UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann

Angelo picks Anthony Smith but is hesitant. He thinks Smith is the better fighter with good hands and speed, and can implement a stick-and-move game plan to avoid Spann's power. However, he worries about Smith's durability after many beatings and the fact that Smith must fight perfectly for five rounds. He has a bet on over 2.5 rounds.

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to get an early finish, citing Spann's power and takedown ability. He notes Smith's poor takedown defense and striking defense, and that Smith often gets beaten up before coming back late. He thinks the fight will not go to decision and predicts a second-round finish for Spann.

Cody picks Anthony Smith, emphasizing Smith's superior cardio, durability, and experience in five-round fights. He notes that Smith's jab has improved since training at Factory X Muay Thai, and that Ryan Spann has low output and fades in later rounds. Cody is concerned about betting Smith as a favorite but believes he is the rightful favorite due to his ability to come back from early deficits.

Daniel Levi picks Anthony Smith. He notes Ryan Spann is talented but a head case, and has been knocked out three times on takedown attempts. He predicts Spann will dominate early but get knocked out on a takedown attempt for the fourth time. He says Smith is better as a dog but with five rounds, Smith has time to work. He calls Smith a comeback guy but picks him to win.

Preet picks Smith because he believes Smith is the better overall fighter with good durability and cardio. He thinks Spann's only path is an early KO, but Smith can avoid big shots and take over later. He expects a late finish and likes Smith inside the distance at +125 and round 3 at +950.

Paul agrees with Cody, stating that five rounds favor Smith and that Spann likely needs an early finish. He highlights Smith's toughness and durability, noting that Smith has only been knocked out twice in 10 years, both times against elite competition. Paul believes Spann will struggle as the fight goes longer.

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Smith by submission in the second round. He praises Smith's technical fundamentals, jab, and experience against top competition. He criticizes Spann's technical flaws and tendency to gas, predicting Smith will take him down and secure a rear-naked choke.

Angelo is hesitant but leans toward Ion Cuțelaba because of his power and finishing ability. He notes that Devin Clark is a grinder who doesn't finish fights, so if Cuțelaba wins it will be inside the distance, and if he loses it will be a decision. He likes the prop 'Cuțelaba wins inside the distance, decision no action' and the over on rounds.

Big Brady picks Ion Cuțelaba to win by first-round knockout, noting his 93% finish rate and Devin Clark's history of being finished in all his losses. He acknowledges Cuțelaba's cardio concerns but believes he will finish Clark early. He suggests betting Cuțelaba in the first round if betting.

Cody picks Cuțelaba, noting his explosive first round and improved cardio training at Extreme Couture. He believes Cuțelaba's wrestling and power will be too much for Clark, who has lost all five of his pro losses inside the distance. Cody warns that Cuțelaba is a 'greasy' bet and that Clark could take over if the fight goes past the first round.

Daniel Levi picks Ion Cuțelaba by first-round knockout. He notes Cuțelaba is a first-round-or-bust fighter and that Clark is a chinny spaz with poor fight IQ. He says if it goes past round one, Clark's better cardio could be a factor, but he expects Cuțelaba to get the knockout early. He advises live bettors to watch the line if it goes past the first round.

Preet leans Cuțelaba by KO because of his explosiveness and power early. He thinks Cuțelaba will find Clark's chin within the first 6-7 minutes. However, he acknowledges Clark has better cardio and could take over if he survives. He likes Cuțelaba by KO at +105.

Paul leans toward Cuțelaba but is cautious due to his history of gassing. He suggests this fight is best watched live, as Clark could take over late if he survives the initial onslaught. Paul compares it to the Menifield fight where Clark came back.

The MMA Guru picks Ion Cuțelaba by first-round TKO, citing his improved cardio and aggressive style. He believes Cuțelaba can replicate his performance against Dustin Jacoby, overwhelming Clark with pressure and elbows. He notes Clark's questionable chin and history of being finished.

