UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze
Age 36
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 39
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - T.J. Brown
3.37 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.89 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
3.41 TD Avg
57.0% TD Acc.
36.0% TD Def.
1.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Charles Rosa
3.08 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
3.86 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
1.67 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
38.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
T.J. Brown - Fight History
LOSS vs Darren Elkins
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:23 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 11 of 33 33% 95 of 146 5 of 8 62% 2 1 8:09
T.J. Brown 0 15 of 50 30% 45 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 11 18% 53 of 80 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:32
T.J. Brown 0 4 of 13 30% 11 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
2 Darren Elkins 0 7 of 16 43% 28 of 43 3 of 5 60% 0 1 2:49
T.J. Brown 0 9 of 29 31% 32 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:44
3 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 6 33% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:48
T.J. Brown 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 11 of 33 33% 8 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 1 11 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 15 of 50 30% 11 of 45 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 2 of 11 18% 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 4 of 13 30% 2 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Darren Elkins 7 of 16 43% 4 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 9 of 29 31% 7 of 26 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Darren Elkins 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Angelo leans T.J. Brown despite his suspect takedown defense and chin, because he believes Brown's pressure and grappling will be enough to outwork the aging Elkins. He notes Brown has never been knocked out and expects him to win, but he wants to wait for the line to tighten before betting.

"I am fairly confident that TJ is going to be able to win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins for the upset by third-round finish. He notes T.J. Brown has poor fight IQ and takedown defense, and often makes mistakes. He worries about Elkins' age and recent injuries but expects Brown to gas out or make a mistake, allowing Elkins to take over late.

Elkins by finish in round 3
"I'm going to pick Darren alkins for the up set I think TJ Brown probably looks really good early but in TJ Brown fashion I expect him to make a mistake as the fight goes on or gas out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins, arguing that Brown has a history of losing when favored and that Elkins finds ways to win. He notes that Brown fades in later rounds and has poor takedown defense, while Elkins has a grinding style and excellent cardio. Cody believes Elkins can take Brown down and wear him out, especially after the first round.

Live bet on Elkins after first round
"I got Elkins he's the underdog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The host picks T.J. Brown to win inside the distance, expecting him to bite down on his mouthpiece and land big shots early. He notes Brown's speed and power advantage over the aging Elkins, and suggests avoiding the moneyline in favor of the plus money prop. He predicts a first-round stoppage.

Brown wins inside distance +165
"taking him to win inside the distance at plus 165 probably a good way of taking this chalky spot and making a plus money spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins, citing his toughness and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Brown has a fast start but fades, and that Elkins has fought much tougher competition. Paul believes Elkins' wrestling and cardio will be too much for Brown, and that Elkins can survive the early storm and take over.

Bet Darren Elkins at +160
"I've got Darren Elkins plus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown over Darren Elkins. He praises Brown's performance against Bill Algeo despite the loss, and notes Brown trains with Bryce Mitchell in grappling, so he won't be outwrestled. He criticizes Elkins as a geriatric old man at 39 who has taken too much damage, citing his loss to Jonathan Pearce. He believes Brown is in his prime and can go three hard rounds, winning by decision or big shots.

"I'm going to go TJ Brown over Darren Elkins nothing personal against Darren Elkins but he fights like a geriatric old man these days"
LOSS vs Bill Algeo
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:40 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bill Algeo 1 64 of 110 58% 77 of 123 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:42
T.J. Brown 0 46 of 91 50% 49 of 94 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bill Algeo 0 45 of 85 52% 48 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
T.J. Brown 0 39 of 77 50% 42 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
2 Bill Algeo 1 19 of 25 76% 29 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:39
T.J. Brown 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bill Algeo 64 of 110 58% 44 of 81 6 of 13 14 of 16 48 of 94 5 of 5 11 of 11
T.J. Brown 46 of 91 50% 34 of 78 8 of 9 4 of 4 33 of 76 13 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bill Algeo 45 of 85 52% 26 of 59 6 of 12 13 of 14 43 of 83 2 of 2 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 39 of 77 50% 28 of 65 8 of 9 3 of 3 27 of 64 12 of 13 0 of 0
2 Bill Algeo 19 of 25 76% 18 of 22 0 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 11 3 of 3 11 of 11
T.J. Brown 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Angelo picks T.J. Brown as an underdog, citing his high pace, solid striking, and good grappling with almost 4 takedowns per fight. He notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (38%) and that Algeo doesn't use his wrestling offensively. He expects Brown to get takedowns, set the pace, and win a decision. He has a quarter-unit bet on Brown at +140.

quarter unit moneyline bet at +140
"I see TJ getting the takedown set in the pace riding it out on top and getting the win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes Algeo's poor takedown defense but excellent get-up game and scrambling. He expects Brown to have early success with takedowns but tire, allowing Algeo to take over and potentially submit him, as Brown has been submitted before.

submission
"give me algo give me algo by sub I think he finishes Brown later in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Cody notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (55%) but his cardio and BJJ are excellent. He expects Brown to get early takedowns but fade, allowing Algeo to take over with volume. He sees Algeo winning by decision or late stoppage.

