Career Averages - Joe Solecki
Career Averages - Alex da Silva Coelho
Joe Solecki
Alex da Silva Coelho
Joe Solecki - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurullo Aliev | 0 | 35 of 88 | 39% | 81 of 150 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 8:13 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 52 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nurullo Aliev | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 17 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nurullo Aliev | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 35 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nurullo Aliev | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 29 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 30 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurullo Aliev | 35 of 88 | 39% | 29 of 81 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 21 |
| Joe Solecki | 28 of 68 | 41% | 24 of 60 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nurullo Aliev | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Joe Solecki | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nurullo Aliev | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 18 |
| Joe Solecki | 5 of 13 | 38% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nurullo Aliev | 24 of 54 | 44% | 18 of 47 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Solecki | 21 of 51 | 41% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Nurullo Aliev, citing his dominant wrestling and effective jab that sets up takedowns. He notes that Aliev's style is reminiscent of Khabib, though without the same accomplishments. Angelo acknowledges that Aliev's opponent, Yanal Ashmoz (likely Joe Solecki), is well-rounded and has been a successful underdog pick in the past, but he believes Aliev's wrestling will be too much. He expects a straightforward win via takedowns and control leading to a decision.
Big Brady sees this as one of the easiest fights on the card. He expects Aliev to get takedowns and control the fight on the ground, while Solecki is content to be on his back and throw up submission attempts. He notes that Solecki has a history of losing minutes and being taken down, as seen in the Dawson fight. Brady predicts Aliev wins by decision, as he is not a finisher but will dominate positionally.
Cody picks Aliev but with low confidence due to the two-year layoff and inflated line. He notes Solecki's submission threat and Aliev's low volume. He advises passing or using Aliev only in deep parlays, calling it a trap line.
Daniel thinks Aliev's grinding Russian style and takedowns will be too much for Solecki, who pulls guard and has cardio concerns on short notice. He notes Solecki's Jiu-Jitsu is a threat early but will fade. He believes the -600 price is justified and picks Aliev confidently.
Aliev's wrestling-heavy approach will keep him safe against Solecki's BJJ black belt, allowing him to grind out a decision win. He hasn't fought since February 2023 due to a leg injury, but his style should neutralize Solecki's grappling.
Paul picks Aliev but is not confident, citing the layoff and Solecki's grappling. He notes Solecki's one-dimensional style but potential to catch a submission. He prefers to pass on this fight.
The Guru picks Aliev, noting Solecki took the fight on short notice and hasn't been training for a fight (only a grappling match in November). He thinks Aliev is a lot better and will out-grapple Solecki or get a TKO. He suggests there might be value on an Aliev TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 46 of 70 | 65% | 146 of 190 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 13:46 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 34 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 51 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 61 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 46 of 70 | 65% | 39 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 55 |
| Joe Solecki | 12 of 19 | 63% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Joe Solecki | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 17 of 25 | 68% | 15 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 19 |
| Joe Solecki | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 22 of 34 | 64% | 18 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 26 |
| Joe Solecki | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-410), Solecki (+320)
Round 1
The prelims roll on with an interesting stylistic clash of grapplers in the lightweight category. Coming off his first loss since 2016, it will be interesting to see how Dawson (20-2-1, 8-1-1 UFC) rebounds—he smoked Christian Camp in his bounce-back effort after dropping his first fight. Hailing from about 90 minutes southwest of the Prudential Center, Solecki (13-4, 5-2 UFC) will be his adversary, and the crowd roars in approval of their home state fighter. Referee Jason Herzog can scarcely hear himself think, but he starts the fight anyway. Taking a page out of the playbook of Jorge Masvidal, Dawson sprints at Solecki and leaps at him with a flying knee. Solecki plays the matador to let him slide past him, and he drags Dawson down from behind and threatens with a guillotine choke. Dawson resets to break out of the submission setup and takes top position, and Solecki