Career Averages - T.J. Brown
Career Averages - Charles Rosa
T.J. Brown - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 95 of 146 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 8:09 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 45 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 53 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:32 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 28 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 2:49 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 32 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:48 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 11 of 33 | 33% | 8 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 15 of 50 | 30% | 11 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 7 of 16 | 43% | 4 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 9 of 29 | 31% | 7 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans T.J. Brown despite his suspect takedown defense and chin, because he believes Brown's pressure and grappling will be enough to outwork the aging Elkins. He notes Brown has never been knocked out and expects him to win, but he wants to wait for the line to tighten before betting.
Big Brady picks Darren Elkins for the upset by third-round finish. He notes T.J. Brown has poor fight IQ and takedown defense, and often makes mistakes. He worries about Elkins' age and recent injuries but expects Brown to gas out or make a mistake, allowing Elkins to take over late.
Cody picks Elkins, arguing that Brown has a history of losing when favored and that Elkins finds ways to win. He notes that Brown fades in later rounds and has poor takedown defense, while Elkins has a grinding style and excellent cardio. Cody believes Elkins can take Brown down and wear him out, especially after the first round.
The host picks T.J. Brown to win inside the distance, expecting him to bite down on his mouthpiece and land big shots early. He notes Brown's speed and power advantage over the aging Elkins, and suggests avoiding the moneyline in favor of the plus money prop. He predicts a first-round stoppage.
Paul picks Elkins, citing his toughness and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Brown has a fast start but fades, and that Elkins has fought much tougher competition. Paul believes Elkins' wrestling and cardio will be too much for Brown, and that Elkins can survive the early storm and take over.
The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown over Darren Elkins. He praises Brown's performance against Bill Algeo despite the loss, and notes Brown trains with Bryce Mitchell in grappling, so he won't be outwrestled. He criticizes Elkins as a geriatric old man at 39 who has taken too much damage, citing his loss to Jonathan Pearce. He believes Brown is in his prime and can go three hard rounds, winning by decision or big shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 1 | 64 of 110 | 58% | 77 of 123 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 49 of 94 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 45 of 85 | 52% | 48 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 39 of 77 | 50% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 1 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 29 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:39 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 64 of 110 | 58% | 44 of 81 | 6 of 13 | 14 of 16 | 48 of 94 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 11 |
| T.J. Brown | 46 of 91 | 50% | 34 of 78 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 76 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 45 of 85 | 52% | 26 of 59 | 6 of 12 | 13 of 14 | 43 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 39 of 77 | 50% | 28 of 65 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 64 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 19 of 25 | 76% | 18 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 11 |
| T.J. Brown | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks T.J. Brown as an underdog, citing his high pace, solid striking, and good grappling with almost 4 takedowns per fight. He notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (38%) and that Algeo doesn't use his wrestling offensively. He expects Brown to get takedowns, set the pace, and win a decision. He has a quarter-unit bet on Brown at +140.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes Algeo's poor takedown defense but excellent get-up game and scrambling. He expects Brown to have early success with takedowns but tire, allowing Algeo to take over and potentially submit him, as Brown has been submitted before.
Cody notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (55%) but his cardio and BJJ are excellent. He expects Brown to get early takedowns but fade, allowing Algeo to take over with volume. He sees Algeo winning by decision or late stoppage.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Algeo's strong start doesn't walk him into danger and that Algeo's pressure and range control will allow him to rack up damage early. He also mentions Algeo's height advantage and active kicking game.
Algeo's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability will be too much for Brown. Brown's path to victory is grappling, but Algeo is hard to hold down and creates scrambles. Algeo's cardio and striking volume should win rounds. Expect a decision, as both are durable and finishes are unlikely.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Algeo's cardio and Jiu-Jitsu. He thinks Brown's wrestling will be effective early but he'll tire, and Algeo will take over in later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo, citing his unorthodox striking, length, and takedown defense (55%). He believes Algeo will keep the fight standing and outpoint Brown, who relies on wrestling. He notes Brown's recent win over Eric Silva but thinks Algeo's tricky style and output will edge a close fight.
