Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his experience and wrestling, though he notes Blaydes' poor chin and recent struggles. He is skeptical of Josh Hokit's level of competition and thinks Blaydes can survive early chaos and take over late. He stays away from betting due to the fight's unpredictability.

Big Brady is intrigued by Josh Barnett (Hokit) despite the massive step up in competition. He notes Blaydes has been knocked out five times and has stopped wrestling, while Barnett has shown pressure and power. He thinks Barnett could knock out Blaydes or get takedowns and ground-and-pound. He finds the line weird, expecting Blaydes to be a bigger favorite.

Cody also picks Hokit, emphasizing his athleticism, pace, and wrestling. He thinks Hokit's speed and pressure will overwhelm Blaydes, who has a history of knockout losses and is coming off a knee injury.

Connor picks Blaydes but is hesitant, noting that Blaydes has unlearned MMA by becoming overly technical and anxious. He points out that Hokit is a raw fighter with speed and power takedowns, but his striking is just bravado. Connor believes Blaydes should win by using his wrestling and pressure, but he worries that Blaydes' anxiety and tendency to overthink could lead to a loss. He says he won't be shocked if Blaydes loses, which is stupid for a fight like this.

Daniel Vreeland picks Josh Hokit as an underdog, citing Hokit's superior wrestling credentials, athleticism, and speed. He believes Blaydes' chin is compromised after multiple knockouts and that Hokit can catch him. However, he acknowledges the risk due to Blaydes' experience and reach, and is not as confident as his co-hosts.

Daniel is high on Hokit, comparing his style to a young Cain Velasquez. He thinks Blaydes is on the decline, chinny, and coming off a poor performance, while Hokit has better wrestling and faster hands.

The host believes Blaydes is a good bet because Hokit is an unknown who has never faced top competition, while Blaydes is arguably the best MMA grappler in the heavyweight division. He notes Hokit's striking looks flat and he lacks power, making it unlikely he can exploit Blaydes' weakness on the feet. Additionally, Hokit's cringey antics add pressure and performance anxiety, which historically few fighters handle well. He caps Blaydes at 60% chance of winning, providing value at the current odds.

James picks Blaydes due to his experience and ability to weather early pressure, expecting Hokit to fade after the first round. He acknowledges Hokit's potential but believes it's too soon for him.

Blaydes is a veteran with superior wrestling and experience. Hokit is a prospect but this is a massive step up in competition. Hokit's cardio is questionable after expending energy in previous fights. Blaydes can outwrestle and outpoint Hokit, and may even finish him in rounds 2 or 3. Hokit lacks the knockout power to threaten Blaydes, who only loses to elite power punchers.

Paul is very confident in Hokit, citing Blaydes' durability issues, knee injury, and Hokit's superior wrestling and pace. He believes Hokit will swarm Blaydes early and get a finish.

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes over Josh Hokit. He believes Blaydes is too composed and experienced, and Hokit's wins are over unranked heavyweights. He notes Blaydes moves well and has good grappling defense. He predicts a TKO in the second or third round, possibly catching Hokit coming in.

Angelo fades Curtis Blaydes, picking Rizvan Kuniev as a lean. He notes that Blaydes has abandoned wrestling and has a weak chin, while Kuniev is decent everywhere and has power. He thinks Kuniev could have success if he gets Blaydes against the cage and drags him down, but acknowledges Blaydes is the bigger favorite. He is not confident in Kuniev but prefers him due to Blaydes' declining career.

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes but with the caveat that Blaydes could get knocked out, as all five of his losses are by KO. He is not sold on Kuniev, who tested positive for PEDs and looks different off them. Brady thinks Blaydes has better cardio and will drag the fight into deep waters, either getting a late finish or winning a decision. He predicts Blaydes by decision.

Connor picks Blaydes, agreeing that Kuniev's pressure-counter style will lead to clinch exchanges where Blaydes can dominate. He notes that Kuniev is not as dynamic as Almeida, whom Blaydes outwrestled, and that Kuniev's soft physique and lack of athleticism make him a poor matchup for Blaydes. He believes Blaydes should be a much heavier favorite, calling it a 'minus 500 situation.'

The host notes Blaydes was a -340 favorite in March and now is around -260, which he considers a gift. He thinks Blaydes' wrestling will thwart Kuniev's, allowing him to land big shots and outdamage Kuniev, possibly getting a ground-and-pound finish, but official prediction is Blaydes by decision.