Live bet after first round if Brown takes Algeo down
"bill ljo again and we've mentioned this about a lot of other fights on this card excellent live betting opportunity"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Algeo's strong start doesn't walk him into danger and that Algeo's pressure and range control will allow him to rack up damage early. He also mentions Algeo's height advantage and active kicking game.

"Yeah, I agree. It feels like the kind of fight where Algeo starting strong doesn't walk him into anything dangerous enough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Algeo's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability will be too much for Brown. Brown's path to victory is grappling, but Algeo is hard to hold down and creates scrambles. Algeo's cardio and striking volume should win rounds. Expect a decision, as both are durable and finishes are unlikely.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I think algo wins this fight I think the best way to approach it though could possibly be the over two and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Algeo's cardio and Jiu-Jitsu. He thinks Brown's wrestling will be effective early but he'll tire, and Algeo will take over in later rounds.

"yeah that all makes sense to me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo, citing his unorthodox striking, length, and takedown defense (55%). He believes Algeo will keep the fight standing and outpoint Brown, who relies on wrestling. He notes Brown's recent win over Eric Silva but thinks Algeo's tricky style and output will edge a close fight.

"give me senor Perfecto Bill algio to get the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Zane picks Algeo because he starts strong and puts too much information into TJ Brown's computer for him to adjust in time. He notes Algeo's hyper-aggressive style, good kicking game, and height advantage, and believes Brown's slow starts will cost him.

"I am going to pick Algeo here. I just think he is going to start too strong and put too much information in the TJ Brown computer for him to make the necessary adjustments in time."
WIN vs Erik Silva
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:41 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 0 24 of 38 63% 82 of 109 2 of 7 28% 1 2 9:43
Erik Silva 0 21 of 29 72% 32 of 42 3 of 4 75% 0 1 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 10 of 14 71% 21 of 29 1 of 6 16% 0 1 3:01
Erik Silva 0 9 of 11 81% 14 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:35
2 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 14 50% 36 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:14
Erik Silva 0 10 of 15 66% 14 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
3 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 10 70% 25 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:28
Erik Silva 0 2 of 3 66% 4 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 24 of 38 63% 20 of 33 4 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 25 6 of 7 5 of 6
Erik Silva 21 of 29 72% 12 of 19 6 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 20 7 of 7 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 10 of 14 71% 8 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8 5 of 6 0 of 0
Erik Silva 9 of 11 81% 5 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Erik Silva 10 of 15 66% 6 of 10 2 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 T.J. Brown 7 of 10 70% 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 6
Erik Silva 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Angelo picks Erik Silva because he believes Silva's grappling pressure and control will be too much for T.J. Brown. He notes that Brown has poor takedown defense (41%) and makes poor decisions in fights, creating scrambles he can't win. Silva is an aggressive grappler who marches forward and looks to get the fight to the ground, where he controls opponents. Angelo expects Silva to bully Brown and win via control.

"I like Eric to bully in this fight I like him to get it to the ground and I like him to control his way to a win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Big Brady picks Erik Silva, citing Silva's impressive grappling and ground-and-pound, while criticizing T.J. Brown's poor fight IQ and lackluster performances. He notes Silva has faced weaker competition but Brown has been knocked out and submitted multiple times. He expects Silva to catch Brown in a submission in the second round, but admits he is not very confident.

Silva wins by second round submission
"I gotta go Silva here um I like the grappling of silver the ground a pound of Silva TJ Brown's been knocked out three times he's been submitted three times I think Silva eventually catches him in something in the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Cody leans Silva, citing his explosiveness and power. He notes Brown's cardio and durability issues, and that Brown may tire himself out with takedowns. He thinks Silva can exploit Brown's low hands and lack of head movement. He suggests under 1.5 rounds as a prop.

Under 1.5 rounds (+145)
"I'll probably get some of this like plus 145 to the under one and a half I'll pick Silva"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Daniel Levi picks Erik Silva, despite Silva's untested competition. He criticizes T.J. Brown for being prone to getting dropped and submitted, calling him 'not the brightest.' Levi likes Silva's size, ground-and-pound, elbows, and kicks. He notes Silva has been past the first round before. While he wishes he knew more about Silva, he trusts him over Brown, who he says will likely get dropped and choked out.

"I think TJ Brown's gonna do good and then he's gonna get dropped and choked out so I'm gonna go with Eric Silver to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
T.J. Brown

Lock favors T.J. Brown because he is more proven and represents a step up in competition for Erik Silva. He notes that Silva has only finishes on his regional record but may falter against decent competition, showing cardio issues or being unable to handle being the nail instead of the hammer. Lock does not have a bet on it himself, as he doesn't see Brown as super reliable, but from a narrative and PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks Brown has the edge.

"I like the TJ Brown side here I don't have a bet on it I don't want to bet it myself like I've never really seen TJ Brown as a super reliable fighter but just taking The Narrative of him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Paul leans Silva, noting Brown's inconsistency and the turmoil at Glory MMA. He thinks Silva's power and explosiveness could be the difference, but acknowledges it's a coin flip. He is not confident and considers it a pass for now.

"I'm gonna just uh it's basically a pass for now but I'm gonna lean towards Silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erik Silva

The MMA Guru picks Erik Silva over T.J. Brown, arguing that Silva is a step above bottom-level UFC featherweights and has shown good potential. He criticizes Brown for only beating very low-level opponents and barely scraping by, while Silva is more experienced and has a good record. He predicts a decision win for Silva.

