UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022 · Featherweight · Completed
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Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 38
Height 5' 11"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Brian Kelleher
3.31 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.59 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.68 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kevin Croom
2.65 SLpM
34.0% Str. Acc.
3.1 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
0.48 TD Avg
5.0% TD Acc.
30.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Brian Kelleher - Fight History
LOSS vs Cody Gibson
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 3:58 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Gibson 0 2 of 12 16% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Brian Kelleher 0 13 of 24 54% 18 of 30 2 of 5 40% 1 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Gibson 0 2 of 12 16% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Brian Kelleher 0 13 of 24 54% 18 of 30 2 of 5 40% 1 0 2:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Gibson 2 of 12 16% 0 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Kelleher 13 of 24 54% 9 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 18 3 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Gibson 2 of 12 16% 0 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Kelleher 13 of 24 54% 9 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 18 3 of 5 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Gibson vs. Brian Kelleher
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gibson (-205), Kelleher (+170)

Round 1
Rounding out the rocky prelims is an aging 135er with a .500 record in the promotion against a fellow fighter over the age of 35 a loss away from reaching the dreaded “Sinosic Line.” Gibson (19-10, 1-5 UFC) is not the only fighter to sport this record of 1-5 with the potential to go 1-6 tonight, but more on that later. He battles the hyper-aggressive Kelleher (24-15, 8-8 UFC), and this one has the potential of ending in the blink of an eye. Referee Kerry Hatley is ready for whatever happens next, and that is a touch of gloves. Kelleher immediately goes on the offensive with a leg kick and a front kick. Gibson gives him back an overhand right to make Kelleher take a funny step back, and he connects with two more punches that make Kelleher turn away and have to recover. Kelleher gets back to the middle of the cage and kicks a few more times, and he is reached with a front kick by “The Renegade.” Gibson connects with a calf kick, and he misses with a one-two. Kelleher races forward swinging fists, and Gibson grabs hold of him and manages to take his back standing to wrench him down to a knee. Kelleher pops back up, but the second effort for Gibson succeeds. Kelleher tries to set up a guillotine choke, and Gibson frees himself and assumes top position. Kelleher fights his way back to his feet in a hurry, and Gibson grinds on him as he looks for a mat return. Gibson succeeds in putting Kelleher down for a second, only for “Boom” to explode to his feet again. Kelleher hand-fights to spin out but eats a knee on the break. Gibson races after him with an uppercut and a slashing elbow, and he pushes Kelleher to the fence. Kelleher welcomes him with a knee, and Gibson gives him a few back. Kelleher turns eats an elbow that drops him to a knee, but Kelleher recovers and pursues a takedown. Gibson turns him away and attacks for his own takedown, leading to Kelleher jumping guard for a guillotine choke.
“The Renegade” breaks out of the choke and moves into half guard, where he almost instantly locks down an arm-triangle choke. Kelleher is stuck in a precarious position, and when he tries to fight out of it, he finds that Gibson is an immovable stone on his body. Kelleher surrenders before going out,
and tonight has its first finish. Gibson earns his first victory since his first stint in the promotion in 2014, and he is elated to get his hand raised in the Octagon for the second time.

The Official Result
Cody Gibson def. Brian Kelleher R1 3:58 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Angelo picks Cody Gibson because he is the more focused fighter with length and cardio, while Brian Kelleher is past his prime and on a three-fight skid. However, he is not confident at the favorite price and notes that Kelleher's losses have been to top competition. He considers an inside the distance/decision no action bet on Gibson.

considering inside the distance/decision no action bet
"Cody Gibson's going to be the pick not insanely confident certainly not at these the favorite money we have going here but maybe there's an inside the distance decision no action bet on Cody"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Cody picks Gibson, citing his size advantage (5'10" reach vs 5'6"), durability, and volume. He notes Kelleher's age (38), neck injury, and recent inactivity. He thinks Gibson can outwork Kelleher and that Kelleher's path to victory via guillotine is unlikely. He calls both fighters 'expired milk' but leans Gibson.

"Pick for me is Cody Gibson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Brian Kelleher, despite initially favoring Cody Gibson. He notes Gibson's tendency to fade in fights, citing the Ray Borg and Brad Katona fights where Gibson was winning early but fell apart. Vreeland believes Kelleher can survive early and take over late, possibly by submission or TKO.

