UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes confidently, citing his dominant wrestling and astronomical takedown numbers. He notes that Blaydes took down Rosenstriuk, Volkov, and others multiple times. He thinks Chris Daukaus' boxing and BJJ won't matter because he won't be able to settle into a rhythm with the constant takedown threat. He sees Blaydes winning a grueling fight.

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by second or third round TKO. He notes that Blaydes has a massive wrestling advantage and will take Daukaus down at will, as Daukaus has shown poor takedown defense in earlier fights. He also mentions that Daukaus has no submissions on his record, so he won't threaten off his back. Brady acknowledges that Daukaus could knock Blaydes out, but Blaydes has only lost to Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis, two of the hardest hitters in the division, so he doesn't see Daukaus doing the same.

Cody agrees Blaydes should win but is wary of the price. He highlights Daukaus' cardio issues and poor chin, and Blaydes' ability to grind with takedowns and elbows. He thinks Blaydes could get a TKO finish due to his weight and pressure. He notes Daukaus has a puncher's chance but sees Blaydes as the logical pick.

Daniel Levi picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his relentless takedown attempts and wrestling pressure as the key factor. He notes that Blaydes attempted 25 takedowns against Volkov and landed 14, and that fighters who keep shooting without discouragement are matchup problems. He acknowledges Daukaus has improved his physique and takedown defense is unknown, but believes Blaydes will implement his game plan and likely win by ground-and-pound stoppage. He also mentions Blaydes could catch Daukaus on the feet if Daukaus is too worried about the takedown.

The host is very confident in Blaydes, believing his wrestling and strength will overwhelm Daukaus. He notes Daukaus lacks the power of Lewis or Ngannou, and that Blaydes can win on the feet or via takedowns. He expects a finish by round 2 or 3 via ground and pound.

Paul sees Blaydes as a clear favorite due to his wrestling advantage and size. He expects Blaydes to be cautious early but then dominate with takedowns and ground control. He notes Blaydes' chin is compromised but believes he will avoid danger and grind out a win. He considers Blaydes a solid parlay piece early in the week.

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round arm triangle submission over Chris Daukaus. He cites Blaydes' size and wrestling advantage, noting Daukaus hasn't shown his black belt jiu-jitsu in the UFC. The Guru expects Blaydes to be calm due to Daukaus' lack of intimidation, get a double leg, and grind out a submission. He criticizes the 4-1 odds as making betting pointless.

Angelo picks Joanne Wood as a pretty big underdog. He thinks the books are not giving her enough credit. He notes that while Alexa Grasso is undefeated at 125, Wood has only fought top competition and is incredibly well-rounded. He believes Grasso cannot bully or knock out Wood like her previous opponents did.

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He argues that Wood has excellent volume (6.71 significant strikes per minute) and can mix in takedowns, while Grasso has poor takedown defense (60%) and has been taken down by wrestlers like Suarez and Esparza. He notes that Wood's last loss was to Talia Santos, who is a beast, and that Wood looked good before that, including a win over Jessica Eye. He admits Wood might be washed but thinks the line is off.

Cody leans Grasso but acknowledges Wood's volume striking and durability. He notes Wood's technical boxing is poor and she gets hit clean, while Grasso lands sharper shots. He mentions Wood's recent losses and age, but thinks the fight could be close. He expects Grasso to win but not confidently.

Daniel Levi picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her improvement since moving up to flyweight, faster hands, and growing confidence. He notes Joanne Wood is hot-and-cold and may have mentally checked out after losing her title shot. He expects Grasso to win but cautions that the line at -235 is steep, and the fight could be a close decision due to poor judging. He suggests betting Grasso only if under -200.

The host picks Grasso but is not confident, citing her lack of finishing ability and the possibility of a close decision. He notes Wood's volume could sway judges if Grasso doesn't land significant strikes. He prefers the 'fight goes to decision' prop over the moneyline.

Paul picks Grasso but doesn't love the price. He thinks Wood's volume striking and front kicks could cause problems, but Grasso has improved her grappling and is younger. He sees the fight as close and competitive, possibly a split decision. He wouldn't fault someone for taking Wood as an underdog.

The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso over Joanne Wood, calling Grasso a much better boxer with superior hands, defense, footwork, and chin at this stage. He notes Wood's recent KO loss and quick turnaround, and believes Grasso will get a submission win, possibly a d'arce choke, after hurting Wood on the feet. The Guru acknowledges Wood's volume could be a factor but trusts Grasso's technical edge.

