Thiago Moises

8-8
Record
Age / DOB 31
(Mar 23, 1995)
Height 5' 9"
Weight 155 lbs.
Reach 70.0"
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages
2.48 Sig. Strikes / Min
42.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
4.08 Absorbed / Min
53.0% Strike Defense
1.31 TD Avg / 15 min
35.0% TD Accuracy
52.0% TD Defense
1.1 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (8)
KO/TKO 1
Submission 3
Decision 4
Loss Methods (8)
KO/TKO 3
Submission 1
Decision 4

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
Decision R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Moises 0 45 of 101 44% 46 of 103 2 of 15 13% 0 0 2:33
Gauge Young 1 122 of 226 53% 131 of 237 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Moises 0 8 of 13 61% 9 of 15 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:22
Gauge Young 0 9 of 23 39% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:17
2 Thiago Moises 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:11
Gauge Young 0 44 of 88 50% 44 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Thiago Moises 0 23 of 50 46% 23 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Gauge Young 1 69 of 115 60% 74 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Moises 45 of 101 44% 34 of 81 1 of 3 10 of 17 42 of 97 2 of 3 1 of 1
Gauge Young 122 of 226 53% 62 of 157 27 of 34 33 of 35 114 of 211 2 of 2 6 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Moises 8 of 13 61% 4 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Gauge Young 9 of 23 39% 2 of 16 0 of 0 7 of 7 9 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thiago Moises 14 of 38 36% 9 of 27 0 of 1 5 of 10 14 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gauge Young 44 of 88 50% 19 of 60 12 of 14 13 of 14 43 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Thiago Moises 23 of 50 46% 21 of 45 0 of 1 2 of 4 22 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gauge Young 69 of 115 60% 41 of 81 15 of 20 13 of 14 62 of 101 1 of 1 6 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Young (-130); Moises (+110)

Round 1
Once a hot commodity off of the sole Brazilian season of Dana White’s Contender Series, Moises (19-9, 8-7 UFC) has regressed to the mean and is one defeat away from falling to .500 in the promotion. Young (10-3, 1-1 UFC) has gone one up and one down thus far, so he is looking to break out of that pattern and into greater heights. They will battle it out under the auspices of referee Jason Herzog, who will be keeping tabs on the 155ers for as long as they keep fighting.
There is no touch of gloves. Moises pressure immediately forward, backing Young to the fence and shooting in on his hips within 10 seconds. Young places his back against the wall to keep himself afloat, and as Moises keeps clinging to his man, the crowd grows quite restless. Moises ignores the boos and irritation from the audience and keeps tight to him. Young flips Moises over him, and Moises recovers quickly enough so both men stand up. Young tosses out a high kick to keep Moises honest, and he ducks a looping punch but cannot evade a front kick aimed at his jaw. Young probes with a jab and low kick, and Moises catches him in transition with a left hook. They jab at the same time, and Young just misses a looping punch as Moises kicks the lead calf. Young stays behind his jab.
Moises loads up on power, and Young sees it coming and also knows a takedown is soon to test him. Young stops the first effort, but the Brazilian redoubles his attempt and succeeds in putting Young down. Young wall-walks to stand up, and he gives his back up in the process. Moises hops onto his back and wraps his legs around the waist while flirting with a choke attempt. Moises wraps his forearm across the face and tries to squeeze it, but the American is able to fight it off and kick off the fencing to drop to his knees. Moises welcomes this as he is leaned against the cage, and he smacks Young in the face with an undercut sneakily beneath Young’s armpit. Young sells out all the way to turn about, and Moises does not entirely give up the position and has Young trapped in an awkward side-turned position that contorts his spine but is not about to force him to tap. Young breaks out and finds himself in armbar danger, and he stacks the Brazilian up and lands a few punches to conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 2
There is a slight fist bump to kick off the round, and Young is quick to follow that bump with kicks from both limbs. Moises jabs to the body to open up a right hand, and Young does not fall for the latter. Young jabs the body with his heel, and he reaches out with a right hook. Moises chops at the front leg, and Young stumbles forward but is still more than willing to trade. The American digs a shot to the body and goes after an uppercut, and Moises is just out of range with the latter. Moises wraps a right hand around the ear and shoots for a single, with Young defending it and pushing off. Moises shoulder-rolls a heavy right hand but the jabs are continuing to score. Young jabs Moises up with a kick to the stomach and follows with a punch before he has to sprawl the incoming takedown. Moises bullies Young to the wire for a few seconds, and Young knows he cannot get ground out again and breaks out soon.
He proceeds to jab and cross Moises with short combinations, and he just misses with a step-in knee. Moises wants another takedown, but Young is not having it and shucks him away easily. Both men look to double up their jab and come over the top with a right hand, but neither is able to do so as the big rights are telegraphed. They pick at one another with low kicks and stay busy from up close, not overswinging anything and just selecting their places carefully. It is one after the other, Moises lands, Young fires back, Moises keeps on throwing and Young is ready for more. Moises shoots low for a takedown, and he gets pushed away and nearly booted in the face when standing up. The Brazilian manages to tackle Young over, and he comes up short with a hefty knee. Young puts his fists on Moises up high and to the chest, rolling with a right hand to press ever forward until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Young
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Young
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Young

