vs
+180 -188
UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland · Mar 20, 2021 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland Next Fight
Age 42
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 33
Height 6' 3"
Reach 81.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Derek Brunson
3.51 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
3.14 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kevin Holland
4.26 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.22 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Derek Brunson
Moneyline
FanDuel +180
KO/TKO
BetWay +450
Submission
BetWay +1000
Decision
BetWay +300
Kevin Holland
Moneyline
BetWay -188
KO/TKO
BetWay +138
Submission
BetWay +700
Decision
BetWay +450
Derek Brunson - Fight History
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 4:59 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 37 of 84 44% 43 of 90 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:30
Derek Brunson 1 71 of 115 61% 84 of 132 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 12 of 23 52% 18 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:28
Derek Brunson 0 9 of 14 64% 16 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 25 of 61 40% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Derek Brunson 1 62 of 101 61% 68 of 108 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 37 of 84 44% 27 of 71 9 of 12 1 of 1 30 of 74 3 of 5 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 71 of 115 61% 55 of 97 8 of 9 8 of 9 53 of 95 3 of 3 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 12 of 23 52% 11 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 1 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6
2 Dricus du Plessis 25 of 61 40% 16 of 50 9 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 62 of 101 61% 49 of 86 6 of 7 7 of 8 50 of 89 1 of 1 11 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.

"I've had drikas as the plaque the pick I literally I told Jacob earlier I said I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna flip this pick like thick Brunson should win this but I just can't trust the chin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take drinkas to win this fight I'm gonna say he does eventually catch Brunson on the feet I'm gonna say he knocks out Brunson in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Drake has catches them so do places inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.

"I gotta pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working. But if it does if it's not then you know good on do plus e."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.

"duplessy is gonna dominate this dude he should not be in the UFC anymore he's gonna retire after this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.

du Plessis by knockout
"I believe that Brunson does have a car or durability issue still... I have no doubt that he'll be able to land that knockout blow here to get his hand raised so look for duplex's money line or even duplexes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Rick is inside the distance is the play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.

Guillotine finish predicted, second round finish
"I'm gonna go with dricus du plessis with his guillotine... I think he will beat Derek Branson by a second round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.

"I'm gonna pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working."
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
KO (elbows) R2 4:29 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 0 55 of 89 61% 61 of 96 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Derek Brunson 1 43 of 97 44% 48 of 103 3 of 13 23% 1 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 16 of 35 45% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Derek Brunson 1 20 of 41 48% 25 of 46 2 of 9 22% 1 0 2:00
2 Jared Cannonier 0 39 of 54 72% 43 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Derek Brunson 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 57 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 55 of 89 61% 42 of 75 8 of 8 5 of 6 38 of 71 12 of 13 5 of 5
Derek Brunson 43 of 97 44% 25 of 69 12 of 20 6 of 8 41 of 89 1 of 4 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 16 of 35 45% 13 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 2 9 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 20 of 41 48% 12 of 30 6 of 9 2 of 2 18 of 35 1 of 3 1 of 3
2 Jared Cannonier 39 of 54 72% 29 of 44 6 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 43 5 of 6 5 of 5
Derek Brunson 23 of 56 41% 13 of 39 6 of 11 4 of 6 23 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Angelo picks Cannonier, believing he can defend Brunson's takedowns and land his power shots. He notes that even when taken down, Cannonier has knocked out high-level grapplers like Hermansson and Branch. He questions Brunson's chin and thinks Kelvin Gastelum, a better wrestler, couldn't keep Cannonier down.

"i've got to go with jared here i totally understand derrick brunson's wrestling is a threat but i like jared cannanier to defend those takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady believes Cannonier's takedown defense at middleweight is excellent (85%), and he will be able to stuff Brunson's takedowns and get back up if taken down. He notes Brunson is chinny and has been knocked out five times, and Cannonier has the power to knock him out. He predicts Cannonier will end Brunson's winning streak with a first round knockout.

Cannonier by first round knockout
"i think cannonier ends the streak here for brunson... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Brunson's wins are over grapplers and that Cannonier is a tough takedown. He highlights Cannonier's strength and cardio, and expects Brunson to get desperate and clipped. He thinks the line should be closer to -250.

"i think it's a no-brainer cannon your pick as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier to knock out Derek Brunson. He believes Cannonier's takedown defense has improved and that he will stuff Brunson's takedowns and put pressure on him. Levi notes that Brunson's opponents haven't been top-level and that Brunson has been knocked out multiple times. He is not crazy about the price and will probably pass on betting, but he thinks Cannonier wins.

pass on betting due to price
"I do think that cannonier stuffs these takedowns and knocks out derrick brunson"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cannonier has excellent takedown defense and knockout power. Brunson's wins have come against opponents with cardio or grappling issues, and he gets rocked in every fight. Cannonier should stuff takedowns and land a knockout. Brunson's grappling advantage won't be enough to hold Cannonier down. Expect a second-round KO.

Cannonier by KO in round 2; hefty wager expected
"i really like jared kadenier in this spot you know even though brunson's averaging 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and even though he's riding this five-fight winning streak"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Paul thinks Brunson's recent wins are over stylistically favorable opponents and that Cannonier's takedown defense and power will be too much. He notes Cannonier stuffed takedowns from Whittaker and Gastelum, and that Brunson's chin is suspect. He expects Cannonier to knock Brunson out.

"i think this is when derek brunson's bad chin shows back up again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier by third-round KO, citing his takedown defense, cardio, and power. He believes Brunson will slow down after failing takedowns and get caught with a left hook.

third round ko left hook
"i'm gonna go with jared cannon in here i think he's gonna ko derek branson"
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:13 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Sep 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 41 of 84 48% 101 of 145 3 of 6 50% 1 0 7:23
Darren Till 0 26 of 50 52% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 26 of 51 50% 51 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Darren Till 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 13 46% 37 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:56
Darren Till 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Derek Brunson 0 9 of 20 45% 13 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 41 of 84 48% 37 of 76 2 of 2 2 of 6 9 of 36 3 of 3 29 of 45
Darren Till 26 of 50 52% 14 of 38 8 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 42 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 26 of 51 50% 26 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 3 3 of 16 1 of 1 22 of 34
Darren Till 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 7
Darren Till 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 9 of 20 45% 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 6 of 16 4 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Till

Big Brady picks Darren Till to win by knockout, citing Till's power and Brunson's questionable chin and cardio. He notes that Till has faced much tougher competition recently (Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley) compared to Brunson's lower-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Till is very low volume (max 49 sig strikes in a fight) and Brunson is a strong wrestler who could out-grapple Till. Brady thinks the line is off (Till -180) and would not bet the moneyline, preferring the knockout prop.

Till by knockout prop recommended; moneyline not recommended
"I am going to pick darren till by knockout darren brunson has been finished a handful of times i don't think he has the best chin and it only takes one shot from darren till"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody thinks Till should win but is hesitant at -180, noting Till's low volume and tendency to be reserved. He suggests waiting for a live line after the first round to get a better price. He acknowledges Brunson's wrestling and chain takedowns could cause problems, but believes Till's power and durability will allow him to get a late finish in a five-round fight.

Live bet after round 1 for better price
"if you're going with darren till i think you wait on it i think that's the move you're going to get a much better price betting him lives"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Till

I believe Till is an elite striker and Brunson's takedowns will be harder to secure against Till's 82% takedown defense. Brunson's striking is not on the same level, and Till's power is real—he's dropped five of nine opponents. Even if Brunson gets early takedowns, Till's get-up game is good enough to work back up. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Till as Brunson's desperation takedowns fail. I'm confident Till wins, likely by decision or late KO.

Till by KO +135, Till round 3 +950, Till round 4 +1550, Till round 5 +2350, Till by decision +400
"I really like Till in this spot... I feel like he's gonna be prepared for this fight... I think he starts to take over and then eventually finds that knockout blow."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Paul is taking Brunson as a plus money underdog, citing Till's low volume and Brunson's improved fight IQ and wrestling. He notes Brunson has been cashing as a dog recently and that Till's kryptonite is what Brunson does—wrestling and pressure. He believes Brunson can get takedowns and grind out a win, especially if the fight goes into later rounds where Till's hesitancy costs him.

