vs
-630 +490
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021 · Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 34
Height 5' 10"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 30
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Montel Jackson
3.09 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
1.4 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.0 TD Avg
63.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - JP Buys
1.88 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.02 SApM
40.0% Str. Def.
1.55 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
25.0% TD Def.
2.3 Sub. Avg
Montel Jackson
Moneyline
DraftKings -630
KO/TKO
FanDuel +110
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
BetMGM +240
JP Buys
Moneyline
FanDuel +490
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1800
Submission
BetRivers +1600
Decision
FanDuel +850
Montel Jackson - Fight History
LOSS vs Raoni Barcelos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 1 35 of 66 53% 72 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Raoni Barcelos 0 21 of 38 55% 33 of 51 6 of 18 33% 2 0 7:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 1 14 of 24 58% 46 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Raoni Barcelos 0 3 of 4 75% 7 of 8 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:49
2 Montel Jackson 0 13 of 19 68% 15 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raoni Barcelos 0 8 of 17 47% 15 of 25 1 of 7 14% 1 0 2:14
3 Montel Jackson 0 8 of 23 34% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raoni Barcelos 0 10 of 17 58% 11 of 18 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 35 of 66 53% 26 of 57 8 of 8 1 of 1 26 of 53 3 of 5 6 of 8
Raoni Barcelos 21 of 38 55% 7 of 18 8 of 11 6 of 9 13 of 30 7 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 14 of 24 58% 10 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 13 1 of 3 6 of 8
Raoni Barcelos 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Montel Jackson 13 of 19 68% 9 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 8 of 17 47% 2 of 7 3 of 5 3 of 5 6 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Montel Jackson 8 of 23 34% 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos 10 of 17 58% 5 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 3 5 of 12 5 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-175); Barcelos (+140)

Round 1
The fighters in this next main card offering weigh roughly half of what the two heavyweights in the last bout amassed, and speed kills at 135 pounds. “Quik” Jackson (15-3, 9-3 UFC) saw his mighty six-fight win streak come to a halt last year when Deiveson Figueiredo narrowly outpointed him, so he is in search of getting back in the green. Ageless wonder Barcelos (21-5, 10-4 UFC), who turns 39 next Friday, has won four in a row and could be poised to make a run. Referee Jason Herzog will make sure everything is copacetic.
The longer Jackson takes a few seconds to measure his opponent, and with his long reach, he clips Jackson with a head kick that shakes the elder statesman to his core. Barcelos hits the ground, and Jackson proceeds to hammer him with concussive blows. Barcelos takes them mostly on the chin, surviving and moving enough to stave off Herzog, all while huge strikes collide with his head time and again. Barcelos gets through the initial assault and turns to his knees in pursuit of a takedown, pushing the longer fighter against the wall. When there is no takedown to come from it, he spins out and ducks knowing that Jackson will—and does—swing at him. Jackson’s jab is money, and his follow-up left is destroying Barcelos’ face. Barcelos right eye is swelling and badly damaged halfway through the round.
Ignoring the pain, Barcelos closes in and trips Jackson to the floor. Barcelos climbs on top, and when Jackson tries to set something up off his back, Barcelos powerslams him. Jackson scrambles upon the impact, and Barcelos grabs his shorts in hopes of hanging on. Herzog admonishes him for the foul, and Jackson squirms his way out. Barcelos looks to jab his way in, but the range is a seemingly insurmountable task for the older man when he tries to box. Barcelos has to sell out and rush forward to swing, but when he gets close enough, he grabs hold of “Quik” and hurls him to the mat like a junior high wrestling coach against a new recruit. Jackson turns to his side, and Barcelos starts fishing for rear-naked choke. On the third attempt, it is under the chin, but Jackson is not about to give up. Time is up before the submission is complete.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Herzog informs Barcelos between rounds to not grab the shorts or commit any position-changing fouls lest he deduct a point. They engage again, with Barcelos slowly, methodically working his way in. He looks to counter even with Jackson the far longer man, and he does not sell out or get reckless to advance. When he finds his openings, he draws ever closer, until he is near enough to crash the pocket and go for a level change. Jackson keeps his balance with his back to the cage, and he works his way out and resets.
Barcelos stays pressing the pace, walking through the fire that Jackson swings at him with every single effective blow. Barcelos takes the strikes on the chin and looks to engage his grappling. He does not force the action or put himself off-balance, instead measuring his blows efficiently to set up and further open up offense. Barcelos beats on his opponent until Jackson turns around to give up his back, and with seconds to spare, Barcelos once again goes for the rear-naked choke. The Brazilian wraps his left arm under the chin, and Jackson keeps his hand ready to tap but hears his corner saying he can make it to the bell and does just that.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The grizzled veteran—14 UFC fights to Jackson’s 12—Barcelos goes right after Jackson in the final frame, looking to take the offense out of his opponent and prevent him from landing hard on him. As he controls Jackson against the cage for a prolonged time, he cannot secure a level change. Jackson works his way out, and Barcelos chases him and gives him a right hand on the jaw to think about. Jackson appears surprise, and he fires big punches at Barcelos that Barcelos ducks. Barcelos gets his hands on Jackson, and he sweeps the leg and puts Jackson down.
Jackson works back to his feet and lifts Barcelos off the ground with a knee in the clinch. Barcelos throws one back, and they trade hands up close until Jackson gets the space he was seeking. Jackson doubles up on a jab to the temple, whipping a rear-leg high kick at him that Barcelos blocks in time. Barcelos walks through the offense to wrap his hands around Jackson, where he takes him for a ride with a trip and throw. Jackson bounces back up, and Barcelos looks for a mat return with a single. Barcelos boots Jackson right in the face, bloodying his nose with it, and he lets Jackson charge him to turn that against him. Like the previous two rounds, Barcelos takes the back position and is fishing for a choke. Also like those rounds, there is no truly deep submission, so time expires and it’s all up to the judges. It could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Montel Jackson via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo leans on Montel Jackson, noting his power and wrestling background. He points out that Jackson's three UFC losses came when he couldn't defend takedowns, but believes Raoni Barcelos's age may prevent him from getting takedowns. He worries that Jackson might be gunshy due to wrestling concerns, which could allow Barcelos to win with empty takedowns. He says Montel should win but the fight could get weird.

"I'm going to lean Montel here. But, I am worried that he's going to be gunshy because he's worried about the wrestling."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson but with hesitation. He acknowledges Jackson's talent and power but notes his inconsistency and lack of effort in some fights. He believes if Jackson shows up, he can knock out Barcelos, who is older and has a questionable chin. However, he warns that Jackson could lose if he doesn't try.

Jackson wins by first round knockout
"Give me Jackson here. Jackson to win this fight by first round knockout."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Raoni Barcelos

The host notes Jackson has many physical advantages but is mentally inconsistent, often passive and inactive. Barcelos is mentally strong, high output, and aggressive. He believes Barcelos has a good chance if Jackson is not at his best. He prefers Barcelos +3.5 because Jackson lacks killer instinct and often goes to decision, and Barcelos should win at least one round.

Barcelos +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision
"Barcelos very live underdog here, very risky to bet him cuz he's second best everywhere, but if Jackson's not at his best, I think there's a really good chance that Barcelos will outwork him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

James picks Barcelos as an underdog, believing his veteran skills and pocket boxing will overcome Jackson's power. He thinks Barcelos can follow the blueprint from Figueiredo's win over Jackson, using takedowns and pressure to win a decision or late submission.

"I'm going to pick him as the underdog here. I'm going to say Barcelos gets a probably a decision win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Raoni Barcelos

Barcelos is on a four-fight winning streak with improved durability and a well-rounded game. He can use lateral movement, kicks, and wrestling to neutralize Jackson's power. Jackson is gun-shy and struggles against wrestlers. Barcelos has more paths to victory and should win a decision, though he risks getting knocked out if he gets caught clean.

