Kai Kara-France

Angelo picks Alexandre Pantoja because he believes Pantoja's grappling and bullying style will be too much for Kai Kara-France, who is smaller and primarily a boxer. He notes that Pantoja is durable, gritty, and will drag Kara-France to the ground, and that the -260 odds are a gift. He dismisses their first fight on TUF as irrelevant and thinks Pantoja's path to victory is clear.

Big Brady is very confident in Pantoja, noting that Kara-France has a tendency to give up his back, as seen in fights against Albazi, Askarov, and Royval. He believes Pantoja's relentless takedown pressure and elite grappling will lead to a submission once he takes Kara-France's back. Brady also notes Kara-France's power but doubts he can knock out Pantoja, who has never been knocked out. He picks Pantoja by third-round submission.

Connor believes Pantoja is the clear champion in the division and that Kara-France lacks the structure to win rounds at an elite level. He notes that Kara-France struggles when he can't get a knockout, and Pantoja is extremely durable and determined. He also highlights Pantoja's wrestling and grappling as key advantages, especially given Kara-France's tendency to give up his back in scrambles. Connor expects Pantoja to win, possibly by finish.

The host sees this as a great matchup for Pantoja to showcase his grappling dominance, predicting he will find a dominant position and submission within two and a half rounds, forcing the tap from Kara-France.

The host picks Alexandre Pantoja, arguing that Kara-France's finishing potential is reduced when he has to defend takedowns. He notes that Pantoja's stand-up has improved and that his pressure and kicks will be key. He expects a close competitive decision, 48-47 or 49-46 for Pantoja.

Angelo picks Steve Erceg because of his size advantage and grappling, believing he can use his size to lean on Kai Kara-France and get the fight to the ground. He notes that Kara-France has great takedown defense but is tiny, and Erceg is big for the division. He considers it a close fight and suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Kara-France might be good.

Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He favors Erceg due to durability (never knocked out or submitted) and grappling upside (BJJ black belt). He notes Kara-France has been finished six times and is hittable. He believes Erceg can hurt Kara-France on the feet and then submit him. He acknowledges the striking could be competitive but thinks Erceg has more paths to victory, including the younger age and grappling advantage.

Cody sees Erceg as the bigger, more durable fighter with better takedown defense and a higher ceiling after nearly beating Pantoja. He notes Kara-France is on a two-fight losing streak, has been knocked down multiple times, and lacks power against top competition. Cody also mentions Erceg's hometown advantage in Perth.

Vreeland picks Erceg, calling him the better all-around fighter. He notes Kara-France is good at stuffing takedowns but Erceg's striking power (brutal KO) will make him hesitant. He also highlights Erceg's ground game shown against Pantoja, suggesting a possible submission. He envisions a 'tag and bag' scenario similar to Kara-France's loss to Brandon Royval.

Daniel Vreeland picks Kai Kara-France via split decision, arguing that Erceg is overrated off his title shot and that Kara-France has the defensive grappling and striking to make it close. He notes that Kara-France has been training hard and won the bleep test at his gym, and that the line movement toward Kara-France suggests sharp action. Vreeland acknowledges the risk of Kara-France's layoff and concussion narrative but believes the fight is a dog-or-pass situation.

Fox agrees with Erceg for the same reasons: more well-rounded and dangerous everywhere. He emphasizes Erceg's ability to hurt Kara-France on the feet and potentially submit him. He notes Kara-France has been submitted before after being stunned.

The host is confident in Erceg, citing his technical striking, height advantage, and defensive grappling. He expects Erceg to land straight shots and counter Kara-France's power shots. He also notes Erceg's submission threat. He believes Erceg is the more complete fighter and will win by decision or submission.

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Erceg's performance against Pantoja as a revelation that he belongs at the top. He notes Kara-France's takedowns won't be effective because Erceg gets back up easily, and that Erceg's size and durability will be key. Paul also points out the travel advantage for Erceg fighting in Perth.

Angelo has a slight lean to Kara-France due to his takedown defense (86%) and UFC experience. He thinks Albazi is unproven against top competition. However, he acknowledges Kara-France may be overrated and could get overconfident. He is not betting this fight.

