UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
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Age 37
Height 5' 2"
Reach 59.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 1"
Reach 58.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Vanessa Demopoulos
3.37 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
5.39 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
0.32 TD Avg
9.0% TD Acc.
26.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Talita Alencar
2.91 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
3.36 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
3.02 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Vanessa Demopoulos
Moneyline
Caesars -105
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1000
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
FanDuel +140
Talita Alencar
Moneyline
FanDuel -104
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2600
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
FanDuel +145
Vanessa Demopoulos - Fight History
LOSS vs Jamey-Lyn Horth
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamey-Lyn Horth 0 101 of 167 60% 115 of 183 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:34
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 36 of 119 30% 44 of 131 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamey-Lyn Horth 0 35 of 57 61% 36 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 5 of 39 12% 7 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Jamey-Lyn Horth 0 33 of 60 55% 35 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 20 of 52 38% 23 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
3 Jamey-Lyn Horth 0 33 of 50 66% 44 of 63 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:35
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 11 of 28 39% 14 of 35 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamey-Lyn Horth 101 of 167 60% 64 of 123 24 of 31 13 of 13 90 of 153 8 of 11 3 of 3
Vanessa Demopoulos 36 of 119 30% 15 of 87 17 of 26 4 of 6 30 of 107 6 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamey-Lyn Horth 35 of 57 61% 22 of 43 8 of 9 5 of 5 33 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 5 of 39 12% 0 of 30 5 of 8 0 of 1 4 of 35 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jamey-Lyn Horth 33 of 60 55% 22 of 45 7 of 11 4 of 4 30 of 55 3 of 5 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 20 of 52 38% 7 of 33 9 of 14 4 of 5 15 of 45 5 of 7 0 of 0
3 Jamey-Lyn Horth 33 of 50 66% 20 of 35 9 of 11 4 of 4 27 of 43 3 of 4 3 of 3
Vanessa Demopoulos 11 of 28 39% 8 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Horth (-520), Demopoulos (+390)

Round 1
Atlanta! The capital of Georgia! The City in a Forest, The A, The Gate City, Hollywood of the South, ATL, Hotlanta, A City Among the Hills, Dogwood City…and many other names. The UFC has arrived to the city that holds over six million people in its metropolitan area, returning for the first time since Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier threw down for the second time all the way back in 2019. While no all-time banger is slated for this event’s lineup, with 13 bouts of varied significance, something is bound to bring the goods. UFC on ESPN 69 kicks off with a women’s flyweight contest pitting a Canadian in Horth (7-2, 2-2 UFC) struggling to find her way against a former strawweight in Demopoulos (11-7, 5-4 UFC) also trying to figure things out. Even with Horth sporting massive odds in her favor around -600, she is not even in top three heaviest betting favorites tonight. Here be squash matches. Referee Nate Mann takes the wheel for the first fight of the night, and the ladies touch gloves before his eyes to get started. Demopoulos, the shorter and smaller woman of the two by a wide margin, tries to get her offense going but is well out of range. Horth, meanwhile, easily slaps her opponent in the face with the first strike she throws: a front kick. Horth flicks out a low kick and avoids the return fire, with the former strawweight too distant. Horth goes to the well with another kick, and Demopoulos’s calf is already welting and reddening. Demopoulos lunges forward a few times, to no avail. Horth nearly wraps her head kick around the guard, forcing Demopoulos to mind her P’s and Q’s. Horth pitches a high kick to the other side, and the impact alone makes Demopoulos have to take a step back. Horth uses her long legs to do work, and she pins a body kick and follows it with a front kick to the midsection. Demopoulos’s responses rebound off the guard or come up short, so she engages in a clinch. The two jockey for position as soon as they find their way tied up, turning one another about, and Horth clocks Demopoulos with a right hand. Horth walks her foe down, landing with impunity, and turning the older woman’s face a brilliant shade of red. Horth picks away with jabs, stepping in with a kick to the body and giving Demopoulos all she can handle. Horth splits the guard with a one-two, and she again finds her target with a front kick. A trickle of blood appears on the side of Demopoulos’ nose, and Horth sees it and kicks at it. The front kick is one of the Canadian’s best weapons, freezing Demopoulos with one and then stinging her with a one-two. Demopoulos whiffs when trying to pay her back, and she looks for a takedown or something to get hold of her steamrolling opponent. Horth shucks it off and starts blasting the former dancer, allowing Demopoulos to try to get hold of her so she can toss Demopoulos to the mat. Horth lands in an awkward position as Demopoulos tries to reverse somersault, and the horn sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Horth

Round 2
The ladies touch ‘em up to get going in the second round, and Demopoulos tries to take advantage of the close proximity but ends up missing on a few punches. Horth steps back and pops her with a right hook. Demopoulos chambers and fires a single kick, only to get her jaw jacked with a hook combination. Horth pounds the midsection with a liver kick, and she chains a front kick and two right hooks behind it. When the Canadian attacks another kick, Demopoulos grabs her and tries to tie her up. Demopoulos’ cheek starts leaking crimson fluid, with Horth’s strikes having a visible effect while Demopoulos might not have connected with 10 significant strikes over six and a half minutes in. On the break, Horth drills her opponent with a left hand that spins Demopoulos all the way around. Demopoulos recovers and loops a right hand back at her, but her six-plus inch reach deficiency is her worst enemy. Horth watches Demopoulos soar past her with strikes, chipping at her with jabs and punishing her with a right hand when Demopoulos charges her. Demopoulos gets off first and shoots for a double-leg takedown, but the taller woman turns her about and drills her in the jaw with a knee. The size discrepancy is jarring, as Horth can reach her at will with kicks while even Demopoulos’ kicks do not always get there. An axe kick from Demopoulos is nowhere near the mark, but she gets aggravated and wings a right hand that surprises Horth. The Canadian has to shake it off, and she marches forward and drives a kick to the ribcage. Demopoulos is tough as nails, but Horth is connecting constantly and effectively. When they clinch, Horth breaks it out of thanks to a few knees. A home run right hand from Demopoulos misses by a mile, and she takes a punch to give one back but is seemingly out-powered as well. Horth chains a kick into two punches, and she ducks the right hook at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Horth

Round 3
Horth springs out of her corner behind her jab, allowing Demopoulos to come at her so she can do work. Demopoulos’ charges put her at risk to getting kicked in the stomach, and Horth does this twice—the second sends Demopoulos flying. Demopoulos stands up and nods that she got hit with a good one, and she tries to grab hold of Horth. The Canadian allows Demopoulos to sell out for a takedown so she can wind up on top, and she hops away and trips. Demopoulos gives chase, but Horth is upright before she gets grounded for real. The Factory X fighter sells out for a takedown, even giving up dominant position in hopes of taking the back, but Horth turns her about and reams her with an elbow. Horth sits comfortably in the full guard of her foe, listening to her corner’s instructions while pummeling “Lil Monster” with ground-and-pound. Any time Demopoulos tosses her legs up for a submission of some kind, Horth busts her in the chops. Horth elects to stand back up, and she sways back to partially dodge a one-two. Chants for “USA” in support of Demopoulos rain down, and she salutes the crowd and takes a knee square on the jaw when not paying attention. Horth potshots her from a safe distance, her body kick about as clutch at it can be. Demopoulos walks through a head kick to wind a big right hand, and her power strikes are one-and-done while Horth is much busier, accurate and stronger. Demopoulos sprints towards her foe for a level change, and she tries to pull guard but Horth walks away. Demopoulos comes out firing with a one-two when getting back to her feet, and she snaps Horth’s head to the side with a solid jab. The prodding jabs from Horth keep her safe from the worst of it, and Demopoulos tries to catch a body kick but ends up eating four punches instead. Horth’s body kick leads to a shot up top, and she springs away to avoid a looping punch. Demopoulos fakes a takedown to throw hands, and she even attempts an Imanari roll to get hold of the Canadian. They trade hands, with Horth landing the flusher of the two, until the final bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Horth (30-27 Horth)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Horth (30-27 Horth)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Horth (30-27 Horth)

The Official Result
Jamey-Lyn Horth def. Vanessa Demopoulos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jamey-Lyn Horth

Angelo picks Horth because of her size advantage and ability to defend takedowns against the cage. He believes her range, length, and striking will be too much for Demopoulos, who is stepping up on short notice.

If I'm wrong, and the odds are somehow close or plus money, I 100% will bet on Jamie here. ... the over two and a half.
"Jaime Lyn Horth is the pick. Pretty confident in that."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jamey-Lyn Horth

Big Brady picks Jamey-Lyn Horth due to her significant size and strength advantages, noting a 5-inch height and 6.5-7 inch reach advantage. He believes Horth will use her size to push Demopoulos against the cage and take her down, similar to how Allen Carr controlled Demopoulos. He acknowledges Demopoulos has been on the winning side of questionable decisions but expects Horth to win a boring decision. He is surprised Horth is a -475 favorite but agrees with the line.

"I think it's Jamian Horth and buy a boring I think it's going to be boring quite frank. I think she's going to push Vanessa Demopoulos against the cage for 15 minutes potentially take her down."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamey-Lyn Horth

Horth's size, physicality, and strength are expected to overwhelm Demopoulos, who is coming up a weight class on short notice. Horth will pin Demopoulos against the cage, drag her to the ground, and grind out a decision win.

"I'm expecting the size, physicality, and strength of Horth to thwart the short notice Demopoulos..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jamey-Lyn Horth

The Guru picks Jamey-Lyn Horth based on her physicality advantage, noting she is 5'7" to Demopoulos's 5'2" with more reach. He criticizes Demopoulos's lack of technical skill, saying she 'has no idea what she's doing' and spent 13 minutes on bottom in her last fight. He expects Horth to outgrapple Demopoulos and win a 30-27 decision.

