Career Averages - Damon Jackson
Career Averages - Dan Argueta
Damon Jackson
Dan Argueta
Damon Jackson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jim Miller | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 10 of 24 | 41% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 16 of 31 | 51% | 8 of 17 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jim Miller | 10 of 24 | 41% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 16 of 31 | 51% | 8 of 17 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-170), Miller (+142)
Round 1
Two vets on the wrong end of 35 will be matched against one another as the prelims carry on. Miller (37-18, 1 NC; 26-17, 1 NC UFC) will be seeking to improve on his UFC-leading win tally, while Jackson (23-7-1, 1 NC; 6-5-1, 1 NC UFC) has regressed to the mean and is a loss away from a .500 record after two stints in the promotion. For as long as it lasts, this one should be a good one, and referee Keith Peterson is on top of the lightweight action as well as the nonsense. There is no glove touch that comes from the elder statesmen, as they want to go after it immediately. Jackson attacks first, connecting with a few power punches to introduce himself. Miller fires back with an overhand right, takes a right to the body and comes back with another clubbing punch. The two clash legs at the same time when kicking, and Miller dings Jackson with an uppercut when defending a single-leg takedown. Jackson pushes Miller to the wire, and chants for “Miller” drown out all other noise in the building. This energizes “A-10,” who breaks out of the clinch and stuffs another takedown to boot. Jackson punches his way into an exchange, and Miller cuts him when firing back. Miller further opens the cut on the eyebrow with a step-in elbow, and he swings a big right hand that is ducked and countered. Jackson tosses out a front kick, and Miller throws back with fire. Another front kick from Jackson gets in, and Miller pressures forward and whips a low kick that lands with a whump. Miller sits down with a left hand that makes both men take a step back, and he is prepared to defend against what comes next. Jackson dives after him, with an ill-advised naked takedown that is stopped in its tracks by a Miller guillotine choke.
Miller jumps guard to complete the submission, and as soon as Jackson hits the mat, he realizes the choke is so deep and so tight that he almost abandons ship immediately. Miller keeps squeezing for all his might, and Jackson decides against going out on his shield and surrenders.
It is the first time that Jackson has ever tapped in his long career, with his previous submission defeat of the technical variety that put him out. The ageless wonder does it again, submitting a man with incredible jiu-jitsu without taking much damage. The crowd goes wild, as the UFC’s all-time winningest fighters adds one more to the total. Miller tells commentator Joe Rogan that there is still tread left on the tires, and says he plans on making it to fight 50 in the UFC. On the other side of the equation—as there is the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat in almost every fight—Jackson removes his gloves and leaves them in the center of the Octagon, not wishing to speak to the crowd to give Miller his time to shine. Shine he did.
The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson R1 2:44 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Damon Jackson, citing Jackson's striking improvements and wrestling. He believes Jackson will hang in striking, get takedowns, and control on top without being in danger. He notes Jim Miller's age and that his black belt is outdated. He placed a half-unit bet on Jackson at -150.
Big Brady picks Jim Miller by knockout, citing Miller's power and durability versus Jackson's chinny nature. He notes that Jackson gets hurt in every fight and looks like a wounded deer on the feet, while Miller still has power that lasts. He also mentions the return to old gloves, which he believes favors knockouts. He predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Jackson's path via takedowns.
Cody picks Damon Jackson, citing Miller's age (41) and recent decline. He notes Miller's only path is an early finish, while Jackson has better durability and cardio. Cody expects Jackson to win a competitive decision, possibly by outworking Miller in the later rounds.
Connor picks Miller but with hesitation, noting that Jackson's game is 'chancey' and that Miller can still obliterate lower-level opponents. He points out that Jackson's wins are always scrappy and that Miller is a more reliable fighter. However, he acknowledges that Miller's stamina and directional issues could be exploited.
Daniel Vreeland picks Damon Jackson via decision, expecting Miller to win the first round but fade. He notes Miller's history of fading after round one and Jackson's ability to grind out wins. He acknowledges Miller's early threat but believes Jackson can survive and take over in later rounds. He mentions Miller's recent loss to Bobby Green as evidence of his decline.
Vreeland picks Miller as his dog, liking the plus money. He notes Miller is a durable veteran and that Jackson has lost three in a row. Vreeland expects Miller to win by decision, as Jackson is tough to finish.
Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions Vreeland's pick but does not state his own opinion.
The host gives Miller a slight striking advantage but believes the fight will be dictated in the grappling realm, where Jackson should utilize his size and strength more effectively to get controlling positions and grind out a decision win.
Paul picks Damon Jackson, noting Miller is on his last legs and Jackson has good enough grappling to avoid being submitted. He expects Jackson to win a decision, possibly by outworking Miller. Paul is not betting the fight but leans Jackson.
The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson, expecting him to grapple and grind out a decision. He believes Jackson will take Miller down and hold him there, wearing him out. He notes Jackson's size and grappling ability, and doubts Miller can finish early.
Zane picks Miller despite acknowledging his age and stamina issues. He notes that Miller is still dangerous on the feet and harder to hurt than Jackson, who is hittable and structurally unsound. Zane thinks Miller's power and durability give him an edge, but he is hesitant because Miller tends to fade late and can be out-wrestled.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 32 of 49 | 65% | 49 of 72 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 4:18 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 73 of 100 | 73% | 218 of 267 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 2 | 8:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 18 of 27 | 66% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 53 of 69 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 29 of 38 | 76% | 94 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:30 | |
| 3 | Chepe Mariscal | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:24 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 71 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 2:56 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chepe Mariscal | 32 of 49 | 65% | 5 of 16 | 26 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 27 of 34 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 73 of 100 | 73% | 59 of 86 | 13 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 17 of 21 | 48 of 61 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chepe Mariscal | 18 of 27 | 66% | 3 of 10 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 25 of 37 | 67% | 16 of 28 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 11 of 14 | 11 of 14 | |
| 2 | Chepe Mariscal | 8 of 12 | 66% | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 29 of 38 | 76% | 26 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 31 | |
| 3 | Chepe Mariscal | 6 of 10 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 19 of 25 | 76% | 17 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 16 |
Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he is the more well-rounded fighter with BJJ, kickboxing, and wrestling credentials, and is a dog who won't break. However, he is hesitant because Chepe is a favorite for the first time, his wins have been close, and Damon Jackson with a new hair transplant has been the best version of himself. He warns not to overexpose on Chepe.