Small shot on Brunson at +150
"i'm gonna take a shot on derrick brunson i mean even even you said it's like early on brunson's probably go you're gonna get a better price in live markets i'm not willing to wait i'll just take the guy …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till to win by first-round TKO. He believes Till's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Brunson, who is hesitant on the feet and has been KO'd multiple times. He notes that if Till cannot beat Brunson, he will never be a champion. He expects a slow first round with Brunson attempting a takedown and Till countering with a left hook to finish.

first round tko
"i think darren till's got this one against derrick branson and i'll be honest with you if he doesn't beat derrick branson he'll never be anything"
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland · Mar 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 43 of 93 46% 226 of 323 6 of 12 50% 1 0 16:55
Kevin Holland 0 36 of 74 48% 190 of 236 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 14 of 35 40% 63 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:29
Kevin Holland 0 3 of 6 50% 25 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 7 of 20 35% 16 of 30 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:09
Kevin Holland 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 11 54% 54 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:17
Kevin Holland 0 2 of 5 40% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Derek Brunson 0 8 of 12 66% 51 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:46
Kevin Holland 0 8 of 17 47% 47 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Derek Brunson 0 8 of 15 53% 42 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:14
Kevin Holland 0 10 of 20 50% 56 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 43 of 93 46% 28 of 74 7 of 10 8 of 9 14 of 43 10 of 10 19 of 40
Kevin Holland 36 of 74 48% 28 of 64 2 of 4 6 of 6 29 of 64 5 of 7 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 14 of 35 40% 12 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 28
Kevin Holland 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 2
Kevin Holland 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 10 of 21 3 of 4 0 of 1
3 Derek Brunson 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8
Kevin Holland 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Derek Brunson 8 of 12 66% 5 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 5 5 of 5 2 of 2
Kevin Holland 8 of 17 47% 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Derek Brunson 8 of 15 53% 2 of 8 2 of 3 4 of 4 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 10 of 20 50% 7 of 15 2 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 16 2 of 2 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland

Round 1
Quicker than expected, we have reached the main event of the evening. At stake is a possible place as a top contender, and two men on a combined eight-fight win streak look to end the other’s success. Brunson (21-7, 12-5 UFC) will face Holland (21-5, 8-2 UFC), and despite Holland’s ribbing, there is no bad blood as the two middleweights decide to touch gloves in front of referee Herb Dean. Holland reaches out with his hand, and he jumps back and gets kicked midair. Holland scores a fast front kick on the chin, and he ducks out of the way as Brunson is coming out throwing haymakers. Holland slips and falls to his back, and Brunson leaps on top to attack. “Trailblazer” ties Brunson up from his back with a body triangle, and Brunson does not mind as he lands a few punches from above. Holland slashes with elbows from below, but the far more emphatic punches are Brunson’s as they have an appreciable effect. Brunson works elbows as Holland looks to set up a submission, and the strikes break up the attempt without issue. Brunson throws heavy shots as he maintains heavy top pressure, and Holland pushes off only to get warned for nearly raking Brunson’s eye. Holland keeps his guard closed as Brunson pounds on him, and Holland talks to him and responds with short, hacking elbows. Holland boxes the ears and throws his legs up to try something, but Brunson ignores it and continues to hammer away on him. Holland is chattering away at him the entire time, and Brunson appears composed and lands heavy shots that silence Holland for the briefest of moments. Holland continues to banter and tell Brunson to stop covering his mouth, and Brunson continues to rain down powerful shots. Holland jumps back up, and Brunson pushes him away right at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 2
Between rounds, Holland has a conversation with former lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov who is sitting in the stands. Holland laughs and smiles, and the fight clocks back in again. Holland whiffs with a huge right hand and a head kick, and Brunson walks forward and gets tagged with a left hand counter. Holland shouts to Nurmagomedov to tell him when Brunson’s takedown comes, and Brunson crashes forward into a clinch for a takedown attempt. Holland breaks free and lazily spins around, and he drills Brunson with a nasty right hand. Holland clips him again with a few punches, and Brunson falls across the cage. Brunson aims for a desperation takedown, lifting Holland’s leg up high in the air. Holland lands a few punches with his leg raised, and Brunson pops him with a right hand and lands an emphatic takedown. Holland surrenders mount quickly, only to roll for a leglock and allow Brunson to climb back into top position. In half guard, Brunson targets an arm-triangle choke, and looks to pass to mount or side control so he can finish the submission. Holland rolls but is pushed down and flattened on the canvas, where Brunson puts his full body weight from the other side and the choke is tight. Holland continues to talk even while firmly in the danger zone, and Brunson is in side control applying the choke. Holland rides out the submission that would put lesser fighters out, and miraculously powers out of the position and kicks off to stand back to his feet. Holland laughs and turns around, and when he throws a kick, Brunson picks him up and slams him down. Holland keeps talking to people out of the cage, asking for advice to stop takedowns. Brunson, in full guard, works him over with punches as Holland slaps and paws at him from beneath. Brunson postures up to land a few strikes, and he kicks off right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 3
Holland is not dismayed by the results of the last rounds, and he comes out smiling and reaches out his left hand. Brunson flirts with a leg kick, and Holland smacks him with an overhand right counter. Brunson retreats and circles around the cage, and Holland walks him down and lands a crisp right hand. Brunson shoots in for a takedown, where he lifts Holland up and slams him down on the canvas. Holland throws his legs up for a triangle choke, and he turns it into an armbar but Brunson is savvy and able to get out of harm’s way. Holland is able to get Brunson to stand up, but Brunson wades through an upkick to lower himself back into Holland’s guard. Holland stays busy on his back with elbows and slaps, and Brunson’s workrate has slowed dramatically. Brunson sits up a few times with slowed punches, and Holland ties him up and looks to Dean for a standup. Holland ties up a body triangle and elbows Brunson a few times, but he does allow Brunson to land some punches as well. Brunson, whose strikes are slowing, lands some but not enough to stave off Dean. The shots are enough to keep the position, but Holland is consistently throwing palm strikes and elbows at high volume. Brunson grinds his elbow on Holland’s chin, and his ground-and-pound is sporadic but effective at racking up lengthy control time in the round. Brunson sits up to drop down a few punches, and he squeezes heavily from above while Holland tries and fails to kick off the fence. Brunson continues his grind-embracing approach until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 4
Holland opens up the round with a leg kick, and he backs away while Brunson pump-fakes with takedown attempts. Brunson lets loose a lazy leg kick, and two punches find their home on his chin as a response. Holland clips Brunson with a few punches, and Brunson falls forward to take the fight down. Holland backs off, and recklessly charges into the fray only to get tied up. Holland pushes him off, and gets pulled into a clinch where Brunson uppercuts him several times. Brunson pushes him into the fence and gets a takedown, where he lands in side control. Holland scrambles back to his feet, but Brunson drags him right back down and is in Holland’s closed guard. Holland is frustrated as Brunson calmly and methodically gives ground-and-pound, and when Brunson elbows him in the face, Holland loudly cheers for him. Dean asks Brunson to work a few times, and every time he says it, Brunson lands a punch or two from on top. Holland looks to kick off the fence, only to get pulled back away from it and eat strikes. Brunson’s top control is making Dean take a close look at standing the fight back up, as he claps for Brunson to continue working. Holland kicks off the fence and gets to his knee. He hops over to the fence, and Brunson follows him and mashes him into the wire. Brunson presses his full body weight into Holland’s chest, and he knees Holland a few times and puts his hands out of the cage for a moment. Dean admonishes him, and he apologizes. Holland fails to escape the clinch, and elects to slap Brunson a few times before the fourth round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 5
Holland offers a glove touch but Brunson ignores him to start off the final round. Holland picks his leg up to block a leg kick, and he stands still in the center of the cage while Brunson aims for angles. A front kick from Holland misses, and Brunson backs off and jabs him a few times. Brunson ducks down and clocks Holland with a left hand, and he may have hurt Holland but Holland wears it well and counters a leg kick with a left hand. Holland catches Brunson on the way in with a left hand, and when he leaps forward with a hook, Brunson ducks down and clinches up to take the fight down. The two land punches to the body in the clinch, and Holland knees him a few times for good measure. One of Holland’s strikes opened up a cut on Brunson’s eye, and Holland smells the blood and is excited by it. “Trailblazer” surges forward and takes Brunson down, and he is now the first fighter in UFC history to land a takedown on Brunson. Holland celebrates his work, but Brunson ties him up and locks him down so that little effective ground-and-pound can be levied. Holland postures up and lands a few punches, before lifting Brunson up to slam him down as if he were channeling his inner Quinton Jackson. Dean tells Holland that he will stand him up if he does not do anything, so he sits up and lands some shots. Brunson kicks him off, and he rushes forward for a takedown of his own to grind out the talkative kickboxer. Holland defends the first attempt but cannot stop the redoubled effort, as he slowly descends to the canvas where Brunson is lording over him punching him in the face. Dean already tells Brunson to do something, and Brunson does just that with elbows and punches. Holland pushes off the fence and giggles at Brunson, but Brunson is holding the position and winning the fight because of this strategy. Holland kicks off, and he walks away upset that he lost. With 10 seconds left, Holland appears to admit defeat as he turns his back and waves his hand in disgust. Brunson lands a punch as Holland is not paying attention, so Holland explodes with a flying knee and a hammerfist on the way down, and the final horn blares to end this 25-minute affair. The fight card comes to an inglorious end, but there is no ill will between the two middleweights. A big pay-per-view event comes over the horizon next week, although it has lost some luster as featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski tested positive for COVID-19 and the fight is off – this is likely why the Riddell-Gillespie fight was scratched on tonight’s card. We will be here for UFC 260, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)

The Official Result
Derek Brunson def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (49-45, 49-46, 49-46)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant, acknowledging the line is off and Brunson is the value side. He notes Holland has red flags in his takedown defense and cardio, but Brunson has been knocked out five times and may struggle to hold Holland down. Brady expects Holland to knock out Brunson in the second round, as Holland is dangerous off his back and has a steel chin. He says the KO prop at +160 is not a bad look.