"I think Barcelos has more paths to victory here and I think he can successfully stay away from the knockout power of Jackson."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 23 of 43 53% 23 of 44 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:18
Montel Jackson 0 30 of 70 42% 30 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 14 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:08
Montel Jackson 0 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:10
Montel Jackson 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Deiveson Figueiredo 0 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Montel Jackson 0 8 of 18 44% 8 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Deiveson Figueiredo 23 of 43 53% 4 of 19 9 of 11 10 of 13 22 of 42 0 of 0 1 of 1
Montel Jackson 30 of 70 42% 14 of 51 7 of 8 9 of 11 28 of 67 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Deiveson Figueiredo 8 of 13 61% 0 of 4 4 of 4 4 of 5 7 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Montel Jackson 8 of 20 40% 4 of 14 1 of 2 3 of 4 7 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Deiveson Figueiredo 7 of 16 43% 2 of 9 3 of 3 2 of 4 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Montel Jackson 14 of 32 43% 7 of 24 4 of 4 3 of 4 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Deiveson Figueiredo 8 of 14 57% 2 of 6 2 of 4 4 of 4 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Montel Jackson 8 of 18 44% 3 of 13 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-300); Figueiredo (+250)

Round 1
On his first career losing streak, Figueiredo (24-5-1, 13-5-1 UFC) at the tender age of 37 would like nothing more than to turn things around at the expense of “Quik” Jackson (15-2, 9-2 UFC). Both bantamweights have plenty of firepower, so referee Jason Herzog will need to don his proverbial hard hat. Fists are bumped before they are traded.
Figueiredo lets loose first with a low kick, and he ducks a huge right hand to clinch up. They split before anything of merit lands, and Figueiredo resets and reaches with another low kick. Jackson plants a one-two on the Brazilian’s jaw, who responds with a heavier-than-expected body kick. Figueiredo kicks low and ducks the anticipated counter, and he looks for a body lock to muscle the longer man to the floor. “Daico” manages to leverage Jackson to the mat, where he starts hunting for a way to pass the guard. Jackson uses butterfly hooks to keep the former flyweight king at bay, and he briefly gives up his back when scrambling. Figueiredo takes it, and he has to let it go when Jackson explodes to his feet. Figueiredo drives a knee to the chest on the way up, and he retreats.
Jackson smacks him with an inside calf kick, and he doubles up on jabs to the body. Figueiredo turns his hips to a hard leg kick, and he swipes out with a right hand when Jackson advances towards him. The calf kicks land from both sides, and Figueiredo sprints in and ducks down to clip Jackson with a big right hand. Jackson fires back on the way back, catching the Brazilian as well but off-balance so his weight is not behind it. The two hand-fight, and Figueiredo boots his foe in the sternum. Jackson catches the leg, but when he cannot do anything with it, he releases it and bops Figueiredo in the nose with a jab. Figueiredo runs towards Jackson and cracks him with a right hand that makes Jackson’s knees buckle, and one final body kick from the former champ ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo

Round 2
Figueiredo jogs out of his corner looking to throw hands, and he uses the punches to set up a takedown. Less than 20 seconds into the round, and Figueiredo has secured full mount. Jackson turns to escape, and Figueiredo uses the opportunity to snatch up an arm-triangle choke. “Deus da Guerra” jumps to the side to complete the sub, and rather than wait around for it to be over, Jackson somehow busts out of it and stops the choke from materializing. Figueiredo smoothly slides around to take the back, and he fishes for something but does not have any openings. Jackson works to his feet before long, and he stabs out a jab that bloodies up the bridge of the former flyweight champ’s nose. Figueiredo motions low to fake a takedown, and he kicks where he reached towards instead.
The feints of the Brazilian draw out reactions, allowing him to rip kicks to the body when not pump-faking. Jackson swats out with a single right hook, and Figueiredo does the same. Volume is low and both men are tentative to engage, and even more cautious committing to much. Figueiredo hops away from a couple half-hearted jabs and pitches a kick to the midsection. Jackson sticks and moves, and he just evades a looping right hand intent on lopping his head off at the stem. Jackson peppers the reddened nose of his foe with a few more jabs, and he takes a low kick on the way out. Jackson sits down on two punches and a knee, and Figueiredo is fired up and lets go with his own punches. A right hand from the Brazilian appears to wobble Jackson with seconds to spare, and the two duke it out until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo

Round 3
Bounding out of his corner ready for five more minutes of bantamweight melee, Figueiredo strikes first with a jumping stomp kick to the knee. The Brazilian goes high with his lead leg, and he sways to take the brunt out of a jab. Figueiredo backs his man up with surging punches, and he takes a flush jab on the forehead. Figueiredo drills the front leg with a kick, and he races forward and slips. Jackson does not capitalize on this, instead allowing Figueiredo to stand up so he can push out one single jab. Jackson chambers and fires off a hard low kick, and Figueiredo grins at him and briefly switches stances before recovering and loosing a body kick that just misses.
Jackson tags Figueiredo walking in with a left and then a right, and he times the bounces of the Brazilian to moderate effect. Jackson scores a body kick, and Figueiredo grimaces at him. Jackson kicks the same spot once more, resulting in a clinch and some knees from the Brazilian. Jackson uses a body lock to elevate the former champ and dump him on his back, and Figueiredo bounces off the mat as if he had springs in his shorts without taking a strike. Jackson backs off his opponent, but all he can muster is a low kick that is answered harder by the ex-champ. The crowd is completely out of the fight, disappointed by four straight losses for the locals, even though one might win this lackluster match. Figueiredo waves Jackson on with 10 seconds to go, and he boots Jackson in the belly with a kick. Pointing down again, he tricks Jackson to engage and shoots for a single. The bummer of a bout ends with Figueiredo looking for a hug.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Figueiredo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)

The Official Result
Deiveson Figueiredo def. Montel Jackson via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo picks Montel Jackson, believing he will rise to the occasion. He notes Figueiredo is a shell of his former self, older and slower. He acknowledges Figueiredo's past success but thinks Montel's wrestling and power will be enough. He also mentions Figueiredo plus 3.5 as a possible bet.

Figueiredo +3.5 spread might be worth exploring
"I'm going to pick Montel Jackson here. I think Montel Jackson will rise to the occasion and will win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round knockout. He notes Jackson's significant size advantage (5-inch height, 7.5-inch reach) and power, having many knockdowns in the UFC. He believes Figueiredo has taken too much damage and is now 37, and that Jackson will keep the fight standing and land a knockout. He expects Jackson to stuff takedowns easily.

knockout
"I'm going to say Montel Jackson wins this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

Cody also picks Figueiredo, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He highlights Jackson's low output and susceptibility to takedowns, while Figueiredo's experience and power make him live. He suggests waiting for a better price or live betting.

"It's a dog or pass fight, Paul. For me, that's what it is. And so, I took Davidson Figero."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

James picks Figueiredo as a value underdog, citing Figgy's superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling as a path to victory via submission or control. He notes Montel Jackson's wrestling vulnerability exposed in past fights and Figueiredo's ability to get takedowns. However, he admits low confidence due to Figueiredo's recent losses and age, and says he would not bet on Montel at -275.

"I'll pick Figero in this one. Why not? Figuredo has the he's the money line side. He's the value side. I think he can get submission here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Lucrative James picks Montel Jackson but is not confident. He notes Figueiredo's age and declining durability, but also his takedown and jiu-jitsu advantage. He believes Jackson's wrestling is a weakness, but Figueiredo may not be able to exploit it. He sees Jackson winning by decision, but wouldn't bet at -305.

"I'm picking Montel Jackson to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Manpreet leans towards Jackson but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline at -300. He believes Jackson's reach and height advantages will be key, and that Jackson's power will find a knockout as Figueiredo slows down. However, he acknowledges Figueiredo's grappling threat and notes that if Figueiredo can get control time, he could win. He considers the KO prop for Jackson and the submission prop for Figueiredo at +800 as alternatives.

Figueiredo by submission +800; Jackson by KO
"I think Jackson ends up nullifying most of that grappling of Figueiredo, and then finds that knockout in the second or third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Deiveson Figueiredo

Paul picks Figueiredo as a dog, arguing that Montel Jackson's -300 price is unjustified. He points out Jackson's low volume striking and lack of elite wins, while Figueiredo has faced top competition and has the wrestling and power to win a close fight in Brazil. He sees value in the underdog.

"I am actually taking Figgy. Simply because the number on Montel Jackson just really makes no sense."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson over Deiveson Figueiredo, believing Figueiredo is past his prime and looked poor against Sandhagen. He notes Jackson has a reach advantage and is durable. He predicts a decision win for Jackson.

