Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability. He notes Sabatini took down Chepe Mariscal seven times and expects similar against Gomis. He says Gomis can be taken down and lacks one-punch knockout power, so Sabatini faces no risk of being KO'd. He loves the minus 133 odds and thinks it's a dominant win.

Angelo is confident in Pat Sabatini, noting his incredible grappling and control. He believes Sabatini will take down William Gomez repeatedly and that Gomez's slow technical style won't be enough to stop the takedowns. He mentions that Sabatini has looked incredible lately and that the odds are good value.

Big Brady is confident Pat Sabatini wins, citing his elite wrestling and control. He notes Gomis lacks power and has been taken down and put in bad spots before. Brady expects Sabatini to get takedowns and secure a submission, specifically a second-round submission, as Gomis has shown vulnerability to submissions.

Cody picks Sabatini, citing his wrestling and submission skills. He notes Gomis's takedown defense issues and thinks Sabatini can control him on the ground. Cody expects Sabatini to win by submission or decision.

Connor picks Sabatini, believing his wrestling is good enough to get takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Sabatini is a better wrestler than others who have had success against Gomis. Connor expects a razor-thin decision, possibly a split, but thinks Sabatini's dedication to his game plan will earn him the nod.

Daniel picks Sabatini, reasoning that Gomis is a point fighter who doesn't dish out much damage, so Sabatini will take him down and control him on the ground. He believes Sabatini's grappling will be the difference.

Sabatini has home advantage and a relentless grappling style that will smother Gomis. Gomis is a volume striker who needs distance, but Sabatini will either be far outside or in the clinch/takedown range. Gomis has poor takedown defense and takes a long time to get back up; he's been in many split decisions. Sabatini's cardio allows him to grapple for three rounds. Unless Gomis has significantly improved his takedown defense, Sabatini should control the fight.

Predicted method: Submission Round 2. Sabatini's grappling-heavy style (4.48 takedowns per round, 1.5 submission average) is a clear path to victory against Gomis, who has only 72% takedown defense and has been taken down multiple times. Gomis has a reach advantage (73" vs 70") and solid striking, but Sabatini's pressure and top control will neutralize that. Sabatini has won three straight and is a proven finisher on the ground. Expect Sabatini to secure takedowns and win by submission or decision.

Jacob agrees with Angelo, stating that Gomez will either land a knee or headkick on an entry or get taken down and controlled. He praises Sabatini's wrestling and control, noting that Gomez is comfortable fighting off his back foot but that Sabatini's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He thinks the price is about right.

Lucrative James picks Pat Sabatini because he believes Sabatini's grappling will be too much for William Gomis, who is a pure striker without power or strong takedown defense. He notes that Gomis prefers to stay on the outside, which plays into Sabatini's game of closing distance and taking the fight to the ground. He predicts Sabatini wins by submission in round two.

The host picks Sabatini, emphasizing his dominant grappling and ability to control opponents on the ground. He notes that Sabatini's striking is a liability but believes his wrestling will be too much for Gomis, who has shown defensive grappling improvements but may struggle to keep the fight standing. He expects Sabatini to win by decision, possibly at a better price if the line moves.

Paul picks Sabatini, citing his grappling advantage and Gomis's vulnerability. He thinks Sabatini will get takedowns and control the fight. Paul expects Sabatini to win by decision.

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini, praising his elite grappling. He notes Sabatini dominated Shep Mariscal and Joe Anderson Britto, while Gomis had close fights with Britto and others. He worries about Sabatini's chin on the feet but believes his takedowns and top control will secure a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 30-26.

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, praising his pressure, wrestling, and scrambling ability. He believes Chepe is the better striker and wrestler, and that Pat Sabatini's striking is stiff and he is chinny. Angelo is confident and placed a bet at -113, expecting the line to expand.

Big Brady picks Chepe Mariscal as a slight underdog, acknowledging a clear path for Sabatini via wrestling but favoring Mariscal's striking power. He notes Sabatini's questionable chin, having been knocked out by Damon Jackson and Diego Lopez, and believes Mariscal can exploit that. Brady sees Mariscal's judo as helpful in getting back to his feet and predicts a second-round knockout.