"reluctantly I'll pick Brian Keller here for the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Gibson is a favorite at -185. He has a 4-inch height and 7-inch reach advantage, which he can use to keep Kelleher at bay with his boxing and kicks. Kelleher is on a three-fight losing streak and approaching 38, showing signs of decline. Gibson needs to be wary of Kelleher's guillotine, but he should be able to dictate the pace and win a decision.

"I think Gibson will be very privy to that I think we'll see him more so lean on his striking rather than his grappling and I think that will be enough for him to go out there and put together …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Paul also picks Gibson, agreeing that wrestling will be negated and that Gibson's volume will be key. He notes Gibson's close fight with Brad Katona where he landed 164 significant strikes. He thinks Kelleher's guillotine is a threat but not enough to overcome Gibson's output.

"I like Gibson as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

The MMA Guru picks Cody Gibson despite previously saying he'd never pick him again. He notes Gibson might be able to hurt Kelleher, who is 37 and has been inactive with multiple neck surgeries. He points to Kelleher's recent first-round losses to Umar Nurmagomedov, Cody Garbrandt, and Mario Bautista, and questions his dedication. Gibson's close fight with Miles Johns is seen as a positive.

by decision
"I'm going to go with Cody Gibson getting this one done by decision"
LOSS vs Cody Garbrandt
KO (punch) R1 3:42 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Garbrandt 1 20 of 41 48% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Brian Kelleher 0 17 of 25 68% 21 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Garbrandt 1 20 of 41 48% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Brian Kelleher 0 17 of 25 68% 21 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Garbrandt 20 of 41 48% 16 of 37 2 of 2 2 of 2 16 of 35 4 of 6 0 of 0
Brian Kelleher 17 of 25 68% 9 of 13 1 of 3 7 of 9 17 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Garbrandt 20 of 41 48% 16 of 37 2 of 2 2 of 2 16 of 35 4 of 6 0 of 0
Brian Kelleher 17 of 25 68% 9 of 13 1 of 3 7 of 9 17 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Cody Garbrandt

Angelo picks Cody Garbrandt, stating he should dominate everywhere, but worries about his chin and tendency to brawl. He notes that if Cody shows patience, he is a confident pick. He is unsure about betting due to chin concerns.

No bet; chin concern; odds are 2-to-1
"Cody garbrandt should absolutely win this fight and if you trust his chin then it might be worth spending a dollar or two on him I don't know yet if I trust that chin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Big Brady picks Brian Kelleher to win by knockout, despite acknowledging Garbrandt is more skilled. He notes Garbrandt's chin issues (4 KO losses) and washed performances, while Kelleher has power and a guillotine threat. Brady believes Kelleher will force exchanges and land a big shot, putting Garbrandt out. He also notes Garbrandt has zero submissions, so a sub win is unlikely.

"I'm GNA say Brian Keller here does knock out Cody garbrandt"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cody Garbrandt

Cody picks Garbrandt, arguing that he is better in every aspect of martial arts except durability. He notes that Kelleher's only path is a knockout, but Kelleher has only two KO wins in six years. Cody believes Garbrandt will fight smart behind his jab and potentially win by decision or finish. He acknowledges the chin concern but thinks Kelleher is not the guy to exploit it.

Cody Garbrandt by decision
"the pick just like you is gonna be no love Cody garbrandt"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Lucrative James picks Brian Kelleher as the underdog. After rewatching Cody Garbrandt's last fight against Trevin Jones, he saw Cody was hesitant, got wobbled, and taken down multiple times. He believes Cody's chin issues could resurface if Kelleher catches him. He acknowledges Kelleher's age (37) and two-fight losing streak but thinks Cody is not a minus 250 fighter.

"I definitely think Brian Kelleher is the side... another dog or pass spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

The host is high on Kelleher as a plus 185 underdog, questioning how Garbrandt can be such a heavy favorite given his recent tentative style and chin issues. He believes Kelleher's aggression, durability, and grappling edge will be key. He expects Kelleher to crash the pocket, land big shots, and possibly finish Garbrandt. The only concern is Kelleher returning from neck surgery, but he thinks even 70% of Kelleher is enough to pull the upset.

Kelleher by knockout
"plus 185 is a tremendous number for a guy like teller the only thing keeping me from this making it an even bigger play would be the fact that he's coming back from such a severe injury surgery rehab all …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cody Garbrandt

Paul picks Garbrandt, stating that skill for skill, this fight is not competitive. He notes that Garbrandt is much faster on the feet and that Kelleher is not a murderous power puncher. Paul points to Garbrandt's last fight against Trevin Jones where he fought smart and stayed out of trouble. He believes Garbrandt will box Kelleher up and potentially win by decision or TKO.