Angelo picks Bryan Barberena, citing his durability, impressive volume, and forward pressure. He notes Barberena landed 108 strikes in his last fight and 169 against Vicente Luque. He thinks Barberena's constant volume will be the difference and expects a decision win. He says he probably won't bet on this fight.

Big Brady picks Matt Brown to knock out Bryan Barberena in the first or second round. He believes Barberena is washed after the Luke fight, citing poor takedown defense and being dropped twice by Jason Witt. He notes that Brown still has power, as shown in his last fight against Lima, and that Barberena's chin is no longer reliable. Brady also mentions that Barberena has health issues and has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

Cody strongly favors Matt Brown, highlighting Barberena's declining durability and poor takedown defense. He notes Barberena's recent wars and losses, while Brown still has power and timing. He thinks Brown can win by KO or decision. He calls it his first bet of the week.

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting he is biased as a fan. He believes Brown is the better fighter with more finishing ability and can mix in takedowns. He notes both fighters are on the decline but thinks Brown's power and hometown crowd will carry him. He is hesitant because of Brown's age and chin, and Barberena's durability. He also points out Barberena hasn't looked the same since the Luque fight.

The host picks Barberena, noting his youth, body punching (30% of strikes to body), and Matt Brown's known body vulnerability. He expects a striking battle and believes Barberena will get a knockout, possibly in round 3 as Brown slows down. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

Paul picks Matt Brown, citing his wrestling advantage and Barberena's inability to stop takedowns. He notes Brown's hometown crowd and experience. He thinks Brown can grind out a win or land a big shot. He expects the line to move and hopes for plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown by second-round TKO over Bryan Barberena. He envisions Barberena slightly edging the first round before getting caught with a big overhand. The Guru trusts Brown's power and recent resurgence, noting his second-round finish of Diego Lima, while Barberena's wars may leave him vulnerable.

Angelo picks Askar Askarov, calling him a beast with Dagestani wrestling and submissions. He thinks Askarov's relentless grappling and willingness to strike will be too much for Kai Kara-France. He predicts a close but clear decision, likely 29-28. He also mentions a prop bet on Kara-France plus 3.5 points.

Big Brady picks Askar Askarov to grind out a decision win. He highlights Askarov's relentless wrestling and grappling, noting that he took down Joseph Benavidez five times and controlled him, and also took down Brandon Moreno and Pantoja. He acknowledges that Kai Kara-France has power and knocked out Cody Garbrandt, but believes Askarov will mix in takedowns and not give France many opportunities to strike. He expects a close decision.

Cody picks Askarov but is wary of the line. He notes Askarov's close fights against top competition and Kara-France's recent KO wins over faded opponents. He thinks Askarov's wrestling and durability will be factors, but Kara-France's power is a threat. He expects a competitive fight with Askarov winning.

Daniel Levi picks Askar Askarov, citing his elite wrestling and control. He notes Askarov's wins over top competition (Moreno, Pantoja, Benavidez) and his ability to grind out decisions. He acknowledges Kara-France has KO power and could land a lucky shot, but believes Askarov's grappling will be the difference. He thinks the line at -350 is fair but not a betting opportunity.

Paul picks Askarov but is concerned about the price. He notes Askarov's fights are often competitive and he's been in close decisions. He thinks Askarov's wrestling and striking mix will be key, but Kara-France has power and could test his chin. He expects Askarov to win but not easily.

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France by KO over Askar Askarov, praising Kara-France's takedown defense and jiu-jitsu defense. He notes that Askarov has struggled to ground elite grapplers like Moreno and Pantoja, and believes Kara-France's momentum and striking will be the difference. The Guru predicts Askarov will leave his chin open after failed takedowns, leading to a KO win for Kara-France as an underdog.

Angelo picks Neil Magny but calls it a razor thin fight that should be closer to a pick'em. He acknowledges Magny is more well-rounded but notes Max Griffin's 70% takedown defense and power in his hands pose real danger. He thinks the odds are too wide in Magny's favor.

Big Brady picks Neil Magny to win by decision. He cites Magny's advantages in height, reach, experience, and competition level. He notes that Griffin has been looking good but against lower-level opponents, and that Griffin doesn't wrestle enough to exploit Magny's takedown defense. Brady believes Magny will win wherever the fight goes.