Zane picks Algeo because he starts strong and puts too much information into TJ Brown's computer for him to adjust in time. He notes Algeo's hyper-aggressive style, good kicking game, and height advantage, and believes Brown's slow starts will cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 82 of 109 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 2 | 9:43 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 32 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 21 of 29 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 3:01 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 14 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:35 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 36 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:14 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 14 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 25 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 24 of 38 | 63% | 20 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Erik Silva | 21 of 29 | 72% | 12 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 10 of 14 | 71% | 8 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Erik Silva | 9 of 11 | 81% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Erik Silva | 10 of 15 | 66% | 6 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 10 | 70% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
| Erik Silva | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Erik Silva because he believes Silva's grappling pressure and control will be too much for T.J. Brown. He notes that Brown has poor takedown defense (41%) and makes poor decisions in fights, creating scrambles he can't win. Silva is an aggressive grappler who marches forward and looks to get the fight to the ground, where he controls opponents. Angelo expects Silva to bully Brown and win via control.
Big Brady picks Erik Silva, citing Silva's impressive grappling and ground-and-pound, while criticizing T.J. Brown's poor fight IQ and lackluster performances. He notes Silva has faced weaker competition but Brown has been knocked out and submitted multiple times. He expects Silva to catch Brown in a submission in the second round, but admits he is not very confident.
Cody leans Silva, citing his explosiveness and power. He notes Brown's cardio and durability issues, and that Brown may tire himself out with takedowns. He thinks Silva can exploit Brown's low hands and lack of head movement. He suggests under 1.5 rounds as a prop.
Daniel Levi picks Erik Silva, despite Silva's untested competition. He criticizes T.J. Brown for being prone to getting dropped and submitted, calling him 'not the brightest.' Levi likes Silva's size, ground-and-pound, elbows, and kicks. He notes Silva has been past the first round before. While he wishes he knew more about Silva, he trusts him over Brown, who he says will likely get dropped and choked out.
Lock favors T.J. Brown because he is more proven and represents a step up in competition for Erik Silva. He notes that Silva has only finishes on his regional record but may falter against decent competition, showing cardio issues or being unable to handle being the nail instead of the hammer. Lock does not have a bet on it himself, as he doesn't see Brown as super reliable, but from a narrative and PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks Brown has the edge.
Paul leans Silva, noting Brown's inconsistency and the turmoil at Glory MMA. He thinks Silva's power and explosiveness could be the difference, but acknowledges it's a coin flip. He is not confident and considers it a pass for now.
The MMA Guru picks Erik Silva over T.J. Brown, arguing that Silva is a step above bottom-level UFC featherweights and has shown good potential. He criticizes Brown for only beating very low-level opponents and barely scraping by, while Silva is more experienced and has a good record. He predicts a decision win for Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 47 of 79 | 59% | 86 of 121 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 7:32 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 42 of 99 | 42% | 58 of 125 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 4 | 2 | 2:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 30 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 2:47 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 3 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 39 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:28 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 47 of 79 | 59% | 41 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 16 |
| T.J. Brown | 42 of 99 | 42% | 30 of 86 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 92 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 22 of 42 | 52% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| T.J. Brown | 24 of 49 | 48% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| T.J. Brown | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 20 of 29 | 68% | 19 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| T.J. Brown | 16 of 41 | 39% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks T.J. Brown, believing he can win either the grappling or kickboxing exchanges. He notes both fighters have poor takedown defense, so the fight may come down to who shoots first. He worries about Brown's defensive wrestling but expects Brown to initiate and get takedowns, leading to a win.
Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by first-round submission. He believes Brown's grappling is superior and that Nuerdanbieke is one-dimensional (wrestling only) with poor takedown defense (33%) and has been submitted six times. He notes Brown's submission skills (arm triangle) and that he nearly submitted Charles Rosa. He warns that Brown's fight IQ and cardio are questionable, but expects an early submission. He calls it a bad matchup for Nuerdanbieke.
Cody thinks Brown is the better wrestler and grappler, and has a striking advantage. He notes Nuerdanbieke's poor striking and inability to finish takedowns. He expects Brown to win by decision.
Paul agrees, pointing out Nuerdanbieke's low output and poor takedown stats. He thinks Brown's pressure and striking will look better to the judges.
The host picks T.J. Brown, citing his training with Bryce Mitchell as beneficial for grappling. He believes Brown will stuff takedowns as Shayilan slows down, and win the second and third rounds via decision. He notes Shayilan's wins are not impressive and he lost clearly to Joshua Culibao.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 58 of 99 | 58% | 88 of 141 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 7:39 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 46 of 107 | 42% | 71 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 38 of 70 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 34 of 73 | 46% | 39 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 29 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 3:34 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 21 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 58 of 99 | 58% | 46 of 85 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 87 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 7 |
| Charles Rosa | 46 of 107 | 42% | 21 of 76 | 5 of 10 | 20 of 21 | 42 of 99 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 35 of 67 | 52% | 26 of 56 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 60 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 34 of 73 | 46% | 14 of 49 | 5 of 9 | 15 of 15 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 16 of 23 | 69% | 14 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 9 of 24 | 37% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.
Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.
Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.
The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.
Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 1 | 61 of 128 | 47% | 85 of 155 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:38 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 82 of 211 | 38% | 110 of 243 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 34 of 88 | 38% | 35 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 1 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 40 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 24 of 69 | 34% | 40 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 35 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 61 of 128 | 47% | 38 of 100 | 14 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 51 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 82 of 211 | 38% | 54 of 174 | 19 of 26 | 9 of 11 | 77 of 204 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 22 of 47 | 46% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 34 of 88 | 38% | 17 of 63 | 9 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 33 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 26 of 49 | 53% | 18 of 40 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 24 of 69 | 34% | 19 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 13 of 32 | 40% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 24 of 54 | 44% | 18 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by decision, taking a shot on the underdog. He believes Brown's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Brown can take Kamaka down and wear him out. Brady notes that Kamaka slows down as fights progress and has poor grappling off his back. He also mentions Brown's full training camp at Glory MMA with James Krause, which he sees as a positive. Brady thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.
Cody sees T.J. Brown as a live underdog now that he is training with James Krause at Glory MMA. He notes that Brown has a submission game and grappling prowess, but his cardio is a major concern. He thinks if Brown uses a proper game plan and doesn't gas out, he can take down Kamaka and submit him. He points out that Kamaka has looked unimpressive, with losses to low-level opponents and a close win over Tony Kelley. He believes Krause's coaching can help Brown manage his energy and fight smart.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win, citing his potential as a prospect and the fact that T.J. Brown has a weak chin and poor fight IQ. He notes that Kamaka's last loss was on short notice with a bad weight cut, and that he has since moved to a better training camp. Levi believes Kamaka can outwork Brown if he stays off his back.
