UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan but bets on Mateusz Gamrot via buying points. He notes both are mirror images as wrestlers with improving hands, but Tsarukyan has never been out-wrestled except by Islam Makhachev, while Gamrot has struggled with takedown efficiency in some fights. He expects a close decision and buys +5.5 points on Gamrot, believing Gamrot can steal rounds on scorecards.

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be the difference, getting takedowns and controlling Gamrot. He notes Tsarukyan's youth (25 vs 31), improved striking, and success against Islam Makhachev. He questions Gamrot's cardio in a five-round fight (Gamrot admitted doubts about cardio in a three-round fight). He expects a back-and-forth fight but Tsarukyan winning minutes with takedowns and top control. He says the line is wide but Tsarukyan is the pick.

Cody agrees with Paul, but thinks Gamrot is a live dog. He notes Gamrot's slow starts and potential cardio issues in a five-round fight. He believes Tsarukyan's speed and power will be too much, and he also likes Tsarukyan by decision.

Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the total package with elite striking and grappling, and he's only 24. He notes the price is a bit wide but Tsarukyan is a rightful favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by decision, and mentions Tsarukyan decision at +150 as a prop.

The host picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing his consistent cardio and ability to improve as the fight goes on. He notes Gamrot slows down in later rounds, as seen against Diego Ferreira. He expects Tsarukyan to take over in rounds 3-5 and predicts a fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Gamrot's explosiveness but believes Tsarukyan's overall game is superior.

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov confidently, noting his 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills. He expects Rakhmonov to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win, similar to how Michael Chiesa took Magny down four times. He believes Magny's recent performances against Max Griffin and Jeff Neal show vulnerability.

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round knockout. He is very confident, citing Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (8 KO, 7 sub), power in hands and kicks, and underrated submission game. He notes Magny's poor chin (dropped often, finished 6 times) and that he was dropped by Max Griffin. He sees Magny's only path as holding Rakhmonov against the cage, but doubts judges will score that. He expects Rakhmonov to hurt and finish Magny early.

Cody is sold on Rakhmonov as a finisher with excellent submission game and power. He notes Magni hasn't been finished in a while but thinks Rakhmonov's precision and finishing ability will get the job done. He recommends Rakhmonov inside the distance at -135.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Magni's recent performance against Max Griffin was poor and age may be catching up. He thinks Rakhmonov is precise and fights long, and he leans towards inside the distance by knockout.

The host picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that Max Griffin dropped Neil Magny and almost won, and Rakhmonov is much better than Griffin. He believes Rakhmonov will finish Magny in the first round, possibly by submission (d'arce choke). He cites Magny's history of losing to top competition and his inability to outgrapple Rakhmonov.

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his volume and forward pressure. He notes Parisian has shown takedowns in the past and could use them against Baudot, who has solid takedown defense but is at a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Baudot is more dangerous but believes Parisian's output and potential wrestling will get the win.

Big Brady picks Alan Baudot to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He calls it the '1-800 gambler fight of the week' and says nobody should bet on it. He was more impressed with Baudot's performance against Parker Porter (competitive) than Parisian's poor showings (sloppy, gasses early, 42% striking defense). He expects a sloppy, greasy heavyweight decision. He admits both fighters are not great.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Baudot's lack of finishing power and Parisian's high output and durability. He thinks Parisian's pace will wear down Baudot as the fight goes on.

Paul picks the underdog Parisian, citing Baudot's lack of impressive wins and Parisian's durability and volume. He thinks Parisian can win by decision and notes Parisian by decision at +300 as a possible play.

The host picks Alan Baudot, calling Josh Parisian a 'disgraceful human' and noting Baudot is in shape and takes his career seriously. He expects Baudot to be patient on the feet, find takedowns, and pick Parisian apart for a decision win (30-27 or 29-28). He mentions Baudot trains at a good gym with Cyril Gane.

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov but expects Nate Maness to earn respect. He acknowledges Maness is not an easy takedown and has solid submissions and power, but believes Umar's wrestling will ultimately prevail. He thinks Maness is much better than the odds suggest but still sees Umar wrestling his way to a win.

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, citing Umar's elite wrestling, grappling, and striking (question mark kick). He notes Maness's poor grappling defense (almost finished by Johnny Munoz) and that Umar has finished both Morozov and Kelleher via submission. He thinks once Umar gets a takedown, he will take Maness's back and submit him. He says the -1200 odds are not warranted but it's hard to make a case for Maness.

Cody agrees, noting Maness has been lucky in his UFC wins and has faced adversity. He thinks Umar's skills are superior everywhere and he will finish Maness. He also likes Umar inside the distance.