Cody agrees with Magny, highlighting his cardio and grappling advantage. He thinks Magny can control the fight with takedowns and pressure. He notes Griffin's power but believes Magny's volume and wrestling will be decisive.

Daniel Levi picks Neil Magny, noting his length, volume, and underrated wrestling. He says Magny is a nightmare matchup for most and has a history of overperforming as an underdog. He respects Griffin's resurgence but thinks Magny's fight IQ and experience will edge him out. He would not lay -230 but would have taken Magny at under -190.

The host is very confident in Magny, praising his pressure, clinch work, and durability. He believes Magny will push Griffin backwards, beat him in the clinch and on the ground, and that Griffin cannot handle Magny's pace. He calls the line a gift and expects a dominant decision win.

Paul picks Magny, citing his cardio, durability, and wrestling. He thinks Magny can out-volume Griffin and take him down. He notes Griffin's lack of takedown defense against wrestlers. He sees Magny as a solid parlay piece.

The MMA Guru picks Neil Magny over Max Griffin, despite sensing a possible Griffin upset. He notes Griffin's close contests with lesser opponents and red flags in his record, while Magny has beaten ranked opponents and has a reach advantage. The Guru predicts Magny will win a 29-28 decision using control time against the cage, body shots, and takedowns, though he acknowledges Griffin could land calf kicks early.

Angelo picks Viacheslav Borshchev, calling him the more technical striker. He notes that while Marc Diakiese has more power, Borshchev's kickboxing background and technical ability should control the fight. He mentions Borshchev needs to avoid Diakiese's leg kicks and power. He may throw a moneyline bet despite the 2-1 odds.

Big Brady picks Viacheslav Borshchev to win by decision, but is not overly confident. He likes Borshchev's striking and volume, but is concerned about his takedown defense, as he gets taken down in every fight. However, he notes that Borshchev has an elite get-up game and can get back to his feet. He thinks Diakiese can make it competitive with takedowns, but Borshchev will win the striking exchanges.

Cody picks Borshchev, disagreeing with the line. He criticizes Diakiese's inconsistency and poor performances as a favorite. He likes Borshchev's pressure, power, and ability to get up from takedowns. He thinks Borshchev will overwhelm Diakiese and get a finish.

Daniel Levi leans Viacheslav Borshchev, citing his superior boxing and striking. He notes Borshchev has defensive flaws on the ground but is training at Alpha Male to improve. He thinks Diakiese will get early takedowns but Borshchev will get back up and pull away on the feet. He is not betting the fight but picks Borshchev to win.

The host slightly favors Diakiese, citing his overall MMA game, experience against better competition, and the threat of takedowns that could disrupt Borshchev's striking. He notes Borshchev's body shot power but thinks Diakiese's speed and wrestling could be key. He expects a decision win for Diakiese.

Paul leans Diakiese as an underdog, citing recency bias on Borshchev. He notes Diakiese's close fight with a talented kickboxer and thinks the price is too high on Borshchev. He sees Diakiese getting back on track but isn't confident.

The MMA Guru picks Viacheslav Borshchev by late first-round TKO over Marc Diakiese. He believes Borshchev is better in the pocket and notes Diakiese's chin issues after being rocked by Rafael Alves. The Guru expects Diakiese to shoot for takedowns but Borshchev to work back up and land big shots, as he won't be as worried about the grappling threat as he was against Dakota Bush.

Angelo picks Sara McMann as a big underdog, acknowledging it could be a sucker bet. He believes McMann's wrestling will be the difference, as Karol Rosa lacks the offensive BJJ to submit her or the power to knock her out. He notes Rosa's high striking volume and takedown defense but thinks McMann can push the wrestling pace and win.

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa to win by third-round KO. He expects McMann to have early success with her wrestling, winning the first round, but then fade due to her age (41) and poor cardio. He believes Rosa will weather the storm and finish McMann late. He notes that McMann has been submitted four times in the UFC, but here he predicts a KO. He suggests live betting McMann in the first round.

Cody picks Rosa, expecting McMann to get takedowns early but fade. He notes McMann's history of blowing leads and getting submitted. He thinks Rosa is active off her back and will take over as the fight goes on. He likes Rosa at -225 better than Grasso at the same price.

