Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"Career Averages
Win Methods (7)
Loss Methods (5)
Fight History
Expert Picks (19)
AJ mentions Royval's best days may be behind him and that Kavanagh could knock him out, but does not make a definitive pick. He suggests he'd rather believe in Kavanagh straight.
AJ believes Lone'er Kavanagh will knock out Brandon Royval, calling it a statement performance. He likes Kavanagh KO at +240 and thinks it could happen early, with round one at +650. He dismisses Royval's chances, though notes a Royval KO is possible at +400.
AJ picks Kavanagh to outclass Royval, emphasizing Kavanagh's technical striking, speed, and high fight IQ. He believes Kavanagh's clean combinations and body work will overwhelm Royval's chaotic style, and that Royval's recent KO loss raises durability concerns. AJ sees Kavanagh winning by decision or late stoppage.
AJ picks Lone'er Kavanagh, calling him his lock of the week. He believes Kavanagh gets an early KO, noting his KO on Contender Series was crazy. AJ acknowledges Royval's underdog potential but is confident in Kavanagh.
AJ picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win, praising his high-level Muay Thai, speed, and technical striking. He believes Kavanagh's educated pressure and combinations will outclass Royval, who is on a two-fight losing streak and coming off a knockout loss. He sees Kavanagh winning by decision or knockout, and notes Royval's best chance is a wild strike.
AJ is confident in Lone'er Kavanagh, calling him a blue-chip prospect with technical striking and knockout power. He believes Kavanagh will knock out Brandon Royval, who may be past his prime after a bad loss. He notes Kavanagh's improved cardio and sees him as a showcase fighter.
Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh because he is a fast, clean, technical striker with good cardio, as shown in his five-round win over Brandon Moreno. He believes Kavanagh's speed and power will be too much for Royval, who can be wild and has been knocked out before. He notes that Royval has two hours of octagon time and is dangerous, but Kavanagh should win.
Angelo believes Kavanagh's speed and footwork will be the difference. He thinks Royval is less technical and will struggle to swarm Kavanagh. He notes Kavanagh's cardio concerns but points out he fought 25 minutes against Moreno. He expects Kavanagh to win.
Big Brady picks the fight to end by knockout, taking it at +195 for 1.25 units. He believes Kavanagh will have multiple opportunities to knock out Royval due to Royval's poor striking defense (43%), questionable chin from recent concussions, and willingness to eat shots. He notes Royval's chaotic style creates openings, and Kavanagh's speed and power should connect. He also mentions Royval's only loss by knockout and the possibility of Royval hurting Kavanagh, but leans heavily on Kavanagh's finishing ability.
Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win by second-round knockout. He praises Kavanagh's improvement and power, noting his impressive performance against Charles Johnson and Brandon Moreno. He criticizes Royval's poor striking defense and chin issues, believing Kavanagh will land multiple big shots. He thinks Royval's grappling won't be a factor.
Big Brady leans towards Kavanagh, citing Royval's recent injuries, concussion issues, and hittability. He thinks the fight will take place standing and Kavanagh's striking is fast and powerful. However, he is concerned about Kavanagh's fluke KO loss to Charles Johnson. He might look at Kavanagh by KO prop.
Cody picks Kavanagh but is hesitant, citing Royval's inconsistency and durability concerns. He notes Kavanagh's power and youth, and the impressive win over Moreno at altitude. However, he acknowledges Royval's proven level and that Kavanagh has looked inconsistent.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Lone'er Kavanagh, citing Brandon Royval's recent concussion issues, beatdown by Josh Van, and knockout loss to Minnell Cap. He believes Kavanagh is catching Royval at the right time and has the skills to win by decision or knockout. Levi notes that Kavanagh's point-fighting style and Royval's tendency to engage could lead to a dominant performance.
Jacob picks Lone'er Kavanagh, noting that he was impressed by his win over Moreno and that he looked dialed in. He believes Kavanagh's power and speed could trouble Royval, who has been hurt before. He warns that Royval is a wild card and could surprise, but thinks Kavanagh should win if he doesn't try to make a statement and stays patient.
Lucrative James picks Lone'er Kavanagh via KO, praising his elite striking, movement, and counter-punching. He acknowledges Kavanagh's chin issues and potential cardio fade but believes Royval is too hittable and lacks the wrestling to force a grappling war. He warns that if Kavanagh wrestles, Royval's jiu-jitsu could be dangerous, but expects Kavanagh to finish on the feet.
The host picks Kavanagh by knockout, believing his speed and precision will find Royval's chin. He notes Royval's pace could be a problem and would prefer Kavanagh at a better price than -220, but likes the under 2.5 rounds or fight doesn't go to decision.
The host believes Kavanagh is ready for this level of competition, as shown in his previous win over Brandon Moreno. He expects Kavanagh to use his speed, calf kicks, and power to touch up Royval and win by knockout.
Paul picks Kavanagh by KO, believing his power and youth will be decisive. He notes Royval's recent knockout loss and durability questions. He is less interested in a decision win and prefers the KO prop at +240.
The MMA Guru picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win by KO in the first round. He believes Kavanagh's calf kicks and speed will be too much for Brandon Royval, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Royval throws with his chin up and is vulnerable to hooks over the top. He predicts Kavanagh will target the body and legs early, then land a hook upstairs.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manel Kape | 1 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manel Kape | 1 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 17 of 26 | 65% | 5 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 17 of 23 | 73% | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 17 of 26 | 65% | 5 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 17 of 23 | 73% | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-300); Royval (+240)
Round 1
This main event is a flyweight tilt many have circled on the calendar the day it was announced. Always in a wild scrap, Royval (17-8, 7-4 UFC) has reached all but the pinnacle of his division as bounces around the top five. After some delays and scrubbed pairings, he finally gets to take on the brick-fisted Kape (21-7, 6-3 UFC). The talk is over, the prep is finished, and it’s time for some action. Referee Herb Dean ushers the two to the center of the Octagon to issue final instructions and elicit a glove touch, which is heard and answered by the athletes. It’s on with the show, this being the final UFC bout on ESPN (unless they sign back with ESPN in 2033).
Kape marches Royval down immediately lobbing a hard calf kick at him to greet him. Royval answers him back. Violent pleasantries exchanged, the two get to it for real. Royval lands a side kick to the ribs, and Kape keeps targeting the lead leg. Royval answers in kind, and swipes out with a right hand on the way back. Kape chips at the front wheel once more with his low kick, and Royval makes sure to pay him back immediately. Royval lets rip a body kick that lands with a loud slap, and he kicks with the other leg which makes a thumping sound instead. Royval punches his way into a low kick combination, and he tags Kape upstairs to interrupt a combo. Another hefty body kick from “Raw Dawg” lands flush, who then targets the calf. Kape swings himself off-balance with a big kick, gathering himself in time to dodge a kick flying at his face.
Royval tosses up a high kick, and Kape rushes him. Something appears to bother Kape, who has to suddenly back off and put his hand on the fence. Oddly enough, the same thing happens to Royval, who looks to have jammed his toes on a kick. Kape walks him down and blasts him in the face with a ferocious right hand that puts him down for the count. “Starboy” unleashes a final barrage of fists while Royval tries to sit up and recover, knocking the Factory X fighter clean out and then switching him back online again. Dean sees when Royval goes limp a second time, and he intervenes. Royval is trying to stand at the time, but he is on wobbled legs and thinks to protest but decides against it. Cooler heads bring him over to his corner so that he can sit down and talk to his team now that the fight is over, and Kape hurries over to talk to someone seated outside of the cage. Ending the ESPN era with one destructive flurry, Kape ties the UFC flyweight record for the most knockouts in divisional history, tying Joe Benavidez with five.
The triumphant Kape challenges new flyweight king Joshua Van for his belt, claiming that he will, and we can’t make this up, “take his diapers.” Sometimes these things happen in MMA. With this 12-fight show in the books, the ESPN era of the UFC is now complete. With the winter break upcoming, there will be a whopping six weeks until the next UFC card on Jan. 24, a gap with no events not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic shut the sport down for a few months in 2020. There will be a few more major fight cards in 2025, with PFL Africa next week and Rizin’s NYE spectacular coming up soon. We will be there for them, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Brandon Royval R1 3:18 via KO (Punches)
Expert Picks (5)
Cody picks Royval as a plus money underdog, citing his infinite cardio, pressure, and volume. He believes Royval's improved striking and grappling will allow him to outwork Kape over five rounds, especially in deeper waters. He notes Kape's power but thinks Royval's chin can hold up and that Royval will win a close decision by outlanding him in significant strikes.
Connor picks Kape but is hesitant, acknowledging that Kape has the potential to be elite but lacks a consistent process. He believes that if Kape comes out aggressive and forces exchanges, his speed, power, and accuracy should allow him to counter Royval's volume. Connor also notes that Royval's style is 'nonsense' and that Kape is an apex athlete who can hurt anyone. However, he admits that Kape's tendency to be inactive and not engage could be a problem, and that Royval's durability makes a finish unlikely.
Lucrative James picks Manel Kape confidently, arguing that Brandon Royval's aggressive, pressure-heavy style plays into Kape's hands. He notes Kape's superior boxing, timing, and power, and believes Kape will hurt Royval multiple times, though a knockout is uncertain given Royval's durability. He projects Kape as a -250 favorite.
Paul agrees with Cody, also taking Royval at plus 250. He highlights the Felipe dos Santos fight as evidence that Kape can be pushed in a striking battle, and doubts Kape can maintain high volume for 25 minutes. He sees Royval's durability and output as key factors.