Cody picks Mariscal because he is more durable, has a cast iron chin, judo black belt, trains at altitude with top fighters, and has good takedown defense. He notes Jackson needs to finish early and tends to gas, while Mariscal's forward pressure and volume will wear him down. Cody suggests a possible third-round finish.
Mariscal has a high work rate, good scrambling, and cardio that should overwhelm Jackson as the fight goes on. Jackson is dangerous early with submissions, but if he doesn't finish, Mariscal will take over in rounds two and three. The prediction is Mariscal by decision, with a possible third-round finish.
Paul echoes Cody's sentiments, highlighting Mariscal's activity, striking with ill intent, and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Jackson's history of gassing and that Mariscal has the dog in him. Paul also jokes about Jackson's new hair plugs giving him confidence.
The MMA Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, comparing him to a slightly worse Dan Ige. He highlights Mariscal's scrambling ability, pressure, and striking advantage over Damon Jackson. He notes Jackson's grappling threat but believes Mariscal's 'ball of muscle' physique and urgency in scrambles will neutralize it. He also jokes about hairline envy affecting Jackson.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 1 | 32 of 87 | 36% | 56 of 119 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 42 of 85 | 49% | 85 of 135 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 6:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 19 of 49 | 38% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 33 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 1 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 16 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 32 of 87 | 36% | 20 of 69 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 80 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 42 of 85 | 49% | 20 of 60 | 10 of 12 | 12 of 13 | 30 of 68 | 11 of 16 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 8 of 27 | 29% | 4 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 10 of 21 | 47% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 19 of 49 | 38% | 11 of 35 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 23 of 52 | 44% | 13 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 47 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 9 of 12 | 75% | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)
Round 1
Serving as the co-headliner is a match previously scheduled at featherweight. Instead, Hernandez (14-7, 6-6 UFC) botched his weight cut and exceeded the limit by a pound and a half on his second attempt. He surrenders a percentage of his purse to Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC; 5-4-1, 1 NC UFC). Both men have struggled as of late, with Hernandez going 1-3 in his last four while Jackson has dropped two in a row. One of these two will get in the win column shortly, if referee Jason Herzog has anything to say about it. Hernandez offers an apologetic glove touch, and the magnificently maned Jackson does not accept it. Jackson prods out a front kick, and he wings a right hand that misses by a wide margin. Hernandez comes back at him with a head kick that is easily blocked, and he whips a kick low at the lead wheel. Jackson throws back his own body kick, and he turns Hernandez with a low kick. They both load up with right hands, and Jackson attacks the calf again. Jackson just misses with a front kick aimed at the jaw, and he catches a lazy kick aimed his direction and grabs hold of the younger man. Jackson grapples Hernandez from behind, getting away with a fence grab as Jackson tries to get a hook in standing. Jackson scores a number of knees to the back of the thigh, until Hernandez explodes and gets away. Hernandez manages to lure Jackson into a brief brawl, and Jackson sits down on a calf kick to again fluster Hernandez. Hernandez keeps a poker face and boxes Jackson in the jaw. Jackson catches the body kick and tries to procure a takedown with it, and he presses Hernandez to the wire. Jackson doggedly pursues a single, and he places “The Great Ape” gingerly on his seat. Jackson looks for offense when he gets there, only to find Hernandez springing back up after all of that hard work. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 2
Jackson begins the round with a head kick attempt, and he bloodies up his foe’s nose during a punch exchange. Jackson surges forward with two punches, and he turns his hips into a kick to the side. Hernandez tries to throw back a few times, but he misses the mark each time. Jackson jabs his way forward, and he hammers the calf with a kick. Jackson keeps doing work on the calf, and they both let loose with big haymaker right hands. Hernandez times a leg kick with an overhand right, and he counters with a solid right hand when Jackson tries to come back at him. Hernandez zips a left hand around the guard, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Hernandez chops at the front leg of his foe, and that reminds Jackson to do the same. Jackson rushes forward with punches, and Hernandez strafes to the side and eats a body kick on the way out. They both swing for the fences, and Jackson’s chin holds up although a cut opens up on the bridge of his nose. Hernandez targets jabs on that bloody spot, and he gets off a calf kick as he backs away. Jackson punches twice and hits a double, putting Hernandez on his side. This results in a stalemate until Jackson springs into action, and when Hernandez stands up, Jackson takes his back and gets a hook in. Jackson slithers his arm around the chin, and he lets it go to slug Hernandez in the chops repeatedly. The round ends as Jackson is pounding on him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 3
Jackson only needs a few seconds before delivering a fierce leg kick. When he throws a second, Hernandez times it and rifles a right hand straight down the middle. Jackson goes down like a sack of bricks, and Hernandez leaps on top of him and starts hunting for a choke. Jackson scrambles to get out of the initial danger, and Hernandez climbs into full mount and squeezes down with an arm-triangle choke. Jackson turns all the way around and fights back to his feet, and Hernandez charges at him throwing bombs. Jackson uses that momentum to turn the corner and pursue a takedown, and “The Great Ape” digs in his heels and does not hit the mat. Hernandez considers going for an ankle pick, and Jackson kicks off the cage and manages to take Hernandez’ back. Hernandez gets flattened out as Jackson starts working him with fists, until he powers back to his feet and tries to buck Jackson off of him. Jackson keeps tight and hangs on until Hernandez manages to work him off. Jackson turns through and goes for a single, dropping down to his knees to complete it. Jackson grinds on the younger fighter when he cannot complete the takedown, and they jockey for position against the cage. They turn one another around without gaining an advantage or landing much of note. Jackson sticks his tongue out, and he lands several elbows and punches to separate right before the horn sounds. Scores could be all over the map.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Alexander Hernandez via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.
Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.
Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.
Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.
Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.