Daniel Levi picks Karol Rosa confidently, highlighting her incredible striking volume (over 100 significant strikes in multiple fights) and youth. He breaks down McMann's flaws: poor fight IQ, questionable durability, and tendency to fade. He notes Rosa has improved her submission defense since early losses and earned a black belt. He expects Rosa to break McMann down as the fight progresses, possibly finishing her. He parlayed Rosa with Khizriev at -108.

The host picks McMann despite her age and gas tank issues, believing her wrestling and strength will be the difference. He notes Rosa's takedown defense hasn't been tested at UFC level and that McMann can grind out a decision. However, he admits he's not confident enough to bet it, calling it a 50/50 fight.

Paul picks Rosa but is hesitant. He notes McMann's elite wrestling and early takedowns, but expects her to fade. He thinks Rosa can out-volume her on the feet and possibly submit her. He suggests live betting Rosa after round one if McMann tires.

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa over Sara McMann, citing McMann's age (41) and inactivity since early 2021. He acknowledges McMann's grappling but believes Rosa is younger, more athletic, and technically sound, with a reach advantage. The Guru expects Rosa to control the fight against the cage and win a unanimous decision, as she doesn't leave herself out of position for takedowns.

Big Brady picks Aliaskhab Khizriev to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Khizriev is a beast with power and excellent wrestling and ground-and-pound, while Tiuliulin has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He acknowledges that Tiuliulin looks dangerous on the feet, but believes Khizriev will take him down and finish him. He also mentions that Khizriev is inactive and undersized, but still expects a dominant win.

Cody picks Khizriev, noting his layoff but blaming cancellations. He thinks Tiuliulin is outmatched and on short notice. He expects Khizriev to win quickly. He likes the price compared to other favorites.

Daniel Levi picks Aliaskhab Khizriev, stating he took him at -325 and parlayed him. He praises Khizriev's grappling, lower center of gravity, and ability to take the fight to the ground immediately. He notes Tiuliulin is a dangerous striker but expects Khizriev to submit him in the first round. He acknowledges the line has moved to -800 but is confident in his pick.

The host picks Khizriev but expresses concerns about his size at 185 lbs and the possibility of the fight going over 1.5 rounds. He notes Khizriev's Dagestani wrestling style and expects a TKO in the second or third round. He mentions Tiuliulin's padded record and short notice, but also that Tiuliulin is training at Extreme Couture and may be tougher than expected.

Paul picks Khizriev, expecting an early finish. He notes Khizriev's aggressive style and Tiuliulin's short notice. He thinks the price is high but justifiable. He considers Khizriev a good parlay piece.

The MMA Guru picks Aliaskhab Khizriev over Denis Tiuliulin, acknowledging Tiuliulin's KO power but noting he is a bottom-of-the-barrel short-notice replacement. He believes Khizriev is in his prime, more well-rounded, and has faced better competition, while Tiuliulin has failed at every step up in competition. The Guru predicts a submission win in the first round, but warns that if Khizriev gets KO'd early, Tiuliulin could pull the upset.

Angelo picks Manon Fiorot, citing her nasty striking, killer instinct, and finishing power. He notes that Jennifer Maia's 33% takedown accuracy and only two takedowns in eight UFC fights won't be enough to get her out of danger against Fiorot's striking. He acknowledges Maia's experience and well-roundedness but believes Fiorot's striking differential and ability to work back to her feet make the difference.

Big Brady picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision. He states that Maia does not use her grappling, averaging only 0.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, and will not win a striking fight against Fiorot. He notes that Fiorot is a big favorite and the line is widening. He cautions that Fiorot should not take Maia down, as Maia is dangerous off her back, but expects Fiorot to out-strike her.

Cody picks Fiorot, comparing her to Caitlin Chookagian who outpointed Maia. He notes Fiorot's mobility, karate background, and striking variety. He thinks Maia is slow and will be outpointed. He likes Fiorot by decision prop.

Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot, believing she will outpoint Maia with her sidekicks and volume. He notes Maia has the tools to win via takedowns but doesn't trust her to execute early enough. He thinks Fiorot is a legit prospect and will win on the scorecards, but the price (-400) is too high to bet. He calls it a dog or pass situation.

The host is high on Fiorot, citing her striking improvement, size advantage, and ability to replicate the game plan Catelyn Chookagian used against Maia. He expects Fiorot to keep the fight standing, use her speed and power, and potentially get a finish. He notes Maia is on short notice and that Fiorot's takedown defense and balance are strong.