"Cody garbrandt's way faster on the feet... I don't think this is even remotely competitive"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Cody Garbrandt

The Guru picks Cody Garbrandt over Brian Kelleher, noting Kelleher's recent losses and decline. He believes the matchup is designed for Garbrandt to get a KO win on a big card. He predicts Garbrandt will win by TKO in the second round.

Garbrandt by TKO in round 2
"I'm going Cody garbrandt and I'm going to pick him back KO Brian kellerer... I'm going to go cody garbrandt getting this one done by TKO in the second round"
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:27 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brian Kelleher 0 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brian Kelleher 0 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Kelleher 6 of 17 35% 3 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Kelleher 6 of 17 35% 3 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Angelo picks Brian Kelleher in a tough, close fight. He notes both fighters are similar busy strikers who can grapple, but gives the edge to Kelleher's experience and physicality at 135 pounds. His main worry is Kelleher's negative striking differential, but he believes if Kelleher brings the same grappling he showed against Kevin Crume or Domingo Pilarte, he gets the win. He expects a razor-thin decision.

"brian kelleher gets this done so he's the pick but this is a tough fight a close call and it might be a razor thin fight of the night decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by decision. He highlights Bautista's significant size and reach advantages (3-inch height, 5-inch reach), superior striking, and underrated grappling. He notes that Kelleher has been submitted seven times and Bautista has submission skills, but expects the fight to stay standing where Bautista's youth and size will be decisive. He mentions Kelleher's durability (only one KO in 37 fights) but sees Bautista winning a decision.

"i think this fight does primarily play out on the feet and at that point i do think mar batista is going to win this fight i'll say he wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody thinks Bautista is dynamic with good striking and wrestling. He notes Kelleher relies on takedowns and if he can't take Bautista down, he'll be out struck. He expects Bautista to win a decision.

"i think batista's gonna win a unanimous decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul agrees with Cody, adding nothing to dispute.

"yep i totally agree there nothing really to add"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Mario Bautista, noting Brian Kelleher looks old and slow at 35. He believes Bautista has good grappling and won't be exposed there, and that Kelleher struggles against step-up competition. He predicts a third-round TKO for Bautista, citing Bautista's training with Sean O'Malley and other top bantamweights.

third round TKO prediction
"i'm gonna go with mario batista here over brian kelleher"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:15 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 19 5% 1 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Brian Kelleher 0 18 of 26 69% 21 of 29 1 of 5 20% 1 0 1:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 19 5% 1 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Brian Kelleher 0 18 of 26 69% 21 of 29 1 of 5 20% 1 0 1:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 19 5% 0 of 13 0 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
Brian Kelleher 18 of 26 69% 9 of 15 7 of 9 2 of 2 13 of 21 5 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 19 5% 0 of 13 0 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
Brian Kelleher 18 of 26 69% 9 of 15 7 of 9 2 of 2 13 of 21 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar confidently, calling him a clear pick and a parlay piece. He highlights Umar's fantastic chain wrestling and constant pressure. He notes Kelleher doesn't have one-punch KO power, so even if Umar is hittable, it won't matter. He mentions the betting line movement favoring Umar.

parlay piece
"umar is the clear pick for me here and i will parlay him for sure"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by submission in the second round. He is very high on Umar's skills, noting his fast striking, good wrestling, and scrambling ability. Brady points out that Kelleher has been submitted six times and has poor takedown defense (60%). He believes Umar will be able to take Kelleher down and submit him, especially given Kelleher's tendency to give up takedowns and go for guillotines. Brady also notes Umar's youth and potential for improvement.

Nurmagomedov by submission in round 2
"i'm gonna take umar nurmagomedov to win i'm actually gonna take him to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody is extremely high on Umar, calling him a future champion. He praises Umar's striking, takedown entries, and pace. He bet the under 2.5 rounds at +130, expecting an early finish. Cody notes Kelleher's only path is a guillotine, but Umar is too well-rounded and will dominate everywhere.

Bet under 2.5 rounds at +130
"cousin umar is the truth"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Levi picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He praises Umar's kicking game and grappling, and believes Kelleher will be outmatched. He notes that Kelleher is a tough veteran but Umar is too much. He predicts Umar will win a decision, possibly a dominant one.

"i'ma say umar nurmagomedov decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent striking and grappling. Kelleher's only path is a knockout, but Nurmagomedov will use his kicks to maintain distance and then take the fight to the ground where he is dominant. Kelleher is durable and has good submission defense, but Nurmagomedov should control the fight and win a decision. The minus 675 is too steep for parlays, but Nurmagomedov via decision is a solid prop.