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) confidently. He thinks she is a little better everywhere and has a huge experience edge (20 fights vs 7). He notes that Mandy Böhm is undefeated but has no specific elite skill to lean on, and that Lipski's losses came on her back, which he doesn't think will happen here. He placed a 1-unit bet on the moneyline at -121.

Big Brady picks underdog Mandy Böhm, believing her grappling will be the difference. He notes Ariane Lipski has poor takedown defense (42%) and a weak ground game, having been finished on the mat multiple times. He predicts Böhm will exploit this and win by second-round TKO or submission.

Cody picks Mandy Böhm, citing her superior striking, reach advantage, and underrated wrestling. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's poor takedown defense and low output, calling her 'fraudulent.' Cody notes that Böhm has a year layoff but believes she has the skills to win if she shows up in shape.

Daniel Levi leans with Ariane Lipski. He notes Lipski has lost twice in a row but those losses were to high-level fighters (Montana De La Rosa, Antonina Shevchenko). He thinks Mandy Böhm is green, with issues getting off the fence and off her back. He credits Böhm's toughness and clinch elbows but believes Lipski's experience will prevail. He says he's not confident enough to bet Lipski but picks her to get back on track.

Preet reluctantly picks Lipski because she is the much better striker and has trained at ATT. However, he is concerned about her takedown defense. He thinks Lipski will overwhelm Böhm on the feet and get a TKO in the second round. He likes Lipski by TKO at +500 and under 2.5 rounds at +185.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ariane da Silva was dominated on the ground by Antonina Shevchenko, who is not a strong grappler. He believes Böhm's clinch work and cage control will be key. Paul says he cannot bet anyone who gets 'throttled' by Shevchenko.

The MMA Guru picks Mandy Böhm over Ariane Lipski, noting Böhm's technical skill, athleticism, and undefeated record. He criticizes Lipski's inconsistency against fundamentally sound opponents. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Böhm.

Angelo is very confident in Arman Tsarukyan, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He praises Arman's wrestling, striking, and athleticism, noting he improves between fights. He thinks Christos Giagos is tough but will be outmatched everywhere. He expects a one-sided beating and suggests the under on rounds might be worth a bet for plus money.

Big Brady is very confident in Arman Tsarukyan, citing his relentless wrestling and high pace. He notes Giagos has poor takedown defense and cardio, and has been finished five times. He predicts Tsarukyan will get a late finish, specifically a third-round submission, as Giagos slows down.

Cody is very confident in Tsarukyan, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and experience against tough competition. He believes Giagos' only path is wrestling, but Tsarukyan is a superior wrestler and will not be taken down. Cody predicts a late finish as Giagos gasses.

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win. He says Giagos might make it competitive for five minutes before gassing, then Tsarukyan will take over with takedowns. He questions whether -800 is worth it for a decision win but is sure Tsarukyan wins. He mentions Tsarukyan's only scored over 100 fantasy points once (against Matt Frevola) but sees potential for a breakthrough.

Preet is very confident Tsarukyan will win and finish Giagos. He notes Tsarukyan's striking is improving and he owns Giagos everywhere. Giagos has poor cardio and will slow down, allowing Tsarukyan to get his first UFC finish. He likes Tsarukyan inside the distance at +170 and round 2-3 props.

Paul picks Tsarukyan as a parlay piece, noting that Giagos has suspect cardio and was outstruck by Sean Soriano before getting a submission. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling and durability will be too much. Paul mentions he has Tsarukyan in a three-leg parlay.

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan by submission in the second round, calling it a mismatch. He highlights Tsarukyan's well-rounded skills, great grappling, and cardio. He notes Giagos is not a prolific finisher and predicts Tsarukyan will easily get takedowns and finish with a rear-naked choke.

Angelo picks Tony Gravely but is hesitant. He thinks Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will win two rounds, but Nate Maness is well-rounded and will likely win a round. He placed a bet on Nate Maness +3.5 rounds (win a round) at even money, expecting Gravely to win 29-28. He notes Gravely's cardio issues and Maness's size.

