Tony Gravely vs Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Victor Henry	0	154 of 244	63%	190 of 281	0 of 0	---	2	1	1:20
Tony Gravely	0	75 of 154	48%	90 of 169	3 of 17	17%	0	0	3:22

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Victor Henry	0	29 of 53	54%	41 of 65	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:01
Tony Gravely	0	22 of 42	52%	25 of 45	1 of 7	14%	0	0	1:33
2	Victor Henry	0	71 of 107	66%	90 of 127	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:55
Tony Gravely	0	17 of 37	45%	18 of 38	2 of 6	33%	0	0	1:26
3	Victor Henry	0	54 of 84	64%	59 of 89	0 of 0	---	2	1	0:24
Tony Gravely	0	36 of 75	48%	47 of 86	0 of 4	0%	0	0	0:23

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Victor Henry	154 of 244	63%	92 of 176	55 of 60	7 of 8	102 of 183	46 of 55	6 of 6
Tony Gravely	75 of 154	48%	44 of 113	20 of 29	11 of 12	52 of 127	18 of 22	5 of 5

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Victor Henry	29 of 53	54%	11 of 35	14 of 14	4 of 4	22 of 44	7 of 9	0 of 0
Tony Gravely	22 of 42	52%	9 of 24	5 of 9	8 of 9	17 of 36	5 of 6	0 of 0
2	Victor Henry	71 of 107	66%	42 of 76	28 of 30	1 of 1	45 of 74	20 of 27	6 of 6
Tony Gravely	17 of 37	45%	14 of 31	2 of 5	1 of 1	12 of 30	4 of 6	1 of 1
3	Victor Henry	54 of 84	64%	39 of 65	13 of 16	2 of 3	35 of 65	19 of 19	0 of 0
Tony Gravely	36 of 75	48%	21 of 58	13 of 15	2 of 2	23 of 61	9 of 10	4 of 4

Tony Gravely vs. Victor Henry
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Henry (-140), Gravely (+120)

Round 1
Well-traveled bantamweights Henry (22-6, 1-1 UFC) and Gravely (23-8, 4-3 UFC) come to blows in the next fight on the prelims. Referee Mark Smith laces his running shoes, as this one could take place anywhere and everywhere over the next three rounds if needed. There is a clap of hands to initiate the matchup, and Gravely leads the dance with a body kick. As their legs collide, a foot may have grazed the cup as Smith warns the fighters to stay careful. Gravely steps back and boots Henry in the lower leg as Henry is kicking higher, sweeping Henry off his feet and dumping him to the mat, Thai style. Henry climbs back up, and Gravely tries to do the same again. Henry gathers himself and walks forward with jabs, backing the shorter man up but not able to stop the inside calf kicks from popping him. Henry doubles up on a jab and kicks the side, and he catches Gravely coming in with a straight right hand. Henry connects with a front kick to the chest, and he has a lower body kick graze off the cup to elicit a warning but not draw a stoppage. Henry shucks off a possible level change and lets loose a head kick, and the two up close sling punches and kicks without budging. They break apart, and proceed to trade leather one after the other. Gravely pushes the pace in pursuit of a takedown, and he jams Henry back to the wall. Gravely works the body with knees while pressing on his opponent, and Henry breaks off and takes the center of the cage. Gravely scores two punches including a sharp uppercut, and Henry changes things up to blast the body with a side kick. Gravely pulls back on a low kick try, and Henry decides to follow through with his own, and he chains that kick into a few punches including an uppercut that splits the guard. Gravely sits down on a right hand that just misses, and a left that does connect as Henry tries to shoulder roll. Gravely crashes the pocket with a double, tripping Henry out and putting him on his seat for a second. “La Mangosta” powers back up thanks to the wall behind him, and Gravely circles around to take his back standing and slide a hook in for a trip. Gravely elects to lift Henry up in the air and drop him back down, and Henry springs back up. The two tumble to the mat as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 2
The bantamweights slap hands to get things started again, and they immediately engage recklessly and wildly. Henry lets off a few kicks, Gravely slings leather, and as Gravely takes a few punches, he changes levels and hits the deck on his face. Henry lets him back up and lays into him with a few punches, forcing Gravely to shoot in for an ill-advised takedown. Henry threatens with a front choke, and he lets it go to allow Gravely to stand up, so that he can continue working Gravely over. Henry slips punches and moves, frustrating Gravely and landing flush while Gravely responds hitting little more but air. Henry gets caught with an overhand right, but he grits his teeth and throws back with a vengeance. As Gravely gets teed off on, he looks to tie Henry up and take the fight down. Henry pushes him back and gets away with glove grabs to keep Gravely pinned to the wire. As Gravely looks to explode, Henry slashes with an elbow and chains a few punches together. Gravely leaps forward to take the fight down, and he successfully puts Henry on the floor. Henry tries to burst upright, and he manages to work his way up walking off the cage. Henry spins around, rips a knee to the body and makes Gravely back off. Henry continues assaulting Gravely’s body as Gravely backs off, and he strings punches and elbows together as he has Gravely on the ropes. Henry pounds knees to the body, and one makes Gravely drop down for a failed takedown entry. Henry’s pace is sky-high as he batters Gravely with everything and the kitchen sink, driving Gravely back to the wall. Gravely slows him down by clinching up and dropping down for a double, and Henry intercepts him with a barrage of elbows to the side of the head. The angle is very close, and Smith is watching closely to make sure the elbow strikes are legal, and Gravely drops to his knees from the damage. Gravely musters whatever energy he has to force Henry to the mat, but they land in a 50-50 position. Henry climbs right back up and knees Gravely repeatedly in the midsection. Gravely pushes off and aims a body kick, and Henry backs him off and continues striking until the bell and Smith’s intervention as the round has ended.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the middle to high five, and they pick up immediately where they left off. Gravely has a bit more space to throw hands back, but Henry’s pace drives him back to the wall and draws a takedown from Gravely. Gravely abandons it and throws hands with his opponent, and Henry welcomes this type of technical slugfest. Gravely drops down to his knees for another takedown effort, and Henry’s defense is immaculate as he keeps himself upright. Henry breaks off and takes a kick to his ribs, as Gravely unloads with a series of punches including a solid right hand that chin-checks Henry. “La Mangosta” does not bat an eye as he continues to throw caution to the wind, trading fists with his opponent and staying active with head movement. Gravely swings and misses with high-arcing strikes that Henry dodges, and Henry intercepts a takedown with a calf kick and a few knees to the dome. Gravely releases the grip and throws haymakers, and Henry staggers him with a few right back. Fighting in a phone booth, they trade ferocious leather one after the other, and strike totals are likely to be quite high at the fight’s conclusion. Henry backs off to measure a body kick, and Gravely throws hammers while Henry marks him up with a consistent and accurate salvo of blows. Henry connects with a few more strikes until he decides to go after a single, but this might be to catch his breath and not because he wants to change levels. Gravely belts him with a few looping shots, and as he moves down for a takedown, Henry drops down to hit the ground in pursuit of a leglock. Henry attacks a heel hook, and he bails on it to grab hold of a kneebar. Gravely defends with several solid punches to the body, and he slides his knee to a safer place and continues to beat on Henry. Henry loses the grip, and Gravely drops down on top of him to grab hold of an arm-triangle choke. Henry explodes upright, taking the back of his opponent but letting it go so they can keep trading. Henry knees him in the body as they are close up, and the wild fight comes to an end with the two tied up. The first and third rounds could be close on the scorecards, so this one might go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry (30-27 Henry)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gravely (29-28 Henry)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gravely (29-28 Henry)

The Official Result
Victor Henry def. Tony Gravely via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Angelo leans toward Tony Gravely because of his wrestling and power, but acknowledges uncertainty about Victor Henry's takedown defense. He notes that if Henry's defense holds up like it did against Hani Barcelos, he could win dominantly, but if he performs as he did against Assunção, Gravely will take him down. He suggests a live bet if Gravely gets an early takedown.

live bet suggestion; takedown prop bets mentioned

"I'm gonna lead Gravely here right because we know what he will do... he's gonna have power in his hands and he's gonna just start blasting takedown so Gravely is going to be the the pick here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Big Brady slightly leans Victor Henry in a close fight. He notes Henry's takedown defense is very good and his get-up game is incredible, which will be a problem for Gravely who tends to slow down. Brady thinks Henry will keep the fight on the feet for a good chunk, using volume and cardio to outwork Gravely, but he has low confidence and expects a close decision.

"I do slightly lean with Victor Henry the way I see it playing out is you know Gravely going for takedowns the majority of them getting stuffed"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Cody picks Henry, emphasizing his experience and wrestling defense. He thinks Henry can survive Gravely's early wrestling and take over in later rounds. He likes Henry by decision at +210.

Henry by decision +210

"I will take Victor Henry I'll take Victor Henry by decision"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Connor picks Henry confidently, noting that Henry is a builder who constantly increases pressure and output, while Gravely is a starter who fades. He compares it to the Bosch-Rott fight, where Gravely struggled with a similar style. Henry's length, jab, and ability to find openings should lead to a clear decision or late finish.