Nurmagomedov via decision
"i am picking nurmagomedov i do think that kelleher is quite durable so i do think that we see this go the full 15 minutes uh so if you do want to look to play this fight maybe taking the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, calling Umar the complete package with elite wrestling and striking. He notes Umar's performance against Sergey Morozov was dominant and his pace is relentless. Paul believes Kelleher's only chance is to catch Umar in a guillotine, but Umar is too skilled. He plans to include Umar in a parlay with Colby.

"cousin umar is the truth"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov over Brian Kelleher, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Nurmagomedov's dominant win over Sergey Morozov and sees him as a rising threat in the bantamweight division. He criticizes Kelleher's recent performance against Kevin Croom, noting he looked slow and old. He predicts Nurmagomedov will out-strike Kelleher early, take his back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the second round, similar to his debut finish.

method: rear-naked choke, round: 2
"i'm going to go with vumano megamedov here and i think he'll get this one done via re-naked choke in the second round again"
WIN vs Kevin Croom
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brian Kelleher 1 38 of 77 49% 67 of 123 6 of 8 75% 0 0 6:26
Kevin Croom 0 60 of 174 34% 83 of 206 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brian Kelleher 1 11 of 29 37% 15 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:17
Kevin Croom 0 33 of 88 37% 43 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
2 Brian Kelleher 0 14 of 25 56% 22 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:43
Kevin Croom 0 22 of 72 30% 34 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Brian Kelleher 0 13 of 23 56% 30 of 54 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:26
Kevin Croom 0 5 of 14 35% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brian Kelleher 38 of 77 49% 25 of 58 12 of 17 1 of 2 25 of 58 3 of 5 10 of 14
Kevin Croom 60 of 174 34% 36 of 141 11 of 16 13 of 17 58 of 168 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brian Kelleher 11 of 29 37% 7 of 24 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0
Kevin Croom 33 of 88 37% 17 of 68 6 of 8 10 of 12 32 of 84 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Brian Kelleher 14 of 25 56% 8 of 15 5 of 8 1 of 2 12 of 23 0 of 0 2 of 2
Kevin Croom 22 of 72 30% 14 of 61 5 of 7 3 of 4 22 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brian Kelleher 13 of 23 56% 10 of 19 3 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 2 8 of 12
Kevin Croom 5 of 14 35% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Croom

Big Brady notes the significant age and reach advantage for Croom, who is 26 and has a 5-inch reach edge. He praises Croom's wrestling and grappling, and expects him to exploit Kelleher's 59% takedown defense. He predicts Croom will win a decision, though he acknowledges Kelleher is dangerous with submissions off his back.

"i'm going to take gawker monov to win i'm going to take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Cody picks Kakhramonov, highlighting his wrestling, size, and cardio. He notes Kelleher's wrestling won't be effective and Kakhramonov's striking is solid. He expects Kakhramonov to win by decision or TKO. He mentions Kakhramonov's bright future.

"i think the kid has got a bright future and uh this is a good showcase spot for him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher, noting that Croom took the fight on two weeks' notice and tends to fade as fights progress. He acknowledges Croom's dangerous guillotine early, but believes Kelleher's durability and cardio will allow him to take over in later rounds. Levi also mentions Kelleher's improved grappling, as seen in his last fight against Domingo Pilarte where he used takedowns to control the fight.

"give me brian kelleher to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

The host picks Brian Kelleher, citing his veteran experience and takedown defense against the grappler Kakaromanov. He expects Kelleher to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually knocking out Kakaromanov. The host notes Kakaromanov's striking is still developing and that Kelleher's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Under 2.5 rounds at even money mentioned as a good spot.
"i'm going with kelleher i don't mind the under two and a half either around even money i think that's a damn good spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Kakhramonov, citing his impressive debut, wrestling base, and size advantage. He notes Kelleher's path is a guillotine, but Kakhramonov's wrestling should nullify that. He expects Kakhramonov to win via decision or late TKO. He calls -155 a fair price.

"i think he wins here and i think minus 155 is a pretty fair price to pay"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Croom

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Croom (Saidyokub Kakhramonov) to win by third-round submission. He trusts Croom's stand-up and grappling awareness, noting that he handled Trevin Jones well and has good takedown defense. He believes Kelleher will struggle to get takedowns and will slow down as the fight goes on, leading to a desperate shot that Croom will capitalize on with a guillotine or D'Arce choke. He predicts Croom will defend takedowns early, then submit Kelleher in the third round.