Kevin Holland wins by KO in round 2; KO prop +160
"i'm going to take kevin hall to win by knockout i'm going to say he's going to be the sixth person to knock out derek brunson"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2021 (fight day)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland, citing his creativity and unquantifiable skills. He acknowledges Brunson's improved composure but believes Holland's experience and talent will prevail. He notes Holland's overconfidence as a concern but still expects a spectacular finish. He mentions Holland's past injury in the Darren Stewart fight as a possible excuse for that poor performance.

Holland by something spectacular
"i'm gonna go with kevin holland to catch him with something opportunistic"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Brunson has rejuvenated his career at Sanford MMA, becoming more disciplined and conservative. He should have a wrestling advantage and can control Holland against the cage or on the ground. Holland's cardio is untested in five-round fights, and he showed flaws against Darren Stewart. Brunson's chin narrative is overblown; he's been more careful. Brunson by decision is the pick, with the decision prop at +365 offering value.

Brunson by decision (+365), over 2.5 rounds (-130)
"I like brunson man i like this brunson since he's moved over to stanford mma"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to beat Derek Brunson. He believes Holland has shown a good jiu-jitsu game off his back, which previous Brunson opponents lacked, and can work early for a TKO. He notes Brunson's tendency to crumble under trash talk, as seen against Israel Adesanya, and expects Brunson to shoot desperately and get caught. However, he admits concern because Brunson has a knack for pulling off upsets.

"kevin holland is going to beat derrick branson because derrick branson can't fight"
TKO (punches) R3 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Aug 01, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 88 of 145 60% 107 of 164 4 of 8 50% 0 0 3:06
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 35 of 72 48% 38 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 29 of 50 58% 32 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:59
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 24 of 41 58% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 54 of 85 63% 69 of 100 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:01
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 11 of 31 35% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Derek Brunson 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 88 of 145 60% 58 of 106 15 of 21 15 of 18 53 of 95 9 of 17 26 of 33
Edmen Shahbazyan 35 of 72 48% 17 of 50 18 of 22 0 of 0 26 of 63 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 29 of 50 58% 12 of 29 8 of 10 9 of 11 24 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 1
Edmen Shahbazyan 24 of 41 58% 11 of 24 13 of 17 0 of 0 16 of 33 8 of 8 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 54 of 85 63% 42 of 69 7 of 11 5 of 5 27 of 44 5 of 12 22 of 29
Edmen Shahbazyan 11 of 31 35% 6 of 26 5 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 5 of 10 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derek Brunson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

Round 1
We have rapidly reached the main event, which is a three-round middleweight tilt as two knockout artists in Brunson (20-7, 11-5 UFC) and Shahbazyan (11-0, 4-0 UFC) come to blows. Sharing 20 knockout wins across their 31 career triumphs, referee Herb Dean may have his work cut out for him in this abbreviated affair moved to the headliner spot on short notice. They have no interest in touching gloves, as Shahbazyan marches forward and takes a punch to the body. Brunson swings and misses with a low kick, and a body kick comes up mostly short. Shahbazyan leans down to land a punch to the body, and then goes for another as Brunson backs off. They come together, and Shahbazyan clips Brunson with a short check hook. Shahbazyan changes levels briefly, and Brunson grabs hold of his neck, so “The Golden Boy” breaks free and disengages. Shahbazyan whips a head kick up high that comes up shy of the mark, and a right hand that follows catches Brunson standing. Brunson tries to get a few more kicks off, and Shahbazyan circles to his left and sneaks in a left hand. Brunson charges at him with a few punches, only to change levels and go after a takedown. Shahbazyan rips a few elbows to the side of Brunson’s head, but Brunson tosses him down anyway. Shahbazyan tries to get back to his feet, and avoids damage while getting to his knees. When he stands up, Brunson mashes him on the fence, so Shahbazyan delivers a big right hand that forces a break. Shahbazyan loads up on a few more rights, and Brunson backs off to shoot for a takedown. Shahbazyan nails him a few more times, and Brunson wobbles but keeps his composure as he eats these power shots. Shahbazyan ends the night well with a groin kick, and Brunson shrugs it off so there is not much of a pause. Brunson rushes in with looping hooks and elbows, and Shahbazyan backs away to reconsider his position. Brunson comes forward to implement a takedown, and Shahbazyan catches him on the chin with a knee. Brunson is not concerned, and he keeps pushing heavy, but Shahbazyan shoves him away. Brunson leads with a knee and a left hand, so Shahbazyan gives it back with a knee to the body and a right of his own. Brunson slaps low with a kick, and goes to the body, so Shahbazyan slings a few punches and an elbow as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan

Round 2
Perhaps surprising to some, we see a second round. Shahbazyan leads off with a head kick, and Brunson eats it like a steak and tries to throw back. Shahbazyan counters that offense with a right hook, and Brunson returns fire with a left hook. Shahbazyan overextends himself with a looping hook, allowing Brunson to take his leg and lift him up, setting Shahbazyan on his back. Shahbazyan springs right back up without effort, and in the clinch, we hear someone landed a cup shot. Neither pay it any mind, and they separate, which allows Brunson to kick to the body. When Shahbazyan advances, Brunson holds his fingers outstretched and jabs Shahbazyan in the eye, so Dean pauses the fight. On the break, Dean warns both fighters to keep track of their fingers, and Brunson sticks out a right hand to re-introduce it to Shahbazyan’s face. Shahbazyan digs him to the body with a kick that nearly makes Brunson double over, and as he tries to pour it on, Brunson counters him and bullies him against the fence. Brunson separates to string together a heavy series of punches, and he punctuates it with a knee. Shahbazyan loads up on a pair of enormous right hands, and they whiz by the bleach blonde hair of Brunson. Shahbazyan’s punches are more loose now, and his one-two is labored as Brunson ignores it. Brunson pressures him against the fence again, and lands a few shots while keeping his weight on the undefeated fighter. Brunson scoops the legs out and puts Shahbazyan down, where he drops down some powerful hammerfists as he takes side control. Shahbazyan rolls to his stomach, and Brunson keeps him trapped with punches, pounding on him while Shahbazyan twists and turns. Brunson is in half guard raining down punches, and Shahbazyan eats practically all of them as he is trapped on his back. Brunson postures up to hack at Shahbazyan with a nasty elbow, and Shahbazyan’s eyebrow is split wide open. The horn sounds, and when Shahbazyan sits on his stool between rounds, he nearly falls off as Dean calls in the doctor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Brunson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Brunson

Round 3
Shahbazyan may be hurt, but the cut is not in a bad enough spot to end the fight, so he requests to continue. Brunson comes out firing with a leg kick and looks much fresher, as he chases Shahbazyan around the cage.
Brunson leaps forward with a few reaching punches, and he rips Shahbazyan off his feet and starts clubbing him in the face with sledgehammers. Only a few more need to come down before Dean has seen enough
, and Brunson has now handed “The Golden Boy” the first loss of his career in devastating fashion. That spells the end of this shortened fight night, so see you next week for more action!

The Official Result
Derek Brunson def. Edmen Shahbazyan R3 0:26 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Brunson has been knocked out five times and is past his prime at 36, while Shahbazyan is a young 22-year-old beast with a high ceiling. He believes Shahbazyan will come out aggressively and touch Brunson's chin early, ending the fight in the first round. He mentions the line is off at -345 and suggests looking at inside the distance props.

inside the distance (-265), first round knockout
"i just see uh shabazzian ending this in the first round touching brunson on the chin"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Daniel picks Shahbazyan, praising his complete skill set including boxing, grappling, and takedowns. He notes that Brunson leads with his chin up and that Shahbazyan throws straight, disciplined shots. He expects a first-round knockout, citing Shahbazyan's 10 first-round finishes and his handling of Brad Tavares.

first round knockout
"i say he comes out here and gets the knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 29, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

The host picks Brunson despite being an underdog, citing concerns about Shahbazyan's cardio and lack of experience in later rounds. He notes that Shahbazyan looked poor in the third round against Darren Stewart and that Brunson's wrestling and grinding style could neutralize Shahbazyan's early power. He also mentions the smaller cage favoring Brunson's clinch game and that the line has moved too far in Shahbazyan's favor.

