Alex Caceres

Angelo picks Sean Woodson, citing his excellent boxing, reach management, and 84% takedown defense. He notes Woodson uses his length well and is a clean boxer. He expects Woodson to win a decision, as Alex Caceres is durable but not powerful. He is confident in Woodson's ability to keep the fight at distance.

Big Brady picks Sean Woodson by decision, citing his height and reach advantage, volume advantage, and the hometown crowd in St. Louis. He notes that Caceres has a black belt but rarely uses it, so this will be a striker vs. striker matchup. He expects Woodson to do more work over 15 minutes and not have to worry about takedowns, which should give him confidence to throw more volume.

Cody picks Woodson but is hesitant due to Woodson's inconsistency. He notes that Woodson has shown improvements in wrestling and cardio in recent fights, and his length is a major advantage at 145. Cody believes Woodson can outpoint Caceres on the feet and has the takedown defense to avoid submissions. However, he acknowledges that Caceres is a savvy veteran and Woodson has been chinny in the past. Cody ultimately sides with Woodson but is not confident.

Daniel Vreeland picks Sean Woodson, emphasizing his physical attributes (6'2" with 78-inch reach) and his ability to come back from adversity, as seen in the Luis Saldana fight. He believes Woodson's length and jab will be too much for Caceres, and that Woodson is ready to crack the top 15. He predicts a decision win.

The host confidently picks Woodson due to his length, jab, and distance management, which should neutralize Caceres' unorthodox striking. He notes Woodson's improved takedown defense and discipline, expecting him to outpoint Caceres over three rounds. He sees Caceres' grappling as a threat but doubts he can get the fight to the ground. The pick is confident, with a decision victory expected.

Paul picks Caceres as a slight underdog, citing his veteran savvy and ability to win scrambles. He notes that Caceres knocked out Julian Rosa, while Woodson lost to Rosa. Paul thinks the fight will be competitive and that Caceres has value at plus money. However, he is not confident enough to bet it, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He mentions that Woodson's improvements could make it close, but he leans towards Caceres.

Angelo sees Giga as the much better striker and dangerous, but worries about the long layoff (1.5 years) and takedown defense issues from past losses. He notes that Caceres is a tough veteran with good scrambles. He picks Giga but is undecided on betting him, as the layoff and Caceres' toughness give him pause.

Big Brady acknowledges Giga Chikadze's long layoff and loss to Calvin Kattar but sees this as a good matchup for him. He notes that Alex Caceres doesn't use his wrestling and prefers to strike, which favors Giga. He believes Giga is the better striker with more power and tools, and expects him to win a kickboxing fight by decision.

Cody is tempted by the underdog line on Caceres but ultimately picks Chikadze. He notes that Caceres has a grappling advantage but may not be able to get takedowns against a high-level striker. Chikadze's striking is elite and he should win if he keeps it standing. Cody is not highly confident due to the 16-month layoff and grappling risk.

Daniel picks Giga Chikadze, noting that this is a major step down in competition from Calvin Kattar. He believes Giga's power advantage is one-sided and that Caceres doesn't have the power to hurt him. He acknowledges concerns about Giga's layoff and surgeries, but thinks he cruises to a victory, possibly by knockout. He mentions that Caceres has a grappling edge but rarely uses takedowns.

James picks Alex Caceres as an underdog, citing Giga's long layoff, age (35), and the beating he took from Calvin Kattar. He believes Caceres can keep the striking close and has a massive grappling edge if the fight goes to the mat. He notes Giga gasses quickly after grappling exchanges, and Caceres could submit him or win via cardio advantage. He sees value at +210.

The host notes Giga Chikadze has been out for over a year and was exposed by Calvin Kattar's grappling. He believes Caceres is in his best form, with an unorthodox striking style and a dangerous Jiu-Jitsu game. The host expects Caceres to stifle Chikadze's early power, take the fight to the ground, and possibly find a submission. He calls the +210 odds 'crazy' and picks Caceres by decision.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Caceres' path to victory is via grappling, but Chikadze's striking is superior. He mentions Caceres' loss to Yusuff as a blueprint for how this fight could go. Paul is not confident enough to bet Chikadze at the price.

Angelo picks Caceres, believing he can weather Pineda's early storm and then take over as Pineda fades. He notes Pineda is dangerous but only for about three minutes. Angelo is concerned about recency bias from Caceres' knockout win over Julian Erosa, but still thinks Caceres' durability and experience will carry him.

