vs
-625 +550
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik Next Fight
Age 37
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 32
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Damon Jackson
2.96 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.47 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
2.3 TD Avg
32.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dan Argueta
2.48 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.44 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
4.36 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Damon Jackson
Moneyline
BetRivers -625
KO/TKO
BetRivers +800
Submission
FanDuel +100
Decision
FanDuel +230
Dan Argueta
Moneyline
Caesars +550
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1600
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
DraftKings +900
Damon Jackson - Fight History
LOSS vs Jim Miller
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:44 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-170), Miller (+142)

Round 1
Two vets on the wrong end of 35 will be matched against one another as the prelims carry on. Miller (37-18, 1 NC; 26-17, 1 NC UFC) will be seeking to improve on his UFC-leading win tally, while Jackson (23-7-1, 1 NC; 6-5-1, 1 NC UFC) has regressed to the mean and is a loss away from a .500 record after two stints in the promotion. For as long as it lasts, this one should be a good one, and referee Keith Peterson is on top of the lightweight action as well as the nonsense. There is no glove touch that comes from the elder statesmen, as they want to go after it immediately. Jackson attacks first, connecting with a few power punches to introduce himself. Miller fires back with an overhand right, takes a right to the body and comes back with another clubbing punch. The two clash legs at the same time when kicking, and Miller dings Jackson with an uppercut when defending a single-leg takedown. Jackson pushes Miller to the wire, and chants for “Miller” drown out all other noise in the building. This energizes “A-10,” who breaks out of the clinch and stuffs another takedown to boot. Jackson punches his way into an exchange, and Miller cuts him when firing back. Miller further opens the cut on the eyebrow with a step-in elbow, and he swings a big right hand that is ducked and countered. Jackson tosses out a front kick, and Miller throws back with fire. Another front kick from Jackson gets in, and Miller pressures forward and whips a low kick that lands with a whump. Miller sits down with a left hand that makes both men take a step back, and he is prepared to defend against what comes next. Jackson dives after him, with an ill-advised naked takedown that is stopped in its tracks by a Miller guillotine choke.
Miller jumps guard to complete the submission, and as soon as Jackson hits the mat, he realizes the choke is so deep and so tight that he almost abandons ship immediately. Miller keeps squeezing for all his might, and Jackson decides against going out on his shield and surrenders.
It is the first time that Jackson has ever tapped in his long career, with his previous submission defeat of the technical variety that put him out. The ageless wonder does it again, submitting a man with incredible jiu-jitsu without taking much damage. The crowd goes wild, as the UFC’s all-time winningest fighters adds one more to the total. Miller tells commentator Joe Rogan that there is still tread left on the tires, and says he plans on making it to fight 50 in the UFC. On the other side of the equation—as there is the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat in almost every fight—Jackson removes his gloves and leaves them in the center of the Octagon, not wishing to speak to the crowd to give Miller his time to shine. Shine he did.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson R1 2:44 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson, citing Jackson's striking improvements and wrestling. He believes Jackson will hang in striking, get takedowns, and control on top without being in danger. He notes Jim Miller's age and that his black belt is outdated. He placed a half-unit bet on Jackson at -150.

Angelo bet half a unit on Damon Jackson at -150.
"I threw a half a unit on Damon Jackson at minus5"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady picks Jim Miller by knockout, citing Miller's power and durability versus Jackson's chinny nature. He notes that Jackson gets hurt in every fight and looks like a wounded deer on the feet, while Miller still has power that lasts. He also mentions the return to old gloves, which he believes favors knockouts. He predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Jackson's path via takedowns.

"I'll take Jim Miller to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Damon Jackson, citing Miller's age (41) and recent decline. He notes Miller's only path is an early finish, while Jackson has better durability and cardio. Cody expects Jackson to win a competitive decision, possibly by outworking Miller in the later rounds.

"I'm actually gonna take Damon Jackson for this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller but with hesitation, noting that Jackson's game is 'chancey' and that Miller can still obliterate lower-level opponents. He points out that Jackson's wins are always scrappy and that Miller is a more reliable fighter. However, he acknowledges that Miller's stamina and directional issues could be exploited.

"I do not... I don't know. Damon jackson's game is it's just much more chancey than miller's. Yes. It's always been a thing like, you know, Jackson wins all the time. And so it's easy to we but i've talked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland picks Damon Jackson via decision, expecting Miller to win the first round but fade. He notes Miller's history of fading after round one and Jackson's ability to grind out wins. He acknowledges Miller's early threat but believes Jackson can survive and take over in later rounds. He mentions Miller's recent loss to Bobby Green as evidence of his decline.

decision
"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson via decision here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Vreeland picks Miller as his dog, liking the plus money. He notes Miller is a durable veteran and that Jackson has lost three in a row. Vreeland expects Miller to win by decision, as Jackson is tough to finish.

Jim Miller wins by decision (+400)
"Jim Miller I like... better number too slightly plus 145"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions Vreeland's pick but does not state his own opinion.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Damon Jackson

The host gives Miller a slight striking advantage but believes the fight will be dictated in the grappling realm, where Jackson should utilize his size and strength more effectively to get controlling positions and grind out a decision win.

"I'd give Miller the slight advantage in the Striking I do think it will be dictated in the grappling real and that's where Jackson should be able to utilize this SI and strength a little bit more effectively getting those …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Damon Jackson, noting Miller is on his last legs and Jackson has good enough grappling to avoid being submitted. He expects Jackson to win a decision, possibly by outworking Miller. Paul is not betting the fight but leans Jackson.

"I won't be fading Jim Miller but I will be picking his opponent Damon Jackson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson, expecting him to grapple and grind out a decision. He believes Jackson will take Miller down and hold him there, wearing him out. He notes Jackson's size and grappling ability, and doubts Miller can finish early.

decision win
"Damon Jackson's GNA half guard Camp Jim Miller it's going to happen... I can so see him getting taken down and held down by Damon Jackson"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller despite acknowledging his age and stamina issues. He notes that Miller is still dangerous on the feet and harder to hurt than Jackson, who is hittable and structurally unsound. Zane thinks Miller's power and durability give him an edge, but he is hesitant because Miller tends to fade late and can be out-wrestled.

Odds: Miller opened -145, now +154; Jackson opened +114, now -174. Zane says 'you don't want damon jackson any wider than that over anyone'.
"I'm kind of tempted to pick jim miller here. It is his home division. I think he might feel kind of stronger than damon jackson's uh issues, too."
LOSS vs Chepe Mariscal
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 32 of 49 65% 49 of 72 1 of 5 20% 0 1 4:18
Damon Jackson 0 73 of 100 73% 218 of 267 5 of 7 71% 0 2 8:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 18 of 27 66% 23 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:37
Damon Jackson 0 25 of 37 67% 53 of 69 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:05
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 8 of 12 66% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Damon Jackson 0 29 of 38 76% 94 of 114 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:30
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 6 of 10 60% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:24
Damon Jackson 0 19 of 25 76% 71 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 2 2:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 32 of 49 65% 5 of 16 26 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 15 27 of 34 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 73 of 100 73% 59 of 86 13 of 13 1 of 1 8 of 18 17 of 21 48 of 61
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 18 of 27 66% 3 of 10 15 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 8 15 of 19 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 25 of 37 67% 16 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 9 11 of 14 11 of 14
2 Chepe Mariscal 8 of 12 66% 0 of 2 7 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 10 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 29 of 38 76% 26 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 3 25 of 31
3 Chepe Mariscal 6 of 10 60% 2 of 4 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 5 5 of 5 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 19 of 25 76% 17 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he is the more well-rounded fighter with BJJ, kickboxing, and wrestling credentials, and is a dog who won't break. However, he is hesitant because Chepe is a favorite for the first time, his wins have been close, and Damon Jackson with a new hair transplant has been the best version of himself. He warns not to overexpose on Chepe.