readjusts to lock the choke down and gets a hook around the side. Solecki briefly claims mount with the choke set, and Dawson continues to shift and move until he breaks out of the choke. Dawson keeps tight chest pressure when he resides on top, and Solecki hacks at him from off his back with elbows. Dawson postures up, and he lowers himself down to soften the body up. Solecki defends from anything of merit landing from above, and he carves Dawson open with an elbow. Dawson may hold top position, but he is not winning in practically any of the exchanges. Dawson bleeds down on Solecki and tries to open up on ground-and-pound, and he manages to get off a few elbows of his own. Dawson lands a few more hammerfists and punches, and when the horn sounds, he helps Solecki up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Round 2
Dawson starts off the round aggressively, punching his way into closing the distance. Solecki flails back, but he gets pushed back towards the wall and is forced to defend a takedown. “KGD” easily grounds Solecki, where he lands in the guard and starts to rack up more top control time. Dawson grinds his elbow on the forehead, and as he holds Solecki down, the crowd boos his lackluster approach. Dawson winds up with a powerful elbow, slashing down at Solecki, and he sporadically works with strikes. Dawson finds an opening to land three right hands after a Solecki fails, and he smacks Solecki around from any angle he can find. Solecki is unable to offer any offense of his own, and a submission is nowhere to be found. Dawson cannot pass guard, but he keeps Solecki down and stays just active enough to stave off a Herzog standup. Dawson stands up to drop down a few standing-to-ground punches, and the momentum drives him back into the tie-up. Dawson makes life miserable for the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 3
The lightweights clap hands to open up the final round, and Solecki runs at him and shoots for a single-leg takedown. As Dawson staves it off, Solecki whips a body kick at him, but it is too low and smashes straight into Dawson’s cup. Dawson groans and drops to a knee, and Herzog calls time. Dawson does not take long before he is ready to go again, and he proceeds to drive Solecki to the wall upon restart. Solecki swings, and Dawson ducks and secures a takedown like a hot knife through butter. Dawson does not care to shift to half guard, and he ignores a guillotine setup so he can line up ground strikes. Solecki is stuck with no options, kept with his upper back pressed on the wall and trapped in a position that allows him no offense or escape. Dawson completely nullifies him, but he cannot get any further than the full guard of his foe. Solecki uses a butterfly guard to prevent Dawson from advancing beyond that posture, but he eats three elbows during one exchange. Dawson stands up in an effort to push through the guard, and he rains down punches from on high until leaps into the guard again. “KGD” answers Herzog’s call for action by elbowing and punching Solecki a few times, and the grind has been firmly embraced. Solecki kicks off and gets to his knees with seconds to go, and Dawson nearly knees him illegally in this position. The lackluster fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)
The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Joe Solecki via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Grant Dawson because he believes whoever shoots first will win, and Dawson is more willing to dive at legs immediately. He thinks the jiu-jitsu will cancel out, so wrestling will decide it. He also notes that Dawson's recent knockout loss will make him even more eager to wrestle. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady likes Grant Dawson as a GPP play, expecting him to be lower owned. He highlights Dawson's big wrestling advantage, with takedowns and control time leading to ground strikes. He thinks Dawson could get a late finish in the third round. He sees Dawson's path to victory as a ton of takedowns and control.
Cody picks Dawson, criticizing Solecki's lack of improvement and one-dimensional jiu-jitsu. He notes Solecki's striking and wrestling are poor, and he has not evolved his game. Cody highlights Dawson's wins over Jared Gordon and Mark Madsen, and believes Dawson will take Solecki down and grind him out. He calls Solecki a 'Chase Hooper type' who can't get the fight to the ground.
Daniel is not a Dawson believer, citing his poor striking and chin issues. He notes Solecki is a better striker but lacks confidence and may pull guard. He reluctantly picks Dawson but says it's dog or pass.
The host believes Dawson is better everywhere and will dominate Solecki with relentless wrestling and top control. Solecki's submission threat off his back is overrated, and his striking is rudimentary. Dawson should control the pace and position, winning a decision or possibly finding a finish. The host is confident Dawson bounces back emphatically.
Paul picks Dawson, noting the stylistic matchup favors Dawson's grappling and cardio. He believes Dawson's volume and physicality will overwhelm Solecki, who lacks striking and wrestling. Paul mentions Dawson's only recent loss was a flash KO to Bobby Green, and he expects Dawson to get back on track. He added Dawson to a parlay at -350.