Cody picks Caceres, noting his resurgence and improved skills across the board. He mentions Caceres has a knack for taking the back and fishing for rear-naked chokes. Cody contrasts Pineda's early-finish style with Caceres's ability to go the distance. He also notes Caceres recently lost a grappling match to Pat Sabatini, which could be a concern. Overall, he feels Caceres should win over 15 minutes but isn't overly confident.

Connor picks Pineda, citing that Caceres has historically struggled against intense, fast-starting power punchers. He notes that Pineda's aggression and power could overwhelm Caceres early, as seen in Caceres' losses to Francisco Rivera and Juan Wong. However, Connor is hesitant because Pineda is inconsistent and can be outmaneuvered by mobile strikers.

Daniel sees this as a dog-or-pass situation, noting that Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with 30 finishes in 30 wins. He believes the line has overcorrected after Caceres' win over Julian Erosa, and that Pineda's grappling and finishing ability make him a live underdog. However, he acknowledges Pineda's cardio issues and the risk of him getting finished himself.

Jacob picks Pineda, citing his power and finishing ability. He thinks Pineda's leg kicks will slow Caceres' movement and set up takedowns or knockout shots. Jacob notes Caceres' recent knockout was against a broken Julian Erosa and he hasn't shown real power since 2010. He believes Pineda finds a finish.

Caceres has cleaner technical striking and a sneaky submission game. Pineda is aggressive but leaves openings. Caceres will likely land a head kick or set up a submission in the second or third round. The fight not going to decision is a strong prop.

Paul picks Alex Caceres but is not confident at the -180 price. He notes Caceres has improved his wrestling and striking, and his grappling is his best asset. Paul points out Pineda is a front-runner who fades in later rounds, while Caceres can survive and be dangerous in the second and third. However, he acknowledges Pineda's physical strength and BJJ could pose problems if he gets takedowns early. Paul leans Caceres over 15 minutes but won't bet heavily.

The MMA Guru picks Alex Caceres, noting he is very hard to finish due to his elusiveness. He highlights Caceres' five-fight win streak with finishes, and a close fight with Sadiq Youssef. He believes Caceres will make it tricky for Pineda on the feet and that Pineda will slow down due to rough weight cuts. He thinks if it goes to decision, Caceres wins, though Pineda is a finisher.

Angelo is very confident in Julian Erosa, believing he can win the stand-up exchanges and stay alive on the ground. He notes Erosa has more power, volume, and good enough takedowns to keep Caceres guessing. He acknowledges Caceres' experience could sneak out a win but thinks Erosa is dangerous and well-rounded enough.

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa, noting that Erosa is typically an underdog but is favored here. He likes Erosa's volume, pressure, power, and submission game. He thinks Caceres lacks power and has been submitted many times. He expects Erosa to break Caceres and get a second-round submission.

Cody picks Erosa, noting his inconsistency but coming off a good performance against Hakeem Dawodu. He thinks Erosa has all the intangibles: volume, movement, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Caceres is a gatekeeper who beats lower-level guys but loses to legit fighters. He expects Erosa to outwork Caceres and win by decision.

The host bet the over 2.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks both guys are durable and neither has big knockout power, so it should go to decision. He leans Erosa to win but doesn't like the -170 moneyline. No clear winner pick.

Paul picks Erosa, agreeing with Cody. He notes his biggest concern with Erosa is his chin against power punchers, but Caceres is not a one-hitter quitter. He expects Erosa to clear 65.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, as he throws high volume and the fight likely goes to decision.

Angelo picks Sodiq Yusuff because he is too powerful and fast on the feet for Alex Caceres. He notes that Caceres averages less than one takedown per fight and likely won't use his wrestling, so he will lose the striking exchanges. However, he suggests Caceres might be worth a plus 3.5 bet (buying a round on scorecards) as he could have moments of success.

Big Brady picks Sodiq Yusuff to win by decision. He notes Yusuff has more power and will land the harder shots, while Caceres is a volume striker with a black belt in BJJ but rarely goes for takedowns. He thinks the smaller cage favors Yusuff's pressure. He expects a competitive fight but Yusuff's power will be the difference, possibly hurting or dropping Caceres, but ultimately winning a decision.

Cody leans Yusuff but is not confident. He notes Caceres' submission threat but believes Yusuff's power and pressure will be too much. He worries about Caceres' grappling but thinks Yusuff's takedown defense and ability to get up will suffice.