The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 100 of 188 | 53% | 169 of 270 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 67 of 173 | 38% | 75 of 184 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 6:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 34 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:13 | |
| 2 | Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 40 of 69 | 57% | 58 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 15 of 50 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 3 | Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 45 of 84 | 53% | 77 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 26 of 64 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Quarantillo | 100 of 188 | 53% | 45 of 124 | 49 of 57 | 6 of 7 | 58 of 140 | 42 of 48 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 67 of 173 | 38% | 45 of 139 | 19 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 53 of 148 | 10 of 15 | 4 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Quarantillo | 15 of 35 | 42% | 8 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 28 of 62 | 45% | 19 of 48 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 8 | |
| 2 | Billy Quarantillo | 40 of 69 | 57% | 8 of 32 | 28 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 41 | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 13 of 48 | 27% | 5 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Billy Quarantillo | 45 of 84 | 53% | 29 of 65 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 31 of 68 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 26 of 63 | 41% | 21 of 55 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 2 |
Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant, noting that two years ago Billy would be a lock. He highlights Billy's high volume striking (8 significant strikes per minute) and BJJ, but is concerned about his recent KO loss and takedown defense (58%). He thinks Billy needs to keep the jab in Damon's face to prevent clean shots and defend takedowns. He acknowledges Damon Jackson is dangerous and on a good run before his loss to Dan Ige.
Big Brady likes Quarantillo's high volume (8 significant strikes per minute) and power. He thinks Jackson's chin is questionable (all 5 losses by finish, 4 by KO). He expects Quarantillo to pressure Jackson, and even if taken down, Quarantillo will make Jackson work and slow him down. He predicts a late second-round KO.
Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his volume, cardio, durability, and BJJ. He notes Jackson's low output and tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Quarantillo will wear Jackson down and win a decision or late finish. He also likes the over 72.5 significant strikes prop for Quarantillo.
Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Quarantillo is a comeback fighter who often loses the first round, and that Jackson is a dangerous submission artist who could finish early. Levi believes Quarantillo's durability and late-round pressure will be key, and that he can survive Jackson's early grappling to win rounds two and three. He dislikes laying -175 on a comeback fighter but picks Quarantillo as a pure pick.
James sees value on Damon Jackson. He notes Quarantillo gets taken down often and puts himself in submission attempts, though he's good at escaping. Jackson has good cardio and can take Quarantillo down to stop his rhythm. James thinks Jackson can win but acknowledges Quarantillo's late-round pace could overtake him.
Jackson is a strong grappler who can control the fight on the ground. Quarantillo usually gives up the first round and relies on cardio, but Jackson's wrestling should be enough to win rounds early and survive Quarantillo's third-round surge. I was surprised to see Jackson around +150 to +160; I think he's the better wrestler and will win by decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo's durability and cardio advantage. He believes Jackson's only path is an early knockout, but if it goes past the first round, Quarantillo's pace will be too much. He suggests a live bet on Quarantillo after the first round.
The host leans Billy Quarantillo, citing his striking edge and well-roundedness. He notes Quarantillo has never been submitted, which is key against Jackson's submission-heavy style. He thinks Jackson needs a finish to win, while Quarantillo can win a decision. However, he is not crazy about the -185 line and suggests waiting for it to drop to -170 or -175.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 1 | 34 of 74 | 45% | 40 of 81 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 36 of 100 | 36% | 38 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 26 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 13 of 45 | 28% | 13 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 1 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 25 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 34 of 74 | 45% | 17 of 54 | 13 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 28 of 65 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 36 of 100 | 36% | 22 of 81 | 10 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 92 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 21 of 45 | 46% | 13 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 37 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 13 of 45 | 28% | 7 of 37 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 13 of 29 | 44% | 4 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Damon Jackson | 23 of 55 | 41% | 15 of 44 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 50 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Damon Jackson but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Dan Ige's tough competition but Jackson's relentless grappling and recent win streak. He mentions Jackson's takedowns and pressure could be key, but Ige's striking and durability make it close. He respects Jackson's run and picks him until he loses.
Big Brady is confident in Dan Ige, viewing this as a massive step down in competition for Ige after facing top-10 opponents. He believes Ige has a clear striking advantage and power to finish, noting that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses. He expects Ige to land a body shot knockout in the second round, as Jackson's striking defense is poor and he leaves openings to the body. He also mentions that Ige's takedown defense is adequate and that Jackson's path to victory via grappling is unlikely.
Cody agrees with Ige, emphasizing his durability and striking advantage. He notes Jackson's low output and that Ige has fought much tougher competition. He expects Ige to pressure forward and land big shots, while Jackson needs early takedowns to win.
Connor picks Ige because he is a technically better fighter almost everywhere, with notable durability and a good chin. He notes that Ige has shown continual improvement in his striking and counter-punching, and that Jackson's chaotic style often leaves him open to being hurt. Connor also points out that Ige is well-rounded and has matured, avoiding the second-round fatigue that plagued him earlier in his career.
Jacob picks Damon Jackson despite bias against him for beating Pat Sabatini. He acknowledges Dan Ige is the better overall fighter but respects Jackson's run. He notes Jackson's grappling and toughness, and Ige's durability. He is not betting on the fight due to closeness.
Paul picks Ige, noting his durability and experience against elite competition (Korean Zombie, Josh Emmett). He believes Ige's striking volume and wrestling will outwork Jackson, who has shown low output and reliance on takedowns. He parlayed Ige with Umar and Rębecki at +167.
Zane picks Ige because he is a well-rounded fighter with good durability and has shown improvements in his striking. He notes that Jackson's chaotic style can create opportunities but Ige's experience against top competition and his ability to handle tough fights make him the safer pick. Zane also mentions that Ige's past conditioning issues seem to have been resolved.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Pat Sabatini | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Pat Sabatini | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 |
| Pat Sabatini | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 |
| Pat Sabatini | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-180), Jackson (+155)
Round 1
A pair of surging featherweights are on deck to provide what should be a scintillating clash of grappling styles. With 25 combined submissions between the two, any ground exchanges should be worth watching. Responsible for 15 of those tapouts/chokeouts is “The Leech” Jackson (21-4-1, 1 NC; 4-2-1, 1 NC UFC), while Renzo Gracie Philly rep Sabatini (17-3, 4-0 UFC) posts the other 10. This will be an emotional affair, as Jackson's brother passed away earlier this week. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to step in at a moment’s notice should nonsense materialize out of thin air, and there is no need of a glove touch as these two want to get after it. The first 30 seconds lead to nothing, and out of nowhere, Jackson fires off a front kick to the chin that stuns Sabatini. Sabatini lunges forward, and Jackson turns him about and throws him on his back. Jackson begins to pound on him with his fists, and Sabatini is in a bad way.
