Kris Moutinho

Angelo picks Cristian Quiñonez because Kris Moutinho is a 'human punching bag' who has absorbed 283 strikes and been knocked out three times in the UFC. He acknowledges Quiñonez is not great either, but at least he has won in the UFC. He warns against betting at -650 odds, calling it not worth it.

Big Brady picks Cristian Quiñonez, calling Kris Moutinho a non-UFC-level fighter with terrible striking defense (29%). He notes Moutinho has been knocked out five times and finished in all losses. Brady believes Quiñonez will hit Moutinho hard and knock him out, predicting a first-round knockout.

Cody also fades Quiñonez at -700, pointing out his inactivity and lack of recent wins. He sees Moutinho as a live dog if he can push the pace and exploit Quiñonez's potential cardio issues.

Connor picks Quiñonez, noting that Moutinho is a sacrificial lamb who has been knocked out in every UFC fight. Quiñonez is not a big step up but is still a step up, and his pressure and size should be too much for Moutinho's limited game.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host considers this a clear dog-or-pass fight. Quiñonez is a heavy favorite at -687, but the host cannot bet him at that price. Moutinho is tough but gets rocked often, lacks knockout power, and is unlikely to outgrapple Quiñonez. The host doubts Moutinho has a realistic path to victory and will not bet this fight.

James believes Quiñonez is far more skilled and powerful than Moutinho, who has a suspect chin after recent KOs. He predicts an early KO for Quiñonez, possibly in round one.

The host picks Quiñonez but is hesitant due to the high price and altitude concerns. He notes Quiñonez's skill advantage but worries about his cardio and past submission losses. He thinks Moutinho's pressure and pace could cause issues if Quiñonez fades. He suggests a flyer on Moutinho by late finish but officially picks Quiñonez by decision.

Paul is leaning towards Moutinho at +500, citing Quiñonez's long layoff, ring rust, and recent losses. He notes Moutinho's pressure and durability, and plans to bet Moutinho despite the risk.

The MMA Guru picks Cristian Quiñonez, calling Kris Moutinho 'garbage' and noting that Moutinho has no wins over good fighters, while Quiñonez has beaten Khalid Taha and Vinicius Oliveira. He predicts an easy TKO finish in the early rounds, citing Moutinho's lack of skill and Quiñonez's superior competition.

Angelo is extremely confident in Wellmaker, calling him a powerful striker with great accuracy and timing. He notes that Moutinho is not durable and has been finished in most losses. He believes Wellmaker will maul Moutinho.

Big Brady picks Malcolm Wellmaker by first-round knockout, calling it a mismatch. He criticizes Kris Moutinho's terrible striking defense (28%) and notes he has been knocked out by lesser competition. He believes Wellmaker hits like a truck and will finish Moutinho early.

Wellmaker is the superior striker and will showcase that, but his defensive mistakes could allow Moutinho to capitalize. Despite picking Wellmaker to win, the minus-300 odds are considered too wide to trust.

Angelo leans toward Kris Moutinho due to his durability, noting that he absorbed 230 strikes against Sean O'Malley and kept coming. He acknowledges that Guido Cannetti is a technical striker but aging, and that Moutinho is young and tough. However, he admits he has no strong read on this fight and that Cannetti could win a decision.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Kris Moutinho, citing Moutinho's youth (13 years younger), height and reach advantage, and better cardio. He acknowledges Cannetti is the better fighter but only has one round of cardio at 42 years old. He expects Moutinho to walk forward, eat punches, and take over late to win a close, greasy decision. He is not betting this fight, especially with Moutinho as a favorite.

Cody leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.

Daniel Levi picks Kris Moutinho, noting that Guido Cannetti is 43 years old and gasses out past the first round. He believes Moutinho's durability and volume will break Cannetti down, likely winning a decision. Levi acknowledges that Moutinho is not the best but thinks this matchup favors him against an aging opponent.

Moutinho is expected to land crisper shots down the middle and win via decision. However, the fight is highly volatile with many possible outcomes. Cannetti has leg kicks and power, but Moutinho's durability is a question. The host is not betting this fight due to volatility.

Paul leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.

Angelo is all-in on O'Malley, calling it a mismatch. He notes O'Malley's power, accuracy, and athleticism, and that Moutinho is a tough wrestler but gets hit and marches forward, which plays into O'Malley's strengths. He has O'Malley in his DraftKings lineup despite the high price.

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by first-round knockout. He notes O'Malley's power and accuracy, and that Moutinho has no striking defense and comes forward with his hands down. He expects an easy walk-off knockout. He mentions that betting on O'Malley inside the distance at -320 is insane but thinks O'Malley should finish early.

Cody picks O'Malley to win by TKO in round 2. He notes Moutinho's short notice and regional level, and O'Malley's striking advantage. He thinks O'Malley will take his time in round 1 and finish in round 2. He likes the round 2 prop at +300.

Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win easily. He believes Moutinho is a short-notice replacement who comes to bang but will likely get knocked out. He notes O'Malley's power and that Moutinho is not a leg kicker, so O'Malley's weakness won't be exploited. He expects a knockout or submission for O'Malley, and dismisses criticism that O'Malley ducked tougher opponents, explaining that few could make weight on short notice.

Jacob also picks O'Malley, stating he would have picked him regardless of opponent. He thinks O'Malley is extremely talented and will dominate. He notes that even at 9500, O'Malley is a deal. He expects an early stoppage and advises going less less on the strike line.

O'Malley is going to destroy Moutinho. Moutinho doesn't belong in the UFC; he's a short-notice replacement with losses to low-level guys. O'Malley is much taller and more skilled. I expect a quick knockout, probably in the first round. I like O'Malley by first-round KO at plus money. He'll get a performance bonus and then sit out again.

Paul picks O'Malley, expecting a TKO. He notes Moutinho's regional level and O'Malley's highlight-reel finishes. He thinks O'Malley will win, possibly in round 2. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds as a decent play.