Be careful; do not overly expose
"chpe is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Cody picks Mariscal because he is more durable, has a cast iron chin, judo black belt, trains at altitude with top fighters, and has good takedown defense. He notes Jackson needs to finish early and tends to gas, while Mariscal's forward pressure and volume will wear him down. Cody suggests a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal round three finish (plus 1000)
"chpe Marisol for my money's worth is just the more durable guy I mean when you look at Damon Jackson his best success is when he's able to get these guys down early submit them early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal has a high work rate, good scrambling, and cardio that should overwhelm Jackson as the fight goes on. Jackson is dangerous early with submissions, but if he doesn't finish, Mariscal will take over in rounds two and three. The prediction is Mariscal by decision, with a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal by decision; possible third-round finish
"Jackson will have success early here but given the scrambling ability and just constant work rate of mariscal I think we're going to see Jackson really start to slow down and later on in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul echoes Cody's sentiments, highlighting Mariscal's activity, striking with ill intent, and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Jackson's history of gassing and that Mariscal has the dog in him. Paul also jokes about Jackson's new hair plugs giving him confidence.

"Maris skull's just the more active fighter more busy on the feet lands with a little bit more ill intent the risk of getting taken down controlled is there but we know he's going to be fighting tooth and nail …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The MMA Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, comparing him to a slightly worse Dan Ige. He highlights Mariscal's scrambling ability, pressure, and striking advantage over Damon Jackson. He notes Jackson's grappling threat but believes Mariscal's 'ball of muscle' physique and urgency in scrambles will neutralize it. He also jokes about hairline envy affecting Jackson.

"I'm gonna go with shet mariscal over Damon Jackson... I just think he's levels above him on the feet and he'll keep scrambling with him"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 1 32 of 87 36% 56 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Alexander Hernandez 0 42 of 85 49% 85 of 135 3 of 7 42% 0 0 6:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 27 29% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alexander Hernandez 0 10 of 21 47% 36 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:35
2 Damon Jackson 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 23 of 52 44% 33 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:22
3 Damon Jackson 1 5 of 11 45% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Alexander Hernandez 0 9 of 12 75% 16 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 87 36% 20 of 69 6 of 11 6 of 7 29 of 80 0 of 3 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 42 of 85 49% 20 of 60 10 of 12 12 of 13 30 of 68 11 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 8 of 27 29% 4 of 23 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 10 of 21 47% 3 of 13 2 of 3 5 of 5 8 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 19 of 49 38% 11 of 35 5 of 10 3 of 4 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 23 of 52 44% 13 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7 20 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Damon Jackson 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 2 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 9 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez (147.5: Missed Weight) vs. Damon Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)

Round 1
Serving as the co-headliner is a match previously scheduled at featherweight. Instead, Hernandez (14-7, 6-6 UFC) botched his weight cut and exceeded the limit by a pound and a half on his second attempt. He surrenders a percentage of his purse to Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC; 5-4-1, 1 NC UFC). Both men have struggled as of late, with Hernandez going 1-3 in his last four while Jackson has dropped two in a row. One of these two will get in the win column shortly, if referee Jason Herzog has anything to say about it. Hernandez offers an apologetic glove touch, and the magnificently maned Jackson does not accept it. Jackson prods out a front kick, and he wings a right hand that misses by a wide margin. Hernandez comes back at him with a head kick that is easily blocked, and he whips a kick low at the lead wheel. Jackson throws back his own body kick, and he turns Hernandez with a low kick. They both load up with right hands, and Jackson attacks the calf again. Jackson just misses with a front kick aimed at the jaw, and he catches a lazy kick aimed his direction and grabs hold of the younger man. Jackson grapples Hernandez from behind, getting away with a fence grab as Jackson tries to get a hook in standing. Jackson scores a number of knees to the back of the thigh, until Hernandez explodes and gets away. Hernandez manages to lure Jackson into a brief brawl, and Jackson sits down on a calf kick to again fluster Hernandez. Hernandez keeps a poker face and boxes Jackson in the jaw. Jackson catches the body kick and tries to procure a takedown with it, and he presses Hernandez to the wire. Jackson doggedly pursues a single, and he places “The Great Ape” gingerly on his seat. Jackson looks for offense when he gets there, only to find Hernandez springing back up after all of that hard work. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Jackson begins the round with a head kick attempt, and he bloodies up his foe’s nose during a punch exchange. Jackson surges forward with two punches, and he turns his hips into a kick to the side. Hernandez tries to throw back a few times, but he misses the mark each time. Jackson jabs his way forward, and he hammers the calf with a kick. Jackson keeps doing work on the calf, and they both let loose with big haymaker right hands. Hernandez times a leg kick with an overhand right, and he counters with a solid right hand when Jackson tries to come back at him. Hernandez zips a left hand around the guard, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Hernandez chops at the front leg of his foe, and that reminds Jackson to do the same. Jackson rushes forward with punches, and Hernandez strafes to the side and eats a body kick on the way out. They both swing for the fences, and Jackson’s chin holds up although a cut opens up on the bridge of his nose. Hernandez targets jabs on that bloody spot, and he gets off a calf kick as he backs away. Jackson punches twice and hits a double, putting Hernandez on his side. This results in a stalemate until Jackson springs into action, and when Hernandez stands up, Jackson takes his back and gets a hook in. Jackson slithers his arm around the chin, and he lets it go to slug Hernandez in the chops repeatedly. The round ends as Jackson is pounding on him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
Jackson only needs a few seconds before delivering a fierce leg kick. When he throws a second, Hernandez times it and rifles a right hand straight down the middle. Jackson goes down like a sack of bricks, and Hernandez leaps on top of him and starts hunting for a choke. Jackson scrambles to get out of the initial danger, and Hernandez climbs into full mount and squeezes down with an arm-triangle choke. Jackson turns all the way around and fights back to his feet, and Hernandez charges at him throwing bombs. Jackson uses that momentum to turn the corner and pursue a takedown, and “The Great Ape” digs in his heels and does not hit the mat. Hernandez considers going for an ankle pick, and Jackson kicks off the cage and manages to take Hernandez’ back. Hernandez gets flattened out as Jackson starts working him with fists, until he powers back to his feet and tries to buck Jackson off of him. Jackson keeps tight and hangs on until Hernandez manages to work him off. Jackson turns through and goes for a single, dropping down to his knees to complete it. Jackson grinds on the younger fighter when he cannot complete the takedown, and they jockey for position against the cage. They turn one another around without gaining an advantage or landing much of note. Jackson sticks his tongue out, and he lands several elbows and punches to separate right before the horn sounds. Scores could be all over the map.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Alexander Hernandez via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.

"very low pick on Alexander Hernandez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.

win by first round KO
"Hernandez ko1 for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.

"Alexander Hernandez gets the job done and takes him out in the first seven and a half minutes... but it's a dodgy proposition"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.

"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.

Hernandez by KO; under 2.5 rounds
"I expect that to produce a Hernandez knockout but what I'm going to be looking to hone in on is the under two and a half which isus 170 a little bit chalky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.

"I am going with Alexander Hernandez... he just seems maybe not the better fighter but just the better athlete"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.

"I think I'm going to go with the younger guy in Alexander Hernandez here he's got reach he has got good initial takedown defense"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Quarantillo 0 100 of 188 53% 169 of 270 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:51
Damon Jackson 0 67 of 173 38% 75 of 184 3 of 13 23% 0 0 6:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Quarantillo 0 15 of 35 42% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 28 of 62 45% 34 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:13
2 Billy Quarantillo 0 40 of 69 57% 58 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Damon Jackson 0 13 of 48 27% 15 of 50 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:18
3 Billy Quarantillo 0 45 of 84 53% 77 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Damon Jackson 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 64 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Quarantillo 100 of 188 53% 45 of 124 49 of 57 6 of 7 58 of 140 42 of 48 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 67 of 173 38% 45 of 139 19 of 31 3 of 3 53 of 148 10 of 15 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Quarantillo 15 of 35 42% 8 of 27 5 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 28 of 62 45% 19 of 48 8 of 13 1 of 1 23 of 52 1 of 2 4 of 8
2 Billy Quarantillo 40 of 69 57% 8 of 32 28 of 33 4 of 4 16 of 41 24 of 28 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 13 of 48 27% 5 of 36 7 of 11 1 of 1 6 of 38 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Billy Quarantillo 45 of 84 53% 29 of 65 16 of 18 0 of 1 31 of 68 14 of 16 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 26 of 63 41% 21 of 55 4 of 7 1 of 1 24 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant, noting that two years ago Billy would be a lock. He highlights Billy's high volume striking (8 significant strikes per minute) and BJJ, but is concerned about his recent KO loss and takedown defense (58%). He thinks Billy needs to keep the jab in Damon's face to prevent clean shots and defend takedowns. He acknowledges Damon Jackson is dangerous and on a good run before his loss to Dan Ige.