Zane picks Royval because he believes Royval's high-volume, pressure-heavy style is more conducive to winning at high levels of MMA. He notes that Royval is big for the division, throws a ton, and is a dynamic grappler who will attack submissions. Zane also points out that Kape has a history of being inactive and not imposing his will, as seen in the Mochaev fight, and that Royval's style will force Kape to fight, which plays into Royval's hands. He also mentions that the small cage will help Royval.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 215 of 467 | 46% | 216 of 468 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joshua Van | 1 | 204 of 305 | 66% | 209 of 311 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 42 of 116 | 36% | 42 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joshua Van | 0 | 52 of 79 | 65% | 52 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 87 of 174 | 50% | 87 of 174 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joshua Van | 0 | 74 of 106 | 69% | 77 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 86 of 177 | 48% | 87 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joshua Van | 1 | 78 of 120 | 65% | 80 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 215 of 467 | 46% | 179 of 422 | 22 of 27 | 14 of 18 | 205 of 451 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Joshua Van | 204 of 305 | 66% | 138 of 232 | 37 of 43 | 29 of 30 | 181 of 270 | 20 of 27 | 3 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 42 of 116 | 36% | 27 of 95 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 41 of 114 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Joshua Van | 52 of 79 | 65% | 31 of 55 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 12 | 46 of 71 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 87 of 174 | 50% | 77 of 163 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 81 of 165 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Joshua Van | 74 of 106 | 69% | 50 of 81 | 18 of 19 | 6 of 6 | 65 of 95 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 86 of 177 | 48% | 75 of 164 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 83 of 172 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Joshua Van | 78 of 120 | 65% | 57 of 96 | 10 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 70 of 104 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-120), Royval (+100)
Round 1
In the “featured fight of the night,” flyweights roll the dice to see who may get the next crack at the champ. As it turns out, this de facto tournament will be resolved one bout later, when Alexandre Pantoja rematches Kai Kara-France for the throne. Having come up short in 2023, and already 0-2 against the champ Pantoja, Royval (17-7, 7-3 UFC) more than likely hopes there will be change in beltholder in about an hour. Looking to spoil the party of “Raw Dawg” will be the fast-rising 23-year-old Van (14-2, 7-1 UFC), who has shot up the ranks like a cannon and takes this bout on short notice. Despite that, Van is the betting favorite. Referee Jason Herzog will keep things on the up-and-up, although they kick off with a sporting fist bump.
Royval probes with his jab and sets up an early low kick. He digs a kick to the ribcage and goes back low to the calf on either side. Royval uses his reach to keep the younger man at bay, chipping away at him from a safe distance. For the first minute, Van is doing nothing more than taking potshots. Royval goes to the body again with his toes extended, and he rushes forward into the awaiting right hand from the 23-year-old. Van catches Royval twice more with his big right hand, and Royval shrugs them off and continues doing work from the outside. Royval splits the guard with jab after unanswered jab, moving and evading to not let Van get to him. Van misses on a right hand, and Royval clips him with his own short right hook. Van strikes the body with a right, and Royval reaches his target with jabs and a short check hook.
Van lands multiple blistering right hands, hitting “Raw Dawg” much harder than Royval has struck him yet. Royval goes to the body with a kick as he skirts away, and Van reaches him with a right. Van knocks Royval to his seat, although Royval stumbled on the way out. He bounces back to his feet, and Van is ready to crack him with another heavy right. Any time Royval closes the distance, Van has a right hand awaiting him. Van gets Royval’s attention twice, and Royval knees him hard in the chest. Van knocks Royval back a step with two powerful right hands on the cheek, and a third connects when Royval puts hands on him. Royval gets up close and personal, and although he delivers a single knee, Van rips the midsection with several fast fists. The strikes have marked up Royval’s nose, who does not appear concerned after getting hit hard. He potshots Van a few more times until the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van
Round 2
The fighters tap gloves before engaging, and Royval gets right back to his high-volume, low-power approach. He jams Van in the sternum with a smattering of knees before backing off, where he takes a right hand on the way out. The two swing at one another, forming a cloud of feet and fists reminiscent of an Andy Capp comic. Van drills Royval at the end of two right hands, only to eat a sharp knee on the jaw. Royval drives him back with a flurry, and his body kick allows him to get in and swing a left. Royval stings Van with a straight left, and Van comes over the top with a right. Van gets off a clubbing right in the midst of Royval’s jab-a-palooza, and he absorbs a low kick and two powerful uppercuts. Royval plants a one-two on the chin to shake up the youngster from Myanmar, and he opens up with several more punches. Van stands in the pocket and bangs with him, with Royval getting knocked back and needing to reset, his nose leaking.
Royval starts putting more behind his punches, and Van is still hurling with power. The stats are racking up fast, and Van’s right hand is a weapon that seemingly cannot miss. Van drives a knee to the chest and follows with an overhand right, and Royval rifles off a number of piston-like jabs. Van misses with his right, and Royval works him with three speedy punches. Royval’s right cheek shows damage, and he gets stood up in a combo. Royval lets jab after jab land on the nose, and he follows with long, straight left hands. Van attacks the body, and just when he is about to gain momentum, Royval is on him with a powerful salvo. They continue to unload into one another’s faces, stealing the hearts of the crowd. Royval walks straight through a hard combination, fires back and gets staggered ever-so briefly. Royval goes to the body, and they swing it out to the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 3
The flyweights tap gloves, and it takes nary a second for Royval to get behind his jab. He sways to avoid the worst of a right hand and fires back with a one-two. Van connects with a quick left hook, shaking Royval up with two more punches but eating a few on the way out. Van reaches out with a right hand, and he allows Royval to close in so he can smash him in the temple with his overhand right. Royval surges forward behind long arms, ignoring a few body shots to put his fists on Van’s face. Van cracks him with a huge right hand, and Royval just smiles. Royval drops a body kick on his foe, and they take a moment to compose themselves before going for broke again. Van lands a one-two, and Royval pays him right back with a knee up the middle and a few fiery fists back. Van gets in tight for a second to land body shots, and Royval disengages.
Royval drives four punches him, and Van drills him with a right hand that surprises Royval. The Factory x fighter takes a hard leg kick and goes to the body with his shin. The two brawl it out, and Royval may be bloody in the nose but he is not slowing down. Van digs a kick to the body, and Royval reaches him with a left. Van pays him back with a combo, and Royval gets in his face with a flurry. Royval goes to the body with a kick, and Van counters him up top. Royval strings together a three-punch combo, and he darts away before Van reaches him. Van stumbles his opponent with his power right, and he knees Royval in the nose. Royval checks a kick and crashes the pocket with an uppercut and several more punches. Van kicks Royval’s leg out, and he swings a right hand over the top. He catches Royval on the way in with a left, and Royval is not about to let him off the hook. With 15 seconds to go, the two batter and smash one another. Van knocks “Raw Dawg” to the mat in an insane exchange, following the former title challenger down to the mat and hammering him until time expires. What an incredible fight! Royval was hurt but made it to the end, and a new challenger has emerged. The flyweights delivered easily one of the best fights of the year, giving it everything they had and more. If only this one had two more rounds...in victory, Van proudly declares that whomever wins the title in the next match will have to go through him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Brandon Royval via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Brandon Royval because he believes Royval is still in his prime and will be the best fighter Joshua Van has ever faced. He notes that Van's UFC record is loaded with wrestlers and lower-level guys, and the last time Van fought a predominant striker, he was finished in the third round. He placed a bet on Royval weeks ago and is confident in the pick.
Big Brady believes Royval is underrated, citing his wins over top competition like Taira, Moreno, and Nicolau. He notes Van has durability concerns, having been knocked out by Charles Johnson and hurt by Edgar Chairez. Brady thinks Royval's experience, cardio, and grappling advantage will be key, and predicts Royval will hurt Van, who will then shoot for a takedown and get submitted. He picks Royval by second-round submission.
Connor initially wanted to pick Van but was convinced by Phil that Royval's style is a bad matchup for Van. He notes that Royval has become a long-range volume fighter who can frustrate opponents, and Van has struggled against tall, rangy fighters. He also mentions Royval's durability and pace as factors. However, he is not fully confident because Royval's style is not championship-level and he gives away a lot.
The host acknowledges Royval's unorthodox striking may cause early trouble, but expects Van to land big shots in the second and third rounds, possibly getting a late TKO, but ultimately winning on the scorecards in the biggest win of his career.
The host picks Joshua Van, praising his boxing, head movement, and body work. He notes that Royval's volume often lacks sting and that Van's activity and recent form are advantages. He predicts Van will win a decision, taking the first two rounds, while Royval may take the third.