"I'm gonna go Eric still for getting this one done I think he's going to beat TJ Brown up"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 47 of 79 59% 86 of 121 3 of 6 50% 0 2 7:32
T.J. Brown 0 42 of 99 42% 58 of 125 1 of 2 50% 4 2 2:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 22 of 42 52% 30 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:17
T.J. Brown 0 24 of 49 48% 29 of 55 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:05
2 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 5 of 8 62% 17 of 20 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:47
T.J. Brown 0 2 of 9 22% 7 of 20 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:39
3 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 20 of 29 68% 39 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:28
T.J. Brown 0 16 of 41 39% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 2 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 47 of 79 59% 41 of 73 1 of 1 5 of 5 32 of 61 2 of 2 13 of 16
T.J. Brown 42 of 99 42% 30 of 86 9 of 10 3 of 3 36 of 92 3 of 3 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 22 of 42 52% 18 of 38 0 of 0 4 of 4 17 of 37 2 of 2 3 of 3
T.J. Brown 24 of 49 48% 15 of 39 6 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 45 3 of 3 1 of 1
2 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6
T.J. Brown 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 20 of 29 68% 19 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 22 0 of 0 6 of 7
T.J. Brown 16 of 41 39% 13 of 38 3 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 38 0 of 0 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Angelo picks T.J. Brown, believing he can win either the grappling or kickboxing exchanges. He notes both fighters have poor takedown defense, so the fight may come down to who shoots first. He worries about Brown's defensive wrestling but expects Brown to initiate and get takedowns, leading to a win.

"i think tj brown gets it done i think he can win the grappling match or the kickboxing match here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by first-round submission. He believes Brown's grappling is superior and that Nuerdanbieke is one-dimensional (wrestling only) with poor takedown defense (33%) and has been submitted six times. He notes Brown's submission skills (arm triangle) and that he nearly submitted Charles Rosa. He warns that Brown's fight IQ and cardio are questionable, but expects an early submission. He calls it a bad matchup for Nuerdanbieke.

Brown wins by submission in round 1
"i think tj brown subs this guy and does it probably early on... i'll say tj brown first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody thinks Brown is the better wrestler and grappler, and has a striking advantage. He notes Nuerdanbieke's poor striking and inability to finish takedowns. He expects Brown to win by decision.

"i got to go tj brown to land the more eye-catching moments and secure himself a decision victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Paul agrees, pointing out Nuerdanbieke's low output and poor takedown stats. He thinks Brown's pressure and striking will look better to the judges.

"i mean those stats for land pretty embarrassing against a guy like sean soriano"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The host picks T.J. Brown, citing his training with Bryce Mitchell as beneficial for grappling. He believes Brown will stuff takedowns as Shayilan slows down, and win the second and third rounds via decision. He notes Shayilan's wins are not impressive and he lost clearly to Joshua Culibao.

unanimous decision 29-28 prediction
"i'm gonna go with tj brown here"
WIN vs Charles Rosa
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 0 58 of 99 58% 88 of 141 6 of 8 75% 3 2 7:39
Charles Rosa 0 46 of 107 42% 71 of 132 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 35 of 67 52% 38 of 70 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:36
Charles Rosa 0 34 of 73 46% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 T.J. Brown 0 16 of 23 69% 29 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 2 3:34
Charles Rosa 0 9 of 24 37% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
3 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 9 77% 21 of 28 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:29
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 10 30% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 58 of 99 58% 46 of 85 10 of 12 2 of 2 49 of 87 2 of 5 7 of 7
Charles Rosa 46 of 107 42% 21 of 76 5 of 10 20 of 21 42 of 99 1 of 2 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 35 of 67 52% 26 of 56 8 of 10 1 of 1 31 of 60 2 of 5 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 34 of 73 46% 14 of 49 5 of 9 15 of 15 34 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 16 of 23 69% 14 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 9 of 24 37% 4 of 17 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 T.J. Brown 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.

"give me tj brown as far as a dog pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.

"laying minus 280 on t.j brown it's too much risky risky risky biz man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.

possible finish
"i still am picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.

"i'm gonna go with gabrielle benitez and i'll take him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.

Rosa by submission (if prop becomes available)
"i think it's dog or pass here a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.