Henry -140, Gravely +120 to +125. Connor thinks Henry deserves to be a bigger favorite.

"Hard not to pick Victor Henry here. ... That loss was a reminder of how good a sense out is not a check on how good Victor Henry is."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Victor Henry

I believe Henry's forward pressure, volume, and ability to work back to his feet will overwhelm Gravely. Gravely relies on wrestling, but Henry has good takedown defense and an active guard. Henry's striking output will break Gravely down as the fight goes on. I expect Henry to win by decision, with a possible late finish.

"I am going to think or say that he wins this by decision just off of uh inevitable takedown defense which will start to get better as fight the fight starts to go on"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Paul picks Henry, citing his volume and ability to outwork Gravely, who tends to fade after the first round. He likes the over 63.5 significant strikes prop for Henry on Prize Picks.

Henry over 63.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks

"I'll pick Henry and mostly based on volume"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Victor Henry

The MMA Guru picks Victor Henry, believing he won't be held down by Tony Gravely. He thinks Henry will do more damage in between takedown attempts and out-hustle Gravely to a decision win. He notes Gravely lacks the slickness of Assunção and the power to earn respect.

by decision

"I'm gonna side with Victor Henry by decision I think he'll out hustle Tony Gravely in a decision back and forth fight 29-28 to him"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Zane picks Henry, agreeing that his constant pressure and building offense will overwhelm Gravely, who tends to start well but fade. He notes that Gravely's wrestling is not dominant enough to control Henry, and Henry's striking is more sophisticated. He sees it as a similar matchup to Gravely's loss to Bosch-Rott.

"Victor Henry will definitely clean your clock with a really good straight right hand or a big uppercut or something like that. So hard not to pick Victor Henry here."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Javid Basharat

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Javid Basharat	0	33 of 113	29%	39 of 119	2 of 13	15%	0	0	1:43
Tony Gravely	0	80 of 149	53%	106 of 177	2 of 4	50%	0	0	3:13

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Javid Basharat	15 of 42	35%	15 of 42	2 of 4	50%	1:12
1	Tony Gravely	17 of 36	47%	24 of 43	1 of 1	100%	0:20
2	Javid Basharat	5 of 22	22%	11 of 28	0 of 5	0%	0:27
2	Tony Gravely	21 of 31	67%	40 of 52	1 of 2	50%	2:42
3	Javid Basharat	13 of 49	26%	13 of 49	0 of 4	0%	0:04
3	Tony Gravely	42 of 82	51%	42 of 82	0 of 1	0%	0:11

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Javid Basharat	33 of 113	29%	17 of 84	2 of 11	14 of 18	30 of 106	3 of 7	0 of 0
Tony Gravely	80 of 149	53%	50 of 113	24 of 30	6 of 6	69 of 134	6 of 10	5 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Javid Basharat	15 of 42	35%	7 of 30	2 of 4	6 of 8	14 of 39	1 of 3	0 of 0
1	Tony Gravely	17 of 36	47%	7 of 24	7 of 9	3 of 3	14 of 31	3 of 5	0 of 0
2	Javid Basharat	5 of 22	22%	3 of 15	0 of 5	2 of 2	4 of 19	1 of 3	0 of 0
2	Tony Gravely	21 of 31	67%	14 of 23	5 of 6	2 of 2	14 of 23	2 of 3	5 of 5
3	Javid Basharat	13 of 49	26%	7 of 39	0 of 2	6 of 8	12 of 48	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Tony Gravely	42 of 82	51%	29 of 66	12 of 15	1 of 1	41 of 80	1 of 2	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Angelo picks Basharat because he is more well-rounded, with excellent offensive and defensive wrestling and technical striking. He notes that Gravely is a dominant wrestler but has cardio issues and questionable submission defense. Angelo acknowledges that Gravely's pressure and takedown attempts could be a problem, but believes Basharat's footwork and striking advantage will carry him.

"i do like javid here ultimately i think he's gonna get the win but there's a world where gravely pressures forward gets the takedown and goes from there"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Big Brady picks Javid Basharat to win, but with hesitation. He acknowledges that Tony Gravely has fought much better competition and has a phenomenal wrestling resume, but Brady is concerned about Gravely's cardio, chin, and submission defense. Brady notes that Basharat is dangerous everywhere—striking, wrestling, and submissions—and thinks Basharat can catch Gravely in a submission as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Gravely has been finished six times (five by submission). However, Brady says he would not bet the moneyline due to question marks about Basharat's takedown defense, which hasn't been tested against a wrestler of Gravely's caliber.

second round submission

"I'll say he eventually does catch gravely in a submission i think java is a very good grappler so uh basharat i'll say basharat by second round sub"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Cody agrees, citing Basharat's size, cardio, and durability. He notes Gravely's tendency to get submitted when tired and that Basharat's wrestling and pressure will be key. He thinks Basharat can survive early adversity and win.

"i think bosch can eventually just you know break on through to the other side"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Daniel Levi leans Javid Basharat due to his output, length, and well-roundedness, but is not confident. He sees Tony Gravely as a tough prospect tester with power and wrestling, but prone to bonehead mistakes. He thinks Basharat projects higher but this is a tough test. He does not bet, preferring to watch.

"I'm a lean javid because i love the output i love the tenacity i love the well-roundedness but gravley's clearly fought the better level of competition"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Jacob picks Basharat, agreeing with Angelo that Gravely will wrestle nonstop but that Basharat's footwork and technical striking give him a major advantage. He notes that Gravely's takedowns are not always successful and that Basharat can keep it standing. Jacob also mentions that the minus 150 odds are more appetizing than the initial two-to-one line.

"i think this is javid's fight to lose i i love his footwork he's in and out in the striking should have a major advantage in the striking"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)

Javid Basharat

Basharat has slick striking and excellent defensive grappling, which should neutralize Gravely's takedowns. Gravely may land takedowns but struggles to keep opponents down, and Basharat will work back to his feet and land bigger shots. Basharat's cardio and finishing ability are factors. I like Basharat by decision at +300 or a late finish. However, this is Basharat's toughest test, so I'm not betting the moneyline.

Basharat by decision at +300, Basharat in round 3 at +1000

"give me Javid Javid by decision but a late finish in his favor is absolutely possible in this spot"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Paul thinks Basharat's cardio and durability will wear down Gravely, who tends to fade. He notes Gravely's losses come from being broken down over time. He expects Basharat to out-grapple and out-last Gravely.

"javid will be the pick for milwaukee"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Javid Basharat by 29-28 decision. He thinks Tony Gravely is talented but perhaps overrated, noting his close fights and losses to Nate Maness and Brett Johns. He believes Basharat is on that level, trains at a great gym, and will out-strike Gravely on the feet, ripping the body and landing head shots. He expects Gravely to win the first round via grappling but Basharat to take over in rounds 2 and 3 based on damage.

"i'm going to say a 29-28 decision for javid basher out on damage"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Johnny Muñoz Jr.

KO (punches) R1 1:08 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tony Gravely	0	2 of 7	28%	2 of 7	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	1	5 of 15	33%	6 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Tony Gravely	0	2 of 7	28%	2 of 7	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	1	5 of 15	33%	6 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tony Gravely	2 of 7	28%	0 of 5	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	5 of 15	33%	4 of 12	0 of 0	1 of 3	2 of 11	0 of 0	3 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tony Gravely	2 of 7	28%	0 of 5	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	5 of 15	33%	4 of 12	0 of 0	1 of 3	2 of 11	0 of 0	3 of 4

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Angelo highlights Tony Gravely's relentless wrestling and high takedown average, but notes his questionable submission defense and cardio issues. Johnny Muñoz is a BJJ black belt with slick grappling. Angelo is split because five of Gravely's losses are by submission and seven of Muñoz's wins are by submission. He ultimately picks Gravely because he believes Gravely will dictate the fight with top control, but acknowledges the risk of getting caught.

"my gut is saying stick with tony because if nothing else i am positive he's gonna wrestle i'm positive that he'll be on top and he will get a good amount of control"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Big Brady picks Johnny Muñoz Jr. as an underdog to win by submission, likely in the third round. He notes that while Gravely is a relentless wrestler, Muñoz is a black belt in BJJ who wants the fight on the mat. He compares it to the Bartosz-Swabinski vs. Gerald Meerschaert fight where the wrestler took down the grappler and got submitted. He thinks Gravely will get takedowns but Muñoz will capitalize on submission opportunities, especially as Gravely slows down. He also mentions Muñoz's size advantage.

Muñoz by submission, round 3

"I'm going to take the dog here and johnny munoz jr i'm going to be looking for that sub prop as well"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Cody picks Gravely, noting his athleticism and wrestling. He thinks Muñoz's striking is poor and Gravely can win on the feet or via takedowns. He is confident but expects to sweat due to Gravely's past mistakes.

"i'm definitely gonna have some tony gravely but the entire time you're gonna be sweating"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Daniel Levi picks Tony Gravely, acknowledging the submission threat from Muñoz but believing Gravely is the better fighter overall. He expects Gravely to win a decision if he avoids mistakes, but admits Muñoz has a clear path via submission. He will not bet the fight but may take small shots on Muñoz submission props.

