UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant, acknowledging the line is off and Brunson is the value side. He notes Holland has red flags in his takedown defense and cardio, but Brunson has been knocked out five times and may struggle to hold Holland down. Brady expects Holland to knock out Brunson in the second round, as Holland is dangerous off his back and has a steel chin. He says the KO prop at +160 is not a bad look.

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland, citing his creativity and unquantifiable skills. He acknowledges Brunson's improved composure but believes Holland's experience and talent will prevail. He notes Holland's overconfidence as a concern but still expects a spectacular finish. He mentions Holland's past injury in the Darren Stewart fight as a possible excuse for that poor performance.

Brunson has rejuvenated his career at Sanford MMA, becoming more disciplined and conservative. He should have a wrestling advantage and can control Holland against the cage or on the ground. Holland's cardio is untested in five-round fights, and he showed flaws against Darren Stewart. Brunson's chin narrative is overblown; he's been more careful. Brunson by decision is the pick, with the decision prop at +365 offering value.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to beat Derek Brunson. He believes Holland has shown a good jiu-jitsu game off his back, which previous Brunson opponents lacked, and can work early for a TKO. He notes Brunson's tendency to crumble under trash talk, as seen against Israel Adesanya, and expects Brunson to shoot desperately and get caught. However, he admits concern because Brunson has a knack for pulling off upsets.

Big Brady picks Max Griffin, emphasizing the clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Griffin has a significant wrestling advantage, averaging 2 takedowns per 15 minutes with 53% accuracy, while Song has 45% takedown defense and offers little off his back. Brady expects Griffin to implement a wrestling game plan and win a comfortable decision, though he acknowledges Song's power makes him live.

Daniel Levi picks Song Kenan as an underdog, citing openings for a counter right hand. He acknowledges Griffin's toughness and durability but questions his striking defense and conditioning. He notes that Griffin has lost decisions to washed-up fighters and that the line at -200 is too high. He expects a close fight and likes the plus money.

Griffin has more paths to victory: volume striking, takedowns, and cardio. Song needs a KO to win, as he doesn't mix in grappling. Griffin's movement and ability to stay on the outside should allow him to outpoint Song. Griffin's durability is solid; he's only been dropped once in the UFC. Decision prop at +120 is appealing.

The MMA Guru picks Max Griffin over Song Kenan. He believes Griffin's pressure, volume, and cage work will overwhelm Kenan, who arguably lost to Derek Krantz. He notes Griffin's reach advantage and recent win over Ramis Bahamad, and expects a unanimous decision (30-27). He also mentions Kenan lost to Brad Riddell and Israel Adesanya, but dismisses that as a fun fact.

Big Brady picks Cheyanne Vlismas, noting she is a big favorite for a reason: she is the much bigger fighter with better striking and aggression. He expects her to hold Ruiz against the cage, land cleaner shots, and win a clear decision. He would not lay -350 but believes she wins handily.

Daniel Levi picks Cheyanne Vlismas but expresses concern about her UFC debut and the potential for an 'egg' performance. He notes she is the better fighter with better volume and should keep the fight standing. He worries about the emotional toll of cornering her husband earlier in the night and the possibility of an adrenaline dump.

Vlismas should control the fight wherever it goes with her striking and clinch work. She has a height and reach advantage and looked good on the contender series. Ruiz has a solid jiu-jitsu game but is likely outmatched. However, at -350 for a debutant, it's a pass. No bet is recommended due to the unknowns.

The MMA Guru picks Cheyanne Vlismas (misspelled as Cheyenne Buyers) over Montserrat Ruiz. He thinks Vlismas is younger, improving more between fights, and has a reach advantage. He expects her cardio from a full camp to pull ahead in later rounds, winning by unanimous decision. He acknowledges Ruiz is decent but hasn't fought good competition.

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez, praising his striking combinations, power, and takedown defense. He notes Yañez is a black belt in BJJ with good get-up game, while Lopez is hittable and has been knocked out twice. Brady expects Yañez to knock out Lopez in the second round, as Lopez's path to victory via takedown is unlikely.