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely, citing his relentless wrestling and top control. He notes Maness has good takedown defense initially but offers little on his back. Gravely has never been knocked out, and Maness has zero submissions off his back. He predicts a first-round TKO for Gravely.

Cody picks Gravely, citing his wrestling and improvements at American Top Team. He notes that Maness has suspect cardio and was nearly finished by Luke Sanders before coming back. Cody believes Gravely's chain wrestling will wear down Maness, though he admits the price is high.

Daniel Levi picks Tony Gravely. He describes Maness as average in all areas, while Gravely is a grappling specialist. He notes Gravely has been submitted before but that's due to his large sample size. He worries about judges not understanding grappling, citing the De Freitas fight where one judge scored against Gravely. He advises caution but picks Gravely.

Preet picks Gravely because he believes Gravely's wrestling is on a different level than Maness has faced. He thinks Maness will back up to the cage and get taken down, where Gravely can pass guard and finish. He likes Gravely inside the distance at +235 and under 2.5 rounds at +155.

Paul leans toward Gravely but is not confident due to the price. He notes that Maness has shown the ability to come back from bad first rounds. Paul suggests live betting Maness if he loses the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness over Tony Gravely, citing Maness's superior grappling and ability to out-grapple Gravely, who struggled with Geraldo de Freitas. He notes Maness is an underdog and calls it a good value pick. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley confidently. He likes Buckley's power and pressure against the taller, taekwondo-based Arroyo. He thinks Buckley will work the body and land big shots, and that Arroyo's bouncy style won't keep Buckley at range. He considers a bet on Buckley inside the distance.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley, citing Antônio Arroyo's terrible cardio and takedown defense. He notes Arroyo is good for only about three minutes before gassing, and Buckley can survive the first round and take over. He predicts a second-round knockout after Arroyo gasses.

Cody picks Buckley, noting his power and that Arroyo has poor cardio and was exhausted in his last fight. He believes Buckley's takedown defense will hold up and that Arroyo is not a threat on the feet. Cody acknowledges Buckley's questionable chin but thinks Arroyo lacks the power to exploit it.

Daniel Levi picks Antônio Arroyo for the upset. He argues that Buckley is a solid brawler but not worth laying -200 on. He says Arroyo's first two UFC fights were against a jiu-jitsu ace (Andre Muniz) and a credentialed wrestler (Daron Winn), so he shouldn't be judged harshly. He thinks Arroyo's gas tank won't be as big an issue here because the fight will be more striking-based, and Arroyo's length and kicks pose problems for the shorter Buckley. He calls it a closer fight than the line indicates.

Preet picks Buckley because he believes Buckley's pressure and power will overwhelm Arroyo, who has a poor gas tank and questionable chin. He expects Buckley to find a knockout later in the fight and likes Buckley by KO at +100 and round 3 at +850.

Paul leans toward Buckley but is wary of his durability issues. He notes that Arroyo hasn't shown much and that Buckley has power. Paul is not betting this fight due to concerns about Buckley's chin.

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley by first-round KO, despite skepticism about Buckley's overall skill. He notes Arroyo's low hands and poor cardio, predicting Buckley will land a big shot over the top. He mentions Buckley's explosivity and reach advantage.

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington because she will march forward, hold Pannie against the cage, and neutralize her boxing. He notes that Pennington's losses are to current/former champions and that she is a boring but effective grappler. He likes the -132 odds and thinks they will move. He is confident Pennington stifles Pannie's combinations.

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her superior level of competition and ability to grind against the cage. He notes Kianzad was outstruck by Alexis Davis and has shown vulnerability to wrestling. He predicts a decision win for Pennington, though he wishes the price were better and likely won't bet it.

Cody picks Kianzad as a slight underdog, citing her better striking and improved takedown defense. He notes that Pennington is a grinder but has looked mentally off in recent fights. Cody believes Kianzad can keep the fight at range and outwork Pennington.

