, he is hesitant because the fight is in Vegas, not Mexico, and he may not bet it.

Angelo is confident in Valentina Shevchenko, stating she is better everywhere and will push Grasso around. He notes that Grasso is not a dangerous fighter and that Shevchenko should have no issues. Angelo sees this as a relief fight for Shevchenko after the Talia Santos fight.

Big Brady is confident in Valentina Shevchenko, citing her superior striking and grappling. He notes Grasso has struggled with grappling in the past, and Shevchenko can take her down at will and dominate on the mat. He predicts a third-round TKO for Shevchenko, dismissing the idea that Grasso can pull off an upset.

Cody believes Shevchenko is nearly unbeatable at 125 and that Grasso lacks the grappling to exploit her. He notes Shevchenko's takedown ability and well-rounded game will be too much. He expects a decision win for Shevchenko but won't bet the -700 moneyline; he would parlay it.

Connor is confident Shevchenko wins, citing her ability to control distance and bully opponents in the clinch. He notes Grasso's poor range fighting and lack of feints or timing variation, which will make it easy for Shevchenko to counter or clinch. He believes Grasso's only path is a knockout in the pocket or a submission from her back, both unlikely. He mentions Shevchenko's declining athleticism but says Grasso's stylistic shortcomings are a death sentence.

Jacob picks Valentina Shevchenko, but notes that Grasso's volume striking could cause problems early. He believes Shevchenko may need to use her wrestling to dominate. Jacob acknowledges a path for Grasso but ultimately sees Shevchenko as the more complete fighter.

Shevchenko is a fast, explosive striker with a good ground game. Grasso is a good striker but has struggled with takedowns. Shevchenko will likely take the fight to the ground and control Grasso, winning a decision or possibly a TKO finish.

Paul picks Shevchenko but prefers the over 4.5 rounds at plus money. He notes Grasso has improved grappling and has never been finished outside of a submission loss to Suarez. He sees the fight going the distance and thinks the over is a solid bet.

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko, believing her kicks will be the difference. He notes Grasso's boxing is good but she doesn't throw many kicks, and Shevchenko's top game could also be a factor. He predicts a decision win.

Angelo picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her takedown defense (60% but effective against top wrestlers like Carla Esparza) and striking volume. He notes that Viviane Araújo is a grappler who can strike but has a negative striking differential and conditioning issues. He believes Grasso will defend enough takedowns to out-strike Araújo and win a decision, especially as Araújo fades in later rounds.

Big Brady picks Alexa Grasso to win by decision. He cites the five-round distance as the key factor, noting that Araújo fades in three-round fights due to her high-energy style. He expects Araújo to have early success but fade in rounds 3-5, allowing Grasso to take over. He says he would consider Araújo in a three-round fight but not at five rounds. He will not bet this fight.

Cody picks Grasso to win, likely by decision, citing her superior volume and improved grappling. He notes that Araújo has low volume and may struggle in a five-round fight, but the price at -225 is steep. He also likes the over 90.5 significant strikes prop on PrizePicks, as Grasso has reached that in three-round fights and this is five rounds.

Connor also picks Grasso, emphasizing that since the Harig loss, wrestling has been the main problem for Grasso, but Araujo can get one-tracked and lose to fighters like Jessica Eye. He thinks Grasso can create enough challenge to make Araujo fall into traps. He notes that Grasso has had inconsistent performances but still favors her.

Grasso has youth, cardio, footwork, and combination striking advantages. Araújo has power but tends to slow down in later rounds, and this is a five-round fight. Grasso trains at altitude and has shown great cardio, while Araújo's best path is an early KO. Grasso should take over after the first round and win by decision, possibly finding a late finish. The host mentions being the 'women's MMA whisperer' and is confident in Grasso despite the chalky line.

