UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik

Angelo trusts Volkov's fight IQ and long striking style to keep him out of danger against Rozenstruik's one-punch power. He notes Volkov's recent losses were to elite grapplers and strikers, and believes Volkov can win a technical striking match or even mix in takedowns. The only worry is a repeat of the Derrick Lewis loss, but he sides with Volkov.

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He thinks Volkov will be the clear minute winner with his volume and reach advantage, out-striking Rozenstruik over five rounds. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and that it only takes one shot, but believes Volkov's chin is good and he can avoid the knockout. He notes Volkov has looked off in recent fights (against Tybura and Aspinall) but still expects him to win. He mentions that Rozenstruik by KO at +200 is a possible prop.

Cody agrees with Paul's assessment, emphasizing Volkov's reach, output, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Rozenstruik's power and the small cage as concerns but believes Volkov's volume will be key. He picks Volkov by decision and also likes the over 3.5 rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik as the underdog, citing Volkov's decline after the Ciryl Gane fight and poor performances against Tybura and Aspinall. He notes Rozenstruik's power, counter-striking, and the small cage favoring the shorter fighter. He recommends a one-unit bet on Rozenstruik by knockout at +210, as he doubts Volkov's durability and motivation.

Paul argues that Volkov's high volume and durability should carry him to victory as long as he avoids getting knocked out. He notes that Rozenstruik is low-volume and unlikely to win a decision, and suggests Volkov by decision is a strong prop. He acknowledges the risk of Rozenstruik's power but believes Volkov's output will be decisive.

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He criticizes Rozenstruik as 'fat', 'untrustworthy', and a 'coward', noting he often hesitates and stands around. He believes Volkov's range, front kicks, and size advantage will keep Rozenstruik at bay. He mentions Volkov's underrated chin and activity, and thinks Rozenstruik will freeze up. He predicts a lackluster decision with Volkov winning the majority of rounds.

Angelo praises Movsar Evloev's wrestling and striking setups, noting his chain wrestling and takedown averages. Dan Ige is well-rounded but Angelo is confident Evloev will win via decision, as he has in his previous five UFC wins. He bet on Evloev by decision at -155.

Big Brady picks Movsar Evloev to win by decision. He thinks Evloev will implement his game plan of takedowns and control, similar to how Korean Zombie took down Ige. He notes Ige is a good striker but Evloev won't give him many opportunities on the feet. He believes Evloev is a black belt in BJJ and can stay safe on top, grinding out a decision. He sees this as a bad matchup for Ige and expects Evloev to go 16-0.

Cody provides a detailed breakdown, noting Evloev's wrestling and back-taking ability, and Ige's struggles against wrestlers. He references Ige's losses to Korean Zombie and Josh Emmett as a blueprint for Evloev. He picks Evloev by decision and plans to bet that prop.

Daniel Levi picks Movsar Evloev, viewing him as a future top-5 fighter with relentless wrestling and a strong chin, as shown in the Mike Grundy fight. He believes Dan Ige is a tough but fringe top-15 gatekeeper who will struggle with Evloev's chain wrestling and pressure. He expects a decision win for Evloev and suggests the decision prop at -175 as a parlay piece.

Paul picks Evloev but doesn't love the moneyline price. He notes Evloev's undefeated record and wrestling advantage, and suggests Evloev by decision as a better bet. He acknowledges Ige's durability and toughness but thinks Evloev's grappling will be the difference.

The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Evloev's grappling ability to take the back and maintain dominant positions, similar to what Korean Zombie did to Ige. He worries about Evloev's chin but believes Ige lacks the power to finish. He expects Evloev to win the first two rounds via grappling, with Ige possibly taking the third. He notes featherweight fights rarely end in finishes.

Angelo sees Michael Trizano as a fun pressure striker with power and fight IQ, who beats brawling strikers. Lucas Almeida is a powerful striker who headhunts and is not technical. Angelo likes Trizano in this matchup but doesn't love the -250 odds.

Big Brady picks Michael Trizano to win by decision. He thinks Trizano is more experienced and has fought better competition, and should weather Almeida's early storm. He notes Almeida has 100% finish rate and power, but Trizano has never been knocked out and has good takedown defense and cardio. He expects Trizano to take over in rounds 2 and 3 and win a decision, but is not confident due to Trizano's tendency to be in close fights.