"i'm gonna go with a third round submission win for say you could cut ramonov"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brian Kelleher 0 28 of 40 70% 236 of 279 3 of 3 100% 2 1 12:49
Domingo Pilarte 0 3 of 11 27% 117 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brian Kelleher 0 13 of 19 68% 68 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:50
Domingo Pilarte 0 0 of 2 0% 35 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brian Kelleher 0 4 of 8 50% 53 of 64 1 of 1 100% 2 1 3:08
Domingo Pilarte 0 2 of 6 33% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
3 Brian Kelleher 0 11 of 13 84% 115 of 126 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:51
Domingo Pilarte 0 1 of 3 33% 55 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brian Kelleher 28 of 40 70% 24 of 35 2 of 3 2 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 27 of 37
Domingo Pilarte 3 of 11 27% 2 of 8 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brian Kelleher 13 of 19 68% 11 of 16 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 18
Domingo Pilarte 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brian Kelleher 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7
Domingo Pilarte 2 of 6 33% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Brian Kelleher 11 of 13 84% 9 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 12
Domingo Pilarte 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Big Brady picks Brian Kelleher, citing a massive gap in level of competition. He notes Kelleher has fought and lost to top bantamweights, while Pilarte has been dominated by lower-level fighters. He believes Kelleher is the better striker and grappler, despite Pilarte's reach advantage. He predicts a third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"i like kelleher here i think he's the better striker i think he's the better grappler"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Cody picks Kelleher, expecting him to win inside the distance. He notes Kelleher's guillotine threat but worries about the reach disadvantage and weight cut. He believes Kelleher's superior striking and wrestling will be enough.

Kelleher inside the distance
"kelleher for me likely inside the distance he really likes that guillotine"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Kelleher is the much better striker with good volume and leg kicks. Pilarte has rudimentary striking, poor cardio, and has been close to being finished in recent fights. Kelleher's guillotine threat will deter takedowns. I'm picking Kelleher inside the distance, likely by knockout in the second round.

under 2.5 rounds (-165); fight doesn't go to decision (-175); Kelleher inside the distance (+125); Kelleher round 3 sprinkle
"i am going to be taking kelleher inside the distance plus 125 is the last spot that i saw"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Paul picks Kelleher, citing his durability and better striking and wrestling. He notes Pilarte's weight cut issues and long layoff, and believes Kelleher can avoid Pilarte's submissions. However, he is not fully confident due to Kelleher's weight cut complaints.

"i do think he's going to get the win"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

The MMA Guru picks Brian Kelleher to win by guillotine choke in the first round. He criticizes Pilarte as a weight bully with a weak chin and poor cardio. He expects Kelleher to rock Pilarte with hooks, then catch him in a guillotine when Pilarte shoots for a single leg. He emphasizes Kelleher's toughness and finishing ability.

guillotine choke finish in the first round
"i'm going to say kelleher gets a guillotine choke finish in the first round here"
LOSS vs Ricky Simón
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Feb 13, 2021
WIN vs Ray Rodriguez
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 0:39 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Sep 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brian Kelleher 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Ray Rodriguez 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brian Kelleher 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Ray Rodriguez 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brian Kelleher 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ray Rodriguez 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brian Kelleher 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ray Rodriguez 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Big Brady picks Kelleher, citing his durability (only one KO loss in 32 fights) and experience. He thinks Kelleher can take a takedown and submit Natividad. He notes Natividad is a brawler who gets hit a lot and has been KO'd in 9 seconds before. He predicts a second-round submission.

Kelleher by submission, second round; possibly a parlay piece
"give me brian kelleher and just taking a look at the line here um kelleher is minus 225"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher by guillotine finish. He notes that Kelleher is experienced and tends to beat lower-level opponents, but warns that Kelleher is unreliable as a big favorite. He acknowledges that newcomer Kevin Natividad has power and could upset if Kelleher underestimates him, but ultimately sides with Kelleher's experience.