"Billy is ultimately gonna be the pick here but I'm gonna need him to throw out a ton of volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady likes Quarantillo's high volume (8 significant strikes per minute) and power. He thinks Jackson's chin is questionable (all 5 losses by finish, 4 by KO). He expects Quarantillo to pressure Jackson, and even if taken down, Quarantillo will make Jackson work and slow him down. He predicts a late second-round KO.

Quarantillo by KO in round 2
"I like Billy Q to break Damon Jackson and give Damon Jackson his sixth finish loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his volume, cardio, durability, and BJJ. He notes Jackson's low output and tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Quarantillo will wear Jackson down and win a decision or late finish. He also likes the over 72.5 significant strikes prop for Quarantillo.

Quarantillo over 72.5 significant strikes
"quaranteo over 72.5 significant strikes on prize picks uh looks right for the taking to me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Quarantillo is a comeback fighter who often loses the first round, and that Jackson is a dangerous submission artist who could finish early. Levi believes Quarantillo's durability and late-round pressure will be key, and that he can survive Jackson's early grappling to win rounds two and three. He dislikes laying -175 on a comeback fighter but picks Quarantillo as a pure pick.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action is conflicting.
"I'm picking Billy Q."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

James sees value on Damon Jackson. He notes Quarantillo gets taken down often and puts himself in submission attempts, though he's good at escaping. Jackson has good cardio and can take Quarantillo down to stop his rhythm. James thinks Jackson can win but acknowledges Quarantillo's late-round pace could overtake him.

"I think there's some value on Damon Jackson... I'm gonna pick him outright to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a strong grappler who can control the fight on the ground. Quarantillo usually gives up the first round and relies on cardio, but Jackson's wrestling should be enough to win rounds early and survive Quarantillo's third-round surge. I was surprised to see Jackson around +150 to +160; I think he's the better wrestler and will win by decision.

odds comment: surprised to see Jackson around +150/+160
"I was kind of surprised to see Jackson around that plus 150 plus 160 range I think he's deciding this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo's durability and cardio advantage. He believes Jackson's only path is an early knockout, but if it goes past the first round, Quarantillo's pace will be too much. He suggests a live bet on Quarantillo after the first round.

"in a war of attrition Billy Q generally wins and uh and I think he's gonna do that here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The host leans Billy Quarantillo, citing his striking edge and well-roundedness. He notes Quarantillo has never been submitted, which is key against Jackson's submission-heavy style. He thinks Jackson needs a finish to win, while Quarantillo can win a decision. However, he is not crazy about the -185 line and suggests waiting for it to drop to -170 or -175.

line movement from -178 to -185; suggests value on Damon Jackson if odds reach +165 or +170
"I will lean Billy Q to get the job done here"
LOSS vs Dan Ige
KO (punch) R2 4:13 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 34 of 74 45% 40 of 81 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Damon Jackson 0 36 of 100 36% 38 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 21 of 45 46% 26 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Damon Jackson 0 13 of 45 28% 13 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Dan Ige 1 13 of 29 44% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Damon Jackson 0 23 of 55 41% 25 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 34 of 74 45% 17 of 54 13 of 15 4 of 5 28 of 65 6 of 9 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 36 of 100 36% 22 of 81 10 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 92 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 21 of 45 46% 13 of 34 6 of 8 2 of 3 15 of 37 6 of 8 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 13 of 45 28% 7 of 37 4 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dan Ige 13 of 29 44% 4 of 20 7 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 23 of 55 41% 15 of 44 6 of 9 2 of 2 21 of 50 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Dan Ige's tough competition but Jackson's relentless grappling and recent win streak. He mentions Jackson's takedowns and pressure could be key, but Ige's striking and durability make it close. He respects Jackson's run and picks him until he loses.

"I'm gonna respect the run that Damon Jackson is on ... I'm gonna pick him for this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady is confident in Dan Ige, viewing this as a massive step down in competition for Ige after facing top-10 opponents. He believes Ige has a clear striking advantage and power to finish, noting that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses. He expects Ige to land a body shot knockout in the second round, as Jackson's striking defense is poor and he leaves openings to the body. He also mentions that Ige's takedown defense is adequate and that Jackson's path to victory via grappling is unlikely.

Ige by second round knockout
"I like ige here I like him to knock out Damon Jackson probably a nice body shot there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody agrees with Ige, emphasizing his durability and striking advantage. He notes Jackson's low output and that Ige has fought much tougher competition. He expects Ige to pressure forward and land big shots, while Jackson needs early takedowns to win.

"ige is insanely insanely durable he's going the full 15 against some of the best in the division and I think if this fight stays on the feet it's not even remotely competitive"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige because he is a technically better fighter almost everywhere, with notable durability and a good chin. He notes that Ige has shown continual improvement in his striking and counter-punching, and that Jackson's chaotic style often leaves him open to being hurt. Connor also points out that Ige is well-rounded and has matured, avoiding the second-round fatigue that plagued him earlier in his career.

Odds: Ige opened +140, dropped to -112, currently -121. Jackson opened -160, jumped to -108, currently -101. Connor notes the odds are nearly even despite Ige's tougher competition.
"I'm picking you, Gay, but I'm interested. I'm interested to see this because David Jackson. David Jackson hasn't earned the fight either."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jacob picks Damon Jackson despite bias against him for beating Pat Sabatini. He acknowledges Dan Ige is the better overall fighter but respects Jackson's run. He notes Jackson's grappling and toughness, and Ige's durability. He is not betting on the fight due to closeness.

"I'm going Damon Jackson"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul picks Ige, noting his durability and experience against elite competition (Korean Zombie, Josh Emmett). He believes Ige's striking volume and wrestling will outwork Jackson, who has shown low output and reliance on takedowns. He parlayed Ige with Umar and Rębecki at +167.

Parlayed with Umar and Rębecki at +167
"I'm gonna take the shot on 50K Danny yeah I already did take the shot on uh Danny guy I parlayed him with uh cousin Umar and uh Rebecca"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Zane picks Ige because he is a well-rounded fighter with good durability and has shown improvements in his striking. He notes that Jackson's chaotic style can create opportunities but Ige's experience against top competition and his ability to handle tough fights make him the safer pick. Zane also mentions that Ige's past conditioning issues seem to have been resolved.

Odds: Ige opened +140, dropped to -112, currently -121. Jackson opened -160, jumped to -108, currently -101. Zane thinks Ige should be a healthy favorite.
"I think he is really matured and gotten really comfortable in the cage no matter what happens. So easy Danny Gay pick in a fight that nonetheless I think is reasonably compelling for what it is."
WIN vs Pat Sabatini
TKO (punches) R1 1:09 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-180), Jackson (+155)

Round 1
A pair of surging featherweights are on deck to provide what should be a scintillating clash of grappling styles. With 25 combined submissions between the two, any ground exchanges should be worth watching. Responsible for 15 of those tapouts/chokeouts is “The Leech” Jackson (21-4-1, 1 NC; 4-2-1, 1 NC UFC), while Renzo Gracie Philly rep Sabatini (17-3, 4-0 UFC) posts the other 10. This will be an emotional affair, as Jackson's brother passed away earlier this week. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to step in at a moment’s notice should nonsense materialize out of thin air, and there is no need of a glove touch as these two want to get after it. The first 30 seconds lead to nothing, and out of nowhere, Jackson fires off a front kick to the chin that stuns Sabatini. Sabatini lunges forward, and Jackson turns him about and throws him on his back. Jackson begins to pound on him with his fists, and Sabatini is in a bad way.
Jackson allows Sabatini to give up his back so that he can climb aboard and drop hammers. Sabatini shells up, flattened out on his stomach, and Jackson continues to bombard him with unanswered punches to the side of the head. The blows are fierce and furious, and Jackson does not slow down until Sabatini cries out and Peterson steps in to call a halt to the match.
Jackson climbs off his fallen foe, and he goes over to his corner and collapses to his knees and breaks down in tears. It is an emotional moment for Jackson and his family in the crowd, as he fights to honor his fallen brother.