"I'm going to go Montel Jackson here. I'm going to take him by decision. 30-27."
WIN vs Daniel Marcos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 0 30 of 66 45% 67 of 106 2 of 8 25% 1 0 3:37
Daniel Marcos 0 17 of 32 53% 24 of 43 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 0 4 of 12 33% 22 of 31 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:07
Daniel Marcos 0 4 of 7 57% 7 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
2 Montel Jackson 0 15 of 28 53% 22 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Daniel Marcos 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:55
3 Montel Jackson 0 11 of 26 42% 23 of 38 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:04
Daniel Marcos 0 6 of 13 46% 10 of 20 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 30 of 66 45% 25 of 58 1 of 3 4 of 5 27 of 62 3 of 4 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 17 of 32 53% 5 of 18 5 of 7 7 of 7 13 of 27 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 4 of 12 33% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Montel Jackson 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 3 15 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 7 of 12 58% 1 of 5 2 of 3 4 of 4 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Montel Jackson 11 of 26 42% 11 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 6 of 13 46% 2 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-205), Marcos (+170)

Round 1
Bantamweights are up again in Des Moines, this time red-hot rising contenders Marcos and Jackson, with Gary Copeland on referee duty. Jackson is southpaw, Marcos orthodox, and they exchange a couple of glancing punches from outside before Marcos closes the distance and clinches with the much taller American. Jackson grounds Marcos with a beautiful foot sweep, and takes top position in Marcos’ guard. He lets “Soncora” up quickly, and they go back to kickboxing, where Marcos continues to try and solve the puzzle of Jackson’s huge height and reach advantages. They clinch again, this time with Marcos’ back against the fence, and Jackson drives his knee into Marcos’ thigh and midsection before they break off and move away from the fence. Marcos rushes forward and pushes Jackson to the fence, where he takes a turn firing short knees as they vie for head position and wrist control. Marcos changes levels, peels Jackson off the fence and takes him down. Marcos is in Jackson’s guard, but only briefly, as Jackson hips out, gives his back up and stands. He turns to face Marcos, completing the escape, just before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Marcos comes forward, working to navigate his foe’s reach by springing in with big overhand rights. Marcos jumps in again, but this time he changes levels and completes a takedown in the center of the Octagon. Marcos is in Jackson’s guard, but Jackson will not concede the position, keeping his hips active and looking to get his feet on Marcos’ hips and kick him off. Marcos lets his man up and they go back to work on the feet. Jackson is connecting with a fast, long jab that comes up from near his beltline, while Marcos is keeping his chin tucked and looking for his moment to land a big punch. Marcos steps into the pocket and shoves Jackson to the fence, where they exchange a couple of blows in close before breaking the clinch. Marcos wades right back into range and drives the taller man to the cage again. He locks his hands and, after a moment’s adjustment, hoists Jackson and puts him on the ground. Jackson springs right back to his feet and they move back to the fence. Jackson reverses position and is pushing Marcos into the chain-link at the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
The final round begins with Marcos landing a nice body kick to the open side. Jackson comes back with a pair of punches, one of which might have grazed Marcos’ right eye in an awkward way, as he comes away guarding that side of his face closely. Jackson moves in and tries for a takedown near the fence, but Marcos sprawls well in close quarters. Marcos goes for a takedown of his own and gets Jackson off his feet, then moves to the back as Jackson gets back up. Marcos works from standing back control for a few moments before Jackson spins out of his grasp and off of the fence. Marcos immediately closes the distance again, bending at the waist and trying to pull Jackson’s hips away from the cage. Jackson turns his back and Marcos takes a rear waistlock, but he can only get off a few knees to the thigh before Jackson escapes again. Jackson comes forward, stalking a suddenly tired-looking Marcos, and gets an easy takedown. As Marcos stands, Jackson snares him in a D’Arce choke, dragging him back to the mat as he does so. Marcos remains calm and defends against the choke, but the final horn sounds seconds later, possibly without “Soncora” having landed a single strike this round. Barring some extreme judging malfeasance, one of the UFC’s two dozen or so undefeated fighters is about to go down.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)

The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Daniel Marcos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Angelo goes against the public and picks Daniel Marcos as an underdog. He trusts Marcos's cardio and takedown defense, and believes he can win a close decision similar to his last fight. He suggests a +3.5 spread bet if the odds remain wide.

Interested in +3.5 spread if odds widen
"I'm picking Daniel Marcos."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson, citing his significant height and reach advantage, power, and wrestling upside. He notes that Jackson's losses came against wrestlers who took him down, but Marcos is not a wrestler; Jackson may get takedowns instead. Brady questions Marcos's ceiling, pointing out close decisions against Adrien Yanez and Davey Grant, where Grant outlanded Marcos. He expects Jackson to win a decision, mixing in wrestling and landing big shots.

Decision win
"I'm going to go Jackson here. I think he wins by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Connor picks Marcos, believing his defensive awareness and ability to slip past length will neutralize Jackson's reach. He notes that Jackson's striking is aimless and he has struggled against pressure fighters like Brent Johns and Ricky Simone. Connor thinks Marcos can get inside and land meaningful shots, and that Jackson's lack of process will be exposed. However, he admits Marcos tends to walk a fine line and doesn't control fights completely.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I have faith in Daniel Marcos in this one... I think Jackson is quite easy to pressure and push around the cage at range."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Jackson will shut down Marcos's calf kicking and grappling game. He will land his big power and muscle Marcos, getting a KO finish within 10 minutes.

KO within 10 minutes
"Jackson shuts down the calf kicking and grappling game of Marcos, landing his big power, musling Marcos and eventually getting that KO finish within 10 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson to win by TKO in the first or second round. He praises Jackson's power, reach, and wrestling defense, noting that he has never been held down. He believes Daniel Marcos lacks the grappling threat and power to trouble Jackson, and that Jackson will find a finish. He thinks Jackson should be a -250 favorite, so -198 is good value.

TKO in round 1 or 2, good value at -198
"I've got Montel Jackson getting this one done and I think he wins it by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Zane picks Jackson, citing his size, reach, and fight-changing power as key advantages. He notes that Marcos has never faced a fighter with Jackson's physical attributes and may struggle to get inside. Zane acknowledges that Marcos is skilled and defensively aware, but worries that Jackson's power will be the difference if Marcos can't neutralize the reach. He admits it's a close fight and not confident.

Odds: Jackson -190, Marcos +165. Zane thinks the odds should be closer.
"I think I'm gonna pick Jackson... I think he has the fight changing power that Marcos does not have."
KO (punch) R1 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Montel Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-162), Blackshear (+136)

Round 1
The prelims continue as bantamweights meet in the Octagon, with Jackson (13-2, 7-2 UFC) putting together a quietly successful run in the UFC as he enters into his 10th fight. The same cannot be said for Blackshear (14-6-1, 2-2-1 UFC), who hopes to break out of his .500 record with a victory. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Nick Berens, who checks them in as they bump fists. Blackshear lands a leg kick earl y, and Jackson responds with a right hand that loops around the guard. They hand-fight, and Jackson sticks out a front kick.
As Blackshear steps in to attack, Jackson releases a lightning-quick one-two that knocks Blackshear clean off his feet. As Blackshear’s head ricochets off the mat, it is clear he is out cold, and Jackson knows that his work here is done but understands the rules and drops down a few unnecessary punches until Berens leaps in.
While the audience explodes in favor of the ultra-fast knockout, Jackson signals to bring it down a few notches and drops a knee out of concern for his wrecked opponent. Blackshear comes to, although he needs to lean on his coach to remain upright, and Jackson is relieved and goes to embrace his fallen foe. The confident Jackson, who finds himself on a mighty win streak after a vicious knockout, simply tells upcoming adversaries during his post-fight interview that they need to “sign the contract.”

The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Da’Mon Blackshear R1 0:18 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo picks Montel Jackson, citing his superior wrestling background (Olympic Training Facility), power, and speed. He notes that while Da'Mon Blackshear is a good underdog with early wrestling initiation, Montel's offensive wrestling and power should be the difference. Angelo plans to wait for prop bets before placing a wager.