The host picks T.J. Brown by submission, expecting him to take down Kai Kamaka and wear him out. He notes Kamaka's poor cardio and lack of power, while Brown is a grappler who can chain wrestle. He believes Brown will eventually find a submission in the second or third round.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' cardio issues and the difficulty in capping the fight. He mentions that Brown's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early, and that Kamaka has looked poor. He does not commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III over T.J. Brown, noting that Kamaka is younger and more committed to his career, while Brown has been beaten eight times and seems to be Bryce Mitchell's sparring partner. He expects Brown to get takedowns in the first round but fade in the later rounds, allowing Kamaka to win the last two rounds and take a 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 43 of 139 | 30% | 59 of 156 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 49 of 110 | 44% | 52 of 113 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 12 of 42 | 28% | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 17 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 12 of 45 | 26% | 18 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 3 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 29 of 62 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 12 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Chavez | 43 of 139 | 30% | 25 of 103 | 12 of 24 | 6 of 12 | 38 of 132 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 49 of 110 | 44% | 23 of 81 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 20 | 40 of 97 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Chavez | 12 of 42 | 28% | 4 of 29 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 17 of 36 | 47% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Danny Chavez | 12 of 45 | 26% | 7 of 33 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 7 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 20 of 43 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | |
| 3 | Danny Chavez | 19 of 52 | 36% | 14 of 41 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 45 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 12 of 31 | 38% | 6 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady likes T.J. Brown's wrestling and ground game, expecting him to dominate and possibly get a submission. He notes Brown's chin is a concern but thinks Chavez's ground game is inferior. He would bet if the line gets closer.
Daniel Levi picks Danny Chavez by finish. He notes that T.J. Brown has durability issues, often getting knocked out or submitted even when winning. He believes Chavez's black belt is legit and that he can catch Brown. However, he admits he knows little about Chavez beyond a head-kick knockout and a photo with a black belt. He feels Brown is mentally fragile and prone to getting finished.
The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown, citing his dangerous grappling and training with Bryce Mitchell. He expects Chavez to come out overzealous looking for a quick finish, which will allow Brown to secure a takedown and control the fight on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Griffin | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:05 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 32 of 47 | 68% | 91 of 119 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Griffin | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:05 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 18 of 24 | 75% | 56 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 2 | Jordan Griffin | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 35 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Griffin | 15 of 23 | 65% | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| T.J. Brown | 32 of 47 | 68% | 26 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 22 | 10 of 10 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Griffin | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 18 of 24 | 75% | 13 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 11 | |
| 2 | Jordan Griffin | 10 of 15 | 66% | 8 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| T.J. Brown | 14 of 23 | 60% | 13 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Charles Rosa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 97 of 159 | 61% | 102 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 51 of 167 | 30% | 54 of 170 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 39 of 62 | 62% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 31 of 51 | 60% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 12 of 42 | 28% | 12 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 28 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 14 of 62 | 22% | 17 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 97 of 159 | 61% | 62 of 111 | 4 of 13 | 31 of 35 | 87 of 144 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 |
| Charles Rosa | 51 of 167 | 30% | 21 of 120 | 18 of 29 | 12 of 18 | 43 of 156 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 39 of 62 | 62% | 27 of 44 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 11 | 38 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 25 of 63 | 39% | 9 of 43 | 10 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 31 of 51 | 60% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 14 | 26 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Charles Rosa | 12 of 42 | 28% | 6 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 11 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 27 of 46 | 58% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 10 of 10 | 23 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 14 of 62 | 22% | 6 of 48 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 56 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Wood's 75% takedown defense and high volume of strikes, while Charles Rosa is a BJJ specialist who struggles when taken down. He mentions the Casey Kenny loss as a concern but still believes Wood gets it done and will be a parlay piece.
Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He notes Wood is moving up in weight but has a massive speed and volume advantage on the feet. Rosa's path to victory is a submission off his back, but Wood has good takedown defense. Rosa is tough to finish, so Wood wins a decision.
Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, noting he can win wherever the fight goes. He highlights Wood's superior boxing, volume, and footwork. Cody thinks Rosa's only chance is a fluke submission, but Wood's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
Daniel Levi picks Nathaniel Wood, citing a massive speed advantage and excellent leg kicks. He notes that Charles Rosa is slow, hittable, and easy to take down. Levi warns that Wood should avoid getting caught in a submission or cut, but overall sees this as a good introductory fight for Wood at featherweight.
Wood is the better striker and should touch Rosa up from the outside. Rosa is durable and has good submission defense, but Wood can win a decision. The move up to 145 is a concern, but Rosa isn't a grappler who will exploit the size gap. Wood glides to a decision.
