Career Averages - Jeff Molina
Career Averages - Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Jeff Molina
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Jeff Molina - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 0 | 56 of 148 | 37% | 129 of 226 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 37 of 112 | 33% | 68 of 146 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 5:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 60 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 20 of 40 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 29 of 80 | 36% | 39 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 16 of 55 | 29% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 56 of 148 | 37% | 43 of 133 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 49 of 139 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 37 of 112 | 33% | 10 of 74 | 17 of 26 | 10 of 12 | 28 of 103 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 14 of 35 | 40% | 11 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 14 of 32 | 43% | 4 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 13 of 33 | 39% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 7 of 25 | 28% | 3 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 29 of 80 | 36% | 25 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 16 of 55 | 29% | 3 of 35 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo describes Jeff Molina as a good striker with volume and kicks, while Zhalgas Zhumagulov is tough with power and chain wrestling. He notes Molina has been taken down multiple times but still won those fights. He leans Molina but warns about Molina's kicks being caught, which could lead to a Zhumagulov decision win.
Big Brady picks Jeff Molina to win by decision. He likes Molina's volume striking (over 8 significant strikes per minute) and well-rounded game, and thinks Molina will outwork Zhumagulov on the feet. He notes that Zhumagulov is a good fighter but has not had success with takedowns in the UFC, and even if he gets them down, Molina is good at getting back up. He expects the fight to stay standing and Molina's volume to be the difference.
Cody picks Molina but is uneasy, noting Molina's volume and potential but also his untested competition. He thinks Molina's future is bright but this fight could be competitive. He is not confident enough to bet heavily.
Daniel Levi leans toward Jeff Molina, citing his high volume and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's ability to make fights close and his experience, but believes Molina's output and takedown defense will be key. He will not lay -185, preferring to watch or take the dog.
Paul picks Zhumagulov as an underdog, citing his experience against tougher competition. He notes Molina's hype may be premature and that Zhumagulov has faced better fighters. He thinks it will be a close decision and sees value in the dog.
The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Molina's height and reach advantage, good takedown defense, and improving skills. He expects Molina to win the first round via grappling, then pick up the pace on the feet in the last two rounds. He doesn't see Zhumagulov bullying Molina and thinks Molina will land kicks and punches at range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 1 | 47 of 62 | 75% | 106 of 131 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 20 of 25 | 80% | 31 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 66 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 18 of 22 | 81% | 29 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 1 | 17 of 22 | 77% | 40 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 47 of 62 | 75% | 39 of 54 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 49 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 20 of 25 | 80% | 7 of 11 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 30 of 40 | 75% | 26 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 34 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 18 of 22 | 81% | 7 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 17 of 22 | 77% | 13 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 15 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Lacerda's forward pressure, kicks, and finishing ability. He notes that all 11 of Lacerda's wins are by stoppage, and while he's making his UFC debut, Angelo believes he's a legit threat. He thinks Molina will invest in body and leg kicks, but Lacerda may not need much time to get the finish. He's not sure about a moneyline bet but likes Lacerda at 7500 in DraftKings.
Big Brady picks the underdog Lacerda, citing Molina's 16% takedown defense as a major red flag. He notes Lacerda's 100% finish rate and brown belt in BJJ, predicting an early submission. He acknowledges limited tape on Lacerda but likes what he saw, and believes Molina's takedown defense is a serious liability.
Cody picks Jeff Molina, but prefers to bet him live after the first round. He notes that Lacerda is a powerful finisher who may win the first round, but Molina has proven cardio and durability. Cody believes Molina can weather the early storm and take over as Lacerda fades. He sees Molina as a lower-tier parlay piece.
Lock picks Molina based on discipline and cardio. He notes Lacerda is wild and has never seen the third round. Molina should weather the early storm and then take over, likely finishing by KO. He likes the under and Molina by KO.
Paul does not pick a winner but likes the under 2.5 rounds or fight doesn't go to decision prop. He notes that Lacerda is an aggressive finisher and Molina is durable, leading to a high-paced fight that likely ends inside the distance. Paul is not confident in either fighter to win outright.