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes, criticizing Rizvan Kuniev as a known steroid cheat. He highlights Blaydes' experience, underrated striking, and excellent grappling defense. He predicts Blaydes will win by TKO via ground-and-pound in round two, noting Kuniev's inability to finish or outpoint Blaydes.

Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, noting that Curtis Blaydes has abandoned his wrestling and has not attempted a takedown in three years. He believes Aspinall is the much better striker and may even mix in takedowns after watching Blaydes get taken down by Jailton Almeida. Angelo warns that heavyweights can always land a knockout, but confidently picks Aspinall.

Cody picks Tom Aspinall, noting his superior boxing, power, and athleticism. He points out that Curtis Blaydes often fails to commit to takedowns and gets knocked out when standing, as seen against Francis Ngannou and Sergei Pavlovich. Cody believes Aspinall's chin is better and that he can finish Blaydes early, likely by knockout in round one or two. He also mentions that Blaydes' wrestling may not be effective against Aspinall's BJJ.

Daniel dismisses the first fight as a fluke injury TKO and believes Tom Aspinall is the superior athlete with better footwork, striking, and fight IQ. He criticizes Blaydes' decision to stand with Pavlovich and thinks Aspinall will finish him early. He predicts a first-round knockout.

Daniel picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior wrestling, athleticism, and striking power. He notes that Aspinall took down and submitted Volkov, and knocked out Pavlovich, while Blaydes has been exposed by grapplers like Jailton Almeida. He doubts Blaydes can grind out a 25-minute decision and believes Aspinall is far more dangerous on the feet.

Jeff also picks Aspinall, agreeing with Daniel's assessment. He notes Aspinall has the complete package and Blaydes has been out-grappled before. He wishes the line were better but accepts it.

Paul takes a shot on Curtis Blaydes at plus money, citing the volatility of heavyweights. He acknowledges that Aspinall is the more likely winner but notes that Blaydes has cardio and wrestling that could cause problems if the fight goes into later rounds. Paul mentions that he faded Blaydes before but is willing to take a chance at plus 421, as heavyweights are unpredictable.

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, believing his relentless grappling and pressure will overwhelm Curtis Blaydes. He notes Blaydes hasn't attempted a takedown in three years and has poor takedown defense (33%). He thinks Almeida will take Blaydes down and dominate on the ground. He is waiting for plus money on Almeida before betting.

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida is incredibly strong and has taken down bigger heavyweights, and that Blaydes has never faced a grappler like Almeida. He believes Almeida will get the takedown and finish quickly, though he acknowledges Blaydes could win if he stuffs the takedowns.

Cody thinks Blaydes is the natural test for Almeida at heavyweight. He notes Blaydes' wrestling, size advantage (40 lbs on fight night), and better cardio. He questions Almeida's striking and ability to take down a wrestler of Blaydes' caliber.

Daniel leans towards Almeida because he trusts Almeida to follow his game plan of taking Blaydes down, while he questions Blaydes's fight IQ. He notes Blaydes has a path to win by using his wrestling in reverse and keeping it standing, but fears Blaydes will test his grappling and get taken down. Daniel references Blaydes's poor decisions against Lewis and Pavlovich. He is not betting unless he gets dog odds.

Blaydes has strong wrestling and should be able to either stop Almeida's takedowns or land his own. Almeida struggled to finish Derrick Lewis despite 21 minutes of control time, showing he may not have the power to hurt Blaydes. Blaydes has better footwork and striking from the outside, and he can grind out a decision. The minus 120 line is great value on a fighter who is usually a chalky favorite. I expect Blaydes to win by decision.

Paul agrees, emphasizing the size difference and Almeida's lack of striking volume. He notes that Almeida has not faced a wrestler like Blaydes and that his takedown technique is not refined enough to take Blaydes down consistently.

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes because of his elite wrestling, which he believes will be the deciding factor. He notes that Blaydes averages over six takedowns per fight and has fast, clean entries. He acknowledges Pavlovich's dangerous striking and knockout power, but thinks Blaydes can survive the early rounds and then take over with wrestling. He mentions Blaydes' three knockout losses but still favors him. He is not betting on this fight.

Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, specifically in the first two minutes. He notes that Pavlovich is very live to starch Blaydes early if Blaydes tries to strike. Blaydes has a clear path to victory via takedown, but if he doesn't shoot immediately, Pavlovich's power could end the fight. Brady thinks it's a 50/50 fight but leans Pavlovich because of his knockout power and Blaydes's tendency to fall in love with striking. He also mentions Pavlovich's poor ground game from past fights, but believes the knockout comes first.