"as a pure pick i'm gonna go with gravley here because i just think he's the better fighter it's just that i know there's this chance that he's gonna be winning the entire fight and [ __ ] it up"

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Paul picks Gravely, citing his wrestling and striking advantage. He notes Muñoz's lack of striking and inactivity. He thinks Gravely can win via sprawl-and-brawl or wrestling, but acknowledges Gravely's tendency to make mistakes.

"i think tony gravely i think the price makes sense to me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely by 30-27 unanimous decision. He criticizes Muñoz's padded resume and notes that Gravely performed better than Muñoz against common opponent Nate Maness, nearly finishing him. He believes Gravely has superior striking and scrambling, and will mix up takedowns to dominate. He expects Muñoz to have some submission attempts but Gravely to escape.

"tony gravely 30 27 unanimous decision win over johnny munoz"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Saimon Oliveira

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tony Gravely	0	46 of 99	46%	66 of 132	11 of 15	73%	0	0	11:28
Saimon Oliveira	0	35 of 71	49%	50 of 87	0 of 0	---	4	0	0:15

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Tony Gravely	5 of 21	23%	14 of 36	2 of 5	40%	0	4:31
1	Saimon Oliveira	4 of 6	66%	5 of 7	0 of 0	---	2	0:03
2	Tony Gravely	20 of 44	45%	25 of 51	4 of 5	80%	0	3:33
2	Saimon Oliveira	18 of 29	62%	21 of 33	0 of 0	---	0	0:12
3	Tony Gravely	21 of 34	61%	27 of 45	5 of 5	100%	0	3:24
3	Saimon Oliveira	13 of 36	36%	24 of 47	0 of 0	---	2	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tony Gravely	46 of 99	46%	36 of 87	4 of 6	6 of 6	24 of 50	4 of 7	18 of 42
Saimon Oliveira	35 of 71	49%	21 of 53	9 of 13	5 of 5	27 of 62	8 of 9	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tony Gravely	5 of 21	23%	4 of 20	0 of 0	1 of 1	2 of 5	0 of 0	3 of 16
1	Saimon Oliveira	4 of 6	66%	2 of 4	1 of 1	1 of 1	4 of 6	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Tony Gravely	20 of 44	45%	15 of 38	4 of 5	1 of 1	9 of 23	2 of 4	9 of 17
2	Saimon Oliveira	18 of 29	62%	11 of 22	4 of 4	3 of 3	10 of 20	8 of 9	0 of 0
3	Tony Gravely	21 of 34	61%	17 of 29	0 of 1	4 of 4	13 of 22	2 of 3	6 of 9
3	Saimon Oliveira	13 of 36	36%	8 of 27	4 of 8	1 of 1	13 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Angelo picks Tony Gravely despite the submission threat from Oliveira. He believes Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will be effective, similar to how Arjan Bhullar beat Oliveira. However, he warns that five of Gravely's seven losses are by submission, and Oliveira has 11 submission wins, so he will be looking at prop bets.

looking at prop bets

"i'm still gonna pick tony gravy to win here i think he'll have solid pressure and smother olivera similar to how you know ari ferrius beat oliveira but tony needs to watch out for elbows from the bottom and avoid …"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely to win by first or second round knockout, citing his power advantage and superior competition. He notes Oliveira's record is padded and he is hittable. Gravely has multiple paths: knockout on the feet or takedown and ground-and-pound. The only concern is Gravely has been submitted before, but those were against elite grapplers. He expects Gravely to finish Oliveira early.

Gravely by KO in rounds 1-2; mentions Oliveira's padded record

"i'm going to take gravely to win by i'm going to say first or second round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Cody picks Tony Gravely, citing his collegiate wrestling, developing boxing, and power. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished and has poor defensive tendencies, leaving himself open to big shots. Cody believes Gravely's wrestling and striking will be too much, but warns that Gravely has cardio issues and can be reckless. He likes Gravely by knockout but notes the decision is possible.

Tony Gravely by knockout +225 at DraftKings

"Gravely is my pick... Gravely by knockout."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Saimon Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Saimon Oliveira as an underdog. He notes that Tony Gravely has a history of mental lapses, getting submitted or knocked out after dominating early rounds. Oliveira is experienced (18-3), has fought tough competition like Ari Farias, and has knockout power and opportunistic submissions. Levi believes Gravely will muscle Oliveira around early but eventually leave his neck or chin out, allowing Oliveira to capitalize and get his first UFC win. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Oliveira by opportunistic finish (submission or KO); +205 underdog

"i think that simon oliveira is going to capitalize and actually get his first ufc win"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Saimon Oliveira

The host leans Oliveira because he believes Gravely's cardio is suspect and that Oliveira has advantages on the feet and in the clinch. He notes that Gravely tends to fade in later rounds and that Oliveira has good guillotine chokes if Gravely shoots desperately. He expects Oliveira to win by submission in the third round, but he is not confident enough to bet it heavily; he may take a small play on under 2.5 rounds.

Oliveira inside the distance (+400), under 2.5 rounds (+115)

"i do lean oliveira ever so slightly though i do think that he'll likely lose the first round so possibly a live betting opportunity there"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Paul picks Tony Gravely, agreeing that Gravely's wrestling and power are key. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished but puts himself in positions to get sparked. Paul warns that Gravely's cardio is a concern and that he gassed against Nate Maness. He advises not going too heavy on Gravely due to these risks.

"The pick is Tony Gravely but I've learned a little bit more, I don't want to go super high on him."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely, though hesitant due to Gravely's recent KO loss. He notes Gravely's tough competition and training at 80T, and believes his grappling and stand-up will be enough. He was unimpressed by Oliveira's contender series performance and predicts a close 29-28 decision.

"tony gravely gets this one done i wasn't too impressed by the contender series performance of oliveira"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Nate Maness

TKO (punches) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Nate Maness	1	31 of 63	49%	64 of 98	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:15
Tony Gravely	1	36 of 68	52%	44 of 77	1 of 6	16%	0	0	2:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Nate Maness	0	15 of 35	42%	45 of 65	1 of 1	100%	0:09
1	Tony Gravely	1	26 of 41	63%	32 of 48	1 of 5	20%	1:53
2	Nate Maness	1	16 of 28	57%	19 of 33	0 of 0	---	0:06
2	Tony Gravely	0	10 of 27	37%	12 of 29	0 of 1	0%	0:33

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Nate Maness	31 of 63	49%	26 of 57	5 of 6	0 of 0	21 of 52	2 of 2	8 of 9
Tony Gravely	36 of 68	52%	18 of 43	8 of 11	10 of 14	25 of 55	8 of 10	3 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Nate Maness	15 of 35	42%	12 of 31	3 of 4	0 of 0	13 of 33	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Tony Gravely	26 of 41	63%	11 of 23	6 of 8	9 of 10	17 of 32	6 of 6	3 of 3
2	Nate Maness	16 of 28	57%	14 of 26	2 of 2	0 of 0	8 of 19	0 of 0	8 of 9
2	Tony Gravely	10 of 27	37%	7 of 20	2 of 3	1 of 4	8 of 23	2 of 4	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Angelo picks Tony Gravely but is hesitant. He thinks Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will win two rounds, but Nate Maness is well-rounded and will likely win a round. He placed a bet on Nate Maness +3.5 rounds (win a round) at even money, expecting Gravely to win 29-28. He notes Gravely's cardio issues and Maness's size.

Nate Maness +3.5 rounds (even money)

"i have tony gravely as my pick"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely, citing his relentless wrestling and top control. He notes Maness has good takedown defense initially but offers little on his back. Gravely has never been knocked out, and Maness has zero submissions off his back. He predicts a first-round TKO for Gravely.

first round TKO

"i'll say tony gravely wins by my first round tko"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Cody picks Gravely, citing his wrestling and improvements at American Top Team. He notes that Maness has suspect cardio and was nearly finished by Luke Sanders before coming back. Cody believes Gravely's chain wrestling will wear down Maness, though he admits the price is high.

Maness by submission +1100 (sprinkle)

"i am going to go gravely i wouldn't fault you for taking nate my nest"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Tony Gravely

Daniel Levi picks Tony Gravely. He describes Maness as average in all areas, while Gravely is a grappling specialist. He notes Gravely has been submitted before but that's due to his large sample size. He worries about judges not understanding grappling, citing the De Freitas fight where one judge scored against Gravely. He advises caution but picks Gravely.

proceed with caution due to judging

"i got gravely man it's just these judges you gotta be careful so i'd say proceed with caution there"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Tony Gravely

Preet picks Gravely because he believes Gravely's wrestling is on a different level than Maness has faced. He thinks Maness will back up to the cage and get taken down, where Gravely can pass guard and finish. He likes Gravely inside the distance at +235 and under 2.5 rounds at +155.

Tony Gravely inside the distance +235, Under 2.5 rounds +155

"I actually like gravley uh inside the distance here I do think that he'll go out there and get the finisher against a guy like nate maness"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Paul leans toward Gravely but is not confident due to the price. He notes that Maness has shown the ability to come back from bad first rounds. Paul suggests live betting Maness if he loses the first round.