under 1.5 rounds not mentioned; host says 'dog or pass' and prefers Brunson at +270
"I'm going to go with brunson here i'm going to go with brunson via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The host picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by brutal KO in the first round. He notes Shahbazyan's calmness, distance control, and takedown defense, while criticizing Derek Brunson's tendency to come forward with his chin exposed and get knocked out by top competition. He mentions Brunson's pattern of beating lower-level guys and losing to rising contenders, and predicts a straight right or uppercut finish.

first round KO, straight right or uppercut finish
"shabazian gets the job done by brutal ko i think he gets it by a straight right right on the bottom right on the button as brunson comes in"
WIN vs Ian Heinisch
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 81 of 185 43% 102 of 207 2 of 10 20% 0 0 2:13
Ian Heinisch 0 58 of 143 40% 65 of 150 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 16 of 42 38% 27 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:58
Ian Heinisch 0 19 of 43 44% 21 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 29 of 55 52% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:38
Ian Heinisch 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Derek Brunson 0 36 of 88 40% 40 of 92 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:37
Ian Heinisch 0 26 of 66 39% 31 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 81 of 185 43% 51 of 142 26 of 37 4 of 6 69 of 170 7 of 9 5 of 6
Ian Heinisch 58 of 143 40% 37 of 114 16 of 23 5 of 6 49 of 130 8 of 12 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 16 of 42 38% 10 of 35 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 19 of 43 44% 8 of 31 7 of 8 4 of 4 14 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 29 of 55 52% 21 of 41 7 of 11 1 of 3 23 of 48 1 of 1 5 of 6
Ian Heinisch 13 of 34 38% 7 of 22 6 of 11 0 of 1 11 of 31 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Derek Brunson 36 of 88 40% 20 of 66 14 of 20 2 of 2 34 of 85 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 26 of 66 39% 22 of 61 3 of 4 1 of 1 24 of 63 2 of 3 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 56 of 94 59% 65 of 103 4 of 9 44% 0 0 3:17
Elias Theodorou 0 65 of 170 38% 87 of 194 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 14 of 24 58% 16 of 26 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:23
Elias Theodorou 0 16 of 42 38% 25 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Derek Brunson 0 22 of 37 59% 26 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Elias Theodorou 0 25 of 68 36% 34 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Derek Brunson 0 20 of 33 60% 23 of 36 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:21
Elias Theodorou 0 24 of 60 40% 28 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 56 of 94 59% 34 of 62 11 of 17 11 of 15 45 of 82 6 of 7 5 of 5
Elias Theodorou 65 of 170 38% 16 of 88 27 of 34 22 of 48 53 of 150 12 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 14 of 24 58% 11 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 15 3 of 4 5 of 5
Elias Theodorou 16 of 42 38% 1 of 17 11 of 12 4 of 13 9 of 33 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 22 of 37 59% 10 of 21 6 of 7 6 of 9 20 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
Elias Theodorou 25 of 68 36% 5 of 33 9 of 13 11 of 22 24 of 63 1 of 5 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 20 of 33 60% 13 of 23 3 of 6 4 of 4 19 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elias Theodorou 24 of 60 40% 10 of 38 7 of 9 7 of 13 20 of 54 4 of 6 0 of 0
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
TKO (knees and punches) R1 4:51 · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Nov 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 3 of 14 21% 9 of 23 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:34
Derek Brunson 3 13 of 23 56% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 3 of 14 21% 9 of 23 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:34
Derek Brunson 3 13 of 23 56% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 3 of 14 21% 2 of 11 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 13 of 23 56% 9 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 3 11 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 3 of 14 21% 2 of 11 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 13 of 23 56% 9 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 3 11 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 1
Kevin Holland - Fight History
SCHED vs Jacobe Smith
UFC Fight Night 281 · Jul 18, 2026
WIN vs Randy Brown
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 56 of 91 61% 137 of 176 0 of 3 0% 2 0 4:05
Randy Brown 0 46 of 95 48% 67 of 121 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 34 58% 48 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Randy Brown 0 18 of 39 46% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kevin Holland 0 19 of 31 61% 25 of 37 0 of 2 0% 2 0 1:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 26 53% 19 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Kevin Holland 0 17 of 26 65% 64 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 56 of 91 61% 24 of 55 10 of 11 22 of 25 39 of 68 11 of 15 6 of 8
Randy Brown 46 of 95 48% 25 of 65 14 of 17 7 of 13 31 of 75 12 of 17 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 20 of 34 58% 9 of 20 1 of 1 10 of 13 14 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 8
Randy Brown 18 of 39 46% 8 of 26 5 of 5 5 of 8 14 of 35 1 of 1 3 of 3
2 Kevin Holland 19 of 31 61% 6 of 18 4 of 4 9 of 9 16 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 26 53% 8 of 15 5 of 8 1 of 3 10 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 17 of 26 65% 9 of 17 5 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 15 8 of 11 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 30 46% 9 of 24 4 of 4 1 of 2 7 of 19 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.

"I'm not picking his ass. There's no caveat, there's no [ __ ] I am not picking him. Randy is the better fighter. I think he's literally better everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here... give me Randy Brown. Randy Brown by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.

"I got Brown as well... Randy Brown's still going for it. Randy Brown's still willing to engage hard if need be and maybe just fights with a little bit more of a game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.

"I have to pick Randy Brown. I know some point in this fight, Randy Brown's going to make a really dumb mistake that will almost get him killed. But Kevin Holland might be too busy goofing around to actually take …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.

"The fade Kevin Holland world tour rolls on, my friends. ... I'm going to pick Randy Brown to win this fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.

"I got Randy Brown here. I don't know how he's going to do it. And even if Randy Brown loses, we're fading Kevin Holland his very next fight, too."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.

"Kevin Holland is my official prediction. I will say I'll say submission, but I really don't know."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.

Brown wins by decision
"I'm going to go Brown here. I'm going to go Brown by decision. Uh and I think this minus 13 line is a damn good line to shoot on as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.

"I got Brown as well, but I can't say that there's any really good reason behind it... I feel like Randy Brown's just got a little more desire, a little more left in the tank."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.

"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.

"Same Randy Brown. At least the maddening thing about him is that he is always capable of being a fighter that you're really impressed by Kevin Holland. I don't think is he's becoming less and less capable of being a …"
LOSS vs Mike Malott
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 52 of 137 37% 76 of 162 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Mike Malott 0 49 of 95 51% 50 of 99 1 of 4 25% 1 1 2:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 9 of 31 29% 22 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Mike Malott 0 12 of 29 41% 13 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:30
2 Kevin Holland 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 26 of 42 61% 26 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 36 55% 31 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 52 of 137 37% 23 of 96 9 of 13 20 of 28 49 of 127 3 of 9 0 of 1
Mike Malott 49 of 95 51% 35 of 73 10 of 15 4 of 7 44 of 88 1 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 9 of 31 29% 3 of 22 3 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 26 1 of 4 0 of 1
Mike Malott 12 of 29 41% 8 of 20 1 of 3 3 of 6 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Kevin Holland 23 of 70 32% 12 of 55 3 of 4 8 of 11 22 of 68 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Malott 26 of 42 61% 17 of 32 8 of 9 1 of 1 26 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 20 of 36 55% 8 of 19 3 of 4 9 of 13 19 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mike Malott 11 of 24 45% 10 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 18 0 of 2 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-115); Holland (+100)