Cody is uncertain, noting Almeida's cardio issues in his contender series fight and Trizano's takedown defense problems. He thinks Almeida might win the first round but Trizano could take over later. He says he'll wait for weigh-ins and jokingly checks Trizano's hairstyle for confidence.

Daniel Levi leans toward Lucas Almeida as a plus-money underdog, arguing that Trizano's price is inflated and that Almeida has knockout power and durability. He notes that Trizano often wins close decisions and that Almeida's wild style could land a fight-ending shot. He recommends a one-unit bet on Almeida at +200, as he sees value in the dog.

Paul picks Trizano but expresses hesitation, noting Almeida's wild style and potential cardio issues. He thinks Trizano's experience and veteran savvy will allow him to win a decision or late finish, but he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida to win by rear-naked choke. He calls Almeida a 'finishing machine' with a 100% finish rate. He notes Trizano has been submitted before and is coming off a beating. He believes Almeida's wild style and momentum will overwhelm Trizano, and he sees Almeida as a good underdog pick on the card.

Angelo describes Karine Silva as a powerful grappler who constantly works for submissions, with all 14 wins by stoppage. Poliana Botelho is a creative striker but with poor fight IQ. Angelo believes Silva will take Botelho down and control her, similar to how Gillian Robertson won. He already placed a moneyline bet on Silva at -115.

Big Brady picks Karine Silva to win by first-round submission. He notes Silva has a 100% finish rate and is very dangerous on the ground with submissions like heel hooks and armbars. He points out that Botelho has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers like Calvillo and Robertson, and thinks Silva will get her to the mat and finish her. He warns that if the fight goes past the first round, Botelho could win due to Silva's cardio issues, but expects an early finish.

Cody provides a detailed analysis, highlighting Botelho's cardio and size issues, and Silva's composed performance against Qiu Yuyan. He believes Silva's striking, wrestling, and grappling are superior, and that she will win via decision or submission.

Daniel Levi picks Karine Silva, believing the line is too short and that Silva's aggression and finishing ability will overwhelm Botelho, who has a history of gassing. He compares Silva to Melissa Gatto and thinks she will get a finish, making the current price a value. He plans to bet Silva straight moneyline, not in a parlay.

Paul picks Silva, citing her size, strength, and recent improvements. He notes Botelho's struggles at flyweight and her lack of striking combinations. He thinks Silva can win on the feet or via grappling and likes the price.

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva to win by submission in the first or second round. He notes Silva's good wins on the contender series and her momentum. He criticizes Botelho's recent losses and believes Silva's grappling and aggression will be decisive. He makes crude remarks about Silva's appearance but ultimately trusts her skills.

Angelo notes Ode' Osbourne is a southpaw with power and finishing ability, and has grappling as a backup. Zarrukh Adashev is a kickboxer with almost no ground game. Despite Osbourne looking slow in his last fight, Angelo believes Adashev is not the technical striker to exploit that, so Osbourne's power and grappling should secure the win.

Big Brady picks Ode' Osbourne to win by first-round submission. He notes Osbourne's massive size and reach advantage (7-inch reach advantage) over Adashev, and thinks Osbourne can take the fight to the mat and submit him. He mentions Osbourne's good ground game and submissions off his back, while Adashev is a kickboxer with a submission loss. He expects Osbourne to grapple and finish early, though he notes Osbourne doesn't always go for takedowns as much as he'd like.

Cody is uncertain, noting Osbourne's cardio issues and Adashev's one-dimensional striking. He thinks Osbourne's speed and reach should win, but he's not confident and likely won't bet.

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his size, reach, and improving skills. He notes that Adashev, despite a deceiving record, is smaller and likely outmatched. He believes Osbourne has multiple win conditions and sees the -185 price as reasonable, though he expects the line to move further. He picks Osbourne to win, possibly by finish.

Paul picks Osbourne but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Osbourne's reach advantage and speed, but worries about his cardio and tendency to fade. He thinks Osbourne will win the first two rounds and survive the third.

The MMA Guru picks Ode' Osbourne to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Osbourne's massive eight-inch reach advantage and believes he will keep Adashev at range. He compares the matchup to Adashev's loss to Sumudaerji, where he was picked apart. He expects Osbourne to win the first two rounds clearly, with Adashev possibly having success in the third via calf kicks.

Angelo highlights Menifield's power, takedown defense, and improved cardio. Askar Mozharov is an athletic striker with power but questionable takedown defense and a dramatic size increase that raises suspicion. Angelo initially leaned Mozharov but switched to Menifield due to UFC experience and unknowns about Mozharov. He also bets on the fight not going the distance.