Daniel Levi leans with Raquel Pennington. He calls Kianzad an overachiever and thinks Pennington's record is misleading because she has fought the best. He sees similar boxing-centric styles but gives the edge to Pennington, expecting a close decision. He notes he usually likes to dog close decisions but here he leans with Pennington.

Preet picks Pennington because she is good at everything and has better cardio and forward pressure. He thinks Kianzad is a better technical striker but Pennington will nullify her with clinch work and takedowns. He expects a decision and likes the fight goes to decision at +125.

Paul agrees with taking Kianzad at plus money, noting that Pennington's style could lead to a close decision. He thinks Kianzad's volume and range striking give her an edge, but acknowledges the smaller cage may favor Pennington's grinding.

The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad over Raquel Pennington, praising Kianzad's fundamentals, dirty boxing, and recent form. He questions Pennington's motivation and activity, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision for Kianzad.

Angelo picks Dakota Bush (Brandon Jenkins) because he thinks Zhu Rong is the better striker but needs to dictate the pace. He believes Dakota's willingness to come forward, mix in wrestling, and make it a dirty fight will put Zhu on the back foot, causing him to react rather than inflict. He notes Zhu's record is a bit hollow.

Big Brady picks underdog Rong Zhu, believing he is better than his poor UFC debut showed. He thinks Zhu has cardio and striking advantages, and can stuff Jenkins' takedowns. He notes Jenkins has poor takedown defense and may slow down. He predicts a decision win for Zhu but is not overly confident.

Cody does not make a firm pick, noting that Rong Zhu looked shell-shocked in his debut but has potential, while Brandon Jenkins is a short-notice replacement with mediocre technique. He suggests the under might be the best play if the price is right, as both fighters are aggressive finishers.

Daniel Levi picks Rong Zhu to win but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Zhu underperformed in his last fight due to the flight from China, but this time he trained at ATT in Florida, so the flight won't be an issue. He thinks Zhu should be around -175 to -200, not -350. He acknowledges Jenkins is an opportunistic finisher and hittable, but if he were to bet a side, he would bet Jenkins. As a pure pick, he goes with Zhu.

Preet leans Rong Zhu but thinks the line is too wide. He believes Zhu is a crisper striker and may have a grappling advantage, but Jenkins is durable and has better timing. He expects chaos and likes the under 2.5 rounds at -125.

Paul does not make a pick, noting that the fight was just booked and he hasn't studied it. He mentions he would be interested in the under if the total is set reasonably, as both fighters have finishing ability.

The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Brandon Jenkins, noting Zhu's youth (21) and experience (18-5). He criticizes Jenkins' lack of notable wins and believes Zhu will improve from his debut. He predicts a TKO win for Zhu.

Angelo picks Montel Jackson as he is well-rounded with power, striking, and wrestling. He notes JP Buys has a path via wrestling but Montel is too good everywhere. He does not like the moneyline at -700 but has a bet on over 1.5 rounds because he thinks Buys will survive early and make it past the first round and a half.

Big Brady is very confident in Montel Jackson, citing huge size and reach advantages. He notes JP Buys is moving up a weight class on short notice and has a history of gassing out. He predicts Jackson will finish Buys in the second round, either by knockout or submission, as Buys has never been to a decision.

Cody is very confident in Jackson, citing his size, power, and improved takedown defense. He notes that JP Buys is undersized, on short notice, and failed to wrestle in his UFC debut. Cody believes Jackson will keep the fight standing and land a knockout.

Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson to finish JP Buys. He believes Jackson has top-five potential and skills, despite past criticism of his mentality. He notes Buys is composed but lacks the goods, and Jackson's path to victory is finishing him. He advises against betting the moneyline at -650 and suggests looking at props like inside distance.

Preet picks Montel Jackson to win, expecting a finish. He notes Jackson has better striking and power, while Buys is fragile and tends to quit when pressured. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision at -200 and Jackson by KO at +105.

Paul has Jackson in his parlay, noting his physical advantages and Buys' lack of wrestling. He believes Jackson's power and full camp will be decisive. Paul mentions he bet the over 1.5 rounds as well.