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:09 via TKO (Submission to Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Sabatini, citing his superior wrestling and pure grappling. He notes that Sabatini has technical striking and controls range well, but his main path is through takedowns and top control. Angelo worries about Jackson's pressure but believes Sabatini's grappling will prevail. He is surprised the line has tightened.

"pat is the pick uh he's got the better wrestling the better pure grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win inside the distance, but acknowledges it's a tough fight to call. He notes that both fighters are similar—BJJ black belts with wrestling backgrounds and mediocre striking. Brady gives the edge to Sabatini due to his youth, power on the feet, and training at Renzo Gracie Philly (which has a 15-0 or 16-0 UFC record). He also points out that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses (three by KO). Brady predicts Sabatini will hurt Jackson on the feet and then submit him.

inside the distance
"i'm gonna take pat sabatini to win i'm gonna say he catches damage jackson i'm gonna say he um hurts him on the feet and and submits him here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody thinks Jackson's BJJ black belt and striking advantage will trouble Sabatini, who is one-dimensional. He notes Sabatini struggles when takedowns are stuffed and Jackson can make it ugly on the feet. Cody calls it a potential apple pie (underdog pick).

"i'm sniffing this one as my first potential apple pie i'll just avoid sabatini if anything"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, trusting his wrestling and submission game to win rounds. He views Sabatini as a reliable round-winner despite low output, while Jackson can be slowed down and give up positions. He thinks Sabatini is more likely to seal rounds with late takedowns. He does not bet due to the price.

"I trust sabatini more to be the guy who hits that last takedown to get the judge's attention and and just seal it off on the judge's scorecards"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Jacob is a big fan of Sabatini, calling him 'my dude' and noting his 4-0 lock of the week record. He praises Sabatini's control on the ground and his ability to keep opponents against the cage. Jacob worries about Sabatini's striking improvements but believes his grappling will dominate. He jumped on the -200 line and may double down.

"my dude absolutely is past 17. i was actually surprised he was even a minus 200"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is the best grappler Sabatini has faced; once it hits the mat, it's a 50-50 fight. Sabatini may be the better wrestler but Jackson has high-level Jiu-Jitsu and experience against tough competition. Jackson's ability to reverse and get back to his feet will be key. The line should be closer to a pick'em, so Jackson at plus money is worth a shot. I see Jackson winning a decision.

"Damon Jackson has way better of a chance than that this fight in my opinion should be closer to a pickum that's how I'm gonna go with the underdog here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul leans Jackson, noting Sabatini's lack of striking and that Jackson can stuff takedowns. He admits he hasn't been a Jackson guy historically but sees a path. He's not very confident.

"i'll lean towards the underdog in jackson with you um which you know historically will probably mean that uh that sabatini's gonna absolutely roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by submission in the third round. He notes Damon Jackson often wins by barely doing enough and has trouble with shorter opponents, as seen against Daniel Argueta. He believes Sabatini's jiu-jitsu and shorter stocky frame will cause problems, and that Sabatini is younger and closer to his prime. He expects Sabatini to get a submission win.

submission in the third round
"i'm gonna go with pat sabatini in this fight by submission in the third round"
WIN vs Dan Argueta
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 32 of 53 60% 47 of 71 2 of 4 50% 1 1 10:25
Dan Argueta 0 27 of 59 45% 103 of 141 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:14
Dan Argueta 0 0 of 0 --- 33 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:42
2 Damon Jackson 0 9 of 10 90% 14 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:58
Dan Argueta 0 5 of 11 45% 27 of 37 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
3 Damon Jackson 0 23 of 43 53% 32 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Dan Argueta 0 22 of 48 45% 43 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 53 60% 23 of 44 6 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 40 5 of 5 8 of 8
Dan Argueta 27 of 59 45% 24 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 42 10 of 15 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Argueta 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 9 of 10 90% 7 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 5
Dan Argueta 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 2
3 Damon Jackson 23 of 43 53% 16 of 36 4 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 37 3 of 3 3 of 3
Dan Argueta 22 of 48 45% 19 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 38 7 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.

moneyline bet on Argueta, plus 3.5 round buy (buying points on judge's scorecard)
"i like argued in this fight because of that game plan i think just coming forward and shooting is is going to get damon jackson now worrying about defending takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.

Jackson by submission, round 3
"I like damon jackson here quite a bit um and i like him to win by a late finish i think he kind of breaks argetta"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.

"i gotta go jackson for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.

Jackson inside distance -145
"you cannot lay minus 600 on damon jackson but i will pick him to win this fight ufc experience and size will be the will be the keys here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Jackson, citing his experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes Argueta's short notice, weight class move, and recent five-round war. He thinks Jackson's grappling and striking are superior and expects a finish or dominant decision.

"this should be his fight to win and i think he can win in a multitude of ways"
WIN vs Kamuela Kirk
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 4:42 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 32 of 78 41% 51 of 102 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:37
Kamuela Kirk 0 22 of 54 40% 60 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 31 of 77 40% 36 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:59
Kamuela Kirk 0 22 of 53 41% 23 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Damon Jackson 0 1 of 1 100% 15 of 20 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:38
Kamuela Kirk 0 0 of 1 0% 37 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 78 41% 22 of 61 9 of 16 1 of 1 27 of 68 2 of 2 3 of 8
Kamuela Kirk 22 of 54 40% 14 of 43 5 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 49 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 31 of 77 40% 21 of 60 9 of 16 1 of 1 26 of 67 2 of 2 3 of 8
Kamuela Kirk 22 of 53 41% 14 of 42 5 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 48 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson but is worried about his chin. He notes that Jackson is the better offensive wrestler and more technical striker, but Kirk has more power and Jackson can be chinny. He hopes Jackson sticks to a grapple-heavy game plan, similar to how Amira Connelly took Kirk down five times. He calls it a worrisome pick and says he wouldn't bet heavily on it.

"i am going to take a chance i'm going with damon jackson here and i just hope he's diving at legs that whole time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by second-round submission. He highlights Jackson's relentless pace and cardio, which he believes will break Kirk as the fight goes on, similar to what Billy Quarantillo did. He notes Jackson's 90% finish rate and that he has never lost a decision, but also has a questionable chin. He thinks Kirk could win inside the distance but expects Jackson to finish him in the second or third round.

second round submission
"i'm gonna take damon jackson to win i'm gonna take him to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Cody leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.

"i'm leaning towards kamala kirk"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Daniel Levi leans with Kamuela Kirk, citing that Kirk is the younger, hungrier fighter and that Damon Jackson has vulnerabilities, including being dropped and cut. He thinks Kirk's cardio issues from the Billy Q fight won't be as pronounced because Jackson doesn't push a high pace. Levi expects a close, back-and-forth fight but sees Kirk out-hustling down the stretch.

"i'm going to lean with the younger hungrier guy to to just kind of out hustle down the stretch"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a pressure grappler with good cardio and top control. He will look to take Kirk down and grind him out. Kirk is a well-rounded fighter but may struggle with Jackson's relentless wrestling. Jackson is predicted to win via decision, with the decision line at plus 205 noted.

Jackson via decision at plus 205 is the official prediction.
"I'm going to go Damon Jackson. I do think that this will be quite a back and forth fight. ... I see Jackson kind of controlling him for the majority of this fight and winning it via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Paul leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.