Round 1
The co-main event comes in the form of what should be an all-action welterweight affair that could have a little something for everybody. The fan-favorite Holland (28-14, 1 NC; 15-11, 1 NC UFC) will have to be the villain tonight as he goes into hostile territory to take on the last Canadian-born fighter on the night in Malott (12-2-1, 5-1 UFC). The two will hunt for bonus cash—and there is steep competition tonight—while regionally unpopular referee Dan Miragliotta watches on. Holland tries fairly hard to get a glove touch, but the Canadian wants nothing to do with it.
Holland puts his hand down and his foot up, to start kicking Malott in the lead leg. Malott is struggling to get in on the longer Holland, so Holland can pepper his front leg on either side without worrying about something coming back. When Malott responds with his own leg kick, Holland hops and swats out a left hand. The two appear to clash heads when coming at one another, and Malott unloads with a short combination before Holland can reach him. Malott fires off a body kick, and Holland knocks him off his feet with a fierce right hand. Holland considers slamming down high-amplitude hammerfists, and he leaps on top and delivers some damage. Holland stands back up and starts punching the Canadian in the thigh. Malott hits a sneaky sweep to put Holland on his seat.
Holland fights his way back up, and when Malott tries for a mat return, Holland bends like a reed in the wind and rolls all the way through the takedown attempt to end up on top. The welterweights scramble back to their feet, and clashing kicks leads to Malott inadvertently kicking Holland in the groin. Miragliotta calls time, and Holland laughs it off and is good to go within 20 seconds. They resume, and Holland appears fine, as he reaches Malott and knocks him back with a clean left hand. “Trailblazer” leaps at his man with a right hand, and he keeps his balance when Malott wraps him up to drag him down. When they tie up, Malott drills him in the groin with a knee, and Holland is not so jovial about it as he collapses to his knees.
Miragliotta tells the replay officials that he could hear the impact of the second groin strike, and he tells Malott that he knows that it was an accident but reminds him that it was two infractions already and the second appears to have clearly compromised the Texan. Holland gets to his knees but is still clutching his groin, and he reaches in to try to adjust himself and nearly exposes himself on camera. The replay officials appear to be confused, even though it is clear on the video that there was contact on the cup. Holland tries to stand after two-and-a-half minutes, and he is frustrated that the crowd is booing him and pulls himself up to his feet all while shaking his head repeatedly. Miragliotta tells Holland to take as much time as he needs, which is a smidge over a minute remaining. Miragliotta gives Malott a stern warning for the second groin shot, with no point deduction as commentator Daniel Cormier laments there is no consistency in regards to officiating these days with a fighter earlier losing a point from the first foul. Holland tries as hard as he can to shake off the injury, and he tells Miragliotta he is good to go 15 seconds later than stoppage time.
He is still in serious pain, and he takes more time to tap gloves with Malott and backpedals. Holland still adjusts his cup while dodging swings aimed at his head, and Malott allows him to recover even longer before going at him with a right hand and a head kick that are out of range. Holland gets up close to deliver an uppercut, and he bounces back in pain. Holland walks off before time elapses, and Malott throws his hands in the air out of frustration. The round ends with Holland suffering greatly, and it’s anyone’s guess what will happen between rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
Miragliotta calls in the doctor between rounds to check on Holland, who has not yet recovered. The doctor tells Holland that he will have to stop the fight if Holland cannot keep going, and again confusion and chaos is about as they are trying to ask him if he is able to continue. Holland doesn’t say yes or no, and instead grimaces in pain and adjusts himself. As he waits, eventually someone signals that he can keep going and that he cannot keep taking more time. The minute break may have been doubled based on that. Holland flashes his jab to keep his range and not let the Canadian to get him as he still tries to bounce around and relieve the pressure. Malott tosses out a half-hearted front kick, and Holland responds with a heavier one. Malott opens up with a flurry of fists, and Holland shoulder rolls them and takes a body kick. He keeps being his jab, and wings a clubbing right that is easily blocked, unable to put much power behind his punches. He ducks a takedown attempt and scoops a left around the guard to surprise his opponent. Holland swats out with lefts, and Malott tags him with a right hand. Malott’s front kick reaches the target of the jaw, and the replies from “Trailblazer” are a front kick and one to the calf.
The Texan narrowly avoids a left hand and pitches out a side kick, and they crack one another with simultaneous right hands. Holland slips back, and a front kick brushes the top of Malott’s shorts. Holland takes a heavy left hand and gathers his thoughts, sticking Malott with a low kick and a front kick. Holland sits down on a crisp right hand, and Malott walks through it. Holland adjusts his athletic support that is still bothering him, and a clinch leads to nowhere so they split up. Malott walks Holland down and decks him with several punches and a knee, and Holland rebounds off the fencing and fires back with a right hand to keep Malott honest. Holland tries for a one-two, and he is intercepted on the way out. Holland bloodies the Canadian’s nose with a jab and an uppercut that follows, and Malott tries to drive him back with a front kick but is elbowed for his handiwork. The round ends with Malott’s nose positively gushing blood.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Holland is still messed up from the groin shots, and tells Malott to keep things clean. They get down to it, with scores possibly two up for Malott or all tied up. Malott jabs the body with his toes outstretched, and Holland chips at his front leg a few times before darting him behind two left hands. Malott counters him up top, and lets Holland throw a kick to go for a big left hand. Holland re-opens Malott’s nose with jabs, and Malott takes a deep breath and blitzes forward. Holland keeps himself largely clear of danger, although the Canadian catches him with a few strikes. Holland’s own offense bounds off the guard, other than a stomping kick to the knee that briefly hyperextends it. Malott reaches out with a push kick to the upper chest, and Holland’s response is to the calf. Holland scores a single right hand and leans back from the obligatory counter, and Malott slides to the side and gets off a side kick and one high. Holland scoots his way forward and eats a few punches.
Holland lands a one-two, and Malott appears to get his attention as Holland bends over and briefly considers a takedown. He bails on it to stand up and further bloody up the Canadian. Malott runs at his opponent and lifts him off the ground, and Holland’s arm goes out of the cage as he apologizes and says he is not grabbing anything but just has long arms. Malott pulls him back inside and down flat on his back, and he smothers “Trailblazer” and bashes him with right hands. Holland uses upkicks and butterfly hooks to frame off, only for Malott to slice through and climb into half guard with 60 seconds remaining. Malott threatens with an arm-triangle choke, stepping over to full mount and then to the side to complete the submission. The ultra-slippery Holland reverse-somersaults to somehow get out of the submission, and he worms his way back to his feet with Malott right after him. The Canadian bullies him to the wire, and looks for a mat return to wrap things up. Instead, he elbows Holland once, and they shake hands after time expires with no bad blood between them. That was certainly a fight of all time.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott (30-27 Malott)

The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Mike Malott, citing his high fight IQ, technical improvements after the Magny loss, and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Kevin Holland's inconsistency and poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, calling it an all-time low. He trusts Malott's control and power.

"I got to go with Mike Malott."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady has zero trust in Kevin Holland after his loss to Daniel Rodriguez, calling him a dumbass and declining. He questions Malott's durability and cardio but picks him by default. He predicts Malott takes Holland down and submits him, noting Holland's ground game stinks.

Malott by submission
"I'm going to pick Mike Malott. I'm gonna pick Mike Malot to win this fight by submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Cody picks Malott, citing Kevin Holland's recent durability issues and high fight frequency. He notes Holland was knocked down twice by Daniel Rodriguez, a sign of declining chin. Malott has a wrestling advantage and can mix takedowns with striking. Cody believes Malott will win by decision or late stoppage, especially with home crowd support.

"I'm not going to take Kevin Holland. I'm going to go with Mike Malot."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Connor picks Malott, emphasizing that Holland cannot be trusted to fight disciplined. He notes that Malott is proficient and consistent, with sharp boxing in the pocket. Connor points out that Holland's approach of 'having fun' leads to messy fights, and his chin may be deteriorating after getting hurt by Daniel Rodriguez. He believes Malott can outwork Holland.

Odds: Holland opened at +130, currently -110; Malott opened at -150, currently -110.
"I definitely have a lot more faith in Mike Molotu fight a smart fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

James admits he has a poor track record betting on Malott fights but picks Malott due to his skill set and potential improvements after the Neil Magny loss. He questions Kevin Holland's recent form and durability, noting Holland's poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez. James expects a slow-paced fight and predicts Malott via decision, though he is not confident.

"I will pick Mike Malot in this fight. I think that he's still coming into his own. I think he may have improved after that Neil Magny fight. I think he might manage his cardio a little bit better. I …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host thinks this is a tough stylistic matchup for Malott. He believes Holland can pick Malott apart from distance with his speed, range, and distance work, and will eventually find a big shot to put Malott away.

win by knockout
"I think Holland can really pick apart Melot from distance and Meot on paper is a better skill for skill fighter than Holland but I just don't think he can keep up with the speed, range or distance work of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Holland, arguing that the D-Rod fight was on short notice and Holland has had three months to prepare. He believes Holland's length and reach advantage will be key, and that Malott may gas as he did against Magny. Paul sees value in Holland as a dog and plans to bet him.

"Holland Holland's the pick for me at a pick on price."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott over Kevin Holland. He notes Malott's submission skills and takedowns, and his game plan against Neil Magny. He criticizes Holland's inconsistency and chin issues. He predicts Malott will chew at the leg, get takedowns, and finish by arm triangle submission in round two.

arm triangle submission in round two
"I'm going with Mike Malott, and I'm going to take Mike Malott by arm triangle submission."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mike Malott

Zane picks Malott, citing his composure, defensive soundness, and ability to pick targets. He notes that Malott can outwrestle Holland and kick his legs. Zane is concerned about Holland's inconsistency and recent poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, where Holland made terrible errors and got hurt. He believes Malott will fight a smart fight.