Big Brady picks Alonzo Menifield to win by first-round TKO or submission. He notes that Mozharov is a 'killer be killed' type who has never gone to decision and quits when faced with resistance. He thinks Menifield has a huge step up in competition and can take Mozharov down, land ground and pound, and make him quit. He warns that if Menifield stands and trades, Mozharov has knockout power, but expects Menifield to grapple and finish early.

Cody agrees, noting Mozharov's suspicious record and lack of heart. He thinks Menifield will win by early knockout or TKO, but acknowledges Menifield's own cardio issues. He picks Menifield and expects a finish.

Daniel Levi picks Alonzo Menifield, acknowledging Mozharov's padded record and questionable chin. He notes that Menifield has UFC experience and physical advantages, but warns that Mozharov still has knockout power early. He believes Menifield should be a much heavier favorite and recommends betting him, though he admits to PTSD from past Menifield bets.

Paul is very confident in Menifield, calling Mozharov a fraud with poor cardio and a history of quitting. He notes Menifield's power and wrestling advantage, and expects an early finish. He recommends betting Menifield and the under 1.5 rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Alonzo Menifield to win by first-round KO. He notes Mozharov has been finished many times, is scrappy and aggressive, and has been out for over a year. He believes Menifield's explosiveness will be too much and that Mozharov's style plays into Menifield's hands. He predicts a big punch KO in the first round.

Angelo calls this a coin flip fight with too many variables. He notes Karolina is the better fighter but looks like a shell of herself, while Felice is scrappy and well-rounded. He reluctantly picks Felice because he believes she still has passion, but advises not to bet on this fight.

Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz to win by a very close decision. He thinks the fight will play out like their first fight, with Kowalkiewicz stuffing takedowns and out-striking Herrig. However, he is very hesitant because both fighters are on long losing streaks and he questions Kowalkiewicz's mindset after five straight losses. He calls it a 'complete mess' and an 'unbeatable fight' from a betting perspective.

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, arguing that her losses came against elite competition while Herrig has been inactive. He notes Herrig's takedown-dependent style and thinks Kowalkiewicz can stuff takedowns and win on volume. He is hesitant due to both fighters' age and recent form.

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz as a slight underdog, noting she won their first fight and that both fighters are past their prime. He mentions Herrig's long layoff and focus on OnlyFans, while Kowalkiewicz has health issues. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight and advises against betting, but leans toward Kowalkiewicz for the pick.

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her superior striking and takedown defense from their first fight. He acknowledges both fighters are washed but believes Kowalkiewicz's activity and training at ATT give her an edge. He is not confident due to women's MMA volatility.

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz but with clear disdain and low confidence. He calls the fight a 'sympathy bout' and questions why it's on the card. He notes Kowalkiewicz has good grappling defense and is scrappy, and she won the first fight, so he expects her to win again. However, he admits 'who knows' and seems to care little about the outcome.

Angelo calls this a very close fight. Joe Solecki is a grappler with clean boxing but lost to more technical strikers. Alex da Silva is a slick striker with power and good wrestling. Angelo notes the odds favor Solecki at -165 but thinks da Silva may have the edge in power and willingness to wrestle first. He is torn but leans da Silva, and considers a +3.5 round buy bet.

Big Brady picks Alex da Silva Coelho to win by decision as an underdog. He thinks da Silva is the better striker and well-rounded, but his main concern is cardio, as da Silva has faded in past fights. He is hoping da Silva has improved his gas tank during his 20-month layoff. He notes that Solecki is a BJJ black belt but da Silva has good grappling and wrestling. He believes da Silva can win the first two rounds and possibly hold on for a decision, but is not overly confident.

Cody picks Solecki, noting his BJJ black belt and wrestling. He thinks da Silva's cardio issues will be exploited and Solecki will take his back. He is confident in Solecki's grappling advantage.

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing his consistent grappling and fight IQ. He acknowledges Alex da Silva's talent but notes his cardio issues and mental lapses. He sees Solecki as the safer pick but does not see value at -170, so he will not bet it. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

Paul picks Solecki, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes da Silva's tendency to gas and thinks Solecki will take his back and submit him or win a decision. He likes the price and expects Solecki to find a submission in the later rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, though his analysis is brief and somewhat incoherent due to illness. He states he doesn't see Alex da Silva Coelho out-grappling Solecki and references Coelho's loss to Yakovlev. He calls Solecki a 'good grappler' and implies he will win, but does not provide a specific method or round.

Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.

Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.

Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.

Paul picks Jackson, citing his experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes Argueta's short notice, weight class move, and recent five-round war. He thinks Jackson's grappling and striking are superior and expects a finish or dominant decision.

Angelo praises Benoît Saint Denis's wrestling and top pressure, but worries about how hittable he is. Niklas Stolze is a solid striker with a kickboxing background but has struggled in the UFC. Angelo thinks Saint Denis will grind out a win similar to Ramazan Emeev's approach, but cautions that if Saint Denis gets hit too much, he could be knocked out.

Big Brady picks Niklas Stolze to win by decision as an underdog. He is not sold on Benoît Saint Denis, who he thinks is very green and makes too many mistakes on the mat despite being a solid grappler. He believes Stolze is the better striker and more experienced, and that Saint Denis's submission-over-position style won't work at UFC level. He notes Stolze's loss to Jared Gooden was a KO, but he showed good moments against Ramazanov. He is not confident and plans to stay away from betting this fight.

Cody is uncertain but leans toward Stolze, noting Saint Denis' poor wrestling and striking defense. He thinks Stolze's grappling and speed could be enough, but acknowledges both fighters have unknowns. He is not confident.

Daniel Levi picks Niklas Stolze as the underdog, arguing that Saint Denis's best quality is taking punishment, which is not a reason to lay chalk. He believes Stolze has better technique and can win, though he acknowledges Saint Denis's toughness. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and will not bet it.

Paul picks Stolze as an underdog, citing Saint Denis' defensive liabilities and questionable chin. He notes Stolze's faster hands and better technique, and thinks he can find a finish or win a decision. He is not highly confident but sees value.

The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by submission in the first round, specifically an arm triangle or D'Arce choke. He notes Stolze has a chin issue and has been finished often. He believes Saint Denis has a grappling advantage and is tougher on the feet. He references Stolze being submitted by Yakovlev and suggests Saint Denis will out-grapple him.

Angelo highlights Tony Gravely's relentless wrestling and high takedown average, but notes his questionable submission defense and cardio issues. Johnny Muñoz is a BJJ black belt with slick grappling. Angelo is split because five of Gravely's losses are by submission and seven of Muñoz's wins are by submission. He ultimately picks Gravely because he believes Gravely will dictate the fight with top control, but acknowledges the risk of getting caught.

Big Brady picks Johnny Muñoz Jr. as an underdog to win by submission, likely in the third round. He notes that while Gravely is a relentless wrestler, Muñoz is a black belt in BJJ who wants the fight on the mat. He compares it to the Bartosz-Swabinski vs. Gerald Meerschaert fight where the wrestler took down the grappler and got submitted. He thinks Gravely will get takedowns but Muñoz will capitalize on submission opportunities, especially as Gravely slows down. He also mentions Muñoz's size advantage.

Cody picks Gravely, noting his athleticism and wrestling. He thinks Muñoz's striking is poor and Gravely can win on the feet or via takedowns. He is confident but expects to sweat due to Gravely's past mistakes.

Daniel Levi picks Tony Gravely, acknowledging the submission threat from Muñoz but believing Gravely is the better fighter overall. He expects Gravely to win a decision if he avoids mistakes, but admits Muñoz has a clear path via submission. He will not bet the fight but may take small shots on Muñoz submission props.

Paul picks Gravely, citing his wrestling and striking advantage. He notes Muñoz's lack of striking and inactivity. He thinks Gravely can win via sprawl-and-brawl or wrestling, but acknowledges Gravely's tendency to make mistakes.

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely by 30-27 unanimous decision. He criticizes Muñoz's padded resume and notes that Gravely performed better than Muñoz against common opponent Nate Maness, nearly finishing him. He believes Gravely has superior striking and scrambling, and will mix up takedowns to dominate. He expects Muñoz to have some submission attempts but Gravely to escape.

Angelo describes Jeff Molina as a good striker with volume and kicks, while Zhalgas Zhumagulov is tough with power and chain wrestling. He notes Molina has been taken down multiple times but still won those fights. He leans Molina but warns about Molina's kicks being caught, which could lead to a Zhumagulov decision win.