"i think gravely has made the improvements... i just think that he's starting to put it all together"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Nate Maness

The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness over Tony Gravely, citing Maness's superior grappling and ability to out-grapple Gravely, who struggled with Geraldo de Freitas. He notes Maness is an underdog and calls it a good value pick. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

underdog pick

"nate minnes being a better grappler than him and being a better grappler than geraldo defletas"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Anthony Birchak

TKO (punch) R2 1:31 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tony Gravely	2	39 of 75	52%	61 of 105	4 of 6	66%	0	0	4:34
Anthony Birchak	0	18 of 45	40%	30 of 59	0 of 1	0%	1	1	0:27

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Tony Gravely	1	32 of 65	49%	50 of 88	3 of 5	60%	0	0	3:20
1	Anthony Birchak	0	14 of 35	40%	26 of 49	0 of 1	0%	1	1	0:27
2	Tony Gravely	1	7 of 10	70%	11 of 17	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:14
2	Anthony Birchak	0	4 of 10	40%	4 of 10	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tony Gravely	39 of 75	52%	31 of 65	5 of 6	3 of 4	17 of 33	1 of 5	21 of 37
Anthony Birchak	18 of 45	40%	11 of 34	4 of 8	3 of 3	11 of 36	3 of 5	4 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tony Gravely	32 of 65	49%	27 of 59	3 of 3	2 of 3	12 of 27	1 of 3	19 of 35
1	Anthony Birchak	14 of 35	40%	10 of 28	2 of 5	2 of 2	9 of 30	1 of 1	4 of 4
2	Tony Gravely	7 of 10	70%	4 of 6	2 of 3	1 of 1	5 of 6	0 of 2	2 of 2
2	Anthony Birchak	4 of 10	40%	1 of 6	2 of 3	1 of 1	2 of 6	2 of 4	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely to win by dominant decision. He believes Gravely's wrestling will be too much for Birchak, and that Gravely will have no problem getting takedowns. He acknowledges Gravely's submission losses but notes they came against elite grapplers. He thinks Birchak is not on that level and that Gravely should control the fight. He expects a 30-27 unanimous decision with takedowns and control time, and mentions a possible finish.

"give me gravy to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Cody thinks Gravely's chain wrestling and takedown volume will overwhelm Birchak. He notes that Birchak has poor takedown defense and has been submitted multiple times. He expects Gravely to rack up takedowns and control time, possibly getting a submission in the third round. He is very confident.

Gravely by submission, Gravely as a DraftKings play

"i think tony gravely on your lineup man i think he's got the capability to go out there and score 10 takedown"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Tony Gravely

Daniel Levi confidently picks Tony Gravely, stating that Anthony Birchak is past his prime and not UFC caliber. He praises Gravely's wrestling and power, noting that his submission defense is better than perceived. Levi expects Gravely to win by unanimous decision, possibly with a finish by grinding down Birchak. He also mentions that Birchak was brought in on short notice and is outmatched.

unanimous decision

"i'm gonna go grably here to get it done probably unanimous decision"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Tony Gravely

Manpreet is confident Gravely will win by decision, highlighting his wrestling pressure and top control. He notes that Birchak is content to fight off his back and has poor takedown defense, as seen in his recent loss. He believes Gravely will grind out a decision, making the decision prop a strong play at plus money.

Gravely by decision +245; fight goes the distance +150

"i think that gravley definitely wins this fight i think he takes this to the ground uh controls this fight"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Paul agrees that Gravely's wrestling will be the key. He notes that Birchak is past his prime and has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He expects Gravely to dominate with takedowns and control. He is confident in Gravely winning.

"tony gravely i think that his chain wrestling probably wins him out the day"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely to win by third-round TKO via ground and pound. He believes Gravely is an underrated bantamweight prospect with good grappling and stand-up skills. He notes that Birchak has good jiu-jitsu awareness and won't be submitted, but expects Gravely to wear him down in later rounds. He emphasizes that Gravely's losses are to high-level opponents, which shows confidence from his coaches.

third round TKO via ground and pound

"i think he'll go out there and get a third round tko against anthony burkhack due to ground and pound"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Geraldo de Freitas

Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos · Nov 14, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tony Gravely	0	76 of 128	59%	108 of 165	1 of 4	25%	0	0	0:02
Geraldo de Freitas	0	49 of 101	48%	86 of 144	7 of 17	41%	0	0	9:55

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Tony Gravely	13 of 27	48%	22 of 40	0 of 1	0%	0:00
1	Geraldo de Freitas	10 of 23	43%	23 of 40	2 of 2	100%	3:38
2	Tony Gravely	19 of 27	70%	29 of 37	1 of 3	33%	0:02
2	Geraldo de Freitas	15 of 30	50%	26 of 42	3 of 7	42%	3:23
3	Tony Gravely	44 of 74	59%	57 of 88	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Geraldo de Freitas	24 of 48	50%	37 of 62	2 of 8	25%	2:54

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tony Gravely	76 of 128	59%	61 of 111	12 of 14	3 of 3	69 of 117	4 of 6	3 of 5
Geraldo de Freitas	49 of 101	48%	37 of 87	4 of 5	8 of 9	27 of 72	5 of 6	17 of 23

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tony Gravely	13 of 27	48%	11 of 25	0 of 0	2 of 2	13 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 1
1	Geraldo de Freitas	10 of 23	43%	5 of 17	0 of 1	5 of 5	4 of 15	0 of 0	6 of 8
2	Tony Gravely	19 of 27	70%	14 of 22	4 of 4	1 of 1	14 of 22	2 of 2	3 of 3
2	Geraldo de Freitas	15 of 30	50%	15 of 30	0 of 0	0 of 0	7 of 19	1 of 2	7 of 9
3	Tony Gravely	44 of 74	59%	36 of 64	8 of 10	0 of 0	42 of 69	2 of 4	0 of 1
3	Geraldo de Freitas	24 of 48	50%	17 of 40	4 of 4	3 of 4	16 of 38	4 of 4	4 of 6

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Gravely after initially leaning toward de Freitas. He notes Gravely's wrestling and takedowns will be key, and de Freitas' takedown defense is unimpressive. He worries about Gravely's submission vulnerability but thinks he can avoid submissions and win a decision.

submission prop for de Freitas mentioned as a possible look for those on his side

"i gotta take gravely here i'm gonna take him to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Tony Gravely

Daniel picks Gravely, believing he is the stronger and more talented fighter with a Division I wrestling background. He notes that Gravely has a tendency to gas and give up his back, but thinks his training at ATT with good partners will help. He sees de Freitas as more basic and lacking adjustments, so Gravely should edge out a decision if he doesn't get submitted.

"i am gonna pick him for the uh the win as well"

Half the Battle

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely by submission, specifically a guillotine choke in the first or second round. He praises Gravely's grappling and scrambles, noting his experience in five-round fights. He acknowledges Geraldo de Freitas' cardio but believes Gravely will out-scramble him and latch up a submission.

Guillotine choke in round 1 or 2; mentions Gravely's experience in five-round fights

"I'm going to go with Tony Gravely here, I think he'll get the submission win against Geraldo de Freitas Junior."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Brett Johns

Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:53 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos · Jan 25, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brett Johns	0	36 of 47	76%	65 of 80	6 of 9	66%	3	1	7:18
Tony Gravely	0	26 of 44	59%	43 of 66	5 of 7	71%	0	0	4:10

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Brett Johns	9 of 13	69%	20 of 24	2 of 2	100%	2	0	3:35
1	Tony Gravely	7 of 13	53%	14 of 22	1 of 2	50%	0	0	1:01
2	Brett Johns	4 of 5	80%	13 of 16	3 of 6	50%	0	0	1:23
2	Tony Gravely	18 of 24	75%	25 of 34	3 of 4	75%	0	0	2:56
3	Brett Johns	23 of 29	79%	32 of 40	1 of 1	100%	1	1	2:20
3	Tony Gravely	1 of 7	14%	4 of 10	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:13

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brett Johns	36 of 47	76%	33 of 43	2 of 3	1 of 1	3 of 11	8 of 8	25 of 28
Tony Gravely	26 of 44	59%	9 of 25	6 of 7	11 of 12	5 of 18	21 of 26	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brett Johns	9 of 13	69%	7 of 11	1 of 1	1 of 1	2 of 5	4 of 4	3 of 4
1	Tony Gravely	7 of 13	53%	1 of 5	1 of 2	5 of 6	3 of 8	4 of 5	0 of 0
2	Brett Johns	4 of 5	80%	3 of 3	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 1	4 of 4	0 of 0
2	Tony Gravely	18 of 24	75%	8 of 14	4 of 4	6 of 6	1 of 3	17 of 21	0 of 0
3	Brett Johns	23 of 29	79%	23 of 29	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 5	0 of 0	22 of 24
3	Tony Gravely	1 of 7	14%	0 of 6	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 24, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Brett Johns