Round 3
Young offers a high-five, and Moises accepts it before the final frame ensues. Young gets back right where he left off, slowly pressing the action and outboxing the slugging Moises. Moises is loading up on sheer power, while Young is content to touch and move. Young pitches Moises to the side when Moises changes levels, and he delivers a stern uppercut to the jaw and staggers the Brazilian with a follow-up right. He also marks Moises’ face up on multiple places, including both cheeks and the bridge of the nose. Young steps in with a sharp elbow, and he tosses Moises to the side as Moises predictably shoots in on his hips. Young kicks Moises’ lead leg out from him as Moises is shooting for a takedown, and Moises flops to his back while Young raises in arms in the air. Moises stands up thanks to Herzog, and he steps in with a thudding elbow on the nose. Moises failed takedown is an even worse look when he falls to his back again when he does not get it. Young forces him to stand.
Moises tries to brawl, but he is far too slow while Young picks him apart with fast combinations. Young clips Moises behind the ear, sending the Brazilian collapsing to the mat, and he follows him down to bash him with punches and hammerfists. When there is no finish in sight, Young dances around to showboat and gets Herzog to bring him back upright. Young beats Moises with a left hand and points at it, and he is feeling himself and motioning in a Diaz-like manner any thing he lands flush. Moises stands firm and drills him with a right hand, and Young shakes it out to re-engage. Moises meets him with sheer power, hurling his right hand like he wants to knock the head of “Gee Money” into the third row. Young tanks the ones that connect and backs Moises to the wall, stinging him with an elbow but getting caught flush with a power right hand. Moises is swinging with hammers, and Young picks him apart and has his hands up to defend from the most dangerous of attacks. Moises punctuates the brawl with two punches and a head kick, and the lightweights hug it out after a hard-fought contest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)

The Official Result
Gauge Young def. Thiago Moises via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Angelo picks Gauge Young despite acknowledging Thiago Moises is good everywhere. He likes Gauge's aggression, scrambling, and forward pressure, believing he will do more and impress judges. He worries about Gauge cutting easily and bleeding, which could affect judging.

"But I'm still going to pick Gaej here. Because I love the aggression."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Big Brady picks Thiago Moises as an underdog, citing his elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Moises' inconsistency but believes he wins step-down fights. Brady points out Grant Dawson's vulnerability to takedowns and submissions, and predicts Moises will win by decision.

decision
"Give me Thiago Moises to win. I'll take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Cody picks Gauge Young, citing his youth, volume, and recent improvements. He notes that Thiago Moises is inconsistent and has taken a lot of damage. He also mentions that Moises' chin is a question mark after the Jared Gordon loss.

"I'm going I'm going with youth here. And I will say Moises, although we said that he's, you know, only 31, it's just like let's face it, man. the amount of wars, damage, everything, wear and tear."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Daniel believes Moises is on a decline and has looked poor recently, while Young is improving and can push a pace that Moises struggles with. He thinks Young's hands and pressure will overwhelm Moises. He picks Young to get the biggest win of his career.

