UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.

Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.

Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.

Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.

Angelo acknowledges this fight has trap written all over it. He notes Joanderson Brito has power and Pat Sabatini is chinny, but also that Brito's BJJ off his back is poor while Sabatini is phenomenal on top. He predicts the fight won't go the distance, with Brito likely knocking out Sabatini or Sabatini submitting Brito. He picks Brito due to cardio improvements and power, but warns Sabatini could sneak a win as a dog.

Big Brady picks Joanderson Brito, citing Pat Sabatini's questionable chin and Brito's power. He believes Sabatini needs a perfect 15-minute grappling performance to win, but Brito will eventually land a big shot and knock him out, likely in the first round.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Brito. He highlights Brito's dangerous athleticism and Sabatini's stiffness on the feet. Connor notes that Brito's chaotic style often leads to finishes, and while Sabatini could win by grinding him down, Brito's ability to create scrambles and his durability make him the pick. He also mentions Brito's tendency to put himself in bad positions but believes Sabatini is too breakable.

Sabatini could have success with his chain wrestling and BJJ, but Brito's striking and power are favored. Brito is expected to land big power shots that Sabatini cannot handle, leading to a knockout in the first or second round.

The Guru picks Joanderson Brito, calling him too powerful, fast, and dangerous on the feet. He notes Brito's win over Diego Lopez and believes he will stuff Sabatini's takedowns and land strikes for a TKO. He expects a first-round finish, possibly within two minutes, and considers the matchup a mismatch.

Zane picks Brito, emphasizing Sabatini's stiff striking and vulnerability to being overwhelmed. He notes Brito's athleticism and tendency to finish fights, but also his recklessness. Zane believes Sabatini's anxious, structured style will struggle with Brito's chaotic, high-pressure approach, and that Brito's athleticism will create a moment where Sabatini can't secure a takedown and gets caught.

Angelo picks the underdog Cortavious Romious, citing his solid grappling, decent striking, and good leg kicks. He criticizes Lee Chang-ho for claiming to be the 'Korean Khabib' despite being hittable and having poor wrestling. He believes Romious can take advantage of Lee's forward pressure by lowering his level for takedowns. He notes Romious hasn't proven to be UFC caliber yet but likes the plus money.

Big Brady picks Cortavious Romious, criticizing Lee Chang-ho's self-proclaimed 'Korean Khabib' nickname and his poor grappling performances. He believes Romious is the better striker and grappler, and expects him to win a damage-based decision, though he notes Romious makes mistakes.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Romious. He emphasizes that Lee is not a good fighter and Romious, despite his flaws, is a decent athlete with a recognizable game. Connor also jokes about a potential DQ headbutt, noting that both fighters tend to clash heads, but ultimately sees Romious as the clear better fighter.

This should be a grapple fest but Lee's resiliency will pull through, being more successful in scrambles and more assertive in grappling, leading to more control time and damage to win on the scorecards.

The Guru picks Lee Chang-ho, citing his size and dynamic power. He notes Cortavious Romious is not big enough for bantamweight and had a poor debut. He thinks Chang-ho's size and skill will be too much, though he doesn't elaborate much.

Zane picks Romious, citing his superior athleticism and the fact that Lee is a 'formless mess' who will fling himself into Romious's grasp. He notes Romious's aggressive guard and submission skills, predicting a messy grappling scramble that Romious wins. Zane also points out that Lee's record is padded with cans and he has never faced a good fighter, while Romious, despite being trained to fight like a bad athlete, is still a decent athlete with a recognizable game.

Angelo notes Brad Tavares has fought everyone and has solid striking and 80% takedown defense, while Gerald Meerschaert is a good grappler but sucks on the feet and gets hit a lot. He warns that taking Meerschaert down is dangerous, but Tavares has the fight IQ to avoid that. Angelo picks Tavares but thinks the odds are high for a guy with only one win in three years, and suggests a 'win inside the distance' prop might be a sharp play.

Big Brady picks the underdog Gerald Meerschaert, citing Brad Tavares's decline after the Dricus du Plessis fight and poor recent performances. He believes Meerschaert has underrated striking and a huge grappling advantage, and expects him to submit Tavares in the second round.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Meerschaert. He emphasizes that Tavares is a neutralizer who no longer believes in his own power and doesn't follow up on damage. Connor notes that Meerschaert has become craftier on the feet and that Tavares's defensive shell will be his downfall. He calls the matchup terrible matchmaking but sees Meerschaert as the logical winner.