Kelleher by guillotine
"i actually got brian keller here by a guillotine finish this weekend"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

The host picks Kelleher to win by first-round KO. He cites Kelleher's veteran experience, solid chin, and takedown defense. He notes Natividad's only loss was a 9-second KO and expects Kelleher to land a knockout punch early.

under 2.5 rounds at -120
"i'm taking brian kelleher to win this fight via first round ko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

The MMA Guru picks Brian Kelleher, noting that his opponent Kevin Natividad (originally Ray Rodriguez was scheduled but changed) has a padded record with weak competition. He believes Kelleher's experience against top fighters will prevail, and expects a second-round submission. He mentions Kelleher's losses to high-level opponents and his ability to survive early pressure.

second round submission
"i'm gonna go with brian kelleher getting the job done by second round submission"
Kevin Croom - Fight History
LOSS vs Alateng Heili
TKO (punches) R1 0:47 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alateng Heili 1 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Kevin Croom 0 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alateng Heili 1 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Kevin Croom 0 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alateng Heili 9 of 17 52% 9 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
Kevin Croom 2 of 12 16% 0 of 5 1 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alateng Heili 9 of 17 52% 9 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
Kevin Croom 2 of 12 16% 0 of 5 1 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alateng Heili

Angelo picks Alateng Heili, but thinks the odds are a bit wide. He notes that Heili is a technical striker who can struggle with brawlers like Croom. He believes Heili can get the fight to the ground if needed, but must be wary of Croom's submissions. He considers Croom a far better fighter than his recent record shows.

wins inside the distance decision no action bet on Kevin Croom (if Croom wins by KO or submission, gets paid; if loses decision, refund)
"the bet that i will place here will probably be a wins inside the distance decision no action bet on kevin crone because he's tough enough to survive"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Croom

Big Brady picks Kevin Croom for the upset by decision. He notes Croom has a massive size advantage (6 inches taller, 6.5 inch reach) and will throw more volume than Alateng Heili, who has low output (max 47 significant strikes in a UFC fight). He expects Croom to win minutes on the feet and avoid Heili's power. He acknowledges Croom's takedown accuracy is poor but thinks Heili's wrestling plays into Croom's ground game.

win by decision
"i'm going to take kevin kroom for the upset to start off the card i'm going to take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alateng Heili

Cody picks Heili, emphasizing his wrestling and top pressure. He notes Croom's size but thinks Heili can take him down and win from guard. He believes Heili's camp at Fight Ready will help him execute the right game plan.

"highly alatang should be easy money takedowns good enough top pressure good enough cardio"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alateng Heili

Daniel Levi leans Alateng Heili, noting this is his proper weight class and he is likely fight-ready with good conditioning. He respects Croom's size and finishing ability but worries about Croom cutting to 135 and fading late, as he has a history of losing decisions. Levi expects Heili to win a decision.

Picks Heili by decision
"Give me highly alating to come out here and win a decision here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alateng Heili

Paul picks Heili, citing his wrestling advantage and durability. He thinks Heili can take Croom down and control him. He notes Heili's poor decision-making in the past but believes he will wrestle here.

"i think aletang haley is the side here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Croom

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Croom as an underdog, believing the odds are incorrect. He notes Croom's 7-inch reach advantage and awkward striking style, and doubts Heili's chin and technical ability. He expects Croom to win a 29-28 unanimous decision, possibly losing the third round.

underdog, unanimous decision 29-28
"i'm starting with kevin croom here as an underdog i think the odds are completely incorrect"
LOSS vs Brian Kelleher
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brian Kelleher 1 38 of 77 49% 67 of 123 6 of 8 75% 0 0 6:26
Kevin Croom 0 60 of 174 34% 83 of 206 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brian Kelleher 1 11 of 29 37% 15 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:17
Kevin Croom 0 33 of 88 37% 43 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
2 Brian Kelleher 0 14 of 25 56% 22 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:43
Kevin Croom 0 22 of 72 30% 34 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Brian Kelleher 0 13 of 23 56% 30 of 54 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:26
Kevin Croom 0 5 of 14 35% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brian Kelleher 38 of 77 49% 25 of 58 12 of 17 1 of 2 25 of 58 3 of 5 10 of 14
Kevin Croom 60 of 174 34% 36 of 141 11 of 16 13 of 17 58 of 168 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brian Kelleher 11 of 29 37% 7 of 24 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0
Kevin Croom 33 of 88 37% 17 of 68 6 of 8 10 of 12 32 of 84 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Brian Kelleher 14 of 25 56% 8 of 15 5 of 8 1 of 2 12 of 23 0 of 0 2 of 2
Kevin Croom 22 of 72 30% 14 of 61 5 of 7 3 of 4 22 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brian Kelleher 13 of 23 56% 10 of 19 3 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 2 8 of 12
Kevin Croom 5 of 14 35% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Croom

Big Brady notes the significant age and reach advantage for Croom, who is 26 and has a 5-inch reach edge. He praises Croom's wrestling and grappling, and expects him to exploit Kelleher's 59% takedown defense. He predicts Croom will win a decision, though he acknowledges Kelleher is dangerous with submissions off his back.