Paul picks Nathaniel Wood, stating he should cruise. He notes Rosa flops to his back and Wood can box him up. Paul thinks Wood's volume and striking are superior. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Nathaniel Wood to win by TKO in the second round. He praises Wood's takedown defense, leg kicks, and speed. Charles Rosa is 35 and hasn't looked good recently. Wood will chop at the legs, stuff takedowns, and eventually brutalize Rosa for a TKO finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 58 of 99 | 58% | 88 of 141 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 7:39 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 46 of 107 | 42% | 71 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 38 of 70 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 34 of 73 | 46% | 39 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 29 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 3:34 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 21 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 58 of 99 | 58% | 46 of 85 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 87 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 7 |
| Charles Rosa | 46 of 107 | 42% | 21 of 76 | 5 of 10 | 20 of 21 | 42 of 99 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 35 of 67 | 52% | 26 of 56 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 60 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 34 of 73 | 46% | 14 of 49 | 5 of 9 | 15 of 15 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 16 of 23 | 69% | 14 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 9 of 24 | 37% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.
Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.
Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.
The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.
Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 34 of 87 | 39% | 116 of 181 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 1:18 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 41 of 87 | 47% | 53 of 101 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 | 3 | 10:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 22 of 61 | 36% | 30 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 24 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 27 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 26 of 45 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 4:05 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 59 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:12 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 2 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 34 of 87 | 39% | 17 of 66 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 13 | 26 of 76 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 41 of 87 | 47% | 33 of 77 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 22 of 61 | 36% | 8 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 18 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 19 of 47 | 40% | 15 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 19 of 37 | 51% | 15 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 17 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 4 of 4 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Damon Jackson despite stats favoring Charles Rosa. He likes Jackson's will, determination, and willingness to scrap. He thinks Jackson's fight IQ and grappling can survive Rosa's jiu-jitsu, and his striking could catch Rosa. He also placed a bet on Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at plus 125 as a Hail Mary submission play.
Big Brady picks Damon Jackson, citing Charles Rosa's poor takedown defense and inability to get up. He references Rosa's fights against Bryce Mitchell and Derrick Minor, where they controlled him with takedowns. Brady believes Jackson can implement a similar game plan, taking Rosa down and controlling him for a decision. He notes he would not bet the line at -180/-190, but thinks Jackson can win comfortably via decision.
Cody picks the underdog Rosa, arguing that Jackson's striking is not elite and Rosa's BJJ and counter-striking could be effective. He notes Rosa's durability and ability to win close fights. He believes the line is too wide and Rosa has a live path to victory via decision or submission.
Daniel Levi leans toward Charles Rosa as a dog because he views the fight as a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Rosa's ability to survive submissions and make fights close, but acknowledges his tendency to spend too much time on his back. He expects a close, possibly controversial split decision win for Rosa.
Jacob leans towards Damon Jackson but is intrigued by Charles Rosa as an underdog at plus 145. He thinks Rosa's grappling is next-level and could cause problems. He expects a close fight and sees Rosa as an interesting underdog play. He would pick Jackson but might bet Rosa.
The host picks Damon Jackson, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He notes Jackson's excellent cardio and ability to control opponents, while Rosa has good submission defense but may be outgrappled. He predicts a decision win for Jackson, which would be only the second decision of Jackson's career, due to Rosa's durability.
Paul picks Jackson, citing his better striking and pressure. He notes Rosa's tendency to flop to his back and lack of a striking game plan. He believes Jackson can win on the feet and avoid Rosa's submission threats, though he admits it's not a high-confidence pick.