The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina, viewing him as a strong prospect. He criticizes Daniel Lacerda's record and believes Molina's cardio, stand-up, and grappling defense will carry him to a unanimous decision win. He notes Molina trains at Glory MMA with James Krauss.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 0 | 116 of 258 | 44% | 125 of 269 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
| Aoriqileng | 2 | 189 of 356 | 53% | 210 of 378 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 24 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 42 of 93 | 45% | 42 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Aoriqileng | 2 | 44 of 101 | 43% | 45 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 57 of 125 | 45% | 59 of 127 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 127 of 220 | 57% | 130 of 223 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 116 of 258 | 44% | 77 of 214 | 33 of 38 | 6 of 6 | 111 of 248 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Aoriqileng | 189 of 356 | 53% | 167 of 328 | 18 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 178 of 345 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 17 of 40 | 42% | 9 of 31 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 33 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Aoriqileng | 18 of 35 | 51% | 11 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 11 of 28 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 42 of 93 | 45% | 26 of 76 | 13 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aoriqileng | 44 of 101 | 43% | 36 of 90 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 99 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 57 of 125 | 45% | 42 of 107 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 56 of 122 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Aoriqileng | 127 of 220 | 57% | 120 of 213 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 125 of 218 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Up next at flyweight, two Octagon newcomers come to blows as Dana White’s Contender Series signee Molina (8-2, 0-0 UFC) greets Aori (18-7, 0-0 UFC) inside the cage. Overseeing this match is referee Josh Rutgers, and there is an offered but retracted touch of gloves to start things off. Aori comes out firing, with looping punches as Molina retreats. Aori swarms him with a couple hooks, and Molina counters with a left hand on the way in. The American keeps his distance on the outside, swatting away Aori’s reaching punches, but Aori dings him with an overhand right. Molina takes a body kick and comes up short with a right hand, and the two try for hooks that are blocked on either side. Molina chops down the lead leg as Aori stalks him down, and the Chinese fighter throws four punches that Molina ducks until Aori ducks down for a takedown attempt. Molina stuffs it and the fans are already booing the grappling exchange, so they start brawling wildly. Aori tags Molina with a right hand, and Molina lands back but takes the brunt of the exchange. Aori crashes in with an uppercut into a takedown attempt, and this time, he lifts Molina into the air to slam him down. In his foe’s guard, Aori lands a few punches and scrambles around to take Molina’s back when Molina rolls to his knees. Molina ignores this and stands back up, all while Aori is holding on to him from behind. Molina breaks the grip and Aori tags him with a knee that sends his mouthpiece flying. The two are tied up against the fence, with Molina attempting his own takedown as the two jockey for position. The action stalemates until they break, and Rutgers replaces the mouthpiece on the pause. Aori charges at him with a few wide punches, and “El Jefe” blocks the majority of them and comes back with a body kick. Molina tries to keep him at bay with right hands, and Aori ignores them, counters and bullies into the clinch. The horn sounds, and the two are chippy with one another.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Round 2
The two flyweights engage right out of the gate, meeting one another in the center of the cage and throwing down. Aori backs his foe off with a few overhand rights, and he causes Molina to stumble. The Chinese fighter swirls around to take his back, but like the previous round, Molina does not pay attention to this and instead gets back to his feet with ease. The two trade single strikes one after the other, with Molina looking to counter with left hands while Aori loads up on heavy shots. Molina scores a body kick and starts to flick out his jab, and he gets clocked with a right hand when reaching out. Molina takes a kick to the body, and he tries to catch and counter but he comes up short. Molina goes back to his jabs, disrupting the movement but still eating big right hands from Aori. Molina returns fire with a solid one-two, and “The Mongolian Murderer” walks through it to score a heavy right hand. Molina is comfortable from his range with jabs, but Aori is still able to close the distance on him and land shots. A left to the body and right to the head come for Aori, and Molina gathers himself and blasts Aori with a right hand. Aori falls to the ground and springs right back up, so Molina goes after him with a head kick and falls over. Molina hops back up as well, and Aori comes at him throwing leather. Molina jabs out to try to break up a rampaging Aori, but Aori is shrugging them off and rushing forward and leaping in the air with a flying knee. Aori stalks his man down and starts targeting the body, while Molina slaps him once. Aori pours on the pressure as Molina is retreating, and Aori times a right hand that splits the guard. A one-two from Molina comes shortly thereafter, and Aori does not register he has been punched as he lands strikes right back that make Molina nod at him. Molina shoots in low for a takedown, and he is easily rebuffed and stood back up. On the 10-second clapper, Aori blitzes forward with a wild flurry, and Molina catches him with a straight right hand and puts Aori on his backside. Molina dives down to try to finish the job, but there is no time left in the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Molina
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Molina
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Molina
Round 3