"I'm gonna pick Gage Young to come out here and get the biggest win of his career."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2026 (fight day)
Gauge Young

Young is a high-pressure striker with excellent cardio, while Moises has poor cardio and relies on grappling. Moises is passive on the feet and only shoots a few takedowns per fight. Young's takedown defense is good enough to scramble back up, and he will out-strike Moises significantly. This is a classic striker vs grappler where Young has a huge edge.

"Gage Young is my most confident bet on this card."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gauge Young

James picks Gauge Young to win, citing his durability, cardio, and pressure. He thinks Moises is on a downtrend and will struggle with Young's pace. Despite Moises being more skilled, James favors Young's will to win and stylistic advantages.

"I'm actually going to pick Gage Young here to get the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

The host is hesitant but picks Moises by submission, thinking he will eventually find a position to put Young away. He notes that Moises is being overlooked due to his knockout loss to Jared Gordon, and that his BJJ and striking can be competitive. However, he needs a good number on the Moises submission prop to pull the trigger.

Moises by submission
"I'm going to go Moises here. I'm going to go Moises by submission. I think he finally finds that position to put Young away."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Paul also picks Gauge Young, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Young's volume and Moises' inconsistency. He mentions that Moises' durability is a concern and that Young is the fresher fighter.

"Yeah, I think Gage Young just on the money line is how I'm going to approach this fight."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 1 7 of 13 53% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Thiago Moises 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 1 7 of 13 53% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Thiago Moises 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 7 of 13 53% 5 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Moises 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 7 of 13 53% 5 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Moises 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-110), Moises (-110)

Round 1
Lightweight veterans with technically equal records in the UFC—although one has a no contest—come to blows, with plans of remaining highly regarded in the talent-rich division. Gordon (20-7, 1 NC; 8-6, 1 NC UFC) is the one who also has the grey mark on his pace thanks to a clash of heads with Bobby Green, and has otherwise alternated wins and losses for a few years. The same can be said for Brazil’s Moises (19-8, 8-6 UFC), who is ready to continue the rivalry of his team of American Top Team against regional adversarial team Kill Cliff FC and its rep of Gordon. Referee Kerry Hatley will keep things on the up-and-up, but they are fine with one another and clap hands. The first strike thrown is a Moises body kick, which Gordon uses to easily sling his opponent to his back. Gordon practically walks into top control, and Moises wraps up his arms in an unorthodox armlock attack. Moises lets go of the lockup and lashes out with a short elbow off his back that opens a tiny cut on the top of Gordon’s forehead. Gordon responds with ample ground-and-pound of his own, smearing his blood all over the Brazilian’s head and chest. Moises works his way back up to his feet, ignoring the strikes lobbed at him so he can fight his way back up and away. They proceed to smack one another with low kicks, and Gordon darts in with a pair of punches that bounce off the guard. Leg kicks continue to fly, and they tag one another with single strikes. When Gordon ducks in to throw, Moises counters with a clean right hand over the top. “Flash” does not bat an eye, and instead lets Moises pitch a left hand at him.
This is exactly what he wants, as Gordon times a picture-perfect right hand that smashes into the American Top Team fighter’s chin and puts him down for the count. Moises’ head clatters off the mat when he collapses to the ground like a bird that’s had its wings clipped, and Gordon hammers the nail with a leaping right hand that gives commentator Michael Bisping flashbacks of when he took on Dan Henderson, cleanly separating Moises from his consciousness.
Before Hatley can get to them, Gordon gets one or two off that wake Moises back up, but they are merely academic as Gordon has dropped the hammer. Blood streaming down his face, Gordon stands up and shrugs, as if he knew he was going to do this all along. When Moises comes to, the two hug it out, but it is unclear if Moises knows the license plate number of the bus that just ran him over.

The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Thiago Moises R1 3:37 via KO (Punches)
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Angelo picks Thiago Moises after going back and forth. He acknowledges that Jared Gordon has been screwed on scorecards and could be on a win streak, but trusts Moises's training and activity. He notes that Moises is a slick grappler with technical striking and that Gordon is inactive and not on as good a team. Angelo says likely no bets for this fight.

