UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett Next Fight
Age 29
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Maria Oliveira
5.03 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
5.76 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
0.95 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Gloria de Paula
4.89 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.77 SApM
66.0% Str. Def.
0.74 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Maria Oliveira
Moneyline
Caesars +250
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1000
Submission
FanDuel +3000
Decision
FanDuel +350
Gloria de Paula
Moneyline
FanDuel -255
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetRivers +1200
Decision
BetMGM -110
Maria Oliveira - Fight History
LOSS vs Diana Belbiţă
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diana Belbiţă 0 106 of 208 50% 154 of 258 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:04
Maria Oliveira 0 64 of 168 38% 85 of 200 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diana Belbiţă 0 41 of 84 48% 60 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Maria Oliveira 0 28 of 66 42% 36 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:20
2 Diana Belbiţă 0 22 of 37 59% 49 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:29
Maria Oliveira 0 7 of 17 41% 19 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:37
3 Diana Belbiţă 0 43 of 87 49% 45 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Maria Oliveira 0 29 of 85 34% 30 of 86 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diana Belbiţă 106 of 208 50% 71 of 165 20 of 25 15 of 18 76 of 176 22 of 24 8 of 8
Maria Oliveira 64 of 168 38% 45 of 142 11 of 18 8 of 8 62 of 166 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diana Belbiţă 41 of 84 48% 30 of 68 4 of 7 7 of 9 33 of 76 4 of 4 4 of 4
Maria Oliveira 28 of 66 42% 19 of 55 6 of 8 3 of 3 28 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Diana Belbiţă 22 of 37 59% 9 of 24 11 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 20 12 of 13 4 of 4
Maria Oliveira 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Diana Belbiţă 43 of 87 49% 32 of 73 5 of 7 6 of 7 37 of 80 6 of 7 0 of 0
Maria Oliveira 29 of 85 34% 21 of 72 4 of 9 4 of 4 28 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Maria Oliveira

Angelo picks Maria Oliveira as an underdog. He notes that Diana Belbiţă has been out for over a year due to injuries, while Maria has fought three times in that span. He believes Maria's durability and forward pressure will be key, and that Diana may struggle with takedowns or slow down. He sees Maria winning a close fight.

"I like Maria Oliveira to get this done right off the rip"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Big Brady picks Diana Belbiţă because she can exploit Maria Oliveira's poor takedown defense with her judo and throws. Oliveira is the better technical striker, but Belbiţă throws high volume and can mix in takedowns to win close rounds. He also notes the Canadian factor may help in a close decision. He is not confident and has little interest in the fight.

"I think where she does win this fight is going to be just mixing of the takedowns getting the fight down to the mat... give me balbita for the win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Cody picks Diana Belbiţă, noting that Oliveira is willing to stand and trade, which plays into Belbiţă's hands. He believes Belbiţă has improved her cardio and counter-wrestling under Kruelion. He thinks Oliveira's lack of wrestling will allow Belbiţă to keep the fight standing and win a striking battle. He expects a decision win for Belbiţă.

Over 2.5 rounds (parlayed with under in Nelson vs Bilder)
"I think belvita wins it so maybe a Strike King Tit for Tat type battle"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Maria Oliveira

Connor also picks Maria Oliveira, agreeing that Belbiţă lacks core strength and can be pushed around. He notes that Oliveira's losses are to very good athletes like Vanessa Demopoulos, Tabitha Ricci, and Kana Asakura, while Belbiţă is not at that level. Connor thinks the odds could be more skewed toward Oliveira, as Belbiţă has struggled against anyone who takes her out of her game.

Oliveira opened -122, now -100; Belbiţă opened -122, now -110
"Yeah, I I think the odds could stand to be a little more skewed towards all of air here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Daniel Levi picks Diana Belbiţă, citing her higher volume and better cardio compared to Maria Oliveira, who he considers one of the worst fighters in the UFC. He notes that Oliveira pushes her punches and has poor fundamentals, while Belbiţă puts out a ton of volume and has shown grit. He believes Belbiţă will outwork Oliveira and win a decision, especially with the Canadian crowd behind her.