Zane is also leaning towards Royval after being convinced by Phil. He notes that Royval's leaf-blower style at range could be problematic for Van, who has struggled against fighters who keep him at distance. He also mentions that Royval is durable and has a high pace. However, he is not confident because Royval's style is not impressive and Van could potentially overwhelm him if he gets inside.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 124 of 232 | 53% | 172 of 287 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 2 | 2:23 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 42 of 99 | 42% | 80 of 143 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 12:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 55 | 30% | 17 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 11 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 29 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 56 of 78 | 71% | 81 of 105 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:45 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 43 of 74 | 58% | 57 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 1:26 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 124 of 232 | 53% | 114 of 216 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 97 of 203 | 11 of 12 | 16 of 17 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 42 of 99 | 42% | 34 of 91 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 93 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 17 of 55 | 30% | 12 of 46 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 5 of 7 | 71% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 56 of 78 | 71% | 54 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 52 | 9 of 10 | 15 of 16 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 5 of 21 | 23% | 5 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 8 of 13 | 61% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 43 of 74 | 58% | 43 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 14 of 36 | 38% | 12 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-225), Royval (+185)
Round 1
The UFC has chosen well with this all-action flyweight scrap capping off the fight card. Fresh off a revenge win over Brandon Moreno, Royval (16-7, 6-3 UFC) is energized and fully capable of playing spoiler. Taira (16-0, 6-0 UFC) has yet to taste defeat, and his performances continue to dazzle as he works his way up the 125-pound ladder. The two are brought to the middle of the cage by referee Jason Herzog for final instructions, and they gladly bump fists before madness ensues. It’s on with the show. Royval hops in and out searching for an early jab, and he pitches out a high kick to further gauge his range. Royval has another head kick miss, and Taira tests his mettle with a light low kick. Royval connects with a body kick, and Taira changes levels on him. Royval defends with a guillotine choke, and he breaks free of the attempt with his back bouncing off the wall. Royval walks through a right hand to get off his own, and his subsequent head kick efforts continue missing. A straight left from Royval reddens the Japanese fighter’s nose, and he catches Taira coming in with another left hand. Royval kicks the body and spins around, with Taira getting off a right hand. Royval scores another body kick that does not get caught, and he snaps out a one-two to get Taira’s attention. Royval clubs his foe with a left hand, and he gets off another in short order before dancing away to a safe distance. Royval measures and clubs Taira once more with a left, having found its range with it and a body kick. Taira bends over and gets his hair buzzed with a back fist. Two more body kicks from Royval get through, and his jab splits the guard. Taira walks into a pair of punches, and he makes Royval stumble with a short combo and grabs hold of Royval from behind to drag him to the floor. Royval attacks a kneebar as soon as he hits a mat, and he transitions into a heel hook and tugs on it from the other side for an inverted variety. Taira turns but cannot get out of the leg danger, as Royval commits to it by rolling over. Taira slithers away from the submission, and Royval breaks free and darts after him with long punches before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 2
Royval is right in the center of the cage ready to pick up where he left off, and his long punches lead to a step-in knee. Taira threatens with a double, scooping Royval up and pushing off the fence to drag Royval down and take his back. Taira flattens Royval out for a moment, but Royval is a scrambler and he keeps moving any direction he can. Taira secures the body triangle to stifle the former title challenger’s escape attempts, and he slides over to take mount before stretching Royval out further. Royval scoots his way to put the wall behind him, with Taira sitting up and the leg grip still around his waist. Royval hand-fights to defend from a submission, and Taira looks to isolate a choke. Royval rolls over, turning twice until he grabs hold of Taira’s knee to spin him around. Taira further maintains control from behind, with Royval’s efforts in vain. Royval is warned for grabbing the inside of the glove, and Taira sells out for a rear-naked choke. Taira turns to the other side to further sneak it in, and Royval is able to stop these attempts for the time being. Royval sits back down with Taira holding an unorthodox grip around his shoulder, and he uses it to put Royval on his back and reassume mount. Royval spins around to escape the first bad position, and Taira deftly slides through to get his back and shut Royval down by getting in half guard. Royval attacks a leglock, forcing Taira to stand up and pull his leg away. Royval works back to his feet in the waning seconds, and one body kick is all he gets off before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 3
Fists are bumped to get going, and a more tentative Royval gets countered over the top with a left hand. Taira reaches him with another left hook over the top, and Royval slugs him in the chops with a right hand. A straight left from Royval finds its home on the jaw, and he lands another few punches and a knee when Taira shoots for a takedown. Royval defends the double with several elbows to the side of the head, and he stands Taira up with a sharp knee. Royval breaks out of the attempt and goes wild with a flurry of strikes, shaking Taira up briefly. Taira’s recoverability is excellent, as he does not back up and instead stays just out of range. Royval bears down on him with a long left and an uppercut, and his uppercut clips Taira again when Taira tries to strike back. Royval gets energized by landing flush, hurting Taira with a flurry of fists. Taira shoots desperately for a takedown when he gets hurt with a salvo from “Raw Dawg.” Taira’s takedown is used against him, as Royval throws him to the mat and works on him with hammerfists. Royval thwarts another attempt, and Taira is fading fast as the woodchipper in Royval is on him chewing him up with punches and knees. Taira goes after another takedown, and it is not effective as he ducks face-first into a clean knee. Taira drops to the mat, and Royval follows him and beats on him with hammerfists on either side of the head. Taira tries to move, and Royval circles around to take Taira’s back and get hooks in. Royval searches for an armbar, rolling to his bell to lock it down, and Taira miraculously fights his way out of the sub and turns Royval around to get his back. Taira fastens the body triangle and starts hunting for his own submission. A rear-naked choke from the Japanese youngster sneaks around the jaw of his foe, and Royval decides to punch instead of fighting the hands. Royval grits it out and survives to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 4
Royval is fired up after his corner very loudly and dramatically informs him that he needs to crush this kid. Taira is not about to go down lightly, and the two flyweights meet in the center of the cage and trade hands violently. When Taira gets stung, he shoots in for a takedown. Royval balances thanks in part to a fence grab, although Taira still wrests him to the mat. Taira gets his hooks in and locks down the body triangle, with Royval pulling off the fence to try to spin himself about. Taira hunts for a choke, and Royval fights the body lock and turns to his knees. Taira’s body lock remains firmly around the midsection even sitting upright, and Royval rolls but is still snared in the web. Taira softens him up from behind with punches as Royval keeps turning, and he lands an elbow as he moves from position to position. When absorbing one particularly fierce elbow, Royval turns to his stomach, and he uses two-on-one control to wriggle himself out. Taira’s savvy back control further nullifies “Raw Dawg,” and he lets Royval roll to his back to get the body triangle again. Royval fights it off on one side, but Taira fastens it on the other. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Royval sits up and is near to escape, but time expires before he can. It could be all tied up now.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 5
With five minutes left in the fight very likely even on the scorecards, Royval strikes first in the final round. Connecting with four or five early punches, Royval is forced to sprawl to stop a level change. Taira walks into a few punches after Royval stands up, and he reaches with a right but gets clubbed with an uppercut. Royval reaches out with a left hand, and he snipes Taira coming in with a few punches. Royval eats a pair of lefts to get driven back, and he slips in an uppercut. Taira swings a right hand into a takedown, and he puts Royval on his seat with three and a half minutes left in the round. Taira moves to north-south position with Royval pushing his heels off the fence to flip around. Taira nearly gets the back, but Royval reverses the position and pursues his own takedown to place Taira on his seat. Royval holds on from behind as Taira stands, and he elevates and slams the Japanese fighter down. Royval jumps on the back as Taira gets to his feet again, and slides off in a hurry. Taira breaks the grip and separates, and Royval walks him down and bloodies his foe’s nose. Taira loads up on power strikes, and Royval’s straight left remains a money punch. Royval seems to land cleanly whenever he wishes, and Taira dives after a desperate single but Royval stops it and knees his foe in the chest. Royval breaks free again and rails Taira with a step-in knee, and Taira knocks him back with a big right hand. Royval gets back in his face with a series of punches, and he gets pushed over when spinning back. Taira shoots for a double, and Royval jumps guard with a guillotine choke that he uses to roll into full mount. Royval sits up and lets Taira turn over to take his back, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke. Royval gets the body triangle at the same time, and he cranks on the neck. The neck crank does not get a tap, and tough as nails Taira survives to turn himself over. The final horn blares, and this back-and-forth battle comes to a close in an easy “Fight of the Night” candidate and one possibly worthy of “Fight of the Year” consideration. No matter who picks up the win, these two put on a show and stamp their places in the elite echelon of the 125-pound division.
Springing the upset, Royval showers his defeated opponent with compliments, while saying that he would be happy to do anything to further Taira’s career—a fighter that he confidently proclaims will be a champion one day. Royval states he alone deserves the next title shot at flyweight, due to wins over top-five talents Brandon Moreno, Kai Kara-France and now Taira. He asks to be backup for the Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Asakura championship bout, or offers to fight in hostile territory to beat either man in their home country after UFC 310. If he gets the next crack at gold, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Tatsuro Taira via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Brandon Royval, calling himself a Tatsuro Taira hater. He notes that Taira is undefeated but hasn't beaten top competition, and that Royval's pressure and experience will be too much. He mentions Royval's win over Brandon Moreno and his ability to land strikes even when taken down. Angelo bet half a unit on Royval at +170 and is also considering a plus 5.5 bet.
Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira to win by decision. He notes that if it were a three-round fight, he'd be more confident, but the five rounds give him pause due to Royval's elite cardio and durability. However, Royval has terrible takedown defense (40%), and Taira's grappling control is elite. He compares it to Royval's fight with Pantoja, where Pantoja controlled him on the ground. Brady believes Taira can get takedowns at will and control rounds, though rounds 4-5 could get interesting. He expects Taira to win at least three rounds.
Cody believes Taira is a believer after his performance against Royval, showing improved striking, timing, physicality, and elite grappling. He notes Taira's ability to take down Royval six times and control him, despite Royval's scrambling and cardio. Cody sees Taira as more polished and refined than Park, with five-round experience and superior competition level. He expects Taira to roll through Park.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Royval's defensive wrestling is nonexistent and that Taira's grappling is a huge advantage. He notes that Royval's recent striking approach is static and ineffective, and that Taira should be able to take him down and control the fight. Connor is confident Taira wins unless he fights poorly.
Daniel acknowledges Taira's immense talent and undefeated record but questions if he's ready for a top-five test at age 24. He notes Royval's proven durability, pace, and experience against elite competition like Moreno and Pantoja. Daniel is tempted by the plus-190 odds on Royval and believes Taira may need to pay his dues first. He emphasizes that Royval gets better as fights progress and that Taira hasn't faced anyone with Royval's relentless pressure.