Likely no bets for this fight.
"I'm going to stick with Thiago Moises. I trust the training. I trust the activity."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Gordon's losses are to tough competition in close decisions, and he thinks Gordon's takedown defense and chin hold up. He expects a close competitive decision win for Gordon.

Gordon by decision
"I like Gordon here. ... I think he wins this fight and wins it by a pretty pretty close competitive decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

The host finds this a tough puzzle but leans with Gordon's pace and pressure. He notes Moises has looked good against certain opponents but doesn't do well against guys who set the pace, and Gordon is exactly that. He expects Gordon to grind out a high pace, possibly get a late finish, but mostly win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.

Gordon by decision (possible late finish)
"I have to lean with Gordon's pace and pressure. Moises has looked very good against certain opponents, but he doesn't do well against guys that can set the pace."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

The Guru picks Jared Gordon, citing a rule of thumb that beating Thiago Moises means you're good. He thinks Gordon has been robbed in recent decisions (Bobby Green, Nazareno Malegarie) and is better than his record. He acknowledges grappling concerns from the Grant Dawson loss but believes Gordon's fundamental grappling defense is strong. He predicts Gordon wins by decision.

"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon over Thiago Moises."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Moises 1 25 of 39 64% 53 of 72 2 of 2 100% 1 0 6:36
Mitch Ramirez 0 16 of 48 33% 28 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Moises 0 4 of 6 66% 25 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:18
Mitch Ramirez 0 6 of 8 75% 17 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Thiago Moises 0 15 of 26 57% 22 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
Mitch Ramirez 0 10 of 39 25% 11 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
3 Thiago Moises 1 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Mitch Ramirez 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Moises 25 of 39 64% 10 of 23 3 of 4 12 of 12 17 of 30 2 of 2 6 of 7
Mitch Ramirez 16 of 48 33% 4 of 32 5 of 7 7 of 9 13 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Moises 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2
Mitch Ramirez 6 of 8 75% 0 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thiago Moises 15 of 26 57% 8 of 18 2 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mitch Ramirez 10 of 39 25% 4 of 30 4 of 5 2 of 4 7 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Thiago Moises 6 of 7 85% 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 5
Mitch Ramirez 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Thiago Moises vs. Mitch Ramirez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moises (-410), Ramirez (+320)

Round 1
Originally expecting to face Brad Riddell in the co-main event slot, Moises (17-7, 6-5 UFC) instead tumbles down to the early prelims to take on late replacement and UFC debutant Ramirez (8-1, 0-0 UFC), who lost in an appearance on last year’s Contender Series. The two lightweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as the fighters consider but abandon a glove touch. The two start rapping the other’s calf with kicks one after the other, testing the waters and doing some work early. They proceed to take turns with these kicks until Moises decides to mix things up with a tackling double-leg takedown. Moises succeeds in placing Ramirez on his seat, and Ramirez turns to his side in hopes of finding a sweep. Moises shuts it down and shifts to half guard, where he slowly opens up with elbow strikes. Ramirez bucks and twists, but the heavy Brazilian is not going anywhere as he proceeds to smother and land shots. Ramirez uses all his might to pop up, but Moises drags him down from behind until Ramirez realizes he should not give up his back and turns over again. Moises leans down to potentially set up an arm-triangle choke, but with half guard on the other side, he is unable to find the right leverage. Ramirez scoots himself to the wall, but Moises drags him away from it so he can hope to pass. Moises lets it go so he can slash down with elbows, and he gets bucked off but this is the best thing for him. Ramirez turns to crawl away on his knees, and like a predatory animal, Moises pounces on his back. Moises almost immediately gets the hooks in and secures a body triangle, and as Ramirez turns over to his back, Moises is already fishing for a rear-naked choke. Ramirez hand-fights well enough to prevent the choke from getting close, and Moises slides arms back and forth in search of the sub. Moises softens his man up with a couple strikes, and Ramirez tries to swing back from behind his head. The round ends in this dominant position, with the horn blaring twice.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 2
The lightweights come together in the middle of the cage, and Ramirez pushes the pace by leading off with a whipping overhand right. As Ramirez tries to shove the Brazilian against the wall, Moises turns him about. The two jockey for position while tied up, and Moises tangles up the legs for a trip attempt but does not find it. Moises drives a knee to the chest as he looks for another entry, with a double that fails. This allows Ramirez to break free, and Moises chops down on his lead leg as he gets backed off with punches. Moises reaches out with a front kick, and leans back as a head kick whizzes past his face. Ramirez swings as hard as he can with a right hand, and the veteran shoots in for a double and drives Ramirez back to the wall. The two do a little slow dance when up close in the clinch, and Moises breaks free with an elbow and misses with a front kick by a matter of inches. Ramirez punches his way forward into a clinch, and he is turned around and smacked in the face a few times. Moises lets go to reset, and he kicks the calf of his opponent that is welted and swollen badly. Ramirez kicks back, but Moises aims at the same target again to make Ramirez recoil. As he does this, he fires off a front kick and stings Ramirez with an overhand right. Moises chops low and spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the side of the head, and he calmly works his way forward, landing shots to chop away. Ramirez goes after two leg kicks of his own, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 3
Moises begins the round with a front kick, and
he knocks Ramirez off his feet with a vicious low kick. Ramirez hits the deck, and a ferocious Moises chases after him and whips four low kicks down reminiscent of Donald Cerrone against Myles Jury.
Ramirez grimaces in pain and Smith recognizes that he is done, and he waves off the fight. This is a statement performance for the Brazilian, who registers his first knockout as a UFC fighter by putting the newcomer away with leg kicks.