"i'm gonna trust gabriel benitez to get this one done i think he's just that next step up in competition"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 1 61 of 128 47% 85 of 155 1 of 1 100% 0 0 5:38
Kai Kamaka III 0 82 of 211 38% 110 of 243 2 of 4 50% 1 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 22 of 47 46% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Kai Kamaka III 0 34 of 88 38% 35 of 91 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 T.J. Brown 1 26 of 49 53% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Kai Kamaka III 0 24 of 69 34% 40 of 87 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:25
3 T.J. Brown 0 13 of 32 40% 22 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:09
Kai Kamaka III 0 24 of 54 44% 35 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 61 of 128 47% 38 of 100 14 of 17 9 of 11 51 of 115 1 of 1 9 of 12
Kai Kamaka III 82 of 211 38% 54 of 174 19 of 26 9 of 11 77 of 204 3 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 22 of 47 46% 11 of 34 4 of 4 7 of 9 18 of 43 1 of 1 3 of 3
Kai Kamaka III 34 of 88 38% 17 of 63 9 of 15 8 of 10 33 of 85 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 26 of 49 53% 18 of 40 7 of 8 1 of 1 20 of 40 0 of 0 6 of 9
Kai Kamaka III 24 of 69 34% 19 of 63 5 of 6 0 of 0 24 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 T.J. Brown 13 of 32 40% 9 of 26 3 of 5 1 of 1 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kai Kamaka III 24 of 54 44% 18 of 48 5 of 5 1 of 1 20 of 50 2 of 2 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by decision, taking a shot on the underdog. He believes Brown's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Brown can take Kamaka down and wear him out. Brady notes that Kamaka slows down as fights progress and has poor grappling off his back. He also mentions Brown's full training camp at Glory MMA with James Krause, which he sees as a positive. Brady thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.

decision win for Brown
"i'm going to take a shot on the dog here i'm going to take tj brown to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody sees T.J. Brown as a live underdog now that he is training with James Krause at Glory MMA. He notes that Brown has a submission game and grappling prowess, but his cardio is a major concern. He thinks if Brown uses a proper game plan and doesn't gas out, he can take down Kamaka and submit him. He points out that Kamaka has looked unimpressive, with losses to low-level opponents and a close win over Tony Kelley. He believes Krause's coaching can help Brown manage his energy and fight smart.

"so uh again i'm going to classify him as live underdog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win, citing his potential as a prospect and the fact that T.J. Brown has a weak chin and poor fight IQ. He notes that Kamaka's last loss was on short notice with a bad weight cut, and that he has since moved to a better training camp. Levi believes Kamaka can outwork Brown if he stays off his back.

"i'm going to pick kakamaka to get this win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
T.J. Brown

The host picks T.J. Brown by submission, expecting him to take down Kai Kamaka and wear him out. He notes Kamaka's poor cardio and lack of power, while Brown is a grappler who can chain wrestle. He believes Brown will eventually find a submission in the second or third round.

T.J. Brown by submission at +525; also mentions Brown inside the distance at +335 and round 3 prop at +1500
"I like tj brown i think he's gonna outlast kai kamaka hopefully he stretches it all the way to the third round and chokes him up there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' cardio issues and the difficulty in capping the fight. He mentions that Brown's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early, and that Kamaka has looked poor. He does not commit to a side.

"this one's very difficult to cap because they both got bad cardio so it's like who's bad cardio is going to cost them the fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III over T.J. Brown, noting that Kamaka is younger and more committed to his career, while Brown has been beaten eight times and seems to be Bryce Mitchell's sparring partner. He expects Brown to get takedowns in the first round but fade in the later rounds, allowing Kamaka to win the last two rounds and take a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going to be going with kakamaka here he made a mistake in his last fight i feel like he's going to bounce back from that"
LOSS vs Danny Chavez
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danny Chavez 0 43 of 139 30% 59 of 156 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:03
T.J. Brown 0 49 of 110 44% 52 of 113 4 of 4 100% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danny Chavez 0 12 of 42 28% 12 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
T.J. Brown 0 17 of 36 47% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Danny Chavez 0 12 of 45 26% 18 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
T.J. Brown 0 20 of 43 46% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
3 Danny Chavez 0 19 of 52 36% 29 of 62 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:51
T.J. Brown 0 12 of 31 38% 12 of 31 4 of 4 100% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danny Chavez 43 of 139 30% 25 of 103 12 of 24 6 of 12 38 of 132 5 of 7 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 49 of 110 44% 23 of 81 8 of 9 18 of 20 40 of 97 0 of 0 9 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danny Chavez 12 of 42 28% 4 of 29 5 of 9 3 of 4 12 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 17 of 36 47% 4 of 21 1 of 2 12 of 13 17 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Danny Chavez 12 of 45 26% 7 of 33 3 of 5 2 of 7 12 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 20 of 43 46% 13 of 35 4 of 4 3 of 4 14 of 35 0 of 0 6 of 8
3 Danny Chavez 19 of 52 36% 14 of 41 4 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 45 5 of 7 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 12 of 31 38% 6 of 25 3 of 3 3 of 3 9 of 27 0 of 0 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady likes T.J. Brown's wrestling and ground game, expecting him to dominate and possibly get a submission. He notes Brown's chin is a concern but thinks Chavez's ground game is inferior. He would bet if the line gets closer.

first round submission
"i'm going to pick tj brown to win by first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Danny Chavez

Daniel Levi picks Danny Chavez by finish. He notes that T.J. Brown has durability issues, often getting knocked out or submitted even when winning. He believes Chavez's black belt is legit and that he can catch Brown. However, he admits he knows little about Chavez beyond a head-kick knockout and a photo with a black belt. He feels Brown is mentally fragile and prone to getting finished.

Chavez by finish; Brown's durability is questionable; Chavez's black belt is legit
"i have a feeling that he is going to get a knockout i feel like tj brown just can't keep it together ... i'll take chavez by finish"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown, citing his dangerous grappling and training with Bryce Mitchell. He expects Chavez to come out overzealous looking for a quick finish, which will allow Brown to secure a takedown and control the fight on the ground.