The round begins with Aori continuing where he left off, marching his man down, but Molina is on his bike clipping Aori with strikes. Aori loads up on power punches, and Molina catches him with a knee to pause him for a moment. Aori swings wildly with punches, and when he ducks down, he hits a takedown that puts Molina down for a second. The American is able to scramble back up without issue, and the two pick up where they left off. Aori tags him with a right hand, and a left that follows also gets Molina’s attention. Molina sits down on an uppercut, and his jab lands often while Aori is relentlessly pursuing his target. Molina scores a right hand, and a left hand stuns Aori momentarily. Molina chains together a barrage of strikes to make Aori shell up, and he backs off to let Aori reset. Molina flicks out his jab to frustrate Aori, who is practically throwing nothing but power shots. Molina has started to time them; landing jabs and knees up the middle while Aori loads up often. “El Jefe” works the body a few times while Aori is starting to slow, but Aori’s chin is not in question as he absorbs strike after strike. Molina might have finally hurt his opponent with a few strikes, and a knee up the middle catches Aori flush. Molina tattoos his man with crisp combinations, and Aori swings single shots. Molina tees of on him and the tide has thoroughly turned, with Aori’s nose busted up and Molina now the advancing man. Molina continues to land whenever he wants, and a right hand swells up the eye of Aori. Molina eats a body kick to land four punches, and his combinations begin to lengthen as Aori flails wildly. Molina is feeling himself, and he sticks and moves as Aori swings and hits the air. Aori eats a right hand and Molina pays him back with one of his own. Molina scores a standing elbow, and he continues to score repeatedly as Aori is fading fast. With seconds to spare, Aori bites down on his mouthpiece for one final, blistering salvo of punches. "The Mongolian Murderer" hurts Molina, and Molina wobbles back to the fence as Aori is unloading on him. Molina is in the danger zone from a few right hands, and he tries to clinch up and drag Aori down to ride out the rest of the round. The two fall to the ground, and this wild fight is now over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Molina (29-28 Molina)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Molina (29-28 Molina)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Molina (29-27 Molina)
The Official Result
Jeff Molina def. Qileng Aori via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
Big Brady picks Molina to win by submission, citing Molina's good ground game and purple belt in BJJ, training with James Krause. He notes Aoriqileng has been submitted three times and there is limited tape on him. However, he is not confident due to the lack of footage and says he would not bet this fight.
Cody picks Molina, praising his work ethic and improvement. He notes Aoriqileng's aggression but thinks Molina's technical striking and game plan will prevail. He mentions Molina's broken foot in his last fight but expects him to be fully healed. He likes Molina at even money.
Daniel picks Jeff Molina, favoring his better technique and volume over Aoriqileng's physicality and experience. He notes that Aoriqileng's first time fighting outside Asia and the long flight could be a factor. However, he acknowledges the fight is tough to call and that Molina's lack of physicality is a concern.
I like Molina ever so slightly here but with utmost confidence. He's a great striker with submission game, trained by James Krauss, and has shown rapid improvement. Aoriqileng is an unknown with power, but Molina's speed and cardio should give him an edge. I think it goes to decision, and Molina by decision at +190 is a decent play.
Paul picks Molina, citing his technical striking and training at Glory MMA with James Krause. He notes Aoriqileng's wild style and lower level of competition. He thinks Molina's game plan and cardio will be key, and that Aoriqileng's recklessness could leave him open. He likes Molina at even money.
The MMA Guru picks Aoriqileng over Jeff Molina. He notes that Aoriqileng has better experience and has fought better competition, while Molina's Contender Series win was unimpressive. He predicts a competitive decision win for Aoriqileng, 29-28.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 0 | 103 of 287 | 35% | 104 of 291 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 120 of 234 | 51% | 131 of 245 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 0 | 26 of 77 | 33% | 27 of 81 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 25 of 48 | 52% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 0 | 38 of 94 | 40% | 38 of 94 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 51 of 100 | 51% | 51 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Joshua Van | 0 | 39 of 116 | 33% | 39 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 44 of 86 | 51% | 44 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 103 of 287 | 35% | 45 of 201 | 28 of 48 | 30 of 38 | 101 of 281 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 120 of 234 | 51% | 78 of 179 | 29 of 41 | 13 of 14 | 106 of 217 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 26 of 77 | 33% | 10 of 54 | 10 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 25 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 25 of 48 | 52% | 11 of 29 | 11 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 38 of 94 | 40% | 23 of 72 | 7 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 51 of 100 | 51% | 36 of 81 | 10 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 40 of 88 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joshua Van | 39 of 116 | 33% | 12 of 75 | 11 of 20 | 16 of 21 | 38 of 114 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 44 of 86 | 51% | 31 of 69 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 43 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhumagulov (-195), Van (+165)
Round 1