Daniel Levi picks Sodiq Yusuff, noting that he has been on Yusuff every fight except the Arnold Allen one. He believes Yusuff will walk Caceres down and use his Nigerian power and underrated ground game. Levi mentions that he has a bet on Yusuff at minus 220. He acknowledges Caceres's veteran tricks but thinks Yusuff's physicality and pressure will be too much.

Yusuff is a powerful striker returning from a loss to Arnold Allen. He has knockout power and good boxing, but cardio can be a concern if he grapples heavily. Caceres is on a five-fight win streak but against lesser competition, and was nearly finished by Seungwoo Choi. Yusuff is expected to land a big shot and knock out Caceres, likely in the first round.

Paul leans Yusuff but is not confident. He notes Caceres' submission threat but believes Yusuff's power and pressure will be too much. He worries about Caceres' grappling but thinks Yusuff's takedown defense and ability to get up will suffice.

Angelo thinks Choi is the more technical striker with better takedown entries, and should win the fight. However, he loves the value on Caceres as a +200 underdog and already grabbed a +3.5 bet on him at -115, meaning Caceres only needs to win one round. He thinks Caceres is tough enough to not get finished and can steal a round. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight.

Big Brady picks Choi as the younger, improving fighter who lands harder shots. He notes Caceres is durable but expects Choi to win a clear decision, though he warns that betting a -300 favorite to decision is risky due to poor judging. He sees Choi's takedown defense as a potential issue but believes he's worked on it.

Cody is confident in Seung Woo Choi, citing his size, reach, and striking acumen. He notes that Choi is a former Korean Muay Thai champion and has improved his takedown defense. Cody contrasts Choi's recent wins against solid competition with Alex Caceres's wins over lower-level opponents. He points out that Caceres has not scored a clean knockout since 2010 and lacks the wrestling to take Choi down. Cody believes Choi will out-strike Caceres and potentially finish him.

Lock picks Choi based on power and striking. He thinks Choi's power will be the difference and that Caceres will be outmatched on the feet. He expects Choi to win by decision, noting Caceres is experienced but may be on the decline.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Caceres is not used to facing opponents with reach and height advantages. He highlights Choi's cleaner, harder strikes and Caceres's lack of takedown threat. Paul mentions that Caceres's recent wins are over fighters who are no longer in the UFC or are fringe roster members. He believes Choi's size and striking will be too much for Caceres.

Big Brady picks Kevin Croom to win by submission, calling it an upset. He thinks Croom will be more aggressive, throw harder shots, and have higher volume. He notes Croom can take Caceres' back standing and take the fight to the mat, where Caceres has been submitted six times. He compares Croom favorably to Chase Hooper, who was a favorite against Caceres. He believes the line at +175 is off and that Caceres should not be a -210 favorite.

Daniel Levi picks Alex Caceres, citing his experience and level of competition. He notes Croom's win over Roosevelt Roberts was more about Roberts not being ready, and that Croom has a ugly, lunge-heavy style. Levi believes Caceres' striking edge and movement will allow him to pick Croom apart over three rounds, and that Croom's recent win is overrated.

Croom's pressure and pace will not allow Caceres to operate at his preferred kicking range. Croom has solid cardio, good volume, and a strong clinch game. Caceres struggles when pressured, and Croom's takedowns and forward movement should earn him a decision. The line is moving down, indicating value.

Daniel Levi picks Alex Caceres, calling him a gatekeeper who measures if a fighter belongs in the UFC. He believes Springer is not ready for this level, citing his loss to Chris Gruetzemacher and knockout loss to Julian Erosa. He expects Caceres to use his left hand and footwork to pick Springer apart, possibly getting a knockout.

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper by first-round submission, confident that Hooper's elite BJJ will overwhelm Caceres once the fight hits the ground. He notes Caceres has poor takedown defense and has been submitted multiple times. He warns that Hooper's striking and wrestling are weak, but believes he can get the takedown. He suggests looking at the submission prop if it's plus money.

Daniel is not sold on Hooper's striking defense but acknowledges his slick jiu-jitsu and top game. He notes that Caceres has been submitted multiple times and that Hooper's path to victory is on the ground. He expects Hooper to find a submission somewhere along the way, but admits it's sketchy and that he will look to fade Hooper soon.

Alex Caceres is a tough veteran with good submission defense and refined striking. Chase Hooper is young and still developing; his striking is awkward and his strength is lacking, which has prevented him from finishing submissions. Caceres should have the advantage on the feet and be able to defend Hooper's grappling. At plus money, Caceres offers value.