"tj downtown brown dangerous grappler danny chavez explosive knockout striker ... tj downtown brown is gonna take danny chavez downtown"
LOSS vs Jordan Griffin
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Feb 29, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Griffin 0 15 of 23 65% 20 of 28 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:05
T.J. Brown 0 32 of 47 68% 91 of 119 7 of 7 100% 0 0 7:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Griffin 0 5 of 8 62% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:05
T.J. Brown 0 18 of 24 75% 56 of 70 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:30
2 Jordan Griffin 0 10 of 15 66% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
T.J. Brown 0 14 of 23 60% 35 of 49 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Griffin 15 of 23 65% 13 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 17 3 of 3 3 of 3
T.J. Brown 32 of 47 68% 26 of 39 6 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 22 10 of 10 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Griffin 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 18 of 24 75% 13 of 18 5 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 6 7 of 7 9 of 11
2 Jordan Griffin 10 of 15 66% 8 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 10 2 of 2 3 of 3
T.J. Brown 14 of 23 60% 13 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 16 3 of 3 4 of 4
Charles Rosa - Fight History
LOSS vs Nathaniel Wood
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 97 of 159 61% 102 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 167 30% 54 of 170 2 of 9 22% 1 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 39 of 62 62% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Charles Rosa 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:42
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 31 of 51 60% 31 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Charles Rosa 0 12 of 42 28% 12 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 27 of 46 58% 28 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
Charles Rosa 0 14 of 62 22% 17 of 65 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 97 of 159 61% 62 of 111 4 of 13 31 of 35 87 of 144 5 of 7 5 of 8
Charles Rosa 51 of 167 30% 21 of 120 18 of 29 12 of 18 43 of 156 6 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 39 of 62 62% 27 of 44 3 of 7 9 of 11 38 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 25 of 63 39% 9 of 43 10 of 13 6 of 7 22 of 59 2 of 3 1 of 1
2 Nathaniel Wood 31 of 51 60% 18 of 33 1 of 4 12 of 14 26 of 43 1 of 2 4 of 6
Charles Rosa 12 of 42 28% 6 of 29 2 of 5 4 of 8 11 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 27 of 46 58% 17 of 34 0 of 2 10 of 10 23 of 40 3 of 4 1 of 2
Charles Rosa 14 of 62 22% 6 of 48 6 of 11 2 of 3 10 of 56 3 of 5 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Wood's 75% takedown defense and high volume of strikes, while Charles Rosa is a BJJ specialist who struggles when taken down. He mentions the Casey Kenny loss as a concern but still believes Wood gets it done and will be a parlay piece.

likely parlay piece
"i still think wood gets it done and he is likely a parlay piece so nathaniel wood probably going to be the first leg of one of my parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He notes Wood is moving up in weight but has a massive speed and volume advantage on the feet. Rosa's path to victory is a submission off his back, but Wood has good takedown defense. Rosa is tough to finish, so Wood wins a decision.

Wood by decision
"give me nathaniel wood nathaniel wood to win by a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, noting he can win wherever the fight goes. He highlights Wood's superior boxing, volume, and footwork. Cody thinks Rosa's only chance is a fluke submission, but Wood's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"i think nathaniel wood can win the fight however he wants"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel Levi picks Nathaniel Wood, citing a massive speed advantage and excellent leg kicks. He notes that Charles Rosa is slow, hittable, and easy to take down. Levi warns that Wood should avoid getting caught in a submission or cut, but overall sees this as a good introductory fight for Wood at featherweight.

"i think he's got a massive speed advantage here he's got some of the best leg kicks abandoned weight now he's moving up to featherweight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the better striker and should touch Rosa up from the outside. Rosa is durable and has good submission defense, but Wood can win a decision. The move up to 145 is a concern, but Rosa isn't a grappler who will exploit the size gap. Wood glides to a decision.

"wood will be the pick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Nathaniel Wood, stating he should cruise. He notes Rosa flops to his back and Wood can box him up. Paul thinks Wood's volume and striking are superior. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"nathaniel wood should absolutely cruise here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru confidently picks Nathaniel Wood to win by TKO in the second round. He praises Wood's takedown defense, leg kicks, and speed. Charles Rosa is 35 and hasn't looked good recently. Wood will chop at the legs, stuff takedowns, and eventually brutalize Rosa for a TKO finish.

second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nathaniel wood getting this one done and i think he gets it done by tko in the second round"
LOSS vs T.J. Brown
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 0 58 of 99 58% 88 of 141 6 of 8 75% 3 2 7:39
Charles Rosa 0 46 of 107 42% 71 of 132 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 35 of 67 52% 38 of 70 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:36
Charles Rosa 0 34 of 73 46% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 T.J. Brown 0 16 of 23 69% 29 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 2 3:34
Charles Rosa 0 9 of 24 37% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
3 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 9 77% 21 of 28 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:29
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 10 30% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 58 of 99 58% 46 of 85 10 of 12 2 of 2 49 of 87 2 of 5 7 of 7
Charles Rosa 46 of 107 42% 21 of 76 5 of 10 20 of 21 42 of 99 1 of 2 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 35 of 67 52% 26 of 56 8 of 10 1 of 1 31 of 60 2 of 5 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 34 of 73 46% 14 of 49 5 of 9 15 of 15 34 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 16 of 23 69% 14 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 9 of 24 37% 4 of 17 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 T.J. Brown 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.