The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, noting that Joe Solecki is coming off a bad KO loss and lacks the ability to inflict pain on the feet. He believes Dawson has better standup and grappling, and that Solecki's jiu-jitsu won't be enough. He predicts Dawson by decision, 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:40 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 9 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drakkar Klose | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:40 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 9 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drakkar Klose | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Joe Solecki | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drakkar Klose | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Joe Solecki | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Solecki as an underdog. He thinks Solecki's grappling and back-taking ability will be key. He notes Klose's takedown defense issues and age (35) coming off a knee injury. He believes Solecki can win the positional battle and control the fight. He calls it a shoey bet.
Lucrative James picks Joe Solecki, emphasizing that Drakkar Klose consistently gives up his back in fights, which is a bad stylistic matchup against a grappler like Solecki. He believes Solecki will take Klose's back and either submit him or win rounds through control. While Klose may have an edge on the feet, Solecki's grappling upside makes him the favorite.
Klose has a solid wrestling and pressure game, and stylistically he has advantages over Solecki in striking and grappling. However, he is returning from an ACL injury at 35 years old, which raises concerns about his knee recovery. Solecki is a BJJ black belt but has shown limited offense off his back and unimpressive striking. Klose is expected to dictate the pace and win a decision, but confidence is tempered due to the injury.
Paul already bet Klose at -120. He thinks Klose has significant advantages on the feet and trains with good partners. He is surprised the line is still playable. He notes Klose's only UFC losses are to Beneil Dariush and David Teymur, and he believes Klose should win.
The MMA Guru picks Drakkar Klose, noting Klose's technical striking, takedown defense, and cardio. He dismisses Joe Solecki's level of competition and believes Klose does the basics better. He expects a close decision, 29-28, in Klose's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 49 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 3 | 0 | 8:51 |
| Carl Deaton III | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 14 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Carl Deaton III | 0 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 35 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:25 |
| Carl Deaton III | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carl Deaton III | 1 of 12 | 8% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carl Deaton III | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joe Solecki | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carl Deaton III | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Solecki. He describes Deaton as having a striking style that is very difficult for him to pull off, with low output and awkward movement. He notes that Solecki is a good wrestler and grappler who will dominate once he gets to his positions.
Zane picks Solecki, stating that Solecki will easily take Deaton down and choke him out. He notes that Deaton's striking is limited and awkward, and that Solecki will have an easy time getting to his positions. He also mentions that Deaton's win over Justin James is not meaningful, as James was on a losing streak.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 33 of 82 | 40% | 91 of 144 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 | 0 | 4:51 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 1 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 54 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 24 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 1 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 2 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 31 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:40 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 27 of 73 | 36% | 36 of 83 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 28 of 65 | 43% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 33 of 82 | 40% | 32 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 35 of 76 | 46% | 20 of 58 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 29 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Joe Solecki | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joe Solecki | 27 of 73 | 36% | 26 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 28 of 65 | 43% | 16 of 50 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 25 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo calls this a very close fight. Joe Solecki is a grappler with clean boxing but lost to more technical strikers. Alex da Silva is a slick striker with power and good wrestling. Angelo notes the odds favor Solecki at -165 but thinks da Silva may have the edge in power and willingness to wrestle first. He is torn but leans da Silva, and considers a +3.5 round buy bet.
Big Brady picks Alex da Silva Coelho to win by decision as an underdog. He thinks da Silva is the better striker and well-rounded, but his main concern is cardio, as da Silva has faded in past fights. He is hoping da Silva has improved his gas tank during his 20-month layoff. He notes that Solecki is a BJJ black belt but da Silva has good grappling and wrestling. He believes da Silva can win the first two rounds and possibly hold on for a decision, but is not overly confident.
Cody picks Solecki, noting his BJJ black belt and wrestling. He thinks da Silva's cardio issues will be exploited and Solecki will take his back. He is confident in Solecki's grappling advantage.
Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing his consistent grappling and fight IQ. He acknowledges Alex da Silva's talent but notes his cardio issues and mental lapses. He sees Solecki as the safer pick but does not see value at -170, so he will not bet it. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
Paul picks Solecki, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes da Silva's tendency to gas and thinks Solecki will take his back and submit him or win a decision. He likes the price and expects Solecki to find a submission in the later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, though his analysis is brief and somewhat incoherent due to illness. He states he doesn't see Alex da Silva Coelho out-grappling Solecki and references Coelho's loss to Yakovlev. He calls Solecki a 'good grappler' and implies he will win, but does not provide a specific method or round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gordon | 0 | 38 of 69 | 55% | 70 of 102 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 6:03 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 51 of 86 | 59% | 83 of 122 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 4:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gordon | 0 | 10 of 10 | 100% | 35 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 2 | Jared Gordon | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 7 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 16 of 16 | 100% | 40 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:38 | |
| 3 | Jared Gordon | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 34 of 69 | 49% | 37 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Gordon | 38 of 69 | 55% | 31 of 62 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 56 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 |
| Joe Solecki | 51 of 86 | 59% | 32 of 60 | 12 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 33 of 68 | 15 of 15 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Gordon | 10 of 10 | 100% | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Joe Solecki | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Gordon | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Solecki | 16 of 16 | 100% | 15 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Jared Gordon | 25 of 56 | 44% | 19 of 50 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Solecki | 34 of 69 | 49% | 17 of 45 | 10 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 30 of 65 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Seemingly in the blink of an eye, we have reached the preliminary headliner, which comes at lightweight between ex-CFFC champ Gordon (17-4, 5-3 UFC) and fellow CFFC vet Solecki (11-2, 3-0 UFC). Someone’s win streak here will come to an end, and referee Dan Miragliotta will be the first person to find out who that will be. There is a respectful touch of gloves to start off the contest, and they are tense and ready to pull the trigger. When Gordon tries to start off the fight with a knee, Solecki quickly takes him down and assumes full mount about 30 seconds into the bout. Gordon tries to kick him off, so Solecki scoots him to the fence and starts to pound on him from above. Solecki sits in a heavy side control, and Gordon responds by walking off the wall. This is not the best strategy, as Solecki gets one hook in and then the other, fully taking the back of “Flash” in a flash. Solecki whacks Gordon on the side of the head a few times to soften him up and open the neck up for submission, and then elects to squeeze with a face crank when that is not there. As Gordon fights off the grip and kicks off the fence, Solecki smacks him upside the head a few times. Solecki wraps his arm around the chin of his opponent, and he switches arms and the forearm slides under the chin briefly. Gordon is able to fight out of it, but he is still being controlled and taking strikes as he rolls around. In these harsh scrambles, both men suffer serious mat burn on their knees and elbows, and Gordon stands up against the fence. Solecki welcomes this by jumping guard with a guillotine choke, and he drags Gordon down to the ground. “Flash” is able to slowly pull his neck free, and he thinks about paying Solecki back with some strikes before choosing to grind his forehead into his foe’s chin instead. Gordon gets off a few short elbows, and ends the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Round 2
The gloves get touched to begin the second round, and Gordon tries to lure a firefight but Solecki grabs hold of him and grounds him 10 seconds into the frame. Gordon springs back to his feet thanks to the wall, and he defends with a guillotine choke as Solecki shoots low with a takedown. Solecki pulls the leg out and gets Gordon down again, but they both pop back up after an exchange. Solecki grinds his foe against the wall, and Gordon tries to gain some space with some snappy elbows. Gordon keeps ringing his opponent’s bell with elbows, and this keeps Solecki from getting him down. Solecki drags him from one side of the cage to the other, and he ties Gordon’s legs up to hit a trip and put “Flash” on the mat. Gordon stays active, and he turns about so that he can put Solecki’s back to the floor. Gordon stays in Solecki’s full guard as he lands a few punches from up close, and he fights off a sweep attempt to keep Solecki grounded. A strike from below cuts Gordon on the top of his head, but he pays it no mind as he works Solecki over and smothers him with top control. Miragliotta asks them to work after a stalemate, and Gordon answers his call with a single heavy elbow before getting pulled back to a tight full guard. Gordon rides this position out to the bell, putting an end to a close and grinding round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Round 3