The host looked for a reason to take Royval as a big underdog but couldn't due to Taira's control and grappling. Royval is more disciplined but will struggle when Taira crashes the pocket and wraps him up. The host is not super high on Taira's chalk and prefers the over 3.5 rounds, but expects Taira to control the majority of the fight via grappling and win on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Taira's striking improvement and elite grappling. He highlights Taira's ability to get to the back and control opponents, and his five-round experience against top competition. Paul thinks Taira wins more often than not even at a sizable favorite price.
The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval as an upset, citing his scrambling ability, pressure, and durability. He questions Taira's hype, noting close fights with Perez and Shevchenko, and believes Royval can make Taira break in a five-round fight. He expects Royval to win by late-round TKO, as Taira hasn't faced someone as lanky and rangy, and Royval has shown he can hang with top flyweights like Pantoja and Moreno.
Zane picks Taira because Royval's defensive wrestling is terrible and Taira is a good takedown artist with dangerous ground control. He notes that Royval's striking volume is often ineffective and that Taira can find takedowns consistently. Zane believes Royval's only path is if Taira fights terribly, but otherwise Taira should win.
Feb 24, 2024
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 112 of 211 | 53% | 119 of 219 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 145 of 510 | 28% | 177 of 556 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 12 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 18 of 87 | 20% | 22 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 25 of 79 | 31% | 26 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 49 of 161 | 30% | 60 of 179 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 41 of 140 | 29% | 57 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 112 of 211 | 53% | 48 of 127 | 37 of 51 | 27 of 33 | 103 of 191 | 7 of 17 | 2 of 3 |
| Brandon Moreno | 145 of 510 | 28% | 97 of 437 | 38 of 54 | 10 of 19 | 142 of 504 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 15 of 23 | 65% | 6 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Moreno | 12 of 43 | 27% | 6 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 11 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 22 of 45 | 48% | 13 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Brandon Moreno | 18 of 87 | 20% | 7 of 66 | 8 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 17 of 31 | 54% | 7 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Brandon Moreno | 25 of 79 | 31% | 13 of 61 | 8 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 24 of 76 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 29 of 58 | 50% | 7 of 27 | 13 of 20 | 9 of 11 | 28 of 54 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Moreno | 49 of 161 | 30% | 37 of 147 | 11 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 48 of 159 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 29 of 54 | 53% | 15 of 34 | 10 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 46 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Moreno | 41 of 140 | 29% | 34 of 132 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (5)
Angelo is very confident in Moreno, citing his pace, toughness, and improvement since their last fight. He believes Moreno is better everywhere and will eventually break Royval, likely in the fourth or fifth round. He notes Moreno already won this fight once and will do it again at home.
Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He notes that Moreno has never been finished in 30 fights, which is crucial against a finisher like Royval. He believes Moreno has more paths to win, especially by taking the fight to the mat where Royval has poor takedown defense (40%). He thinks Moreno can control Royval on the ground and potentially submit him, but leans toward a decision. He questions Royval's ability to win a decision or finish Moreno.
Cody picks Moreno, citing Moreno's cast-iron chin, takedown ability, and the fact that Royval is coming in on short notice after a five-round war with Pantoja eight weeks ago. He notes Royval's takedown defense is a serious problem and that Moreno already beat him once. He acknowledges the line is justifiable and is not playing contrarian.
The host expects Moreno to replicate his first fight strategy by using his wrestling advantage to control Royval on the ground. He notes Moreno's good submission defense against Royval's aggressive style. Even if the fight stays standing, Moreno is the more technical striker. He predicts Moreno will grind out a decision victory.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moreno. He highlights Moreno's cast-iron durability as kryptonite to Royval's game, and notes that Moreno's ability to mix in takedowns will secure rounds in front of a hometown crowd. He also mentions Royval's short-notice turnaround and the altitude disadvantage, though Royval trains in Denver.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 95 of 156 | 60% | 126 of 195 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 15:51 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 111 of 204 | 54% | 281 of 390 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 27 of 40 | 67% | 29 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 24 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 80 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 23 of 38 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 63 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:06 | |
| 4 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:21 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 28 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:31 | |
| 5 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 41 of 74 | 55% | 49 of 82 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 55 of 98 | 56% | 70 of 115 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 95 of 156 | 60% | 49 of 101 | 22 of 30 | 24 of 25 | 74 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 20 |
| Brandon Royval | 111 of 204 | 54% | 102 of 193 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 91 of 177 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 27 of 40 | 67% | 9 of 19 | 10 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 |
| Brandon Royval | 13 of 30 | 43% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 10 of 15 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Brandon Royval | 12 of 16 | 75% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 17 of 26 | 65% | 5 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Royval | 24 of 46 | 52% | 21 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 4 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Royval | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | |
| 5 | Alexandre Pantoja | 41 of 74 | 55% | 30 of 59 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 10 | 34 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Brandon Royval | 55 of 98 | 56% | 54 of 95 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 53 of 96 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Pantoja to win by finish in the third or fourth round, citing Pantoja's grappling advantage and Royval's low takedown defense. He notes that Pantoja already won the rematch two years ago and expects a similar outcome. He has a 'good size bet' on Pantoja.
Big Brady picks Pantoja to win by first-round submission, recalling their first fight where Pantoja was exhausted but capitalized on a Royval mistake to choke him out. He notes Royval's poor striking defense (50% striking defense) and tendency to make mistakes on the mat, giving up his back and position. Brady believes Pantoja's submission game is elite and that Royval cannot afford errors at this level. He expects an exciting banger but sees Pantoja finding a finish early.
Cody picks Royval as an underdog, citing his chaotic style, improved striking, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes that Royval trains at altitude in Denver and has solid cardio, while Pantoja's cardio is overblown but his body language looks tired. Cody acknowledges the risk: Royval has durability issues and was submitted by Pantoja before, but at +160 he sees value.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brandon Royval as an upset, attributing Royval's loss in the first fight to a rushed return from injury. He believes Royval's striking has improved and that his scrambles will keep the fight on the feet. Vreeland notes Royval's recent wins over Matt Schnell and Kai Kara-France by submission show his dangerous ground game. He thinks Royval can hang with Pantoja on the feet and win the rematch.
Jeff Fox picks Alexandre Pantoja, stating he is the better fighter overall and has already beaten Royval. He questions the quality of Royval's recent opponents, noting that Pantoja has faced tougher competition. Fox believes Pantoja will successfully defend his title for the first time.
Lucrative James picks Brandon Royval outright. He believes Royval was breaking Pantoja in their first fight before getting submitted, and he thinks Royval's pace is the highest at flyweight. He argues that Pantoja may have been breaking and that Royval's motivation is higher as the challenger. He acknowledges Pantoja's submission threat but feels the value is on Royval as an underdog.
The host favors Pantoja due to his discipline, technique, and masterful Jiu-Jitsu, which he believes will be too much for Royval's chaotic style. He notes that in their first fight, Pantoja consistently secured Royval's back and eventually got a rear-naked choke. He also points out Royval's poor takedown defense and expects Pantoja to get the fight to the ground and find a submission. He acknowledges Royval's upset potential but trusts the more reliable fighter.
Paul picks Pantoja, arguing that Royval's level of competition is lower and that Pantoja has never been finished. He points to Pantoja's performance against Brandon Moreno where he landed 129 significant strikes, a knockdown, and six takedowns. Paul believes Pantoja's cardio issues are overblown and that Royval tends to fade in dogfights, while Pantoja is an absolute dog.
The Guru picks Pantoja over Royval, noting Pantoja's improved ground control and back-taking ability, as seen against Moreno and Perez. He acknowledges Royval's scrambling but believes Pantoja's chin is solid and Royval is hittable. He predicts Pantoja will knock down Royval and secure a rear-naked choke in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nicolau (-210), Royval (+180)
Round 1
Other than the main event, this flyweight pairing buried on the prelims likely has the most immediate championship upside. Winner of two straight, Royval (14-6, 4-2 UFC) goes for broke against surging Brazilian Nicolau (19-2-1, 7-1 UFC), who has claimed four straight victories in the Octagon. In front of referee Nick Berens, the speedsters bump fists, and it’s on. Royval reaches with many right hands to find his distance right out of the gate, and Nicolau lets him do this and holds up his hands to make it seem like Royval is hitting ungloved mitts. Royval is the aggressor, but Nicolau is extremely light on his feet and dodges what Royval throws at him early. Royval steps-in with a few fake kicks, and his short jabs draw reactions out of his opponent until Nicolau revs up his engine and tags Royval with a single right hand. Royval gives chase as Nicolau is fast at avoiding what he throws, and he watches out from a single strike that lunges at him from the Brazilian. Nicolau lulls Royval into a pattern, and he charges forward while readying a left hook.
As he does, Royval intercepts him with a picture-perfect knee that clacks into Nicolau’s jaw. Nicolau drops to his hands, and Royval bowls him over with two hooks to push Nicolau to his back. “Raw Dawg” goes hard, pulverizing the downed, doomed Nicolau with a torrent of elbows. As Royval continues to smash, Nicolau goes out, and Berens jumps between them and halts the fight.
What a terrific knockout for the Factory X fighter, who calls for a title shot after his victorious performance. Meanwhile, Royval successfully shatters the six-fight win streak of the Brazilian with that knockout.
The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Matheus Nicolau R1 2:09 via KO (Knee and Elbows)
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking and methodical grappling. He believes Nicolau's technical striking will overcome Royval's chaos, and that Royval won't be able to take Nicolau down, making it a kickboxing match where Nicolau shines. He notes Royval was dropped badly by Schnell. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Nicolau at -155.
Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He describes Royval as a wild, unique fighter who thrives in chaos, while Nicolau is calm and composed. He believes Royval's style will force a brawl, and notes Nicolau has been knocked out before. He expects fireworks and a finish.