The Official Result
Thiago Moises def. Mitch Ramirez R3 0:15 via TKO (Leg Kicks)
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Angelo expects Moises to be a big favorite. He is a slick grappler who stays composed and works for submissions, with technical striking and solid low kicks to set up takedowns. Although Moises was taken down five times and mauled by Benoit Saint-Denis, Angelo notes that Ramirez is not on that level. He thinks Moises will win the striking exchanges and is good enough to defend takedowns or sweep off bottom. He will bet if the line is favorable.

waiting for odds; will bet if line is favorable
"Moises is the pick and if we somehow get something that even resembles a favorable line I'm probably going to go ahead and jump on him here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Big Brady picks Thiago Moises to win by second-round submission. He views this as a levels fight, with Moises' BJJ and experience being far superior to Ramirez, who is coming in on short notice. He expects Moises to get a takedown and submit Ramirez.

by second round submission
"I'm going to take Thiago Moises to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Cody picks Thiago Moises, noting his experience against top competition and superior skills everywhere. He acknowledges Ramirez's danger as a short-notice debutant but believes Moises is better on the feet and on the ground. He warns about Moises' durability but expects him to win.

"Moises is a legitimate gatekeeper to the top 15... how does Mitch Ramirez pull this thing out of his hat?"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Thiago Moises

The host notes that Ramirez is stepping in on short notice and is less skilled and experienced than Moises. He expects Moises to have the technical striking advantage and eventually open up a club-and-sub opportunity to choke out Ramirez, getting back in the win column.

"I think that will eventually open up a club and sub opportunity to choke out Ramirez and get Moes back on The Winning Side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Paul agrees, stating Moises is better everywhere and has seen every trick Ramirez might have. He notes Ramirez's Contender Series loss and lack of high-level experience. He will not bet Ramirez.

"Moises seems like the rightful favorite here I will not be betting Mitch Ramirez."
Submission R2 4:05
Submission R1 3:05
TKO (elbows and punches) R1 3:01
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joel Alvarez 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Moises 0 44 of 73 60% 44 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joel Alvarez 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Moises 0 44 of 73 60% 44 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joel Alvarez 11 of 24 45% 5 of 18 3 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Moises 44 of 73 60% 27 of 54 12 of 14 5 of 5 36 of 61 8 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joel Alvarez 11 of 24 45% 5 of 18 3 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Moises 44 of 73 60% 27 of 54 12 of 14 5 of 5 36 of 61 8 of 12 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joel Alvarez (157.5: Missed Weight) vs. Thiago Moises