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round KO, calling it the 'stupidest decision' for JP Buys to take this fight. He emphasizes Jackson's size, power, and grappling advantage, noting he shut down Brett Johns' grappling. He predicts Jackson will land a big shot and finish Buys early.

Angelo is confident in Erin Blanchfield because she is a nasty grappler and Sarah Alpar, though a good wrestler, gets sloppy after takedowns and gives up positions. He expects Blanchfield to capitalize on scrambles and likely get a submission. He notes that if Alpar were more controlled on top, it would be different, but she isn't.

Big Brady is very confident in Erin Blanchfield, despite her being a big favorite in her UFC debut. He praises her well-rounded skills, noting her striking and grappling are both excellent. He believes she is levels above Alpar, who looked terrible in her UFC debut. He predicts Blanchfield will win inside the distance, either by TKO or submission.

Cody picks Blanchfield, highlighting her superior grappling and striking. He notes that Alpar was dominated by Jessica-Rose Clark and has poor takedown defense. Cody believes Blanchfield is a well-rounded prospect who will control the fight.

Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield decisively. He notes Blanchfield is a solid prospect who has dominated with grappling and knocked opponents out with head kicks. He mentions her controversial loss to Tracy Cortez as valuable experience. He criticizes Alpar's skills, calling her tough but lacking athletic tools, and expects Blanchfield to win clearly.

Preet is confident Blanchfield will win but does not want to lay -400. He thinks Alpar's only strength is wrestling, but Blanchfield is a good grappler herself and has improved striking. He expects Blanchfield to stuff takedowns and hurt Alpar on the feet, but prefers the decision prop at +120 because he is not sure Blanchfield finishes at a high clip.

Paul has Blanchfield in his parlay, noting her youth and experience against high-level competition. He believes Alpar is tough but outmatched. Paul considered Blanchfield inside the distance but decided the price wasn't worth it.

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield by submission in the third round. He highlights her excellent jiu-jitsu, noting she won Eddie Bravo's invitational. He believes Sarah Alpar is not in professional shape and will eventually give up a rear-naked choke after being on bottom too long.

Angelo picks Carlston Harris despite Impa's superior striking because Harris is relentless with takedowns. He notes that Impa has good takedown defense but lacks knockout power to keep Harris off him. He worries that Impa's hesitation and Harris's non-stop wrestling will lead to Harris grinding out a win. He briefly considers switching to Impa but sticks with Harris.

Big Brady picks underdog Carlston Harris, impressed by his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Harris attempted over 20 takedowns in a 25-minute fight and has a good fight IQ. He believes Harris will pressure Kasanganay for 15 minutes, and predicts a submission win as Kasanganay is green on the mat. He is surprised Harris is the underdog.

Cody leans toward Harris as a slight underdog, citing his experience, submission game, and clear identity as a grappler. He notes that Kasanganay is still figuring out his game after being knocked out by Buckley. Cody believes Harris' pressure and grappling will be key.

Daniel Levi leans with Impa Kasanganay over Carlston Harris. He has scouted Impa for a long time, saw him fight in Atlanta, and praises his mental fortitude and physicality. He notes Harris has a nasty d'arce/anaconda choke but thinks Impa's mindset and athleticism give him the edge in a close fight. He calls it a coin flip but edges Impa.

Preet picks Impa Kasanganay because he believes Impa is the more technically sound striker with better range understanding and serviceable grappling to avoid trouble. He notes that Harris has power and a good top game but questions his takedown entries and thinks Impa's defensive grappling is improving. He expects Impa to win by decision and likes the decision prop at +175.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Harris' experience and that Kasanganay turned into a grappler in his last fight. He thinks Harris' submission threat is real and that the plus money is attractive.

The MMA Guru picks Impa Kasanganay over Carlston Harris, praising Kasanganay's technical soundness and composure. He believes Kasanganay won't be outgrappled and notes his youth and better gym. He predicts a close 29-28 unanimous decision, with Kasanganay winning the later rounds.