Jackson allows Sabatini to give up his back so that he can climb aboard and drop hammers. Sabatini shells up, flattened out on his stomach, and Jackson continues to bombard him with unanswered punches to the side of the head. The blows are fierce and furious, and Jackson does not slow down until Sabatini cries out and Peterson steps in to call a halt to the match.
Jackson climbs off his fallen foe, and he goes over to his corner and collapses to his knees and breaks down in tears. It is an emotional moment for Jackson and his family in the crowd, as he fights to honor his fallen brother.
The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:09 via TKO (Submission to Punches)
Angelo picks Sabatini, citing his superior wrestling and pure grappling. He notes that Sabatini has technical striking and controls range well, but his main path is through takedowns and top control. Angelo worries about Jackson's pressure but believes Sabatini's grappling will prevail. He is surprised the line has tightened.
Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win inside the distance, but acknowledges it's a tough fight to call. He notes that both fighters are similar—BJJ black belts with wrestling backgrounds and mediocre striking. Brady gives the edge to Sabatini due to his youth, power on the feet, and training at Renzo Gracie Philly (which has a 15-0 or 16-0 UFC record). He also points out that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses (three by KO). Brady predicts Sabatini will hurt Jackson on the feet and then submit him.
Cody thinks Jackson's BJJ black belt and striking advantage will trouble Sabatini, who is one-dimensional. He notes Sabatini struggles when takedowns are stuffed and Jackson can make it ugly on the feet. Cody calls it a potential apple pie (underdog pick).
Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, trusting his wrestling and submission game to win rounds. He views Sabatini as a reliable round-winner despite low output, while Jackson can be slowed down and give up positions. He thinks Sabatini is more likely to seal rounds with late takedowns. He does not bet due to the price.
Jacob is a big fan of Sabatini, calling him 'my dude' and noting his 4-0 lock of the week record. He praises Sabatini's control on the ground and his ability to keep opponents against the cage. Jacob worries about Sabatini's striking improvements but believes his grappling will dominate. He jumped on the -200 line and may double down.
Jackson is the best grappler Sabatini has faced; once it hits the mat, it's a 50-50 fight. Sabatini may be the better wrestler but Jackson has high-level Jiu-Jitsu and experience against tough competition. Jackson's ability to reverse and get back to his feet will be key. The line should be closer to a pick'em, so Jackson at plus money is worth a shot. I see Jackson winning a decision.
Paul leans Jackson, noting Sabatini's lack of striking and that Jackson can stuff takedowns. He admits he hasn't been a Jackson guy historically but sees a path. He's not very confident.
The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by submission in the third round. He notes Damon Jackson often wins by barely doing enough and has trouble with shorter opponents, as seen against Daniel Argueta. He believes Sabatini's jiu-jitsu and shorter stocky frame will cause problems, and that Sabatini is younger and closer to his prime. He expects Sabatini to get a submission win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 32 of 53 | 60% | 47 of 71 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 10:25 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 27 of 59 | 45% | 103 of 141 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:14 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 33 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 14 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 32 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:13 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 43 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 32 of 53 | 60% | 23 of 44 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 40 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 |
| Dan Argueta | 27 of 59 | 45% | 24 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 42 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 9 of 10 | 90% | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
| Dan Argueta | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 23 of 43 | 53% | 16 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Dan Argueta | 22 of 48 | 45% | 19 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.
Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.
Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.
Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.
Paul picks Jackson, citing his experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes Argueta's short notice, weight class move, and recent five-round war. He thinks Jackson's grappling and striking are superior and expects a finish or dominant decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 32 of 78 | 41% | 51 of 102 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 5:37 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 60 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 31 of 77 | 40% | 36 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 22 of 53 | 41% | 23 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 15 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:38 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 37 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 32 of 78 | 41% | 22 of 61 | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 22 of 54 | 40% | 14 of 43 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 49 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 31 of 77 | 40% | 21 of 60 | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 22 of 53 | 41% | 14 of 42 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 48 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Damon Jackson but is worried about his chin. He notes that Jackson is the better offensive wrestler and more technical striker, but Kirk has more power and Jackson can be chinny. He hopes Jackson sticks to a grapple-heavy game plan, similar to how Amira Connelly took Kirk down five times. He calls it a worrisome pick and says he wouldn't bet heavily on it.
Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by second-round submission. He highlights Jackson's relentless pace and cardio, which he believes will break Kirk as the fight goes on, similar to what Billy Quarantillo did. He notes Jackson's 90% finish rate and that he has never lost a decision, but also has a questionable chin. He thinks Kirk could win inside the distance but expects Jackson to finish him in the second or third round.
Cody leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.
Daniel Levi leans with Kamuela Kirk, citing that Kirk is the younger, hungrier fighter and that Damon Jackson has vulnerabilities, including being dropped and cut. He thinks Kirk's cardio issues from the Billy Q fight won't be as pronounced because Jackson doesn't push a high pace. Levi expects a close, back-and-forth fight but sees Kirk out-hustling down the stretch.
Jackson is a pressure grappler with good cardio and top control. He will look to take Kirk down and grind him out. Kirk is a well-rounded fighter but may struggle with Jackson's relentless wrestling. Jackson is predicted to win via decision, with the decision line at plus 205 noted.
Paul leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.
The MMA Guru picks Kamuela Kirk as an underdog over Damon Jackson, going against the majority. He highlights Kirk's ground game off his back, including a triangle choke, and a massive stand-up advantage. He notes that Kirk worked off the bottom against Makwan Amirkhani and didn't let him pass guard. He believes Kirk will out-hustle Jackson in a close decision, with damage favoring Kirk over Jackson's control time.