The last round begins with a glove touch, and this time, Gordon does not succumb to a takedown immediately. Instead, Gordon walks Solecki down and lands a few punches. Solecki tries to go to the body, but Gordon sticks and moves. Solecki does step in with a body kick, but Gordon ignores it so that he can stick his jab in Solecki’s face. Gordon dodges and weaves the counter strikes as he picks and pokes at his opponent, landing a few right hands that get Solecki’s attention. Solecki eats a body kick and ducks out of the way from a couple punches that follow. Gordon sits down on a big punch, and Solecki lets rip a leg kick that makes Gordon pull his leg back quickly. Gordon again tags Solecki with an overhand right, and they bump into one another but Solecki does not try to take the fight down. In a flash, “Flash” shoots in for a takedown of his own, and Solecki stuffs it and gets back to striking range. Gordon again closes in on him to try to drag the fight down, and he trips the leg down to put Solecki on his back briefly. Solecki springs back up, and Gordon lets him get to his feet so that he can land at range. “Flash” triples up on his jab, and he strings together a combination as Solecki is fired up and wants to start trading finally. Solecki uses the strikes to come in close, and they clash heads, opening a large cut on Gordon’s temple that starts to bleed profusely. On the other side, Solecki’s eyebrow towards his nose is split open, and both fight through it without noticing. Gordon walks Solecki down and tries to land a bomb, and Solecki catches him on the way in and tags him with a left. The fight ends with a striking exchange, and it may be a close one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)
The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Joe Solecki via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Joe Solecki, but with hesitation. He notes that Solecki is a very good grappler with clean boxing, while Jared Gordon is a wrestler who may be intimidated to take the fight to the ground due to Solecki's BJJ. However, Gordon has fought higher competition and has better offensive wrestling. Angelo thinks Solecki's path is via submission, but he wouldn't be shocked if Gordon wins by decision. He likes the less less monkey knife fight pick and may bet on Solecki inside the distance with decision no action.
Big Brady picks Jared Gordon to win by decision, siding with the veteran despite liking Joe Solecki's upside. He notes Gordon has never been outgrappled in the UFC and has good takedown defense and grappling himself (brown belt). Solecki is a BJJ black belt with improving striking, but his wins are over lesser competition (Jim Miller, Austin Hubbard, Matt Wyman). Brady thinks Gordon has the striking advantage and more experience, and that Solecki won't find takedowns as easy as against previous opponents. He calls it a tough fight but takes the dog.
Cody picks Gordon as a dog, citing his improved speed and cardio after switching to Sanford MMA. He notes that Gordon has a history of drug abuse but has reinvented himself and looked much better in his last fight. He believes Gordon's pressure, cardio, and grappling will be too much for Solecki, who struggled against Jim Miller's wrestling.
Daniel Levi picks Jared Gordon as an underdog, citing Gordon's heavy top pressure (described as 'Khabib-level' by training partners) and better stand-up technique. He is concerned about Solecki's guard-pulling in his last fight, which could be disastrous against Gordon's top game. Levi acknowledges Solecki's improving hands and submission threat but thinks Gordon's experience and pressure will earn him a split decision.
I have huge conviction on Gordon here. Solecki has been fed favorable matchups against wrestlers with poor jiu-jitsu defense, but Gordon is a different beast. Gordon is a better wrestler, has excellent jiu-jitsu defense, and will push a relentless pace. On the feet, Gordon has a clear edge. I bet 4 units on Gordon moneyline and like Gordon by decision at +250.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gordon as a dog. He notes that Gordon has a significant size advantage and better cardio. He is concerned about Gordon's chin but believes his pressure and grappling will be key. He plans to bet on Gordon after the show.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, noting that Jared Gordon's size advantage will be negated at lightweight. He also questions Gordon's chin, as he has been KO'd multiple times. Solecki has good grappling, as shown in his win over Jim Miller. He predicts Solecki will win by unanimous decision 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 45 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 93 of 146 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 9:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 41 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 | |
| 3 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 11 of 34 | 32% | 7 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Jim Miller | 19 of 42 | 45% | 12 of 33 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 9 of 28 | 32% | 6 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Jim Miller | 16 of 36 | 44% | 10 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joe Solecki | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jim Miller | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joe Solecki | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jim Miller | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
