UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3

Angelo flips his pick from the last fight, now favoring Conor. He notes that in the first fight, Conor landed everything with power and had Dustin in trouble multiple times, but didn't capitalize due to pacing. He believes Conor will have a plan for the leg kicks this time and will get the job done. He also placed a bet on Conor by KO/TKO for plus odds.

Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Conor has the X-factor power, being the hardest hitter pound-for-pound, and that Poirier absorbs a lot of strikes (4.17 per minute). He expects Conor to make adjustments, stuff takedowns, check leg kicks, and keep the fight at range. He acknowledges Poirier's durability but believes Conor will land a knockout.

Cody picks Poirier based on Conor's fading cardio after the first round, Poirier's durability and leg kicks, and the American Top Team camp. He notes Conor's power early but expects Poirier to take over late. He hasn't bet yet, waiting to see how the press conferences affect Poirier's mindset.

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the trilogy. He emphasizes Poirier's superior cardio, output, and durability, noting that Poirier has the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history and has shown he can overcome adversity. He points out that since 2016, Poirier is 7-1 while McGregor is 1-3, and that McGregor struggles in deep waters and has diminishing durability. He predicts a submission win for Poirier, citing the check right hook, calf kicks, takedowns, and clinch work as key factors.

Jacob initially favored Dustin but switched to Conor after rewatching the first fight. He notes Conor landed everything in round one but paced himself too much. He thinks Conor will blitz early to avoid calf kicks and finish in the first round. He also mentions a possible staph infection on Conor's elbow, which could affect cardio and push Conor to an early finish.

I'm going with Poirier here, but I have no real confidence. I think Poirier's durability and cardio have improved at 155, and he can eat McGregor's shots now. McGregor might have a new game plan, but I expect Poirier to take over in the later rounds and finish him, probably in the third or fourth round. I'm not betting this fight myself, but I like Poirier inside the distance and the fight not going to decision.

Paul picks Poirier, citing Conor's durability issues and long layoffs. He notes Conor's power early but believes Poirier's durability and cardio will prevail. He mentions the distraction of Conor's trash talk and the Colby Covington sparring video, but still favors Poirier.

The Guru predicts Poirier will win by TKO in the third round. He expects McGregor to start strong, winning the first two rounds with good striking and body work, but Poirier's calf kicks and clinch work will wear McGregor down. By the third round, McGregor will fatigue, and Poirier will land a big elbow and follow-up shots to finish him against the cage. The Guru notes McGregor will have a more impressive performance than their first fight but the outcome will be the same.

Angelo picks Wonderboy, citing his in-and-out karate style and excellent distance management. He thinks Burns will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. He notes Thompson's recent performances have been phenomenal, especially against Geoff Neal. He plans to bet Thompson by stoppage or decision no action, expecting a decision but hedging.

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson to win by knockout, specifically a third-round knockout. He highlights Thompson's striking advantage, range management, and takedown defense (78%). He notes that Burns will struggle to close the distance and take Thompson down, and that failing to get takedowns will gas Burns. He compares it to Burns' fight with Dan Hooker, where Hooker picked Burns apart. He also mentions Thompson's durability, having only been knocked out once by a fluke.

Cody picks Thompson, citing his superior striking, range, cardio, and speed. He notes Burns' power and puncher's chance but questions his durability and cardio. He mentions Thompson's takedown defense and the big cage favoring him. He thinks Thompson wins by decision, possibly hurting Burns.

Daniel Levi picks Stephen Thompson (Wonderboy) to win. He believes Thompson will control the minutes with his striking, using sidekicks, jabs, and picking Burns apart. He notes that Burns has poor striking defense and gets hit too much, which is dangerous against a precise striker like Thompson. He acknowledges Burns' one-punch knockout power and elite jiu-jitsu, but thinks Thompson's takedown defense and toughness will hold up. He also questions Burns' mindset coming off a title loss.

Jacob agrees with Angelo, stating there are different levels even among top-five fighters. He believes Thompson's length and movement will give Burns fits, similar to how Usman's jab troubled Burns. He doesn't see Burns getting close enough to grapple and expects Thompson to win a decision.