"I'm going to go with Jaime Lyn Hoth here. She actually looks like she like there was a moment in her Veronica Hardy fight where I was looking at Veronica Hardy and I was thinking okay Veronica Hardy is the …"
LOSS vs Talita Alencar
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 10 of 34 29% 34 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Talita Alencar 0 45 of 75 60% 107 of 150 4 of 5 80% 1 0 12:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 4 of 7 57% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Talita Alencar 0 9 of 17 52% 19 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:25
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 6 of 20 30% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Talita Alencar 0 11 of 24 45% 40 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:43
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 0 of 7 0% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Talita Alencar 0 25 of 34 73% 48 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vanessa Demopoulos 10 of 34 29% 9 of 31 1 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 1
Talita Alencar 45 of 75 60% 39 of 67 4 of 4 2 of 4 13 of 39 1 of 1 31 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Talita Alencar 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 5
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 6 of 20 30% 5 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1
Talita Alencar 11 of 24 45% 7 of 18 3 of 3 1 of 3 8 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 3
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 of 7 0% 0 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Talita Alencar 25 of 34 73% 25 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 23 of 27
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Talita Alencar vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-112), Demopoulos (-108)

Round 1
This 11-week marathon of consecutive UFC cards soldiers on with the penultimate show on the stretch. We scoot back to the confines of the UFC Apex for better EBITDA margins, in a building that was supposed to starting renovations or construction soon. For now, it plays host to 12 fights ranging from 115 pounds to 266, but few matches on the lineup have any rankings relevance while there is likely to be ample pink slip fodder. The ladies in this curtain jerker might be safe if they lose this one, but with the promotion preparing for the summer season of Contender Series, few on the roster are safe. The two that kick this event off might be similar in age but they are a chasm apart in terms of experience. Demopoulos (11-6, 5-3 UFC) celebrates almost three times the appearances of Alencar (5-1-1, 1-1 UFC) despite the Brazilian just two years younger. Referee Chris Tognoni takes charge for the opening bout, and it kicks off without a glove touch. Demopoulos says hello with two punches across the forward bow, and she snaps out another such combo and reaches Alencar with one more left hand before the Brazilian can get to her. Alencar ties her foe up against the cage, and she drops down and wraps up a head lock to force “Lil Monster” to her knees. Alencar uses her left arm to pressure behind Demopoulos’s neck, and she is warned for grabbing the fence when imposing her weight on her opponent. Demopoulos uses her toes to try to pull her out of danger, which too is a foul. Alencar keeps to this position, content to control rather than actually committing to the unorthodox submission. Alencar releases the grip around the neck and pushes Demopoulos’ legs out of the way to establish a more traditional top position. Demopoulos uses her legs to threaten and otherwise keep Alencar honest, allowing Alencar to punch her in the face repeatedly. Demopoulos hunts for a sweep and only bails on it when absorbing a particularly effective elbow. Alencar keeps her full weight down, jumping from one side to the other and winding up in a sudden armbar. The Brazilian punches out of it from above, and she grabs the foot of Demopoulos for a possible foot or ankle lock. Alencar sits on Demopoulos’ face as she hangs on, staying heavy until the round wraps.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 2
Demopoulos starts the round as aggressive as the first, firing off two one-two salvos and a right hand before she is met by her opponent. Alencar gets up close and personal, changing levels for a possible takedown, but abandons it and lets her hands go to smack Demopoulos upside the head. Demopoulos comes up short on a winging overhand right, and she wades back to let Alencar do something similar. Alencar tosses out naked leg kicks to keep Demopoulos away, and she sits down on a clean right hand but does not budge Demopoulos one inch. The moment “Lil Monster” drives through a one-two, Alencar counters her momentum to hit a double-leg takedown and plop her on her back. Alencar lands in half guard, using her shoulder pressure to flatten out Demopoulos as soon as they get horizontal. Alencar is quick to engage her smothering best, stifling Demopoulos and getting warned for striking the spine when she does attack again. “Problem Child” gives Demopoulos another problem by stepping to the other side so she can set up an arm-triangle choke. Demopoulos bucks and kicks enough to gain the space she needs to not get choked out, and this only results in her getting struck with more ground-and-pound. Alencar finds a brief opening and hammers down four right hands, and she sits back on Demopoulos’ face in a relatively unusual position. Demopoulos sells out for a leglock in hopes of reversing the position, and Alencar gets out of it by repeatedly grabbing the fence. Tognoni slaps her hand several times, and Alencar still is able to yank on it to get her leg out of the sub. Rules mean nothing with no consequences, and multiple fence grabs keeping her out of a submission go generally uncalled other than a “knock it off” from Tognoni. Alencar rides out the position on top until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
Demopoulos marches out of her corner a woman possessed, and she lashes out with multiple one-twos down the pipe. Alencar rushes towards her as well, perhaps for a takedown, and she clashes heads before changing levels. Tognoni checks to make sure neither woman sustained damage, and on the restart, Alencar tackles Demopoulos to the mat and the collective air out of the Apex as well. Alencar hangs out in guard, unafraid of anything the Factory X fighter will do to her, and she pops Demopoulos with some short, scoring strikes. Demopoulos hunts for a triangle choke, armbar or even possibly a desperate leglock, and the Brazilian laughs them all off and steps the proper direction to avoid them completely while remaining in top. Alencar shifts to half guard from the opposite side as she wants to set up an armbar, and she drops down ground-and-pound when not isolating the neck. When the sub is not there, Alencar sits up into three-quarter mount, and she attacks with strikes from above. With nothing left to lose, Demopoulos explodes to sit up and even stand. Unfortunately for her, the “Problem Child” is a problem for her, as she executes a near-immediate mat return to sling Demopoulos to her back. Alencar lords over her, dropping down standing-to-ground punches while avoiding upkicks. Alencar picks up the pace with more punches than before, and she climbs into half guard and elbows until the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Alencar (30-26 Alencar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Vanessa Demopoulos via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Angelo argues that Vanessa is the more complete fighter with solid striking, footwork, and decent grappling, while Talita Alencar is an accomplished grappler but ineffective on the feet, small, and powerless. He notes that Talita's takedowns are not great and she relies on strength, and that even if she gets it to the ground, she hasn't shown the killer instinct expected. Angelo believes Vanessa can win via striking and takedown defense, and he dismisses any bias from his past interaction with Vanessa.

"This should be a Vanessa pick all day long she's the more complete fighter of the two to has proven to be pretty useless on the feet she's small she's ineffective she is powerless and even if she gets it …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos despite acknowledging she has questionable wins and poor takedown defense. He believes Talita Alencar's cardio is a major issue, as she slowed down significantly in her Contender Series fight. He expects Demopoulos to survive early grappling and take over in later rounds, finishing a gassed Alencar via ground and pound.

third round ground and pound TKO
"I'm going Vanessa deop here I'm going to take her to win by by third round ground and pound TKO"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Talita Alencar

Alencar's BJJ wizardry will come into play, allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find a submission. The fight could be close but Alencar's grappling advantage is expected to secure the win.

submission
"I think the BJJ Wizardry of Alan car will come into play allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find the submission to get demopoulos out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

The Guru picks Vanessa Demopoulos based on her physicality, scrappiness, and experience. He dismisses Talita Alencar as not UFC-caliber, noting her claim to fame was against someone who got fraud-checked. He admits there's no technical aspect to analyze, just that Demopoulos is larger and more physical.

"Vanessa Demopulus is probably going to win 2928. She's more physical. She's scrappy. She's got experience. She's larger."
Submission (armbar) R1 3:28 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jaqueline Amorim 0 2 of 3 66% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:05
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 2 of 6 33% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jaqueline Amorim 0 2 of 3 66% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:05
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 2 of 6 33% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jaqueline Amorim 2 of 3 66% 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Vanessa Demopoulos 2 of 6 33% 0 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jaqueline Amorim 2 of 3 66% 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Vanessa Demopoulos 2 of 6 33% 0 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amorim (-310), Demopoulos (+250)

Round 1
Strawweight grapplers come to blows in a battle between ladies that like to bully their opponents. Amorim (8-1, 2-1 UFC) has yet to go the distance when notching a win, while Demopoulos (11-5, 5-2 UFC) could comfortably describe the sound of the final bell. The pairing that could see some exciting exchanges on the mat will be officiated by referee Jacob Montalvo, and it kicks off as Amorim claims the middle of the cage and no interest in a glove touch. The Brazilian lets loose with a high kick, and Demopoulos pushes her back with a front kick but has that leg caught. Amorim uses the caught kick to take Demopoulos off-balance, and she throws “Lil Monster” to her back. Demopoulos tries for inverted triangle chokes while Amorim is on top in side control and briefly north-south position. Amorim shifts back to the side, and she pushes to three-quarter mount. Amorim gets dragged back to half guard, and she allows Demopoulos to explode so she can take her back and get a hook in. Demopoulos crouches down low in hopes of standing up, while Amorim is draped over her shoulders before tugging her to the floor. Amorim looks to set up an armbar but elects to get the body triangle. Demopoulos times a moment to escape, and she shouts loudly that the Brazilian has repeatedly grabbed inside of her gloves. As Demopoulos rolls to her knees, Amorim follows her through to lock down the armbar. Demopoulos keeps shouting to protest the fouls, and in doing so, she does not properly defend the submission. Amorim rolls to her back to complete the submission, and Demopoulos has no choice but to tap out. The second Montalvo intervenes, Demopoulos screams at him that the Brazilian was not grabbing her wrist but inside of her gloves to gain advantageous position. She implores Montalvo to check the replay, and he appears to go to the replay officials to check into it. For now, the official decision stands, with Amorim notching one more armbar and keeping her finish rate at 100%.

The Official Result
Jaqueline Amorim def. Vanessa Demopoulos R1 3:28 via Submission (Armbar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Angelo picks Jaqueline Amorim because she is a multiple-time world champion in both gi and no-gi grappling, has one-punch knockout power, and is extremely dangerous on the ground. He believes Vanessa Demopoulos, despite her cardio and forward pressure, will struggle with Amorim's grappling and power. He thinks Amorim can win by submission or knockout, and notes that the under 2.5 rounds is plus money.

Angelo mentions he will look at Jaqueline Amorim inside the distance (decision no action) as a potential bet, and notes the under 2.5 rounds is plus 180.
"I think Jaclyn wins this fight I am going to pick her to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Big Brady picks Jaqueline Amorim to win by first-round submission. He is confident Amorim wins but warns about corrupt judges favoring Demopoulos and Amorim's cardio issues. Brady believes Amorim is the better grappler and will get takedowns, possibly submitting Demopoulos. He picks submission to avoid judges' interference.

submission in round 1
"I'll take Amar to win this fight by submission in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Cody picks Demopoulos, arguing that Amorim's only path is takedowns and top control, but Demopoulos has good BJJ and cardio. He notes Demopoulos' toughness and ability to win close decisions. He sees value at plus money.