Cody picks Sabatini, noting that his grappling is elite and that Mariscal has been taken down by everyone. He believes Sabatini has learned from his knockout losses and will stick to wrestling. Cody thinks Sabatini can grind out a decision or possibly submit Mariscal. He is not fully confident but sees the path.

Connor also picks Mariscal, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Mariscal is one of the most fluidly offensively minded fighters and that Sabatini needs to dominate and stop the fight from happening, which he can't do against Mariscal. He thinks Mariscal's style is a nightmare for Sabatini.

Daniel sees this as a close fight and picks the underdog Mariscal to win again. He notes that Sabatini's chin is suspect and Mariscal's judo and wild style could keep the fight standing, where Sabatini is vulnerable. He expects a back-and-forth scrap that could end in a knockout for Mariscal.

Lucrative James picks Pat Sabatini to win, believing his elite grappling and top control will be too much for Mariscal. He notes Sabatini's improved control since their first fight and Mariscal's tendency to be taken down. He expects Sabatini to secure takedowns and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision.

Mariscal makes it look more dominant than their first fight. He scrambles and stays ahead of Sabatini, then overwhelms him on the feet leading to a TKO victory.

Paul leans towards Mariscal, noting that he is a better striker and has knockout power. He points out that Sabatini has been knocked out when he tries to strike. Paul thinks Mariscal could win by knockout if he keeps the fight standing. However, he acknowledges the risk of Sabatini's grappling and is not fully committed.

The Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, highlighting his pressure, volume, chin, and scrambling ability. He believes Mariscal's stocky frame will make him hard to hold down for Sabatini, who relies on control. The Guru also notes that judging trends may favor Mariscal if the fight is close. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Mariscal.

Angelo acknowledges this fight has trap written all over it. He notes Joanderson Brito has power and Pat Sabatini is chinny, but also that Brito's BJJ off his back is poor while Sabatini is phenomenal on top. He predicts the fight won't go the distance, with Brito likely knocking out Sabatini or Sabatini submitting Brito. He picks Brito due to cardio improvements and power, but warns Sabatini could sneak a win as a dog.

Big Brady picks Joanderson Brito, citing Pat Sabatini's questionable chin and Brito's power. He believes Sabatini needs a perfect 15-minute grappling performance to win, but Brito will eventually land a big shot and knock him out, likely in the first round.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Brito. He highlights Brito's dangerous athleticism and Sabatini's stiffness on the feet. Connor notes that Brito's chaotic style often leads to finishes, and while Sabatini could win by grinding him down, Brito's ability to create scrambles and his durability make him the pick. He also mentions Brito's tendency to put himself in bad positions but believes Sabatini is too breakable.

Sabatini could have success with his chain wrestling and BJJ, but Brito's striking and power are favored. Brito is expected to land big power shots that Sabatini cannot handle, leading to a knockout in the first or second round.

The Guru picks Joanderson Brito, calling him too powerful, fast, and dangerous on the feet. He notes Brito's win over Diego Lopez and believes he will stuff Sabatini's takedowns and land strikes for a TKO. He expects a first-round finish, possibly within two minutes, and considers the matchup a mismatch.

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, citing his relentless wrestling pressure and awareness of Sabatini's jiu-jitsu. He notes that Sabatini hasn't improved his skills since entering the UFC and that Pearce's non-stop takedown attempts will be key. Angelo also thinks Pearce can have success on the feet, as Sabatini's striking is technical but lacks head movement. He mentions he placed a half-unit bet on Pearce at -131.

Big Brady picks Jonathan Pearce to win by TKO in the second round. He considers this one of his favorite fights on the card, noting both have paths: Sabatini via submission (Pearce has been submitted three times), but Pearce via knockout (Sabatini has been knocked out by Diego Lopes, Damon Jackson, and dropped by Jamall Emmers). He worries about Sabatini's durability and cardio, and believes Pearce's pace will break him down. Despite Pearce potentially getting into bad spots, Brady trusts his ability to fight out of them.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Pearce's striking is all fencing and he cannot keep opponents down. He points out that Pearce lost to David Onama despite having control time, and that Sabatini is a better grappler who can win if he gets top position. Connor is surprised Sabatini is the underdog.

Daniel thinks Pearce is more well-rounded and has better volume on the feet, but he acknowledges Sabatini's grinding wrestling and durability. He is not confident because Sabatini could easily grind out a win. Daniel leans toward Pearce to outwork him but admits he wouldn't be surprised by a Sabatini decision.