"I got Deanna belvita to alvolume Marina Oliveira and win a decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Diana Belbiţă

James picks Diana Belbiţă to win by decision. He notes that Belbiţă has better striking fundamentals with her hands up and sharp punches, while Maria Oliveira is wild with her chin up. He believes Belbiţă can also take Oliveira down if she wants, as Oliveira has a terrible ground game. He predicts the fight goes to decision but suggests betting on the fight ending inside distance at plus money due to the volatility of low-level women's MMA.

Fight ends inside distance at +200; KO at +900 to +1000
"I am predicting Diana balbita to win via decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Belbiţă has an aggressive striking style with good body work and forward pressure. She's been improving her defensive grappling and should land more effective strikes than Oliveira, who was dropped multiple times in her last fight. The home crowd advantage in Vancouver may help her in a close decision. However, this is a low-confidence lean given both women are similar strikers.

"I'm gonna have to lean with the Canadian or Romanian Canadian here in Diana balbita I feel like her aggressive striking style will be able to land more effective strikes on Oliveira"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Maria Oliveira

Paul leans toward Maria Oliveira, citing her slight grappling advantage and reach. He notes that Belbiţă's big win over Hannah Goldie came with a significant reach advantage, and Oliveira is similarly sized. He thinks Oliveira's takedowns and submission threat could be the difference. He acknowledges it's a close fight and expects a decision.

Over 2.5 rounds (parlayed with under in Nelson vs Bilder)
"I'm gonna lean ever so slightly to the Brazilians so watch me have another Shoei next week because of a home cooking Canadian decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Maria Oliveira

The MMA Guru leans towards Maria Oliveira because she is faster and more talented on the feet, with a range advantage despite being shorter. He notes that Diana Belbiţă has poor grappling, having been submitted when attempting a takedown and out-grappled by Molly McCann. He expects a stand-up fight and predicts a close decision win for Oliveira.

"I am leaning towards Maria Oliveira because both of these women aren't all that good whatsoever"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Maria Oliveira

Zane picks Maria Oliveira, citing Belbiţă's lack of core strength, which makes her easy to push around. He notes that Oliveira is a more comfortable, athletic striker who is faster and more confident. Belbiţă's striking has improved, but she lacks the athleticism to impose her will. Zane thinks Oliveira's losses have come against strong grapplers or athletes, and Belbiţă does not fit that mold, so Oliveira should win.