Daniel picks Brett Johns by submission, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and opportunistic grappling. He notes that Gravely has been submitted multiple times and that Johns is a black belt who can capitalize on any opening. He believes Johns' experience against top competition will show.

by submission

"I'm gonna go with Bret John's here via submission"

Half the Battle

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2020 (5 days before fight)

Brett Johns

The MMA Guru picks Brett Johns, noting his 15-0 record before losses to top bantamweights Pedro Munhoz and Aljamain Sterling. He believes Johns is still an absolute beast, fights out of Wales, and is a big bantamweight who will win by decision against Tony Gravely, whose outside UFC record he doesn't like.

decision

"Bray John's I feel like he's gonna get this win over Tony gravely... I think he's gonna get a win by decision"

THE MMA GURU

Johnny Muñoz Jr. - Fight History

LOSS vs Aoriqileng

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aoriqileng	1	44 of 66	66%	120 of 159	2 of 4	50%	0	0	5:39
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	0	7 of 36	19%	31 of 73	4 of 11	36%	3	0	4:30

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Aoriqileng	0	7 of 11	63%	23 of 32	0 of 0	---	0	0:03
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	0	1 of 10	10%	10 of 28	3 of 5	60%	1	2:56
2	Aoriqileng	0	13 of 19	68%	51 of 61	1 of 2	50%	0	3:33
2	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	0	1 of 5	20%	5 of 10	0 of 3	0%	1	0:27
3	Aoriqileng	1	24 of 36	66%	46 of 66	1 of 2	50%	0	2:03
3	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	0	5 of 21	23%	16 of 35	1 of 3	33%	1	1:07

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aoriqileng	44 of 66	66%	24 of 41	8 of 11	12 of 14	28 of 45	1 of 3	15 of 18
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	7 of 36	19%	5 of 30	2 of 3	0 of 3	7 of 33	0 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aoriqileng	7 of 11	63%	5 of 6	0 of 1	2 of 4	6 of 10	0 of 0	1 of 1
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	1 of 10	10%	1 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 1	1 of 9	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Aoriqileng	13 of 19	68%	5 of 10	3 of 4	5 of 5	8 of 12	1 of 2	4 of 5
2	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	1 of 5	20%	1 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 1	1 of 4	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Aoriqileng	24 of 36	66%	14 of 25	5 of 6	5 of 5	14 of 23	0 of 1	10 of 12
3	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	5 of 21	23%	3 of 17	2 of 3	0 of 1	5 of 20	0 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Qileng Aori
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aori (-112), Munoz (-108)

Round 1
When the dust settles after this bantamweight battle, one of the two competitors will likely be back in the win column – barring something strange or a draw. Additionally, the victor will move back to a .500 record with the promotion, while the defeated may find themselves on the chopping block. Whether that is China’s Aori (24-11, 2-3 UFC) or “Kid Kvenbo” Munoz Jr. (12-3, 2-3 UFC), they will have 15 minutes or less to decide that. Referee Keith Peterson draws the charge for this nonsense-free matchup, and the fighters do not have time for a touch of gloves first. Instead, Aori wants to stalk straight forward and fire off a leg kick. The pace wanes as they try to find their distances, with Aori’s occasional low kick the only strikes after about 90 seconds. Aori suddenly sprints into action with a left to the body and a hard right to the head, and Munoz has to shake it off and shoots for a takedown in response. Aori easily stops it and delivers a stern leg kick. Munoz whips a right hand over the top, stinging his opponent and backing him to the fence. Instead of taking advantage of the situation with more strikes, “Kid Kvenbo” settles to shoot in for a double-leg takedown. Munoz gets his man down momentarily, and Aori powers back up. Although Munoz gets a mat return, Aori again has little issue standing, but he does give up his back. Munoz uses this to trip up Aori from behind, and he gets his hooks in and secures back control when Aori hits the ground. The Chinese fighter is quick to hand-fight to not allow any submission attempt get anywhere close to completion, and Munoz tries to soften him up with a few body shots and slide his right arm around the chin. Aori looks to push his feet off the fence to get a bit of leverage, and he spins around quickly. This allows Munoz to snatch up an armbar, and Aori struggles momentarily but breaks the grip and stands up. One big kick from Aori to Munoz’ thigh concludes the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munoz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Munoz

Round 2
Aori immediately starts the round aggressively, putting hands on Munoz and hurting him early. Munoz responds with a few strikes but is bowled over, and Aori moves himself into the guard of his opponent. Munoz protests that Aori is clawing his eyes or sticking fingers up his nose, and Peterson tells Aori to keep it clean. Munoz considers a submission attempt from his back, and he slides his leg up and around to set up an armbar. Aori wrenches his limb free from the sub, and he lowers himself back down to the guard. Munoz uses his active guard to force Aori to think twice and stand back up, and when Aori gets up, he starts slapping his feet into Munoz’ legs. Aori times a diving right hand to smash Munoz in the face, and Munoz smiles at him. Aori gets back to his feet, and Peterson has Munoz stand after a few awkward moments. Aori nails his man with a calf kick, and he clips Munoz with a few punches. Munoz shakes it off and backpedals, loosing a head kick that sails past his opponent. Munoz shoots for a takedown, and although Aori stops it, Munoz succeeds in jamming Aori up to the fencing. Munoz quickly goes for a body lock takedown, looking for some way to leverage Aori down, but Aori is strong and not only stops it but turns Munoz around. Aori sneaks in an elbow, and Munoz does not like this, so the American decides to jump for a guillotine choke while he wraps his legs around Aori’s waist. With Munoz’ back to the wall, there is nothing to the submission, so he releases it right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aori

Round 3
The bantamweights race to meet one another, throwing big right hands one after the other. Aori walks into a jab, and he digs a right hand to the belly. Aori looks for a jump knee when Munoz ducks down, and Munoz eats part of it and laughs, offering a glove touch for the solid blow. Munoz circles to the side, and when he aims a left hand over the top, Aori counters him with two punches as he slides away. Munoz shoots in low for a takedown, and “The Mongolian Murderer” kills the setup and pins Munoz against the wall. Peterson tells the fighters not to grab the fence, and the fighters break away and return to striking distance. A Munoz kick grazes the cup, and Aori adjusts his groin when there is no stoppage. Munoz shoots for a takedown, and Aori perfectly times a body shot that ultimately nails Munoz in the chin and sets him down. Munoz stands back up, and fails on another takedown. When the attempt fails, he gets cracked with another right and flops to his back. Aori jumps down into the open guard of his foe, looking for ground-and-pound. Aori gets some strikes off, racking up the points while not allowing Munoz to get in on a submission. Munoz sells out for a leglock when Aori tries to pass guard, and Munoz finds himself in a strange position that is a partial calf slicer. Aori lays to his back and is not overly concerned about the maneuver, and he drives several hammerfists on the side and back of the head. Peterson is watching closely, warning Aori for a few illegal blows, but Munoz toughs them out and explodes for one last takedown try. Aori staves it off, is pressed to the cage, and the fight comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aori (29-28 Aori)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aori (29-28 Aori)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aori (29-28 Aori)

The Official Result
Qileng Aori def. Johnny Munoz Jr. via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Angelo picks Johnny Muñoz Jr. with low confidence, calling him a 'squirt' but acknowledging his BJJ and power. He notes that Aoriqileng is tough but can be out-grappled. He is waiting for prop bets like a +3.5 spread on Aoriqileng, as Muñoz could be dangerous early but fade. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.

Waiting for +3.5 spread prop on Aoriqileng

"I'm going to pick Johnny Munos he is the underdog ... very low confidence"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Aoriqileng

Big Brady is not high on either fighter and calls this his least favorite fight on the card. He criticizes Johnny Muñoz Jr. for quitting in his last fight and notes that Aoriqileng has shown decent takedown defense and the ability to get back to his feet. He believes Aoriqileng can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, leading to a decision win. He is not betting this fight.

"I'm going to take AI long to win by decision here"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Aoriqileng

Cody picks Aoriqileng, citing his physicality, pressure, and power. He notes that Muñoz lacks power and has unimpressive wrestling. Aoriqileng should land the bigger shots and win a decision or late stoppage.

Aoriqileng by decision

"sign me up for originally by uh unanimous... sign me up for"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Aoriqileng

Daniel Levi picks Aoriqileng, citing his heavy hitting and durability. He notes that Johnny Muñoz has suspect striking and doesn't like to get hit, and that Aoriqileng can crack him. He acknowledges Muñoz's jiu-jitsu threat but thinks Aoriqileng's power and grit will be the difference.

"I'm still gonna go I already to win this fight"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)

Aoriqileng

Lucrative James believes Aoriqileng has a massive advantage on the feet and will hurt Muñoz to the body. He thinks Muñoz is flaky and will get finished on the feet, predicting a knockout. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds at even money, noting that Muñoz's wrestling is not good enough to get the fight to the ground consistently.

under 2.5 rounds at even money

"I'm going to pick iichi Lang knockout"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)

Aoriqileng

Aoriqileng has improved his takedown defense and trains with strong wrestlers. He should be able to keep the fight standing and use his volume striking to overwhelm Muñoz. Muñoz has struggled to get fights to the ground and relies on BJJ, but his striking and wrestling have been poor. Aoriqileng should win by decision, possibly with some ground and pound.