Dan Argueta - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Haddon | 0 | 54 of 140 | 38% | 65 of 151 | 4 of 24 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 140 of 280 | 50% | 148 of 288 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Haddon | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 45 of 95 | 47% | 46 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Cody Haddon | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 20 of 42 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 37 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | Cody Haddon | 0 | 27 of 64 | 42% | 27 of 64 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 64 of 121 | 52% | 65 of 122 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Haddon | 54 of 140 | 38% | 34 of 114 | 13 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 42 of 114 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 8 |
| Dan Argueta | 140 of 280 | 50% | 100 of 232 | 38 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 130 of 268 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Haddon | 16 of 43 | 37% | 10 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 36 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Argueta | 45 of 95 | 47% | 35 of 82 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 44 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Haddon | 11 of 33 | 33% | 8 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 |
| Dan Argueta | 31 of 64 | 48% | 20 of 52 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Cody Haddon | 27 of 64 | 42% | 16 of 50 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 53 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 3 |
| Dan Argueta | 64 of 121 | 52% | 45 of 98 | 18 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 57 of 114 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Haddon (-185), Argueta (+154)
Round 1
Shifting gears to what was supposed to be a bantamweight contest, Argueta (9-2, 2 NC; 1-2, 2 NC UFC) failed to make weight and surrendered 20% of his purse to Australian debutant Haddon (7-1, 0-0 UFC). The 139-pound catchweight contest will be overseen by referee Jason Herzog, who clocks the fighters in as there is no plan for a glove tough. It takes the fighters mere seconds to get after it, with Argueta hoping to impose his will by getting right in Haddon’s face throwing hands. Haddon obliges the slugfest, and they swing for the fences early. As Argueta lands cleanly, he sets up a takedown perfectly, stripping Haddon’s legs out and putting him on his seat. Haddon slowly, calmly works his way up, and he engages further with the heavy American. Argueta tags his man on the temple with a right hand, and he crashes forward to change levels. Haddon turns to lean against the fencing to remain upright, and Argueta wrenches him down to his knees momentarily. Haddon climbs back upright using the wall to force his way up, and Argueta is doggedly determined to get him down. Haddon wants nothing to do with it, and he opens up with a long combination of punches as Argueta swings his way into level changes. Haddon clips Argueta with a left hand, forcing Argueta to shoot in deep. Haddon defends the attempt and snaps off several sharp jabs and leg kicks to back Argueta up against the fence. Argueta loads up on power strikes, and he stumbles Haddon with an overhand right. Haddon shakes it off and comes back with clubbing strikes that sting Argueta. Argueta lands cleanly and jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and Haddon squirms his way free and stands up. They resume their ill-advised strategy of standing and banging, and Haddon picks his shots carefully to rip a left to the body and a right to the head. Haddon rings Argueta’s bell, meeting Argueta’s attempts to take the fight down with crisp uppercuts. Haddon shoves Argueta against the wall to knee him with big blows, and Argueta works his way out but cannot dodge the jabs coming en masse. Argueta slips one and counters with a right hand over the top, and the two are simply hammering each other with no regard to conditioning. The frenetic-paced round ends with both men throwing hands.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Round 2
It is right back to the races for these fighters, who continue to fight as if the match is five minutes long. Haddon is the more accurate of the two but by no means avoiding power strikes hurled back his direction. A glancing right hand from Argueta opens a cut on the hairline of the Australian, and he pays it no mind as he strikes his way into a takedown. “The Determined” is filled with determination, muscling his way back to his feet, turning Haddon around and depositing him on his back. Argueta starts to get some ground-and-pound going while Haddon looks for a kimura sweep or other kind of escape. As Haddon looks to work his way up, Argueta stays on him, never allowing the newcomer a moment to breathe or reset. Haddon stands, and Argueta lifts him up from behind to drop him to his hands. Argueta lifts Haddon up with a mighty single and throws him to the mat, but Haddon is a man possessed and he wants to keep trading. Exploding back to striking range, Haddon pays his man back with a series of punches. Argueta dives low for a takedown, and Haddon blasts him in the face with a knee that is about as clean as it can be. Argueta somehow tanks it, and he goes after a takedown that transitions into a low-percentage front choke. Haddon shucks out of it and clubs Argueta with combinations. Argueta aims several to the body, and Haddon gives him a knee back to the chest to think about. A solid leg kick from Argueta sweeps the leg, and Haddon frowns and lines up a right hand to stun Argueta. With Argueta backed against the wall, Haddon comes at him with fists and a knee before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Haddon
Round 3
When the round begins, Argueta slugs Haddon in the face with a huge left hand. Haddon does not even blink, instead releasing his own heavy right hand that slams into the side of Argueta’s melon. The two batter one another with power blows, and Haddon flicks out two jabs, uses his head movement to dodge the counters and stonewalls a takedown. Haddon spins with a back fist that bounces off the raised guard, and Argueta says “two can play that game” and answers with a spinning back elbow that partially connects. Argueta lumbers forward, flailing big strikes, and Haddon picks him off and tags him with accurate blows. Haddon measures an elbow up top, fighting off a tie-up from the New Mexican so he can rip combinations. Argueta stumbles to the side, but he keeps throwing heat. Haddon lets Argueta overswing so he can ding him with single counters, until Argueta boots him in the front leg and drops him. Argueta pulls back right before unleashing what would have been an illegal soccer kick, and Haddon stands back up. Argueta uses Haddon’s forward momentum against him to land power strikes, but Haddon is right in his face popping him again and again. Argueta’s blows become more labored and telegraphed as he fatigues, and Haddon is still on point with strikes but unable to stop Argueta from taking him down. Haddon crawls his way back up, scoring two quick punches before Argueta rushes after him to re-engage a clinch. Argueta drops low for a takedown, fails and transitions into another attempt, and then one more. Haddon remains upright for all of them, pushing Argueta to the center of the cage and breaking. Haddon jabs and lumps Argueta up with straight strikes, not exposing himself with too much power to throw himself off-balance. The Aussie turns the tables on the charging Argueta, putting Argueta on his back after an attempt. Argueta scrambles to his feet and pursues a few more that come up short before the final bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Haddon (30-27 Haddon)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Haddon (30-27 Haddon)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Haddon (30-27 Haddon)
The Official Result
Cody Haddon def. Dan Argueta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is torn on this fight, initially leaning toward Daniel Argueta due to his wrestling and game plan, but he worries that Cody Haddon's scramble skills could frustrate Argueta. He ultimately leans toward Haddon as the prospect, but admits he is not confident and will not bet on this fight. He notes that Argueta is a good dog but doesn't trust him to win.