After multiple withdrawals and opponent changes, Zhumagulov (14-8, 1-5 UFC) finally finds himself with a dance partner. In the flyweight division, he will face off against UFC newcomer and Fury FC staple Van (7-1, 0-0 UFC), who lives in Texas but hails from Myanmar. The Kazakhstan-based Zhumagulov has a lifeline after losing three straight fights, but with multiple controversial decision defeats on his ledger, he comes up against a fighter in Van who has never before heard the final bell as a pro. This potentially fast-paced affair will be officiated by referee Andrew Glenn, and it begins with a glove touch. Zhumagulov pushes the pace and flicks out a jab, and Van snaps his head back and gets kicked low with a foot that slides up into his cup. Van adjusts his athletic supporter and does not pause, and Zhumagulov walks after him with a front kick and a few follow-up punches. They trade heavy kicks, and Zhumagulov gives chase with a looping right hand. Zhumagulov digs a left to the body and right to the head, and he hops forward with a left hook. Van counters with a short right, and the two get their jabs going. Zhumagulov slips a right hook, and he kicks the calf in response. Van attacks the body and gets jabbed for his effort, and he snaps one back to shake up Zhumagulov’s new haircut. Van follows a jab with a sharp right hand, and he digs a left straight to the midsection. Van intercepts an advancing Zhumagulov with a leg kick, and Zhumagulov swings his way into a body lock takedown. Van breaks away with a knee to the body, and he slides back as Zhumagulov aims strikes at his torso. Zhumagulov comes up just short on a winging left hook, and he plants a one-two on the side of the head. Van looks to make him pay with a similar combination, and Zhumagulov is right there in front of him throwing hammers. Zhumagulov dips down to sling a left, and he walks through an uppercut to crash through a single and deposit Van to the floor. Van jumps right back up, and Zhumagulov hits a quick mat return. Van once more is able to wall-walk upright again, and they separate and fire off jabs. Both men aim body kicks at the same time, and Zhumagulov misses with a three-punch salvo. The close frame ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
Round 2
The second round begins with the two trading quick strikes, and Zhumagulov starts off with multiple leg kicks. Van marches through them to push out jabs, and he surprises his foe with a one-two in the middle of Zhumagulov’s activity. Zhumagulov chips at him with jabs and leg kicks, and he gets stung with an overhand right but shakes it off. They clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks, and the jab from Van is starting to mark up his opponent. Van follows his jabs with right hands, and Zhumagulov swings back harder with inaccurate blows. The leg kicks from Zhumagulov are connecting, and Van backs him away and brushes his foe’s hair back with a blazing high kick. Van strides into a one-two, and he pushes out a front kick that Zhumagulov catches but not convert into a takedown. Zhumagulov loops a right hand around the guard, and Van whips a high kick at him that slams into the guard. Van duplicates the head kick and rocks Zhumagulov, and he proceeds to unload with a vicious salvo of punches that blasts into Zhumagulov. The Kazakh fighter toughs it out and counters well enough to keep Van honest, and he skirts away, still a little wobbled. Van does not recklessly chase, instead measuring with his jab and one-two, and Zhumagulov is more committed to single power punches. Zhumagulov telegraphs them as Van walks him down, he gets clipped behind the ear with a right hand. Van turns a front kick into a punch combination as Zhumagulov is trying to find his timing. Van eats a low kick, and he backpedals as Zhumagulov gives him the business with several kicks and a sharp uppercut. Zhumagulov wings a right hand that grazes the cheek and opens a cut, and he connects with a heavy leg kick. The two trade furious punches, and Van sends Zhumagulov staggering back. Zhumagulov spins with a back fist that smacks into Van’s chin, and he tries another that misses the mark. Van, seeing this, decides to spin with his own elbow, and the growingly exciting round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van
Round 3
There is a quick glove touch before the two flyweights decide to get right back to action, and they trade punches in a fun exchange. Van leans back from a haymaker to stick out several jabs, and he catches Zhumagulov coming in with straight punches. Zhumagulov still manages to land with his sweeping hook, and Van drives him back with a jab. Van follows a jab with a right hook that shakes Zhumagulov up, but Zhumagulov bites down on his mouthpiece and leaps forward with a left hook. Van’s jab is money, as Zhumagulov spins with a failed back fist in response. Van gets off an oblique kick to change the stance briefly, but Zhumagulov gathers a full head of steam and kicks the lead leg in retaliation. Zhumagulov gets his bell rung with a short stream of punches, and Van is in the driver’s seat as he knocks Zhumagulov’s head around. Zhumagulov throws one or two, while Van strings several together generally. This volume is giving Zhumagulov fits, and Van opens up with a step-in elbow that leads to them closing the distance and bumping their heads together. Zhumagulov protests, and after a moment of confusion, they get back to it. Van keeps coming forward, and he absorbs and shrugs off a left hook to jump at the Kazakh fighter with a jump kick. Zhumagulov lashes out with a few punches, and Van jabs to break it up and throw back a hard right hand. Zhumagulov spins with a back fist, and Van times this to bust Zhumagulov’s nose up with a combination. Van continues to push the pace, flicking out jabs and not missing a beat. Zhumagulov throws back with impunity, missing several looping strikes and others graze off the intended target to little effect. Van times a jab into a huge right hand, and when it misses, he chambers and fires another shorter right that meets the mark. Zhumagulov spins recklessly, and he sinks in a left hand when he recovers. Van stuns his foe with a one-two, and he spins with a wheel kick that misses the hairline. With 15 seconds left in the fight, the two start brawling. Van lands heavy blows, Zhumagulov gives chase and spins several times, only to get popped with sharp punches as he does. The 21-year-old newcomer sticks his tongue out, and after another exchange, the striking battle wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, citing a giant skill gap. He notes Zhalgas has been screwed by judges but should bully the UFC newcomer Joshua Van with his wrestling and pressure. He mentions the line at -185 is expensive for a guy 1-4 in his last five but expects Zhalgas to blow through Van.
Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, believing he is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Joshua Van is only 21 and coming into the UFC too soon, with poor takedown defense. He expects Zhumagulov to wrestle and control the fight, winning a decision. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's deceptive UFC record due to tough competition.
Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his wrestling and grappling advantage. He thinks Van is too young and inexperienced, and that Zhumagulov's pressure will overwhelm him. He mentions the Paddy Pimblett haircut as a good luck charm.
Connor picks Zhumagulov as the far more experienced fighter who has proven in recent fights to be more willing to be crazy and aggressive. He notes that Joshua Van is super raw, only 21 with eight pro fights, and while he has a good foundation, he often gets surprised and doesn't get out of range quickly. Connor thinks Zhumagulov's athleticism and aggression will be too much for the young Van. He also mentions the caveat that Zhumagulov's head may not be in the right place, but against this level of competition, he still expects Zhumagulov to win.
Daniel Levi picks Joshua Van, citing his athleticism, killer instinct, and ability to create finishes. He thinks Zhumagulov is beatable, fights close, and fades. He acknowledges Van's greenness but believes he can bully Zhumagulov. He is taking a shot on the newcomer.
The host picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by dominant decision. He believes Zhumagulov's experience and motivation will be key, and that he will keep the pressure on from the start, landing takedowns and controlling on the mat. He notes Van's lack of experience (only 2.5 years in MMA) and thinks the experience gap will be too much.
Paul picks Zhumagulov, citing his experience and durability. He thinks Van is too green and that Zhumagulov's pressure and wrestling will be too much. He expects a clear win.
The Guru picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, noting that Joshua Van relies on finishes and has only won by finish or been finished. He believes Zhumagulov is very difficult to finish, with only Manel Kape stopping him, and has experience against tough competition. He doubts Van can push a pace for three rounds in his debut, especially since Van was training for a fight in August and may not have ideal cardio.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Zhumagulov. He notes that Van is a low-output flyweight who is competent but not confident in taking the fight to opponents. Zane points out that if Van tries to have a kickboxing match, he won't match Zhumagulov's pace, and if Zhumagulov takes him down, Van may not be able to meaningfully respond. He also mentions the caveat that Zhumagulov's mentality has been getting worse, but he has been getting better as a fighter. Overall, Zane sees a huge experience gap and expects Zhumagulov to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 115 of 209 | 55% | 141 of 237 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 119 of 234 | 50% | 141 of 258 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 46 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 57 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 46 of 77 | 59% | 65 of 98 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 50 of 93 | 53% | 52 of 96 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 30 of 80 | 37% | 30 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 115 of 209 | 55% | 64 of 142 | 41 of 54 | 10 of 13 | 101 of 191 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 119 of 234 | 50% | 36 of 119 | 34 of 62 | 49 of 53 | 112 of 225 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 32 of 60 | 53% | 15 of 34 | 15 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 30 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 43 of 77 | 55% | 10 of 35 | 15 of 23 | 18 of 19 | 40 of 74 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 33 of 56 | 58% | 13 of 30 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 26 of 45 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 46 of 77 | 59% | 15 of 37 | 16 of 24 | 15 of 16 | 43 of 74 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 50 of 93 | 53% | 36 of 78 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 88 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 30 of 80 | 37% | 11 of 47 | 3 of 15 | 16 of 18 | 29 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 0 | 56 of 148 | 37% | 129 of 226 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 37 of 112 | 33% | 68 of 146 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 5:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 60 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 20 of 40 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 29 of 80 | 36% | 39 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 16 of 55 | 29% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 56 of 148 | 37% | 43 of 133 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 49 of 139 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 37 of 112 | 33% | 10 of 74 | 17 of 26 | 10 of 12 | 28 of 103 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 14 of 35 | 40% | 11 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 14 of 32 | 43% | 4 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 13 of 33 | 39% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 7 of 25 | 28% | 3 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 29 of 80 | 36% | 25 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 16 of 55 | 29% | 3 of 35 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo describes Jeff Molina as a good striker with volume and kicks, while Zhalgas Zhumagulov is tough with power and chain wrestling. He notes Molina has been taken down multiple times but still won those fights. He leans Molina but warns about Molina's kicks being caught, which could lead to a Zhumagulov decision win.