Paul sees this as a great live betting opportunity. He thinks Araújo may have early success with takedowns and physicality, but her cardio is suspect at 35 and in her first five-round fight. He notes that Araújo has tired in third rounds historically, and Grasso's output should win out over five rounds. He picks Grasso by decision but doesn't love it.

The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso, acknowledging that 90% of people are picking her. He likes Araújo as an underdog but believes in Grasso's improvements, especially her hands. He notes Grasso's first-round finish over Joanne Calderwood and win over Maycee Barber. He predicts a technical boxing match with Grasso stuffing takedowns and winning the first three rounds, ultimately 48-47 by decision.

Angelo picks Joanne Wood as a pretty big underdog. He thinks the books are not giving her enough credit. He notes that while Alexa Grasso is undefeated at 125, Wood has only fought top competition and is incredibly well-rounded. He believes Grasso cannot bully or knock out Wood like her previous opponents did.

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He argues that Wood has excellent volume (6.71 significant strikes per minute) and can mix in takedowns, while Grasso has poor takedown defense (60%) and has been taken down by wrestlers like Suarez and Esparza. He notes that Wood's last loss was to Talia Santos, who is a beast, and that Wood looked good before that, including a win over Jessica Eye. He admits Wood might be washed but thinks the line is off.

Cody leans Grasso but acknowledges Wood's volume striking and durability. He notes Wood's technical boxing is poor and she gets hit clean, while Grasso lands sharper shots. He mentions Wood's recent losses and age, but thinks the fight could be close. He expects Grasso to win but not confidently.

Daniel Levi picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her improvement since moving up to flyweight, faster hands, and growing confidence. He notes Joanne Wood is hot-and-cold and may have mentally checked out after losing her title shot. He expects Grasso to win but cautions that the line at -235 is steep, and the fight could be a close decision due to poor judging. He suggests betting Grasso only if under -200.

The host picks Grasso but is not confident, citing her lack of finishing ability and the possibility of a close decision. He notes Wood's volume could sway judges if Grasso doesn't land significant strikes. He prefers the 'fight goes to decision' prop over the moneyline.

Paul picks Grasso but doesn't love the price. He thinks Wood's volume striking and front kicks could cause problems, but Grasso has improved her grappling and is younger. He sees the fight as close and competitive, possibly a split decision. He wouldn't fault someone for taking Wood as an underdog.

Big Brady slightly leans with the underdog Maycee Barber in a 50/50 fight. He thinks Barber will be the stronger, more aggressive fighter and land the harder shots. He notes that Grasso has struggled with her ground game and that Barber could get takedowns. He is not confident and says it could go either way, depending on whether judges favor volume or power.

Daniel Levi picks Maycee Barber, emphasizing her power advantage and finishing ability. He notes that Barber started her career with a three-fight KO streak and believes power overrides technique in women's weight classes. He acknowledges Grasso's technical striking but thinks Barber's power and ground-and-pound will be decisive. He also mentions that Barber is bigger and hits harder, and that the line movement favors her.

The host favors Grasso's superior boxing and technical striking, noting that Barber's kryptonite is a technical boxer who can stand her ground and counter. He questions Barber's recovery from ACL surgery and believes this is too tough a test for her return. He expects Grasso to outbox Barber over three rounds and win a decision.

Big Brady picks Grasso, citing her speed advantage and ability to get in and out of range. He thinks Kim is slow and hits hard but will struggle with Grasso's volume. He expects a decision win, noting both fighters are not finishers and Kim has never been finished.

Daniel Levi picks Alexa Grasso by unanimous decision, noting that Grasso is moving up in weight and won't have to worry about takedowns. He points out that Ji Yeon Kim is tough but blocks punches with her face, so Grasso should land cleaner and more often. He expects Grasso to connect more and win a clear decision.

Grasso is the more versatile fighter with good kicks, takedowns, and jiu-jitsu. Kim has a reach advantage and solid boxing, but Grasso's forward movement and diverse offense should earn her a decision. However, the fight could be closer than the odds suggest, so I'm not betting heavily.