Oliveira opened -122, now -100; Belbiţă opened -122, now -110
"So i'm going to take all of her."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vanessa Demopoulos 1 55 of 80 68% 121 of 154 2 of 4 50% 0 0 7:59
Maria Oliveira 0 83 of 154 53% 95 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 14 of 23 60% 31 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:39
Maria Oliveira 0 24 of 46 52% 28 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 1 27 of 36 75% 58 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:40
Maria Oliveira 0 24 of 43 55% 28 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 14 of 21 66% 32 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:40
Maria Oliveira 0 35 of 65 53% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vanessa Demopoulos 55 of 80 68% 44 of 68 5 of 5 6 of 7 18 of 39 3 of 3 34 of 38
Maria Oliveira 83 of 154 53% 55 of 124 20 of 21 8 of 9 80 of 151 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 14 of 23 60% 7 of 15 2 of 2 5 of 6 7 of 14 0 of 0 7 of 9
Maria Oliveira 24 of 46 52% 15 of 37 4 of 4 5 of 5 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 27 of 36 75% 23 of 32 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 14 3 of 3 17 of 19
Maria Oliveira 24 of 43 55% 15 of 32 7 of 8 2 of 3 22 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 10 of 10
Maria Oliveira 35 of 65 53% 25 of 55 9 of 9 1 of 1 34 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maria Oliveira 0 96 of 297 32% 99 of 303 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:35
Gloria de Paula 0 105 of 190 55% 116 of 205 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maria Oliveira 0 37 of 111 33% 38 of 113 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Gloria de Paula 0 29 of 60 48% 30 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Maria Oliveira 0 25 of 98 25% 25 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gloria de Paula 0 41 of 72 56% 45 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
3 Maria Oliveira 0 34 of 88 38% 36 of 92 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:13
Gloria de Paula 0 35 of 58 60% 41 of 68 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maria Oliveira 96 of 297 32% 66 of 247 12 of 23 18 of 27 94 of 294 2 of 3 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 105 of 190 55% 75 of 155 11 of 15 19 of 20 98 of 182 7 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maria Oliveira 37 of 111 33% 24 of 89 7 of 11 6 of 11 36 of 109 1 of 2 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 29 of 60 48% 20 of 49 3 of 4 6 of 7 22 of 53 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Maria Oliveira 25 of 98 25% 17 of 83 2 of 5 6 of 10 25 of 98 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 41 of 72 56% 29 of 58 3 of 5 9 of 9 41 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Maria Oliveira 34 of 88 38% 25 of 75 3 of 7 6 of 6 33 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 35 of 58 60% 26 of 48 5 of 6 4 of 4 35 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Angelo picks Gloria de Paula, noting her stick-and-move striking style and improved wrestling (5 takedowns in her last fight). He acknowledges Maria Oliveira's power but believes de Paula's volume and new grappling dimension will secure the win.

"i think de paula gets this done with her touch and go striking and potentially the occasional round clinching takedown so gloria de paula is the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Big Brady picks Gloria de Paula to win by decision, but is not overly confident. He likes de Paula's striking and believes she has more ways to win, including takedowns against Oliveira's poor takedown defense. He notes Oliveira has a massive hole in her ground game and quit in a previous fight, but de Paula's competition has been better.

decision
"I like depaula i think she has more ways to win um it's you can't be overly confident in this but i think apollo does win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Cody picks de Paula, citing her better technique and grappling advantage. He thinks she can outpoint Oliveira in a striking battle and mix in takedowns. He expects a decision but is cautious due to women's MMA volatility.

Gloria de Paula by decision
"i think gloria depaul should be this big of a favorite no do i think the fight likely goes to decision yeah"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Daniel Levi leans Gloria de Paula, thinking she is better than her record indicates and has nice striking variety. He is not comfortable laying -275, but believes she should win a unanimous decision. He notes Maria Oliveira has shown questionable heart in the past, tapping to strikes, but also has some durability. Levi sees de Paula as the more skilled fighter but the price is too high for a confident bet.

de Paula -275 is too high; expects unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go glory to paula of a unanimous decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Maria Oliveira

Paul picks Oliveira as a dog, noting the wide line and women's MMA unpredictability. He thinks if one of the two underdogs hits, it could be Oliveira. He acknowledges de Paula is likely better but sees value in the dog.

"for the purposes of this show i'm picking natalya silva and maria oliveira"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Maria Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Maria Oliveira as his underdog of the card. He notes she is younger, bigger, and has a longer reach than Gloria de Paula, who has not impressed him. He points to de Paula's mediocre record and losses, while Oliveira has faced better competition. He predicts Oliveira wins by decision, questioning why de Paula is a heavy favorite.