"Vanessa deop automatic spam win ha haa"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Daniel thinks Amorim's takedowns and top control will be the key. He notes Demopoulos's poor takedown defense (30%) and believes Amorim can grind out a decision. He doesn't expect a submission because Demopoulos is tough and a black belt. He acknowledges the 'first-round-or-bust' narrative but thinks Amorim can win two rounds with grappling.

"I'm actually picking amarim for that reason... I think she grinds out two of the three rounds and wins a decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Amorim is the best BJJ opponent Demopoulos has faced, but Demopoulos has never been finished and has shown improved striking. Amorim's wrestling is weak, often pulling guard. If Demopoulos can keep it standing, she has a chance. The pick is Amorim by submission, but with low confidence; the fight is more of a pass or a play on the over 2.5 rounds.

Amorim by submission (low confidence); over 2.5 rounds
"I'll go with uh amarim by submission as my favorite uh prop here but with the lowest of confidence... it's very hard for me to get behind am here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Paul picks Demopoulos, citing her durability, cardio, and pressure. He notes Amorim's poor striking and wrestling, and that Demopoulos has never been finished. He believes Demopoulos can win by decision or even submission, and sees value at plus money.

"sign me up for deesa Demopolis"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

The MMA Guru picks Jaqueline Amorim despite sarcastically noting that Vanessa Demopoulos often gets favorable decisions. He praises Amorim's finishing ability, citing her armbar win over Cory McKenna and third-round finish of Monserrat Ruiz. He acknowledges Amorim's loss to Sam Hughes but attributes it to lack of strength to finish a rear-naked choke. He believes Amorim is improving on the feet and training at American Top Team gives her an edge.

"I'm going to go with jacn amorim though I think she's far better skill wise than Vanessa deopa... she's been building into the division"
WIN vs Emily Ducote
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 109 of 293 37% 126 of 311 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 143 of 214 66% 147 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 43 of 99 43% 43 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 30 of 54 55% 30 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 36 of 112 32% 37 of 113 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 60 of 83 72% 60 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 30 of 82 36% 46 of 99 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 53 of 77 68% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vanessa Demopoulos 109 of 293 37% 76 of 250 18 of 25 15 of 18 106 of 289 3 of 4 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 143 of 214 66% 86 of 150 22 of 26 35 of 38 140 of 211 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 43 of 99 43% 25 of 75 7 of 11 11 of 13 43 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 30 of 54 55% 15 of 37 5 of 5 10 of 12 30 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 36 of 112 32% 24 of 98 10 of 11 2 of 3 34 of 110 2 of 2 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 60 of 83 72% 37 of 58 10 of 12 13 of 13 60 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 30 of 82 36% 27 of 77 1 of 3 2 of 2 29 of 80 1 of 2 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 53 of 77 68% 34 of 55 7 of 9 12 of 13 50 of 74 0 of 0 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Angelo sees Emily Ducote as the better striker with legitimate power and good wrestling defense, while Vanessa Demopoulos relies on volume and footwork but lacks real power. He expects Ducote to win a close decision, likely 29-28, due to her superior striking accuracy and durability. He notes the over 2.5 rounds is a good bet and suggests Vanessa plus 3.5 on the scorecard as a solid bet.

over 2.5 rounds, Vanessa +3.5 on scorecard
"I think Vanessa has the cardio and the volume Edge but Emily should be the better Striker and likely wins a 2928"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Cody points out Demopoulos has been gifted decisions but is often outlanded and outgrappled. He notes Ducote is a well-rounded fighter with college wrestling, a BJJ black belt, and good striking. Demopoulos's takedown attempts are often unsuccessful, and she struggles with volume. Cody expects Ducote to outland her significantly and win a clear decision.

Ducote by decision
"Emily doody's the pick by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Demopoulos got a gift decision in her last fight and is not technical with her punches. Ducote has solid all-around skills, throws great leg kicks and clean combinations, and will use her wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing. Expects Ducote to outbox and outstrike Demopoulos on the feet and win on the scorecards.

"I expect Emily ducatti to win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Paul believes Ducote's wrestling background and superior striking will be too much for Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos has been on the wrong end of controversial decisions but is often outworked. Ducote should be able to keep the fight standing and outpoint Demopoulos, likely winning a decision.

"Seems pretty clear to me outside of like slipping on a banana peel that dakot probably wins this and likely by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Vanessa Demopoulos, citing Ducote's superior activity and output. He argues that Demopoulos arguably lost several of her UFC fights, including against Kanako Murata, and that her volume is much lower than Ducote's. He expects Ducote to win a unanimous decision, 30-27, due to her three times higher output.

"I'm going to go with Emily deot here she's actually a betting favorite here but the majority there's a lot of people on tapology that are actually picking uh Vanessa demopulos with which is just insane to me"
WIN vs Kanako Murata
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 31 of 65 47% 86 of 144 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:42
Kanako Murata 0 34 of 64 53% 70 of 116 5 of 6 83% 0 0 10:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 17 of 35 48% 27 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Kanako Murata 0 9 of 16 56% 17 of 27 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:44
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 9 of 23 39% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kanako Murata 0 9 of 19 47% 30 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:11
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 5 of 7 71% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:22
Kanako Murata 0 16 of 29 55% 23 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vanessa Demopoulos 31 of 65 47% 21 of 49 10 of 13 0 of 3 10 of 36 7 of 10 14 of 19
Kanako Murata 34 of 64 53% 27 of 55 4 of 5 3 of 4 10 of 23 1 of 1 23 of 40
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 17 of 35 48% 10 of 22 7 of 10 0 of 3 5 of 20 5 of 7 7 of 8
Kanako Murata 9 of 16 56% 3 of 8 3 of 4 3 of 4 7 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 9 of 23 39% 8 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 13 1 of 1 5 of 9
Kanako Murata 9 of 19 47% 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 12
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 5 of 7 71% 3 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 2
Kanako Murata 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Kanako Murata

Angelo picks Kanako Murata despite a two-year layoff, reasoning that she is young (30) and likely to be the same or better. He highlights her great wrestling, solid BJJ defense, and constant forward pressure with takedown threats. He believes the same version of Murata from a few years ago dominates Vanessa Demopoulos. He has a small parlay including Murata, though he admits it's risky.

Small parlay with Murata (other half not specified yet)
"I do have a small parlay with her I threw her and uh I'll tell you the other half when I get to that fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kanako Murata

Big Brady is confident in Kanako Murata, praising her wrestling and grappling as some of the best in the division. He notes that Vanessa Demopoulos has poor takedown defense and is content to fight off her back, which plays into Murata's strengths. He expects Murata to control the fight on the ground and eventually find a submission, predicting a second-round submission win.

second round submission for Kanako Murata
"I'm going to take kanak and Morada to win this fight I'll take her to win this fight by by second round uh submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Cody picks Demopoulos as a dog, citing Murata's long layoff, broken arm, and lack of a Plan B if wrestling fails. He believes Demopoulos's BJJ and forward pressure could cause problems, and that Murata may be hesitant. He sees value in the plus money.

Demopoulos by submission
"I'm almost forced into a Vanessa Demopolis... I am taking demopolistic"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kanako Murata

Daniel Levi picks Kanako Murata but is not confident at -360. He notes Murata's grinding top control and ability to neutralize opponents, but also acknowledges Vanessa Demopoulos's dangerous armbar from guard and her high effort. He sees Murata winning by decision but says it's a dog-or-pass situation and he wouldn't parlay it.

dog or pass situation; not parlaying
"I'll go with Morata by decision but I don't know"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Kanako Murata

Lucrative James is confident Murata wins easily, citing her youth, prime condition, and all-around tools. He thinks Demopoulos is old and relies on low-percentage submissions like an armbar from guard. He predicts Murata by decision, as both are tough enough to survive.

"I think Morata is going to win this fight kind easily to be honest"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Kanako Murata

Murata has been out for over two years, but she is a strong wrestler with top pressure. She should be able to close the distance, drag Demopoulos to the ground, and control her from top position. Demopoulos has shown holes in her striking and has been submitted before. However, the long layoff makes me hesitant on the chalky line. Expect Murata to win by decision.

"I'm going to take Morata here a little bit hesitant on her chalky money line at -300 or -350 considering the fact that she's been offered two plus years"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Paul picks Demopoulos, agreeing with Cody. He notes Murata's low striking volume and long layoff, and believes Demopoulos can win a volume striking fight or via submission. He likes the plus 275 price and considers a submission prop.

Demopoulos by submission
"Demopolis plus 275 like it because I could see her winning a volume based uh striking Affair"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kanako Murata

The MMA Guru picks Kanako Murata over Vanessa Demopoulos. He likes that Murata took time off after an injury and likely improved. He notes Murata's win over Emily Ducote on the regional scene and her confidence in fighting a veteran early in her career. He criticizes Demopoulos for being 'coddled' and having questionable decisions, and believes Murata is more consistent. He predicts a close competitive decision but mentions potential finish.

potentially by finish, but likely a close competitive decision
"I'm gonna have to go against Vanessa Demopolis here I don't mind kanako Morata in comparison"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 139 of 237 58% 148 of 249 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:52
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 68 of 221 30% 83 of 237 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 42 of 84 50% 42 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 28 of 71 39% 36 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 55 of 82 67% 56 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 22 of 86 25% 22 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 42 of 71 59% 50 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 18 of 64 28% 25 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 139 of 237 58% 94 of 187 30 of 33 15 of 17 134 of 230 5 of 7 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 68 of 221 30% 49 of 190 13 of 23 6 of 8 65 of 216 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 42 of 84 50% 33 of 73 7 of 8 2 of 3 37 of 77 5 of 7 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 28 of 71 39% 20 of 62 4 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 66 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 55 of 82 67% 30 of 55 16 of 17 9 of 10 55 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 22 of 86 25% 13 of 71 7 of 13 2 of 2 22 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 42 of 71 59% 31 of 59 7 of 8 4 of 4 42 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 18 of 64 28% 16 of 57 2 of 5 0 of 2 18 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Angelo picks Vanessa Demopoulos because he thinks Karolina is aging out and didn't look good in her last fight, needing grappling to get a sketchy decision. He believes Vanessa is a solid grappler herself, sets a nice pace, and can hang with the striking. He expects Vanessa to outwork Karolina and win by decision.