Waiting for prop bets to drop before placing a bet.
"Montel is the pick before I place a bet on this fight I'm going to wait for all the props to drop"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Cody picks Jackson, citing his striking advantage and improved grappling. He notes Blackshear's cardio issues and short notice, and believes Jackson will win by decision or late TKO. He expects Jackson to stuff takedowns and outwork Blackshear.

"Montel Jackson is going to figure out a way how to get the job done."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Daniel Vreeland leans with Da'Mon Blackshear as a plus 130 underdog. He notes that Montel Jackson is talented but inconsistent, often having long periods of inactivity. He thinks Blackshear's pressure and cardio could be factors, though he acknowledges Jackson's high ceiling. He calls it a tough fight to call but prefers the dog.

"I'll lean with the plus 130 dog just because I I could see this you know potentially being line minus 110 a piece so I'll go with the plus 130 dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Montel Jackson

Montel Jackson has shown improvements in surviving early rounds and taking over in the second and third. Blackshear tends to slow down later in fights. Jackson will keep the fight upright and use his power to finish Blackshear in the second or third round.

"I think we'll see good improvements here from Jackson in terms of being able to survive early then really start to take over in these second and third rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Paul picks Jackson but is less confident, citing Blackshear's wrestling threat. He notes Jackson's inactivity but believes his striking and cardio advantage will prevail. He expects a competitive fight and may wait for weigh-ins.

"Jackson will be the pick for the purpose of this show."
WIN vs Rani Yahya
KO (punches) R1 3:42 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 0 7 of 21 33% 7 of 22 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
Rani Yahya 1 9 of 21 42% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 0 7 of 21 33% 7 of 22 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
Rani Yahya 1 9 of 21 42% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 7 of 21 33% 1 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 9 7 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rani Yahya 9 of 21 42% 7 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 7 of 21 33% 1 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 9 7 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rani Yahya 9 of 21 42% 7 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Montel Jackson vs. Rani Yahya
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-560), Yahya (+430)

Round 1
The quintessential “striker vs. grappler” contest rears its head between these two bantamweights, one that also has a storyline of a young, hungry up-and-comer against an aging, storied vet. Owner of 21 submissions without a single knockout to his credit, Yahya (28-10-1, 1 NC; 13-4-1, 1 NC UFC) will attempt to run his win streak to three in this matchup. He will face “Quik” Jackson (12-2, 6-2 UFC), who will be much larger, longer and younger. The third man in the Octagon for this match will be referee Keith Peterson, who clocks the fighters in ahead of their sporting and nonsense-free glove touch. Yahya strikes first with a pair of punches and a low kick, and he spins around before Jackson can reach him. The Brazilian lands with another low kick, and he stays out of range for the lanky Jackson to get to him. Yahya tosses forth one more leg kick for good measure, and he scoots forward to stomp at it from another angle. The strategy is clear for Yahya, who is continuously targeting the lead wheel. Jackson throws a few punches that bounce off the guard and knock his man into the wall, not from damage but rather the force of the strikes. Jackson catches him with a one-two, and Yahya dives forward into a single. Jackson hops back against the fence and elbows Yahya in the side of the dome before getting lifted off the ground. Yahya ends up falling to his back to make sure the fighters hit the ground, and he closes his guard momentarily before fishing for a sweep. Yahya isolates Jackson’s right arm beneath his own armpit and throws a leg up for a potential armlock, and Jackson sits up to get most of the leverage out of the position. Yahya gets popped in the chops to break up the submission, and he pulls on the glove to keep Jackson down but is warned for it. Jackson jumps back up to his feet and rips the body with a kick. Yahya misses with a stomp kick but does reach a right hand over the top, and Jackson does not even register its landing. Jackson hand-fights and throws a high kick that wraps over the guard.
Yahya darts in lunging with his arms outstretched, and “Quik” perfectly counters with a clean left hand over the top that smashes into the veteran’s chin. Yahya falls to his back, in immediate danger, and Jackson senses this and deftly moves over to finish the job with some long, straight punches as he lords over the doomed grappler. As Jackson pounds on his fallen foe, Yahya’s lights go out briefly, and Peterson waves the fight off.
This is a big win for Jackson, who becomes the first fighter to stop Yahya since the Brazilian faced Joseph Benavidez at WEC 45 in 2009 – over seven years before Jackson turned pro.

The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Rani Yahya R1 3:42 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo picks Montel Jackson easily, stating he should defend every takedown from Yahya and light him up on the feet. He notes Yahya's low takedown accuracy (24%) and that he relies on opponents shooting takedowns to get to the ground. He recommends parlaying Jackson.

Parlay piece.
"This is a very easy Montel Jackson pick... Montel Jackson easy win you should be able to Parlay him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Jackson is the biggest favorite on the card and has a huge reach and size advantage over the 38-year-old Yahya. Jackson has a ton of knockdowns and Yahya has been dropped in recent fights. Brady believes Jackson will stuff takedowns, keep the fight on the feet, and knock Yahya down repeatedly until the fight is stopped. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Yahya.

first round knockout
"first round knockout here for Montel Jackson I think he gets uh Yaya out of there early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Cody picks Montel Jackson, citing his massive reach and strength advantages. He notes Yahya is old (38), has poor wrestling and striking, and relies on flopping to his back to avoid damage. Cody believes Jackson can keep the fight standing and use his reach to pick Yahya apart, possibly getting a knockout. He mentions a prop on PrizePicks for under 1.5 takedowns for Jackson, as he expects Jackson to avoid grappling.

Under 1.5 takedowns for Montel Jackson (PrizePicks)
"Montel Jackson the only way he gets himself in trouble in this fight against Rani Yaya who is very long in the tooth and will flop to his back and do all crazy types of things to try to get …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Connor picks Montel Jackson, believing he is improving despite himself and that his natural athleticism and size will be too much for Yahya. He notes that Jackson's ability to easily shut down takedowns, as seen against Ricky Simon, will be key. However, he acknowledges that Jackson tends to make fights more competitive than needed and that Yahya is a dedicated grappler who can take a mile if given an inch.

Odds comment: Jackson opened at -562, currently -595; Yahya opened at +435, currently +455. Connor says that's a little too wide on Jackson, noting that Brett Johns beat Jackson with a dedicated game and that Jackson has lapses.
"I am going to pick Jackson to win because I think he's one of those fighters who is just improving despite himself."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Montel Jackson has significant speed and power advantages, and his kicks can keep Yahya at distance. Yahya is a jiu-jitsu specialist who struggles to get takedowns and has poor cardio. Jackson should be able to pick him apart and eventually land a knockout. However, Jackson has lacked killer instinct and has been taken down by grapplers before. If Yahya gets a hold of him, he could grind out a win. Jackson by knockout in the second round is the pick, but with low confidence.

Jackson by KO in round 2
"I'm gonna go Jackson by knockout but again this is a sketchy one... official prediction Montel Jackson by knockout let's say second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Paul also picks Jackson, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He adds that Yahya's Jiu-Jitsu is good but his wrestling is bad, and Jackson has good takedown defense. Paul notes that judges now favor damage, so even if Yahya gets takedowns, Jackson's striking should win rounds. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by knockout.

"I think Jackson's gonna be able to brick wall him keep the fight standing utilize that big reach Advantage utilize a power Advantage maybe even knock him out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

The MMA Guru calls this the lock of the card, stating there is no chance Rani Yahya wins. He highlights Montel Jackson's wicked striking and improving skills, and his ability to stuff takedowns with good wrist control. He notes Yahya's age, injuries, and inability to get the fight to the ground. He predicts a KO in the first or second round.

KO in the first or second round
"this is the lock of the card there isn't a single chance on Earth that Ronnie Yaya's gonna win this fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Zane also picks Montel Jackson, agreeing that he is probably too innately good and big for Yahya. He notes that Yahya is self-destructive and puts a ton of energy into grappling, and that Jackson's physicality should allow him to rebuff Yahya's wrestling. Zane mentions that Jackson's ability to just grab a wrist and control an opponent's arm is a huge advantage.