"that should allow Richi Lang to end up in top position maybe rain down some big shots... and getting his hand raised by decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Aoriqileng

Paul leans toward Aoriqileng, expecting him to land the more punishing strikes over 15 minutes. He is unsure about the wrestling matchup but believes Aoriqileng's pressure will be effective. He would not bet this fight with his own money.

"if I was forced to make a play on this fight it would be uh orichi Lang as well"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Muñoz Jr. over Aoriqileng. He notes Muñoz didn't look bad against Daniel Santos, who is a good finisher, and that Muñoz showed enough striking defense to avoid being finished. He believes Aoriqileng is dangerous only in round one and then fades, while Muñoz is consistently okay throughout the fight. He suggests a betting strategy: if Aoriqileng wins the first round, bet on Muñoz Jr. as Aoriqileng tends to gas.

if you see Aoriqileng winning the first round and he's up on the odds, put some money on Muñoz Jr.

"I'm gonna have to go with Johnny Munoz Jr I think he's consistently okay enough throughout the distance of the fight"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Daniel Santos

Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Daniel Santos	0	50 of 91	54%	134 of 198	3 of 4	75%	0	1	10:47
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	0	18 of 39	46%	64 of 101	1 of 8	12%	1	0	1:19

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Daniel Santos	7 of 28	25%	21 of 46	0 of 1	0%	0	0	2:54
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	8 of 17	47%	25 of 38	0 of 4	0%	1	0	0:21
2	Daniel Santos	29 of 41	70%	65 of 92	1 of 1	100%	0	0	4:01
2	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	6 of 15	40%	19 of 29	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:25
3	Daniel Santos	14 of 22	63%	48 of 60	2 of 2	100%	0	1	3:52
3	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	4 of 7	57%	20 of 34	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:33

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Daniel Santos	50 of 91	54%	30 of 62	15 of 19	5 of 10	10 of 38	6 of 7	34 of 46
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	18 of 39	46%	8 of 26	8 of 10	2 of 3	15 of 30	3 of 9	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Daniel Santos	7 of 28	25%	3 of 18	3 of 7	1 of 3	5 of 25	1 of 2	1 of 1
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	8 of 17	47%	3 of 12	4 of 4	1 of 1	7 of 16	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Daniel Santos	29 of 41	70%	18 of 27	8 of 8	3 of 6	2 of 6	2 of 2	25 of 33
2	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	6 of 15	40%	3 of 9	2 of 4	1 of 2	6 of 9	0 of 6	0 of 0
3	Daniel Santos	14 of 22	63%	9 of 17	4 of 4	1 of 1	3 of 7	3 of 3	8 of 12
3	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	4 of 7	57%	2 of 5	2 of 2	0 of 0	2 of 5	2 of 2	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Daniel Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-205), Munoz (+175)

Round 1
Wrapping up the prelims is a fight previously scheduled for May. Suffering an injury a month ago, Santos (11-2, 2-1 UFC) is ready to go this time around, and ready to represent his team of Chute Boxe Diego Lima. He will throw down with California’s Munoz (12-2, 2-2 UFC), who is hoping to lift his UFC record above .500. The two will battle it out under the oversight of referee Herb Dean, and the fight kicks off with a half-hearted touch of gloves. The two immediately kick at the same time, and Santos’ shin spits the upright and smashes square into Munoz’ cup. Munoz collapses to the ground in agony from the brutal but accidental kick, and he rolls around trying to recover from the blow. After a minute, Munoz manages to stand up, and he leans on the cage as Dean tells him to take his time. Munoz paces back and forth, shaking it out, and he tells Dean that he is good to go after two minutes. Dean tells Santos to watch his weapons, and the two fighters get back to it with a glove touch. Santos thinks about a low kick, and he pulls back on it. Munoz strides forward with a right hand, and he rushes the Brazilian fighter to the wall. Santos attempts to trip his foe to the mat, and then both drop a knee. Munoz stands up and pulls guard to drag “Willycat” on top of him, and he fastens a body triangle around Santos’ waist on top of him. Santos breaks it up courtesy of a few body shots, and Munoz rolls for an armbar. Santos climbs back to his feet, and he gets belted with an upkick on the way. Santos lowers himself back in, and he finds himself in immediate triangle choke danger. Munoz locks it up, but Santos is able to stack him up and break the grip just enough to get some breathing room, and he stands back up. Santos allows Munoz to follow him, and he is greeted by a step-in knee. Santos thanks him for this by spinning with a kick to the body, and Munoz drills a left hand to the dome and kicks low only to catch Santos in the cup. Santos gets ample time to recover, and Munoz gets the warning this time around. After 30 seconds, Santos is ready to roll out, and he starts by kicking. Santos then decides to jump with a strike, and he takes a front kick to the body and dodges a spinning back fist that flies past him. Munoz shoots in for a double out of nowhere, and Santos stands him up and knees him in the groin. There is no break this time, and instead they explode out of the clinch position with a knee from Munoz. Munoz gets thrown to the floor and may welcome the takedown, and Santos stands and swats away an upkick before letting Munoz back up. When both up again, Santos rips the body with a kick. Munoz dives at him for a takedown, and when that fails, he attempts a flying leglock that misses the mark and ends with him flopping on his back. Before he can stand, Santos leaps at him to take top position. Santos lets the guard close around him to slow things down. Santos postures up with seconds to go, and Munoz kicks off the chest to make Santos get up. When Munoz follows him, he blocks a jumping switch kick, and the dramatic round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munoz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up to start the second round, and Munoz jumps with a knee and is intercepted midair with a front kick. Santos sits down on a left hook as Munoz crashes the pocket, and Munoz ends up pulling guard when he cannot secure his own takedown. Santos lets him close the guard so that he can work the body and head with punches and an elbow, and Munoz looks for a body triangle off his back. Santos breaks it up with a straight right hand, and he swats away an upkick and stands up to look for a way back in. Santos chips at the left leg with kicks as he stands with Munoz his back, and Munoz occasionally kicks back to the knee. Santos wades back into the guard, and Munoz fastens the body lock again to keep Santos pinned on top of him. This allows Santos to pound away from on top, as the submission threats have slowed while Santos is doing some work courtesy of solid ground-and-pound. Dean asks Santos to work during a lull, and Santos rains down punches and hurts Munoz to make him turn to his side. Santos opens his foe’s nose up with ground strikes, and he stands up to drive a left hand to the jaw. Santos kicks the leg a few times before letting Munoz up. Munoz punches his way into a desperate takedown attempt, and Santos stuffs him and sets up a front choke. Munoz rolls to his back before the submission can be set up, and he starts hunting for upkicks until Dean has him stand up. They let front kicks do again at the same time, and Munoz kicks a second time and gets knocked to his back with a right hand while off-balance. Santos pounds on his opponent right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 3
The last round begins with a glove touch, and Santos kicks Munoz in the thigh and it bounces up to the cup. Munoz drops to a knee, and he leans against the wall as he figuratively licks his wounds. Munoz holds his midsection because of the pain he endured from the second powerful groin strike. Dean has someone bring the bucket in case Munoz is forced to vomit, but the fouled fighter signals that he is not going to do so. Munoz stands after about two minutes, and Dean has no choice but to deduct one point from Santos for the second foul of its type. Munoz is ready to go again, and Santos is enraged. Munoz starts off looking for a takedown, and Santos throws him to the ground angrily like a sack of potatoes. Munoz allows this so he can open his guard up and try to lock Santos down or look for a submission, but it only results in him staying on his back for a time. Santos lets the body triangle clamp around him so that he can start up with ground-and-pound, and Santos does exactly this for a time. Santos jumps back to his feet, and Munoz fires off upkicks and trips Santos to his back. Munoz climbs back upright and gives chase, throwing haymakers at his opponent until they are driven to the fence. Munoz, getting pushed to the wall, jumps guard with a guillotine choke. Santos keeps tightly pressed against the fencing to prevent any leverage for the sub, and he lowers Munoz to the mat and breaks out of the grip. Santos gets pulled into the closed guard when he goes horizontal, and he opens up with punches to the body and head. Santos sneaks an elbow up top, prompting Munoz to throw his legs up for an armbar. When Santos scampers away, Munoz implores him to test his wares there again. Dean stands them up before this give-and-take ensues, and Munoz answers this by sprinting at Santos and sweeping him off his feet with a successful takedown. Munoz looks to get off strikes, only to get swept and dumped to his back. With seconds to spare, Munoz explodes back to his feet, and Santos leaps at him with a flying cartwheel kick out of the capoeira playbook. Munoz dodges it, and he crashes forward with a flying knee. The fight ends, and it will all hinge on if any judges scored the first round in favor of Munoz.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 9-9 (28-28)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 9-9 (29-27 Santos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 9-9 (29-27 Santos)

The Official Result
Daniel Santos def. Johnny Munoz Jr. via Unanimous Decision (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Daniel Santos

Angelo picks Daniel Santos confidently, noting his dangerous striking and BJJ, though he has low grappling IQ. He is slightly less confident due to the fight being canceled previously for an abscess, but still believes Santos should win. He thinks Santos' pressure and power will be too much for Muñoz, who doesn't like being crowded. Angelo has bets on Santos but not in the safety parlay.