Odds: Holland opened at +130, currently -110; Malott opened at -150, currently -110.
"So yeah, I'll take Molot over Holland, but it's not a bad test from a lot."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 1 82 of 173 47% 111 of 207 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:07
Kevin Holland 2 77 of 149 51% 111 of 189 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Kevin Holland 0 29 of 60 48% 32 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 12 of 28 42% 34 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:05
Kevin Holland 2 31 of 55 56% 44 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
3 Daniel Rodriguez 1 30 of 62 48% 37 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 34 50% 35 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 82 of 173 47% 53 of 126 13 of 22 16 of 25 60 of 137 17 of 27 5 of 9
Kevin Holland 77 of 149 51% 49 of 106 13 of 26 15 of 17 54 of 107 6 of 7 17 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 40 of 83 48% 20 of 50 6 of 12 14 of 21 39 of 81 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 29 of 60 48% 12 of 30 8 of 19 9 of 11 28 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 12 of 28 42% 8 of 21 3 of 4 1 of 3 7 of 21 4 of 6 1 of 1
Kevin Holland 31 of 55 56% 27 of 51 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 22 5 of 6 14 of 27
3 Daniel Rodriguez 30 of 62 48% 25 of 55 4 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 35 12 of 19 4 of 8
Kevin Holland 17 of 34 50% 10 of 25 4 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-395), Rodriguez (+310)

Round 1
The busiest athlete in the company these days, Holland (28-13, 1 NC; 15-10, 1 NC UFC) is entering into his fourth fight of the year in the middle of July. Looking for his third win in a row, he tangles with 10th Planet rep Rodriguez (19-5, 9-4 UFC), who is also doing the same. One of their streaks must end in the next three rounds or fewer, and referee Mike Beltran will be the first to know. Possibly a victory or two from reaching the top 10, the welterweights bump fists knowing this could be the start of something significant.
Holland immediately starts talking, asking Rodriguez if he is a winner. Rodriguez ignores him and comes out swinging, hurling his left hook several times at “Trailblazer.” Holland springs out of the way and circles away to not get caught with anything noteworthy, and he stays on the outside slamming kicks to Rodriguez’ front leg. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, and Holland grabs hold of him and turns him around in the clinch. Rodriguez breaks free, and once again he is faced with the taller, longer man reaching his kicks at him. The two get tied up again, and they both let hands fly for a moment. Rodriguez reaches with his left, and he parries a head kick that comes up in a hurry. Holland jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and Rodriguez retaliates with a chopping calf kick. Rodriguez lands a low kick, and Holland recoils his limb and wings it back at his foe. Both fighters attack the body, and then trade low kicks.
Holland tags his foe at the end of a right hand and a quick left, which sets up three more punches over the top. Holland clips Rodriguez with an overhand right, and a foul is ignored as both men just want to trade. Holland turns his hips and busts Rodriguez in the chops with a side kick, and he is quick to have to defend an oncoming Rodriguez who throws hard at him. Both fighters appear to graze the cup with kicks, and Holland rolls with a combo and dings Rodriguez with a right hand on the forehead. The Californian grits his teeth and connects with a left hook that destabilizes his opponent. Holland gets up and rushes backwards to the fence to recover, doing so long enough to get his bearings again. When he reengages, Holland takes a jab on the chin and still manages to get Rodriguez with an elbow. Rodriguez lands a big left, and Holland chains several punches together to get him back. Rodriguez puts hands on the Texan once more, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Two more kicks to the body from “Trailblazer” wrap up the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rodriguez aims to the front leg first as Holland tries to check it. Holland defends a combination of punches by trying to tie Rodriguez up, and Rodriguez is able to shuck him off and punch him square in the face. Rodriguez measures a big left hand that rocks “Trailblazer,” who goes down in a heap. Rodriguez jumps on top of his wounded opponent, laying into him with ground-and-pound until he advances to side control. Rather than do anything further on the mat, Rodriguez backs off and makes Holland stand. Holland is quick to shoot for a double, and Rodriguez tosses him aside and bludgeons him with more big hammers. “D-Rod” knocks Holland to his seat a second time, pouncing to get into the guard so he can try to finish the job. Rodriguez passes to half guard, slugging Holland into the face every so often while Holland looks to control the wrist. Holland thinks about a guillotine choke off his back, but Rodriguez punches his way out of it.
Holland tries to isolate an arm for an armbar setup, and Rodriguez breaks out of it and stands. Holland follows him and blasts him in the face with a right hand, only for Rodriguez to tank it and swing back fearlessly. Holland scores hard again with an overhand right, and Rodriguez ignores it and comes back swinging. The Texan ducks under and hits a double, putting Rodriguez flat on his back with about 100 seconds to go. Holland stays tightly pressed on Rodriguez while in half guard, and he attacks the body and head when sitting up. Rodriguez tries to sit up too, and Holland has a trap for him in the form of a slick brabo choke. Rodriguez, the jiu-jitsu practitioner, shakes off the choke but is drilled with a left hand and an elbow. Holland shoots for another takedown, pushing Rodriguez to the fence and falling into a guillotine choke. Holland stands up to get out of it, his face bloodied, and he does not care as he smacks Rodriguez with a jump knee. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
The fighters share a last glove touch and get right to business. Rodriguez floats a low kick, darting away when Holland advances with body shots. Rodriguez swipes his way forward with a left to the liver, and he has a one-two bash Holland on the side of the head. Holland whiffs on a right hand up top and a head kick on the same side, and he sways back as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, clacking heads with his opponent on the way in. Rodriguez goes the body, prompting Holland to go straight at him with fists flying. Rodriguez beats the Texan to the punch, until Holland grits his teeth and knocks Rodriguez clean off his feet with a short but nasty uppercut. Rodriguez survives the ground strikes when hitting the ground to stand back up, and Holland wraps up a standing brabo choke. Rodriguez breaks out of it, and Holland attacks with the fury of a thousand suns. Battering Rodriguez with winging punches, jump knees, mean-spirited uppercuts and anything else he can offer, Holland has Rodriguez on the ropes. Rodriguez throws back with bad intentions, and Holland’s knee rocks him to his core.
A desperate Rodriguez tries to take the fight down, and Holland hurls him to his knees and is quick to force a back take. Holland wraps up a rear-naked choke but it is around the side, and Rodriguez is able to slide out of it and push past a triangle choke. Holland uses a high guard to hold on with a triangle choke that is more of a high guard than anything, and Rodriguez grabs the fence to get out of it. Beltran slaps his hands out of the cage grab, and Rodriguez advances to side control and then full mount with a minute to go. Rodriguez starts raining down a bombardment of punches, with Holland pushing off the cage wall with his feet while shelling up to guard his face. Holland rolls all the way over and shoots for a takedown of his own, and Rodriguez defends with a power guillotine choke and pushes Holland over to his back. “D-Rod” reassumes full mount after releasing the choke, sitting up to smack Holland around until time expires. This could have used two more rounds, as the crowd goes wild after 15 titillating minutes of magnificent melee.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.

"Kevin Holland absolutely smokes here. He's faster, he's cleaner, he's more powerful."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.

Holland by first round knockout
"Give me Kevin Holland to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.

"I have to pick Kevin Holland. No matter what."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.

knockout
"I expect him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and I think he can utilize his speed and stinging power to eventually line up a knockout getting that victory over Daniel Rodriguez."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.

Fight lasts more than 10 minutes (prop bet mentioned earlier in transcript)
"I'm going to go with Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Holland is significantly faster and that Rodriguez's recent performances against older fighters show he is not a threat. He notes that Holland's worst performances still have high work rate, making him a safe pick.

"It just feels like a shoe-in for Kevin Holland."
WIN vs Vicente Luque
Submission R2 1:03 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 24 of 46 52% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 22 of 40 55% 22 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 35 of 64 54% 39 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vicente Luque 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 24 of 46 52% 14 of 32 3 of 6 7 of 8 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 40 of 74 54% 25 of 58 5 of 6 10 of 10 26 of 56 14 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 22 of 40 55% 13 of 28 3 of 5 6 of 7 22 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 35 of 64 54% 23 of 51 5 of 6 7 of 7 21 of 46 14 of 18 0 of 0
2 Vicente Luque 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-265), Luque (+215)

Round 1
The referee for our main card opener is Keith Peterson. Luque takes the center of the Octagon, while Holland is already talking. Luque catches a kick, but Holland lands a half-dozen punches and makes his opponent pay for just standing there. A left hook from Luque hits the shoulder of Holland. Luque follows up a left hook with a nice leg kick. Holland lands a nice elbow that hurts Luque, who fires back with an overhand that keeps Holland from pressuring. Luque lands a double jab, which isn't enough to keep Holland from talking every second of this fight. There is a huge knot on the side of Luque's head where the elbow landed. It looks nasty. Luque stuns Holland with a left hook, but Holland responds nicely by slipping a punch and landing a right hook. Nice jab to the body by Holland. Luque lands a leg kick, which allows Holland to land a right hand. High kick from Holland is blocked.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
The round starts with Holland missing a huge right hook. Luque is struggling with the length of Holland, who is able to attack from a distance. Holland catches a kick from Luque and pushes him to the ground. Luque tries to get up, but Holland sinks in a brabo choke. It looks tight, and Luque is forced to tap.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Vicente Luque via Submission (Brabo Choke); R2, 1:03.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Angelo picks Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland because he trusts Vicente to execute a game plan, while Kevin is unreliable with poor takedown defense and a lack of care. He notes Kevin's takedown defense is still poor despite his length and jiu-jitsu. He thinks even a fraction of Vicente's wrestling from the Dos Anjos fight will be enough.