Cody thinks Nicolau is technically sound and should weather Royval's early chaos. He notes Royval is dangerous early but tends to fade and is injury-prone. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Nicolau's counter striking is excellently timed and that he has the wrestling to handle Royval's scrambles. He also notes that Nicolau is a solid positional grappler and can be the one with key switch-ups.
Royval's chaos and output will overwhelm Nicolau, who tends to have close fights and low output. Royval's scrambling and submission threat create opportunities. Nicolau's discipline may crack under pressure. Royval can finish inside the distance, as his style leads to finishes. Under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.
Paul agrees, calling Royval 'frail' and noting his tendency to get finished. He thinks Nicolau's accurate counter-striking and durability will lead to a finish or clear decision. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, praising his technical, composed style and BJJ background. He believes Nicolau will read Royval's wild, tornado-like approach and make him pay, potentially by submission or KO. He notes Royval's size and unpredictability but thinks Nicolau's polish and 93% takedown defense will be decisive.
Zane picks Nicolau because he is a cleaner fighter and a better counter puncher. He notes that Nicolau has the wrestling component to his counter game, which gives him an option to interrupt Royval's relentless pressure. He also mentions that Nicolau is a bigger striker with excellent timing and can handle Royval's grappling.
May 07, 2022
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 14 of 39 | 35% | 9 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Matt Schnell | 12 of 33 | 36% | 9 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 14 of 39 | 35% | 9 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Matt Schnell | 12 of 33 | 36% | 9 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Royval (-240), Schnell (+195)
Round 1
The opener of the prelim card – which differs slightly from the early preliminaries even if they remain on the same network – is sure to be a wild one for as long as it lasts. All-action Royval (13-6, 3-2 UFC) ended the first two-fight skid of his career in January by claiming a decision over Rogerio Bontorin, while Schnell (15-5, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) will be returning to action for the first time in nearly a year since he also took on Bontorin. Of note, while Schnell did drop a decision to Bontorin that night, Bontorin tested positive for banned supplements and the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation overturned it to a no contest. Both looking to get the taste of Bontorin out of their mouths, so to speak, they touch gloves in front of referee Ryan Brueggeman to move along in their careers. Schnell starts off with a barrage of punches, and Royval greets him with punches and a head kick of his own. Royval steps in with a knee to back Schnell off, and Royval slings a few head kicks for good measure. Royval goes low and then high with kicks, and Schnell walks through them to launch a right hand. These two flyweights are swinging for the fences early, and both are connecting frequently. Schnell snaps the head back with a left hand, and Royval responds with a left of his own. Schnell bears down on him and drills Royval with a right hand, and Royval hits the ground and immediately goes fishing for a leglock. Royval rolls for a heel hook, and Schnell turns all his way around and through it to lower himself to the mat on top. Royval sets up an omoplata shoulder lock to force a sweep, and Schnell wrenches his arm free and snags hold of a guillotine choke. Royval rolls through it and looks for a brabo choke.
This does not land, so “Raw Dawg” turns it to a guillotine choke. As soon as he cinches it up, he pulls guard and locks a leg around Schnell’s waist. The grip from Royval is so crushingly tight that Schnell thinks about fighting out of it, and suddenly realizes he is in grave danger and taps out with both hands.
Brueggeman takes a moment to register the taps, and he jumps in to separate the fighters after their short but memorable thriller.
The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Matt Schnell R1 2:14 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Brandon Royval, citing his forward pressure and sneaky grappling as the difference. He notes that both fighters are willing to bang but Royval is a better pure grappler. He expects a potential fight of the night.
Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He believes this is a nightmare matchup for Schnell because Royval will force a brawl, and Schnell has a history of being knocked out (by Font, Sandoval, Pantoja). Schnell has changed his style to be more cautious, but Royval's pressure will drag him into a war. Royval has the striking advantage, durability, and dangerous ground game. Schnell is not a strong offensive wrestler, so he cannot exploit Royval's poor takedown defense. Brady expects Royval to finish Schnell in brutal fashion in the first round.
Cody picks Brandon Royval, noting that Schnell's chin is suspect and Royval's unorthodox striking and grappling are at a higher level. He points out that Royval has wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France, while Schnell has beaten lower-level opposition. Cody believes Royval can win standing or on the ground, and expects a stoppage. He is confident in Royval as one of his key plays.
Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Royval's pace, pressure, and opportunistic submissions. He notes Schnell is technically sound but lacks durability and takedown ability. He considers a KO prop for Royval at +460 but does not pull the trigger.
The host picks Royval to win but prefers betting the under 2.5 rounds at -145. He highlights Royval's chaotic style that overwhelms opponents, using the Kai Kara-France fight as an example. He notes Schnell is technically better but will struggle with Royval's pace and unpredictability. He acknowledges Royval leaves himself vulnerable to submissions, but expects the fight to end inside the distance, likely with Royval winning. He is concerned about Royval's price at -235 and prefers the under.
Paul picks Brandon Royval and is also interested in the under 2.5 rounds. He notes that Schnell has chin issues and Royval's volume and pace could clip him. Paul thinks Royval can get a finish, but also acknowledges that Royval's own pace could lead to him wilting. He likes the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop and plans to parlay it with the Cerrone-Lauzon under.
The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval, citing his wildness and finishing ability. He notes Royval has good submissions and KO power, and believes he will bait Schnell into a scrap and catch him. He criticizes Schnell's chin and predictable style. He predicts a first-round TKO, possibly via spinning elbow.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 40 of 132 | 30% | 81 of 174 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 28 of 58 | 48% | 39 of 71 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 7:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 9 of 50 | 18% | 18 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 10 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 19 of 59 | 32% | 43 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 19 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 40 of 132 | 30% | 21 of 96 | 15 of 25 | 4 of 11 | 28 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 28 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 28 of 58 | 48% | 16 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 10 | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 9 of 50 | 18% | 3 of 30 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 7 | 7 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 10 of 20 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 12 of 23 | 52% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 19 of 59 | 32% | 11 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 9 of 24 | 37% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In another flyweight tilt with likely title implications, it’s the men’s turn as Royval and Bontorin take to the cage.
Mark Smith
is the third man in the cage, making sure both men are as safe as possible and protect themselves at all times. The much taller Royval is the aggressor early, coming forward and pumping out a long jab. Bontorin lands a low kick that sweeps Royval completely off his feet, but he bounces back up a split-second later. Royval is back to throwing southpaw jabs, as Bontorin comes forward as looks to be measuring him for a left-hand counter over the jab. Royval with a long front kick to the midsection, but Bontorin steps in behind it and hoists the Factory X fighter for a takedown. Bontorin lands in side control and looks to wrap up Royval’s upper body. Royval tries to get to guard, but can’t manage it. A moment later he spins out and stands up. Bontorin comes forward and eats a three-punch combination. A minute left, Bontorin charges in and takes Royval’s back standing, is denied the big slam but does haul Royval to the ground, where he sets up in the American’s guard. Royval slides out and again escapes to his feet. A frenetic first round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 2
Bontorin lands a left hand that knocks Royval off-balance, and finishes by hustling him to the floor. Bontorin is in Royval’s guard, but Royval is scrambling furiously. Royval wriggles out, but Bontorin takes his back and secures his hooks. Royval keeps moving, though, and another scramble ensues. Bontorin lands in guard again, and Royval immediately looks for an omoplata. Royval scoots back to the fence and stands, Bontorin still glued to him. Bontorin tries to move to the back, but Royval slips out and disengages. Bontorin lands a hard right that puts Royval on his seat, partly due to a trip or slip. He gives chase and ends up on Royval’s back once more. Royval stands back up and tries an inside switch, but Bontorin is still holding onto a body lock. Royval escapes again and they resume striking. Royval walks right into a left hand that has him stumbling backward. Bontorin uses another body lock to slam the taller man to the canvas. The horn sounds on another furious five minutes.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Round 3
Royval is coming forward to open Round 3, throwing hard jabs and left crosses. Bontorin catches a kick and tips Royval over, but lets him stand a moment later. Royval rejects a clinch attempt, but Bontorin crashes right back into the pocket and elevates him for an easy takedown. Royval uses an unorthodox guard to trap Bontorin’s left arm, then tries an armbar. It’s deep, and Bontorin appears almost to tap, but they fight on and he extricates his arm a moment later. Royval rolls away, but Bontorin jumps right back on him and ends up on top. He’s looking to take the back, but Royval sweeps him quickly. Bontorin may be fatiguing, because his huge strength advantage on the floor in the first two rounds is nowhere to be seen. Royval on top in half-guard with a minute left. Royval is looking to pass, throwing short punches and shoulder strikes. Bontorin seems content to control Royval’s posture, but a moment later Royval arches up and throws a stream of elbows, which go right until the final horn. Great back-and-forth fight!
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Royval (29-28 Royval)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval (29-28 Bontorin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval (29-28 Royval)
The Official Result
Brandon Royval
def.
Rogerio Bontorin
via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Royval but worries about his wildness leading to a submission loss. He notes Royval is the better striker and more well-rounded, while Bontorin is the better grappler with more power. He placed a prop bet on Bontorin 'wins inside distance or decision no action' at +165, meaning if Bontorin loses a decision he gets a refund.
Big Brady highlights Royval's striking volume and pace as key advantages, noting Bontorin has low output and poor striking defense. He believes Royval's cardio will be decisive, especially since Bontorin struggles with weight cuts and has slowed down in the past. He predicts Royval will finish Bontorin by knockout in the second or third round after Bontorin fades.