Bet on over 2.5 rounds (round line)
"I like Vanessa to win this fight she probably wins by decision but these are the fights right these are the fights where the veteran can sort of take advantage of the situation"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos as the underdog to submit Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the second round. He notes Demopoulos has improved her wrestling and has a dog mentality, while Kowalkiewicz is the better striker but has been inconsistent. He believes if Demopoulos can get takedowns, she can control and submit Kowalkiewicz. However, he admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the pick.

submission in round 2
"I'm going to take Demopolis as the dog here I'm gonna say she goes out there and gets Carolina down to the man and submits her in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody believes Kowalkiewicz's striking and takedown defense will be enough to outpoint Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos's grappling is a threat but Kowalkiewicz has faced high-level grapplers and should be able to keep the fight standing and win a decision.

"I too will take care of the cavage."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that she has shown signs of a renaissance in her last two fights, looking like she knows how her game works again. He highlights her surprisingly strong clinch and ground game, which could overwhelm Demopoulos. However, he acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz has been in dark places and her striking at range is not damaging, making this a hesitant pick.

"I'm riding with Kovalkavers. I think Demopolis is going to be one of those fighters that like I was just totally coming in..."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience and recent win. He believes Kowalkiewicz at her best is clearly ahead of Demopoulos, who is still developing. He acknowledges Demopoulos's grit and Jiu-Jitsu but thinks Kowalkiewicz's striking and veteran savvy will earn her a decision. He has a soft spot for Kowalkiewicz since she cashed a plus-215 underdog bet for him against Rose Namajunas.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I'm still gonna go with Carolina because I like the fact that she got back on track"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, believing her BJJ black belt and strength in clinch and wrestling positions will allow her to take the fight to the ground. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's improved grappling confidence may get her into trouble. He predicts a submission win for Demopoulos, though notes if it stays standing, Kowalkiewicz has the advantage.

submission
"give me the underdog here give me Vanessa Demopolis and I think she wins this fight by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul is surprised by the line and sees value on Kowalkiewicz. He notes her experience and recent wins, and thinks Demopoulos's grappling is not at a level to trouble her. He expects Kowalkiewicz to win a clear decision.

"Caroline is the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru sides with Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing she is more well-rounded and has better striking. He dismisses Vanessa Demopoulos as not very talented and suggests she has received gifted decisions due to promotability. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins over Silvana Gomez Juarez and her competitive losses to top fighters. He expects Kowalkiewicz to outbox Demopoulos and win a decision.

"I'm gonna go with Carolina ... I think she's gonna get this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Zane picks Demopoulos, believing she is a good athlete who is improving quickly and will keep showing up and surprising. He thinks Kowalkiewicz may get a round of dominant grappling but will have trouble controlling Demopoulos and putting a stamp on other rounds. Zane is not confident in Kowalkiewicz's current form and sees Demopoulos's athleticism and power as potential factors.

"I'm going to take Demopolis. I think she's just going to keep showing up and surprising."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vanessa Demopoulos 1 55 of 80 68% 121 of 154 2 of 4 50% 0 0 7:59
Maria Oliveira 0 83 of 154 53% 95 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 14 of 23 60% 31 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:39
Maria Oliveira 0 24 of 46 52% 28 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 1 27 of 36 75% 58 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:40
Maria Oliveira 0 24 of 43 55% 28 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 14 of 21 66% 32 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:40
Maria Oliveira 0 35 of 65 53% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vanessa Demopoulos 55 of 80 68% 44 of 68 5 of 5 6 of 7 18 of 39 3 of 3 34 of 38
Maria Oliveira 83 of 154 53% 55 of 124 20 of 21 8 of 9 80 of 151 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 14 of 23 60% 7 of 15 2 of 2 5 of 6 7 of 14 0 of 0 7 of 9
Maria Oliveira 24 of 46 52% 15 of 37 4 of 4 5 of 5 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 27 of 36 75% 23 of 32 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 14 3 of 3 17 of 19
Maria Oliveira 24 of 43 55% 15 of 32 7 of 8 2 of 3 22 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 10 of 10
Maria Oliveira 35 of 65 53% 25 of 55 9 of 9 1 of 1 34 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Jinh Yu Frey
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 66 of 139 47% 71 of 144 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:14
Jinh Yu Frey 0 62 of 133 46% 81 of 153 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 11 of 32 34% 11 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Jinh Yu Frey 0 17 of 45 37% 18 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 24 of 52 46% 25 of 53 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:31
Jinh Yu Frey 0 27 of 56 48% 30 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 31 of 55 56% 35 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:08
Jinh Yu Frey 0 18 of 32 56% 33 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vanessa Demopoulos 66 of 139 47% 34 of 100 25 of 31 7 of 8 40 of 107 26 of 32 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 62 of 133 46% 49 of 116 8 of 11 5 of 6 58 of 128 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 11 of 32 34% 6 of 24 3 of 5 2 of 3 9 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 17 of 45 37% 15 of 41 0 of 2 2 of 2 17 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 24 of 52 46% 14 of 41 7 of 8 3 of 3 17 of 44 7 of 8 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 27 of 56 48% 20 of 48 4 of 4 3 of 4 27 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 31 of 55 56% 14 of 35 15 of 18 2 of 2 14 of 33 17 of 22 0 of 0
Jinh Yu Frey 18 of 32 56% 14 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 0 14 of 28 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jinh Yu Frey

Angelo picks Jinh Yu Frey, expecting her to slow the pace with bully-style grappling and beat Vanessa Demopoulos similarly to how Lupita Godinez did in the LFA. He acknowledges Vanessa's dangerous ground game and that lesser opponents have submitted Frey before, but believes Frey's physicality and forward pressure will earn her a unanimous decision win.

"i love ginyu frey in this fight i think vanessa will be faster potentially have the better footwork but i expect gin to slow the pace down work in some of that bully-style grappling and just beat vanessa the exact …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jinh Yu Frey

Big Brady picks Jinh Yu Frey to win by decision. He notes that Frey has a striking advantage and excellent takedown defense (90%), while Demopoulos has no wrestling and poor takedown success. However, he criticizes the -275 price as too high for a low-volume striker like Frey, and warns that Demopoulos's activity could make the fight look close. He ultimately expects Frey to outstrike Demopoulos and keep the fight standing.

Frey by decision; odds too high at -275
"i favor her in this fight i'm going to pick her on this fight i'm going to pick her to win by decision but that price tag is just ridiculous"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jinh Yu Frey

Cody picks Frey, citing her better striking and takedown defense. He thinks she will win by decision, noting Demopoulos has never scored a takedown in the UFC. He warns against heavy investment at -260 but thinks Frey by decision is a solid play.

Frey by decision -110
"i'm just more inclined to go with ginyu frey by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Paul picks Demopoulos by submission at +800, noting her only path to victory is a submission. He thinks the value is too good to pass up, even though Frey is the better striker. He acknowledges it's a longshot but worth a small bet.

Demopoulos by submission +800
"demopolis by submission plus 800. that's just that's just the way i play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, citing that Jinh Yu Frey lost to Kay Hansen, which is a bad look. He notes Demopoulos is younger (7-4 record) and moving down to strawweight, while Frey is 37. He expects Demopoulos to win by decision, winning scrambles and controlling the fight.

underdog pick, decision win prediction
"i do believe she's going to pull this one off as the underdog against ginyu frey because ginyu frey lost a fight to kay hansen"
Talita Alencar - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Talita Alencar 0 60 of 195 30% 80 of 216 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:27
Julia Polastri 0 78 of 111 70% 87 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Talita Alencar 0 12 of 49 24% 16 of 53 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:00
Julia Polastri 0 21 of 26 80% 27 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Talita Alencar 0 20 of 65 30% 36 of 82 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:27
Julia Polastri 0 27 of 40 67% 30 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Talita Alencar 0 28 of 81 34% 28 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julia Polastri 0 30 of 45 66% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Talita Alencar 60 of 195 30% 34 of 151 19 of 35 7 of 9 54 of 188 1 of 1 5 of 6
Julia Polastri 78 of 111 70% 48 of 78 12 of 14 18 of 19 72 of 103 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Talita Alencar 12 of 49 24% 3 of 35 4 of 8 5 of 6 9 of 45 0 of 0 3 of 4
Julia Polastri 21 of 26 80% 8 of 11 5 of 6 8 of 9 17 of 20 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Talita Alencar 20 of 65 30% 14 of 56 6 of 9 0 of 0 17 of 62 1 of 1 2 of 2
Julia Polastri 27 of 40 67% 18 of 31 5 of 5 4 of 4 27 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Talita Alencar 28 of 81 34% 17 of 60 9 of 18 2 of 3 28 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julia Polastri 30 of 45 66% 22 of 36 2 of 3 6 of 6 28 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Talita Alencar vs. Julia Polastri
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Polastri (-225); Alencar (+190)