"Vicente Luc is going to be the pick. At least you can trust him to do what he's supposed to do."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady is very confident in Kevin Holland, citing Luque's recent durability issues and quitting in his last fight. He believes Luque will try to wrestle but Holland is hard to wrestle at welterweight. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Holland will hurt Luque and knock him out early, possibly in the first round. He notes Luque's brain hemorrhage and that he shouldn't be fighting.

Holland by KO in round 1
"I think Kevin Holland knocks out Lu and I think he does it in the very first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Holland. He emphasizes that Luque has slowed down and his reactions are worse, while Holland is still physically sharp. Connor notes that Holland's best performances come when he is not forced to pressure, and Luque's forward pressure will allow Holland to counter effectively. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Holland.

Odds: Holland -258, Luque +122. Connor thinks the line is fair.
"I also think this was a very winnable matchup for Kevin Holland."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host went back and forth on this fight. He ultimately sticks with Kevin Holland winning by knockout due to his speed and power, but notes that Vicente Luque is a very live underdog, especially if he can get takedowns and use his submission game.

Luque is a live underdog; Holland by KO
"I will stick with my prediction of Kevin Holland winning by knockout. But I think Vicente Luc is a very live underdog, especially if he can get to his takedowns and showcase his slick submission game as we've seen in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, despite being a big fan of Luque. He believes Holland's range and volume will be key, as Luque struggles against fighters who stay at range and don't overcommit. He notes Holland's durability and ability to fight from bottom. He predicts a decision win for Holland, possibly 29-28, with Luque winning a round.

Finish prediction: decision win.
"I think Holland wins this one though, man. It's hard to get to Holland's chin moving forward..."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Zane picks Kevin Holland, noting that when Holland fights on the back foot he uses his jab effectively and looks like a complete boxer. He believes Luque's slower reactions and declining chin will be exploited by Holland's reach and counterpunching. Zane thinks this matchup favors Holland's style, similar to his win over Jack Della Maddalena.

Odds: Holland -258, Luque +122. Zane thinks the line is reasonable.
"I think he'll win."
WIN vs Gunnar Nelson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gunnar Nelson 0 15 of 24 62% 30 of 44 3 of 10 30% 1 0 9:29
Kevin Holland 1 55 of 89 61% 138 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gunnar Nelson 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Kevin Holland 1 19 of 37 51% 31 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Gunnar Nelson 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 11 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:22
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 23 73% 73 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
3 Gunnar Nelson 0 7 of 9 77% 10 of 13 1 of 4 25% 1 0 3:12
Kevin Holland 0 19 of 29 65% 34 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gunnar Nelson 15 of 24 62% 10 of 19 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 7 of 8 6 of 9
Kevin Holland 55 of 89 61% 30 of 57 15 of 20 10 of 12 15 of 34 22 of 27 18 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gunnar Nelson 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 37 51% 10 of 24 3 of 5 6 of 8 9 of 20 4 of 4 6 of 13
2 Gunnar Nelson 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 1
Kevin Holland 17 of 23 73% 9 of 15 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 7 6 of 7 8 of 9
3 Gunnar Nelson 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4
Kevin Holland 19 of 29 65% 11 of 18 6 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 7 12 of 16 4 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Gunnar Nelson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nelson (-130), Holland (+110)

Round 1
Dan Movahedi will referee Nelson’s first fight since March 2023. Holland opens with a pair of inside leg kicks. Nelson is operating from his usual karate stance. Another leg kick for Holland, who has a significant reach edge. Nelson tries to charge in, but he’s rebuffed by Holland. Holland with a long jab and right hand. Nelson shoots and gets Holland down. Holland is active from his back, threatening with submissions, but Nelson is a savvy grappler. Nelson stands and picks Holland up with one arm and both fighters share a laugh. Nelson goes back to work from above, but he’ll have to navigate his foe’s long limbs. Holland is landing hammerfists from his bck on occasion. Nelson with a solid right from top position. Holland lands an elbow from his back. Nelson is struggling to find openings for offense from above. The Iceland native drops a short elbow. Nelson stands and has to worry about Holland’s upkicks before moving back on top. They stand late in the round, and Holland drops Nelson with a one-two. He hovers over Nelson and drops heavy standing to ground shots. Nelson is saved by the horn, but Holland might've landed one after the buzzer.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
Holland is aggressive, and he punches his way into the clinch behind an uppercut. Holland with a knee and a foot stomp. They separate and size each other up from range. Holland with a solid inside low kick. Holland is measuring the right hand that dropped Nelson in Round 1. Nelson is working hard for a takedown, but Holland is able to stay upright. Nelson adjusts against the fence, but Holland maintains his footing. Nelson is clinging to the leg, and Holland stays busy with short strikes. Nelson pulls Holland off the fence and drags him to the canvas with about 2:00 to go. Nelson is in top position, but Holland is active again, both with his guard and strikes from his back. Nelson is simply holding position as Holland continues to work from his back. Holland with an upkick as Nelson stands. Nelson works his way back into full guard as the round draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 3
Holland chips away at the legs of Nelson before they collide in the clinch. Holland lands a knee in close. Nelson counters with uppercuts, but another Holland knee gets through. Nelson decides against continuing to trade offense in the clinch, and he changes levels for a takedown. Nelson moves into full mount with ease. Holland kicks off the fence to remove Nelson from mount, but the grappling ace is still in top position. Holland is warned to remove his toes from the cage. Nelson absorbs a series of heel strikes to to the head. He responds by dropping a right from above. Nelson transitions to an arm triangle during a scramble. He’s close to the cage, but it looks pretty deep. Holland looks comfortable for now, and he’s able to eventually escape to his feet. Holland pushes Nelson into the fence. Nelson is looking at the clock now. Holland with a knee to the midsection. Back at range, Holland connects with a front kick. Nelson closes the distance but eats another knee for his efforts. Holland denies a takedown and the welterweights battle in the clinch. Holland breaks free and falls to his back after missing on a knee before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite his poor takedown defense, arguing that skill-wise Holland is the better fighter. He notes that Holland is likely fighting for his job at welterweight and will be motivated. He criticizes Gunnar Nelson's inactivity (2 years), poor striking differential, and lack of wins over active UFC fighters. He has a small bet on Holland.

Small bet on Kevin Holland
"I am going to pick Kevin and I know his takedown defense is worse than my six-year-old daughter's... but damn it at times he's a good fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Brady is very hesitant but picks Holland, calling it 'One Last Ride'. He notes Nelson is 36, inactive (2 fights in 5 years), has no striking, and is coming off a 2-year layoff. Holland has an astronomical striking advantage and is fighting at welterweight where he belongs. Brady predicts a second-round knockout.

Holland by KO round 2
"One Last Ride Kevin Holland don't let me down knock this guy out give me Kevin Holland to win this fight and win this fight by second round knock out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nelson. He highlights Holland's inability to wrestle seriously and his tendency to fall apart when pressured. Nelson's striking, though limited, will force Holland to close distance, leading to takedowns and submissions. Connor is confident Nelson will look the same despite the layoff.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"Yeah, I mean I just feel like because of the who gunner nelson always has been as a fighter ... he'll probably look pretty much exactly the same."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The host notes Nelson doesn't fight often but still showcases superb jiu-jitsu. He expects Nelson to get a body lock, drag the fight to the ground, find the back, and secure a submission win over Holland.

submission
"I think he'll be able to showcase that once again here, eventually getting the body lock, dragging this fight to the ground, and eventually finding the back and wrapping up a submission win over Kevin Holland."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

The Guru confidently picks Gunnar Nelson, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and takedown entries. He expects Nelson to get a takedown, take Holland's back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes that Holland is susceptible to grapplers and has not finished anyone early in a long time. He acknowledges a small chance Holland lands a 45-70 kick but dismisses it.

submission round 1 (rear-naked choke)
"I'm gonna have to imagine Gana Nelson gets a takedown and gets a re naked choke over Kevin Holland"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gunnar Nelson

Zane confidently picks Nelson, arguing that Holland's poor wrestling and tendency to crash forward will play directly into Nelson's strengths. Nelson's karate-style striking and elite ground game will exploit Holland's lack of takedown defense and submission awareness. He expects Holland to either get taken down and submitted or run into Nelson's clinch.