"i'm going to take gawker monov to win i'm going to take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Cody picks Kakhramonov, highlighting his wrestling, size, and cardio. He notes Kelleher's wrestling won't be effective and Kakhramonov's striking is solid. He expects Kakhramonov to win by decision or TKO. He mentions Kakhramonov's bright future.

"i think the kid has got a bright future and uh this is a good showcase spot for him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher, noting that Croom took the fight on two weeks' notice and tends to fade as fights progress. He acknowledges Croom's dangerous guillotine early, but believes Kelleher's durability and cardio will allow him to take over in later rounds. Levi also mentions Kelleher's improved grappling, as seen in his last fight against Domingo Pilarte where he used takedowns to control the fight.

"give me brian kelleher to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

The host picks Brian Kelleher, citing his veteran experience and takedown defense against the grappler Kakaromanov. He expects Kelleher to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually knocking out Kakaromanov. The host notes Kakaromanov's striking is still developing and that Kelleher's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Under 2.5 rounds at even money mentioned as a good spot.
"i'm going with kelleher i don't mind the under two and a half either around even money i think that's a damn good spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Kakhramonov, citing his impressive debut, wrestling base, and size advantage. He notes Kelleher's path is a guillotine, but Kakhramonov's wrestling should nullify that. He expects Kakhramonov to win via decision or late TKO. He calls -155 a fair price.

"i think he wins here and i think minus 155 is a pretty fair price to pay"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Croom

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Croom (Saidyokub Kakhramonov) to win by third-round submission. He trusts Croom's stand-up and grappling awareness, noting that he handled Trevin Jones well and has good takedown defense. He believes Kelleher will struggle to get takedowns and will slow down as the fight goes on, leading to a desperate shot that Croom will capitalize on with a guillotine or D'Arce choke. He predicts Croom will defend takedowns early, then submit Kelleher in the third round.

"i'm gonna go with a third round submission win for say you could cut ramonov"
LOSS vs Alex Caceres
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Feb 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Caceres 0 48 of 68 70% 97 of 121 1 of 1 100% 1 1 3:44
Kevin Croom 0 16 of 51 31% 26 of 67 1 of 16 6% 0 1 7:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Caceres 0 18 of 28 64% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
Kevin Croom 0 7 of 22 31% 8 of 23 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:36
2 Alex Caceres 0 8 of 11 72% 26 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Kevin Croom 0 5 of 8 62% 11 of 18 1 of 6 16% 0 0 4:16
3 Alex Caceres 0 22 of 29 75% 48 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:09
Kevin Croom 0 4 of 21 19% 7 of 26 0 of 3 0% 0 1 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Caceres 48 of 68 70% 33 of 49 11 of 13 4 of 6 30 of 46 12 of 14 6 of 8
Kevin Croom 16 of 51 31% 10 of 44 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 46 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Caceres 18 of 28 64% 9 of 16 7 of 8 2 of 4 11 of 18 3 of 4 4 of 6
Kevin Croom 7 of 22 31% 1 of 15 1 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 20 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Alex Caceres 8 of 11 72% 6 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 6 4 of 5 0 of 0
Kevin Croom 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Alex Caceres 22 of 29 75% 18 of 25 3 of 3 1 of 1 15 of 22 5 of 5 2 of 2
Kevin Croom 4 of 21 19% 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Croom

Big Brady picks Kevin Croom to win by submission, calling it an upset. He thinks Croom will be more aggressive, throw harder shots, and have higher volume. He notes Croom can take Caceres' back standing and take the fight to the mat, where Caceres has been submitted six times. He compares Croom favorably to Chase Hooper, who was a favorite against Caceres. He believes the line at +175 is off and that Caceres should not be a -210 favorite.

submission win for Croom
"i'm going to take kevin croom to win by submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alex Caceres

Daniel Levi picks Alex Caceres, citing his experience and level of competition. He notes Croom's win over Roosevelt Roberts was more about Roberts not being ready, and that Croom has a ugly, lunge-heavy style. Levi believes Caceres' striking edge and movement will allow him to pick Croom apart over three rounds, and that Croom's recent win is overrated.

"I think alex caceres is gonna win this fight man i like kevin croom... but i think bruce leroy is just going to touch him up for three rounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Croom

Croom's pressure and pace will not allow Caceres to operate at his preferred kicking range. Croom has solid cardio, good volume, and a strong clinch game. Caceres struggles when pressured, and Croom's takedowns and forward movement should earn him a decision. The line is moving down, indicating value.