Pearce is on a two-fight losing streak but looked good in his last fight against David Onama even in defeat. He should use defensive grappling to keep the fight standing and put a pace on Sabatini, who is uncomfortable in the striking realm. Pearce will keep it upright, push the pace, and finish Sabatini in the second or third round.

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini, highlighting his technical grappling edge over Jonathan Pearce. He notes that Pearce is tough with good cardio but makes mistakes in grappling, often losing position. Sabatini has good submissions and control, and the Guru believes he can submit Pearce. He acknowledges Pearce could TKO Sabatini due to a suspect chin, but favors Sabatini's grappling.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

Angelo picks Sabatini, believing his takedowns and BJJ will neutralize Lopes. He criticizes Lopes' takedown defense and striking, and thinks Sabatini will control the fight on the ground. He plans to bet on Sabatini later in the week.

Big Brady picks Diego Lopes as the underdog, predicting a second or third round submission. He likes Lopes' evolving striking, power, and dangerous submission game off his back. He worries about Sabatini's durability on the feet, noting he has been dropped early in fights. Brady thinks Lopes has more ways to win and that Sabatini will have to fight off submissions for 15 minutes.

Cody picks Sabatini, expecting him to get takedowns and control the fight on top. He notes Sabatini's suffocating top game and ability to avoid submissions. He thinks Lopes' guard is dangerous but Sabatini's grappling is good enough to avoid trouble, and he sees value at even money.

James leans Diego Lopes because he believes Lopes has a clear advantage on the feet with more power and a better chin, while Sabatini's wrestling may not be sufficient to consistently control Lopes. He notes that Sabatini has been submitted before and is chinny, and Lopes has submission upside. However, he acknowledges Sabatini could have control time on top, making it a tricky matchup.

Sabatini is the better wrestler and will dictate where the fight takes place. He is a good enough BJJ artist to fend off Lopes' submission attempts. Sabatini will control positions and grind out a decision win. The line at -120 is a good value. Notes that recency bias from Lopes' highlight finishes is inflating his line.

Paul picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and top control. He notes Lopes has been taken down easily in the past and relies on submissions from guard. He thinks Sabatini's suffocating style will neutralize Lopes' offense and lead to a decision win.

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini because he has a huge grappling advantage. He notes that Sabatini's chin is a concern after recent knockouts, but he has been recovering. Lucas Almeida has dangerous hands and good scramble skills, but Sabatini's takedowns and top control should be the difference. Angelo also considers a prop bet on Almeida inside the distance/decision no action.

Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by first-round knockout. He likes both fighters but sees Almeida as a live dog due to his power and volume. Brady questions Sabatini's durability, noting he was hurt by Jamall Emmers and Damon Jackson. Almeida has a 100% finish rate and hits very hard, as seen in his fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Brady thinks Sabatini needs to wrestle early and often, but Almeida's takedown defense looks solid and he is physically strong. If Almeida can keep the fight standing for even a few minutes, he likely gets the knockout.

Cody is hesitant on Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida has crushing power and improved cardio, and that Sabatini's chin is questionable. He notes that Sabatini's wrestling is good but not elite, and that he tends to stall rather than finish. Cody thinks Sabatini will likely get takedowns and control the fight, but it will be a butt-clencher because Almeida can shut the lights off at any time. He doesn't love the -200 price.

Connor also picks Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida could KO him but trusting Sabatini's grappling. He notes that Sabatini is awkward on the feet but has shown the ability to recover and submit opponents after being hurt. Connor is less confident than he would like but sees Sabatini as the safer pick.

Daniel Levi leans toward Lucas Almeida, believing if the fight stays standing, Almeida will knock Sabatini out. He notes Sabatini's low volume and chin issues, citing knockouts by Damon Jackson and Jamall Emmers. However, he expresses hesitation because Sabatini's wrestling could neutralize Almeida, leading to a frustrating loss. He considers it a coin flip but prefers the dog.

Sabatini is the best grappler Almeida has faced. He should get takedowns and rack up control time, possibly even a submission. However, there is concern about how Sabatini rebounds from his knockout loss to Damon Jackson. Almeida has power but has shown grappling deficiencies. Sabatini wins by decision.