"i'm leaning towards kamala kirk"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

The MMA Guru picks Kamuela Kirk as an underdog over Damon Jackson, going against the majority. He highlights Kirk's ground game off his back, including a triangle choke, and a massive stand-up advantage. He notes that Kirk worked off the bottom against Makwan Amirkhani and didn't let him pass guard. He believes Kirk will out-hustle Jackson in a close decision, with damage favoring Kirk over Jackson's control time.

decision 29-28
"i'm going with kamuela kirk i'm going against the online experts again here i'm going with cameuela kirk i think he's got a really good ground game on bottom"
Dan Argueta - Fight History
LOSS vs Cody Haddon
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Haddon 0 54 of 140 38% 65 of 151 4 of 24 16% 1 0 4:23
Dan Argueta 0 140 of 280 50% 148 of 288 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Haddon 0 16 of 43 37% 18 of 45 1 of 9 11% 1 0 1:50
Dan Argueta 0 45 of 95 47% 46 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
2 Cody Haddon 0 11 of 33 33% 20 of 42 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:51
Dan Argueta 0 31 of 64 48% 37 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:00
3 Cody Haddon 0 27 of 64 42% 27 of 64 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:42
Dan Argueta 0 64 of 121 52% 65 of 122 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Haddon 54 of 140 38% 34 of 114 13 of 19 7 of 7 42 of 114 9 of 18 3 of 8
Dan Argueta 140 of 280 50% 100 of 232 38 of 46 2 of 2 130 of 268 10 of 11 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Haddon 16 of 43 37% 10 of 35 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 36 3 of 7 0 of 0
Dan Argueta 45 of 95 47% 35 of 82 9 of 12 1 of 1 44 of 94 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cody Haddon 11 of 33 33% 8 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 25 1 of 3 2 of 5
Dan Argueta 31 of 64 48% 20 of 52 11 of 12 0 of 0 29 of 60 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Cody Haddon 27 of 64 42% 16 of 50 7 of 10 4 of 4 21 of 53 5 of 8 1 of 3
Dan Argueta 64 of 121 52% 45 of 98 18 of 22 1 of 1 57 of 114 7 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dan Argueta (138.5: Missed Weight) vs. Cody Haddon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Haddon (-185), Argueta (+154)

Round 1
Shifting gears to what was supposed to be a bantamweight contest, Argueta (9-2, 2 NC; 1-2, 2 NC UFC) failed to make weight and surrendered 20% of his purse to Australian debutant Haddon (7-1, 0-0 UFC). The 139-pound catchweight contest will be overseen by referee Jason Herzog, who clocks the fighters in as there is no plan for a glove tough. It takes the fighters mere seconds to get after it, with Argueta hoping to impose his will by getting right in Haddon’s face throwing hands. Haddon obliges the slugfest, and they swing for the fences early. As Argueta lands cleanly, he sets up a takedown perfectly, stripping Haddon’s legs out and putting him on his seat. Haddon slowly, calmly works his way up, and he engages further with the heavy American. Argueta tags his man on the temple with a right hand, and he crashes forward to change levels. Haddon turns to lean against the fencing to remain upright, and Argueta wrenches him down to his knees momentarily. Haddon climbs back upright using the wall to force his way up, and Argueta is doggedly determined to get him down. Haddon wants nothing to do with it, and he opens up with a long combination of punches as Argueta swings his way into level changes. Haddon clips Argueta with a left hand, forcing Argueta to shoot in deep. Haddon defends the attempt and snaps off several sharp jabs and leg kicks to back Argueta up against the fence. Argueta loads up on power strikes, and he stumbles Haddon with an overhand right. Haddon shakes it off and comes back with clubbing strikes that sting Argueta. Argueta lands cleanly and jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and Haddon squirms his way free and stands up. They resume their ill-advised strategy of standing and banging, and Haddon picks his shots carefully to rip a left to the body and a right to the head. Haddon rings Argueta’s bell, meeting Argueta’s attempts to take the fight down with crisp uppercuts. Haddon shoves Argueta against the wall to knee him with big blows, and Argueta works his way out but cannot dodge the jabs coming en masse. Argueta slips one and counters with a right hand over the top, and the two are simply hammering each other with no regard to conditioning. The frenetic-paced round ends with both men throwing hands.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Haddon

Round 2
It is right back to the races for these fighters, who continue to fight as if the match is five minutes long. Haddon is the more accurate of the two but by no means avoiding power strikes hurled back his direction. A glancing right hand from Argueta opens a cut on the hairline of the Australian, and he pays it no mind as he strikes his way into a takedown. “The Determined” is filled with determination, muscling his way back to his feet, turning Haddon around and depositing him on his back. Argueta starts to get some ground-and-pound going while Haddon looks for a kimura sweep or other kind of escape. As Haddon looks to work his way up, Argueta stays on him, never allowing the newcomer a moment to breathe or reset. Haddon stands, and Argueta lifts him up from behind to drop him to his hands. Argueta lifts Haddon up with a mighty single and throws him to the mat, but Haddon is a man possessed and he wants to keep trading. Exploding back to striking range, Haddon pays his man back with a series of punches. Argueta dives low for a takedown, and Haddon blasts him in the face with a knee that is about as clean as it can be. Argueta somehow tanks it, and he goes after a takedown that transitions into a low-percentage front choke. Haddon shucks out of it and clubs Argueta with combinations. Argueta aims several to the body, and Haddon gives him a knee back to the chest to think about. A solid leg kick from Argueta sweeps the leg, and Haddon frowns and lines up a right hand to stun Argueta. With Argueta backed against the wall, Haddon comes at him with fists and a knee before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Haddon

Round 3
When the round begins, Argueta slugs Haddon in the face with a huge left hand. Haddon does not even blink, instead releasing his own heavy right hand that slams into the side of Argueta’s melon. The two batter one another with power blows, and Haddon flicks out two jabs, uses his head movement to dodge the counters and stonewalls a takedown. Haddon spins with a back fist that bounces off the raised guard, and Argueta says “two can play that game” and answers with a spinning back elbow that partially connects. Argueta lumbers forward, flailing big strikes, and Haddon picks him off and tags him with accurate blows. Haddon measures an elbow up top, fighting off a tie-up from the New Mexican so he can rip combinations. Argueta stumbles to the side, but he keeps throwing heat. Haddon lets Argueta overswing so he can ding him with single counters, until Argueta boots him in the front leg and drops him. Argueta pulls back right before unleashing what would have been an illegal soccer kick, and Haddon stands back up. Argueta uses Haddon’s forward momentum against him to land power strikes, but Haddon is right in his face popping him again and again. Argueta’s blows become more labored and telegraphed as he fatigues, and Haddon is still on point with strikes but unable to stop Argueta from taking him down. Haddon crawls his way back up, scoring two quick punches before Argueta rushes after him to re-engage a clinch. Argueta drops low for a takedown, fails and transitions into another attempt, and then one more. Haddon remains upright for all of them, pushing Argueta to the center of the cage and breaking. Haddon jabs and lumps Argueta up with straight strikes, not exposing himself with too much power to throw himself off-balance. The Aussie turns the tables on the charging Argueta, putting Argueta on his back after an attempt. Argueta scrambles to his feet and pursues a few more that come up short before the final bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Haddon (30-27 Haddon)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Haddon (30-27 Haddon)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Haddon (30-27 Haddon)

The Official Result
Cody Haddon def. Dan Argueta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

Angelo is torn on this fight, initially leaning toward Daniel Argueta due to his wrestling and game plan, but he worries that Cody Haddon's scramble skills could frustrate Argueta. He ultimately leans toward Haddon as the prospect, but admits he is not confident and will not bet on this fight. He notes that Argueta is a good dog but doesn't trust him to win.

"I'm going to have to lean towards the prospect... I'm not betting on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Big Brady picks Daniel Argueta as an underdog at +155, expecting a close fight that goes to decision. He acknowledges Cody Haddon is a good fighter with crisp striking and a BJJ black belt, but sees Argueta's path to victory through wrestling, as Argueta lands nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes. He notes Haddon's long flight from Australia and Argueta's superior competition. He worries about corrupt judges favoring control over damage, so he prefers the plus money.

Argueta by decision
"I think I'm going to pick that Underdog here in and danan aretta I think this is a close fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dan Argueta

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Haddon's only UFC win was against a poor athlete, and now he faces a much better athlete in Argueta. He points out that Argueta is a brute force fighter who crashes into opponents, and Haddon may struggle with the pressure. Connor thinks the winner will be the one who comes forward.