"I am also inclined to pick him. I mean, I just think he's probably too innately good and big for Ronnie."
WIN vs Julio Arce
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 0 26 of 126 20% 44 of 156 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Julio Arce 1 48 of 106 45% 64 of 127 0 of 3 0% 0 0 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 0 4 of 22 18% 9 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Julio Arce 0 5 of 17 29% 15 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:09
2 Montel Jackson 0 15 of 58 25% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 0 19 of 46 41% 24 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:12
3 Montel Jackson 0 7 of 46 15% 10 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 1 24 of 43 55% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 26 of 126 20% 13 of 102 8 of 17 5 of 7 25 of 124 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julio Arce 48 of 106 45% 39 of 95 5 of 7 4 of 4 33 of 82 4 of 5 11 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 4 of 22 18% 2 of 16 1 of 3 1 of 3 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julio Arce 5 of 17 29% 3 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Montel Jackson 15 of 58 25% 7 of 47 5 of 8 3 of 3 15 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julio Arce 19 of 46 41% 13 of 39 3 of 4 3 of 3 18 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Montel Jackson 7 of 46 15% 4 of 39 2 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julio Arce 24 of 43 55% 23 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 22 2 of 2 11 of 19
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julio Arce vs. Montel Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-200), Arce (+170)

Round 1
Arce was victorious in his first appearance of 2022, while Jackson, who has won five of six UFC outings, will return to the Octagon for the first time in 14 months. Marc Goddard will be the third man in the cage. They touch gloves and we’re underway. Jackson changes levels within the first 30 seconds and shoves Arce into the fence. Jackson lands some knees to the body, but one lands on the cup, which prompts a warning from Goddard but no reset. Jackson thinks about a single-leg but Arce defends, and Jackson lands a short punch to the head instead. The crowd is already getting restless as Jackson continues to grind away against the fence. Goddard urges the combatants to stay busy. Arce can’t get his back off the fence and we’re halfway through the round when Goddard orders a restart in the center of the cage. Arce has a kick to the body partially blocked. He’s cautious, perhaps due to the threat of the Jackson takedown. Arce fires a straight to the body followed by a leg kick. Arce pressures and both men exchange jabs. Arce picks up the pace and fires off an overhand left. Jackson moves in with a right hook. Arce pressures as time winds down, and Jackson defends a takedown in the final 10 seconds. Arce muscles his opponent to the mat just before the horn, however.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arce

Round 2
Arce again takes the center of the cage, and he lands a left hand as he backs Jackson up. An inside leg kick connects for Arce. An outside leg kick lands for Jackson. Arce continues to lead the dance and he moves in behind a right hook, but Jackson lands a counter in response. A right hook connects for Jackson. Another counter right lands for Jackson, who is having more success but isn’t landing in great volume. Jackson connects with a solid right. Arce throws a right hook and Jackson angles out. Jackson is sticking his right hand with some consistency now as Arce pressures. Jackson shoots for a takedown against the fence. He steps around and gets the back of his opponent. Jackson continues to grind away until the horn, mixing in a knee with some dirty boxing.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
Arce comes out throwing combinations, but it’s Jackson who lands a right hand during an initial exchange. Moments later, Jackson puts Arce on his back with a stiff jab. Jackson assumes top position and works to land punches from inside Arce’s guard. Arce seems to have recovered, and he’s very active with his guard. Jackson is struggling to control the hips, and Arce nearly frames a triangle. Jackson works to stack Arce, but he is unable to pass at the 2:30 mark of the round. Arce sits up and then stands. Arce has some swelling under his left eye. Arce is not finding the range on his punches. Jackson finds an opening a tags Arce with a right hand. Arce pressures forward and whiffs on some looping punches. Arce moves in with punches and Jackson ties him up, shoving his foe into the fence. Jackson lands a short right on the break. Jackson with a straight left in the waning seconds, and he dodges a final Arce offering before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)

The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Julia Arce via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo believes Julio Arce is the better technical striker but has a suspect chin. He trusts Montel Jackson's wrestling and power, noting that Jackson's only losses are to wrestlers who out-grappled him. He thinks Jackson will win by using his takedowns and power, rather than trying to out-strike Arce. He mentions that the takedown prop lines will be interesting and that he will likely bet on Jackson's takedowns.

takedown lines on PrizePicks and BetOnline
"I trust montel's takedowns I have him winning this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by decision. He highlights Jackson's size, reach, power (10 knockdowns in UFC), and wrestling (over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes at 78% accuracy). He notes Arce has good takedown defense (94%) but hasn't faced many wrestlers. He believes Jackson will mix takedowns and land the bigger shots, winning a decision. He also mentions Jackson's youth and power advantage.

Jackson by decision
"give me Montel Jackson to win give me Montel Jackson to win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody picks Arce, citing his excellent footwork, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He notes that Jackson has not fought top competition and that Arce's movement and striking should give Jackson trouble. Cody thinks if Jackson can't take Arce down, Arce will outpoint him. He is not highly confident but sees value at plus money.

"I do feel like Julio she has the goods to go out there and pull it off and a plus 175 I'm willing to take a slight flyer on that."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Connor picks Arce, noting that Jackson has not improved in four years and lacks depth in his grappling and striking. He points out that Arce is a complete fighter with sharp footwork and counters, and that Jackson's wrestling is not good enough to hold Arce down. Connor also mentions that Arce has been getting better and has faced higher-level competition.

"I think RSA can edge this one out."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson, citing his immense talent, power, wrestling, and physical attributes. He notes that Jackson has knockout power and a reach advantage, but his work ethic is questionable. Levi believes if Jackson shows up focused, he can dominate. He respects Arce's point-fighting style but thinks Jackson's power and wrestling will be the difference.

"give me Montel Jackson here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julio Arce

The host believes Arce is the better technical striker with superior footwork and kicks, and his 94% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. He questions Jackson's competition level, noting his wins are over lower-tier opponents and he struggles against better grapplers. Arce's output and volume should frustrate Jackson, leading to a decision win. The host acknowledges Arce's durability concerns but sees value at +175.

"I think that this is a good spot to take an underdog shot on Julio or say at plus 175"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul also leans towards Arce, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes that Jackson is enormous for the weight class and that Arce will have to eat shots to get inside, but if Arce keeps the fight standing, it should be close to a pick'em. Paul is not confident but goes with Arce.

"I'll lean ever so slightly towards Julio Archie with you but another spot I'm not too confident in."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson, citing his underrated prospect status, massive hands, and physical advantages like a 5.5-inch reach advantage. He believes Jackson can outwork Arce on the feet and predicts a close split decision 29-28. He notes Jackson's grappling defense against good grapplers like Brett Johns and Ricky Simon.

"I'm going with Montel Jackson here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Zane picks Arce, emphasizing that Jackson's striking is one-dimensional and he lacks confidence in it. He notes that Arce's consistent style and ability to handle pressure fighters like Daniel Santos make him a good bet. Zane also points out that Jackson's wins have come against lower-level competition, while Arce has fought tougher opponents.

"I think RSA should be, uh, if anything, a slight to healthy favorite."
WIN vs JP Buys
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 4 25 of 43 58% 91 of 117 4 of 5 80% 1 0 10:03
JP Buys 0 8 of 24 33% 39 of 60 1 of 7 14% 3 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 0 8 of 12 66% 27 of 34 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:36
JP Buys 0 3 of 8 37% 9 of 15 1 of 4 25% 2 0 1:20
2 Montel Jackson 2 7 of 12 58% 21 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:07
JP Buys 0 2 of 6 33% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
3 Montel Jackson 2 10 of 19 52% 43 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:20
JP Buys 0 3 of 10 30% 16 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 25 of 43 58% 18 of 36 7 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 17 6 of 8 8 of 18
JP Buys 8 of 24 33% 3 of 10 4 of 13 1 of 1 6 of 22 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 8 of 12 66% 4 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 5 3 of 5
JP Buys 3 of 8 37% 1 of 4 1 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Montel Jackson 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 3
JP Buys 2 of 6 33% 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Montel Jackson 10 of 19 52% 9 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 10
JP Buys 3 of 10 30% 1 of 4 2 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo picks Montel Jackson as he is well-rounded with power, striking, and wrestling. He notes JP Buys has a path via wrestling but Montel is too good everywhere. He does not like the moneyline at -700 but has a bet on over 1.5 rounds because he thinks Buys will survive early and make it past the first round and a half.