underdog pick
"i'm going with maria oliveira here she's quite a sizable underdog this is my underdog of the card"
LOSS vs Tabatha Ricci
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 62 of 135 45% 103 of 187 5 of 11 45% 0 0 6:38
Maria Oliveira 0 66 of 178 37% 90 of 207 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 21 of 52 40% 29 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:22
Maria Oliveira 0 28 of 81 34% 34 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 29 of 48 60% 44 of 64 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:20
Maria Oliveira 0 19 of 48 39% 25 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Tabatha Ricci 0 12 of 35 34% 30 of 62 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:56
Maria Oliveira 0 19 of 49 38% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 62 of 135 45% 42 of 109 12 of 16 8 of 10 29 of 98 5 of 5 28 of 32
Maria Oliveira 66 of 178 37% 34 of 128 18 of 33 14 of 17 61 of 172 4 of 4 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 21 of 52 40% 11 of 39 8 of 9 2 of 4 14 of 44 5 of 5 2 of 3
Maria Oliveira 28 of 81 34% 14 of 57 8 of 17 6 of 7 26 of 78 2 of 2 0 of 1
2 Tabatha Ricci 29 of 48 60% 21 of 37 2 of 5 6 of 6 12 of 31 0 of 0 17 of 17
Maria Oliveira 19 of 48 39% 8 of 31 8 of 12 3 of 5 17 of 46 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Tabatha Ricci 12 of 35 34% 10 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 23 0 of 0 9 of 12
Maria Oliveira 19 of 49 38% 12 of 40 2 of 4 5 of 5 18 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo sees this as a striker vs grappler matchup and always sides with the grappler. He notes Ricci is a very good grappler who is heavy on top and looks for submissions without sacrificing position. Oliveira is a tall striker who doesn't use her range and has nothing on her back. He thinks Ricci can get the fight to the ground easily and may even get a stoppage. He will spend 8900 on her in DraftKings.

considering a stoppage prop (under on rounds or by stoppage); will spend 8900 on Ricci in DraftKings
"i definitely think tabitha wins i think she can win by stoppage"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady is confident in Ricci, calling her a good grappler with a black belt in BJJ, while Oliveira has poor takedown defense and ground game. He believes the UFC is giving Ricci a favorable matchup after a short-notice loss. He predicts a second-round submission despite Oliveira's size advantage.

second round submission
"i think everything's lining up for a tab with the reachy sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Tabatha Ricci, but hesitantly. He notes that Ricci has a judo black belt and should be able to take Oliveira down, as Oliveira has poor takedown defense. Cody points out that Oliveira has quit in a previous fight and has not fought good competition recently. However, he worries that if Ricci cannot get the takedown, she will struggle on the feet due to her short reach. Cody believes this is a good matchup for Ricci but the price is high.

"richie does need the takedown 100 but this seems like the type of matchup where she's taking on a former adam weight she should be able to lean on her"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Lock picks Ricci based on massive grappling advantage. He notes Oliveira is not UFC level and has poor ground game. Ricci should take her down and submit her. He likes Ricci inside the distance and by submission.

Ricci inside the distance +155, Ricci by submission +350
"i like richie here i do think she'll be able to get the takedowns and then be able to lock up the submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul is out on this fight, citing concerns about Ricci's wrestling and the steep price. He notes that Oliveira has a significant reach advantage and that Ricci's training partners have not looked great. Paul believes that if the fight stays standing, Oliveira could win. He does not make a pick.

"i'm out on top of the reach i don't know if this is the spot to fader this seems like a nice little cupcake matchup for her to get on the winning track but until i see something from the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Maria Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Maria Oliveira as a big underdog, arguing that the public is favoring Tabatha Ricci due to her looks rather than skill. He highlights Oliveira's height, reach, and youth, as well as her training at Parana Vale Tudo with top female fighters. He questions Ricci's best win and believes Oliveira's experience and physical advantages will lead to a win.