Big Brady picks Jeff Molina to win by decision. He likes Molina's volume striking (over 8 significant strikes per minute) and well-rounded game, and thinks Molina will outwork Zhumagulov on the feet. He notes that Zhumagulov is a good fighter but has not had success with takedowns in the UFC, and even if he gets them down, Molina is good at getting back up. He expects the fight to stay standing and Molina's volume to be the difference.
Cody picks Molina but is uneasy, noting Molina's volume and potential but also his untested competition. He thinks Molina's future is bright but this fight could be competitive. He is not confident enough to bet heavily.
Daniel Levi leans toward Jeff Molina, citing his high volume and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's ability to make fights close and his experience, but believes Molina's output and takedown defense will be key. He will not lay -185, preferring to watch or take the dog.
Paul picks Zhumagulov as an underdog, citing his experience against tougher competition. He notes Molina's hype may be premature and that Zhumagulov has faced better fighters. He thinks it will be a close decision and sees value in the dog.
The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Molina's height and reach advantage, good takedown defense, and improving skills. He expects Molina to win the first round via grappling, then pick up the pace on the feet in the last two rounds. He doesn't see Zhumagulov bullying Molina and thinks Molina will land kicks and punches at range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 2 | 53 of 72 | 73% | 54 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 31 of 79 | 39% | 31 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 2 | 53 of 72 | 73% | 54 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 31 of 79 | 39% | 31 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 53 of 72 | 73% | 39 of 56 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 53 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 31 of 79 | 39% | 19 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 31 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 53 of 72 | 73% | 39 of 56 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 53 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 31 of 79 | 39% | 19 of 61 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 31 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
When this flyweight fight ends, one of the two competitors between Kape (16-6, 1-2 UFC) and Zhumagulov (14-5, 1-2 UFC) will likely lift their UFC record to .500 and earn their second victory under the organization’s banner. In this classic battle of Angola vs. Kazakhstan, referee Keith Peterson may have his hands full overseeing what could be a fast-paced contest, but there will be no nonsense allowed while it takes place. Kape is amped up, and Peterson backs him off several times, and there is no sign of respect with a glove touch. Kape leaps out of his corner when the round begins in an attempt to beat Jorge Masvidal’s record, but Zhumagulov sees it come and pushes it away. Kape pops him with a right hand on the way out, but Zhumagulov is not fazed and pressures Kape with a few big punches. As Kape goes low with a kick, Zhumagulov tags him with an overhand right that knocks Kape back to the wall and draws a huge smile on his face. Zhumagulov does not get too aggressive, instead finding his range with an uppercut and a right hand. Zhumagulov trips, but he gathers himself before Kape can take advantage of it. The Kazakh marches Kape down, but he does not do so recklessly into a counter that Kape sets up in the form of a huge right hand. Zhumagulov steps forward with a knee, and he snaps a jab out that surprises Kape. They trade quick punches, and Zhumagulov follows up an exchange with a leg kick. When Kape lands with another kick to the calf, Zhumagulov jumps forward to drill him in the face. Zhumagulov checks one such kick, and he evades the leaping knee that soars at his chin. Kape tries to stick and move, only for Zhumagulov to follow him with a pair of punches that land flush. Zhumagulov swings a kick that collides into the thigh, and he rushes in with a punch salvo that Kape cannot escape in time. Kape lands with a left and a right, only for him to get countered on the way out. Kape continues to connect with leg kicks, and he sits down on a right hand that knocks Zhumagulov to his seat. Kape cannot keep Zhumagulov down, so when Zhumagulov stands, he busts him up with a few big right hands that send him careening to the wall.