Big Brady picks Daniel Argueta as an underdog at +155, expecting a close fight that goes to decision. He acknowledges Cody Haddon is a good fighter with crisp striking and a BJJ black belt, but sees Argueta's path to victory through wrestling, as Argueta lands nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes. He notes Haddon's long flight from Australia and Argueta's superior competition. He worries about corrupt judges favoring control over damage, so he prefers the plus money.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Haddon's only UFC win was against a poor athlete, and now he faces a much better athlete in Argueta. He points out that Argueta is a brute force fighter who crashes into opponents, and Haddon may struggle with the pressure. Connor thinks the winner will be the one who comes forward.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Daniel is impressed by Haddon's Contender Series performance and his well-rounded skills. He notes Argueta's strength in grappling but poor standup and cardio. Daniel thinks Haddon's pace and versatility will be the difference, but he is not confident enough to lay the price due to Haddon's UFC debut and potential jet lag.
Argueta is a wrestler who chains his takedown attempts together and has a great gas tank for 15 minutes. Haddon has not faced a grapple-heavy approach like Argueta's. If Argueta can avoid Haddon's striking and slick BJJ, he should keep Haddon on the defensive and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Cody Haddon, praising his talent and potential. He references Haddon's close fight with Steve Erceg, noting his scrambling ability, and his impressive win over Billy Brand on the Contender Series. He criticizes Daniel Argueta for lacking finishing potential and stalling against the cage, and notes that Haddon has great scrambles to counter Argueta's grappling.
Zane picks Argueta for his raw physicality, comparing him to a wrecking ball. He notes that Argueta overwhelms opponents with athleticism, as seen against Ronnie Lawrence and Nikki Ure. Zane thinks Haddon's lack of athleticism and slow foot speed will be a problem, especially if he gets pressured. He believes Argueta's constant aggression will be too much.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 39 of 69 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 6:01 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 29 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 26 of 41 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 13 of 28 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 21 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 14 of 39 | 35% | 13 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
| Dan Argueta | 19 of 35 | 54% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 13 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Dan Argueta | 6 of 12 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 8 of 23 | 34% | 7 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Dan Argueta | 13 of 23 | 56% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-185), Argueta (+154)
Round 1
Bantamweights take the stage next as Argueta (9-1, 2 NC; 1-1, 2 NC UFC) tries to get back in the win column after two unusual events resulting in no contests. Against him will be the debuting undefeated Matsumoto (14-0, 0-0 UFC), who will likely welcome any grappling that Argueta brings to the table. Joining them in the Octagon will be referee Jason Herzog, who clocks them in as they decide against touching gloves. Argueta circles around on the outside while Matsumoto holds the center of the cage, and he swings his way in with a clubbing left hand so he can shoot in on the hips. Argueta manages to drag the unbeaten fighter down, and Matsumoto leans up against the wall and starts getting hammered with elbows and punches. Matsumoto looks to work his way up, and Argueta drags him down and continues smacking him around with his free right hand. Matsumoto gets back to his feet, and Argueta quickly trips him out down to a knee. When Matsumoto stands once more, Argueta hits a trip and lands right in full mount. Argueta opens up with elbows and punches, and Matsumoto uses every bit of his energy to explode and reverse the position to stand back up and grab Argueta from behind. Matsumoto looks to wrest Argueta down, and he even lifts the American up, but Argueta does not go down. On a third effort, Matsumoto succeeds in putting Argueta on his back, but only for a moment before Argueta gets back up and turns the tables to toss Matsumoto down. Matsumoto regathers himself and pursues a deep single, and Argueta defends with a kimura in an attempt to sweep. Matsumoto still lands on top, but Argueta turns him over and they get back to their feet. Argueta chases his man down, walking him from one side of the cage to the other before shooting in on a double. Matsumoto sprawls and puts the wall behind him, but Argueta still manages to cinch up Matsumoto’s leg to ground him. Matsumoto fights his way back up and takes a flush knee. Matsumoto gathers himself and lands a leg kick that flusters Argueta, and he rushes after Argueta and kicks him in the face to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Argueta
Round 2
Argueta rushes out of his corner to start off the second round, where he charges for a double and evades a knee by a whisker. Argueta succeeds in stripping Matsumoto’s base and putting him on the mat, but briefly. When Matsumoto climbs up, Argueta lands a mat return. Matsumoto bounces off the floor as if he had springs in his trunks, and Argueta stays tightly pressed against him as he continues to pursue his grappling. Matsumoto gets his hand slapped for grabbing the fence, and Argueta works his way around to take the back. Matsumoto turns around and splits his hips to preemptively prevent a takedown, only for Argueta to still take him down. Argueta’s landed takedown quantity may be high, but his ground control time is limited. Matsumoto counters an advancing Argueta with a right hand, disrupting the takedown as Argueta did not like taking that strike flush. Matsumoto slips and scores a low kick, and he cracks “The Determined” with a right hand that stands him up. Argueta gathers his thoughts and runs face-first into the hips to secure a takedown. Lacing Matsumoto’s legs beneath his own, Argueta keeps Matsumoto down until Matsumoto turns things around and somehow stands and lowers himself to get a single. Argueta stands up and Matsumoto slides out the back door, and he goes after a double but is stood up by the undefeated fighter. Argueta hits his knees for a different approach, and he lets go and stands up to throw hands. Landing a few and getting caught with a right hand, Argueta then decides to stop trading and go after another takedown. Matsumoto stops it in its tracks and pushes him back, and he checks a leg kick and dings Argueta with a right hand when Argueta lands after a missed flying knee.