Paul is high on Umar, calling him amazing and a future problem for the division. He thinks Maness is not a real threat and that Umar will finish him. He recommends Umar inside the distance at -150, and also mentions Umar by TKO at +400-+500 as a value prop.

The host picks Umar Nurmagomedov, trusting his skills and noting he makes low-level opponents look easy. He believes Umar will hurt Maness on the feet and then secure a submission in the second round. He criticizes Maness's last win over Tony Gravely as a fluke and doubts his grappling will be enough.

Angelo picks Chris Curtis despite being 0-2 on his previous Curtis picks. He notes Curtis has proven takedown defense against Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes, and has legitimate power. He expects Curtis to get taken down but work back to his feet and land strikes. He has a moneyline bet on Curtis.

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by first-round submission. He is confident that Vieira will take Curtis down early, citing Curtis's poor takedown defense and ground game from outside UFC footage (giving up back, making mistakes). He notes Vieira's elite BJJ and wrestling (5.77 takedowns per 15 minutes). He acknowledges Curtis's path to victory if he survives the first round (KO a tired Vieira), but doubts Curtis can survive. He calls it a finish-heavy fight.

Cody is a big fan of Curtis, praising his takedown defense, durability, and ability to build steam as the fight goes. He thinks Vieira's striking is poor and he tires, so Curtis will finish him in the second or third round. He also likes Curtis by TKO and mentions Curtis round 3 at +1200.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market is moving towards a pick'em but he still likes Curtis. He mentions Curtis round 3 as a possible prop.

The host picks Chris Curtis, noting he has been picking against him but now believes. He cites Curtis's wins over Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes, and his reach advantage. He criticizes Vieira's performance against Dustin Stoltzfus, where he was outlanded and couldn't keep him down. He predicts a second-round KO for Curtis.

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg in a tough striking match. He acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi looked amazing in his last fight before getting caught, but worries that Nchukwi may be gun-shy coming off a KO loss less than three months ago. He believes Ulberg is the more technical striker and if Nchukwi lets Ulberg get into a rhythm, he'll lose a technical kickboxing match.

Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision. He believes Nchukwi is the more complete MMA fighter with paths to victory via takedowns, cage control, and cardio. He notes Ulberg's untested takedown defense and ground game, and that Nchukwi has successfully taken down strong opponents. He favors Ulberg on the feet but thinks Nchukwi will make it an MMA fight and grind out a decision. He says the line should be flipped.

Cody leans towards Nchukwi, citing Ulberg's cardio issues and inexperience. He thinks Nchukwi's physical strength and wrestling could be key, especially in the smaller Apex cage. He also likes Nchukwi by submission at 18-1 as a longshot prop.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ulberg hasn't looked good and Nchukwi has a path via takedowns. He thinks the price is even and Nchukwi is live.

The host picks Tafon Nchukwi as an underdog, believing he will make improvements at 27 while Ulberg is older and less likely to improve. He notes Nchukwi nearly beat Azamat Murzakanov and looked good against Mike Rodriguez. He expects a KO in the second or third round, citing Ulberg's lack of toughness and Nchukwi's power.

Angelo picks T.J. Brown, believing he can win either the grappling or kickboxing exchanges. He notes both fighters have poor takedown defense, so the fight may come down to who shoots first. He worries about Brown's defensive wrestling but expects Brown to initiate and get takedowns, leading to a win.

Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by first-round submission. He believes Brown's grappling is superior and that Nuerdanbieke is one-dimensional (wrestling only) with poor takedown defense (33%) and has been submitted six times. He notes Brown's submission skills (arm triangle) and that he nearly submitted Charles Rosa. He warns that Brown's fight IQ and cardio are questionable, but expects an early submission. He calls it a bad matchup for Nuerdanbieke.

Cody thinks Brown is the better wrestler and grappler, and has a striking advantage. He notes Nuerdanbieke's poor striking and inability to finish takedowns. He expects Brown to win by decision.

Paul agrees, pointing out Nuerdanbieke's low output and poor takedown stats. He thinks Brown's pressure and striking will look better to the judges.

The host picks T.J. Brown, citing his training with Bryce Mitchell as beneficial for grappling. He believes Brown will stuff takedowns as Shayilan slows down, and win the second and third rounds via decision. He notes Shayilan's wins are not impressive and he lost clearly to Joshua Culibao.

Angelo picks Sergey Morozov to win an ugly, fun fight. He highlights Morozov's counter-striking and grappling, noting that Paiva tends to run forward looking for a brawl, which plays into Morozov's counter-striking. He compares Morozov's potential success to Sean O'Malley's, who lit Paiva up with counters. He expects Morozov's grappling to also be a factor.