I'm on Wonderboy Thompson here. I think Burns' wins at 170 are over the hill fighters like Woodley, Maia, and Gunnar Nelson. Thompson's movement, blitz attacks, and ability to fight from both stances will give Burns fits. Burns will struggle to take Thompson down and will slow down from whiffing. I expect Thompson to knock him out, probably in the third round. I like Thompson by KO and round 3 props.

Paul picks Thompson, agreeing with Cody. He emphasizes Thompson's movement, the big cage, and his ability to frustrate pressure fighters. He notes Burns' cardio issues and the fact that Thompson has faced better wrestlers. He thinks Thompson wins by decision.

The Guru picks Thompson by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Burns to come out aggressive in the first round, landing leg kicks and some big shots, possibly wobbling Thompson, but Thompson will invest in sidekicks to the body and leg. In the second round, Burns will become more patient and run into Thompson's point-fighting striking game, with Thompson defending takedowns and circling out. By the third round, Burns will be a shell of himself, and Thompson will pick him apart from the outside. The Guru believes Burns will blow his wad early and fail to get the finish, leading to a decision loss.

Angelo is very confident in Tuivasa, calling it a mismatch. He highlights Tuivasa's technical striking, heavy hands, Samoan chin, and takedown defense. He notes Hardy has no ground game and is clueless on the mat. He has a moneyline bet on Tuivasa and has him in his DraftKings lineup.

Big Brady picks Greg Hardy to win by decision. He notes Hardy's volume (4.83 strikes per minute) and positive strike differential, and believes the bigger cage favors Hardy's range management. He expects Hardy to stay on the outside and outland Tuivasa. He acknowledges Hardy's cardio concerns but thinks Tuivasa won't attempt takedowns, so Hardy won't gas. He also notes Tuivasa's chin but thinks Hardy can avoid getting clipped.

Cody picks Tuivasa but is hesitant. He notes Hardy's cardio issues and asthma, and Tuivasa's durability and leg kicks. He expects Hardy to win the first round but fade, allowing Tuivasa to come back. He suggests betting Tuivasa live after the first round.

Daniel Levi picks Tai Tuivasa to win. He highlights Tuivasa's better technique, volume, and experience against higher-level competition, including former champions. He notes that Greg Hardy has cardio issues and tends to fade in later rounds, as seen in the Marcin Tybura fight. He believes Tuivasa's leg kicks and will to dig deeper will be decisive, and that Hardy is unlikely to take the fight to the ground. He expects Tuivasa to win a decision or possibly get a finish in the later rounds.

Jacob picks Hardy as a value play, expecting a first-round finish either way. He thinks Hardy's wild, powerful striking from odd angles could catch Tuivasa early. He admits it's a coin flip but likes Hardy at 7800 in DraftKings. He acknowledges this is his last time backing Hardy after being burned before.

I'm taking Tuivasa here. Hardy has cardio issues and will struggle to get his stick-and-move game off. Tuivasa will pressure him, land combinations, and push him against the cage. Hardy gassed against Tybura, and I think Tuivasa will knock him out in the second or third round. I like Tuivasa by KO round 2 or 3.

Paul picks Tuivasa but is hesitant. He notes Hardy's athleticism and improvements but questions his cardio. He thinks Tuivasa's durability and ability to keep coming will be key. He expects Hardy to win the first round but fade, and Tuivasa to take over.

The Guru predicts Tuivasa will win by first-round KO. He expects Tuivasa to use calf kicks to destroy Hardy's lead leg, a rare weapon in the heavyweight division. After Hardy throws some early bombs, Tuivasa will chop at the calf repeatedly, causing Hardy to stumble and move backwards. Tuivasa will then clinch against the cage, land body shots and elbows, and break with a big right hand that drops Hardy. The Guru sees a finish similar to Tuivasa's previous win over Jorgen de Castro.