Argueta dives after a single, and Matsumoto jumps guard with a guillotine choke with seconds to go. Argueta punches the hip as Matsumoto rolls to lock up the guillotine in mount. Argueta taps out and goes out, and he wakes up on top surprised as Herzog tends to him.
This is the first time that Argueta has been finished as a pro, and Matsumoto does it in a big way as he might have been down two rounds had they reached the third. In his successful promotional debut, Matsumoto’s record now reaches 15-0 with one more guillotine added on his ledger.
The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Dan Argueta R2 4:59 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Dan Argueta despite the line movement making him a big underdog. He believes Argueta's pressure and wrestling will be too much for Jean Matsumoto, who is a Contender Series prospect. He notes that Matsumoto beat a wrestler on Contender Series but thinks Argueta is a different animal. He mentions that Argueta's pressure is bigger and better than anything Matsumoto has seen, and that Matsumoto will have to defend every takedown. Angelo is watching the line movement and may bet Argueta if the odds get better.
Big Brady picks Dan Argueta as a live dog, noting that Matsumoto has a tendency to play off his back too much and can be taken down. While Matsumoto is the better striker, Argueta has the wrestling to get the fight to the mat and potentially win two out of three rounds. Brady sees a grinding decision win for Argueta.
Cody also picks Matsumoto, noting Argueta's inconsistency and tendency to gas. He thinks Argueta will get takedowns early, but Matsumoto's submission threat off his back and striking advantage will allow him to take over late. Cody is wary of Argueta's power wrestling but believes Matsumoto's youth and skill will prevail.
Daniel Vreeland leans slightly toward Jean Matsumoto, citing his upside and striking combinations. He acknowledges Dan Argueta's wrestling and physicality will likely win the first round, but questions Argueta's cardio if he expends too much energy early. Vreeland believes if Matsumoto can survive the early grappling, he can pick Argueta apart on the feet in later rounds and edge out a decision.
Matsumoto is a bright prospect with great all-around skills, especially striking. He has solid defensive grappling and should be able to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet. His combination striking and leg kicks will damage Argueta, who relies on wrestling but lacks striking. Matsumoto wins by decision.
Paul picks Matsumoto but is hesitant. He likes Matsumoto's striking and BJJ, but notes Argueta is a strong wrestler early. Paul thinks if Argueta doesn't get the takedown early or gasses, Matsumoto will take over. He sees Matsumoto as a future contender but acknowledges Argueta's early danger.
The host calls Argueta awful, citing losses to Miles Johns and a no-contest with Ronnie Lawrence. He praises Matsumoto as an undefeated prospect with wicked striking, low kicks, strong hips, and good takedown defense. He notes Matsumoto's small size (5'5") may help stuff takedowns. He predicts a decision win where Matsumoto does more damage than Argueta's control time, but also mentions Matsumoto has good submissions from stuffing takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 33 of 85 | 38% | 38 of 95 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Miles Johns | 0 | 43 of 92 | 46% | 52 of 104 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Miles Johns | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 2 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Miles Johns | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 23 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 | |
| 3 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Miles Johns | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 33 of 85 | 38% | 20 of 67 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 70 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 7 |
| Miles Johns | 43 of 92 | 46% | 32 of 77 | 5 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 40 of 84 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Miles Johns | 8 of 21 | 38% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | Dan Argueta | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Miles Johns | 14 of 28 | 50% | 10 of 22 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Dan Argueta | 14 of 39 | 35% | 9 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Miles Johns | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo trusts Argueta's wrestling-first game plan and believes Johns' takedown defense is inflated because he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. He expects Argueta to stay on the hips and outwork Johns. Pretty confident pick.
Big Brady picks Miles Johns as an underdog, calling the fight close and likely to go to decision. He likes Johns' defensive wrestling and striking defense, and notes Johns has power and out-lands opponents despite low volume. He thinks Argueta may have wrestling success later as Johns slows down, but believes Johns can win at least two rounds. He prefers the plus money.
Cody picks Dan Argueta, impressed by his toughness and grappling. He notes Argueta's strong wrestling and submission threats, while Johns has cardio issues and slows down. He believes Argueta's pressure and pace will overwhelm Johns in later rounds.
Daniel picks Argueta but without strong conviction. He thinks Johns has been a letdown in the UFC, with low output and a tendency to break under pressure. He questions whether Argueta can push the pace needed to break Johns, but believes Argueta's hunger and takedown volume might be enough. He acknowledges the line is close to accurate and is not betting it.
Lucrative James likes Miles Johns at the line, calling it an overcorrection. He thinks Johns can defend takedowns early and has power on the feet. He notes Johns is a good wrestler himself and could get takedowns. He sees the fight as close, possibly a pick'em, but favors Johns.
The host picks Argueta at minus 170, calling it a gift line. He praises Argueta's wrestling, cardio, and pressure, expecting him to wear on Johns and pull away late. He notes Johns' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Argueta is superior in grappling and pace. He predicts a decision win for Argueta after a close first round.
Paul picks Argueta but prefers live betting. He worries about Argueta's low volume and Johns's 92% takedown defense. He thinks Johns may win early rounds but Argueta's cardio advantage could take over. He is interested in Argueta by submission or round 3 prop.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Argueta, criticizing Miles Johns' weak strength of schedule, noting his opponents include Kevin Natividad and Anderson dos Santos. He praises Argueta's training at Jackson Wink MMA, his judo background, and his toughness in taking Damon Jackson to a close decision. He believes Argueta is a gradually improving fighter with good hips and strength, while Johns has plateaued. He expects Argueta to win via grappling and pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 12 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 2:08 |
| Ronnie Lawrence | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 12 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 2:08 |
| Ronnie Lawrence | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 4 of 4 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Ronnie Lawrence | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 4 of 4 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Ronnie Lawrence | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dan Argueta as a low confidence underdog. He notes that Ronnie Lawrence is a great offensive wrestler but struggled when pressured in his last fight. Argueta's forward pressure and wrestling could cause similar issues. Angelo likes the plus 135 moneyline but hasn't bet yet, saying he's keeping an eye on it.