Cody agrees with Paul, stating it's hard to back Albazi because he hasn't faced elite competition. He highlights Kara-France's performance against Moreno, where he caused problems early. Cody notes the small cage could help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed are clear advantages. He concludes that in a pick 'em fight, Kara-France is the value side.

Connor picks Kai Kara-France, emphasizing that Kara-France is the best counter-puncher Albazi has faced and that Albazi's pressure style may hit its ceiling. He notes that if Kara-France pressures, Albazi's game dissolves, as seen against Torres. Connor also highlights that Kara-France has improved his ability to push a pace and has better defensive wrestling, though he acknowledges Albazi's grappling danger if Kara-France makes mistakes.

Daniel argues that while Kai Kara-France has fought better competition, he has lost to all those top guys, whereas Albazi has handled everyone put in front of him. He believes Albazi's grappling upside and serviceable striking will be enough, and that Kara-France tends to fade in later rounds when pressured. He sees this as a chance for Albazi to rise to the occasion and win his first UFC main event.

Jacob picks Albazi, believing Kara-France will get overconfident in his striking and get caught. He thinks Albazi's jab and power will wear on Kara-France, leading to a takedown or knockout. Jacob notes Kara-France has a history of getting hit when he's too aggressive. He is confident Albazi wins.

Kara-France has improved defensive grappling and superior striking. Albazi will struggle to implement his grapple-heavy approach. Kara-France will stuff takedowns, land damaging blows, and win a decision. The fight likely goes over 3.5 rounds.

Paul picks Kai Kara-France based on his elite level competition and proven ability against top flyweights like Moreno and Garbrandt. He notes Albazi's wins are against lower-tier opponents and his last fight showed low output and takedown struggles. Paul sees Kara-France as the more reliable pick with better experience and accuracy, while Albazi is more of a hope. He mentions the small cage might help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed will be decisive.

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France, citing his great takedown defense, survivability, and patience on the feet. He notes that Kara-France doesn't get hit clean often and has a good chin. He believes Albazi will struggle to get takedowns or finishes, and that Kara-France's experience in five-round fights (interim title fight with Moreno) will be an advantage. He predicts Kara-France will take over as the fight goes on and possibly get a fourth-round TKO.

Big Brady picks Kai Kara-France to win by decision as a dog. He thinks the line is too wide and favors Kara-France's striking volume, accuracy, and takedown defense. He notes Moreno has been dropped before and Kara-France has power. He expects a close fight that could go either way but leans toward the underdog.

Cody picks Moreno, citing his durability, fantastic cardio, and proven five-round ability. He notes that Kai Kara-France relies on power and early success, but Moreno can take his best shots and keep coming. He expects Moreno's volume, wrestling, and championship-round experience to be key advantages. He also mentions that Moreno has a grappling advantage and that Kai's takedown defense is solid but Moreno can mix in wrestling. He thinks the fight will be competitive early but Moreno will take over.

Daniel leans Moreno because he believes Moreno's Mexican heart and toughness will carry him down the stretch, especially in deep waters. He notes that Moreno already beat Kara-France once via decision and that Kara-France has historically faded when fights get tough. He acknowledges Kara-France's improvements, especially his takedown defense against Askar Askarov, and his one-punch knockout power. However, he questions Moreno's motivation after losing the belt and changing camps. He sees value on Kara-France at +170 but ultimately picks Moreno to become interim champion.

Preet made Moreno his biggest play of the night with five units at -187, believing Moreno is on another level. He argues the first fight was not close after round one, with Moreno beating Kara-France to the punch and flexing on him. He expects Moreno to edge a five-round kickboxing match, with potential grappling success. He dismisses Kara-France's takedown defense improvements as irrelevant.

Paul also picks Moreno, agreeing that it's a bad matchup for Kai Kara-France. He notes that Kai relies on power and early success, but Moreno is incredibly durable with fantastic cardio. He thinks Moreno has an advantage on the mat and that Kai's takedown defense is solid but Moreno can get it there. He mentions that the -210 price is not great but the fight is likely to be competitive and go five rounds. He suggests live betting after the first round if Kai has early success.