Angelo picks Kunitskaya as an underdog, citing her well-roundedness. He notes Aldana is a pure boxer with power but only one way to win, while Kunitskaya has striking diversity, wrestling, and better cardio. He has a moneyline bet on Kunitskaya and is confident in her winning.

Big Brady picks Yana Kunitskaya to win by decision. He notes that Yana is more well-rounded, has a better resume, and can mix in takedowns. He points out that Aldana's takedown defense (84%) may be inflated due to weak competition. He is concerned about Yana being finished in four of her five losses, but thinks if Yana takes it to the scorecards, she can win. He calls it a close fight, a coin flip.

Cody leans toward Kunitskaya as a slight underdog. He notes her clinch strength, durability, and improvement at American Top Team. He thinks she can neutralize Aldana's striking with grappling and cage control. He acknowledges Aldana's striking advantage but believes Kunitskaya's grappling will be the difference.

Daniel Levi picks Yana Kunitskaya as the underdog. He argues that Irene Aldana gets hit too much, absorbing over 100 strikes in multiple fights, and that she doesn't shoot takedowns, so the fight will stay standing. He believes Kunitskaya has good striking and can take advantage of Aldana's poor defense. He calls it a pick-em fight and likes getting plus money on Kunitskaya.

Jacob picks Aldana using MMA math, noting that both Aldana and Kunitskaya beat Ketlen Vieira, but Aldana did it by KO while Kunitskaya won a decision. He acknowledges Angelo's criticism of MMA math but sticks with his pick. He seems less confident and admits it's a random pick.

I'm going with Kunitskaya by decision. This is a striker vs grappler matchup, and I trust Kunitskaya to land takedowns and control Aldana. Aldana gave up five takedowns to Holly Holm, and Kunitskaya is a better wrestler. I expect Kunitskaya to grind out a decision, similar to her fight against Lina Lansberg. No real conviction, but I like the grappler here.

Paul has no clear pick. He discusses the grappling vs striking dynamic but finds it too risky. He notes the big cage favors Aldana but Kunitskaya's grappling could be effective. He calls it a pass.

The Guru picks Aldana by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Aldana's size and weight advantage will prevent Kunitskaya from taking her down, and her standup is far more educated. He expects Kunitskaya to wade forward looking for a clinch, while Aldana lands jabs, straight rights, and volume all fight long. The Guru thinks Kunitskaya will not look like she belongs in there, and Aldana will have a field day defending takedowns and landing punches.

Angelo is all-in on O'Malley, calling it a mismatch. He notes O'Malley's power, accuracy, and athleticism, and that Moutinho is a tough wrestler but gets hit and marches forward, which plays into O'Malley's strengths. He has O'Malley in his DraftKings lineup despite the high price.

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by first-round knockout. He notes O'Malley's power and accuracy, and that Moutinho has no striking defense and comes forward with his hands down. He expects an easy walk-off knockout. He mentions that betting on O'Malley inside the distance at -320 is insane but thinks O'Malley should finish early.

Cody picks O'Malley to win by TKO in round 2. He notes Moutinho's short notice and regional level, and O'Malley's striking advantage. He thinks O'Malley will take his time in round 1 and finish in round 2. He likes the round 2 prop at +300.

Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win easily. He believes Moutinho is a short-notice replacement who comes to bang but will likely get knocked out. He notes O'Malley's power and that Moutinho is not a leg kicker, so O'Malley's weakness won't be exploited. He expects a knockout or submission for O'Malley, and dismisses criticism that O'Malley ducked tougher opponents, explaining that few could make weight on short notice.

Jacob also picks O'Malley, stating he would have picked him regardless of opponent. He thinks O'Malley is extremely talented and will dominate. He notes that even at 9500, O'Malley is a deal. He expects an early stoppage and advises going less less on the strike line.

O'Malley is going to destroy Moutinho. Moutinho doesn't belong in the UFC; he's a short-notice replacement with losses to low-level guys. O'Malley is much taller and more skilled. I expect a quick knockout, probably in the first round. I like O'Malley by first-round KO at plus money. He'll get a performance bonus and then sit out again.