Cody picks Pavlovich, emphasizing his first-round knockout streak and the fact that his only UFC loss was to Overeem in his debut at age 26. He argues Pavlovich has improved since then, trains at Tiger Muay Thai, and has a wrestling background. Cody criticizes Blaydes for sometimes choosing to strike instead of wrestling, as seen against Lewis and Daukaus, and notes that even when Blaydes gets takedowns, he doesn't always do damage. He believes Pavlovich can get back to his feet and land a knockout.

Connor picks Blaydes confidently, arguing that Blaydes does something no other heavyweight does: wrestle with diverse takedowns and control. He points out that Pavlovich's grappling is non-existent, as shown when Overeem took him down and he didn't know what to do. He also notes that Blaydes is durable and has weathered big shots before, and that Pavlovich's striking falls apart when he's not winning.

Curtis Blaydes has improved striking and distance management, using kicks and combinations to avoid trading in the pocket. He has the wrestling advantage and can take the fight to the ground, where he can control or finish. Pavlovich is a dangerous power puncher but tends to thrive when opponents exchange with him; Blaydes will not do that. The only loss on Pavlovich's record came via Alistair Overeem, who now trains with Blaydes, giving Blaydes insight. Blaydes is the more well-rounded fighter with better tools and experience.

Paul picks Pavlovich as a plus money underdog, citing his first-round finishing streak and heavy hands. He acknowledges Blaydes' wrestling and cardio advantages but believes Pavlovich's power and youth (30 at heavyweight) give him a real chance. He notes Pavlovich's wrestling base and training at Tiger Muay Thai, and points out that Blaydes has been knocked out by power punchers before. Paul also mentions a prop for Pavlovich to win in round one at plus 300.

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich after initially leaning toward Blaydes. He rewatched Blaydes' fights and found them less impressive, noting Blaydes is skittish against powerful strikers like Derrick Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He believes Pavlovich's takedown defense has improved and that he will hurt Blaydes on the feet, stuff takedowns, and finish him. He predicts a first-round TKO.

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his next-level wrestling and recent striking improvement. He notes Blaydes has taken down elite heavyweights like Volkov, Overeem, and Hunt, while Aspinall's 100% takedown defense is based on only two defended attempts. He believes Blaydes will have success on the feet but ultimately get takedowns and win. He has a moneyline bet on Blaydes as an underdog.

Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout, but he is hesitant. He notes Blaydes is a tough matchup with great wrestling, but Aspinall is the much better striker with power and speed. He questions Aspinall's takedown defense but thinks his BJJ black belt and get-up game could be key. He believes Aspinall can knock Blaydes out early.

Cody leans towards Tom Aspinall, expecting an early stoppage within the first 10 minutes. He highlights Aspinall's superior hands, pro boxing experience, and size advantage. Cody notes Blaydes' tendency to get complacent striking and his late notice for the fight. He also mentions Aspinall's jiu-jitsu can keep him safe on the ground. Cody plans to live bet Blaydes if Aspinall doesn't finish early.

Daniel Levi picks Tom Aspinall to win, arguing that Aspinall's speed, variety, and well-rounded game will be too much for Curtis Blaydes. He dismisses the notion that Blaydes can simply extend the fight and win, noting that Blaydes lost the championship rounds against Volkov. Levi emphasizes Aspinall's impressive grappling, including a straight arm lock submission on Volkov, and believes Aspinall's takedown defense and offensive wrestling are underrated. He also mentions the home crowd advantage and Blaydes' potential jet lag.

Aspinall has cardio questions. If Blaydes survives the early onslaught and takes Aspinall down, Aspinall will gas. Blaydes has faced tougher competition and has more tools to win over a longer fight. I see Blaydes finishing Aspinall in the third round via TKO from top position.

Paul leans towards Curtis Blaydes at plus money, citing uncertainty about Tom Aspinall's cardio and performance if taken down multiple times. He notes Blaydes has never been an underdog in the UFC and has strong wrestling and top control. Paul suggests live betting Aspinall early and then Blaydes if Aspinall doesn't finish. He admits he doesn't love the pick and probably won't bet it.

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes confidently, citing his dominant wrestling and astronomical takedown numbers. He notes that Blaydes took down Rosenstriuk, Volkov, and others multiple times. He thinks Chris Daukaus' boxing and BJJ won't matter because he won't be able to settle into a rhythm with the constant takedown threat. He sees Blaydes winning a grueling fight.