"i'm picking maria oliveira i know she's a big underdog here and i also know that no one on topology is really picking her"
Gloria de Paula - Fight History
LOSS vs Maria Oliveira
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maria Oliveira 0 96 of 297 32% 99 of 303 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:35
Gloria de Paula 0 105 of 190 55% 116 of 205 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maria Oliveira 0 37 of 111 33% 38 of 113 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Gloria de Paula 0 29 of 60 48% 30 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Maria Oliveira 0 25 of 98 25% 25 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gloria de Paula 0 41 of 72 56% 45 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
3 Maria Oliveira 0 34 of 88 38% 36 of 92 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:13
Gloria de Paula 0 35 of 58 60% 41 of 68 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maria Oliveira 96 of 297 32% 66 of 247 12 of 23 18 of 27 94 of 294 2 of 3 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 105 of 190 55% 75 of 155 11 of 15 19 of 20 98 of 182 7 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maria Oliveira 37 of 111 33% 24 of 89 7 of 11 6 of 11 36 of 109 1 of 2 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 29 of 60 48% 20 of 49 3 of 4 6 of 7 22 of 53 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Maria Oliveira 25 of 98 25% 17 of 83 2 of 5 6 of 10 25 of 98 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 41 of 72 56% 29 of 58 3 of 5 9 of 9 41 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Maria Oliveira 34 of 88 38% 25 of 75 3 of 7 6 of 6 33 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 35 of 58 60% 26 of 48 5 of 6 4 of 4 35 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Angelo picks Gloria de Paula, noting her stick-and-move striking style and improved wrestling (5 takedowns in her last fight). He acknowledges Maria Oliveira's power but believes de Paula's volume and new grappling dimension will secure the win.

"i think de paula gets this done with her touch and go striking and potentially the occasional round clinching takedown so gloria de paula is the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Big Brady picks Gloria de Paula to win by decision, but is not overly confident. He likes de Paula's striking and believes she has more ways to win, including takedowns against Oliveira's poor takedown defense. He notes Oliveira has a massive hole in her ground game and quit in a previous fight, but de Paula's competition has been better.

decision
"I like depaula i think she has more ways to win um it's you can't be overly confident in this but i think apollo does win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Cody picks de Paula, citing her better technique and grappling advantage. He thinks she can outpoint Oliveira in a striking battle and mix in takedowns. He expects a decision but is cautious due to women's MMA volatility.

Gloria de Paula by decision
"i think gloria depaul should be this big of a favorite no do i think the fight likely goes to decision yeah"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Daniel Levi leans Gloria de Paula, thinking she is better than her record indicates and has nice striking variety. He is not comfortable laying -275, but believes she should win a unanimous decision. He notes Maria Oliveira has shown questionable heart in the past, tapping to strikes, but also has some durability. Levi sees de Paula as the more skilled fighter but the price is too high for a confident bet.

de Paula -275 is too high; expects unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go glory to paula of a unanimous decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Maria Oliveira

Paul picks Oliveira as a dog, noting the wide line and women's MMA unpredictability. He thinks if one of the two underdogs hits, it could be Oliveira. He acknowledges de Paula is likely better but sees value in the dog.

"for the purposes of this show i'm picking natalya silva and maria oliveira"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Maria Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Maria Oliveira as his underdog of the card. He notes she is younger, bigger, and has a longer reach than Gloria de Paula, who has not impressed him. He points to de Paula's mediocre record and losses, while Oliveira has faced better competition. He predicts Oliveira wins by decision, questioning why de Paula is a heavy favorite.