Paul picks O'Malley, expecting a TKO. He notes Moutinho's regional level and O'Malley's highlight-reel finishes. He thinks O'Malley will win, possibly in round 2. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds as a decent play.

The Guru predicts O'Malley will win by first-round head kick KO. He expects O'Malley to avoid Moutinho's leg kicks, then chop at Moutinho's lead leg with his own kicks, spinning him around. Moutinho plods forward and sits heavy on his lead leg, making him vulnerable. O'Malley will land a right hand, then disguise a head kick behind it to finish Moutinho. The Guru sees no other way the fight goes.

Angelo picks Griffin despite rooting for Condit. He notes Condit is slowing down at 37, while Griffin is faster and stronger. He thinks Griffin's speed and power will overcome Condit's technical advantages. He has Griffin in his DraftKings lineup.

Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by decision. He emphasizes that Griffin should use his wrestling, as Condit has been taken down in every fight where opponents attempted takedowns. He notes Griffin averages nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy. He thinks the striking will be close but the takedowns will be the difference. He mentions Condit's recent wins over Court McGee and Matt Brown but notes McGee didn't wrestle, which was a mistake.

Cody picks Griffin but prefers the submission prop at 20-1 on DraftKings. He notes Griffin's wrestling advantage and believes his best path is takedowns and submissions. He thinks Griffin can win by submission despite no UFC subs, citing Condit's vulnerability.

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Condit as a slight lean, acknowledging it's an illogical pick. He admits Condit is past his prime and that Griffin probably should win by decision using top control. However, he respects Condit's veteran savvy and believes he can do something sneaky to pull off an upset. He notes that Condit still has fight in him, as seen in the Oliveira fight where he almost got a submission. He is not confident in the pick.

Jacob picks Condit, citing his recent performances and value at 7500. He notes Condit has never been knocked out and has looked great against Matt Brown. He thinks Condit's experience and takedowns will be key. He compares Condit's potential run to Glover Teixeira's late-career surge.

I like Max Griffin here. Condit's takedown defense is terrible (35% defense), and Griffin has good pressure and takedowns. Condit hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC, and Griffin's cardio is good enough to grind out a decision. I expect Griffin to land takedowns and control the fight, winning by decision. The line might seem wide, but I trust Griffin to exploit Condit's weakness.

Paul picks Griffin by decision at +135. He notes Griffin's wrestling and volume striking, and Condit's durability. He thinks Griffin will use takedowns to secure rounds. He doesn't like the moneyline at -190.

The Guru picks Condit by 29-28 unanimous decision in an upset. He expects Griffin to win the first round by landing big shots on Condit's chin, but Condit's chin will hold up. As the fight goes on, Condit will invest in body shots, leg kicks, and takedowns, mixing in grappling and counter hooks. Griffin will become boxing-heavy and head-hunt, while Condit circles out and lands. The Guru sees Condit taking the second and third rounds with a more varied attack.

Angelo picks Price, believing Price's relentless pressure and durability will draw the crazy out of Pereira, causing him to fade. He notes Pereira has questionable fight IQ and gasses when doing theatrics. He has Price in his DraftKings lineup and plans a moneyline bet.

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Pereira has been fighting smarter, not doing cartwheels, and has power. He highlights Price's lack of striking defense (49%) and high absorption rate (5.83 per minute). He thinks Price will run forward with his hands down and get clipped. He acknowledges Price's power and opportunism but favors Pereira's power and the fact that Price is very hittable.

Cody leans toward Price as an underdog. He notes Pereira's inconsistency and tendency to fight wild, and Price's power and durability. He thinks Price can capitalize if Pereira gets excited. He calls it a dog or pass.

Daniel Levi picks Michel Pereira to win. He believes Pereira is now dialed in and focused, with athletic tools and diverse weapons. He thinks Pereira will land more effective shots and control the fight, though he acknowledges Niko Price's opportunistic finishing ability and lionheart. He notes that Price has improved his volume but doubts he can maintain that against Pereira. He expects Pereira to win by KO or decision.