Over 1.5 rounds (plus money)
"montel jackson's the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady is very confident in Montel Jackson, citing huge size and reach advantages. He notes JP Buys is moving up a weight class on short notice and has a history of gassing out. He predicts Jackson will finish Buys in the second round, either by knockout or submission, as Buys has never been to a decision.

second round finish
"i think montel jackson's going to win he probably even wins in the first round to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Cody is very confident in Jackson, citing his size, power, and improved takedown defense. He notes that JP Buys is undersized, on short notice, and failed to wrestle in his UFC debut. Cody believes Jackson will keep the fight standing and land a knockout.

Over 1.5 rounds -150 (suggested)
"it's got to be montel the whole way through"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Montel Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson to finish JP Buys. He believes Jackson has top-five potential and skills, despite past criticism of his mentality. He notes Buys is composed but lacks the goods, and Jackson's path to victory is finishing him. He advises against betting the moneyline at -650 and suggests looking at props like inside distance.

Montel Jackson to finish JP Buys (inside distance)
"my pick is montel jackson to finish jp base just don't just just don't you know take your foot off the gas and get grinded that's really the thing here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Montel Jackson

Preet picks Montel Jackson to win, expecting a finish. He notes Jackson has better striking and power, while Buys is fragile and tends to quit when pressured. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision at -200 and Jackson by KO at +105.

Fight doesn't go to decision -200, Montel Jackson by KO +105
"I actually like the fight doesn't go to decision here it's like minus 200 range I really like that spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Paul has Jackson in his parlay, noting his physical advantages and Buys' lack of wrestling. He believes Jackson's power and full camp will be decisive. Paul mentions he bet the over 1.5 rounds as well.

Over 1.5 rounds -150
"montel jackson was the second leg of the of said parlay"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round KO, calling it the 'stupidest decision' for JP Buys to take this fight. He emphasizes Jackson's size, power, and grappling advantage, noting he shut down Brett Johns' grappling. He predicts Jackson will land a big shot and finish Buys early.

first round KO
"montel jackson first round ko stupidest decision of anyone's career ever"
WIN vs Jesse Strader
TKO (punches) R1 1:58 · UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland · Mar 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 2 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Jesse Strader 0 14 of 25 56% 14 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 2 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Jesse Strader 0 14 of 25 56% 14 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 15 of 26 57% 11 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 12 3 of 4 7 of 10
Jesse Strader 14 of 25 56% 3 of 7 3 of 7 8 of 11 12 of 22 0 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 15 of 26 57% 11 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 12 3 of 4 7 of 10
Jesse Strader 14 of 25 56% 3 of 7 3 of 7 8 of 11 12 of 22 0 of 1 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Montel Jackson vs. Jesse Strader (137.5: Missed Weight)

Round 1
The next fight of the night comes at a 138-pound catchweight when a fighter missed weight. “Quik” Jackson (9-2, 3-2 UFC) will look to quick work of Strader (5-1, 0-0 UFC) and make the newcomer pay for missing the mark by 1.5 pounds. Referee Keith Peterson has slain all the nonsense in the building, and the two touch gloves before throwing down. Strader backs off and chips at his opponent with several leg kicks, as Jackson is content to march him down without throwing anything. Strader keeps landing a kick or two low, until Jackson winds up with a booming head kick. It barely gets blocked, and he chains the kick into a leg kick that surprises Strader. The newcomer targets the body and legs indiscriminately, as Jackson aims single kicks in response. “Sui Generis” lets fly kick after hacking kick, and Jackson is tired of it and winds up a huge right hand. Strader ducks it, and Jackson follows it with a knee to the chest and a huge right hand that puts Strader down hard. “Quik” chases after him with punches, but the newcomer jumps back to his feet and swings back to get Jackson to back off.
Jackson bites down on his gumshield, wings a pair of nasty punches and levels Strader once more. “Sui Generis” slumps down into the corner between the fencing and the canvas, and Jackson lords over him dropping bombs. “Quik” continues to pour it on with fast but devastating punches until Peterson has seen enough.
That was quick.

The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Jesse Strader R1 1:58 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady is very confident in Montel Jackson, calling him the biggest favorite on the card for good reason. He notes Jackson is a much better fighter with a significant skill advantage, while Strader is green and has fought low-level competition. Brady expects Jackson to win by first-round knockout, as Strader has been hurt by lesser opponents and Jackson can pick him apart or take him down.

Montel Jackson wins by KO in round 1
"i'm gonna go with montel jackson here to win i'm gonna say first round at knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2021 (fight day)
Montel Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson confidently, stating Strader is over his head. He worries about Jackson's focus and past stalling but expects a dominant finish, likely by knockout or submission. He emphasizes that Jackson's talent should shine against this level of competition.

Jackson by knockout or submission
"he's going to get his ass beat in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Montel Jackson has all the tools: great wrestling, sneaky submission game, improving striking and cardio. He uses his range well and has crazy grip strength. Jesse Strader throws bombs and has power, but his only path is a KO. Jackson should get the takedown and eventually lock up a submission. The line is too wide at -650, but Jackson wins handily.

Jackson by submission (+400), under 2.5 rounds (-185), Strader KO (+1265) worth a sprinkle
"I think we'll see him complete the takedowns i think we'll see him crowd straighter on the ground and just you know really get to work there and eventually lock up some sort of submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Mar 14, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

The MMA Guru calls Montel Jackson the lock of the card. He praises Jackson's underrated prospect status, giant hands, and patience. He expects Jackson to weather Strader's early aggression and finish him by second-round TKO. He notes Strader is a good fighter with quick finishes but doesn't see him finishing Jackson.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go with montel jackson i think this is the lock of the card and the odds dictate that massively"
JP Buys - Fight History
LOSS vs Marcus McGhee
KO (punch) R1 2:19 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcus McGhee 0 4 of 30 13% 4 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
JP Buys 1 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcus McGhee 0 4 of 30 13% 4 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
JP Buys 1 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcus McGhee 4 of 30 13% 2 of 22 1 of 3 1 of 5 4 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
JP Buys 7 of 13 53% 6 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcus McGhee 4 of 30 13% 2 of 22 1 of 3 1 of 5 4 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
JP Buys 7 of 13 53% 6 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marcus McGhee vs. J.P. Buys
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McGhee (-350), Buys (+280)

Round 1
In the combined 16 victories for South African wrestler Buys (9-5, 0-3 UFC) and power-punching MMA Lab export McGhee (7-1, 1-0 UFC), neither man has ever heard the final bell. In fact, of the two men, Buys is the only one to ever go the distance, when he lost by decision to Montel Jackson nearly two years ago. Referee Jason Herzog will need to hold onto his proverbial hard hat as these bantamweights get after it. There is a calm glove touch before the potential madness ensues. McGhee tosses out a range-finding low kick and blocks a head kick that comes back at him. McGhee spins with a wheel kick that misses the mark, and he keeps moving to not let Buys land on him with sporadic strikes. McGhee sits down on a thudding leg kick and swats away a high kick, and he throws a right hand with the forward pressure that makes Buys bounce off of him. Buys catches his man with a right hand, and the two trade strikes until a Buys kick splits the uprights. McGhee shakes it off and does not let them pause, as he walks “Young Savage” down and plows into him with a fierce one-two. Buys reels and gathers his thoughts, and he tries to swing kicks but is not able to land anything.
“The Maniac” unleashes a ferocious right hand on the chin that sends Buys crashing down on his face, and Herzog immediately jumps between them as McGhee specifically holds back on any additional strikes. Buys snaps back into focus, and he thinks the fight is still going. Buys chases after McGhee, who has walked off to celebrate, and he half-heartedly tries to take McGhee down.
As Buys crashes into the wall, still not entirely with it, Herzog officially waves the fight off, and Buys has to take a moment to process things after getting short-circuited. The triumphant McGhee is now 2-0 in the UFC with two stoppages, and his finish rate remains sterling at 100%.

The Official Result
Marcus McGhee def. J.P. Buys R1 2:19 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Angelo calls McGhee his most confident pick on the card, saying he should be -1000. He highlights McGhee's power, takedown defense, and finishing ability, while Buys has a weak chin and poor defensive wrestling. He plans to hammer the inside the distance prop when it drops.