Paul is not laying -200 on Sabatini, calling him one-dimensional. He notes that Sabatini's takedowns are not always effective and that Almeida has power and durability. Paul thinks Almeida could be in big trouble if the fight stays on the feet, and he likes the plus money on Almeida. He also mentions a prop on Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700.

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Pat Sabatini, arguing Sabatini doesn't do much with takedowns and has been stuffed before. He notes Almeida's durability and finishing ability, referencing his comeback win over Mike Trizano. He believes Almeida can survive bad positions on the ground and land a big shot on the feet.

Angelo picks Sabatini, citing his superior wrestling and pure grappling. He notes that Sabatini has technical striking and controls range well, but his main path is through takedowns and top control. Angelo worries about Jackson's pressure but believes Sabatini's grappling will prevail. He is surprised the line has tightened.

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win inside the distance, but acknowledges it's a tough fight to call. He notes that both fighters are similar—BJJ black belts with wrestling backgrounds and mediocre striking. Brady gives the edge to Sabatini due to his youth, power on the feet, and training at Renzo Gracie Philly (which has a 15-0 or 16-0 UFC record). He also points out that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses (three by KO). Brady predicts Sabatini will hurt Jackson on the feet and then submit him.

Cody thinks Jackson's BJJ black belt and striking advantage will trouble Sabatini, who is one-dimensional. He notes Sabatini struggles when takedowns are stuffed and Jackson can make it ugly on the feet. Cody calls it a potential apple pie (underdog pick).

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, trusting his wrestling and submission game to win rounds. He views Sabatini as a reliable round-winner despite low output, while Jackson can be slowed down and give up positions. He thinks Sabatini is more likely to seal rounds with late takedowns. He does not bet due to the price.

Jacob is a big fan of Sabatini, calling him 'my dude' and noting his 4-0 lock of the week record. He praises Sabatini's control on the ground and his ability to keep opponents against the cage. Jacob worries about Sabatini's striking improvements but believes his grappling will dominate. He jumped on the -200 line and may double down.

Jackson is the best grappler Sabatini has faced; once it hits the mat, it's a 50-50 fight. Sabatini may be the better wrestler but Jackson has high-level Jiu-Jitsu and experience against tough competition. Jackson's ability to reverse and get back to his feet will be key. The line should be closer to a pick'em, so Jackson at plus money is worth a shot. I see Jackson winning a decision.

Paul leans Jackson, noting Sabatini's lack of striking and that Jackson can stuff takedowns. He admits he hasn't been a Jackson guy historically but sees a path. He's not very confident.

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, continuing to ride the Sabatini train. He praises Sabatini's outstanding grappling and decent striking, noting his ability to control range and set up takedowns. He acknowledges that T.J. Laramie is dangerous with power and submissions, but believes Sabatini's technical striking will avoid big shots. He thinks the odds are a bit wide but still picks Sabatini.

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win by first-round submission. He highlights Sabatini's relentless wrestling and BJJ black belt, predicting he will take Laramie down and submit him early. He acknowledges Laramie has better striking but believes the grappling gap is huge. He expects Sabatini to take Laramie's back and tap him out in the first round.

Cody picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and physicality. He notes Laramie's size disadvantage and thinks Sabatini will impose his grappling. He acknowledges Laramie's potential but believes Sabatini's game plan is clear.

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, citing his ability to overcome adversity (as seen against Jamal Emmons), his submission skills, and his pace-setting wrestling. He notes Laramie is too small for featherweight (listed 5'6" but likely 5'4") and has a 66-inch reach, making him undersized. Levi expects Laramie to be game but believes Sabatini's ceiling is higher and he should win, though the fight might be closer than the line suggests.

Paul picks Sabatini, noting his size and grappling advantage. He thinks Sabatini will take Laramie down and control him, despite Laramie's striking edge. He mentions he already bet Sabatini at -350 as part of a parlay.

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, calling him an absolute dog with incredible grappling. He notes Tucker Lutz's striking is overrated and he has defensive holes, getting hit more than he lands despite being on top. He expects Sabatini to win by submission or decision, but does not place a bet due to tricky odds. He likes Sabatini's DraftKings price at 8700.