A chasm of experience separates these lightweights tapped to headline the prelims, as fan-favorite Miller (32-15, 1 NC; 21-14, 1 NC UFC) sets the all-time UFC appearance record at 37 by simply stepping in the cage against fellow grappler Solecki (10-2, 2-0 UFC). The Octagon ranger for this key preliminary matchup is referee Herb Dean, and we see a respectful touch of gloves to lead things off. Miller comes out first with a reaching right hand, but it is Solecki that lands first with a quick combination and a slapping leg kick. The two engage in a brief brawl in the center of the cage, and Solecki gets off another kick. Once more there is a clinch battle with a flurry of fists and feet, and Miller takes one on the chin and gets pushed into the fence. Solecki comes up short with an overhand right, but the leg kick scores again. Miller swings wildly with a pair of hooks, and Solecki steps back and takes a sweeping leg kick. Solecki gets off a one-two, and he fires a body kick as he avoids an overhand right counter. Miller comes in with a shovel uppercut, and that and a head kick get blocked. Solecki nails Miller with a right hand, and the longtime vet eats it like a grinder. Solecki again plants his foot on Miller’s torso, and Miller’s reply hits nothing but air. Miller steps in with a leg kick, and a pair of big punches miss the mark as Solecki circles out of danger. Miller wades forward to sneak in a right hand, and when Solecki aims for a takedown, Miller pushes him over and climbs into the full guard. Solecki scoots his way to the fence while Miller is trying to find some offense from on top, and Miller instead uses this angle between the floor and the fence to keep Solecki trapped. Solecki blocks strikes and cannot kick off, as Miller begins to drop down a few punches. Miller continues to grind out his foe in this position, and he lands a few body shots while Solecki holds on tight with all his might. The round ends with Miller on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Round 2
The New Jersey natives touch hands to clock in the second frame, and Miller rushes forward to throw hands. Miller catches Solecki with a left hand as he closes the distance, and Solecki drops down for a single leg as Miller defends it against the fence. As Solecki changes levels to take the fight all the way down, Miller cracks him with a knee but still falls to his back. Miller employs a rubber guard immediately, using his left leg to hook the shoulder for a brief spell. Solecki looks to pass guard but Miller does not allow him to do so, instead dragging his man back as Miller clings on tight. Solecki is unable to mount any offense from above, but Miller appears complacent on his back as he repositions his legs in his guard to open and close it searching for options. Solecki drops down a quartet of punches to the body, and Miller does not want to be flat on his back so he turns to his side. Miller hacks at his man with an elbow, but he is largely nullified by the younger man with top pressure. Miller gets off another elbow and is punched in the face for his effort, as Solecki tries to get off ground-and-pound but is mostly able to strike the side. Dean calls for Solecki to work after several minutes of stalemate, and the round ends in this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Round 3
The last round opens with a Miller leg kick, and Solecki closes the distance to aim for a takedown and get back to the position where he rode out the previous frame. Miller frantically scrambles, and even rolls when Solecki trips his leg out, but he surrenders his back in the process. Miller somersaults to pursue a leglock, and Solecki easily spins around and winds up on top in a better position than the previous frame. Solecki sits in half guard while Miller is stuck on his side, and he holds his shoulder for a potential arm-triangle choke until bailing on it to posture up. Miller once more finds himself stuck without any ability to get up, and Solecki has firmly embraced the grind as precious seconds tick off the clock. Solecki gets warned for inactivity by Dean, and he lands a few punches to the side while Miller once more twists and turns to try to free himself. Solecki pops him with a few left hands, and he drops down a couple elbows as well to stay busy. The half guard position is a successful one for Solecki, delivering sporadic ground-and-pound and trapping Miller completely. This suffocating style is taking the fight out of the veteran, who looks frustrated as he gets punched in the face every so often. Dean once more calls for Solecki to work, and Solecki tries to mount his foe but cannot get his leg free. The younger fighter keeps working with left hands to the side of Miller’s body and face, and this dreadful fight mercifully comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)
The Official Result
Joe Solecki def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Big Brady is very confident in Solecki, ranking him among his top picks on the card. He highlights Solecki's superior grappling, takedown accuracy (62%), and 100% takedown defense, while Miller has poor takedown defense (46%). Brady expects Solecki to take Miller down and control him on the mat, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Miller's guillotine threat but believes Solecki's black belt will keep him safe. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late submission.
Cody passes on this fight, finding the -230 price too high for Solecki. He thinks the grappling is a wash and Miller has better striking. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and fight goes the distance props.
Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing Jim Miller's age and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Solecki has improved his stand-up, as seen in the Austin Hubbard fight, and has a strong jiu-jitsu background. Levi thinks Miller's only path to victory is a first-round knockout, and if Solecki gets past that, he will take over. He also mentions that Solecki trains with John Salter and has a good mindset.