Cody picks Royval, emphasizing his furious pace, crafty grappling, and ability to recover from adversity. He notes Bontorin's weight cut issues and tendency to fade. He expects Royval to win by submission or TKO as Bontorin gasses. He calls it a potential fight of the night.
Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval to outwork Bontorin. He notes that Bontorin cuts massive weight and tends to fatigue, while Royval pushes a relentless pace. Levi acknowledges Bontorin's explosiveness and black belt jiu-jitsu but believes Royval's scrambling and get-ups will neutralize takedowns. He also mentions Royval's chin and durability, though he has defensive flaws. Levi considers the line accurate and sees no value on either side, but picks Royval to win.
The host is high on Brandon Royval's chaotic style and pressure, believing he will overwhelm Bontorin, especially given Bontorin's difficult weight cut to 125 lbs. He expects Royval to drag Bontorin into deep waters, wearing him down with forward pressure and activity. The host sees a finish likely in the second or third round via TKO as Bontorin fades. He notes Bontorin's BJJ is a threat but thinks Royval's chaos and cardio will prevail.
Paul picks Royval, praising his scrambling, submission threats off his back, and superior striking. He notes Bontorin has good BJJ but fades in scrambles and has cardio issues. He expects Royval's pace to overwhelm Bontorin, leading to a finish inside two and a half rounds. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds is juiced but still likely.
The MMA Guru picks Bontorin as one of his bigger underdogs on the card. He highlights Royval's habit of turning his back and giving up rear-naked chokes, as seen against Pantoja and Moreno. Bontorin has strong grappling and submission skills, and he was dominating Kai Kara-France before getting caught. He also notes that Bontorin may come in heavier if he misses weight. He predicts a scrappy first round where Royval may have success, but then Bontorin will jump on a standing rear-naked choke in the second round after Royval gives up his back again.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 23 of 41 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 61 | 27% | 27 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 14 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 19 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 3 of 22 | 13% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 22 of 40 | 55% | 19 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Royval | 17 of 61 | 27% | 12 of 53 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 17 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 13 of 25 | 52% | 12 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Royval | 14 of 39 | 35% | 9 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 9 of 15 | 60% | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brandon Royval | 3 of 22 | 13% | 3 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pantoja (-185), Royval (+154)
Round 1
In August 2021, Pantoja (26-5, 10-3 UFC) and Royval (15-6, 5-2 UFC) came to blows on the main card opener of UFC on ESPN 29. The two battled violently until Pantoja slapped on a rear-naked choke and sealed the deal less than two minutes into Round 2. Since then, “The Cannibal” went on to win the flyweight strap, and Royval won three straight to earn a crack at gold. These elite 125-pounders will have upwards of 25 minutes to determine the victor in this rematch, and they will have referee Marc Goddard keeping a watchful eye on the action. With plenty of respect for one another, the two gladly touch gloves when brought to the center of the cage for their final instructions. Pantoja practically sprints out of his corner, attacking the challenger with a long stream of punches and a high kick. Royval backs off until he doesn’t, and he sits down with a kick to the body. Pantoja chips away at Royval’s lead leg with powerful strikes, and Royval changes stances and backs away. Pantoja aggressively charges, backing Royval up to the wall while dodging a big right hand. Royval scores a right hand, and Pantoja gives him back a kick to the ribs. Pantoja lands another body kick, and he hops away when Royval lifts up a front kick his direction. Pantoja evades a head kick, and he resets to land a low kick and then one to the side. Royval comes up short with two hooks, and Pantoja ducks down and scoops “Raw Dawg” off the ground to dump him on the mat. Pantoja climbs right into half guard, and he takes an illegal upkick on the jaw that backs him off. Goddard warns Royval, and Pantoja stands up and absorbs a few legal upkicks before lowering himself into the guard. Royval flails from off his back, with kicks and punches, and Pantoja hammers him with standing-to-ground punches. Pantoja calms himself down momentarily, and Royval gets away with a fence grab in an effort to flip the champion over. Royval again grabs his fingers and toes in the cage, and he gets warned for it once more. Pantoja shifts over to top position, where he slices into full mount and starts landing ground-and-pound. Royval pushes off and stands up with 30 seconds to spare, and he lets go with a head kick and a left hand. Pantoja shakes it off and slams his shin in the body. They trade big punches, and Pantoja ends the round with a low kick.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Round 2
The flyweights meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Royval circles all the way around his foe but gets nailed with a huge right hand. Pantoja follows it up with a body kick, as Royval is reeling. Royval aims a kick back at him, but Pantoja lets him have it with another few punches before pushing him to the wall. They decide not to clinch any longer, and they get back to kickboxing range. Royval tries to time a step-in knee when Pantoja shoots in for a takedown, but Pantoja takes him off his feet and is quick to move to half guard. Pantoja wriggles in an effort to shift into full mount, but he retains heavy top pressure when he does not pass. Royval punches any target he can find off his back, as Pantoja simply lays on top of him for at least a full minute. Pantoja springs back to life and jumps over to sneakily jump to side control, and he attempts to trap Royval’s arm down. Royval spams Donkey Kong punches to the sides of Pantoja’s head, and Pantoja opens up with heavy ground-and-pound, bouncing Royval’s head off the floor. Pantoja backs off, and Royval follows him and walks into a clubbing right hand. Royval’s legs turn to rubber as he tries to walk away, and Pantoja lets him off the hook and does not take advantage of just how hurt the challenger is. Instead, he lets Royval kick at him, so he can take Royval to the mat. Royval gets a bit of space with upkicks until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Round 3
There is a speedy tap of the fists to get things going, and again Royval circles completely around his opponent. Pantoja allows him to do this before belting him in the face with a high kick. Pantoja lands a few punches, and Royval’s knees are still a bit weak. Pantoja ducks and shoots for a takedown, cleanly taking “Raw Dawg” off his feet and down to the canvas. Pantoja steps into full mount, and he locks down an arm-triangle choke. Royval turns to his side to follow the submission, and Pantoja looks to take his back and slides off the back. Royval cannot maintain top position for more than a couple seconds, before he springs back up to his feet. Pantoja appears slightly fatigued when upright, while Royval looks fresh as a daisy. Pantoja laces a kick to the ribs, and he scores a right hand when Royval steps in for a knee. Pantoja ducks a right hand to pursue a single, and Royval backs himself against the wire to stuff it. Royval escapes, and he strafes away from lunging, labored single punches from the champion. Pantoja lands two leg kicks and one to the body, and Royval looks to get his boxing going. Pantoja stands firm to land two big right hands after Royval gets one in, and Royval digs a kick to the body and stuffs a takedown. Pantoja swings and misses, and kicks the leg a few times. Royval splits the guard several times with sharp jabs, and he drills Pantoja with a stern knee. This prompts Pantoja to going after and easily hitting a takedown, where he practically lands right in half guard. Pantoja lands punches from above while Royval throws anything he has off his back, and he considers an arm-triangle choke with seconds to spare. Instead, the two slug it out horizontally, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Round 4
Pantoja starts off the round after a glove touch by shooting for a takedown, and he gets it effortlessly. Royval looks to keep Pantoja from moving to a dominant position, but Pantoja slides over to three-quarter mount. Royval spins, and this puts him into a worse position as Pantoja takes his back and locks up a body triangle. Pantoja immediately starts looking for a submission, and Royval pulls his toes off the fence to try to improve his position. Royval punches from behind, and he walks all the way up and down the fence, to no avail. Pantoja continues his tight squeeze on the midsection, and he sneaks his left arm over the face to threaten with a crank. Pantoja switches the hands, and goes palm-to-palm to torque a neck crank. Royval fights the hands to free himself from the submission danger, and he turns with every bit of his energy to spin through a body triangle but does not quite make it all the way around. Pantoja keeps threatening with one arm or the other, and Royval is aware of the submission attempts and protects against them. Pantoja looks to turn things over in mount and go after an arm-triangle choke, and Royval frantically turns him over with 20 seconds to go. Royval sits up to start clubbing the champ with punches and elbows, and Pantoja rolls for a leglock. Pantoja hangs on to a potential submission that is not there, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Round 5
The flyweights meet in the middle to start off the final round, and fists are immediately traded. Pantoja throws back slower but still with power, and Royval sits down on every one of his punches in an effort to knock the champ’s head off. Royval cracks his foe with uppercuts and looping punches, and Pantoja gets stung in a few exchanges but throws back with a few leg kicks. Royval is far fresher, and he connects at a torrid pace but cannot do enough damage to make Pantoja think twice. Royval gets tied up in a clinch, and he elbows of the break and throws three punches into a spinning back fist. Pantoja slaps two leg kicks home, and Royval spams jabs. Pantoja thumps the body with a kick, and they both trade leather in rapid succession. Pantoja punches his way into a takedown, and he sucks out the hips but does not get Royval down all the way. “Raw Dawg” sprawls and turns, but Pantoja follows him and hits the takedown he was seeking. Pantoja shifts over to half guard, and he shuts down a turning, flailing, wriggling Royval at every stage. The champ sits up and lands a few punches, aiming strikes to the body when not to the head. Royval tries to scramble madly, and Pantoja’s smothering top control disables this from succeeding. Pantoja steps over to half guard on the other side as soon as Royval gets a moment to breathe, and he moves into mount with 25 seconds left in the match. Royval turns over for one final effort to get up, but Pantoja sits on him and drives several hammerfists into his skull before the fight comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja (50-45 Pantoja)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja (49-46 Pantoja)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja (50-45 Pantoja)
The Official Result
Alexandre Pantoja def. Brandon Royval via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
Expert Picks (5)
Big Brady picks Brandon Royval after initially leaning towards Pantoja. He switched after noticing Pantoja's gas tank issues, as he slows down in the third round. He believes Royval's unorthodox style and size advantage can make it competitive, and he can take over in the third round. He predicts a split decision win for Royval.