Jacob agrees with Angelo, citing cardio as the key factor. He thinks the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Price. He notes Pereira's jiu-jitsu is a threat but believes Price can weather the storm and win late. He originally had Price in his lineup but swapped due to salary constraints.

I'm taking Pereira by decision. He has shown more discipline recently, using movement and volume. Price has power but is more of a one-and-done striker. Pereira's unorthodox style and cardio should allow him to outwork Price over three rounds. As long as he doesn't get caught, he should win. I like Pereira by decision.

Paul has no clear pick. He discusses both fighters' strengths and weaknesses but finds it too risky. He calls it a dog or pass situation.

The Guru predicts Pereira will win by second-round rear-naked choke. He expects Price to do well in the first round, pressuring and landing shots, but Pereira will move well and counter with front kicks to the body. As Price hunches over from the body kicks, Pereira will land jabs and right hands. In the second round, Price will rush in and Pereira will catch him with a counter right hand, then take his back and sink in the choke. The Guru initially thought TKO but changed to submission.

Angelo picks Topuria, believing the sport has passed Hall by. He notes Topuria has superior wrestling, traditional jiu-jitsu, and striking. He doesn't see Hall catching Topuria in a submission. He agrees with the DraftKings price and odds.

Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision. He notes Topuria is good everywhere, a great striker with power, a solid wrestler, and a black belt in BJJ. He thinks Topuria can close the distance and keep the fight on the feet, avoiding Hall's guard. He acknowledges Hall's tricky style and underrated striking, but believes Topuria's youth, activity, and game plan will prevail. He mentions a possible knockout but leans decision.

Cody picks Topuria, citing his body work, power, and takedown defense. He notes Hall's dangerous jiu-jitsu but thinks Topuria's striking and physicality will be too much. He expects Topuria to win by decision or TKO.

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win. He respects Ryan Hall's unique leglock game and spin kicks, but believes Topuria's confidence, youth, and well-rounded skills will neutralize Hall. He notes that Topuria has knockout power, good grappling, and heart, as shown when he got dropped and came back to win. He worries that Topuria's overconfidence could lead him to engage on the mat, but thinks he has the goods to win. He finds the plus 200 on Hall tempting but sticks with Topuria.

Jacob is extremely confident in Hall, calling it his most confident lock of the week ever. He believes Hall's unorthodox jiu-jitsu and kicks will lead to a submission. He notes Hall's ability to incorporate kicks to set up takedowns and that nobody wants to fight him. He plans to bet on Hall at plus odds.

I'm going with Topuria by KO. He is a young, hot prospect with great grappling and striking. Hall is wild and unorthodox, but Topuria's striking is much better. Topuria can also grapple with Hall if needed. I think Topuria will land a knockout after accumulating damage, probably in the second or third round. I like Topuria inside the distance and by KO.

Paul picks Topuria, noting his well-rounded skills, youth, and improvement. He thinks Topuria's takedown defense and striking will neutralize Hall's jiu-jitsu. He expects Topuria to dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision.

The Guru predicts Topuria will win by first-round KO. He expects Hall to dive for leg locks and use imanari rolls, but Topuria will escape and kick Hall's leg while Hall is on his back. Hall will get back up and throw wheel kicks, but each time Topuria will close the distance and smother him. Topuria will work the body throughout, causing Hall to hunch over. Then Topuria will land a lead left hook to the body followed by a right hand over the top to knock Hall out.

Angelo picks du Plessis, citing his striking advantage and movement to avoid takedowns. He thinks du Plessis will piece up Giles on the feet and potentially get a late stoppage. He notes Giles is a grappler but du Plessis can avoid being pressed against the cage.

Big Brady picks Trevin Giles to win by second-round knockout. He thinks Giles is the better fighter everywhere, with better striking and grappling. He notes Giles' power and finishing ability (79% finish rate). However, he has concerns about Giles' fight IQ, cardio, and output. He acknowledges du Plessis is dangerous with fight-changing power, but believes Giles can keep distance and land. He mentions Giles' losses are both third-round submissions, so he expects an early finish.