"give me tj brown as far as a dog pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.

"laying minus 280 on t.j brown it's too much risky risky risky biz man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.

possible finish
"i still am picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.

"i'm gonna go with gabrielle benitez and i'll take him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.

Rosa by submission (if prop becomes available)
"i think it's dog or pass here a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.

"i'm gonna trust gabriel benitez to get this one done i think he's just that next step up in competition"
LOSS vs Damon Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 34 of 87 39% 116 of 181 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:18
Charles Rosa 0 41 of 87 47% 53 of 101 6 of 12 50% 2 3 10:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 22 of 61 36% 30 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 19 of 47 40% 24 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:41
2 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 22 36% 27 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Charles Rosa 0 19 of 37 51% 26 of 45 4 of 8 50% 1 1 4:05
3 Damon Jackson 0 4 of 4 100% 59 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:12
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 1 of 1 100% 1 2 3:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 34 of 87 39% 17 of 66 4 of 8 13 of 13 26 of 76 5 of 8 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 41 of 87 47% 33 of 77 6 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 58 3 of 3 18 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 22 of 61 36% 8 of 46 4 of 5 10 of 10 18 of 55 4 of 6 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 19 of 47 40% 15 of 42 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 37 3 of 3 7 of 7
2 Damon Jackson 8 of 22 36% 5 of 16 0 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 19 of 37 51% 15 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 20 0 of 0 9 of 17
3 Damon Jackson 4 of 4 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson despite stats favoring Charles Rosa. He likes Jackson's will, determination, and willingness to scrap. He thinks Jackson's fight IQ and grappling can survive Rosa's jiu-jitsu, and his striking could catch Rosa. He also placed a bet on Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at plus 125 as a Hail Mary submission play.

Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at +125 (0.5 units)
"I did um Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action. So, Charles Rosa can pull off a submission, I'll get paid. If Charles Rosa loses, a could be a murdering of a decision or even wins a decision, I …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson, citing Charles Rosa's poor takedown defense and inability to get up. He references Rosa's fights against Bryce Mitchell and Derrick Minor, where they controlled him with takedowns. Brady believes Jackson can implement a similar game plan, taking Rosa down and controlling him for a decision. He notes he would not bet the line at -180/-190, but thinks Jackson can win comfortably via decision.

win by decision
"give me damage jackson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks the underdog Rosa, arguing that Jackson's striking is not elite and Rosa's BJJ and counter-striking could be effective. He notes Rosa's durability and ability to win close fights. He believes the line is too wide and Rosa has a live path to victory via decision or submission.

"i'm gonna go with the underdog charles rosa"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi leans toward Charles Rosa as a dog because he views the fight as a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Rosa's ability to survive submissions and make fights close, but acknowledges his tendency to spend too much time on his back. He expects a close, possibly controversial split decision win for Rosa.

split decision
"i'm gonna lean with charles rosa via close maybe controversial split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jacob leans towards Damon Jackson but is intrigued by Charles Rosa as an underdog at plus 145. He thinks Rosa's grappling is next-level and could cause problems. He expects a close fight and sees Rosa as an interesting underdog play. He would pick Jackson but might bet Rosa.

Charles Rosa at +145 (possible bet)
"I'm kind of leaning towards Rosa for a betting at 145 cuz I think it's a pretty close fight. But if I were to pick, it would probably be Jackson."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The host picks Damon Jackson, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He notes Jackson's excellent cardio and ability to control opponents, while Rosa has good submission defense but may be outgrappled. He predicts a decision win for Jackson, which would be only the second decision of Jackson's career, due to Rosa's durability.

"I do like damon jackson in this fight i do think he has great cardio i do think he has the better jits"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Jackson, citing his better striking and pressure. He notes Rosa's tendency to flop to his back and lack of a striking game plan. He believes Jackson can win on the feet and avoid Rosa's submission threats, though he admits it's not a high-confidence pick.

"damon jackson is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson to win by unanimous decision. He trusts Jackson's defensive grappling and guillotine threats to keep the fight standing, where Jackson has a significant advantage in striking and reach. He dismisses Rosa's striking as poor.

Jackson by unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go with uh damon jackson here over charles roser... i feel like damon jackson wins this one on the feet and i think he wins it by a very lackluster unanimous decision win"
WIN vs Justin Jaynes
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 182 28% 114 of 258 2 of 2 100% 2 1 3:37
Justin Jaynes 0 44 of 92 47% 51 of 101 2 of 2 100% 2 3 2:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 35 of 119 29% 36 of 121 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
2 Charles Rosa 0 3 of 15 20% 57 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:21
Justin Jaynes 0 6 of 12 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 2 1:16
3 Charles Rosa 0 13 of 48 27% 21 of 59 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:49
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 39 48% 22 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 51 of 182 28% 33 of 156 8 of 15 10 of 11 47 of 173 0 of 0 4 of 9
Justin Jaynes 44 of 92 47% 32 of 79 9 of 9 3 of 4 42 of 89 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 35 of 119 29% 22 of 101 5 of 9 8 of 9 34 of 116 0 of 0 1 of 3
Justin Jaynes 19 of 41 46% 13 of 34 3 of 3 3 of 4 19 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 3 of 15 20% 1 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
Justin Jaynes 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Charles Rosa 13 of 48 27% 10 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 4
Justin Jaynes 19 of 39 48% 14 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.