"i'm on the kevin chrome train here i think that he even springs the uh the upset via decision here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Alex Caceres

The MMA Guru picks Alex Caceres, believing his UFC experience against higher-level competition gives him the edge. He expects Croom to start fast and fade, allowing Caceres to take over in the later rounds for a 29-28 decision. He notes the odds are tempting for Croom but sticks with Caceres as the winner, though he acknowledges Caceres should not be such a heavy favorite.

"i think caceres is a little bit underrated... i think caceres wins so i'm not going to pick the dog"
No Contest (overturned) R1 0:31 · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Sep 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Croom 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Roosevelt Roberts 1 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Croom 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Roosevelt Roberts 1 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Croom 2 of 5 40% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 5 of 6 83% 2 of 2 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Croom 2 of 5 40% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 5 of 6 83% 2 of 2 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

Big Brady picks Roosevelt Roberts, noting that Roberts has a length advantage on the feet and a good submission game. He expects Frevola to take Roberts down and control him, but Roberts is slick on the ground and could get a reversal or submission. He predicts Roberts by decision, as long as he stays out of a submission.

possible bet
"give me matt for vol to win this fight um maybe a possible bet as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)

The host favors Frevola's superior wrestling and overall game, believing he can take Roberts down repeatedly and wear him out. He notes Roberts has fast hands but poor takedown defense, and Frevola has power in his hands as well. He expects Frevola to win a decision or possibly get a finish, and considers him one of his stronger leans on the card.

Frevola by decision
"I do like for vola in this spot i do like that the odds again slightly better"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

The MMA Guru picks Roosevelt Roberts but is hesitant, noting that Matt Frevola puts heavy pressure and shoots many takedowns. However, he believes Roberts has improved dramatically, is younger, and has shown confidence in his stand-up against Brock Weaver. He expects Roberts to survive early scrambles and take over in the second and third rounds, winning a close 29-28 unanimous decision.

If odds shift, maybe bet on Frevola as underdog.
"i am going to pick him to win because i genuinely think he's going to go out there and get it done he's the younger guy he's improving so dramatically"
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Croom

Big Brady notes the significant age and reach advantage for Croom, who is 26 and has a 5-inch reach edge. He praises Croom's wrestling and grappling, and expects him to exploit Kelleher's 59% takedown defense. He predicts Croom will win a decision, though he acknowledges Kelleher is dangerous with submissions off his back.

"i'm going to take gawker monov to win i'm going to take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Cody picks Kakhramonov, highlighting his wrestling, size, and cardio. He notes Kelleher's wrestling won't be effective and Kakhramonov's striking is solid. He expects Kakhramonov to win by decision or TKO. He mentions Kakhramonov's bright future.

"i think the kid has got a bright future and uh this is a good showcase spot for him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher, noting that Croom took the fight on two weeks' notice and tends to fade as fights progress. He acknowledges Croom's dangerous guillotine early, but believes Kelleher's durability and cardio will allow him to take over in later rounds. Levi also mentions Kelleher's improved grappling, as seen in his last fight against Domingo Pilarte where he used takedowns to control the fight.

"give me brian kelleher to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Brian Kelleher

The host picks Brian Kelleher, citing his veteran experience and takedown defense against the grappler Kakaromanov. He expects Kelleher to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually knocking out Kakaromanov. The host notes Kakaromanov's striking is still developing and that Kelleher's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Under 2.5 rounds at even money mentioned as a good spot.
"i'm going with kelleher i don't mind the under two and a half either around even money i think that's a damn good spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul picks Kakhramonov, citing his impressive debut, wrestling base, and size advantage. He notes Kelleher's path is a guillotine, but Kakhramonov's wrestling should nullify that. He expects Kakhramonov to win via decision or late TKO. He calls -155 a fair price.

"i think he wins here and i think minus 155 is a pretty fair price to pay"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Croom

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Croom (Saidyokub Kakhramonov) to win by third-round submission. He trusts Croom's stand-up and grappling awareness, noting that he handled Trevin Jones well and has good takedown defense. He believes Kelleher will struggle to get takedowns and will slow down as the fight goes on, leading to a desperate shot that Croom will capitalize on with a guillotine or D'Arce choke. He predicts Croom will defend takedowns early, then submit Kelleher in the third round.

"i'm gonna go with a third round submission win for say you could cut ramonov"