Tavares is clearly diminishing at 1-4 in his last five fights. Meerschaert can push a pace and get the grappling going in the first and second rounds, leading to a classic Meerschaert submission in round two or three.

The Guru picks Brad Tavares, emphasizing his takedown defense and ability to keep the fight standing. He thinks Meerschaert's body kicks and takedown attempts will be slow and predictable, and Tavares will be snappier on the feet. He expects a decision win for Tavares, though notes Meerschaert comes alive in the third round.

Zane picks Meerschaert, arguing that Brad Tavares is 'cooked' and no longer dangerous. He notes Tavares's lack of motivation, tendency to shell up when hurt, and inability to finish fights. Zane points out that Meerschaert has improved his boxing and reach usage, and has a win over Bruno Silva who knocked out Tavares. He believes Meerschaert's willingness to win and Tavares's decline make Meerschaert the clear pick.

Angelo highlights Torrez Finney's incredible cardio despite his muscular build, his blast double leg takedown, and his wrestling pressure. He notes Robert Valentin is a creative striker but hittable and was taken down by a D1 wrestler in his last fight. Angelo believes Finney's lack of neck and short arms make submissions difficult for Valentin, and that Finney's pace and wrestling will overwhelm him. He wishes the odds were closer but picks Finney.

Big Brady is high on Torrez Finney, praising his wrestling, cardio, and durability despite a suspect chin. He notes Robert Valentin cannot stuff takedowns and may quit. He expects Finney to take Valentin down and pound him out for a second-round TKO.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Finney. He notes that Valentin is extremely unprepared for this level, with no takedown defense and a poor grappling game. Connor sees Finney's singular focus on takedowns as a strength here, and while he doubts Finney's long-term UFC future, this fight is an easy win for him.

Finney is a tank but the resistance and violent nature of Valentin is expected to wear on Finney, leading to a third-round stoppage for Valentin.

The Guru leans towards Torrez Finney in his UFC debut, citing his wrestling, power, and experience from multiple Contender Series appearances. He worries about Robert Valentin's finishing potential but thinks Finney's head shape makes him hard to KO and that Valentin gives up dominant positions on the ground. He expects a decision win for Finney.

Zane picks Finney, calling Valentin a 'no-hoper' with fundamentally broken takedown defense and poor grappling off his back. He notes Finney is a focused takedown machine who will easily take Valentin down and control him. Zane acknowledges Finney's limitations as a 5'8" middleweight but sees this as a perfect matchup for him to showcase his wrestling.

Angelo acknowledges Ode' Osbourne is better than his recent record and nearly won his last fight, but he thinks Osbourne may be dejected after three losses and that his grappling gaps remain. He picks Luis Gurule due to his pressure, power, and grappling, but warns that undefeated UFC debuts often lose and advises against betting. He calls it a trap fight where Osbourne could win out of nowhere.

Big Brady picks Luis Gurule despite not being impressed with him. He notes Ode' Osbourne has durability and cardio issues, often fading after the first round. He expects Gurule's solid cardio and durability to take over as the fight progresses, leading to a decision win.

Gurule is making his UFC debut with a 10-0 record and is expected to put on a pace and pressure that Osbourne cannot keep up with, leading to a third-round stoppage.

The Guru picks Luis Gurule, noting his undefeated record and grindy style. He criticizes Ode' Osbourne for losing to Ronaldo Rodriguez and having multiple submission losses. He expects a close decision but thinks the prospect will get the nod over Osbourne, who he considers not good enough.

Angelo notes that Rhys McKee has a chin and can be boring, which is an asset against a dangerous striker like Frunza, but he believes Vegas judges prioritize damage over control time. He thinks Frunza's pressure and power will earn him a decision if it goes the distance, as McKee won't do enough damage. Angelo leans Frunza but acknowledges McKee is a live dog and won't bet on a UFC debutant.

Big Brady picks Daniel Frunza but expresses low interest in betting. He notes Rhys McKee is extremely hitable with poor striking defense, while Frunza has good cardio and will land consistently. He expects Frunza to win by decision, as McKee is tough enough to survive.

McKee's minute-winning abilities are favored as he can touch up Frunza from distance and avoid major shots coming back. He is expected to win by decision.

The Guru picks Rhys McKee as an underdog, noting his decent scrambles and takedown defense at 170. He believes McKee can weather an early grappling storm and win on the feet as the fight goes on. He mentions McKee's split decision loss to Chidina Juani and his improved grappling, and thinks Frunza's finishing ability won't be enough to put McKee away early.