"i think charles rose has the pick here at least for me uh i don't have a bet on it i'm not that confident but i do think charles rose wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.

by submission, third round
"i'm going to take charles rosa to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.

"i gotta make the play on a few of them and i think that styles make fights i've always said that this is this is a style clash that would favor him for a change"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.

"yeah so i have charles rosa listed as submission or decision because it seems like he always gets submissions or he loses decisions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.

Rosa by submission plus 210; Rosa inside the distance plus 145; under 2.5 rounds minus 125
"Charles rosa is actually my locker then i played for this week... I truly believe that justin james is not a ufc caliber fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.

"i'll pick charles rosa but uh losing against men or he uh he lost my trust"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.

first round KO
"i think he's gonna crack charles rosa on the chin and i'm gonna go with justin james with a big upset"
LOSS vs Darrick Minner
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darrick Minner 0 15 of 25 60% 40 of 51 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 45 of 60 75% 96 of 117 4 of 5 80% 3 0 12:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darrick Minner 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 23 of 35 65% 49 of 66 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:03
2 Darrick Minner 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 15 of 16 93% 32 of 33 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:46
3 Darrick Minner 0 7 of 10 70% 20 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 7 of 9 77% 15 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darrick Minner 15 of 25 60% 9 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 4 8 of 17 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 45 of 60 75% 35 of 49 5 of 5 5 of 6 21 of 31 5 of 7 19 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darrick Minner 6 of 11 54% 1 of 4 3 of 3 2 of 4 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 23 of 35 65% 18 of 29 2 of 2 3 of 4 10 of 17 4 of 6 9 of 12
2 Darrick Minner 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 15 of 16 93% 12 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 8
3 Darrick Minner 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 7 of 9 77% 5 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi respects Darrick Minner's 20 first-round submissions and his ability to finish quickly, but notes Charles Rosa has never been submitted and survived deep submission attempts against Yair Rodriguez and Bryce Mitchell. Levi thinks if Minner doesn't get the finish in the first round, Rosa's work rate and kicks will overwhelm Minner in the later rounds. He is hesitant to lay the -200 chalk on Rosa but sees more paths to victory for him.

"if it hits the score cards i think 29 28 rosa if it's a late finish i think rosa if it's an early finish winner so more paths for rosa so i'll take rosa here but i would be a …"
WIN vs Kevin Aguilar
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo · Jun 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 69 of 173 39% 69 of 173 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 53 of 135 39% 53 of 135 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 14 of 37 37% 14 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Rosa 0 22 of 50 44% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 17 of 39 43% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Charles Rosa 0 27 of 67 40% 27 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 22 of 59 37% 22 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 69 of 173 39% 33 of 119 15 of 26 21 of 28 69 of 173 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 53 of 135 39% 34 of 109 17 of 22 2 of 4 50 of 130 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 20 of 56 35% 5 of 34 5 of 9 10 of 13 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 14 of 37 37% 10 of 29 4 of 7 0 of 1 11 of 32 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 22 of 50 44% 10 of 30 6 of 11 6 of 9 22 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 17 of 39 43% 11 of 31 5 of 6 1 of 2 17 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Rosa 27 of 67 40% 18 of 55 4 of 6 5 of 6 27 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 22 of 59 37% 13 of 49 8 of 9 1 of 1 22 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa, noting that he shouldn't be judged by his loss to Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Rosa's jiu-jitsu and striking, recalling that Rosa out-struck Shane Burgos in their fight. He believes Rosa will finish Aguilar by head kick, as Aguilar is coming off a KO loss and a short turnaround.

Rosa wins by KO (head kick)
"Charles Rosa was beating shame Burgos on the feet. He's a jujitsu guy, he was clearly out striking Shane Burgos."
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–24) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 40 of 49 81% 60 of 74 3 of 3 100% 5 0 12:51
Charles Rosa 0 5 of 10 50% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 11 of 13 84% 12 of 14 1 of 1 100% 3 0 3:22
Charles Rosa 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 17 of 21 80% 28 of 32 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:37
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 12 of 15 80% 20 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:52
Charles Rosa 0 1 of 5 20% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 40 of 49 81% 27 of 36 13 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 40 of 46
Charles Rosa 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 11 of 13 84% 8 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 12
Charles Rosa 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Bryce Mitchell 17 of 21 80% 12 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 20
Charles Rosa 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 12 of 15 80% 7 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 14
Charles Rosa 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Rosa vs. Bryce Mitchell