Seeing he has his man hurt, Kape opens up with a brutal series of punches to the head and body and tees off on Zhumagulov. Zhumagulov tries to shell up and protect himself from the onslaught, but lightning-quick strikes get through and drop Zhumagulov down to the ground.
Peterson intervenes as soon as Zhumagulov slumps over, and Kape may very well have saved himself from a pink slip with an emphatic knockout over an opponent that had only been finished once in his career, back in 2015.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov R1 4:02 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Zhalgas, liking the odds at +190. He notes Zhalgas is a chain wrestler with relentless pressure, and Manel has a negative striking differential and makes IQ mistakes. Angelo thinks Zhalgas can win via takedowns or cage control, but is nervous about the line moving.
Big Brady picks Manel Kape to win by knockout. He believes Kape is the more skilled and well-rounded fighter, with better striking, wrestling, and BJJ. However, he expresses frustration with Kape's low volume, noting that if Kape would throw more, he could be a serious problem. He thinks Kape's 94% finish rate suggests he will finish Zhumagulov, who has been knocked out before. Brady is confident but not overly so due to Kape's tendency to underperform.
Cody agrees with Paul, not making a pick. He thinks Kape's price is too high given his low output and that Zhumagulov's volume could cause problems. Cody says he can't recommend betting Kape at -250.
Daniel Levi picks Manel Kape to knock out Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He believes Kape has ridiculous speed, movement, and punching power, and that Zhumagulov is small for the weight class and can be bullied. He notes that Zhumagulov is always on the back foot and that Kape can eat his best shots. He thinks Kape will finish him, possibly after working for it.
Jacob picks Zhalgas, placing a plus 3.5 round bet at -110. He notes Zhalgas is intelligent and will time takedowns, and Manel is overconfident and has decision losses. Jacob thinks Zhalgas will find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds.
I lean Kape. He is the more talented striker with power and speed, but his output is a concern. Zhumagulov keeps a decent pace and is durable. I think Kape's power will be the difference, but the fight is likely to go the distance. I like the fight goes to decision prop at minus 165 and Kape by decision at plus 130.
Paul does not make a clear pick, expressing skepticism about Kape's -250 price. He notes Kape's low output and lack of urgency, and that Zhumagulov is a high-volume fighter who could make it close. Paul thinks the line is too high and that Kape might not finish, making it a risky bet.
The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape to win by third-round TKO via knee. He expects a slow first round with clinch work, then Kape's leg kicks and body knees will take effect. In the third, Zhumagulov will be compromised, and Kape will land a fight-ending knee in the clinch, similar to his fight against Matias Nicolau.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Jerome Rivera | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Jerome Rivera | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 10 of 24 | 41% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jerome Rivera | 11 of 40 | 27% | 2 of 27 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 10 of 24 | 41% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jerome Rivera | 11 of 40 | 27% | 2 of 27 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Zhumagulov, citing his toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Zhumagulov will close the distance, get takedowns, and dominate. He notes Rivera is not UFC-level yet and has lost three in a row. However, he warns against betting at -358 odds and suggests the under on rounds.
Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by decision. He thinks Zhumagulov is the better fighter and can mix in takedowns. He notes Rivera has zero takedowns in the UFC and poor takedown accuracy. However, he is concerned about the height and reach disadvantages for Zhumagulov, and thinks the -358 line is too wide. He expects Zhumagulov to close the distance and get the job done, but not without difficulty.
Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his experience and Rivera's poor UFC run. He thinks Zhumagulov's volume and takedowns will be too much. He expects a decision win but also likes the KO prop at +450.
Daniel Levi picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He acknowledges that Zhumagulov has not been impressive and is a small flyweight, but believes he has beaten better competition on the regional scene. He criticizes Jerome Rivera for being timid and lacking confidence, despite having physical advantages. He thinks Zhumagulov will outpoint Rivera to a unanimous decision. He cannot back Rivera to win any UFC fight.
Jacob picks Rivera as an underdog, citing his length and submission threat. He notes Rivera's losses are to top competition and he believes Rivera can keep distance and find a submission. He thinks the -358 on Zhumagulov is too high and likes the plus money on Rivera.
I'm picking Zhumagulov to win, but I'm not confident. He is a point fighter with low finishing ability, and Rivera is a volume striker who could make it close. Rivera has value as a dog, especially by decision. I think Zhumagulov wins a close decision, but I wouldn't parlay him. The over 2.5 rounds is a better bet.
Paul picks Zhumagulov, noting Rivera's poor record and chin issues. He thinks Zhumagulov's experience and durability will prevail. He expects a decision win.
