Dan Argueta

Angelo is torn on this fight, initially leaning toward Daniel Argueta due to his wrestling and game plan, but he worries that Cody Haddon's scramble skills could frustrate Argueta. He ultimately leans toward Haddon as the prospect, but admits he is not confident and will not bet on this fight. He notes that Argueta is a good dog but doesn't trust him to win.

Big Brady picks Daniel Argueta as an underdog at +155, expecting a close fight that goes to decision. He acknowledges Cody Haddon is a good fighter with crisp striking and a BJJ black belt, but sees Argueta's path to victory through wrestling, as Argueta lands nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes. He notes Haddon's long flight from Australia and Argueta's superior competition. He worries about corrupt judges favoring control over damage, so he prefers the plus money.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Haddon's only UFC win was against a poor athlete, and now he faces a much better athlete in Argueta. He points out that Argueta is a brute force fighter who crashes into opponents, and Haddon may struggle with the pressure. Connor thinks the winner will be the one who comes forward.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

Daniel is impressed by Haddon's Contender Series performance and his well-rounded skills. He notes Argueta's strength in grappling but poor standup and cardio. Daniel thinks Haddon's pace and versatility will be the difference, but he is not confident enough to lay the price due to Haddon's UFC debut and potential jet lag.

Argueta is a wrestler who chains his takedown attempts together and has a great gas tank for 15 minutes. Haddon has not faced a grapple-heavy approach like Argueta's. If Argueta can avoid Haddon's striking and slick BJJ, he should keep Haddon on the defensive and win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Cody Haddon, praising his talent and potential. He references Haddon's close fight with Steve Erceg, noting his scrambling ability, and his impressive win over Billy Brand on the Contender Series. He criticizes Daniel Argueta for lacking finishing potential and stalling against the cage, and notes that Haddon has great scrambles to counter Argueta's grappling.

Zane picks Argueta for his raw physicality, comparing him to a wrecking ball. He notes that Argueta overwhelms opponents with athleticism, as seen against Ronnie Lawrence and Nikki Ure. Zane thinks Haddon's lack of athleticism and slow foot speed will be a problem, especially if he gets pressured. He believes Argueta's constant aggression will be too much.

Angelo picks Dan Argueta despite the line movement making him a big underdog. He believes Argueta's pressure and wrestling will be too much for Jean Matsumoto, who is a Contender Series prospect. He notes that Matsumoto beat a wrestler on Contender Series but thinks Argueta is a different animal. He mentions that Argueta's pressure is bigger and better than anything Matsumoto has seen, and that Matsumoto will have to defend every takedown. Angelo is watching the line movement and may bet Argueta if the odds get better.

Big Brady picks Dan Argueta as a live dog, noting that Matsumoto has a tendency to play off his back too much and can be taken down. While Matsumoto is the better striker, Argueta has the wrestling to get the fight to the mat and potentially win two out of three rounds. Brady sees a grinding decision win for Argueta.

Cody also picks Matsumoto, noting Argueta's inconsistency and tendency to gas. He thinks Argueta will get takedowns early, but Matsumoto's submission threat off his back and striking advantage will allow him to take over late. Cody is wary of Argueta's power wrestling but believes Matsumoto's youth and skill will prevail.

Daniel Vreeland leans slightly toward Jean Matsumoto, citing his upside and striking combinations. He acknowledges Dan Argueta's wrestling and physicality will likely win the first round, but questions Argueta's cardio if he expends too much energy early. Vreeland believes if Matsumoto can survive the early grappling, he can pick Argueta apart on the feet in later rounds and edge out a decision.

Matsumoto is a bright prospect with great all-around skills, especially striking. He has solid defensive grappling and should be able to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet. His combination striking and leg kicks will damage Argueta, who relies on wrestling but lacks striking. Matsumoto wins by decision.

Paul picks Matsumoto but is hesitant. He likes Matsumoto's striking and BJJ, but notes Argueta is a strong wrestler early. Paul thinks if Argueta doesn't get the takedown early or gasses, Matsumoto will take over. He sees Matsumoto as a future contender but acknowledges Argueta's early danger.

Angelo trusts Argueta's wrestling-first game plan and believes Johns' takedown defense is inflated because he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. He expects Argueta to stay on the hips and outwork Johns. Pretty confident pick.

Big Brady picks Miles Johns as an underdog, calling the fight close and likely to go to decision. He likes Johns' defensive wrestling and striking defense, and notes Johns has power and out-lands opponents despite low volume. He thinks Argueta may have wrestling success later as Johns slows down, but believes Johns can win at least two rounds. He prefers the plus money.

Cody picks Dan Argueta, impressed by his toughness and grappling. He notes Argueta's strong wrestling and submission threats, while Johns has cardio issues and slows down. He believes Argueta's pressure and pace will overwhelm Johns in later rounds.

Daniel picks Argueta but without strong conviction. He thinks Johns has been a letdown in the UFC, with low output and a tendency to break under pressure. He questions whether Argueta can push the pace needed to break Johns, but believes Argueta's hunger and takedown volume might be enough. He acknowledges the line is close to accurate and is not betting it.