Round 1
Dropping down to the featherweight division, we are treated to a matchup between two solid prospects in American Top Team’s Rosa (12-3, 3-3 UFC) and the undefeated Mitchell (12-0, 3-0 UFC). Our referee for this bout is Keith Peterson, and uncharacteristically he is allowing some nonsense by not wearing a mask. The two elect not to touch gloves to kick off their match, and Mitchell immediately stalks Rosa down against the fence. Rosa tries to keep away and throw kicks, but Mitchell is unconcerned and hits a quick single leg takedown. Mitchell ties up the legs to keep Rosa grounded, and Mitchell circles around to take the back. Rosa spins out but is immediately is in the danger zone. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa’s head is changing colors rapidly and thinks about tapping. Rosa continues to flail and almost taps again, but somehow manages to pull his head free. Mitchell is on him like glue, taking the back before hunting for an arm-triangle choke again. Rosa throws his legs up to hunt for an inverted triangle choke, and Mitchell is unconcerned as he spins free. The ensuing exchange miraculously leads to Mitchell setting up a twister, and the commentary booth is losing it. Rosa struggles, turns and tries to survive, and manages to get out for a moment, only to give it up again. In an impressive showing of submission defense, Rosa pulls his body out but surrenders another arm-triangle choke. This time, it’s tight, and Mitchell squeezes with all he has. Rosa’s head turns red quickly once more, but he powers free and remains on his back. Mitchell tries to set up one last submission, but the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
Rosa opens the round with a few head kicks, and keep Mitchell at bay for a few seconds. “Thug Nasty” gathers his thoughts and shoots in for a takedown, and immediately passes guard and takes three-quarter mount. Rosa is unable to get any offense going as Mitchell nullifies him, and gives up mount as Mitchell tries to set up another arm-triangle. While Mitchell continues to style on Rosa, the commentary booth ponders the true location of Fight Island -- none of them know. Mitchell drops down a few heavy elbows and punches on top, and Rosa uses that aggression against his opponent to pull for a leglock. Mitchell practically ignores it, before stepping back to mount. He steps over to get an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa stays calm and defends it well enough before Mitchell bails to return to mount. Rosa turns over, and Mitchell thinks about taking his back before setting up another twister. This is unquestionably the record for the most twister attempts in a UFC fight before, and this time it’s tight as a drum. Unfortunately for Mitchell, the horn sounds before he can get the tap, but this is all one-way traffic from “Thug Nasty.”

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell

Round 3
Within 15 seconds, Mitchell dives into a takedown and incredibly sets up another twister. Rosa locks his arm up to hold on tight, but Mitchell pulls on the right arm of Rosa to twist him the other direction. Rosa pushes with all his might to get free, and while he gets out of the bad situation, he is still grounded. “Boston Strong” tries to set up a guillotine off his back, and Mitchell thinks about going after a Von Preux choke until thinking about the arm-triangle choke again. The unbeaten fighter chains submission together one after the other, and props to Rosa for surviving, but it is total domination. Rosa gives up his back, defends a choke and rolls back over. Ever vigilant, Mitchell returns to mount before hunting for the arm-triangle once more. Rosa is cursing out Mitchell for “laying on me” but is not showing the defense to get out of harm’s way. Mitchell takes a high mount and thinks about blasting him with a few shots on top, but Rosa rolls out just in time. Mitchell hops out, turns around and dives back in to secure top position. Mitchell rolls through a crucifix, hammers down a few elbows, takes top position with Rosa’s feet trying to kick off the cage. He successfully does so with seconds to spare, but he is spent -- Mitchell crashes forward to strike him and clinch up, but the round, and fight, is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-24 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Charles Rosa via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-24)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his youth, size, and overall superiority on the ground and feet. He downplays Rosa's submission win over Manny Bermudez, calling Bermudez a fraud. He thinks the line at minus 175 is a bit wide and sees little value but still expects Mitchell to win.

Mitchell minus 175; line is a little wide
"I actually like Bryce Mitchell quite a bit here. Uh he's the younger fighter. He's the bigger fighter. I think he's really going to give problems to Rosa um on the ground and on the feet."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Levi slightly leans towards Bryce Mitchell, citing his athleticism and youth. He notes that Mitchell has holes in his game and may fatigue, but Rosa is a finished product who isn't getting better. Levi thinks Mitchell can get the job done by being younger and fresher, possibly with a late finish.

Mitchell by late finish
"I'll slightly lean with Bryce Mitchell because of the athleticism the youth and things among those lines but it would not surprise me at all if Rosa came out here and got the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Matt initially considered Mitchell as a lock but after tape review, he favors Rosa as a live dog. He highlights Rosa's leg kicks, offensive guard, and ability to keep the fight standing, while questioning Mitchell's striking development and the impact of training camps during the pandemic. He picks Rosa by decision.

"I think that Charles Rosa definitely is a live dog... I'm going to say Charles Rosa by decision"
Verbal Submission (armbar) R1 2:46 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Manny Bermudez 0 27 of 38 71% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Manny Bermudez 0 27 of 38 71% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 27 of 38 71% 25 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 26 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 27 of 38 71% 25 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 26 of 32
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.

"give me tj brown as far as a dog pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.

"laying minus 280 on t.j brown it's too much risky risky risky biz man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.

possible finish
"i still am picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
No clear pick

The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.

"i'm gonna go with gabrielle benitez and i'll take him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.

Rosa by submission (if prop becomes available)
"i think it's dog or pass here a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.

"i'm gonna trust gabriel benitez to get this one done i think he's just that next step up in competition"