The host is a big believer in Solecki, citing his high-level jiu-jitsu, improving striking, and cardio. He thinks Solecki has the advantage everywhere, especially with Miller's poor takedown defense and tendency to slow down. He picks Solecki to win by decision or late submission, and notes that -235 is a fair price.
Paul also passes, noting Solecki's poor striking and Miller's experience. He thinks the fight will be a grappling match that goes the distance. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and fight goes the distance props.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki by third-round rear-naked choke. He considers Solecki an underrated prospect who submitted Austin Hubbard easily. He notes Jim Miller has been out-grappled recently by Vince Pichel and is aging. He thinks Solecki will wear Miller down with body work against the cage and secure a submission in the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 36 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 36 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 9 of 14 | 64% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 13 of 20 | 65% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 9 of 14 | 64% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 13 of 20 | 65% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Joe Solecki to win by decision. He notes Hubbard has poor takedown defense (40%) and has been taken down by everyone in the UFC. Solecki has good wrestling and is slick on the ground with transitions to the back. On the feet, Hubbard has the advantage, but Brady expects Solecki to go for takedowns early and control the fight, provided his cardio holds up. He mentions Hubbard's win over Max Rohskopf is overrated because Rohskopf had only one round of gas.
Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki to win, citing his high-level jiu-jitsu and control on the ground. He notes that Solecki's takedowns may not be elite but he can get the fight to the mat, and Hubbard has been outgrappled before. Levi acknowledges Hubbard's improved conditioning and volume striking but believes Solecki will get takedowns early, build a lead, and survive the third round. He mentions Solecki's dominant performance against Matt Wyman as evidence.
Solecki has great wrestling and jiu-jitsu, but his cardio and ability to finish are questionable. Hubbard has good leg kicks, cardio, and takedown defense, having survived wrestlers like Marco Madsen. Solecki should grind out a decision if he can maintain top control, but Hubbard's gas tank and striking could make it close. I'm pumping the brakes on Solecki until he proves more.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard, citing his counter-grappling skills and takedown defense as seen in the Mark Madsen fight. He believes Hubbard can avoid submissions and reverse positions, eventually breaking Solecki down for a third-round TKO. He also notes Hubbard's reach advantage and that he should be the favorite.
Alex da Silva Coelho - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 33 of 82 | 40% | 91 of 144 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 | 0 | 4:51 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 1 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 54 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 24 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 1 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 2 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 31 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:40 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 27 of 73 | 36% | 36 of 83 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 28 of 65 | 43% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 33 of 82 | 40% | 32 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 35 of 76 | 46% | 20 of 58 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 29 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Joe Solecki | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joe Solecki | 27 of 73 | 36% | 26 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 28 of 65 | 43% | 16 of 50 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 25 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo calls this a very close fight. Joe Solecki is a grappler with clean boxing but lost to more technical strikers. Alex da Silva is a slick striker with power and good wrestling. Angelo notes the odds favor Solecki at -165 but thinks da Silva may have the edge in power and willingness to wrestle first. He is torn but leans da Silva, and considers a +3.5 round buy bet.
Big Brady picks Alex da Silva Coelho to win by decision as an underdog. He thinks da Silva is the better striker and well-rounded, but his main concern is cardio, as da Silva has faded in past fights. He is hoping da Silva has improved his gas tank during his 20-month layoff. He notes that Solecki is a BJJ black belt but da Silva has good grappling and wrestling. He believes da Silva can win the first two rounds and possibly hold on for a decision, but is not overly confident.
Cody picks Solecki, noting his BJJ black belt and wrestling. He thinks da Silva's cardio issues will be exploited and Solecki will take his back. He is confident in Solecki's grappling advantage.
Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing his consistent grappling and fight IQ. He acknowledges Alex da Silva's talent but notes his cardio issues and mental lapses. He sees Solecki as the safer pick but does not see value at -170, so he will not bet it. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
Paul picks Solecki, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes da Silva's tendency to gas and thinks Solecki will take his back and submit him or win a decision. He likes the price and expects Solecki to find a submission in the later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, though his analysis is brief and somewhat incoherent due to illness. He states he doesn't see Alex da Silva Coelho out-grappling Solecki and references Coelho's loss to Yakovlev. He calls Solecki a 'good grappler' and implies he will win, but does not provide a specific method or round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 67 of 166 | 40% | 86 of 185 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 54 of 112 | 48% | 70 of 133 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Riddell | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 19 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 3:22 | |
| 2 | Brad Riddell | 0 | 25 of 59 | 42% | 37 of 71 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 | |
| 3 | Brad Riddell | 0 | 35 of 89 | 39% | 36 of 90 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Riddell | 67 of 166 | 40% | 47 of 142 | 13 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 61 of 158 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 54 of 112 | 48% | 35 of 91 | 10 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 49 of 105 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Riddell | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 13 of 20 | 65% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Brad Riddell | 25 of 59 | 42% | 16 of 49 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 18 of 43 | 41% | 10 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Riddell | 35 of 89 | 39% | 27 of 78 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 32 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 23 of 49 | 46% | 19 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Riddell, impressed by his hands and pace. He thinks da Silva's competition is weak and that Riddell will out-strike him, forcing bad takedowns and finishing in the third round. He acknowledges da Silva's submission threat but believes Riddell's get-up game is strong.
Daniel Levi leans Brad Riddell because he has been more impressed with his precision, calmness, and improvements in takedown defense. He notes Alex da Silva Coelho has not shown his Muay Thai in the UFC and may not be confident striking. He is not sure about laying -340 but picks Riddell to win.
The host picks Alex da Silva as a live underdog, believing the line on Riddell is too wide. He notes that da Silva has a solid path to victory via grappling and that Riddell's wins are not dominant. He expects a close fight and predicts da Silva wins by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Riddell, emphasizing his experience against high-level UFC competition, including a win over Magomed Mustafaev. He thinks Riddell is one fight away from a ranked opponent and will make a statement with a TKO finish. He notes Alex da Silva has lost to gatekeepers and hasn't jumped that level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 59 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:18 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 88 of 130 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 12:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:18 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 | |
| 2 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 27 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 41 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 | |
| 3 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 31 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 20 of 42 | 47% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Kazula Vargas | 17 of 39 | 43% | 14 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Kazula Vargas | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 6 of 13 | 46% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kazula Vargas | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Alex da Silva Coelho | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kazula Vargas | 5 of 16 | 31% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Yakovlev | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 18 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 10 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Yakovlev | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 | |
| 2 | Alexander Yakovlev | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Yakovlev | 14 of 19 | 73% | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 8 of 19 | 42% | 3 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Yakovlev | 7 of 10 | 70% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Alexander Yakovlev | 7 of 9 | 77% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Alex da Silva Coelho | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo calls this a very close fight. Joe Solecki is a grappler with clean boxing but lost to more technical strikers. Alex da Silva is a slick striker with power and good wrestling. Angelo notes the odds favor Solecki at -165 but thinks da Silva may have the edge in power and willingness to wrestle first. He is torn but leans da Silva, and considers a +3.5 round buy bet.
Big Brady picks Alex da Silva Coelho to win by decision as an underdog. He thinks da Silva is the better striker and well-rounded, but his main concern is cardio, as da Silva has faded in past fights. He is hoping da Silva has improved his gas tank during his 20-month layoff. He notes that Solecki is a BJJ black belt but da Silva has good grappling and wrestling. He believes da Silva can win the first two rounds and possibly hold on for a decision, but is not overly confident.
Cody picks Solecki, noting his BJJ black belt and wrestling. He thinks da Silva's cardio issues will be exploited and Solecki will take his back. He is confident in Solecki's grappling advantage.
Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing his consistent grappling and fight IQ. He acknowledges Alex da Silva's talent but notes his cardio issues and mental lapses. He sees Solecki as the safer pick but does not see value at -170, so he will not bet it. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
Paul picks Solecki, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes da Silva's tendency to gas and thinks Solecki will take his back and submit him or win a decision. He likes the price and expects Solecki to find a submission in the later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, though his analysis is brief and somewhat incoherent due to illness. He states he doesn't see Alex da Silva Coelho out-grappling Solecki and references Coelho's loss to Yakovlev. He calls Solecki a 'good grappler' and implies he will win, but does not provide a specific method or round.
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