"Yep, it's you know, it'll be a guy who comes forward wins fight for sure"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

Daniel is impressed by Haddon's Contender Series performance and his well-rounded skills. He notes Argueta's strength in grappling but poor standup and cardio. Daniel thinks Haddon's pace and versatility will be the difference, but he is not confident enough to lay the price due to Haddon's UFC debut and potential jet lag.

"I think Cody Haddon's going to make this guy work... I do think he's got the higher ceiling here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dan Argueta

Argueta is a wrestler who chains his takedown attempts together and has a great gas tank for 15 minutes. Haddon has not faced a grapple-heavy approach like Argueta's. If Argueta can avoid Haddon's striking and slick BJJ, he should keep Haddon on the defensive and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Haddon has not faced the type of grapple heavy approach he's going to be getting from the wrestler here in Argueta"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

The MMA Guru picks Cody Haddon, praising his talent and potential. He references Haddon's close fight with Steve Erceg, noting his scrambling ability, and his impressive win over Billy Brand on the Contender Series. He criticizes Daniel Argueta for lacking finishing potential and stalling against the cage, and notes that Haddon has great scrambles to counter Argueta's grappling.

TKO finish
"I'm going with Cody Haden... I think he's got a lot of potential I think he's a very good fighter I'm going to pick him to beat down Aletta"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dan Argueta

Zane picks Argueta for his raw physicality, comparing him to a wrecking ball. He notes that Argueta overwhelms opponents with athleticism, as seen against Ronnie Lawrence and Nikki Ure. Zane thinks Haddon's lack of athleticism and slow foot speed will be a problem, especially if he gets pressured. He believes Argueta's constant aggression will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna pick Argoetta just for the raw physicality"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

LOSS vs Jean Matsumoto
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jean Matsumoto 0 14 of 39 35% 39 of 69 9 of 19 47% 0 0 6:01
Dan Argueta 0 19 of 35 54% 29 of 47 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jean Matsumoto 0 6 of 16 37% 26 of 41 4 of 8 50% 0 0 2:45
Dan Argueta 0 6 of 12 50% 8 of 15 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
2 Jean Matsumoto 0 8 of 23 34% 13 of 28 5 of 11 45% 0 0 3:16
Dan Argueta 0 13 of 23 56% 21 of 32 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jean Matsumoto 14 of 39 35% 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 1 10 of 31 0 of 3 4 of 5
Dan Argueta 19 of 35 54% 10 of 24 1 of 3 8 of 8 13 of 26 5 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jean Matsumoto 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 2 4 of 4
Dan Argueta 6 of 12 50% 1 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 5 2 of 6 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jean Matsumoto 8 of 23 34% 7 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 1
Dan Argueta 13 of 23 56% 9 of 18 1 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 20 1 of 2 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dan Argueta vs. Jean Matsumoto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-185), Argueta (+154)

Round 1
Bantamweights take the stage next as Argueta (9-1, 2 NC; 1-1, 2 NC UFC) tries to get back in the win column after two unusual events resulting in no contests. Against him will be the debuting undefeated Matsumoto (14-0, 0-0 UFC), who will likely welcome any grappling that Argueta brings to the table. Joining them in the Octagon will be referee Jason Herzog, who clocks them in as they decide against touching gloves. Argueta circles around on the outside while Matsumoto holds the center of the cage, and he swings his way in with a clubbing left hand so he can shoot in on the hips. Argueta manages to drag the unbeaten fighter down, and Matsumoto leans up against the wall and starts getting hammered with elbows and punches. Matsumoto looks to work his way up, and Argueta drags him down and continues smacking him around with his free right hand. Matsumoto gets back to his feet, and Argueta quickly trips him out down to a knee. When Matsumoto stands once more, Argueta hits a trip and lands right in full mount. Argueta opens up with elbows and punches, and Matsumoto uses every bit of his energy to explode and reverse the position to stand back up and grab Argueta from behind. Matsumoto looks to wrest Argueta down, and he even lifts the American up, but Argueta does not go down. On a third effort, Matsumoto succeeds in putting Argueta on his back, but only for a moment before Argueta gets back up and turns the tables to toss Matsumoto down. Matsumoto regathers himself and pursues a deep single, and Argueta defends with a kimura in an attempt to sweep. Matsumoto still lands on top, but Argueta turns him over and they get back to their feet. Argueta chases his man down, walking him from one side of the cage to the other before shooting in on a double. Matsumoto sprawls and puts the wall behind him, but Argueta still manages to cinch up Matsumoto’s leg to ground him. Matsumoto fights his way back up and takes a flush knee. Matsumoto gathers himself and lands a leg kick that flusters Argueta, and he rushes after Argueta and kicks him in the face to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Argueta

Round 2
Argueta rushes out of his corner to start off the second round, where he charges for a double and evades a knee by a whisker. Argueta succeeds in stripping Matsumoto’s base and putting him on the mat, but briefly. When Matsumoto climbs up, Argueta lands a mat return. Matsumoto bounces off the floor as if he had springs in his trunks, and Argueta stays tightly pressed against him as he continues to pursue his grappling. Matsumoto gets his hand slapped for grabbing the fence, and Argueta works his way around to take the back. Matsumoto turns around and splits his hips to preemptively prevent a takedown, only for Argueta to still take him down. Argueta’s landed takedown quantity may be high, but his ground control time is limited. Matsumoto counters an advancing Argueta with a right hand, disrupting the takedown as Argueta did not like taking that strike flush. Matsumoto slips and scores a low kick, and he cracks “The Determined” with a right hand that stands him up. Argueta gathers his thoughts and runs face-first into the hips to secure a takedown. Lacing Matsumoto’s legs beneath his own, Argueta keeps Matsumoto down until Matsumoto turns things around and somehow stands and lowers himself to get a single. Argueta stands up and Matsumoto slides out the back door, and he goes after a double but is stood up by the undefeated fighter. Argueta hits his knees for a different approach, and he lets go and stands up to throw hands. Landing a few and getting caught with a right hand, Argueta then decides to stop trading and go after another takedown. Matsumoto stops it in its tracks and pushes him back, and he checks a leg kick and dings Argueta with a right hand when Argueta lands after a missed flying knee.
Argueta dives after a single, and Matsumoto jumps guard with a guillotine choke with seconds to go. Argueta punches the hip as Matsumoto rolls to lock up the guillotine in mount. Argueta taps out and goes out, and he wakes up on top surprised as Herzog tends to him.
This is the first time that Argueta has been finished as a pro, and Matsumoto does it in a big way as he might have been down two rounds had they reached the third. In his successful promotional debut, Matsumoto’s record now reaches 15-0 with one more guillotine added on his ledger.

The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Dan Argueta R2 4:59 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo picks Dan Argueta despite the line movement making him a big underdog. He believes Argueta's pressure and wrestling will be too much for Jean Matsumoto, who is a Contender Series prospect. He notes that Matsumoto beat a wrestler on Contender Series but thinks Argueta is a different animal. He mentions that Argueta's pressure is bigger and better than anything Matsumoto has seen, and that Matsumoto will have to defend every takedown. Angelo is watching the line movement and may bet Argueta if the odds get better.

Angelo is watching line movement; Argueta opened at -140 now +175; may bet if line moves further
"I think Dan Argueta is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Big Brady picks Dan Argueta as a live dog, noting that Matsumoto has a tendency to play off his back too much and can be taken down. While Matsumoto is the better striker, Argueta has the wrestling to get the fight to the mat and potentially win two out of three rounds. Brady sees a grinding decision win for Argueta.

"I'm going to take Dan areda to go out there get takedowns stay safe on top and ultimately win a grinding base decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Cody also picks Matsumoto, noting Argueta's inconsistency and tendency to gas. He thinks Argueta will get takedowns early, but Matsumoto's submission threat off his back and striking advantage will allow him to take over late. Cody is wary of Argueta's power wrestling but believes Matsumoto's youth and skill will prevail.