Round 1
This nondescript Apex card at the end of April has all the makings of Spring Cleaning, with seven of the 26 combatants tonight sporting UFC records below .500 and several more hovering very close to or right at that midpoint. The latter is the case for this card opener at 115 pounds, as while Alencar (7-1-1, 3-1 UFC) has only lost after four walks to the Octagon, countrywoman Polastri (14-5, 2-2 UFC) sees an even record with the promotion thus far. The two strawweights will tangle as referee Jason Herzog watches on, all smiles with one another as they do not even offer a glove touch.
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Polastri moves straight to the center of the cage and plays it cool, letting the jittery Alencar fly past her with a spinning back fist. Polastri easily swats away a few punches that fly her direction, hoisting a substantial reach advantage. Alencar reaches her with a single jab, and her follow-ups including a kick or two largely fall short. Polastri smacks her back with a low kick. Polastri catches a kick and lets fly a loud response to the midsection. Alencar tries to pitch an off-angled head kick, and Polastri sways to dodge it and blocks one more orthodox kick coming at her. Alencar sits down on a body kick to seemingly target the raised arms of her foe, and she takes a step back when Polastri counters.
Polastri is able to time Alencar coming in and strike back, but she is not landing much on her own right. Alencar sinks in a thumping low kick and watches Polastri dance away from the action, frustrating her to the point of committing to a few power punches. Polastri is a ways away from the danger, picking her shots and probing with her jab. Polastri drives a kick to the body, safe from anything returning, and she nods at Alencar as Alencar bears down on her. “Problem Child” scores a solid right hand, ignoring the comeback to put her hands on the longer woman. Polastri escapes, and she pitches a body kick that is caught and allows Alencar to deposit her to the canvas. Polastri defends when she hits her back with effective upkicks, pushing her fellow Brazilian back away from her numerous times to not allow Alencar get on top. Polastri times an escape, and Alencar spears her to tackle her back down to the mat. Alencar looks to isolate Polastri’s left arm for a potential kimura, and she drops down a few punches as the round elapses.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 2
Polastri once more moves directly to the center of the cage as the round opens, and she starts out more actively with a few jabs. Alencar thinks about kicking her back, but she is beaten to the punch—foot, actually—when Polastri’s kicks fly faster. Polastri is quick to evade and dodge most of the attacks, with her guard up high to protect against the rest. Polastri jabs Alencar up and forces her to shoot in on her hips, and she laughs it off and is nowhere to be found. Polastri pays her foe back with snappy jabs and calf kicks on the inside and outside of the front leg. Polastri sneaks a kick up high, and she is two feet away from a front kick that Alencar fires back. Alencar commits to another hefty kick, and she hits nothing but air. Polastri scores a solid calf kick, with Alencar reaching down in hopes of catching it. She abandons that effort and strings a few punches together.
Polastri promptly drives her back with a head kick, and she slips punches and drills Alencar with an overhand right. Polastri’s hands are low as she keeps them by her side, offering up shovel uppercuts from her lead hand to mark up Alencar’s nose. Alencar cannot find her range, while Polastri lands any time she tries. “Psycho” goes to the body, and Alencar catches it and trips her up to take the fight horizontal. This time, the upkicks from Polastri do not keep Alencar at bay, as Alencar pounces to assume top position with about a minute to go. Polastri turns to her side, and Alencar elbows her twice in the back of the head as Herzog tells her to not do that. Alencar smothers down in the half guard, with Polastri hanging on tight to ride out the rest of the round. Alencar frames off the face with an elbow, grinding one down on the face and the other on the ribs. Polastri pushes her off with seconds to spare, using her upkicks to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
The countrywomen decide to touch gloves as the last round opens. Polastri’s strategy to assume the middle of the Octagon is ironclad as Alencar allows her to do so every time. Alencar looks for a spinning back fist as she tries to navigate longer jabs, with the jab from the taller, longer woman causing her plenty of issues. Alencar swings wide, and Polastri is practically in another county by the time the punch extends. She does get off a sneaky side kick to the stomach, and Polastri stomps her foot to feint and fake but ends up taking two more punches on the jaw. Alencar considers a level change, but Polastri shoves her back. Polastri fires off a head kick, and as it grazes off the forehead, Alencar flashes a grin from ear to ear.
Polastri makes Alencar adjust her nose when plunking her with a solid one-two, and Alencar feels that it is not broken and fakes a takedown shot. Polastri circles away to avoid any concern, prodding with her jab and walking through a one-two to throw back a kick. Alencar offers up a front kick and then one to the chest, but it is her left hand that gets through. Polastri is able to lean back at times as kicks zoom past her face, moving just enough to not get struck while still remaining in range to counter. She counters. Alencar tries to catch a kick, and Polastri belts her in the face with her fists to force her to drop it. Alencar spins with a big kick, but nothing doing. Her body kick, however, does score. Polastri draws a bit more blood on the beak with a solid punch, and Alencar hears the 10-second clapper and starts brawling. Polastri engages in a brief brawl before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri (29-28 Polastri)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (29-28 Alencar)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (29-28 Alencar)

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Julia Polastri via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Talita Alencar

Angelo picks Talita Alencar as the underdog, reasoning that the gap on the ground is very wide and if Alencar can get the fight to the ground, she wins. He acknowledges that Alencar's takedowns are not very good, but notes that Julia Polastri's takedown defense is also poor. He compares the two weaknesses to 'expired milk versus a baby diaper left out in the sun' and chooses the expired milk (Alencar). He mentions Alencar is live for a submission but could get beaten badly if she can't get it to the ground.

"I'm going with the dog. I'm gonna pick the dog. She's obviously live for a sub but if she doesn't get it to the ground she's gonna get the [__] beat out of her."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Big Brady picks Julia Polastri over Talita Alencar. He questions Alencar's competition, noting her wins came against fighters with poor takedown defense. He believes Polastri will be tougher to take down and has better cardio and clinch work. He predicts Polastri will break Alencar and finish her in the second or third round.

Polastri wins by third round knockout
"I like Polastri here and I think Polastri's going to break Alencar as the fight goes on. She's going to, you know, mix in those knees. She's going to pressure. And I think she's going to finish Alencar in the …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Julia Polastri

Connor picks Polastri as well, citing her ability to rally and finish fights. He notes that Alencar has a solid takedown game but gasses out, while Polastri gets stronger as the fight goes on. Connor also mentions that Polastri is only 28 and should be hitting her prime, making her a good pick.

Polastri opened at -200, now -240; Alencar opened at +170, now +205. Connor thinks the line is a bit wide but understandable.
"i think i'm gonna take pilasterie yeah me too i think it could be a real 50 50 fight alan yark goes out and gets all the takedowns early swamps her in the first round gets an early takedown in …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Talita Alencar

The host acknowledges this is a tricky fight due to extreme stylistic advantages: Polastri is a striker with terrible takedown defense and ground game, while Alencar is a grappler with no striking and bad cardio. He says the better bet is Alencar because of the risk-to-reward ratio, but he wouldn't personally bet either pre-fight. He prefers live betting and mentions betting Alencar +3.5 rounds.

Alencar +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision but odds too poor to bet; prefers live betting
"The better bet of the two is Alencar. It's clearly the dog or pass, but that's simply just letting the odds do the work for you."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

James picks Polastri, expecting her to survive early takedowns and come back with a third-round finish as Alencar gasses. He notes Polastri's history of late finishes and Alencar's cardio issues.

KO in round three
"I'm going to pick Pastry cuz I think she's going to get a third round finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Julia Polastri

Polastri is a Muay Thai specialist with good takedown defense and volume striking. She should be able to stick and move, avoid Alencar's grappling, and land significant damage. Alencar's wild striking and shaky gas tank will be exposed as Polastri picks her apart and eventually gets a TKO in the second or third round.

Polastri by round 3 TKO
"give me plaster and plaster by round three TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Julia Polastri

Zane picks Polastri because she is a natural fighter who comes on strong late in fights, while Alencar tends to fade if she can't get a finish. He notes that Polastri has good takedown defense once she gets going and is a vicious slugger. Zane also points out that Alencar's striking is power-based and she struggles when shut down early.

Polastri opened at -200, now -240; Alencar opened at +170, now +205. Zane is surprised the line is so wide.
"i think i'm gonna take pilasterie yeah me too i think it could be a real 50 50 fight alan yark goes out and gets all the takedowns early swamps her in the first round gets an early takedown in …"
Submission R3 4:36 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Talita Alencar 0 60 of 100 60% 79 of 122 5 of 8 62% 2 0 6:10
Ariane Carnelossi 0 25 of 76 32% 50 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Talita Alencar 0 18 of 30 60% 26 of 38 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:51
Ariane Carnelossi 0 1 of 17 5% 24 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Talita Alencar 0 20 of 39 51% 23 of 45 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:30
Ariane Carnelossi 0 10 of 35 28% 11 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
3 Talita Alencar 0 22 of 31 70% 30 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:49
Ariane Carnelossi 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Talita Alencar 60 of 100 60% 34 of 67 19 of 23 7 of 10 31 of 65 14 of 15 15 of 20
Ariane Carnelossi 25 of 76 32% 10 of 57 3 of 5 12 of 14 25 of 71 0 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Talita Alencar 18 of 30 60% 9 of 18 8 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 12 9 of 9 4 of 9
Ariane Carnelossi 1 of 17 5% 1 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 14 0 of 3 0 of 0
2 Talita Alencar 20 of 39 51% 10 of 25 7 of 9 3 of 5 14 of 32 5 of 6 1 of 1
Ariane Carnelossi 10 of 35 28% 2 of 24 2 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 33 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Talita Alencar 22 of 31 70% 15 of 24 4 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 21 0 of 0 10 of 10
Ariane Carnelossi 14 of 24 58% 7 of 16 1 of 1 6 of 7 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Talita Alencar vs. Ariane Carnelossi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-250); Carnelossi (+210)