Inside the distance (when prop drops)
"Marcus McGee is my most confident pick on this card his minus 350 odds are a gift"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Big Brady picks Marcus McGhee to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He calls this the biggest mismatch on the card, noting JP Buys's poor durability (knocked down 8 times in 3 UFC fights) and McGhee's power. He acknowledges Buys's wrestling but doubts it will be effective against a bigger McGhee who has improved takedown defense. He predicts a late first-round knockout.

knockout, likely first round
"I'm gonna take Marcus McGee to win this fight um I absolutely think it's a knockout and I think it probably comes could be even in the first round but if it's not the first it's it's the second so"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Cody picks McGhee, praising his toughness, power, and training at MMA Lab with Sean O'Malley. He notes Buys' cardio issues and weak chin, and that Buys has been knocked down repeatedly. He thinks McGhee's power and durability will be too much, and that Buys' wrestling advantage is negated by his poor cardio. He predicts McGhee clips him and knocks him out.

"Mickey Clips him at some point knocks him out would be how I would see it"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JP Buys

James is leaning toward Buys as a +300 underdog, thinking Buys can submit McGhee in the first round. He notes McGhee struggled with takedowns and back takes, and Buys has a good choke game. However, he acknowledges Buys has been destroyed on the feet multiple times. James is considering a bet on Buys' moneyline or a submission prop.

James mentions possibly playing the submission or round 1 submission prop for Buys.
"I think JP Buys can submit Marcus McGhee in the first round... I'm fairly confident I'm going to be taking some type of poke on JP Buys here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

McGhee is explosive and powerful early, with a successful short-notice UFC debut. Buys is on a three-fight losing streak and has a bad gas tank. McGhee's power and speed should be too much for Buys, and he will likely get a knockout in the first round. However, the chalk is too high, so a prop on McGhee by KO in round 1 is better.

McGhee by KO in round 1
"I think McGee wins this matchup but the talk is just too much for me to willingly go out there and play that I'd rather just play McGee by knockout or knock out in round one"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Paul picks McGhee, citing size and strength advantages. He notes Buys used to fight at 125 and is moving up, while McGhee is a natural bantamweight. He thinks McGhee's power and takedown defense will be key, and that Buys' cardio issues will be exacerbated by the weight cut. He sees McGhee winning by knockout or decision.

"McGee will be the pick over you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

The MMA Guru confidently picks Marcus McGhee over JP Buys, criticizing Buys for taking the fight on short notice while on a three-fight losing streak. He praises McGhee's impressive debut and full training camp, noting his experience since 2012. He predicts McGhee will break Buys down and finish him by second-round TKO.

Second round TKO
"he's going to lose simple as that I do not see him winning this fight"
LOSS vs Cody Durden
TKO (punches) R1 1:08 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Durden 0 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
JP Buys 1 23 of 30 76% 34 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Durden 0 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
JP Buys 1 23 of 30 76% 34 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Durden 7 of 11 63% 4 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
JP Buys 23 of 30 76% 21 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Durden 7 of 11 63% 4 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
JP Buys 23 of 30 76% 21 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Angelo picks Cody Durden, finding the line move bizarre. He expects Durden to come forward with big shots and work his takedowns, noting that if Montel Jackson could take JP Buys down four times, Durden can too. He acknowledges Durden tends to fade but believes his chain wrestling and pressure will be enough. He has a moneyline bet on Durden.

moneyline bet on Cody Durden
"i do love durden in this matchup and the line move is bizarre to me i think he comes forward throws big shots and works in his takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Big Brady picks Cody Durden to win by second-round knockout, but expresses low confidence. He notes that both fighters have poor durability and cardio, but favors Durden's striking power and durability over JP Buys's chin (Buys has been knocked down 7-8 times in UFC). He acknowledges Buys's submission threat early, but believes Durden's better cardio and power will lead to a finish in the second round. He calls it a tough fight to call.

Durden wins by KO in round 2
"i'm gonna say cody durden does knock out jp bays i'm gonna say he finishes him in that second round second round knockout for cody durden"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
JP Buys

Cody likes Buys, citing his youth, wrestling credentials, and better striking. He notes Durden's poor cardio and that Buys will put a pace on him. He thinks Buys can win by submission or decision.

"i like jp buys i love the price i think it gets the job done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
JP Buys

Paul agrees after Cody's reasoning, and will bet Buys. He notes Durden's pattern of wins and losses but thinks Buys has the edge.

"i am going to as well now that you're so confident in it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cody Durden

The host picks Cody Durden, citing JP Buys' questionable cardio and tendency to fade after a strong start. He notes Durden's good first-round control against Chris Gutierrez and believes Durden will grind out a decision, winning rounds two and three after losing the first. He acknowledges Buys is dangerous and explosive but trusts Durden's pace.

decision win prediction, 29-28 score
"i'm gonna go with cody durden"
LOSS vs Montel Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 4 25 of 43 58% 91 of 117 4 of 5 80% 1 0 10:03
JP Buys 0 8 of 24 33% 39 of 60 1 of 7 14% 3 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 0 8 of 12 66% 27 of 34 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:36
JP Buys 0 3 of 8 37% 9 of 15 1 of 4 25% 2 0 1:20
2 Montel Jackson 2 7 of 12 58% 21 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:07
JP Buys 0 2 of 6 33% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
3 Montel Jackson 2 10 of 19 52% 43 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:20
JP Buys 0 3 of 10 30% 16 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 25 of 43 58% 18 of 36 7 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 17 6 of 8 8 of 18
JP Buys 8 of 24 33% 3 of 10 4 of 13 1 of 1 6 of 22 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 8 of 12 66% 4 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 5 3 of 5
JP Buys 3 of 8 37% 1 of 4 1 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Montel Jackson 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 3
JP Buys 2 of 6 33% 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Montel Jackson 10 of 19 52% 9 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 10
JP Buys 3 of 10 30% 1 of 4 2 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo picks Montel Jackson as he is well-rounded with power, striking, and wrestling. He notes JP Buys has a path via wrestling but Montel is too good everywhere. He does not like the moneyline at -700 but has a bet on over 1.5 rounds because he thinks Buys will survive early and make it past the first round and a half.

Over 1.5 rounds (plus money)
"montel jackson's the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady is very confident in Montel Jackson, citing huge size and reach advantages. He notes JP Buys is moving up a weight class on short notice and has a history of gassing out. He predicts Jackson will finish Buys in the second round, either by knockout or submission, as Buys has never been to a decision.

second round finish
"i think montel jackson's going to win he probably even wins in the first round to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Cody is very confident in Jackson, citing his size, power, and improved takedown defense. He notes that JP Buys is undersized, on short notice, and failed to wrestle in his UFC debut. Cody believes Jackson will keep the fight standing and land a knockout.

Over 1.5 rounds -150 (suggested)
"it's got to be montel the whole way through"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Montel Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson to finish JP Buys. He believes Jackson has top-five potential and skills, despite past criticism of his mentality. He notes Buys is composed but lacks the goods, and Jackson's path to victory is finishing him. He advises against betting the moneyline at -650 and suggests looking at props like inside distance.

Montel Jackson to finish JP Buys (inside distance)
"my pick is montel jackson to finish jp base just don't just just don't you know take your foot off the gas and get grinded that's really the thing here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Montel Jackson

Preet picks Montel Jackson to win, expecting a finish. He notes Jackson has better striking and power, while Buys is fragile and tends to quit when pressured. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision at -200 and Jackson by KO at +105.

Fight doesn't go to decision -200, Montel Jackson by KO +105
"I actually like the fight doesn't go to decision here it's like minus 200 range I really like that spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Paul has Jackson in his parlay, noting his physical advantages and Buys' lack of wrestling. He believes Jackson's power and full camp will be decisive. Paul mentions he bet the over 1.5 rounds as well.