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by second or third round TKO. He notes that Blaydes has a massive wrestling advantage and will take Daukaus down at will, as Daukaus has shown poor takedown defense in earlier fights. He also mentions that Daukaus has no submissions on his record, so he won't threaten off his back. Brady acknowledges that Daukaus could knock Blaydes out, but Blaydes has only lost to Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis, two of the hardest hitters in the division, so he doesn't see Daukaus doing the same.

Cody agrees Blaydes should win but is wary of the price. He highlights Daukaus' cardio issues and poor chin, and Blaydes' ability to grind with takedowns and elbows. He thinks Blaydes could get a TKO finish due to his weight and pressure. He notes Daukaus has a puncher's chance but sees Blaydes as the logical pick.

Daniel Levi picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his relentless takedown attempts and wrestling pressure as the key factor. He notes that Blaydes attempted 25 takedowns against Volkov and landed 14, and that fighters who keep shooting without discouragement are matchup problems. He acknowledges Daukaus has improved his physique and takedown defense is unknown, but believes Blaydes will implement his game plan and likely win by ground-and-pound stoppage. He also mentions Blaydes could catch Daukaus on the feet if Daukaus is too worried about the takedown.

The host is very confident in Blaydes, believing his wrestling and strength will overwhelm Daukaus. He notes Daukaus lacks the power of Lewis or Ngannou, and that Blaydes can win on the feet or via takedowns. He expects a finish by round 2 or 3 via ground and pound.

Paul sees Blaydes as a clear favorite due to his wrestling advantage and size. He expects Blaydes to be cautious early but then dominate with takedowns and ground control. He notes Blaydes' chin is compromised but believes he will avoid danger and grind out a win. He considers Blaydes a solid parlay piece early in the week.

Angelo picks Blaydes, citing his exceptional wrestling for a heavyweight, with fast entries and relentless top control. He notes that Rozenstruik is a heavy-handed counter-striker but struggles when pressured. Angelo acknowledges the risk of Blaydes getting knocked out again but believes he only needs three takedowns to win.

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers. Blaydes is a superior wrestler with great ground-and-pound, and Brady expects him to take Rozenstruik down and finish him. He acknowledges the heavyweight power threat but is confident in Blaydes.

Cody likes Blaydes' wrestling and cardio but is nervous about his history of getting knocked out by power punchers. He thinks Blaydes will grind out a decision, as Rozenstruik is durable but not likely to be finished by Blaydes. He prefers Blaydes by decision at +200 or Rozenstruik by KO at +400.

Daniel Levi leans with Curtis Blaydes, expecting him to attempt more takedowns than in his last fight against Derrick Lewis (0 for 3). He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and get-up game, but also has knockout power. Levi is concerned about Blaydes' chin and the fact that he got knocked out by Lewis. He believes if Blaydes gets takedowns, he will maul Rozenstruik, but if not, Rozenstruik could catch him.

Jacob picks Blaydes, expecting a copy-paste of the Derrick Lewis fight. He notes Blaydes has bounced back from knockouts before and is level-headed. Jacob believes Blaydes will get takedowns and control the fight, making it boring but effective.

The host picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round TKO. He believes Blaydes will take Rozenstruik down and finish him on the ground. He notes that Blaydes learned from the Lewis fight and will shoot to the correct side. He thinks Rozenstruik's takedown defense is not good enough and that Blaydes' wrestling pedigree will be decisive. He also mentions a submission prop as a sprinkle.

Paul picks Blaydes but is nervous about the price, noting Blaydes' history of getting knocked out. He thinks Blaydes' wrestling will be effective in a three-round fight and expects him to win, but considers Rozenstruik's power a threat. He mentions Blaydes by decision as a possible play.

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by third-round TKO via ground-and-pound. He believes Blaydes will take Volkov down at will and finish him, noting Blaydes' excellent cardio and wrestling. He thinks Volkov's takedown defense will be insufficient and that Blaydes is one of his most confident picks on the card.

Daniel Levi picks Curtis Blaydes, emphasizing his dominant wrestling and takedown records. He notes that Blaydes' only losses are to Francis Ngannou and that he should stick to his wrestling game plan rather than striking with Volkov. Levi cautions that if Blaydes tries to stand and trade, Volkov has a path to victory, but expects Blaydes to win via grinding takedowns and ground and pound.

Daniel picks Curtis Blaydes to win via ground-and-pound TKO in the third round. He notes that Blaydes' grappling is dominant and that JDS has historically struggled with wrestlers. He acknowledges JDS's puncher's chance but believes Blaydes will avoid getting caught and wear him down.