Big Brady picks Ronnie Lawrence to win by decision. He is high on Lawrence, praising his relentless wrestling, cardio, and underrated striking. Lawrence averages 7 takedowns per 15 minutes with 77% accuracy. Argueta is also a wrestler, but Brady thinks Lawrence's relentless pace will be too much. He notes that Lawrence can attempt 20+ takedowns if needed. He disagrees with the initial -550 opener for Lawrence, saying -155 is about right, but still expects Lawrence to win a decision.
Cody picks Lawrence, noting that despite his poor takedown performance against Said Khamzatov, he got up nine times and learned from the experience. He thinks Lawrence is a talented striker with good footwork and speed, and that Argueta's takedown defense is not great and his volume is low. Cody believes Lawrence can stuff takedowns and win on the feet.
Connor picks Argueta, arguing that Lawrence is not a strong athlete and will struggle with Argueta's strength and wrestling. He notes that Argueta is a featherweight cutting down and will be able to spend time on top. Connor believes Lawrence will give up tie-ups and Argueta will end up in dominant positions. He expects Argueta to grind out a decision or get a late finish.
Daniel Levi picks Ronnie Lawrence, citing his significant striking edge and power. He notes Argueta's poor striking defense and cardio issues. He acknowledges Lawrence's bad loss to Saydokub but attributes it to a broken nose and tough opponent. He got Lawrence at -150 and thinks he wins at a decent clip, though weight cut concerns exist.
Argueta has superior technical wrestling compared to Lawrence, who is more of a pace-based wrestler. Lawrence's takedown-heavy style may not work against a better wrestler like Argueta. Argueta can get top position and grind out a decision. The plus 155 underdog line offers value.
Paul is tempted by Argueta at plus money, noting that Lawrence has been rocked before and that Argueta is a strong grappler with low center of gravity. He thinks this fight is best approached live, as the first wrestling exchanges will reveal a lot. He picks Argueta for the show but is not confident pre-fight.
The MMA Guru picks Ronnie Lawrence, stating a massive talent difference. He argues Lawrence should not have been cut from the UFC after a close loss to Said Nurmagomedov, and that Dan Argueta lacks the power to trouble Lawrence. He praises Lawrence's transitions and scrambling, expecting him to be too much for Argueta's simple style.
Zane picks Lawrence, describing Argueta as slow and cumbersome, loading up on single shots. He believes Lawrence's tricky karate-style striking and scrambling will befuddle Argueta. Zane notes that Lawrence's first layer of offense is more capable of confusing Argueta than vice versa. He expects Lawrence to land more impressive shots and win a competitive fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 47 of 85 | 55% | 93 of 144 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 | 1 | 10:14 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 15 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 15 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3:24 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:15 | |
| 2 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 38 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dan Argueta | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 40 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 5 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Argueta | 47 of 85 | 55% | 29 of 65 | 9 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 55 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 21 |
| Nick Aguirre | 14 of 44 | 31% | 14 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Argueta | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 |
| Nick Aguirre | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dan Argueta | 25 of 37 | 67% | 12 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 |
| Nick Aguirre | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dan Argueta | 17 of 40 | 42% | 13 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 9 |
| Nick Aguirre | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Argueta, believing his wrestling will be too much for the short-notice debutant. He notes Aguirre's opponents had poor records and he hasn't faced a wrestler like Argueta. He thinks Argueta's takedowns and pressure will lead to a finish. He has a small bet on the under 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Isaac Dulgarian (incorrectly named as 'Isaac dogarion' in transcript) as an upset, liking his wrestling, submission game, and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Dulgarian has faced weak competition and hasn't seen the second round, but believes his skills will translate. He points out that Argueta has been taken down easily by wrestlers like Damon Jackson and Diego Silva, and that Dulgarian should be able to control him on the mat. He predicts a first-round finish for Dulgarian.
Cody leans towards Aguirre as a live underdog, citing Argueta's poor get-up game and Aguirre's BJJ. He thinks the line is off and Aguirre could win if he gets takedowns. However, he admits uncertainty and is not betting heavily.
Connor picks Argueta as well, citing the short notice replacement and Argueta's experience. He notes that Argueta is a good pocket puncher but has a monofocus, and that the fight could be ugly if Aguirre can't get takedowns. Connor seems less confident than Zane, but still leans Argueta.
Jacob agrees Argueta should win, calling it a good matchup. He notes Aguirre is a slightly better striker but Argueta's wrestling is superior. He thinks Argueta's game plan remains the same and he should control the fight. He likes the under 2.5 value.
Paul picks Argueta but is not confident due to the steep price. He notes Argueta's strength and wrestling, but acknowledges Aguirre is unproven. He is not betting this fight.
Zane picks Argueta based on his extra experience, noting that Argueta is a good pocket puncher with solid power and has shown some wrestling ability. However, he is concerned that Argueta is monofocused on punching and untested, and that Aguirre could take him down and submit him. Zane also mentions that Argueta lost to Damon Jackson by getting his back taken, which is a worry against Aguirre's grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 32 of 53 | 60% | 47 of 71 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 10:25 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 27 of 59 | 45% | 103 of 141 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:14 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 33 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 14 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 32 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:13 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 43 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 32 of 53 | 60% | 23 of 44 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 40 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 |
| Dan Argueta | 27 of 59 | 45% | 24 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 42 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Argueta | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 9 of 10 | 90% | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
| Dan Argueta | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 23 of 43 | 53% | 16 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Dan Argueta | 22 of 48 | 45% | 19 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.
Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.
Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.
Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.
Paul picks Jackson, citing his experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes Argueta's short notice, weight class move, and recent five-round war. He thinks Jackson's grappling and striking are superior and expects a finish or dominant decision.
Expert Picks (5)
Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.
Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.
Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.
Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.
Paul picks Jackson, citing his experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes Argueta's short notice, weight class move, and recent five-round war. He thinks Jackson's grappling and striking are superior and expects a finish or dominant decision.
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