Big Brady picks Sergey Morozov to win by decision, but with low confidence. He likes Morozov's path to victory via takedowns and control, noting Paiva's poor takedown defense (taken down by multiple opponents). However, he questions Morozov's chin (dropped three times in last fight, KO losses outside UFC) and submission defense. He thinks the fight could get sketchy and says he is staying away from betting it. He expects Morozov to grind out a decision.

Cody likes Morozov's power and boxing, and thinks Paiva's poor head movement and durability issues will lead to a knockout. He also mentions Morozov by KO as a prop.

Paul agrees, noting Paiva's weight cut issues and the damage he's taken. He thinks Morozov will get back on track.

The host picks Sergey Morozov, calling it the toughest fight to predict. He notes Morozov's grappling advantage and believes he will use takedowns to control the fight. He expects a finish in the second round, citing Morozov's experience against good opponents like Umar Nurmagomedov. He is not confident in Paiva's improvements.

Angelo picks Cody Durden, finding the line move bizarre. He expects Durden to come forward with big shots and work his takedowns, noting that if Montel Jackson could take JP Buys down four times, Durden can too. He acknowledges Durden tends to fade but believes his chain wrestling and pressure will be enough. He has a moneyline bet on Durden.

Big Brady picks Cody Durden to win by second-round knockout, but expresses low confidence. He notes that both fighters have poor durability and cardio, but favors Durden's striking power and durability over JP Buys's chin (Buys has been knocked down 7-8 times in UFC). He acknowledges Buys's submission threat early, but believes Durden's better cardio and power will lead to a finish in the second round. He calls it a tough fight to call.

Cody likes Buys, citing his youth, wrestling credentials, and better striking. He notes Durden's poor cardio and that Buys will put a pace on him. He thinks Buys can win by submission or decision.

Paul agrees after Cody's reasoning, and will bet Buys. He notes Durden's pattern of wins and losses but thinks Buys has the edge.

The host picks Cody Durden, citing JP Buys' questionable cardio and tendency to fade after a strong start. He notes Durden's good first-round control against Chris Gutierrez and believes Durden will grind out a decision, winning rounds two and three after losing the first. He acknowledges Buys is dangerous and explosive but trusts Durden's pace.

Angelo picks Brian Kelleher in a tough, close fight. He notes both fighters are similar busy strikers who can grapple, but gives the edge to Kelleher's experience and physicality at 135 pounds. His main worry is Kelleher's negative striking differential, but he believes if Kelleher brings the same grappling he showed against Kevin Crume or Domingo Pilarte, he gets the win. He expects a razor-thin decision.

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by decision. He highlights Bautista's significant size and reach advantages (3-inch height, 5-inch reach), superior striking, and underrated grappling. He notes that Kelleher has been submitted seven times and Bautista has submission skills, but expects the fight to stay standing where Bautista's youth and size will be decisive. He mentions Kelleher's durability (only one KO in 37 fights) but sees Bautista winning a decision.

Cody thinks Bautista is dynamic with good striking and wrestling. He notes Kelleher relies on takedowns and if he can't take Bautista down, he'll be out struck. He expects Bautista to win a decision.

Paul agrees with Cody, adding nothing to dispute.

The host picks Mario Bautista, noting Brian Kelleher looks old and slow at 35. He believes Bautista has good grappling and won't be exposed there, and that Kelleher struggles against step-up competition. He predicts a third-round TKO for Bautista, citing Bautista's training with Sean O'Malley and other top bantamweights.

Angelo picks Jinh Yu Frey, expecting her to slow the pace with bully-style grappling and beat Vanessa Demopoulos similarly to how Lupita Godinez did in the LFA. He acknowledges Vanessa's dangerous ground game and that lesser opponents have submitted Frey before, but believes Frey's physicality and forward pressure will earn her a unanimous decision win.

Big Brady picks Jinh Yu Frey to win by decision. He notes that Frey has a striking advantage and excellent takedown defense (90%), while Demopoulos has no wrestling and poor takedown success. However, he criticizes the -275 price as too high for a low-volume striker like Frey, and warns that Demopoulos's activity could make the fight look close. He ultimately expects Frey to outstrike Demopoulos and keep the fight standing.

Cody picks Frey, citing her better striking and takedown defense. He thinks she will win by decision, noting Demopoulos has never scored a takedown in the UFC. He warns against heavy investment at -260 but thinks Frey by decision is a solid play.

Paul picks Demopoulos by submission at +800, noting her only path to victory is a submission. He thinks the value is too good to pass up, even though Frey is the better striker. He acknowledges it's a longshot but worth a small bet.

The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, citing that Jinh Yu Frey lost to Kay Hansen, which is a bad look. He notes Demopoulos is younger (7-4 record) and moving down to strawweight, while Frey is 37. He expects Demopoulos to win by decision, winning scrambles and controlling the fight.