Over 1.5 rounds -150
"montel jackson was the second leg of the of said parlay"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round KO, calling it the 'stupidest decision' for JP Buys to take this fight. He emphasizes Jackson's size, power, and grappling advantage, noting he shut down Brett Johns' grappling. He predicts Jackson will land a big shot and finish Buys early.

first round KO
"montel jackson first round ko stupidest decision of anyone's career ever"
LOSS vs Bruno Silva
TKO (punches) R2 2:56 · UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland · Mar 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bruno Silva 3 37 of 61 60% 62 of 89 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:51
JP Buys 0 17 of 56 30% 37 of 76 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bruno Silva 0 15 of 23 65% 29 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:33
JP Buys 0 6 of 22 27% 21 of 37 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:50
2 Bruno Silva 3 22 of 38 57% 33 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
JP Buys 0 11 of 34 32% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bruno Silva 37 of 61 60% 29 of 51 4 of 6 4 of 4 26 of 43 1 of 2 10 of 16
JP Buys 17 of 56 30% 8 of 42 4 of 7 5 of 7 15 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bruno Silva 15 of 23 65% 8 of 14 4 of 6 3 of 3 12 of 18 1 of 2 2 of 3
JP Buys 6 of 22 27% 2 of 14 1 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bruno Silva 22 of 38 57% 21 of 37 0 of 0 1 of 1 14 of 25 0 of 0 8 of 13
JP Buys 11 of 34 32% 6 of 28 3 of 3 2 of 3 9 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
J.P. Buys vs. Bruno Silva

Round 1
By the time fight night started, UFC on ESPN 21 was left with 10 bouts. We begin this shortened card in the flyweight division, when Buys (9-2, 0-0 UFC) looks for his successful debut against “Bulldog” Silva (10-5-2, 1 NC; 0-2, 1 NC UFC). The former will be aiming to make good on a married couple winning tonight – wife Cheyanne Buys competes later – while the latter searches for his first win inside the Octagon. This card opener draws officiating from referee Mark Smith, and the two 125ers touch gloves to kick off the night. Silva comes out jittery, and when he steps forward with a reaching left hand and flush kick to the cup. Fortuitous opening to the evening’s hostilities. Buys tries to walk it off, but the action is paused for a bit over 30 seconds before he is ready to go again. Both men come out swinging, and Silva aims a calf kick as Buys throws a right hand. Silva sits down on a right hand and another calf kick, and Buys walks through it but is surprised. Silva reaches out with his fingers outstretched and jabs Buys in the eye with his thumb, and we have another break as Smith is not thrilled with Silva. The South African takes 45 seconds to clear his vision, and Smith issues Silva a hard warning. Silva does not close his fists when engaging and draws a shout from Smith. When the two come together, Buys slips and falls to his back, where the Brazilian dives on top into the guard. Buys rolls and nearly frees himself in a scramble, but “Bulldog” is resilient and remains on top. Buys looks to sweep, and as he does, Silva times it and advances to half guard. The newcomer kicks off, and Silva rides the kick and climbs back into his foe’s open guard. Buys scoots his way back to the fence, gets to a knee and wall-walks to his feet. Silva delivers a knee to the chest, and he picks Buys up from behind and slams him down on his face. Buys shakes it off, stands again and threatens with a kimura to sweep. Silva stands up, and Buys is able to reverse the position and press the Brazilian into the wire. Buys works his man on the fence with a couple shoulder strikes, and Silva twists him back around before they separate. Buys whiffs on a big head kick, but he does manage to bully Silva back. Silva responds with an uppercut, and he catches his opponent with another shot before rushing into a clinch. Buys defends himself mashed into the fence by slapping his adversary in the ear, and they break free again. Silva cracks Buys with a spinning back fist that lands on the forearm, and Buys drops to knee as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
Silva charges out of his corner to begin the round, and he launches a spinning kick and comes up short as Smith warns him already to not reach with his fingers. Buys chases him down with a few head kicks, and he throws one too hard and loses his balance. As soon as Silva sees this, he charges in and plows Buys over, where he starts dropping down hammers. Even in full guard, Silva is doing work with strikes from on top, until Buys latches on to him to keep him trapped. Silva bucks and stands up, where Buys uses the momentum to get standing as well. As Buys hops away, Silva kicks him in the face, but the South African appears unconcerned. Buys instead charges towards his opponent, throwing combinations and even mixing in a few low kicks. Silva throws back, but Buys is advancing heavily. Buys walks into a clean right hand, and his knees wiggle for a moment but he crashes into the clinch. After a brief clinch exchange, they break apart and Silva nails him with a quick combination. Silva blasts Buys with a nasty right hand and sends Buys flying, leading to Buys doing a somersault to recover. Buys gets up, and he falls back into the fence as Silva is ripping into him with a storm of punches. On rubber legs but still in the fight, Buys tries to escape.
“Bulldog” relentlessly pursues his man, and he loads up with a monster right hand that buckles Buys’ legs and puts him down once and for all.
Smith sees that Buys is done, and he jumps in to save the “Young Savage” from any more damage. What a way to start the night!

The Official Result
Bruno Silva def. J.P. Buys R2 2:56 via TKO (Punch)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Big Brady picks Bruno Silva as an underdog, citing JP Buys' cardio issues and tendency to gas after the first round. He notes Buys has never been to a decision and has been finished before, while Silva is a black belt in BJJ with better cardio and takedown defense. Brady believes if Silva survives the early storm, he will take over and finish Buys by TKO in the second round.

Bruno Silva wins by TKO in round 2
"I like bruno silva here i'm going to pick him to win by second round tko"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2021 (fight day)
JP Buys

Daniel Levi picks JP Buys, expecting him to get off to a big lead and possibly an early submission. He notes Buys' cardio issues but thinks he can weather the storm and win a decision. He acknowledges Bruno Silva's improvements but sees Buys as the more physical fighter early.

"i'm gonna go with jp to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Bruno Silva has shown great cardio against high-level opponents like Dvorak and Ulanbekov, while JP Buys slows down past the first round. Silva's ability to survive the early storm and take over later in the fight is key. Buys has better striking technique but his cardio issues make him vulnerable as a favorite. Silva should win by decision, though Buys has potential if he fixes his cardio.

Silva by decision
"I will go with bruno uh i'll take him to win by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

The MMA Guru picks Bruno Silva over JP Buys. He believes Silva's superior competition (close fights with Tagir Ulanbekov and David Dvořák) gives him an edge. He expects Silva to wear on Buys as the fight goes on, using his grappling and stand-up, and win by unanimous decision (29-28). He notes Buys starts fast but slows down, as seen against Joby Sanchez.

"i'm probably going to take him as an underdog here against jp buyers"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo picks Montel Jackson as he is well-rounded with power, striking, and wrestling. He notes JP Buys has a path via wrestling but Montel is too good everywhere. He does not like the moneyline at -700 but has a bet on over 1.5 rounds because he thinks Buys will survive early and make it past the first round and a half.

Over 1.5 rounds (plus money)
"montel jackson's the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady is very confident in Montel Jackson, citing huge size and reach advantages. He notes JP Buys is moving up a weight class on short notice and has a history of gassing out. He predicts Jackson will finish Buys in the second round, either by knockout or submission, as Buys has never been to a decision.

second round finish
"i think montel jackson's going to win he probably even wins in the first round to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Cody is very confident in Jackson, citing his size, power, and improved takedown defense. He notes that JP Buys is undersized, on short notice, and failed to wrestle in his UFC debut. Cody believes Jackson will keep the fight standing and land a knockout.

Over 1.5 rounds -150 (suggested)
"it's got to be montel the whole way through"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Montel Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson to finish JP Buys. He believes Jackson has top-five potential and skills, despite past criticism of his mentality. He notes Buys is composed but lacks the goods, and Jackson's path to victory is finishing him. He advises against betting the moneyline at -650 and suggests looking at props like inside distance.

Montel Jackson to finish JP Buys (inside distance)
"my pick is montel jackson to finish jp base just don't just just don't you know take your foot off the gas and get grinded that's really the thing here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Montel Jackson

Preet picks Montel Jackson to win, expecting a finish. He notes Jackson has better striking and power, while Buys is fragile and tends to quit when pressured. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision at -200 and Jackson by KO at +105.

Fight doesn't go to decision -200, Montel Jackson by KO +105
"I actually like the fight doesn't go to decision here it's like minus 200 range I really like that spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Paul has Jackson in his parlay, noting his physical advantages and Buys' lack of wrestling. He believes Jackson's power and full camp will be decisive. Paul mentions he bet the over 1.5 rounds as well.

Over 1.5 rounds -150
"montel jackson was the second leg of the of said parlay"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round KO, calling it the 'stupidest decision' for JP Buys to take this fight. He emphasizes Jackson's size, power, and grappling advantage, noting he shut down Brett Johns' grappling. He predicts Jackson will land a big shot and finish Buys early.

first round KO
"montel jackson first round ko stupidest decision of anyone's career ever"