Round 1
After a rousing series of fight cards around the world, the UFC recedes back to the Apex for half of its remaining shows this year. The first of two weekends in a row, the promotion’s headquarters—reportedly with new, revamped internal facilities even including concession stands (that are not open yet)—will play host to UFC Fight Night 263, also known as UFC Vegas 110. For the sixth time in the last eight events, women will kick off the violent festivities. Strawweights take center stage, where a loss will almost certainly save their place on the roster while a defeat does not guarantee another match in the Octagon. Alencar (6-1-1, 2-1 UFC) has reached the final bout of her initial four-fight deal, so this one will matter more than the others. She battles the returning Carnelossi (15-3, 3-2 UFC), who has only competed once in the last three years. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as they bump fists.
Carnelossi comes out of her corner loaded for bear, and she bashes Alencar in the face right off the bat. Alencar bounces back, rebounds off the fencing and pushes out with kicks. She rushes forward behind a right hand to set up a clinch with a body lock takedown attempt, and Carnelossi muscles her around to break it up. Carnelossi scores a short strike on the break, and then walks her retreating countrywoman down. “Sorriso” has her guard up in time to block the single kicks soaring her direction, although a one-two down the pipe gets her attention. Carnelossi goes for her own level change, ultimately hitting a 115-pound wall plus the cage behind her in Alencar. Carnelossi grinds on Alencar when a single-leg effort fails, and she smacks Alencar with short but frustrating overhand rights.
Carnelossi staves off a counter trip attempt, and the two jockey for position twirled around in the tie-up. Alencar puts Carnelossi’s back to the fencing, and she knees her in the stomach when bending over for something. Carnelossi turns her about once more and gives her a few knees to think about on the other side of the equation. This continues, and Alencar is warned for grabbing the fence to keep Carnelossi stuck and has her hand slapped away a few times. Alencar ducks down in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and she gets it for a second or two before Carnelossi pops back to her feet without issue. Carnelossi punches her way out of the clinch and meanders forwards Alencar, swinging her way until they end up clinching once more. Alencar trips Carnelossi to the floor, and Carnelossi uses her upkicks when hitting the mat to keep Alencar from climbing on top of her. Alencar drops to her knees, and Smith warns Carnelossi for what would be illegal upkicks. The horn sounds with Alencar striking from above.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 2
Like the previous round, Carnelossi plods directly forward to engage, no glove touch in the works. Carnelossi walks through a body kick to put her hands on her opponent, and a right hand opens a tiny cut on the bridge of Alencar’s nose. Alencar swings, and Carnelossi counters her more effectively. Alencar’s front kick is an effective weapon at keeping her foe at bay, but only for a brief time as Carnelossi tends to charge when struck with that blow. She does just that when drilled with a kick down the middle, racing after Alencar and slugging her in the face. Carnelossi ducks down and nearly takes a knee on the chin, and they proceed to bang it out up close and personally. Alencar spins with a back kick when in close proximity, and Carnelossi’s pressure is getting to her as she cannot get space to recover. Carnelossi connects with a hefty low kick that makes Alencar recoil it awkwardly, and she keeps kicking that spot.
Alencar winds up with a huge right hand while taking shots, and she grabs the back of Carnelossi’s head and drives a knee square into it. Alencar hurls Carnelossi to the floor, and she prevents Carnelossi from standing by snapping down on the back of her neck. Carnelossi still manages to force her way upright, and she remains comfortable in the clinch getting her head right after getting stunned. Carnelossi tries to drag the fight to the floor, and Alencar turns the tables and puts her down on the mat. When Carnelossi looks to get up, Alencar hangs on to a kimura that she uses to attempt to sweep. When not looking for that, she elbows Carnelossi in the side of the dome again and again. Carnelossi drops all the way down to pursue a desperate takedown, and Alencar accepts it as she has her legs laced around Carnelossi’s and looks to take her back. Alencar gets the hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke, fastening the short choke under the chin and pulling back. Carnelossi rolls to her side and then stomach, surviving the deep submission and likely being saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
Carnelossi appears good to go to start the round despite nearly going out in the end of the previous frame, and she asserts pressure. Carnelossi kicks low to open up a right hand, and she ignores a body kick to hunt “Problem Child” down. Alencar sticks out a right hand, and Carnelossi swarms her with a combination counter. Alencar snaps out a left, but her blows are largely one-and-done while Carnelossi’s volume is giving her fits. Alencar puts three punches together to decent effect, and she fakes a level change after it to get Carnelossi to bite. They trade low kicks, and Carnelossi checks the latter and gives her another one back. As Carnelossi fearlessly walks Alencar down kicking her in the midsection, Alencar snatches the limb out of the air and trips Carnelossi to the floor. Carnelossi prevents Alencar from getting into her guard by pitching upkicks aplenty, and she even threatens briefly with an omoplata shoulder lock setup that ultimately puts her in a worse position than when she started.
Alencar lowers herself down into the side control position, where she slips right to north-south position with Carnelossi scrambling all the while. Carnelossi counters with her own single-leg shot, and Alencar steps over her and sets up an inverted triangle choke. Alencar hammers the side with elbows until Carnelossi explodes to get to her knees and push through the takedown try. Alencar shuts her down and elbows her in the side of the head until pulling guard and getting Carnelossi’s back.
With a minute left in the round, Alencar gets the body triangle secure, and she starts fishing for chokes. Alencar slides her right forearm beneath the chin, and she goes palm-to-palm but it is not crushingly tight. Alencar adjusts her grip, torqueing the choke as hard as she can, and Carnelossi lifts her arm up and dramatically taps out.
This marks the first time that “Sorriso” has been submitted since her pro debut in 2014 against Amanda Ribas. The victorious Alencar puts behind her a five-fight decision or draw stretch, and all of her stoppages remain by RNC.

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 4:36 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Talita Alencar

Angelo picks Talita Alencar, highlighting her grappling prowess and recent win over Vanessa Demopoulos. He notes Ariane Carnelossi is physically strong but lacks takedown defense and skills. He expects Alencar to get takedowns and control the fight, though he is unsure about spending $9,000 on her in DFS.

"Ariane Carnelossi is going to lose this fight. I don't know if I'm going to spend nine grand on Talita Alencar though."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Talita Alencar

Big Brady picks Talita Alencar due to Ariane Carnelossi's terrible takedown defense (14%). He notes Alencar is not the best wrestler but attempts many takedowns and is good on top with solid ground and pound. He also mentions Alencar is a six-time BJJ world champion. The only concern is Alencar's cardio, but he believes Carnelossi will struggle. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I like Allen Carr. Give me Allen Carr to get takedowns and potentially get a submission. I'll say second round submission for Toita Allen Carr."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Talita Alencar

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Carnelossi is very strong but stiff and awkward everywhere. He thinks Alencar's jiu-jitsu will allow her to drag Carnelossi down and control her on the ground, even if her wrestling isn't elite.

Alencar opened at -500, now -230; Carnelossi opened at +385, now +195.
"I agree that carnalossi is just very strong but also very stiff and awkward everywhere it seems."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Talita Alencar

Lucrative James picks Talita Alencar, citing her superior wrestling and grappling against Ariane Carnelossi, who has poor takedown defense (14%). He believes Alencar will take Carnelossi down at will and control the fight on the ground. He notes Carnelossi's power and toughness but thinks the skill gap is too large, predicting a decision win for Alencar.

Talita Alencar wins by decision
"I got Toita Alan Carr in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

Carnelossi's strength and BJJ black belt should help her stay safe against Alencar, and she will eventually butcher Alencar on the feet to win by TKO. The host is surprised the odds are as wide as they are, implying value on Carnelossi.

surprised by the odds
"Kind of surprised the odds are as wide as they are, but I believe Carnalosi's strength and BJJ Black belt can help her stay safe here against Alan Carr and then eventually butcher Alan Carr on the feet to win …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi despite Talita Alencar being the favorite. He worries that Alencar's grappling may not be enough to get takedowns consistently, and Carnelossi's physicality and strength could neutralize Alencar's shots. He believes Carnelossi will win on damage if the fight stays standing, predicting an upset decision.

"I'm going to go with Ariane Carnelossi. The shoulders are a dead giveaway and when I'm not sure, I'm going to go with this."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Talita Alencar

Zane picks Alencar because she is a solid jiu-jitsu fighter with good top control, while Carnelossi is stiff, head-hunts, and is easy to take down. He notes that Alencar's wrestling is clumsy but she finds ways to get to good positions. Carnelossi tends to stay on her back when put there.

Alencar opened at -500, now -230; Carnelossi opened at +385, now +195.
"I'm just gonna take alan car. Carnalossi is strong but stands really stiff, head hunts like crazy, so she's really easy to take off of her feet."
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 10 of 34 29% 34 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Talita Alencar 0 45 of 75 60% 107 of 150 4 of 5 80% 1 0 12:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 4 of 7 57% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Talita Alencar 0 9 of 17 52% 19 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:25
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 6 of 20 30% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Talita Alencar 0 11 of 24 45% 40 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:43
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 0 of 7 0% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Talita Alencar 0 25 of 34 73% 48 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vanessa Demopoulos 10 of 34 29% 9 of 31 1 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 1
Talita Alencar 45 of 75 60% 39 of 67 4 of 4 2 of 4 13 of 39 1 of 1 31 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Talita Alencar 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 5
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 6 of 20 30% 5 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1
Talita Alencar 11 of 24 45% 7 of 18 3 of 3 1 of 3 8 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 3
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 of 7 0% 0 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Talita Alencar 25 of 34 73% 25 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 23 of 27
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Talita Alencar vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-112), Demopoulos (-108)