The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson to win by unanimous decision. He trusts Jackson's defensive grappling and guillotine threats to keep the fight standing, where Jackson has a significant advantage in striking and reach. He dismisses Rosa's striking as poor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 51 of 182 | 28% | 114 of 258 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 3:37 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 44 of 92 | 47% | 51 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 3 | 2:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 35 of 119 | 29% | 36 of 121 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 57 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:21 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 21 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 51 of 182 | 28% | 33 of 156 | 8 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 47 of 173 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
| Justin Jaynes | 44 of 92 | 47% | 32 of 79 | 9 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 42 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 35 of 119 | 29% | 22 of 101 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Justin Jaynes | 19 of 41 | 46% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 3 of 15 | 20% | 1 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Justin Jaynes | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 13 of 48 | 27% | 10 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Justin Jaynes | 19 of 39 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.
Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.
Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.
Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.
Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.
Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrick Minner | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 40 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 | 45 of 60 | 75% | 96 of 117 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 | 0 | 12:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrick Minner | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 49 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:03 | |
| 2 | Darrick Minner | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 | 15 of 16 | 93% | 32 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:46 | |
| 3 | Darrick Minner | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 20 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 15 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrick Minner | 15 of 25 | 60% | 9 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Charles Rosa | 45 of 60 | 75% | 35 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 19 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrick Minner | 6 of 11 | 54% | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 23 of 35 | 65% | 18 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 17 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 12 | |
| 2 | Darrick Minner | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 15 of 16 | 93% | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 8 | |
| 3 | Darrick Minner | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Charles Rosa | 7 of 9 | 77% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Daniel Levi respects Darrick Minner's 20 first-round submissions and his ability to finish quickly, but notes Charles Rosa has never been submitted and survived deep submission attempts against Yair Rodriguez and Bryce Mitchell. Levi thinks if Minner doesn't get the finish in the first round, Rosa's work rate and kicks will overwhelm Minner in the later rounds. He is hesitant to lay the -200 chalk on Rosa but sees more paths to victory for him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 69 of 173 | 39% | 69 of 173 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 53 of 135 | 39% | 53 of 135 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 20 of 56 | 35% | 20 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 27 of 67 | 40% | 27 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 22 of 59 | 37% | 22 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 69 of 173 | 39% | 33 of 119 | 15 of 26 | 21 of 28 | 69 of 173 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 53 of 135 | 39% | 34 of 109 | 17 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 50 of 130 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 20 of 56 | 35% | 5 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 10 of 13 | 20 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 14 of 37 | 37% | 10 of 29 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 22 of 50 | 44% | 10 of 30 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 9 | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 17 of 39 | 43% | 11 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 27 of 67 | 40% | 18 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 27 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 22 of 59 | 37% | 13 of 49 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa, noting that he shouldn't be judged by his loss to Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Rosa's jiu-jitsu and striking, recalling that Rosa out-struck Shane Burgos in their fight. He believes Rosa will finish Aguilar by head kick, as Aguilar is coming off a KO loss and a short turnaround.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 40 of 49 | 81% | 60 of 74 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 5 | 0 | 12:51 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 12 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 28 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 20 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 40 of 49 | 81% | 27 of 36 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 46 |