Daniel Levi picks Gustavo Lopez as an underdog, citing his well-rounded attack and power. He compares Yañez to a young Jorge Masvidal in terms of coasting and questionable decisions. He believes if Yañez doesn't get an early knockout, Lopez can mix in takedowns and win a close fight or even knock him out.

Yañez is crisp and precise with his striking, using straight shots down the middle. Lopez is too looping and wide with his hooks, which Yañez should counter. Yañez has good takedown defense and has never been knocked out. He should piece Lopez up and likely finish him in the first or second round. The under 2.5 rounds is a solid play.

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yanez to win, predicting a first-round KO. He praises Yanez's patience and calmness in the cage, noting he doesn't overthrow shots and waits for his moment. He references Yanez's wins over Brandy Huang and Victor Rodriguez (head kick KO). He acknowledges it's a dangerous fight but believes Yanez will put Lopez out cold, as Lopez has been KO'd before by Andre Ewell and John Castaneda.

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa, expecting a first-round knockout. He notes Hunsucker has never seen the second round, has poor cardio, and is coming in on short notice. Tuivasa has deadly leg kicks and power, and Brady believes he will overwhelm Hunsucker quickly. He advises against laying -400 but likes the under or Tuivasa by KO.

Daniel Levi picks Tai Tuivasa by first-round knockout. He describes Hunsucker as a kamikaze fighter who has never been past the first round and has been knocked out by lower-level vets. He expects Tuivasa to tee off and finish early with a left hook or overhand.

Tuivasa should win by finish, but the line is expected to be too high (around -300 to -400). Hunsucker has never been out of the first round and has power, but his cardio is poor. Tuivasa is not the most reliable fighter. The under 1.5 rounds is the best bet, as both guys are likely to swing for a KO early. Avoid playing Tuivasa at heavy chalk.

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa over Harry Hunsucker (misspelled as DonTayle Mays). He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will set up his shots upstairs, and he expects a decision win (29-28). He notes Hunsucker is difficult to finish but has been finished by submission recently, which Tuivasa won't do. He thinks Tuivasa will control the first two rounds clearly.

Big Brady picks Macy Chiasson, citing her youth, strength, and size advantage over the 43-year-old Reneau. He expects Chiasson to press Reneau against the cage and win a decision, though he notes Chiasson has shown vulnerabilities in the past. He does not recommend betting at -220 but believes Chiasson wins.

Daniel Levi picks Macy Chiasson but expresses concerns about her technique and mental fortitude. He notes her size advantage and believes she can grind out a win if she avoids submissions. He worries about Reneau's power and opportunistic finishing ability but thinks Chiasson's path to victory is takedowns and control.

Chiasson relies on brute strength and tends to fade in the third round, as seen against Lansberg. Reneau is technically better on the feet and has a wealth of experience. If Reneau survives the first two rounds without being finished, she should take over in the third. Reneau by third-round submission is the play, as she has late finishes on her record.

The MMA Guru picks Macy Chiasson over Marion Reneau. He notes Chiasson is taller and a better fighter, while Reneau is on a three-fight losing streak and slowing down with age. He expects Chiasson to use her size advantage against the cage and win by split decision (29-28). He mentions Chiasson's win over Pannie Kianzad by rear-naked choke and her loss to Lina Lansberg.

Big Brady picks Grant Dawson but is hesitant, acknowledging Santos' power and takedown defense. He notes Dawson is younger and has a wrestling advantage, but Santos has extreme power and has stuffed takedowns before. Brady worries about Dawson's hittability and the weight cut up to 155. He expects Dawson to win by decision through pressure and volume, but says it's a dog-or-pass fight and might look at Santos' KO prop.

Daniel Levi picks Grant Dawson, expecting him to overwhelm Santos with cardio and pace in the later rounds. He notes Dawson's ability to recover from big shots and sees Santos' cardio as a potential weakness. He mentions James Krause's confidence in Dawson's submission ability but doesn't necessarily predict a submission. He acknowledges the early rounds could be sketchy.