underdog pick
"i'm going with maria oliveira here she's quite a sizable underdog this is my underdog of the card"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gloria de Paula 0 87 of 252 34% 124 of 295 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:44
Diana Belbiţă 0 88 of 175 50% 113 of 201 1 of 5 20% 0 0 5:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gloria de Paula 0 28 of 96 29% 35 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Diana Belbiţă 0 27 of 61 44% 32 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:19
2 Gloria de Paula 0 33 of 88 37% 47 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Diana Belbiţă 0 31 of 61 50% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:59
3 Gloria de Paula 0 26 of 68 38% 42 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Diana Belbiţă 0 30 of 53 56% 42 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gloria de Paula 87 of 252 34% 43 of 200 28 of 35 16 of 17 79 of 244 8 of 8 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 88 of 175 50% 70 of 156 17 of 18 1 of 1 71 of 156 17 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gloria de Paula 28 of 96 29% 12 of 76 10 of 14 6 of 6 27 of 95 1 of 1 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 27 of 61 44% 21 of 54 5 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 53 6 of 8 0 of 0
2 Gloria de Paula 33 of 88 37% 16 of 69 12 of 14 5 of 5 29 of 84 4 of 4 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 31 of 61 50% 25 of 55 6 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 55 6 of 6 0 of 0
3 Gloria de Paula 26 of 68 38% 15 of 55 6 of 7 5 of 6 23 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 30 of 53 56% 24 of 47 6 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Angelo picks Diana Belbiţă, citing her pressure, experience, and takedowns as the difference. He acknowledges Gloria de Paula is the better striker, but believes Belbiţă's well-roundedness and forward pressure will win out. He notes if de Paula keeps it standing, she could win.

"i like diane belveda to win diana balbita to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Big Brady hates this fight and refuses to bet on it. He reluctantly picks Diana Belbiţă because she throws more volume and might take de Paula down, but he has no confidence. He notes de Paula has poor fight IQ and doesn't try to get up from takedowns. He predicts Belbiţă wins by decision.

"I hate this fight I'm not going to bet it if I had to make a pick I'm going to go with balbita"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Cody picks Belbiţă, noting her improvements under coach Kru Allen at Iron Tiger. He highlights her better volume and power, and believes she can out-strike de Paula. Cody acknowledges that both fighters have poor wrestling, but thinks Belbiţă's striking is superior and that she should win a stand-up fight.

"i think balbita should have a little bit better power should have a little bit better volume and if she does not take balbita down i think he's just gonna go volume in the way of balbida"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Levi leans toward Belbiţă, citing her confidence from a recent win and de Paula's struggles in the UFC. He notes de Paula looked like a deer in headlights and has been knocked out. Levi believes Belbiţă will be more aggressive and break away in the later rounds, though he acknowledges both have liabilities on the ground.

"i'm leaning towards her way i just think she should be more confident herself"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

De Paula is the cleaner striker with better discipline and leg kicks. She should counter Belbiţă's wild forward pressure. The concern is Belbiţă's volume could sway judges, but de Paula's crisp striking should earn a decision. A KO at +500 is also intriguing but less likely.

de Paula by decision (+200), de Paula by KO (+500)
"my official prediction was the apollo by decision at plus 200 because i could see this go in the full 15 minutes where she just has a cleaner striking performance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

Paul picks Belbiţă, citing de Paula's recent knockout loss and Belbiţă's longer combinations. He expects Belbiţă to be a slight favorite by fight time and likes the value at -110.

"i kind of think bell beat is a good bet here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Diana Belbiţă

The MMA Guru picks Diana Belbiţă to win by decision, citing her experience and reach advantage. He notes that Gloria de Paula has been KO'd early in her career and is inconsistent. While both fighters are low-level, Belbiţă's 14-6 record compared to de Paula's 5-4 gives him confidence in the more experienced fighter.

decision 30-27
"i'm going to go with diana bell beta gloria paula is actually better than her record may suggest she does look decent in certain moments with her technique but just very very inconsistent"
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 1:00 · UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland · Jul 31, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cheyanne Vlismas 1 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
Gloria de Paula 0 5 of 8 62% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cheyanne Vlismas 1 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
Gloria de Paula 0 5 of 8 62% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cheyanne Vlismas 11 of 16 68% 11 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 8
Gloria de Paula 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cheyanne Vlismas 11 of 16 68% 11 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 8
Gloria de Paula 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Big Brady picks the underdog Gloria de Paula, believing the line should be closer. He thinks de Paula is the better striker with a reach advantage and that Vlismas' path to victory is via takedowns, which she doesn't do often. He calls it a coin flip but takes de Paula to win a close split decision.

split decision
"i'm actually going to take the dog into paula i think it should be aligned a lot closer"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cheyanne Vlismas

Cody leans towards Cheyanne Buys based on her superior striking volume and cardio, as seen in her Contender Series performance. He notes that Buys has decent grappling and should be able to take down de Paula, whose takedown defense looked abysmal against Jinh Yu Frey. However, he is not fully confident because Buys' wrestling is unproven and de Paula has good Muay Thai. He suggests that if Buys can mix in takedowns, she should win, but the -170 price is risky.