"I'm with you I'm going to side with the uh the contender series graduate in John mats Moto as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Daniel Vreeland leans slightly toward Jean Matsumoto, citing his upside and striking combinations. He acknowledges Dan Argueta's wrestling and physicality will likely win the first round, but questions Argueta's cardio if he expends too much energy early. Vreeland believes if Matsumoto can survive the early grappling, he can pick Argueta apart on the feet in later rounds and edge out a decision.

"I'm a slightly lean with Matsumoto I think he's got more upside."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Matsumoto is a bright prospect with great all-around skills, especially striking. He has solid defensive grappling and should be able to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet. His combination striking and leg kicks will damage Argueta, who relies on wrestling but lacks striking. Matsumoto wins by decision.

Matsumoto by decision
"I'm going to take Matsumoto to win by decision um but yeah I I think people are overlooking the true skill set and potential of Matsumoto here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Paul picks Matsumoto but is hesitant. He likes Matsumoto's striking and BJJ, but notes Argueta is a strong wrestler early. Paul thinks if Argueta doesn't get the takedown early or gasses, Matsumoto will take over. He sees Matsumoto as a future contender but acknowledges Argueta's early danger.

"I'm gonna go matumoto... Jean masimoto will be the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The host calls Argueta awful, citing losses to Miles Johns and a no-contest with Ronnie Lawrence. He praises Matsumoto as an undefeated prospect with wicked striking, low kicks, strong hips, and good takedown defense. He notes Matsumoto's small size (5'5") may help stuff takedowns. He predicts a decision win where Matsumoto does more damage than Argueta's control time, but also mentions Matsumoto has good submissions from stuffing takedowns.

"Gan matuto 14 and0 undefeated Prospect Wicked striking Wicked low kicks and something that I've noticed in his game is that he's got a very strong bottom half"
LOSS vs Miles Johns
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Argueta 0 33 of 85 38% 38 of 95 2 of 6 33% 2 0 3:55
Miles Johns 0 43 of 92 46% 52 of 104 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Argueta 0 3 of 14 21% 8 of 21 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:14
Miles Johns 0 8 of 21 38% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
2 Dan Argueta 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Miles Johns 0 14 of 28 50% 23 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:50
3 Dan Argueta 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:20
Miles Johns 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Argueta 33 of 85 38% 20 of 67 8 of 12 5 of 6 22 of 70 5 of 8 6 of 7
Miles Johns 43 of 92 46% 32 of 77 5 of 9 6 of 6 40 of 84 2 of 3 1 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Argueta 3 of 14 21% 1 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miles Johns 8 of 21 38% 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 2
2 Dan Argueta 16 of 32 50% 10 of 24 3 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 24 5 of 7 1 of 1
Miles Johns 14 of 28 50% 10 of 22 3 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Dan Argueta 14 of 39 35% 9 of 33 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 33 0 of 0 5 of 6
Miles Johns 21 of 43 48% 14 of 34 2 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 41 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo trusts Argueta's wrestling-first game plan and believes Johns' takedown defense is inflated because he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. He expects Argueta to stay on the hips and outwork Johns. Pretty confident pick.

"Dan Argueta pretty confident pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady picks Miles Johns as an underdog, calling the fight close and likely to go to decision. He likes Johns' defensive wrestling and striking defense, and notes Johns has power and out-lands opponents despite low volume. He thinks Argueta may have wrestling success later as Johns slows down, but believes Johns can win at least two rounds. He prefers the plus money.

"give me miles Jones for a decision but it's gonna be a close fight nonetheless"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Cody picks Dan Argueta, impressed by his toughness and grappling. He notes Argueta's strong wrestling and submission threats, while Johns has cardio issues and slows down. He believes Argueta's pressure and pace will overwhelm Johns in later rounds.

"I got our Guetta I don't mind the pre-line money line I got a feeling that if he gets off to a slow start and maybe loses that first round you can get an even better price tag on him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Daniel picks Argueta but without strong conviction. He thinks Johns has been a letdown in the UFC, with low output and a tendency to break under pressure. He questions whether Argueta can push the pace needed to break Johns, but believes Argueta's hunger and takedown volume might be enough. He acknowledges the line is close to accurate and is not betting it.

"I'm gonna go with arua as a pick so one of us is right here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Lucrative James likes Miles Johns at the line, calling it an overcorrection. He thinks Johns can defend takedowns early and has power on the feet. He notes Johns is a good wrestler himself and could get takedowns. He sees the fight as close, possibly a pick'em, but favors Johns.

"I like Miles Johns at the line anyway."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

The host picks Argueta at minus 170, calling it a gift line. He praises Argueta's wrestling, cardio, and pressure, expecting him to wear on Johns and pull away late. He notes Johns' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Argueta is superior in grappling and pace. He predicts a decision win for Argueta after a close first round.

"minus 170 in my opinion is a gift of a line here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Paul picks Argueta but prefers live betting. He worries about Argueta's low volume and Johns's 92% takedown defense. He thinks Johns may win early rounds but Argueta's cardio advantage could take over. He is interested in Argueta by submission or round 3 prop.

Interested in Argueta round 3 prop at +800.
"I'm gonna pick our geta but pre-flop not very interested in the minus 175... I think it's a better spot like if he goes out there takes down miles John's immediately off the Hop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

The MMA Guru picks Dan Argueta, criticizing Miles Johns' weak strength of schedule, noting his opponents include Kevin Natividad and Anderson dos Santos. He praises Argueta's training at Jackson Wink MMA, his judo background, and his toughness in taking Damon Jackson to a close decision. He believes Argueta is a gradually improving fighter with good hips and strength, while Johns has plateaued. He expects Argueta to win via grappling and pressure.

"I'm probably gonna go with our getter here I've actually been quite surprised by our getter's career because I didn't think he was going to be much of anything before he joined the UFC..."
LOSS vs Ronnie Lawrence
No Contest (overturned) R1 2:20 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Argueta 0 4 of 4 100% 12 of 12 1 of 1 100% 2 1 2:08
Ronnie Lawrence 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Argueta 0 4 of 4 100% 12 of 12 1 of 1 100% 2 1 2:08
Ronnie Lawrence 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Argueta 4 of 4 100% 3 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Ronnie Lawrence 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Argueta 4 of 4 100% 3 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Ronnie Lawrence 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo picks Dan Argueta as a low confidence underdog. He notes that Ronnie Lawrence is a great offensive wrestler but struggled when pressured in his last fight. Argueta's forward pressure and wrestling could cause similar issues. Angelo likes the plus 135 moneyline but hasn't bet yet, saying he's keeping an eye on it.

"I'm gonna pick Argueta here it's a low confidence pick because one or two bad scrambles and then all of a sudden Danner grade is losing this fight but our great is going to be the pick and that plus …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

Big Brady picks Ronnie Lawrence to win by decision. He is high on Lawrence, praising his relentless wrestling, cardio, and underrated striking. Lawrence averages 7 takedowns per 15 minutes with 77% accuracy. Argueta is also a wrestler, but Brady thinks Lawrence's relentless pace will be too much. He notes that Lawrence can attempt 20+ takedowns if needed. He disagrees with the initial -550 opener for Lawrence, saying -155 is about right, but still expects Lawrence to win a decision.

"I'm gonna take Ronnie Lawrence to win this fight but yeah that that odds and that line movement um it's very interesting."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

Cody picks Lawrence, noting that despite his poor takedown performance against Said Khamzatov, he got up nine times and learned from the experience. He thinks Lawrence is a talented striker with good footwork and speed, and that Argueta's takedown defense is not great and his volume is low. Cody believes Lawrence can stuff takedowns and win on the feet.

"give me Ronnie Lawrence to get back on the winning Trail"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Connor picks Argueta, arguing that Lawrence is not a strong athlete and will struggle with Argueta's strength and wrestling. He notes that Argueta is a featherweight cutting down and will be able to spend time on top. Connor believes Lawrence will give up tie-ups and Argueta will end up in dominant positions. He expects Argueta to grind out a decision or get a late finish.