Angelo is very confident that Dione Barbosa will dominate Diana Belbiţă. He highlights Dione's Judo background and grappling, while noting Diana has zero power, low fight IQ, and has been vocal about not caring about her career. He believes Diana is just showing up for a paycheck and will get bullied in all exchanges. Angelo calls it a 'mly whopping' and says Dione runs through her.

Big Brady is very confident in Dione Barbosa, citing her judo and BJJ black belts against Diana Belbiţă, who has been submitted five times. He believes Barbosa will take the fight to the ground and submit Belbiţă, likely via rear-naked choke or armbar in the first round.

Barbosa's BJJ prowess and Belbiţă's poor takedown defense will lead to Barbosa finding a submission. The pick is a lean based on grappling advantage.

The Guru picks Dione Barbosa based on physicality, strength, and power, contrasting her muscular build with Diana Belbiţă's lack of snap or pop. He believes Belbiţă cannot impose damage on anyone and that Barbosa will be too strong and powerful, likely getting takedowns and finishing inside the distance.

Angelo initially wanted to pick Pedro Falcão due to Victor's age and sloppiness, but after tape study he notes Victor still has juice left and got takedowns in his last fight. He sees Victor as an established UFC guy who doesn't suck at anything, while Pedro has gaps and hasn't proven himself at this level. Angelo picks Victor but acknowledges Pedro could be a decent underdog.

Big Brady likes Victor Henry despite the line moving against him. He believes Henry has underrated BJJ, good takedown defense, and a significant striking advantage. He expects Henry to stuff most of Falcão's takedowns and win via late knockout, specifically a third-round KO.

Henry is loved in this spot as he can shut down Falcão's BJJ black belt and put on a pace and pressure that Falcão is uncomfortable with in the striking realm. Henry is expected to win on the scorecards.

The Guru picks Victor Henry, citing his sprawl-and-pitter-patter style and ability to keep the fight standing. He notes Pedro Falcão spammed takedowns against Victor Hugo and failed most, and Henry is good at stuffing takedowns and out-voluming opponents. He expects a decision win, likely 29-28, with Henry winning the second and third rounds due to superior cardio.

Angelo argues that Vanessa is the more complete fighter with solid striking, footwork, and decent grappling, while Talita Alencar is an accomplished grappler but ineffective on the feet, small, and powerless. He notes that Talita's takedowns are not great and she relies on strength, and that even if she gets it to the ground, she hasn't shown the killer instinct expected. Angelo believes Vanessa can win via striking and takedown defense, and he dismisses any bias from his past interaction with Vanessa.

Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos despite acknowledging she has questionable wins and poor takedown defense. He believes Talita Alencar's cardio is a major issue, as she slowed down significantly in her Contender Series fight. He expects Demopoulos to survive early grappling and take over in later rounds, finishing a gassed Alencar via ground and pound.

Alencar's BJJ wizardry will come into play, allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find a submission. The fight could be close but Alencar's grappling advantage is expected to secure the win.

The Guru picks Vanessa Demopoulos based on her physicality, scrappiness, and experience. He dismisses Talita Alencar as not UFC-caliber, noting her claim to fame was against someone who got fraud-checked. He admits there's no technical aspect to analyze, just that Demopoulos is larger and more physical.

Angelo highlights Loma's evolution from a pure striker to a mixed martial artist with improved takedowns and effective grappling. He notes that Loma has out-wrestled opponents like Sam Hughes and has nasty striking and great speed. He believes Loma will out-grapple and out-strike Istela Nunes, who is on a four-fight losing streak and has poor grappling. Angelo calls Loma 'as close to a short thing as you're going to get' in women's MMA.

Big Brady is confident in Loma Lookboonmee, citing Istela Nunes's long layoff, four-fight losing streak, and questionable ground game. He notes Nunes has solid striking early but fades, and her takedown defense is poor. He expects Lookboonmee to mix in takedowns and eventually submit Nunes in the second or third round.

Lookboonmee is coming off a long layoff but her Muay Thai style should wear down Nunes' gas tank issues. She is expected to finish the fight in the second or third round. The pick is based on stylistic advantage and Nunes' known cardio problems.

The Guru is high on Loma Lookboonmee, praising her technique on the feet and Muay Thai skills. He believes she has improved her takedown defense during her hiatus and will dominate Istela Nunes in the clinch and at range. He dismisses Nunes as having a poor record and lacking the skills to compete.