Angelo acknowledges that Alateng has more tools and is more technical, but he thinks Gustavo's brawling style and willingness to throw wild punches from unorthodox angles will frustrate Alateng. He notes that Alateng can struggle against brawlers and that Gustavo's toughness and pressure could lead to a win. He is hesitant because Alateng has a wrestling backup plan.

Big Brady picks Alateng Heili based on his superior wrestling, expecting takedowns and top control to be the difference. He acknowledges Lopez is dangerous on the mat with a 92% finish rate, so Heili must be careful. He sees the fight as very close and is not betting it. He predicts a decision win for Heili.

Cody leans toward Alateng Heili, citing his durability and wrestling. He notes that Lopez tends to tire and that Heili has shown he can absorb punishment and grind out decisions. Cody is not confident and calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

Daniel Levi picks Gustavo Lopez over Alateng Heili. He praises Heili's toughness but notes that Heili's flight from China could be a factor, though a commenter says Heili trained at Fight Ready this camp, which changes things. Levi still sees it as a close fight but thinks Lopez will land harder shots, stuff takedowns, and win a competitive decision.

Preet leans Alateng Heili because he believes the wrestling will cancel out and the fight will become a striking battle, where Alateng has straighter, crisper strikes. He thinks Lopez's striking is too wild and loopy, and that Alateng's wrestling background allows him to sprawl and brawl. He expects Alateng to win by decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Paul leans toward Lopez, noting his striking advantage and that Heili has been outstruck in every UFC fight. He worries about Lopez's cardio but thinks he can win the first two rounds. Paul calls it a close fight and suggests live betting.

The MMA Guru picks Alateng Heili over Gustavo Lopez, noting Heili's recent improvement (10-2 in last 12) and a good win over Dana Batgarel. He criticizes Lopez's performance against Adrian Yanez, saying he looked lost. He trusts Heili's chin and experience, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

Angelo picks Hannah Goldy due to her insane volume, forward pressure, and raw strength. He notes that Emily Whitmire has good kickboxing and wrestling but has been submitted in her last two losses. He believes Goldy's strength and clinch work will stifle Whitmire and that the fight goes to decision. He placed a bet at +105 but warns not to touch the current line.

Big Brady picks Hannah Goldy as an underdog, believing she can stuff Whitmire's takedowns and outpoint her on the feet. He notes Goldy's reach disadvantage is less severe than in past fights against longer opponents. He also mentions an armbar from guard is live, as Goldy recently got her purple belt. He predicts a decision win for Goldy.

Cody does not make a pick, calling it a 'cranberry sauce' fight that he is not interested in betting. He notes that both fighters have flaws and that Whitmire has been submitted multiple times, while Goldie has poor fight IQ. He decides to pass.

Daniel Levi picks Hannah Goldy over Emily Whitmire. He notes that Whitmire has mental issues and that Goldy is tougher, citing her fight against Belbita where she showed heart by getting on top in the third round. He believes the striking is more even here, and while Whitmire is a submission specialist, Goldy has faced better grapplers and holds a win over Jillian Robertson. He thinks if Whitmire doesn't get a first-round sub, Goldy can outpoint her and win a decision.

Preet favors Goldy because he believes Whitmire has not been active enough and that Goldy's distance striking will out-touch Whitmire over 15 minutes. He notes Goldy's recent training with Marina Shafir and Julian Robertson suggests she may try to grapple, but even in a striking fight he expects Goldy to win. He is not confident in a finish, preferring Goldy by decision at +205.

Paul tentatively picks Whitmire by decision, noting that Goldie has been figured out and backs straight up to the cage. He believes Whitmire's aggression and takedowns could be the key, but he is not confident and calls it a 'cranberry sauce' fight.

The MMA Guru picks Hannah Goldy over Emily Whitmire, citing Whitmire's struggles with fundamental MMA basics and Goldy's toughness and activity. He notes Goldy's strength in the clinch and decent technical striking compared to Whitmire. He also speculates Goldy may be on performance-enhancing drugs due to her physique. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Goldy.