Cody picks Pantoja, citing his well-rounded game, BJJ black belt, and experience against top competition. He questions Royval's cardio and durability, noting Royval gassed against Moreno. He believes Pantoja can grind out a win if it goes the distance.
Royval thrives in chaos and will push a pace that may expose Pantoja's cardio issues. Pantoja is the more skilled fighter, but Royval's wild style can lead to finishes. I'm leaning Royval by TKO or submission in the second or third round, and I like the under 2.5 rounds.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pantoja. He notes Royval's flashy style but questions his ability to finish Pantoja early. He believes Pantoja's durability and grappling will be too much for Royval over three rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Alexandre Pantoja to win by first-round submission (rear-naked choke). He notes Pantoja's power, experience, and ability to finish. He expects Royval's wild style to leave him open, and Pantoja will hurt him with a punch then sink in a choke. He also mentions Pantoja's reach advantage for his height and his wins over Brandon Moreno.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 53 of 73 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 24 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 53 of 73 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 24 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Brandon Royval | 17 of 52 | 32% | 7 of 38 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Brandon Royval | 17 of 52 | 32% | 7 of 38 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moreno (-270), Royval (+220)
Round 1
In 2020, a victory over Royval (15-7, 5-3 UFC) catapulted “The Assassin Baby” Moreno (21-7-2, 9-4-2 UFC) into his championship run, when he stopped “Raw Dawg” late in the first round potentially due to a shoulder injury. This rematch was not originally the plan for the UFC, but with Amir Albazi’s withdrawal, Royval was glad to step in even if he thought it was going to be a vacation. Referee Herb Dean will be serving umbrella drinks through the course of their 25-minute flyweight encounter. The two Brandons come together and bump gloves, intense and fired up to tangle again. Royval wanders forward, dropping his hands on the way in, but he picks them back up when he gets into striking range. Royval partially lands a high body kick to lead off after nearly 30 seconds of inactivity, and he throws another kick that makes Moreno stumble and awkwardly bounce off the fencing. Moreno gathers himself and sweeps low with a kick. Royval lands a jab and a body kick, and Moreno times an inside leg kick while Royval’s other leg is in the air. Royval chases Moreno down, with Moreno circling from side to side, and Dean tells them to engage twice. Moreno catches a body kick and whips a left hook over the top, and Royval smoothly dodges it. Royval whips a kick that misses, and he falls to his backside and scrambles back up. Royval stumbles while springing forward, and Moreno kicks at his lead leg. Royval lets go with a kick to the chest, as he shakes his legs out. Moreno swings wide as Royval backs off, and Moreno goes back with another kick to the lead leg. Moreno attempts another windmilling right hand, and Royval parries it. Royval stalks Moreno down, pawing out jabs and a partial front kick. Royval lands a front-side body kick, and Moreno rings his bell with two hooks in a counter. Royval connects with a solid right hand, and Moreno stumbles strangely and looks to the fence behind him to make sure of where he is in the cage. Moreno intercepts his foe with a big right hook, and Royval shakes it off and keeps coming after his opponent. Royval surges ahead with six kicks, and he backs off and checks a leg kick square on his shin. The two clash together and appear to bang heads together, and Royval drops to a knee and climbs back up to throw hands. Moreno looses two punches to make Royval think twice of engaging recklessly, and Royval walks towards him and kicks him in the ribs. Royval lands another body kick and takes a left hand behind the ear, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 2
Royval leads off the round by throwing a body kick from his left leg, which may have taken some damage in the last round. He shows no ill effect, and he chops down Moreno’s calf with that same leg. Moreno winds up a huge right hand and beans Royval, but Royval takes it flush and keeps on coming. Moreno connects with a sharp jab, and he catches a body kick and drills Royval with a left hook. Royval swipes out with two big punches, and he scores one more kick to the side. Royval continues to target the body, and he leans back from the swinging fists zooming at him from the former champ. Moreno whips two more big punches, and Royval jabs him while Moreno is looping the shots. Royval blitzes, hands down, and he gets popped by Moreno with a right hand and still manages to get his own strikes off. Moreno throws his two hook combo, and Royval times it and lines up three punches short before Moreno can reach him or make him pay. Royval sticks out a jab, and he drives a knee in the chin much to Moreno’s displeasure. Royval resets and kicks the body and lead leg, and he continues to fish for a jab. Moreno bites down on his mouthpiece and slugs it out, and Royval’s head gets knocked around but he slugs right back. A mouse forms on the side of Royval’s eye as Moreno’s left hands hard, and Royval chains retaliatory punches to the head and body. Moreno telegraphs a punch and lands a low kick to follow, and he eats a sharp jab and takes a body kick flush on the belly. Royval connects with a knee to the body, and he finds his range when Moreno throws heavy at him. Moreno shoots in for a single, and he succeeds in driving Royval to the ground. Royval scrambles like a madman, flipping himself all the way over as he searches for a triangle choke, then an armbar, and then an omoplata to a Gogoplata. Moreno stands up to get away from the danger, and he whiffs on a huge right hand as Royval follows him. The horn sounds, and Royval grimaces while lifting up his left leg.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 3
The flyweights clap hands to get started, and Royval follows Moreno around like before while flicking out jabs. Royval goes low with two kicks, and Moreno looks down to the ground to make sure he is not running into the cage again. Moreno gives one low kick back, and he throws one up high only to be blocked. Royval crowds Moreno with pressure but cannot corner him, and he feints and fakes to try to get Moreno to bite on something. Royval lands a body kick while Moreno circles to his right, and he strings four punches together that pound off the guard. Royval lands another body kick, and Moreno replies by taking him down. Royval scrambles to work his way up, and Moreno follows him upright to take the back. Royval sprints away from the grip around his waist, and he absorbs a leg kick on the way out. “Raw Dawg” adjusts his shorts and fires a body kick that bounces off the side of Moreno’s cup. Dean acknowledges the foul and allows Moreno to recover, and the former champ takes 40 seconds to get his wind back before he is good to go. Royval starts off on the restart with four punches and a kick, and Moreno kicks him upside the head. Royval staggers and shakes his head as if to say he was not impacted, and he lands heavy shots from afar on Moreno’s head, body and lead leg. Moreno eats a few calf kick and body shots, and he comes up short on a big overhand right counter and a swatting left. Royval jabs through the guard, and he gets clubbed with a forearm that puts him on the floor for a second. Royval springs back up, ties Moreno up and lands a handful of strikes on the break. Royval scores a body kick, and Moreno catches it but releases it when he can do nothing with it. Royval lands body shots into head shots, and Moreno shells up from all of them but the finalizing leg kick. Moreno misses the mark on a big right hand, and his leg kick connects cleanly. Royval shoots in to catch Moreno off-guard, and Moreno stuffs it and kicks the lead leg. Royval puts a few punches together to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 4
Royval’s left foot has swelled up like a small balloon, but he pays it no mind when the fight resumes, as he throws it with impunity. Royval begins even more aggressively than usually, flailing his hands up and down before connecting with a long combination of speedy fists. Moreno chambers and releases a leg kick several times, and Royval tanks it and crowds the former champ to throw punches. Moreno tries to take the fight down, and Royval pushes him over to land on top before they both pop back up. Royval beats Moreno to the punch, and he leans back to avoid the counter only to get tagged by another heavy leg kick. Moreno has a clubbing right go behind the head, and Royval takes another fierce kick to his thigh before throwing seven punches in a short chain. Moreno kicks the thigh of his opponent, and Royval winces but fires back straight punches and uppercuts. Royval sticks and leans back, and Moreno reaches him with an overhand right. Royval responds in kind, and he blasts Moreno in the belly with a knee before ducking down to hit a double. Moreno resists the first attempt, but Royval sucks his hips out and puts him down for a few seconds. Moreno climbs back up with the wall behind him, and he takes a number of short but effective left hands from Royval. Moreno pushes him away and throws a leg kick that spins Royval all the way around. Royval dodges the kick that had landed so frequently, and he dips out of the way of the overhand right. Royval stands firm and jabs several times, splitting Moreno’s guard and landing a couple shots to the body. Moreno responds with body shots on his own side, and Royval is right in front of him to scores back. Moreno walks into a left hand while charging, and he ducks down and connects cleanly to the body. Moreno follows the body shots with the leg kick, and Royval chases him so fast that Dean has to sprint out of the way so Moreno does not trip over him. Royval stays active, throwing punches right to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 5
This could be anyone’s fight going into the final frame, and the flyweights offer one final glove touch before engaging. Royval prods out jab after jab, pinning his fists on Moreno’s cheek and landing with quick but effective strikes. Moreno pops him with a big overhand right, and he rushes forward to tie Royval up. The heavy right hand from the former champ draws some swelling on the left eye of his opponent, and Dean asks for Moreno to work when Moreno presses on Royval in the clinch. Royval tries tot urn him around, but Moreno wants to grind things out in the body lock. Dean asks them to keep working until he splits them up. Royval immediately gets right to it, with jabs and straight punches. Moreno stands him up with an overhand right, and Royval stands right in front of Moreno and knees him in the chest. Royval kicks the ribs, and he eats a solid right hand. Royval flicks out jab after jab, and he dodges the big shots from Moreno coming his way. Royval sneaks in a knee and snaps the head back with two punches, and he continues to pour it on with stellar volume. Moreno loads up on two hefty punches, and the durability of “Raw Dawg” is on full display. Moreno chases into landing a leg kick and a huge overhand right, and Royval attempts to retaliate only for Moreno to charge him and grip him from behind with a body lock. Dean immediately tells Moreno to do something, and Moreno tries to drag the other Brandon down but cannot do so before separating. Moreno chains a few punches off the body, and Royval stings him with an elbow up close. Moreno throws caution to the wind, with Royval dinging him with punches and a knee to the breadbasket. Moreno ties him up to slow down the onslaught, and he attempts to take Royval down from behind but settles to hold him there. Moreno wings a punch, and Royval throws everything he has left. The two empty their gas tanks with punches, knees, kicks and the kitchen sink, and the horn sounds to end this thrilling flyweight rematch. The Brandons laugh and smile after 25 minutes of la violencia wraps, and they embrace after a hard-fought battle that could go either way. When the result is read, Mexican fighters officially win six of the 10 fights against the world, for a fair showing. After getting his hand raised, Royval has just one name in mind on the microphone: Alexandre Pantoja, to run back a great fight from December. If the UFC decides to make that third fight—not a foregone conclusion, as Royval already has two losses to the champion—we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Brandon Moreno via Split Decision (48-47, 46-49, 48-47)
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He thinks Moreno is the more technical striker and has improved his scrambling and ground game. He notes Royval is hittable and was rocked by Kara-France, but both fighters have never been finished.