Round 1
This 11-week marathon of consecutive UFC cards soldiers on with the penultimate show on the stretch. We scoot back to the confines of the UFC Apex for better EBITDA margins, in a building that was supposed to starting renovations or construction soon. For now, it plays host to 12 fights ranging from 115 pounds to 266, but few matches on the lineup have any rankings relevance while there is likely to be ample pink slip fodder. The ladies in this curtain jerker might be safe if they lose this one, but with the promotion preparing for the summer season of Contender Series, few on the roster are safe. The two that kick this event off might be similar in age but they are a chasm apart in terms of experience. Demopoulos (11-6, 5-3 UFC) celebrates almost three times the appearances of Alencar (5-1-1, 1-1 UFC) despite the Brazilian just two years younger. Referee Chris Tognoni takes charge for the opening bout, and it kicks off without a glove touch. Demopoulos says hello with two punches across the forward bow, and she snaps out another such combo and reaches Alencar with one more left hand before the Brazilian can get to her. Alencar ties her foe up against the cage, and she drops down and wraps up a head lock to force “Lil Monster” to her knees. Alencar uses her left arm to pressure behind Demopoulos’s neck, and she is warned for grabbing the fence when imposing her weight on her opponent. Demopoulos uses her toes to try to pull her out of danger, which too is a foul. Alencar keeps to this position, content to control rather than actually committing to the unorthodox submission. Alencar releases the grip around the neck and pushes Demopoulos’ legs out of the way to establish a more traditional top position. Demopoulos uses her legs to threaten and otherwise keep Alencar honest, allowing Alencar to punch her in the face repeatedly. Demopoulos hunts for a sweep and only bails on it when absorbing a particularly effective elbow. Alencar keeps her full weight down, jumping from one side to the other and winding up in a sudden armbar. The Brazilian punches out of it from above, and she grabs the foot of Demopoulos for a possible foot or ankle lock. Alencar sits on Demopoulos’ face as she hangs on, staying heavy until the round wraps.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 2
Demopoulos starts the round as aggressive as the first, firing off two one-two salvos and a right hand before she is met by her opponent. Alencar gets up close and personal, changing levels for a possible takedown, but abandons it and lets her hands go to smack Demopoulos upside the head. Demopoulos comes up short on a winging overhand right, and she wades back to let Alencar do something similar. Alencar tosses out naked leg kicks to keep Demopoulos away, and she sits down on a clean right hand but does not budge Demopoulos one inch. The moment “Lil Monster” drives through a one-two, Alencar counters her momentum to hit a double-leg takedown and plop her on her back. Alencar lands in half guard, using her shoulder pressure to flatten out Demopoulos as soon as they get horizontal. Alencar is quick to engage her smothering best, stifling Demopoulos and getting warned for striking the spine when she does attack again. “Problem Child” gives Demopoulos another problem by stepping to the other side so she can set up an arm-triangle choke. Demopoulos bucks and kicks enough to gain the space she needs to not get choked out, and this only results in her getting struck with more ground-and-pound. Alencar finds a brief opening and hammers down four right hands, and she sits back on Demopoulos’ face in a relatively unusual position. Demopoulos sells out for a leglock in hopes of reversing the position, and Alencar gets out of it by repeatedly grabbing the fence. Tognoni slaps her hand several times, and Alencar still is able to yank on it to get her leg out of the sub. Rules mean nothing with no consequences, and multiple fence grabs keeping her out of a submission go generally uncalled other than a “knock it off” from Tognoni. Alencar rides out the position on top until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
Demopoulos marches out of her corner a woman possessed, and she lashes out with multiple one-twos down the pipe. Alencar rushes towards her as well, perhaps for a takedown, and she clashes heads before changing levels. Tognoni checks to make sure neither woman sustained damage, and on the restart, Alencar tackles Demopoulos to the mat and the collective air out of the Apex as well. Alencar hangs out in guard, unafraid of anything the Factory X fighter will do to her, and she pops Demopoulos with some short, scoring strikes. Demopoulos hunts for a triangle choke, armbar or even possibly a desperate leglock, and the Brazilian laughs them all off and steps the proper direction to avoid them completely while remaining in top. Alencar shifts to half guard from the opposite side as she wants to set up an armbar, and she drops down ground-and-pound when not isolating the neck. When the sub is not there, Alencar sits up into three-quarter mount, and she attacks with strikes from above. With nothing left to lose, Demopoulos explodes to sit up and even stand. Unfortunately for her, the “Problem Child” is a problem for her, as she executes a near-immediate mat return to sling Demopoulos to her back. Alencar lords over her, dropping down standing-to-ground punches while avoiding upkicks. Alencar picks up the pace with more punches than before, and she climbs into half guard and elbows until the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Alencar (30-26 Alencar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Vanessa Demopoulos via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Angelo argues that Vanessa is the more complete fighter with solid striking, footwork, and decent grappling, while Talita Alencar is an accomplished grappler but ineffective on the feet, small, and powerless. He notes that Talita's takedowns are not great and she relies on strength, and that even if she gets it to the ground, she hasn't shown the killer instinct expected. Angelo believes Vanessa can win via striking and takedown defense, and he dismisses any bias from his past interaction with Vanessa.

"This should be a Vanessa pick all day long she's the more complete fighter of the two to has proven to be pretty useless on the feet she's small she's ineffective she is powerless and even if she gets it …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos despite acknowledging she has questionable wins and poor takedown defense. He believes Talita Alencar's cardio is a major issue, as she slowed down significantly in her Contender Series fight. He expects Demopoulos to survive early grappling and take over in later rounds, finishing a gassed Alencar via ground and pound.

third round ground and pound TKO
"I'm going Vanessa deop here I'm going to take her to win by by third round ground and pound TKO"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Talita Alencar

Alencar's BJJ wizardry will come into play, allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find a submission. The fight could be close but Alencar's grappling advantage is expected to secure the win.

submission
"I think the BJJ Wizardry of Alan car will come into play allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find the submission to get demopoulos out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

The Guru picks Vanessa Demopoulos based on her physicality, scrappiness, and experience. He dismisses Talita Alencar as not UFC-caliber, noting her claim to fame was against someone who got fraud-checked. He admits there's no technical aspect to analyze, just that Demopoulos is larger and more physical.

"Vanessa Demopulus is probably going to win 2928. She's more physical. She's scrappy. She's got experience. She's larger."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stephanie Luciano 1 72 of 175 41% 87 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Talita Alencar 0 41 of 151 27% 45 of 159 1 of 10 10% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stephanie Luciano 0 26 of 67 38% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Talita Alencar 0 17 of 55 30% 17 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Stephanie Luciano 0 24 of 54 44% 31 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Talita Alencar 0 9 of 41 21% 9 of 42 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:21
3 Stephanie Luciano 1 22 of 54 40% 29 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Talita Alencar 0 15 of 55 27% 19 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stephanie Luciano 72 of 175 41% 49 of 139 14 of 22 9 of 14 66 of 167 5 of 7 1 of 1
Talita Alencar 41 of 151 27% 20 of 100 16 of 44 5 of 7 36 of 141 5 of 9 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stephanie Luciano 26 of 67 38% 18 of 52 5 of 10 3 of 5 26 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Talita Alencar 17 of 55 30% 12 of 47 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Stephanie Luciano 24 of 54 44% 15 of 42 5 of 7 4 of 5 21 of 51 3 of 3 0 of 0
Talita Alencar 9 of 41 21% 4 of 28 4 of 11 1 of 2 8 of 37 1 of 3 0 of 1
3 Stephanie Luciano 22 of 54 40% 16 of 45 4 of 5 2 of 4 19 of 49 2 of 4 1 of 1
Talita Alencar 15 of 55 27% 4 of 25 9 of 27 2 of 3 11 of 49 4 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Talita Alencar vs. Stephanie Luciano
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Luciano (-185), Alencar (+154)

Round 1
A women’s strawweight rematch kicks off the streamlined undercard, as Alencar (5-0-1, 1-0 UFC) takes on Luciano (5-1-1, 0-0 UFC) for the second time in less than a year. The 115-pound hopefuls fought to a draw on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. Luciano was awarded a UFC contract for her efforts and Alencar received a traditional call-up for her Octagon debut, as she eked out a split decision over Rayanne dos Santos at UFC Fight Night 233 on Dec. 9. Jerin Valel draws the assignment as the referee. A glove touch gets us underway. Luciano takes the center and eats a head kick right out of the gate. Fortunately for her, there was not much oomph behind it. Alencar fires a leg kick, circles out into open space and steers clear of her opponent’s punches. Luciano tries and fails to corner Alencar, who continues to circle effectively. Luciano now using her seven-inch reach advantage to get her jab and one-twos in gear. She probes to the body, then misfires on an overhand right. Luciano sneaks in a left hook, then gets back to the jab. Midway through the first round, and neither woman has established too much of an advantage. Alencar mixes in a body-head combination, then fakes a takedown. Luciano jabs and manages to dodge the return fire. Ninety seconds to go. Luciano jabs, feints a kick and scores with a pawing right hook. Alencar swings wildly with both hands and misses. They clinch, and Luciano shoots a few knees to the body, then punches on the break. A flying knee from Luciano lands to the body. Jumping switch kick from Luciano gets blocked, but a knee that follows bloodies Alencar’s nose.
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Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano

Round 2
Luciano immediately gets back to the jab. Alencar ducks in for a takedown but fails to corral her counterpart, and Luciano escapes to a standing position. Luciano separates and unleashes more jabs. A spinning backfist from Alencar gets blocked. Both women tend to telegraph their strikes. Luciano sprawls on attempted takedown, takes top position briefly and disengages. More jabs score. Not going well for Alencar thus far. Leg kick from Luciano, then a chopping right hand followed by a left hook. Alencar eats a head kick without issue. Luciano blocks one in return, then connects again upstairs. Alencar now reaching on her punches, as she continues to struggle to find the mark. A minute to go, and Luciano is in charge. Side kick from Luciano grazes Alencar’s midsection. She shoots in response, only to get shut down along the fence. Luciano separates and hammers home a body kick. Alencar fires back but generally with single shots. Luciano whiffs on a spinning backfist and denies a takedown as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano

Round 3
Luciano smiles at her adversary at the start of Round 3, and she has every reason to do so. They trade leg kicks. Alencar looks to pressure, but Luciano calmly circles away. Right cross-left hook combination from Luciano. She counters an Alencar leg kick with multiple punches. To no one’s surprise, Alencar needs this fight on the mat to have a real chance. Luciano denies a takedown, blocks a head kick and connects with a clean one-two. She backs Alencar to the fence with punches, engages her in the clinch and uses her height and leverage to her advantage. They separate midway through the round. Luciano drops her fellow Brazilian with a jumping knee. Alencar resorts to the butt scoot while she clears her head. Back on her feet now. Luciano looks to jab, throws a right hand over the top and engages Alencar in the clinch with double underhooks. They separate. Time running out on Alencar. Luciano leaving her feet to throw kicks and knees more and more as her comfort level increases. She lands a close-range elbow and a left hook. Alencar tries to answer. No luck. Luciano coasts to the finish line.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Luciano (30-27 Luciano)

The Official Result
Stephanie Luciano def. Talita Alencar—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Angelo picks Luciano because she showed toughness and cardio in the first fight, biting down on her mouthpiece and coming forward while Alencar gassed. He notes that Alencar went 4 for 24 on takedowns and without takedowns she cannot win. However, he acknowledges it's a tricky rematch and Alencar could win if she gets her wrestling going.

"luchano is the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Cody agrees, highlighting Luciano's grappling defense and striking advantage. He notes Alencar's striking is stiff and she mostly holds opponents down. Cody expects Luciano to stuff takedowns and win a decision or late TKO.

"I agree with Luciano it seems like this is kind of her style is that her takedown defense is not necessarily great but her grappling defense is pretty solid"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Luciano is the better striker and should have a decided advantage if she keeps the fight standing. However, her takedown defense and fight IQ are concerns, and Alencar could make it close if she completes takedowns. Luciano's youth and damage output lead to a decision win, but confidence is low due to ring rust and Alencar's BJJ threat.

Luciano by decision
"I still believe Luciano will end up getting the better of those exchanges getting the better of the Striking Landing more damage and winning this fight on the scorecards not a whole lot of confidence here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Paul picks Luciano, noting her youth, volume, and ability to survive on the ground. He thinks she can keep the fight standing more this time and win by decision or late TKO. He mentions her dengue fever layoff but believes she should be improved.