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz as an underdog at +120. He believes Lutz has the striking and volume advantage and that his takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing. He notes that Pat Sabatini's striking is a liability and that Lutz can outpoint him for three rounds. He warns that if the fight goes to the mat, Sabatini is dangerous, but he trusts Lutz to fight smart and keep it on the feet.

Cody picks the underdog Tucker Lutz. He argues that Sabatini's grappling is excellent but his gas tank is questionable, as he gassed in the third round against Tristan Connolly. He notes that Sabatini's win over Jamal Emers was due to a mistake by Emers. Lutz is well-rounded with decent wrestling defense and technical boxing. Cody believes Lutz will sprawl and brawl, out-strike Sabatini, and win a close decision. He likes the plus money on a competitive fight.

Daniel Levi leans toward Tucker Lutz as the underdog, but admits it's a tough fight to pick. He respects both fighters' skills, calling it a chess match. He notes that Lutz has good volume and is improving each fight, while Sabatini is crafty with a high fight IQ. Levi expects Lutz to close the distance and land harder shots down the stretch, but is not confident.

Lock likes Lutz as the better striker with a high school wrestling background to defend takedowns. He thinks Lutz will keep the fight standing and pick Sabatini apart with combinations. He notes Sabatini's striking is flashy but not effective, and that Lutz has the tools to avoid Sabatini's submission game. Lock took Lutz at +110 and likes the decision prop.

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He says he will consider Lutz but is waiting for weigh-ins. He does not express a strong opinion either way.

Angelo picks Emmers, highlighting his superior striking and wrestling defense to keep the fight standing. He notes Emmers is the only one who hung with Giga Chikadze, and that Sabatini's takedowns may not be enough. He acknowledges Sabatini is a dog but believes Emmers' wrestling background gives him the edge.

Cody picks Sabatini as a dog, citing Emmers' poor ring IQ and tendency to lose close fights. He notes that Emmers doesn't pull the trigger on takedowns and has underachieved. Sabatini is well-rounded, has good cardio, and comes from a solid camp. Cody thinks Sabatini's volume and aggression could earn him a decision.

Jacob calls Sabatini the lock of the week, citing his championship mentality, relentless wrestling, and submission threat. He notes Emmers has already lost to a lock of the week (Chaz Skelly) and quit in the locker room. He believes Sabatini will finish the fight via submission.

Lock picks Emmers by decision at +135, believing Emmers' striking and cardio advantage will be decisive. He thinks Sabatini will grapple early but Emmers' defensive grappling and clinch work will nullify him. Lock expects Emmers to pull away in rounds 2 and 3, winning a decision. He likes the over 1.5 rounds as well.

Paul picks Sabatini, agreeing that Emmers has low ring IQ and that Sabatini is a solid underdog. He notes Sabatini's grappling and cardio, and thinks he can outwork Emmers. Paul says he'll tail Cody on this pick.

Big Brady picks Sabatini to win by dominant decision. He favors Sabatini in striking, wrestling, and grappling, noting Sabatini is a black belt in BJJ with a wrestling background. He dismisses Connelly's upset win over Pereira because Pereira gassed out. He expects Sabatini to control the fight for three rounds.

Cody picks Sabatini, noting his wrestling and grappling advantage. He mentions Connelly's long layoff and neck surgery, and that Sabatini is a tough debut. He thinks Sabatini's pressure and ground game will be decisive. He also notes that the line has moved significantly, indicating sharp money on Sabatini.

Daniel leans with Pat Sabatini, citing his better overall MMA game and youth. He discredits Tristan Connelly's win over Michel Pereira, attributing it to Pereira's antics. He is concerned about Connelly dropping two weight classes and a two-year layoff, but calls it a dog or pass situation and would not lay the current odds.

I think Sabatini is the better wrestler and grappler, and he's younger and hungrier. Connolly is coming off a long layoff and neck surgery, and he's dropping to 145 for the first time in years. Sabatini should grind him out over three rounds. I like the under 2.5 at +175 and Sabatini by submission at +340, but the safest play is Sabatini by decision.

Paul picks Sabatini, citing his wrestling, grappling, and youth. He notes Connelly's long layoff (two years), neck surgery, and drop to featherweight. He thinks Sabatini's pressure and ground game will be too much for Connelly, who may struggle with the weight cut. He acknowledges Connelly's cardio and heart but believes Sabatini is the better fighter.