Daniel picks Royval as an underdog, citing his impressive performance against Kai Kara-France and his relentless pace. He notes Moreno may be in a letdown spot after beating Formiga. He sees Royval's Muay Thai and jiu-jitsu as advantages, and believes Royval's momentum and volume will carry him.
The host picks Brandon Moreno to win, possibly by second round TKO or submission. He views Moreno as a slightly better version of Royval, with crisper striking and improved jiu-jitsu. He notes the fight is close and recommends the under 2.5 rounds as a bet rather than the moneyline.
The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He cites Moreno's reach advantage, youth, and better competition (Askarov, Formiga). He questions Royval's durability after taking damage against Kai Kara-France and believes Moreno will outclass him with a jab from the outside.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 1 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Kai Kara-France | 2 | 39 of 71 | 54% | 51 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Kai Kara-France | 2 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 43 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 22 of 38 | 57% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 39 of 71 | 54% | 27 of 56 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 34 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 31 of 56 | 55% | 23 of 46 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 49 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 9 of 10 | 90% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kara-France | 8 of 15 | 53% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The lightest men’s division is right around the corner, with two flyweights that both embody the nickname “Don’t Blink.” Kara-France (21-8, 1 NC; 4-1 UFC) is the one with that nickname, but “Raw Dawg” Royval (11-4, 1-0 UFC) is just as ferocious so referee Lukasz Bosacki may have his hands full in this one. They touch gloves before swinging for the fences. Royval immediately throws up a head kick and falls over. The Kiwi does not care, and Royval stands back up and eats a crazy right that drops him to a knee briefly. He stumbles and stands back up, where he slams his fist into Kara-France’s head when a spinning back elbow is flying his way and makes them both fall over! Royval appears to get away with an illegal knee when Kara-France is on the ground, and Royval crashes down into the guard. Both men scramble wildly and Kara-France tries to sweep him with an omoplata, but the American stays savvy and defends himself. The two men get back to their feet, and Royval cracks him with a spinning back fist, a knee and several other strikes to send Kara-France flying. The City Kickboxing fighter lands a few shots in response, but Royval lands the heavier strikes and sets Kara-France down again. Royval tries to set up a guillotine choke, and when he gets out, Kara-France attempts his own. This fight is absolutely wild! Kara-France sweeps the leg out and allows them both to stand up, where they return to the center of the cage and let loose a flurry that does some serious damage. Royval hurts Kara-France, and Kara-France cracks him with a right hand but “Raw Dawg” laughs it off and presses forward to the clinch. When they separate, Royval stick out a few jabs and a kick to end the round. That was an unreal round, almost certainly worthy of year-end consideration.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 2
Royval comes out of his corner on the warpath, and as he fires several strikes out, Kara-France is right there to greet him. Royval lifts up a knee and gets countered with a right hand. Kara-France shoots in for a takedown, and Royval defends it not by sprawling but by jumping for a guillotine choke. By the time Kara-France lowers his opponent to the ground, he is already grimacing in pain as the choke is in tight as can be. Only a few more seconds tick by until Kara-France taps out, and this is a massive win for Royval. What a wild fight for as long as it lasted, and the UFC has a new flyweight contender on its hands.
The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Kai Kara-France R2 0:48 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks the underdog Royval, impressed by his ground game and finishing ability. He thinks Royval will get the fight to the mat at some point and have a big advantage there. He also notes Royval's striking is decent and he has a reach advantage.
Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval as a dog, calling it a dog-or-pass situation. He believes Kai Kara-France is overrated, with questionable wins and a tendency to duck his head before exchanges, which Royval can exploit with flying knees. He praises Royval's heart, submission ability, and pressure, though he notes Royval's takedown defense is poor.
The host picks Brandon Royval as a live underdog, comparing him to Tony Ferguson for his unorthodox pressure and scrambling ability. He believes Royval's chaos and jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Kai Kara-France, who he feels is overrated due to his City Kickboxing affiliation. He predicts a second or third-round submission.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France, citing his great grappling defense, improvement, and experience against tough competition. He thinks Kara-France will chop at the legs, work the body, and win a unanimous decision. He notes Royval's win over Tim Elliott was good but Kara-France is a different level.
May 30, 2020
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 40 of 55 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 4:01 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 22 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 2:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 30 of 37 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 1 | 3:08 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 13 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 17 of 32 | 53% | 6 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
| Tim Elliott | 16 of 33 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
| Tim Elliott | 12 of 18 | 66% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 5 of 13 | 38% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Following the trend of going down 10 pounds to the next bout, we have reached the flyweight division, where former title challenger Elliott (15-10-1, 4-8 UFC) takes on longtime LFA vet and UFC newcomer Royval (10-4, 0-0 UFC) on short notice. Royval was previously booked on the Contender Series, but he was yanked to the big leagues to take on a man who dances out to the cage with Kennedy’s “Karate” playing in the background. Referee Mark Smith oversees the action between these two fast starters, and with no glove touch, away we go! Within seconds, a majestically mulleted Elliott hits a takedown. Royval scrambles and gives up his back, and Elliott starts raining down punches and lands a couple to the back of the head in the process. Royval leans to his back, and Elliott tries to set up an armbar but Royval bursts up to his feet. Elliott tries to knee him on the head on the way up, but Royval defends himself, so Elliott presses forward to drag the fight back down. Against the fence, Elliott is thudding a few knees to the legs while Royval tries to break free, and the newcomer pulls for a kimura sweep where he almost gets Elliott down. The former title challenger rolls with it, and gets on top, but Royval muscles his way back up. This does not stay standing for long, as a few kicks from Royval lead to Elliott racing forward to bully Royval against the fence. Elliott drags him down for a moment, but “Raw Dawg” walks up the fence. Elliott throws a few short knees while he has his man tied up, and Royval is forced to play defense until he can get a separation. They clash heads head on the break, and they back off. As Elliott charges forward for a takedown, he lowers his head and gets nailed with a spinning back fist. This does not bother him, as he pushes forward and makes Royval bounce off the wall. Landing a hard body kick, Elliott is practically sprinting at him to get the takedown. After he keeps fighting for the position, Elliott gets him down by standing up and pulling him down with his legs. They scramble for position, and Elliott pulls for an armbar that is unsuccessful. Royval tries to make him pay, and does so with a few powerful strikes after standing again. Elliott goes for one last takedown attempt, and Royval snatches up an armbar but time expires before he can land it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The torrid pace from Elliott might have caught up with him already as he gasps for air between rounds, if veteran flyweights are capable of adrenaline dumps like this. Round 2 begins as Royval keeps his distance, lands a few strikes, and actually puts Elliott on his back. Royval calmly advances position, where he slices to half guard and then side control for a second. Elliott scrambles as Royval jumps for a guillotine choke, and Elliott is able to flip him over. Royval keeps the guillotine position while on his back, and is wide open for a Von Preux choke. Elliott considers maneuvering for that submission, but bails on it to stand up and get the fight where he wants it. Elliott quickly advances and hits his own takedown, where he briefly takes the back but is aiming for a choke. Elliott sets up a guillotine choke, and falls to his back while he is wrenching on the neck, but Royval pops his head out before he is in danger. “Raw Dawg” mounts him, and the frenetic Elliott flips him over and nearly gets on top before giving up his back. The two continue to roll around, and Royval winds up on top.
The newcomer quickly hops over to side control, where he sets up a lightning-quick arm-triangle choke. Elliott, who may be exhausted, taps out, and Royval records a solid win his Octagon debut.
Despite the impressive victory, a seemingly crestfallen Royval is in tears in his post-fight interview and expresses disappointment with his performance, all while lamenting that he has to go back to work tomorrow.
The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Tim Elliott R2 3:18 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Expert Picks (3)
Big Brady picks Tim Elliott to win by decision. He thinks Elliott can take Royval down at will and control him, but he notes that Elliott often puts himself in bad positions and has been submitted before. He acknowledges Royval's BJJ is no joke and that Royval could snatch a submission from his back. He calls it a close fight and advises not to bet on it due to the danger of Elliott getting submitted.
Daniel leans with the underdog Royval, citing his hunger, creativity, and submission threat off his back. He notes that Elliott is experienced but has a poor UFC record and may not care enough. He thinks Royval's momentum and will to win could be decisive.
The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval to win by submission. He notes that Royval is a bigger flyweight with long range, and that Tim Elliott has taken a lot of damage recently and walks into punches. He predicts Royval will rock Elliott and then submit him, as Elliott's grappling won't be enough to keep him down.
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