"i guess my lean would be towards cheyenne bay's based on the we didn't see the best out of her by a long shot in that debut against montserrat ruiz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2021 (fight day)
Gloria de Paula

Levi sees this as a dog or pass situation and leans toward de Paula. He notes that de Paula has diverse Muay Thai striking but struggles to get up from bottom. However, Vlismas is an aggressive brawler who doesn't typically attempt takedowns, so Levi expects the fight to stay on the feet where de Paula has the advantage. He questions whether Vlismas can implement a grappling game plan despite having coach Eric Nicks, given her previous inability to stop a headlock. Levi picks de Paula to bounce back and get her first UFC win.

Dog or pass situation.
"I think this is a dog or pass situation man and I'm gonna go with gloria de paula"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cheyanne Vlismas

Vlismas should use her grappling to nullify de Paula's striking advantage. De Paula has poor takedown defense and struggles off her back. The head-and-arm submission loss to Ruiz was an anomaly; Vlismas is a decent fighter. She should grind out a decision. The line is a buy-low opportunity.

Vlismas by decision +100
"I'm on Cheyanne Vlismas here I think that it's a decent spot for -165 is a great line in my opinion"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Paul considers taking the underdog Gloria de Paula, noting that her Muay Thai looked solid in the second round against Frey. He argues that if de Paula can keep the fight standing, she has a chance to win a striking match. However, he is concerned about her poor takedown defense and one-dimensional game. He ultimately sees this as a 'dog or pass' spot and is not sold on either side.

"why not just spam the underdog one understand the underdog in that de paula probably keeps it standing for two of these three rounds and uses that muay thai"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Cheyanne Vlismas

The MMA Guru picks Cheyanne Vlismas over Gloria de Paula, stating that Vlismas is more scrappy and technically better. He notes that de Paula was figured out easily in her last fight against Jinh Yu Frey, and that Vlismas has more grit and can push a better pace. He expects a scrappy back-and-forth fight, possibly winning Fight of the Night, with Vlismas winning on the feet.

"i'm gonna go with cheyenne bay's i think she can mix it up a little bit better she's a little bit more scrappy"
LOSS vs Jinh Yu Frey
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Mar 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jinh Yu Frey 0 31 of 63 49% 51 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Gloria de Paula 0 24 of 79 30% 50 of 125 2 of 3 66% 2 0 9:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jinh Yu Frey 0 2 of 3 66% 8 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gloria de Paula 0 8 of 13 61% 26 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:44
2 Jinh Yu Frey 0 27 of 55 49% 29 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Gloria de Paula 0 15 of 61 24% 17 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
3 Jinh Yu Frey 0 2 of 5 40% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gloria de Paula 0 1 of 5 20% 7 of 21 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jinh Yu Frey 31 of 63 49% 18 of 48 7 of 9 6 of 6 27 of 59 4 of 4 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 24 of 79 30% 10 of 62 3 of 5 11 of 12 17 of 70 1 of 1 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jinh Yu Frey 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 8 of 13 61% 4 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 4 2 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 8
2 Jinh Yu Frey 27 of 55 49% 16 of 42 5 of 7 6 of 6 24 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 15 of 61 24% 6 of 49 3 of 5 6 of 7 15 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jinh Yu Frey 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gloria de Paula 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Big Brady picks Gloria de Paula, largely fading Jinh Yu Frey due to her extremely low volume and inability to reach 30 significant strikes in her UFC fights. He notes de Paula is the bigger fighter, trains at a good camp (Shoot Box with Mara Romero Borella), and should be able to stuff takedowns. He sees de Paula out-striking Frey and possibly finishing her, though he predicts a decision win.