Paul picks Fiorot, expecting her to win a decision. He notes her range weapons and pace will break Maia. He thinks Maia is durable but slow and flat-footed. He prefers Fiorot by decision prop.

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot over Jennifer Maia, calling it a massive risk that no one is talking about. He notes Maia's grappling ability (taking down Shevchenko for a round) but believes Fiorot's takedown defense and physical strength will hold up. The Guru expects Fiorot to cruise to a 30-27 decision with power shots, as Maia may be hesitant to press in due to the power difference.

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau but says his brain and gut are split. He notes that while David Dvořák is more comfortable everywhere, Nicolau has better wrestling and solid grappling, giving him more ways to win. He calls it razor thin.

Big Brady picks Matheus Nicolau as an underdog to win a close decision. He notes that Nicolau has fought better competition and is more well-rounded, with solid wrestling and BJJ. He is concerned about Nicolau's chin, as he has been knocked out twice, but believes he can mix in takedowns and win a competitive fight. He thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.

Cody agrees with Nicolau, noting his adaptability and wrestling. He thinks Dvořák is talented but untested. He expects Nicolau to implement a good game plan and win a decision.

Daniel Levi leans David Dvořák, citing Nicolau's questionable chin and confidence since the Dustin Ortiz KO. He thinks Dvořák's pressure and wrestling will grind out a close decision. He acknowledges Nicolau is a live dog and the fight could go either way, but slightly favors Dvořák.

The host favors Dvořák, praising his disciplined striking, combination punching, and takedown defense. He believes Nicolau will be outgunned on the feet and will need to take the fight to the ground to have success, but Dvořák's takedown defense looks good. He expects Dvořák to win a decision, noting that Nicolau has a good chin but will be put on his back foot.

Paul picks Nicolau as an underdog, citing his talent and game planning. He notes Dvořák's lower level of opposition and potential grappling issues. He thinks Nicolau can expose Dvořák's weaknesses and win a close fight.

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau as an underdog over David Dvořák, arguing that Nicolau is more well-rounded and has better performances against common opponents. He compares Nicolau's close decision loss to Manel Kape (who had a close fight with Alexandre Pantoja) to Dvořák's close decision win over Jordan Espinoza, favoring Nicolau's resume. The Guru also notes Nicolau's recent activity and age parity, predicting a decision win.

Angelo picks Luis Saldaña but calls it razor thin. He likes Saldaña's volume and pressure, noting that Bruno Souza's lack of urgency could cost him another decision. He acknowledges Souza's karate-style striking and countering ability but thinks Saldaña's volume will win him a decision if he picks his shots while applying pressure.

Big Brady picks Luis Saldaña to win a greasy decision. He notes that Souza has very low volume and doesn't do enough to win minutes, while Saldaña is the better striker with more tools. However, he is concerned about Saldaña's gas tank, as he slows down after the first round. He thinks Saldaña will still throw more volume than Souza and win a close decision.

Cody picks Saldaña, disagreeing with Paul. He criticizes Souza's low volume and lack of impressive wins. He thinks Saldaña's reach and kicks will be effective. He expects Saldaña to outpoint Souza in the first two rounds and survive the third.

Daniel Levi picks Luis Saldaña hesitantly, giving him one last chance. He notes Saldaña looks great early but fades, but thinks Souza's low-output karate style may not push the pace and cause Saldaña to gas. He is not betting the fight but picks Saldaña to win a decision if his cardio holds.

The host likes Saldaña slightly, noting that Souza tends to fight on the back foot, which will allow Saldaña to set the pace. He expects Saldaña's leg kicks and blitzing to be effective, and thinks Saldaña's durability will hold up. However, he acknowledges Saldaña's gas tank issues when pressured, but believes Souza won't pressure him. He predicts a decision win.

Paul picks Souza as an underdog, citing his karate style and ability to stay on the outside. He thinks Saldaña's cardio and takedown defense are concerns. He expects Souza to frustrate Saldaña and win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Bruno Souza over Luis Saldaña, citing Saldaña's fundamental issues with takedown defense and lack of strength for the featherweight division. He notes that Souza kept it competitive against a much better striker in Melcik Magnussarian, while Saldaña tends to slow down as fights progress. The Guru believes Souza's grappling advantage and ability to build into fights will earn him a split decision win, with Saldaña's only path being a TKO.