"I do think Daniel Santos wins this fight pretty confident he wins this fight"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Daniel Santos

Cody also picks Santos, calling him a big fan. He notes Santos's forward pressure and aggressive style, and that Muñoz has cardio issues and low volume. Cody expects Santos to win by knockout or decision as Muñoz fades. He thinks the -220 line is a bit stiff but still picks Santos.

"I love his forward pressures aggressive style he's a super super fun guy every single time he goes out there uh Heart of a Lion"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Connor picks Muñoz for consistency, having picked him previously. He acknowledges that Santos' pressure is a major threat, but believes Muñoz's jab will be effective early, similar to how Shabazian used his jab against Santos. Connor admits Muñoz is not creative, but thinks he can land enough jabs to win rounds, though he recognizes Santos' wildness makes this a risky pick.

"I'm still gonna pick moonyo's because I did it already consistency consistency"

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Daniel Santos

Daniel picks Daniel Santos, noting that he is the more aggressive and technical fighter, though he takes risks. He believes Santos can overwhelm Muñoz with pressure and chaos, and that Muñoz doesn't like being backed up. He mentions Santos' grappling is underrated, having tapped out a high-level grappler in training.

"my pick is Daniel Willie cast Santos"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Daniel Santos

Jacob picks Santos, citing his high-pressure Muay Thai style and ability to get dropped and bounce back. He thinks Muñoz doesn't like being crowded and lacks the takedowns to keep Santos down. Jacob notes Muñoz's only path to victory is an early takedown and grind, but Santos' scrambling and offensive wrestling should prevent that. He is confident Santos wins.

"I absolutely love Willy cat in this matchup because he does have that nice high Muay Thai style and it gets in your facing his non-stop pressure"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Daniel Santos

Santos is an aggressive forward-pressure fighter with power and BJJ. He will crash the pocket and land big shots. Muñoz is live for a submission if he can get it to the ground, but Santos' power and pace will be too much. Santos will knock him out in the second round.

knockout round 2

"give me Daniel Santos by knockout let's call it second round"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Daniel Santos

Paul picks Daniel Santos confidently. He loves Santos's forward pressure and aggression, especially in the small Apex cage. He notes Santos is hittable but has a heart of a lion and will break opponents down over time. Paul contrasts Muñoz's questionable cardio and low volume, expecting Santos to take over in later rounds. He acknowledges Santos's loss to Julio Arce but sees that as a tough debut matchup.

"I'll take Willy cat to get the job done"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Santos

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Santos, citing a lack of talent in Johnny Muñoz Jr.'s game. He notes Santos has skill in how he throws shots, pressures fighters, and cuts off the octagon, despite having striking defense issues. He criticizes Muñoz for being well-rounded but unremarkable, and points to his loss to Tony Gravely. The Guru predicts Santos will win by TKO against the cage, but if it goes to decision, it will be close.

Santos by TKO

"I'm definitely gonna side with him over Johnny Munoz I like him over Johnny Munoz because I just don't see any talent in Johnny Manuel's game"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2023 (fight day)

Daniel Santos

Zane picks Santos, sticking with his previous analysis that Santos' relentless pressure and volume will overwhelm Muñoz's one-dimensional jab. He notes that Muñoz's game is built almost entirely around his jab, and Santos' wild, high-output style will break Muñoz's footwork and force him into exchanges where he is vulnerable. Zane believes Santos' aggression and durability will be too much for Muñoz to handle over three rounds.

"I am gonna stick with that and pick daniel santos to be relentless enough and pressuring enough and violent enough to get moonyo's off of his jab"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Liudvik Sholinian

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	0	56 of 152	36%	70 of 166	0 of 2	0%	0	0	1:30
Liudvik Sholinian	0	78 of 227	34%	114 of 270	2 of 4	50%	0	0	2:39

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	21 of 54	38%	21 of 54	0 of 1	0%	0:00
1	Liudvik Sholinian	38 of 94	40%	38 of 94	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	9 of 29	31%	15 of 35	0 of 1	0%	1:30
2	Liudvik Sholinian	19 of 51	37%	39 of 74	0 of 1	0%	1:19
3	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	26 of 69	37%	34 of 77	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Liudvik Sholinian	21 of 82	25%	37 of 102	2 of 3	66%	1:20

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	56 of 152	36%	42 of 137	12 of 13	2 of 2	46 of 142	7 of 7	3 of 3
Liudvik Sholinian	78 of 227	34%	55 of 196	16 of 20	7 of 11	72 of 221	3 of 3	3 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	21 of 54	38%	14 of 47	5 of 5	2 of 2	21 of 54	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Liudvik Sholinian	38 of 94	40%	23 of 76	11 of 12	4 of 6	38 of 94	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	9 of 29	31%	7 of 27	2 of 2	0 of 0	8 of 28	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Liudvik Sholinian	19 of 51	37%	14 of 42	5 of 7	0 of 2	15 of 47	3 of 3	1 of 1
3	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	26 of 69	37%	21 of 63	5 of 6	0 of 0	17 of 60	6 of 6	3 of 3
3	Liudvik Sholinian	21 of 82	25%	18 of 78	0 of 1	3 of 3	19 of 80	0 of 0	2 of 2

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Angelo gives a slight lean to Muñoz because he has more ways to win, citing his BJJ black belt and harder strikes. However, he calls it a razor-thin fight, noting Sholinian has better takedowns and relentless pressure, and is very live as an underdog. He mentions Muñoz can be low volume and slow with kicks.

"I'm gonna do a slight lean for Munoz here because he has more ways to win but this feels like a razor thin fight for me and frankly chelinian is very live"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Big Brady highlights Muñoz's elite grappling and BJJ black belt, expecting a significant advantage on the mat. He notes Sholinian's wrestling background but unimpressive striking and grappling. He believes the fight will hit the mat at some point, and when it does, Muñoz will be very live for a submission. He predicts a second-round submission.

Muñoz wins by submission in round 2

"give me the grappler and Munoz to get it done and I'll gets it done by second round submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Cody picks Johnny Muñoz Jr., noting his superior BJJ and wrestling compared to Sholinian. He thinks Muñoz showed promise in his debut against Nate Maness (outstruck him 49-21, got two takedowns) and finished Jamie Simmons. He acknowledges Muñoz got knocked out by Tony Gravely, but Gravely is explosive. Sholinian has been inactive (14 months) and showed nothing against Jack Shore, landing only 19 significant strikes. Cody thinks Muñoz can take him down and control him, but he hates the -235 price and may consider Sholinian as a dog.

"I Gotta Go Johnny Munoz to get the job done I feel like he's shown a little bit better improvements"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Liudvik Sholinian

Connor picks Sholinian, believing he can shut down Munoz's wrestling better than Shore did. Munoz is not as deft a wrestling threat as Shore, and Sholinian's aggression and striking volume should carry him. Connor notes that Munoz's boxing is basic and he gets hit often.

"My feeling is that shulinyan will probably be able to, uh, shut down Munoz's wrestling better than he could shore."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Daniel Levi leans Johnny Muñoz Jr., citing his jiu-jitsu black belt and ability to land takedowns. He notes Sholinian is tough but not physically imposing, lacks power and submission threat, and Muñoz should be able to dominate positionally. He passed on betting due to the price (-225).

Passed on betting due to price

"I kind of see just Johnny Munoz just being a little bit more physically imposing... unfortunately I didn't get the price I want so I passed"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Liudvik Sholinian

The host is high on Sholinian as a dog, citing his pressure style, takedown defense (6/8 against Jack Shore), and grit. He notes Muñoz Jr. struggles to land takedowns (4/20 in UFC) and relies on kicks, while Sholinian will stay in his face and outwork him. He expects Sholinian to stuff takedowns and win via decision, possibly with a late finish.

Sholinian by decision

"I like Celine as the dog plus 185 I think is a phenomenal line"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Liudvik Sholinian

Paul picks Sholinian as an underdog, but is hesitant. He notes that Muñoz's only UFC win is over Jamie Simmons, a layup, and he took until the second round to finish him. Sholinian is a big bantamweight and was only taken down twice by Jack Shore, a top British wrestler. Paul added 'Muñoz Jr. under 2.5 takedowns' to his PrizePicks card, thinking Muñoz may not get many takedowns. He is considering Sholinian but will watch weigh-ins.

Johnny Muñoz Jr. under 2.5 takedowns (PrizePicks)

"sholinian for me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Muñoz Jr., citing Sholinian's poor performance against Jack Shaw, who fought with one arm. He notes Muñoz has a decent win over Jamie Simmons and is a big bantamweight with good jiu-jitsu. He predicts a submission finish, specifically a rear-naked choke, continuing his trend.

rear-naked choke submission

"I'm gonna have to go with Johnny Munoz Jr here... I reckon he finds the finish at some point in this fight he's got decent Jiu Jitsu so I'll say renaked choke again two in a row."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Liudvik Sholinian

Zane leans Sholinian because he is more aggressive and has some power, and he may shut down Munoz's wrestling better than Jack Shore did. Munoz's boxing is rudimentary, and Sholinian's pressure could overwhelm him. However, Zane admits it's a coin flip and not a good fight.