| Charles Rosa | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 11 of 13 | 84% | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 12 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 17 of 21 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 12 of 15 | 80% | 7 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 14 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Dropping down to the featherweight division, we are treated to a matchup between two solid prospects in American Top Team’s Rosa (12-3, 3-3 UFC) and the undefeated Mitchell (12-0, 3-0 UFC). Our referee for this bout is Keith Peterson, and uncharacteristically he is allowing some nonsense by not wearing a mask. The two elect not to touch gloves to kick off their match, and Mitchell immediately stalks Rosa down against the fence. Rosa tries to keep away and throw kicks, but Mitchell is unconcerned and hits a quick single leg takedown. Mitchell ties up the legs to keep Rosa grounded, and Mitchell circles around to take the back. Rosa spins out but is immediately is in the danger zone. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa’s head is changing colors rapidly and thinks about tapping. Rosa continues to flail and almost taps again, but somehow manages to pull his head free. Mitchell is on him like glue, taking the back before hunting for an arm-triangle choke again. Rosa throws his legs up to hunt for an inverted triangle choke, and Mitchell is unconcerned as he spins free. The ensuing exchange miraculously leads to Mitchell setting up a twister, and the commentary booth is losing it. Rosa struggles, turns and tries to survive, and manages to get out for a moment, only to give it up again. In an impressive showing of submission defense, Rosa pulls his body out but surrenders another arm-triangle choke. This time, it’s tight, and Mitchell squeezes with all he has. Rosa’s head turns red quickly once more, but he powers free and remains on his back. Mitchell tries to set up one last submission, but the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Round 2
Rosa opens the round with a few head kicks, and keep Mitchell at bay for a few seconds. “Thug Nasty” gathers his thoughts and shoots in for a takedown, and immediately passes guard and takes three-quarter mount. Rosa is unable to get any offense going as Mitchell nullifies him, and gives up mount as Mitchell tries to set up another arm-triangle. While Mitchell continues to style on Rosa, the commentary booth ponders the true location of Fight Island -- none of them know. Mitchell drops down a few heavy elbows and punches on top, and Rosa uses that aggression against his opponent to pull for a leglock. Mitchell practically ignores it, before stepping back to mount. He steps over to get an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa stays calm and defends it well enough before Mitchell bails to return to mount. Rosa turns over, and Mitchell thinks about taking his back before setting up another twister. This is unquestionably the record for the most twister attempts in a UFC fight before, and this time it’s tight as a drum. Unfortunately for Mitchell, the horn sounds before he can get the tap, but this is all one-way traffic from “Thug Nasty.”
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Round 3
Within 15 seconds, Mitchell dives into a takedown and incredibly sets up another twister. Rosa locks his arm up to hold on tight, but Mitchell pulls on the right arm of Rosa to twist him the other direction. Rosa pushes with all his might to get free, and while he gets out of the bad situation, he is still grounded. “Boston Strong” tries to set up a guillotine off his back, and Mitchell thinks about going after a Von Preux choke until thinking about the arm-triangle choke again. The unbeaten fighter chains submission together one after the other, and props to Rosa for surviving, but it is total domination. Rosa gives up his back, defends a choke and rolls back over. Ever vigilant, Mitchell returns to mount before hunting for the arm-triangle once more. Rosa is cursing out Mitchell for “laying on me” but is not showing the defense to get out of harm’s way. Mitchell takes a high mount and thinks about blasting him with a few shots on top, but Rosa rolls out just in time. Mitchell hops out, turns around and dives back in to secure top position. Mitchell rolls through a crucifix, hammers down a few elbows, takes top position with Rosa’s feet trying to kick off the cage. He successfully does so with seconds to spare, but he is spent -- Mitchell crashes forward to strike him and clinch up, but the round, and fight, is over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-24 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Charles Rosa via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-24)
Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his youth, size, and overall superiority on the ground and feet. He downplays Rosa's submission win over Manny Bermudez, calling Bermudez a fraud. He thinks the line at minus 175 is a bit wide and sees little value but still expects Mitchell to win.
Daniel Levi slightly leans towards Bryce Mitchell, citing his athleticism and youth. He notes that Mitchell has holes in his game and may fatigue, but Rosa is a finished product who isn't getting better. Levi thinks Mitchell can get the job done by being younger and fresher, possibly with a late finish.
Matt initially considered Mitchell as a lock but after tape review, he favors Rosa as a live dog. He highlights Rosa's leg kicks, offensive guard, and ability to keep the fight standing, while questioning Mitchell's striking development and the impact of training camps during the pandemic. He picks Rosa by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manny Bermudez | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 37 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manny Bermudez | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 37 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manny Bermudez | 27 of 38 | 71% | 25 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 32 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manny Bermudez | 27 of 38 | 71% | 25 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 32 |
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.
Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.
Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.
The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.
Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.
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