"I like de Paula quite a bit in this fight and it's more so a fade on Jinh Yu Frey."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Daniel Levi picks Gloria de Paula because she is more aggressive, has cleaner strikes, and better takedown defense than her girlfriend Mayra Bueno Silva. He dismisses Jinh Yu Frey's experience advantage, noting she lost to less experienced opponents. He believes de Paula's willingness to go forward and her heart will overwhelm Frey, who hesitates and has been broken in recent fights.

"I actually think that gloria de paulo is going to come out here and double up jinyu freya on strikes and just win this fight because she is better"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2021 (11 days before fight)
Jinh Yu Frey

Lock leans Frey due to not knowing much about de Paula. He notes Frey is a veteran with solid experience, a former champion in Rizin, and a strong all-around fighter. He acknowledges he needs to research de Paula to understand why she's the favorite. His lean is strictly based on unfamiliarity with de Paula.

"so see early lean is afraid but that's uh fry i should say and that's strictly due to not knowing anything about gloria de paula here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

The Guru is impressed with Gloria de Paula's performance on the Contender Series, noting her technical striking, patience, and increasing volume as the fight progressed. He believes de Paula has great potential and is younger than Frey. He criticizes Frey for being too small for the strawweight division and suggests an atomweight division should exist. He predicts de Paula will win by unanimous decision, 30-27, outstriking Frey and not finishing her because Frey is tough.

"i'm going to go with gloria de puella she looked great on the contender series in her last fight"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Angelo picks Gloria de Paula, noting her stick-and-move striking style and improved wrestling (5 takedowns in her last fight). He acknowledges Maria Oliveira's power but believes de Paula's volume and new grappling dimension will secure the win.

"i think de paula gets this done with her touch and go striking and potentially the occasional round clinching takedown so gloria de paula is the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Big Brady picks Gloria de Paula to win by decision, but is not overly confident. He likes de Paula's striking and believes she has more ways to win, including takedowns against Oliveira's poor takedown defense. He notes Oliveira has a massive hole in her ground game and quit in a previous fight, but de Paula's competition has been better.

decision
"I like depaula i think she has more ways to win um it's you can't be overly confident in this but i think apollo does win this fight and win it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Cody picks de Paula, citing her better technique and grappling advantage. He thinks she can outpoint Oliveira in a striking battle and mix in takedowns. He expects a decision but is cautious due to women's MMA volatility.

Gloria de Paula by decision
"i think gloria depaul should be this big of a favorite no do i think the fight likely goes to decision yeah"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Gloria de Paula

Daniel Levi leans Gloria de Paula, thinking she is better than her record indicates and has nice striking variety. He is not comfortable laying -275, but believes she should win a unanimous decision. He notes Maria Oliveira has shown questionable heart in the past, tapping to strikes, but also has some durability. Levi sees de Paula as the more skilled fighter but the price is too high for a confident bet.

de Paula -275 is too high; expects unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go glory to paula of a unanimous decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Maria Oliveira

Paul picks Oliveira as a dog, noting the wide line and women's MMA unpredictability. He thinks if one of the two underdogs hits, it could be Oliveira. He acknowledges de Paula is likely better but sees value in the dog.

"for the purposes of this show i'm picking natalya silva and maria oliveira"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Maria Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Maria Oliveira as his underdog of the card. He notes she is younger, bigger, and has a longer reach than Gloria de Paula, who has not impressed him. He points to de Paula's mediocre record and losses, while Oliveira has faced better competition. He predicts Oliveira wins by decision, questioning why de Paula is a heavy favorite.

underdog pick
"i'm going with maria oliveira here she's quite a sizable underdog this is my underdog of the card"