Angelo picks Askar Askarov, calling him a beast with Dagestani wrestling and submissions. He thinks Askarov's relentless grappling and willingness to strike will be too much for Kai Kara-France. He predicts a close but clear decision, likely 29-28. He also mentions a prop bet on Kara-France plus 3.5 points.

Big Brady picks Askar Askarov to grind out a decision win. He highlights Askarov's relentless wrestling and grappling, noting that he took down Joseph Benavidez five times and controlled him, and also took down Brandon Moreno and Pantoja. He acknowledges that Kai Kara-France has power and knocked out Cody Garbrandt, but believes Askarov will mix in takedowns and not give France many opportunities to strike. He expects a close decision.

Cody picks Askarov but is wary of the line. He notes Askarov's close fights against top competition and Kara-France's recent KO wins over faded opponents. He thinks Askarov's wrestling and durability will be factors, but Kara-France's power is a threat. He expects a competitive fight with Askarov winning.

Daniel Levi picks Askar Askarov, citing his elite wrestling and control. He notes Askarov's wins over top competition (Moreno, Pantoja, Benavidez) and his ability to grind out decisions. He acknowledges Kara-France has KO power and could land a lucky shot, but believes Askarov's grappling will be the difference. He thinks the line at -350 is fair but not a betting opportunity.

Paul picks Askarov but is concerned about the price. He notes Askarov's fights are often competitive and he's been in close decisions. He thinks Askarov's wrestling and striking mix will be key, but Kara-France has power and could test his chin. He expects Askarov to win but not easily.

Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt by knockout, but with very low confidence. He notes that Garbrandt has fought better competition and is the harder hitter, but there are many red flags: Garbrandt is moving down in weight, has durability concerns, and has been knocked out before. Kara-France has good takedown defense and volume, but his chin is questionable. Brady cannot bet this fight due to the uncertainty.

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kara-France for the upset, expressing concerns about Cody Garbrandt's drop to flyweight. He references historical examples like TJ Dillashaw and Figueiredo struggling with the weight cut, and worries about Garbrandt's durability losing 10 pounds. Levi acknowledges Garbrandt's superior competition but believes the speed and output at flyweight will favor Kara-France. He notes Kara-France's one-punch knockout power and training at a great camp. Levi is skeptical about Garbrandt's desperation move to flyweight.

Garbrandt is the much better technical striker and should be able to counter Kara-France's blitzes. However, his durability is a concern, especially at a new weight class. If he stays disciplined and uses footwork, he can win a decision. The weight cut and chin are question marks, so this is a watch-and-see fight.

Big Brady picks Kai Kara-France, citing his striking advantage and ability to scramble if taken down. He notes Bontorin's striking is underwhelming and that Kara-France's 90% takedown defense is backed by good scrambling. He predicts a decision win but mentions he would bet Kara-France if he gets plus money.

Daniel picks Rogério Bontorin to win a decision, citing his toughness, wrestling, and ability to mix in takedowns. He dismisses Bontorin's loss to Ray Borg due to weight miss and elevation, and believes Bontorin is the better grappler and will break Kara-France down the stretch.

Kara-France has speed and better stand-up, with decent takedown defense. Bontorin slows down in later rounds. The host thinks Kara-France will win by decision, but is not highly confident due to Kara-France's past losses to chaotic fighters.

Big Brady picks the underdog Royval, impressed by his ground game and finishing ability. He thinks Royval will get the fight to the mat at some point and have a big advantage there. He also notes Royval's striking is decent and he has a reach advantage.

Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval as a dog, calling it a dog-or-pass situation. He believes Kai Kara-France is overrated, with questionable wins and a tendency to duck his head before exchanges, which Royval can exploit with flying knees. He praises Royval's heart, submission ability, and pressure, though he notes Royval's takedown defense is poor.

The host picks Brandon Royval as a live underdog, comparing him to Tony Ferguson for his unorthodox pressure and scrambling ability. He believes Royval's chaos and jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Kai Kara-France, who he feels is overrated due to his City Kickboxing affiliation. He predicts a second or third-round submission.

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kara-France by dominant decision, citing his higher output, ringmanship, and octagon experience. He acknowledges Tyson Nam's one-punch knockout power but believes Kara-France can avoid it and win the long game. Levi notes that Nam only throws hands and lacks variety, while Kara-France has a good right hand and better overall skills.