Round 1
For the second fight in a row, Alvarez (18-2, 3-1 UFC) significantly missed weight ahead of his bout. While not as egregious as weighing 159.5 pounds in 2020, coming in a pound and a half heavy has cost him 30% of his purse ahead of his battle with Moises (15-5, 4-3 UFC). This 157.5-pound catchweight contest will be under the watchful eye of Marc Goddard, and Alvarez tries to make amends with a glove touch and Moises obliges him. Moises takes the center of the cage immediately, and he scores a slapping leg kick and whiffs on a huge right hand. Alvarez returns fire, but Moises stands firm and chops at his calf again. Alvarez has a left hand sneak around the guard, and he tries to check a kick. Moises winds up with a left and a massive right hand, and Alvarez wears it well but then takes a leg kick. Alvarez replies with his own chopping kick, and Moises greets him with a slap of a kick up top. Alvarez steps forward, walking Moises down and throwing high knees to great effect. Moises circles around the edge of the cage as Alvarez is stalking him while avoiding the power punches that come at him. Alvarez has his own leg kick and big right hand go around the guards, and Moises is rattled and trying to gather himself. “El Fenomeno” lets loose a phenomenal salvo of strikes that rock Moises, and Moises is still standing but taking some serious damage. Alvarez scores a big elbow, and as he continues to give chase with Moises escaping, he looses a spinning wheel kick that clatters of the guard. Sensing the end might be near, Alvarez strides forward confidently and catches a body kick to push Moises back to the fence.
Alvarez unleashes a brutal salvo of elbows up top, and when Moises shells up, Alvarez blasts the body with a ruthless barrage of blows. Moises is barely surviving as he leans on the wall, and as the assault continues, Goddard determines that Moises is no longer intelligently defending himself and saves Moises from any further damage.
Although one more victory for him is marred by his missing weight, Alvarez certainly impressed by wrecking what the UFC considered a top-15 lightweight. Alvarez also keeps his spectacular 100% finish rate intact while earning what is a rare stoppage due to strikes for the Spaniard.

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Thiago Moises R1 3:01 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Angelo picks Thiago Moises, noting he is the better technical striker and wrestler. He points out that Alvarez has no wrestling and has been taken down 100% of the time in the UFC. Angelo believes Moises can initiate takedowns and be on top, making him the safer pick.

"i like thiago moises here i like his top game i like his striking i think the odds are spot on and and he's my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Big Brady is confident in Thiago Moises, pointing out that Joel Alvarez has zero takedown defense and zero takedowns attempted in the UFC, relying on submissions from his back. Moises is a world-class grappler with a black belt, and Brady doubts Alvarez can submit him. He also notes Moises' striking has improved, as seen in his win over Alexander Hernandez.

Moises by decision
"give me a tiago moises to win give me tiago moises to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Cody emphasizes Moises' improvements and his takedown ability, noting he even took down Islam Makhachev. He points out Alvarez's 0% takedown defense and that his submissions came against lower-level opponents. He expects Moises to take Alvarez down and control him, possibly winning by decision or submission.

"i think that the pick's got to be thiago moyes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Daniel Levi picks Thiago Moises, citing his higher level of competition and experience against top lightweights. He notes that Moises has a solid shell defense and kicks, and that Alvarez has zero percent takedown defense, which Moises can exploit. Levi acknowledges Alvarez's dangerous guard but believes Moises is on a different level and will win a decision or find a submission.

"give me thiago moises by being slightly ahead"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Jacob picks Thiago Moises but warns him not to grapple with Alvarez. He believes Moises' striking is more than enough to win and that taking Alvarez down could lead to a submission. Jacob is a fan of Moises and thinks he should keep the fight standing.

"thiago do not take this guy down do not initiate a single takedown your striking is going gonna be more than enough to win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Paul thinks Moises is a more finished product with good BJJ and wrestling. He notes Alvarez has 0% takedown defense and Moises can take him down and control him. He expects Moises to win by decision or submission, but doesn't love the price.