Dawson is younger, faster, and has better cardio. He should use calf kicks and stay on the feet early to drain Santos' energy before taking him down. Santos has knockout power and solid takedown defense, but his cardio is lacking. Dawson's path is a decision win, but the price is too steep at -190. This is a no-bet due to the volatility.

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson over Leonardo Santos. He praises Dawson's wrestling and grappling, noting he is not a scrambly grappler and is content to rest in half guard and land total strikes. He expects Dawson to control Santos against the cage for the first two rounds and win by unanimous decision. He acknowledges Santos is dangerous and has KO power, but thinks the 41-year-old will slow down.

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze despite concerns about his weight cut from 205 to 185 on short notice. He notes Dolidze has advantages in grappling and strength, and expects him to take Giles down and submit him in the first round. Brady criticizes Giles' poor fight IQ and takedown defense, citing his losses to Gerald Meerschaert and James Krause. He advises waiting for weigh-ins before betting.

Daniel Levi picks Roman Dolidze, going against the public action. He acknowledges Dolidze's well-roundedness but notes his overconfidence and tendency to play around. He expects a close, back-and-forth fight with Dolidze finding something opportunistic. He is not fully convinced but leans toward Dolidze.

Dolidze is slightly more active, has more power in his hands, and likely has the grappling advantage. He's durable and can take Giles' shots. Giles is faster and has a good 1-2, but Dolidze's volume and size (2-inch height and reach advantage) could cause issues. Dolidze should win by decision, but it's a stay-away fight due to the short notice and weight cut.

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Trevin Giles. He believes Dolidze's size, strength, and grappling will be too much for Giles, who has been manhandled before (e.g., by Zach Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert). He predicts a third-round submission, as Giles tends to slow down due to grappling pressure. He notes Dolidze is moving down to 185 and should be able to manhandle Giles.

Big Brady is very confident in Montel Jackson, calling him the biggest favorite on the card for good reason. He notes Jackson is a much better fighter with a significant skill advantage, while Strader is green and has fought low-level competition. Brady expects Jackson to win by first-round knockout, as Strader has been hurt by lesser opponents and Jackson can pick him apart or take him down.

Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson confidently, stating Strader is over his head. He worries about Jackson's focus and past stalling but expects a dominant finish, likely by knockout or submission. He emphasizes that Jackson's talent should shine against this level of competition.

Montel Jackson has all the tools: great wrestling, sneaky submission game, improving striking and cardio. He uses his range well and has crazy grip strength. Jesse Strader throws bombs and has power, but his only path is a KO. Jackson should get the takedown and eventually lock up a submission. The line is too wide at -650, but Jackson wins handily.

The MMA Guru calls Montel Jackson the lock of the card. He praises Jackson's underrated prospect status, giant hands, and patience. He expects Jackson to weather Strader's early aggression and finish him by second-round TKO. He notes Strader is a good fighter with quick finishes but doesn't see him finishing Jackson.

Big Brady picks Bruno Silva as an underdog, citing JP Buys' cardio issues and tendency to gas after the first round. He notes Buys has never been to a decision and has been finished before, while Silva is a black belt in BJJ with better cardio and takedown defense. Brady believes if Silva survives the early storm, he will take over and finish Buys by TKO in the second round.

Daniel Levi picks JP Buys, expecting him to get off to a big lead and possibly an early submission. He notes Buys' cardio issues but thinks he can weather the storm and win a decision. He acknowledges Bruno Silva's improvements but sees Buys as the more physical fighter early.

Bruno Silva has shown great cardio against high-level opponents like Dvorak and Ulanbekov, while JP Buys slows down past the first round. Silva's ability to survive the early storm and take over later in the fight is key. Buys has better striking technique but his cardio issues make him vulnerable as a favorite. Silva should win by decision, though Buys has potential if he fixes his cardio.

The MMA Guru picks Bruno Silva over JP Buys. He believes Silva's superior competition (close fights with Tagir Ulanbekov and David Dvořák) gives him an edge. He expects Silva to wear on Buys as the fight goes on, using his grappling and stand-up, and win by unanimous decision (29-28). He notes Buys starts fast but slows down, as seen against Joby Sanchez.