The Guru picks Zhumagulov by 30-27 unanimous decision. He expects both fighters to trade on the feet in the first half of each round, with Rivera possibly having a range advantage. But Zhumagulov will stay patient, then walk Rivera down and take him down against the cage in the second half of each round, landing ground and pound. The Guru compares the takedown style to Alvarez-Poirier. He sees Zhumagulov winning every round with dominant top control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 0 | 68 of 169 | 40% | 94 of 200 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 59 of 132 | 44% | 74 of 150 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 14 of 58 | 24% | 25 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 29 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 31 of 69 | 44% | 32 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 25 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 37 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 68 of 169 | 40% | 40 of 128 | 15 of 24 | 13 of 17 | 64 of 163 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 59 of 132 | 44% | 22 of 84 | 31 of 41 | 6 of 7 | 58 of 128 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 14 of 58 | 24% | 6 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 23 of 39 | 58% | 9 of 24 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 31 of 69 | 44% | 19 of 51 | 5 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 30 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 25 of 56 | 44% | 9 of 34 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 23 of 42 | 54% | 15 of 32 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 11 of 37 | 29% | 4 of 26 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Amir Albazi as an underdog, citing his decent striking and good ground game. He notes Albazi submitted Malcolm Gordon in his UFC debut. He expects a close fight and thinks Albazi will edge it out with takedowns. He is hesitant because Zhumagulov's fights are often close and he could have won his last fight.
Daniel Levi picks Amir Albazi, citing his aggression and forward pressure. He notes Zhumagulov gets bullied and has questionable wins. Levi believes Albazi is the more talented fighter and will win by being more aggressive, though he acknowledges it could be a toss-up.
Albazi is the younger, improving fighter with a strong grappling game. He has shown he can get the fight to the ground and has good jiu-jitsu, as seen in his submission win over Malcolm Gordon. Zhumagulov is primarily a striker who doesn't have great takedown defense and tends to lose early rounds. In a three-round fight, Albazi only needs to win the first two rounds by securing takedowns and controlling top position. I expect Albazi to win via decision.
The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi to win by submission in the first round, but later also mentions a close decision. He notes Albazi is younger, stronger, and more explosive, while Zhumagulov is slowing down. He references Albazi's impressive UFC debut submission and his grappling skills. He believes Zhumagulov's grinding style is not respected by judges, and Albazi's power and takedowns will be key. He also mentions betting on Albazi as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 52 of 121 | 42% | 56 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 66 of 119 | 55% | 73 of 126 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 32 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raulian Paiva | 52 of 121 | 42% | 14 of 71 | 22 of 31 | 16 of 19 | 51 of 119 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 66 of 119 | 55% | 19 of 61 | 17 of 25 | 30 of 33 | 64 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raulian Paiva | 21 of 47 | 44% | 6 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 19 of 41 | 46% | 5 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raulian Paiva | 16 of 40 | 40% | 5 of 23 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 27 of 44 | 61% | 7 of 20 | 9 of 13 | 11 of 11 | 25 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Raulian Paiva | 15 of 34 | 44% | 3 of 18 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 20 of 34 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 2 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.
Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.
Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.
The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo describes Jeff Molina as a good striker with volume and kicks, while Zhalgas Zhumagulov is tough with power and chain wrestling. He notes Molina has been taken down multiple times but still won those fights. He leans Molina but warns about Molina's kicks being caught, which could lead to a Zhumagulov decision win.
Big Brady picks Jeff Molina to win by decision. He likes Molina's volume striking (over 8 significant strikes per minute) and well-rounded game, and thinks Molina will outwork Zhumagulov on the feet. He notes that Zhumagulov is a good fighter but has not had success with takedowns in the UFC, and even if he gets them down, Molina is good at getting back up. He expects the fight to stay standing and Molina's volume to be the difference.
Cody picks Molina but is uneasy, noting Molina's volume and potential but also his untested competition. He thinks Molina's future is bright but this fight could be competitive. He is not confident enough to bet heavily.
Daniel Levi leans toward Jeff Molina, citing his high volume and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's ability to make fights close and his experience, but believes Molina's output and takedown defense will be key. He will not lay -185, preferring to watch or take the dog.
Paul picks Zhumagulov as an underdog, citing his experience against tougher competition. He notes Molina's hype may be premature and that Zhumagulov has faced better fighters. He thinks it will be a close decision and sees value in the dog.
The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Molina's height and reach advantage, good takedown defense, and improving skills. He expects Molina to win the first round via grappling, then pick up the pace on the feet in the last two rounds. He doesn't see Zhumagulov bullying Molina and thinks Molina will land kicks and punches at range.
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