"i think he kind of has him covered at at all angles here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Joel Alvarez

The Guru picks Joel Alvarez by unanimous decision despite Alvarez missing weight. He expects Alvarez to out-strike Moises at range with jabs and calf kicks, while defending takedowns. The Guru expresses concern about the weight miss but still favors Alvarez's striking.

unanimous decision 30-27
"alvarez missed weight again... i'm still picking him though i think i'm still picking him"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R4 2:38
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00
Submission (ankle lock) R2 0:25
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Moises 0 66 of 102 64% 115 of 160 4 of 6 66% 1 0 7:52
Kurt Holobaugh 0 39 of 115 33% 108 of 189 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Moises 0 20 of 33 60% 28 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kurt Holobaugh 0 11 of 37 29% 42 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:07
2 Thiago Moises 0 18 of 32 56% 19 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:02
Kurt Holobaugh 0 24 of 66 36% 46 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
3 Thiago Moises 0 28 of 37 75% 68 of 82 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:00
Kurt Holobaugh 0 4 of 12 33% 20 of 28 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Moises 66 of 102 64% 59 of 92 2 of 4 5 of 6 28 of 53 8 of 11 30 of 38
Kurt Holobaugh 39 of 115 33% 16 of 82 21 of 30 2 of 3 24 of 93 14 of 21 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Moises 20 of 33 60% 17 of 29 0 of 1 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 3 8 of 12
Kurt Holobaugh 11 of 37 29% 7 of 32 3 of 3 1 of 2 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thiago Moises 18 of 32 56% 17 of 29 0 of 1 1 of 2 14 of 26 3 of 5 1 of 1
Kurt Holobaugh 24 of 66 36% 6 of 39 17 of 26 1 of 1 11 of 46 13 of 20 0 of 0
3 Thiago Moises 28 of 37 75% 25 of 34 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 9 3 of 3 21 of 25
Kurt Holobaugh 4 of 12 33% 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Thiago Moises

Round 1
Lightweights Holobaugh (17-6, 1 N/C) and Moises (11-3) face off in a matchup of DWTNCS alums in need of a win. Referee Marc Goddard makes his first appearance of the evening. Holobaugh grabs a single-leg in the first 15 seconds, using it to run Moises to the fence. The Brazilian defends well, however, and Holobaugh gives it up. They return to circling. Moments later, Holobaugh goes for a single, once again on the right leg, and Moises once again defends. They disengage, and Moises surprises Holobaugh by dropping for a single-leg takedown of his own, running Holobaugh to the canvas. Holobaugh grabs a front headlock on the way down, but Moises moves to the opposite side and Holobaugh wisely lets go. Moises lands in full guard, then passes to half-guard. Holobaugh regains full guard as the “Uh! Vai morrer!” chants start up. Holobaugh goes high with his legs, and Moises postures up. The round ends with Moises still in Holobaugh’s full guard.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 2
Holobaugh lands a right low kick immediately. Moises tags him with a right hook, then throws a front kick right up the middle that touches Holobaugh’s chin. Just under a minute into the round, Moises times Holobaugh for a double-leg, getting in on his hips and driving him to the canvas easily. He scoots Holobaugh over to the fence, working in the Louisianan’s guard. Holobaugh shrimps and attempts to scramble to his feet, and manages to escape. Halfway through the round, Holobaugh clinches and hold Moises against the fence. Holobaugh lands a left hook to the head and a right to the body that get Moises’ attention. With a minute left, Moises tries to drop for a takedown, Holobaugh defends, but Moises comes across the top with a hard elbow to the temple. Right before the 10-second clapper, Holobaugh lands a three-piece combo with Moises backed up against the fence. Moises responds with a pair of level elbow strikes.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 3
Moises steps inside and hits Holobaugh with a one-two, then another combo. He drops and drives Holobaugh to the ground again. He works from half-guard as Holobaugh tries to hip escape. Moises sticks to him, staying on top and giving Holobaugh nowhere to go. Against the fence, Holobaugh scrambles out but gives up his back. Moises gets his arm under the chin, but without hooks he gives the choke up. Holobaugh reverses briefly, but Moises scrambles and ends up on top again. With under 90 seconds left, it’s been Moises all over Holobaugh all round. In the final half-minute, he flurries from top position, landing some hard shots but not doing enough to get Goddard to step in. This one will go to the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)

The Official Result
Thiago Moises def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00