"I think it's much more likely that Lawrence will pretty quickly give him tie-ups that he needs and our getter will end up on top in them."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

Daniel Levi picks Ronnie Lawrence, citing his significant striking edge and power. He notes Argueta's poor striking defense and cardio issues. He acknowledges Lawrence's bad loss to Saydokub but attributes it to a broken nose and tough opponent. He got Lawrence at -150 and thinks he wins at a decent clip, though weight cut concerns exist.

bet at -150
"I ended up playing him at I think minus 150"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Argueta has superior technical wrestling compared to Lawrence, who is more of a pace-based wrestler. Lawrence's takedown-heavy style may not work against a better wrestler like Argueta. Argueta can get top position and grind out a decision. The plus 155 underdog line offers value.

"I plus 155 I'm gonna go with back-to-back underdogs here give me Dan argueetta by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Paul is tempted by Argueta at plus money, noting that Lawrence has been rocked before and that Argueta is a strong grappler with low center of gravity. He thinks this fight is best approached live, as the first wrestling exchanges will reveal a lot. He picks Argueta for the show but is not confident pre-fight.

targeting this fight from a live betting perspective
"I'm gonna pick our get up but it's like I feel like you're gonna have a much better idea of how this fight really shakes out by like the first cup of wrestling exchanges"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

The MMA Guru picks Ronnie Lawrence, stating a massive talent difference. He argues Lawrence should not have been cut from the UFC after a close loss to Said Nurmagomedov, and that Dan Argueta lacks the power to trouble Lawrence. He praises Lawrence's transitions and scrambling, expecting him to be too much for Argueta's simple style.

"I've got to go with Ronnie Lawrence here out of the two of them I just think he shows a massive amount of talent difference"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

Zane picks Lawrence, describing Argueta as slow and cumbersome, loading up on single shots. He believes Lawrence's tricky karate-style striking and scrambling will befuddle Argueta. Zane notes that Lawrence's first layer of offense is more capable of confusing Argueta than vice versa. He expects Lawrence to land more impressive shots and win a competitive fight.

"I'm taking Ronnie Lawrence."
WIN vs Nick Aguirre
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Argueta 0 47 of 85 55% 93 of 144 4 of 6 66% 2 1 10:14
Nick Aguirre 0 14 of 44 31% 15 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Argueta 0 5 of 8 62% 15 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 1 3:24
Nick Aguirre 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:15
2 Dan Argueta 0 25 of 37 67% 38 of 52 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:22
Nick Aguirre 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dan Argueta 0 17 of 40 42% 40 of 66 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:28
Nick Aguirre 0 4 of 22 18% 5 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Argueta 47 of 85 55% 29 of 65 9 of 10 9 of 10 27 of 55 6 of 9 14 of 21
Nick Aguirre 14 of 44 31% 14 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 1 13 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Argueta 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5
Nick Aguirre 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dan Argueta 25 of 37 67% 12 of 24 7 of 7 6 of 6 18 of 29 1 of 1 6 of 7
Nick Aguirre 9 of 21 42% 9 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Dan Argueta 17 of 40 42% 13 of 34 2 of 3 2 of 3 7 of 24 4 of 7 6 of 9
Nick Aguirre 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo picks Argueta, believing his wrestling will be too much for the short-notice debutant. He notes Aguirre's opponents had poor records and he hasn't faced a wrestler like Argueta. He thinks Argueta's takedowns and pressure will lead to a finish. He has a small bet on the under 2.5 rounds.

Small bet on under 2.5 rounds at -200
"I think Dan gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Isaac Dulgarian (incorrectly named as 'Isaac dogarion' in transcript) as an upset, liking his wrestling, submission game, and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Dulgarian has faced weak competition and hasn't seen the second round, but believes his skills will translate. He points out that Argueta has been taken down easily by wrestlers like Damon Jackson and Diego Silva, and that Dulgarian should be able to control him on the mat. He predicts a first-round finish for Dulgarian.

Dulgarian by first round finish
"I'm gonna take the dog and dog Aryan I'm gonna say he goes out there and gets a first round finish over Daniel arget"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nick Aguirre

Cody leans towards Aguirre as a live underdog, citing Argueta's poor get-up game and Aguirre's BJJ. He thinks the line is off and Aguirre could win if he gets takedowns. However, he admits uncertainty and is not betting heavily.

"I'm gonna say live Underdog spot here for Hernandez in a fight that could be close"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Connor picks Argueta as well, citing the short notice replacement and Argueta's experience. He notes that Argueta is a good pocket puncher but has a monofocus, and that the fight could be ugly if Aguirre can't get takedowns. Connor seems less confident than Zane, but still leans Argueta.

"I'm gonna pick Argueta just on the little bits of extra experience he's had via tough via that fight with Jackson"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Jacob agrees Argueta should win, calling it a good matchup. He notes Aguirre is a slightly better striker but Argueta's wrestling is superior. He thinks Argueta's game plan remains the same and he should control the fight. He likes the under 2.5 value.

Likes the under 2.5 at -200
"This should be a Dan Argueta play"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Paul picks Argueta but is not confident due to the steep price. He notes Argueta's strength and wrestling, but acknowledges Aguirre is unproven. He is not betting this fight.

"our ghetto wins but uh I'm probably gonna just sit this one out"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Zane picks Argueta based on his extra experience, noting that Argueta is a good pocket puncher with solid power and has shown some wrestling ability. However, he is concerned that Argueta is monofocused on punching and untested, and that Aguirre could take him down and submit him. Zane also mentions that Argueta lost to Damon Jackson by getting his back taken, which is a worry against Aguirre's grappling.

Odds mentioned: Argueta opened at +285, jumped to +410, currently +410; Aguirre opened at -350, jumped to -500, currently -569.
"I'm gonna pick Argueta just on the little bits of extra experience he's had via tough via that fight with Jackson"
LOSS vs Damon Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 32 of 53 60% 47 of 71 2 of 4 50% 1 1 10:25
Dan Argueta 0 27 of 59 45% 103 of 141 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:14
Dan Argueta 0 0 of 0 --- 33 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:42
2 Damon Jackson 0 9 of 10 90% 14 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:58
Dan Argueta 0 5 of 11 45% 27 of 37 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
3 Damon Jackson 0 23 of 43 53% 32 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Dan Argueta 0 22 of 48 45% 43 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 53 60% 23 of 44 6 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 40 5 of 5 8 of 8
Dan Argueta 27 of 59 45% 24 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 42 10 of 15 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Argueta 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 9 of 10 90% 7 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 5
Dan Argueta 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 2
3 Damon Jackson 23 of 43 53% 16 of 36 4 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 37 3 of 3 3 of 3
Dan Argueta 22 of 48 45% 19 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 38 7 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.

moneyline bet on Argueta, plus 3.5 round buy (buying points on judge's scorecard)
"i like argued in this fight because of that game plan i think just coming forward and shooting is is going to get damon jackson now worrying about defending takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.

Jackson by submission, round 3
"I like damon jackson here quite a bit um and i like him to win by a late finish i think he kind of breaks argetta"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.

"i gotta go jackson for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.

Jackson inside distance -145
"you cannot lay minus 600 on damon jackson but i will pick him to win this fight ufc experience and size will be the will be the keys here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Jackson, citing his experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes Argueta's short notice, weight class move, and recent five-round war. He thinks Jackson's grappling and striking are superior and expects a finish or dominant decision.

"this should be his fight to win and i think he can win in a multitude of ways"
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.

moneyline bet on Argueta, plus 3.5 round buy (buying points on judge's scorecard)
"i like argued in this fight because of that game plan i think just coming forward and shooting is is going to get damon jackson now worrying about defending takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.

Jackson by submission, round 3
"I like damon jackson here quite a bit um and i like him to win by a late finish i think he kind of breaks argetta"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.

"i gotta go jackson for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.

Jackson inside distance -145
"you cannot lay minus 600 on damon jackson but i will pick him to win this fight ufc experience and size will be the will be the keys here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Jackson, citing his experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes Argueta's short notice, weight class move, and recent five-round war. He thinks Jackson's grappling and striking are superior and expects a finish or dominant decision.

"this should be his fight to win and i think he can win in a multitude of ways"