"I think it minus F 15 um she's probably Fair PR or she's probably a fair favorite to uh to be betting this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano based on her size advantage and ability to stuff takedowns. He notes that in their first fight on the Contender Series, Talita Alencar had control time but couldn't finish, and Luciano won the third round decisively. He believes Luciano's defensive jiu-jitsu and striking will carry her to victory in the rematch.

"I'm going to go with Stephanie Luciano lad because she's a bit bigger than her lad and she Stu the takedowns"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Talita Alencar 0 57 of 130 43% 80 of 156 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Rayanne dos Santos 0 36 of 157 22% 48 of 176 1 of 9 11% 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Talita Alencar 0 34 of 64 53% 34 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rayanne dos Santos 0 11 of 63 17% 13 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:24
2 Talita Alencar 0 10 of 22 45% 32 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Rayanne dos Santos 0 16 of 44 36% 25 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:11
3 Talita Alencar 0 13 of 44 29% 14 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rayanne dos Santos 0 9 of 50 18% 10 of 52 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Talita Alencar 57 of 130 43% 41 of 104 11 of 17 5 of 9 45 of 117 11 of 12 1 of 1
Rayanne dos Santos 36 of 157 22% 21 of 125 12 of 25 3 of 7 21 of 133 8 of 12 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Talita Alencar 34 of 64 53% 28 of 56 4 of 5 2 of 3 27 of 57 7 of 7 0 of 0
Rayanne dos Santos 11 of 63 17% 5 of 49 5 of 12 1 of 2 9 of 59 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Talita Alencar 10 of 22 45% 4 of 13 4 of 5 2 of 4 7 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 1
Rayanne dos Santos 16 of 44 36% 8 of 30 6 of 11 2 of 3 4 of 25 5 of 7 7 of 12
3 Talita Alencar 13 of 44 29% 9 of 35 3 of 7 1 of 2 11 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rayanne dos Santos 9 of 50 18% 8 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 2 8 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Talita Alencar vs. Rayanne Amanda dos Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dos Santos (-148), Alencar (+124)

Round 1
The penultimate UFC card of 2023 is upon us, and it is certainly an event.
Road to UFC 2 Finals
UFC Shanghai
UFC Vegas 83 will bring a small crop of Asian prospects to the forefront, but it will start with two Brazilian ladies going head-to-head at 115 pounds. Invicta FC atomweight champ Amanda (14-6, 0-0 UFC) will be moving up in weight for her promotional debut, while Alencar (4-0-1, 0-0 UFC) was signed off of Dana White’s Contender Series—from a draw. High finish rates from the ladies mean that referee Keith Peterson might have to get involved before it is all said and done, but before they get after it, the strawweight leave their nonsense at the door and wade towards one another without a glove touch in sight. Alencar sticks out a front kick to introduce herself, and Amanda backs off and flicks out a jab. Amanda springs to the side and gets kicked upside the head, and Alencar crashes the pocket and looks for a takedown. When Amanda pushes her off, Alencar looks for a left hand on the break. Alencar reaches out with an overhand right, and she just misses with a subsequent high kick. The ladies slam fists in one another’s faces at the same time, and Alencar wobbles back but gathers her senses and looks to settle down with jabs and head kick attempts. Alencar misses the mark with an overhand right, and Amanda answers her with a solid right that knocks her foe back. Amanda pushes off with a one-two, and as she overcommits to a strike, Alencar closes in on her and snatches hold of a single-leg takedown. Amanda backs herself up against the fence, keeping her balance, and she leans back against the wall. When she pushes off, she takes a right hand on the chin. Amanda comes out firing, and Alencar responds in kind as they crack one another in the chops. Amanda wings a left hand high to open up a straight right hand down the middle, and Alencar takes a few steps back and gets driven towards the cage wall. Amanda rings her bell with a one-two, and she goes low with a kick to mix things up. Amanda strings several punches together, and she ends a combination with a right hand right on the ear. The two slow down to not burn out their gas tanks early, and Amanda settles down with a few jabs. Alencar attempts a takedown in open cage, and Amanda shoves her back and starts lighting her up with body shots and those up high. Right as the bell sounds, Amanda leaps in the air, and she bounces of Alencar’s forehead—it is a legal blow, technically, so nothing else comes of it.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amanda
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Amanda
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amanda

Round 2
The ladies meet in the middle, and Alencar reintroduces herself with a winging right hand that bounces off the guard, and a head kick try that makes her topple over. Amanda backs off, as if to signal her foe to stand back up, but Alencar butt-scoots towards her. Amanda motions for her to stand up, and Peterson gets between them to make it so. When upright, Alencar throws hard but cannot find her range with her strikes. Amanda prods at her with a low kick, and she leans back from a pair of high kicks that buzz past her. Amanda calmly works her way in, peppering with the occasional kick, and shutting down much of anything coming back her way. When Alencar attempts a head kick, Amanda dips and smacks her in the lead leg. Both women paw out front kicks several feet away from the other, and Alencar struggles to get in. Alencar aims one kick low as Amanda springs from side to side, and the former Invicta champ ducks a pair of punches and nails Alencar with a right hand. Alencar crowds her and jams her up against the fence, and she spams knees to the body to stay busy. With both underhooks, Alencar muscles Amanda to the mat courtesy of a body lock takedown. Alencar lands on top in half guard, and she looks for side control while also attempting an armlock on the other side. Amanda defends against the submission while pushing the shorter woman off of her, and she connects with a few on the chest to keep Alencar at bay. Alencar lowers herself down to deliver some powerful strikes, and she stings Amanda with one right before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alencar

Round 3
Alencar takes to the center of the cage to start the final frame, and she leads the dance with a one-two as Amanda ducks to the side. Amanda looks for her own short combination, and she ends up countering Alencar with a short right when Alencar attacks. Alencar kicks the body and reaches out with a left hand, and Amanda’s own offense is relatively muted. Amanda looks to strike when Alencar ducks down for a takedown, and she pushes Alencar to the side and whiffs on a haymaker when she breaks away. Alencar tosses out three punches that bounce off the raised guard, and Amanda gets one back on the temple. This same type of exchange repeats itself, with Alencar not landing while Amanda gets one in. Amanda swings for the fences, and Alencar is well out of harm’s way in time. Alencar, not wanting to get hit by one of those booming shots, shoots for a single. Amanda stuffs it and sprints to the side to reset. Alencar meanders forward, attempting kicks and punches, and Amanda calmly responds with a single damaging leg kick. Amanda doubles up on a jab as Alencar walks her down, and she hops back to avoid a head kick and comes up short with an overhand right. Both women get off right hands during a brief exchange, and Amanda separates and connects with a low kick. Alencar attempts a single, and Amanda stuffs her and busts her in the chops with a right hand. Amanda is swinging with everything she has, and she catches Alencar at the end of a right. Amanda smiles with 10 seconds left on the clock, as she draws Alencar into a brawl. This works to her advantage, as she rings Alencar up with a few strikes before Alencar tries to clinch up. This position ends the fight, and Amanda, all smiles, looks for a hug from her now former opponent.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amanda (29-28 Amanda)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Amanda (29-28 Amanda)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amanda (29-28 Amanda)

The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Rayanne Amanda dos Santos via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rayanne dos Santos

Cody picks Rayanne dos Santos. He notes that she is a natural atomweight moving up, but she has speed and better striking. Cody points out that Alencar is a BJJ specialist with poor cardio and limited MMA experience. He thinks dos Santos can keep the fight standing and outpoint Alencar. Cody also mentions that dos Santos has good takedown defense and cardio from five-round fights.

"I got to take the slight favorite"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rayanne dos Santos

Paul picks Rayanne dos Santos. He notes that she has a well-rounded skill set and better striking. Paul points out that Alencar is one-dimensional and gassed in her Contender Series fight. He thinks dos Santos's reach and striking advantage will be key. Paul is not forcing an underdog pick here and goes with the favorite.

"it's rayon Amanda the favorite minus 160 for me"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Angelo argues that Vanessa is the more complete fighter with solid striking, footwork, and decent grappling, while Talita Alencar is an accomplished grappler but ineffective on the feet, small, and powerless. He notes that Talita's takedowns are not great and she relies on strength, and that even if she gets it to the ground, she hasn't shown the killer instinct expected. Angelo believes Vanessa can win via striking and takedown defense, and he dismisses any bias from his past interaction with Vanessa.

"This should be a Vanessa pick all day long she's the more complete fighter of the two to has proven to be pretty useless on the feet she's small she's ineffective she is powerless and even if she gets it to the ground I don't think she's the killer that …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos despite acknowledging she has questionable wins and poor takedown defense. He believes Talita Alencar's cardio is a major issue, as she slowed down significantly in her Contender Series fight. He expects Demopoulos to survive early grappling and take over in later rounds, finishing a gassed Alencar via ground and pound.

third round ground and pound TKO
"I'm going Vanessa deop here I'm going to take her to win by by third round ground and pound TKO"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Talita Alencar

Alencar's BJJ wizardry will come into play, allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find a submission. The fight could be close but Alencar's grappling advantage is expected to secure the win.

submission
"I think the BJJ Wizardry of Alan car will come into play allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find the submission to get demopoulos out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vanessa Demopoulos

The Guru picks Vanessa Demopoulos based on her physicality, scrappiness, and experience. He dismisses Talita Alencar as not UFC-caliber, noting her claim to fame was against someone who got fraud-checked. He admits there's no technical aspect to analyze, just that Demopoulos is larger and more physical.

"Vanessa Demopulus is probably going to win 2928. She's more physical. She's scrappy. She's got experience. She's larger."
Comments (2)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Decision for each fighter is +120. Crazy really. Demo weakness is takedowns and it ishould be Talita strenght but with so little fight experience can you really bank on it. Vanessa is 36 and Talita is 34. Does Experience matter? No idea. The odds are pick em but Vanessa has face tougher competition. 15 pro fights in LFA and the UFC, but perhaps bettors are salty about the greasy decisions she is getting.

BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Demo's takedown defences is unbelievable bad. 3/3 for takedowns Talita. Talita shoulders looked a bit better. How is her standup. Can she be bet on the feet