Lucrative James likes Miles Johns at the line, calling it an overcorrection. He thinks Johns can defend takedowns early and has power on the feet. He notes Johns is a good wrestler himself and could get takedowns. He sees the fight as close, possibly a pick'em, but favors Johns.

The host picks Argueta at minus 170, calling it a gift line. He praises Argueta's wrestling, cardio, and pressure, expecting him to wear on Johns and pull away late. He notes Johns' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Argueta is superior in grappling and pace. He predicts a decision win for Argueta after a close first round.

Paul picks Argueta but prefers live betting. He worries about Argueta's low volume and Johns's 92% takedown defense. He thinks Johns may win early rounds but Argueta's cardio advantage could take over. He is interested in Argueta by submission or round 3 prop.

Angelo picks Dan Argueta as a low confidence underdog. He notes that Ronnie Lawrence is a great offensive wrestler but struggled when pressured in his last fight. Argueta's forward pressure and wrestling could cause similar issues. Angelo likes the plus 135 moneyline but hasn't bet yet, saying he's keeping an eye on it.

Big Brady picks Ronnie Lawrence to win by decision. He is high on Lawrence, praising his relentless wrestling, cardio, and underrated striking. Lawrence averages 7 takedowns per 15 minutes with 77% accuracy. Argueta is also a wrestler, but Brady thinks Lawrence's relentless pace will be too much. He notes that Lawrence can attempt 20+ takedowns if needed. He disagrees with the initial -550 opener for Lawrence, saying -155 is about right, but still expects Lawrence to win a decision.

Cody picks Lawrence, noting that despite his poor takedown performance against Said Khamzatov, he got up nine times and learned from the experience. He thinks Lawrence is a talented striker with good footwork and speed, and that Argueta's takedown defense is not great and his volume is low. Cody believes Lawrence can stuff takedowns and win on the feet.

Connor picks Argueta, arguing that Lawrence is not a strong athlete and will struggle with Argueta's strength and wrestling. He notes that Argueta is a featherweight cutting down and will be able to spend time on top. Connor believes Lawrence will give up tie-ups and Argueta will end up in dominant positions. He expects Argueta to grind out a decision or get a late finish.

Daniel Levi picks Ronnie Lawrence, citing his significant striking edge and power. He notes Argueta's poor striking defense and cardio issues. He acknowledges Lawrence's bad loss to Saydokub but attributes it to a broken nose and tough opponent. He got Lawrence at -150 and thinks he wins at a decent clip, though weight cut concerns exist.

Argueta has superior technical wrestling compared to Lawrence, who is more of a pace-based wrestler. Lawrence's takedown-heavy style may not work against a better wrestler like Argueta. Argueta can get top position and grind out a decision. The plus 155 underdog line offers value.

Paul is tempted by Argueta at plus money, noting that Lawrence has been rocked before and that Argueta is a strong grappler with low center of gravity. He thinks this fight is best approached live, as the first wrestling exchanges will reveal a lot. He picks Argueta for the show but is not confident pre-fight.

The MMA Guru picks Ronnie Lawrence, stating a massive talent difference. He argues Lawrence should not have been cut from the UFC after a close loss to Said Nurmagomedov, and that Dan Argueta lacks the power to trouble Lawrence. He praises Lawrence's transitions and scrambling, expecting him to be too much for Argueta's simple style.

Angelo picks Argueta, believing his wrestling will be too much for the short-notice debutant. He notes Aguirre's opponents had poor records and he hasn't faced a wrestler like Argueta. He thinks Argueta's takedowns and pressure will lead to a finish. He has a small bet on the under 2.5 rounds.

Big Brady picks Isaac Dulgarian (incorrectly named as 'Isaac dogarion' in transcript) as an upset, liking his wrestling, submission game, and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Dulgarian has faced weak competition and hasn't seen the second round, but believes his skills will translate. He points out that Argueta has been taken down easily by wrestlers like Damon Jackson and Diego Silva, and that Dulgarian should be able to control him on the mat. He predicts a first-round finish for Dulgarian.

Cody leans towards Aguirre as a live underdog, citing Argueta's poor get-up game and Aguirre's BJJ. He thinks the line is off and Aguirre could win if he gets takedowns. However, he admits uncertainty and is not betting heavily.

Connor picks Argueta as well, citing the short notice replacement and Argueta's experience. He notes that Argueta is a good pocket puncher but has a monofocus, and that the fight could be ugly if Aguirre can't get takedowns. Connor seems less confident than Zane, but still leans Argueta.

Jacob agrees Argueta should win, calling it a good matchup. He notes Aguirre is a slightly better striker but Argueta's wrestling is superior. He thinks Argueta's game plan remains the same and he should control the fight. He likes the under 2.5 value.

Paul picks Argueta but is not confident due to the steep price. He notes Argueta's strength and wrestling, but acknowledges Aguirre is unproven. He is not betting this fight.

Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.

Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.

Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.