Nelson opened at -133, currently -120; Holland opened at +102, currently +107.
"If we simply go with the assumption that nelson is going to look more or less the same ... I think kevin holland is going to leap right into his hands."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:31 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-112), Holland (-108)

Round 1
Striker battles grappler to kick off the main card of UFC 311, although that might be a bit of an overgeneralization considering Holland (26-12, 1 NC; 13-9, 1 NC UFC) has landed some nifty brabo chokes in recent memory. He will come to blows, and/or roll with de Ridder (18-2, 1-0 UFC, who got his feet wet in the UFC last November by outhustling savant submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert and tapping “GM3” out. Whether this fight ends by knockout, submission or something else entirely, referee Frank Trigg will be here for the middleweights every step of the way. There is a touch of gloves to get things going, and de Ridder shoots in for a single immediately. Holland hits his back and wraps a leg around the head of his opponent, setting up a triangle and nearly transitioning it to an armbar. When de Ridder lords over him, Holland drills him with surprisingly effective hammerfists from his back. De Ridder lowers himself down into the guard, thwarting any subs coming his way. De Ridder grinds down with elbows to the chest, with Holland hanging onto the wrists before flailing his legs to get some space. An upkick or two may have gotten de Ridder’s attention, but de Ridder is still on top of him. Holland starts talking to Trigg, mentioning that he took a knee to the head, and he laughs. Holland keeps striking from off his back, and de Ridder elbows him back to shred a mean cut open on his forehead. Holland sways to avoid more ground-and-pound, but the Dutch fighter drew first blood. De Ridder unloads with standing-to-ground punches, pinning Holland to his back and letting Holland scramble so he can take his back. Holland stands up, and de Ridder is on his back, but barely. Holland lowers himself down to put his arms on the mat to take some of the weight off, and he rolls through and is followed. “RDR” fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke, and it is tight in a hurry. Holland considers taking his mouthpiece out to alleviate some of the danger, but he realizes that his goose is cooked and that the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” has him dead to rights. As the choke is not going anywhere, Holland has no choice but to tap out before getting put to sleep. With that clear-cut win in his pocket, de Ridder places himself in prime position for big fights ahead.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Kevin Holland R1 3:31 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.

"I do think he wins this fight the odds are ing last time I said I thought he was going to win this fight he was a much bigger underdog now he's plus 115"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.

Mentions de Ridder may finish inside the distance with a submission. No specific odds.
"Rainer to Ritter that's exactly what he's looking to do he's not looking to have a fun striking match with you... he's looking to throw a right hand he's going to look to close that pocket get a hold of …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.

Odds: de Ridder opened +132, now -105; Holland opened -147, now -105. Connor thinks de Ridder deserves to be the favorite.
"I gotta take Reinier de Ridder."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.

Daniel took de Ridder at +126 for 2 units. He says the fade Kevin Holland World Tour continues and expects a submission win.
"I took uh rer der rder about a week or two ago at a plus 126"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.

"I'm going with the Ridder in this fight obviously it's a bit of a step up in competition from gm3 Kevin Holland is a Mainstay in the UFC but at the end of the day I don't think Kevin Holland …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.

submission victory
"I think he's going to struggle to keep darer off of him which will lead to dder eventually finding a dominant position and getting a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I'm with you I'll I'll take rer the Ritter at a pick on price here as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.

submission
"I will take Raina Dara to submit Kevin Holland early or in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane also picks de Ridder, agreeing with Connor. He emphasizes that Holland's willingness to engage in grappling exchanges will be his downfall. Zane notes that de Ridder's size and grappling ability will allow him to control the fight once it hits the mat. He points out that Holland has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, and de Ridder is a significant step up. Zane also mentions that Holland's striking is inconsistent, and even if he has a good boxing performance, he'll likely abandon it for grappling.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm gonna take de Ridder as well."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
TKO (corner stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 19 of 33 57% 57 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
Kevin Holland 0 18 of 28 64% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 19 of 33 57% 16 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 23
Kevin Holland 18 of 28 64% 5 of 13 3 of 4 10 of 11 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)

Round 1
Stepping in for fellow Xtreme Couture product Chris Curtis, Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC) will drop down in weight for this middleweight matchup. He stands across the cage from Holland (26-11, 1 NC; 13-8, 1 NC UFC), content to let his fists do the talking. The men that share knockout rates of 54% apiece will be joined in the cage by referee Jason Herzog. They opt to clap hands, and a front kick from Holland follows shortly thereafter. Dolidze takes the center of the cage but cannot get out of the way from two more kicks, and Holland jumps forward to reach him with a left hook around the guard. Holland slaps a pair of low kicks on the inner thigh, and he strafes around to not let Dolidze corner him. Holland’s kicks peck at the Georgian, and he chains two punches up top before landing with a leg kick. Dolidze scores a left hand, and he gets tripped up when Holland grabs hold of his kicking leg to stumble him. Dolidze resets and plods forward, and Holland uses his reach advantage to get off three punches before Dolidze hits him back. Dolidze fires back with a vengeance, and his strikes largely go wide. Holland chips at the front leg as he stays moving, and he tosses out another from the other leg. Dolidze charges like a bull, tackling Holland to the mat and putting him on his back relatively easily. Holland wraps his legs around the waist, hand-fighting to not let Dolidze hit him cleanly. Dolidze softens Holland up with ground-and-pound, landing short shots until Holland opens his guard and heel strikes the Georgian in the kidney repeatedly. The crowd turns on the ground fighting, and the fighters do little different to change their strategies. Holland goes back and forth between a body lock off his back and striking with his heel, and Dolidze is happy to slug away. Holland rolls for an armbar, and he rolls over and something awkward happens as Holland appears to be injured or compromised. Holland keeps moving, and he turns to his back as Dolidze climbs into full mount. Herzog asks for more activity, and Holland starts talking trash to Dolidze while Dolidze is busting him in the face with elbows and powerful punches. The horn sounds, and Holland stands up and points to his rib. Holland goes back to his corner, and he tells his team that he is struggling and does not want to quit. Holland’s corner asks him repeatedly if he can keep going. Holland’s coach, Kru Bob Perez, decides that Holland needs to be saved from himself to fight another day and calls the fight off. Meanwhile, the victorious Dolidze is awarded his jiu-jitsu black belt for the technical knockout victory.

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland R1 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance, decision no action
"Roman L is going to be the pick... I'm betting inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.

submission, second round
"I'm liking delit here I think um I'm going to go with delid by submission here in the second round but I I could also see a scenario where you know the Striking is competitive if not favors Holland delit …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.

"I'm actually going to go with Kevin Holland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm gonna pick roman dulce. Yeah in a really really ugly fight really frustrating."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.

Dolidze by submission +1400
"I will take Roman Dolidze, I think he gets the ground game going and I know Holland hasn't been submitted in a while and I know Dolidze hasn't had a submission in a while but what do you think that …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.

"I think Roman Del wants the grown man this guy Pin him up against the fence makes him those takedowns I think he can do that"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.

"I think Holland I'm afraid he's gonna like get underneath him on the ground and just do what he does lying on his back hopefully he does not do that because he's good enough grappling not to have to do …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.

surprised that the line is as close as it is
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is as close as it is I think the Reckless fighting style of Del will lead him into getting picked apart by Kevin Holland"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.

"I bet a little bit of deletes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.

"I'm going to go Roman delzy I like Holland at welterweight I like Holland at welterweight they're a bit better down there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.

Holland opened at -142, now -137. Dolidze opened at +127, now +123. Zane is surprised Holland is favored.
"Gotta pick dulcie. He's big and strong and kevin will let him tie up and this will be that uh, you know."
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant, acknowledging the line is off and Brunson is the value side. He notes Holland has red flags in his takedown defense and cardio, but Brunson has been knocked out five times and may struggle to hold Holland down. Brady expects Holland to knock out Brunson in the second round, as Holland is dangerous off his back and has a steel chin. He says the KO prop at +160 is not a bad look.

Kevin Holland wins by KO in round 2; KO prop +160
"i'm going to take kevin hall to win by knockout i'm going to say he's going to be the sixth person to knock out derek brunson"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2021 (fight day)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland, citing his creativity and unquantifiable skills. He acknowledges Brunson's improved composure but believes Holland's experience and talent will prevail. He notes Holland's overconfidence as a concern but still expects a spectacular finish. He mentions Holland's past injury in the Darren Stewart fight as a possible excuse for that poor performance.

Holland by something spectacular
"i'm gonna go with kevin holland to catch him with something opportunistic"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Brunson has rejuvenated his career at Sanford MMA, becoming more disciplined and conservative. He should have a wrestling advantage and can control Holland against the cage or on the ground. Holland's cardio is untested in five-round fights, and he showed flaws against Darren Stewart. Brunson's chin narrative is overblown; he's been more careful. Brunson by decision is the pick, with the decision prop at +365 offering value.

Brunson by decision (+365), over 2.5 rounds (-130)
"I like brunson man i like this brunson since he's moved over to stanford mma"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to beat Derek Brunson. He believes Holland has shown a good jiu-jitsu game off his back, which previous Brunson opponents lacked, and can work early for a TKO. He notes Brunson's tendency to crumble under trash talk, as seen against Israel Adesanya, and expects Brunson to shoot desperately and get caught. However, he admits concern because Brunson has a knack for pulling off upsets.

"kevin holland is going to beat derrick branson because derrick branson can't fight"