Big Brady picks Jeff Molina to win by decision. He likes Molina's volume striking (over 8 significant strikes per minute) and well-rounded game, and thinks Molina will outwork Zhumagulov on the feet. He notes that Zhumagulov is a good fighter but has not had success with takedowns in the UFC, and even if he gets them down, Molina is good at getting back up. He expects the fight to stay standing and Molina's volume to be the difference.

Cody picks Molina but is uneasy, noting Molina's volume and potential but also his untested competition. He thinks Molina's future is bright but this fight could be competitive. He is not confident enough to bet heavily.

Daniel Levi leans toward Jeff Molina, citing his high volume and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's ability to make fights close and his experience, but believes Molina's output and takedown defense will be key. He will not lay -185, preferring to watch or take the dog.

Paul picks Zhumagulov as an underdog, citing his experience against tougher competition. He notes Molina's hype may be premature and that Zhumagulov has faced better fighters. He thinks it will be a close decision and sees value in the dog.

The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Molina's height and reach advantage, good takedown defense, and improving skills. He expects Molina to win the first round via grappling, then pick up the pace on the feet in the last two rounds. He doesn't see Zhumagulov bullying Molina and thinks Molina will land kicks and punches at range.

Angelo notes that Andreas Michailidis is a decent striker with power but leaves openings, while Rinat Fakhretdinov is a wrestler with heavy hands making his UFC debut. He acknowledges Fakhretdinov's poor wrestling technique but says it works in fights. He worries about the -321 odds for a debutant but still picks Fakhretdinov to get the takedown and pound away.

Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by late finish, specifically a third-round submission or ground-and-pound. He notes that Fakhretdinov is a solid grappler with good cardio and ground game, while Michailidis is talented but has terrible cardio and tends to fade after the first round. He expects Fakhretdinov to take the fight to the mat and wear Michailidis down, eventually finishing him. He is not betting this fight due to the -260 price but likes the pick.

Cody is uncertain but leans toward Michailidis, noting Fakhretdinov's questionable competition and Michailidis' size at 170. He thinks the line is too wide and may take the dog, but is not confident.

Daniel Levi picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, noting Michailidis's history of being finished and his cardio issues. He believes Fakhretdinov has the power and pressure to get the job done, especially with his training at American Top Team. He recommends the inside distance prop at -110 as a better bet than the moneyline.

Paul picks Michailidis as an underdog, arguing that Fakhretdinov's record is padded with cans and he lacks wrestling. He notes Michailidis' size advantage at 170 and thinks the price is too wide. He is not highly confident but sees value.

The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by first-round KO. He notes Fakhretdinov has stepped up against decent competition recently, with first-round finishes over Eric Spicely and Alberto Uda. He worries about early career padding but trusts his recent performances. He sees Michailidis as vulnerable, having been finished in four of five losses, and believes Fakhretdinov's power and grappling will be too much. He predicts a first-round KO.

Angelo sees Erin Blanchfield as a nasty grappler with dominant wrestling, and believes her path to victory is through grappling. He notes that JJ Aldrich is a decision machine with decent striking but a negative striking differential, and that the experience gap is not wide enough to matter. He expects Blanchfield to dominate with heavy grappling and may place a moneyline bet depending on the line movement.

Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He notes that Blanchfield is a huge favorite at -600 but thinks the line is too high, though he still sees her as one of the safer picks on the card. He expects Blanchfield to take Aldrich down repeatedly and control the fight on the mat, grinding out a dominant decision. He acknowledges Aldrich has good takedown defense but believes Blanchfield's relentless wrestling will be too much.

Cody picks Blanchfield, calling her a real prospect. He notes her wrestling and pressure, and thinks Aldrich's takedown defense has not been tested by a wrestler of Blanchfield's caliber. He expects Blanchfield to win by decision.

Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield, praising her jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and youth. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich's experience but believes Blanchfield's skills will prevail. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation due to the steep price, but picks Blanchfield to win, likely by decision.

Paul picks Blanchfield and has already bet Blanchfield by decision at -138. He notes Blanchfield's relentless grappling and pressure, and Aldrich's durability. He thinks Blanchfield will secure takedowns and grind out a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield despite acknowledging JJ Aldrich as a decent underdog. He worries Aldrich might stuff takedowns but notes that Miranda Maverick, who he considers equal or better than Aldrich, couldn't stop Blanchfield's grappling. He expects Blanchfield to dominate on the ground and win by unanimous decision 30-27. However, he strongly dislikes the odds, calling them 'really annoying' and implying they are too wide for his comfort.