"I guess shulinyan for aggression and yeah, I do think he's got some power and when the fight inevitably gets messy, I suppose."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Tony Gravely

KO (punches) R1 1:08 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tony Gravely	0	2 of 7	28%	2 of 7	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	1	5 of 15	33%	6 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Tony Gravely	0	2 of 7	28%	2 of 7	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	1	5 of 15	33%	6 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tony Gravely	2 of 7	28%	0 of 5	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	5 of 15	33%	4 of 12	0 of 0	1 of 3	2 of 11	0 of 0	3 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tony Gravely	2 of 7	28%	0 of 5	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	5 of 15	33%	4 of 12	0 of 0	1 of 3	2 of 11	0 of 0	3 of 4

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

"my gut is saying stick with tony because if nothing else i am positive he's gonna wrestle i'm positive that he'll be on top and he will get a good amount of control"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Muñoz by submission, round 3

"I'm going to take the dog here and johnny munoz jr i'm going to be looking for that sub prop as well"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

"i'm definitely gonna have some tony gravely but the entire time you're gonna be sweating"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

"as a pure pick i'm gonna go with gravley here because i just think he's the better fighter it's just that i know there's this chance that he's gonna be winning the entire fight and [ __ ] it up"

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

"i think tony gravely i think the price makes sense to me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

"tony gravely 30 27 unanimous decision win over johnny munoz"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Jamey Simmons

Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:35 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	0	14 of 71	19%	24 of 85	2 of 3	66%	3	0	2:04
Jamey Simmons	0	7 of 37	18%	10 of 40	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	11 of 56	19%	15 of 62	1 of 2	50%	0	0:32
1	Jamey Simmons	6 of 31	19%	7 of 32	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	3 of 15	20%	9 of 23	1 of 1	100%	3	1:32
2	Jamey Simmons	1 of 6	16%	3 of 8	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	14 of 71	19%	6 of 61	2 of 2	6 of 8	13 of 68	0 of 1	1 of 2
Jamey Simmons	7 of 37	18%	4 of 31	1 of 3	2 of 3	7 of 37	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	11 of 56	19%	5 of 48	2 of 2	4 of 6	11 of 55	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Jamey Simmons	6 of 31	19%	4 of 26	1 of 3	1 of 2	6 of 31	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	3 of 15	20%	1 of 13	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 13	0 of 0	1 of 2
2	Jamey Simmons	1 of 6	16%	0 of 5	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 6	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Angelo picks Muñoz, noting his high ownership on DraftKings (38%). He thinks Muñoz is the better fighter and expects a finish, possibly by submission in round 2 or 3. He mentions Muñoz's smooth transitions on the ground.

Johnny Muñoz round 2 or round 3 submission

"Munoz is one of the higher owned... I think Munoz is a plus one almost everywhere."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Big Brady is very high on Johnny Muñoz Jr., praising his slick BJJ and noting he looked good in his UFC debut despite a point deduction. He believes Muñoz is better everywhere, including striking, and that Jamey Simmons doesn't belong in the UFC. He predicts an early finish, specifically a first-round submission, as Muñoz is a black belt and Simmons is a blue belt who will likely try to grapple.

first round submission

"I'll go Johnny Munoz here and I'll take him to win by first round submission."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Cody picks Muñoz, arguing that his BJJ is elite and that Simmons is not UFC caliber. He notes Muñoz's improved striking and wrestling, and expects a submission win. Cody thinks the price is steep but Muñoz should win.

Muñoz by submission

"sign me up for johnny munoz jr"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Daniel Levi picks Johnny Muñoz Jr., but is sketched out by the wide line. He notes that Muñoz is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and should be able to get a submission, but acknowledges that Jamey Simmons is a former wrestler who could use his wrestling in reverse to keep the fight standing. He thinks the opener was more correct and that there is a path to victory for Simmons, but ultimately leans Muñoz.

"I think Munoz probably gets it done but I'm kind of sketched out by that wide line"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Munoz is a high-level BJJ specialist with a strong grappling background. Simmons is a wrestler who wants to take the fight to the ground, but Munoz is confident in his grappling and can reverse or submit him. If Simmons strikes, Munoz has decent power and can invite takedowns to set up submissions. Munoz should find a submission in round two.

Munoz by submission round 2; inside the distance props; under 2.5 rounds at -125

"I think my official prediction was round two Munoz by submission."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Paul picks Muñoz, citing his BJJ black belt and multiple submission wins. He notes that Simmons has poor durability and was finished quickly by lower-level opponents. Paul expects Muñoz to get the fight to the ground and submit Simmons.

under 2.5 rounds -130

"i'm kind of interested in the under in this fight just based on the fact that it seems like simmons doesn't really have all that"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Muñoz Jr. over Jamey Simmons. He notes that Muñoz's loss to Nate Maness was controversial due to groin shots, and that Muñoz outlanded Maness in significant strikes. He believes Simmons will be hesitant after a first-round KO loss to Giga Chikadze, and that Muñoz has never been finished and has better composure. He predicts Muñoz will win a unanimous decision 29-28.

"i'm gonna go if johnny munoz here i think he's very good both guys are pretty hard to predict for though i think johnny munoz is a little bit more composed"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Nate Maness

Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Aug 01, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Nate Maness	0	49 of 78	62%	129 of 168	2 of 16	12%	1	0	9:42
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	0	21 of 50	42%	158 of 194	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:29

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Nate Maness	19 of 38	50%	51 of 78	1 of 6	16%	0	3:16
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	2 of 15	13%	12 of 25	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Nate Maness	14 of 22	63%	33 of 42	1 of 7	14%	0	2:46
2	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	10 of 18	55%	66 of 78	0 of 0	---	0	0:38
3	Nate Maness	16 of 18	88%	45 of 48	0 of 3	0%	1	3:40
3	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	9 of 17	52%	80 of 91	1 of 1	100%	0	0:51

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Nate Maness	49 of 78	62%	18 of 34	25 of 36	6 of 8	16 of 40	20 of 21	13 of 17
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	21 of 50	42%	9 of 37	12 of 13	0 of 0	7 of 34	14 of 16	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Nate Maness	19 of 38	50%	13 of 25	3 of 8	3 of 5	5 of 20	1 of 1	13 of 17
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	2 of 15	13%	2 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Nate Maness	14 of 22	63%	2 of 5	10 of 15	2 of 2	7 of 14	7 of 8	0 of 0
2	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	10 of 18	55%	6 of 14	4 of 4	0 of 0	5 of 12	5 of 6	0 of 0
3	Nate Maness	16 of 18	88%	3 of 4	12 of 13	1 of 1	4 of 6	12 of 12	0 of 0
3	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	9 of 17	52%	1 of 8	8 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 7	9 of 10	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert picked Jul 28, 2020 (4 days before fight)

Nate Maness

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. The host did not mention Nate Maness vs Johnny Muñoz Jr. at all.

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 29, 2020 (3 days before fight)

The host picks Ray Borg, stating that Borg is a much better grappler and that Maness has not faced high-level competition. He notes that Borg is only 26 and not on the decline, and that Maness will be hesitant to throw bombs due to Borg's takedown threat. He expects Borg to grind out a decision or possibly finish later in the fight. He also mentions the line is a steal and expects it to close higher.

"i'm taking ray borg and i think he could possibly even finish madness later in the fight but i will be on the safe side i'll take him to one by decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2020 (6 days before fight)

Nate Maness

The host picks Ray Borg (Nate Maness's opponent) to win by unanimous decision. He praises Borg's youth (26), grappling, and recent activity, and notes that Maness hasn't fought anyone of Borg's caliber. He believes Borg will grind out a win with takedowns and control, and that Maness lacks the experience against high-level grapplers.

unanimous decision

"i think ray ball grinds this one out for a unanimous decision win getting the job done against nathan meneses"

THE MMA GURU

Expert Picks (6)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

"my gut is saying stick with tony because if nothing else i am positive he's gonna wrestle i'm positive that he'll be on top and he will get a good amount of control"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Muñoz by submission, round 3

"I'm going to take the dog here and johnny munoz jr i'm going to be looking for that sub prop as well"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

"i'm definitely gonna have some tony gravely but the entire time you're gonna be sweating"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

"as a pure pick i'm gonna go with gravley here because i just think he's the better fighter it's just that i know there's this chance that he's gonna be winning the entire fight and [ __ ] it up"

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

"i think tony gravely i think the price makes sense to me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

"tony gravely 30 27 unanimous decision win over johnny munoz"

THE MMA GURU

Tony Gravely

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Career Averages - Tony Gravely

Career Averages - Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Tony Gravely

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Tony Gravely - Fight History

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Expert Picks (6)