Cody leans toward du Plessis. He notes du Plessis' power and submission game, and Giles' history of being submitted by guillotine. He thinks du Plessis can finish inside the distance. He calls it a dog or pass.

Daniel Levi leans toward Trevin Giles. He notes Giles' UFC experience, speed, and lightning-fast jab, and believes Giles will win the minutes. However, he warns that Giles can make mental mistakes and get caught, while du Plessis is extremely durable and has opportunistic finishing ability with submissions and knockout power. He sees value on both sides but slightly favors Giles.

Jacob picks Giles, noting his intelligence and ability to win close rounds. He references Giles' previous lock of the week win over Roman Rodriguez. He thinks Giles can find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds late. He almost made Giles his lock of the week again.

I lean towards Giles by decision. He has a speed and jab advantage, and I expect him to out-strike du Plessis on the feet. Du Plessis is too patient and gives up his back foot. Giles' cardio is a concern, but I think he can win rounds with his striking. I don't have high confidence, but I like Giles to get it done via decision.

Paul leans toward du Plessis. He notes du Plessis' leg kicks and submission threat, and Giles' cardio issues. He thinks du Plessis can win by finish. He calls it a volatile fight.

The Guru predicts du Plessis will win by third-round guillotine choke. He expects du Plessis to chew up Giles' lead leg with kicks in the first round, while Giles is boxing-heavy. Giles will have a better second round, but du Plessis will continue chopping the leg. In the third round, Giles' leg will be damaged, and du Plessis will land good shots. Giles will panic and shoot a takedown, putting his neck in a guillotine, which du Plessis will capitalize on. The Guru notes Giles has been choked out twice before when panicking.

Angelo picks Maia, stating she is better everywhere. He notes Maia has good jiu-jitsu and underrated striking, while Eye is a step behind and struggles when bullied. He expects Maia to close distance, grapple, and win a decision. He suggests a prop bet on unanimous decision for plus odds.

Big Brady picks Jennifer Maia to win by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Maia should take the fight to the ground, but she has only attempted four takedowns in her entire UFC career. He thinks if she gets one takedown, she can ride out the round. He acknowledges the striking is close and that Eye has more volume. He is concerned about the -200 line and says he would never bet that. He picks Maia based on the assumption she fights smart.

Cody picks Maia, noting her improvement and grappling advantage. He thinks Eye has declined and has weight issues. He expects Maia to use takedowns and control to win a decision.

Daniel Levi picks Jennifer Maia. He notes that Maia is in the best spot of her career, coming off a first-round finish of Joanne Calderwood and a win over Roxanne Modafferi, and even won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. He questions whether Maia will be motivated after the title loss. He also notes that Jessica Eye has looked unmotivated in recent losses and is a hot-and-cold fighter. He thinks Maia is stronger but acknowledges Eye is capable of surprising.

Jacob also picks Maia, citing her shoot boxing background and precise hands. He notes Eye is experienced but inconsistent. He is hesitant to put Maia in his lineup due to Eye's potential to surprise, but he leans Maia. He mentions he would wait to see what Dan thinks.

I'm taking Jessica Eye at plus money. The line on Maia is too high due to recency bias from her performance against Valentina. Maia is not a takedown artist; she's a striker. Eye has good volume and pressure, as seen in her wins over Viviane Araujo and Catlin Chookagian. I think this fight should be a pick'em, and Eye has value. I expect a close decision, possibly a split, and I'm on Eye.

Paul picks Maia, noting Eye's recent poor performances and weight miss. He thinks Maia's grappling and pressure will be key. He expects Maia to win by decision.

The Guru picks Maia by 30-27 unanimous decision, but calls the fight excruciatingly boring. He expects Eye to try boxing combinations, while Maia will push her against the cage, similar to how Maia did against Valentina Shevchenko. Maia will stall against the cage with knees, body shots, foot stomps, and occasional takedowns, winning every round in a dull affair.

Angelo picks Akhmedov, citing his relentless wrestling and physical strength. He notes Tavares has good takedown defense but Akhmedov is a legitimate wrestler who will keep pressing. He expects Akhmedov to win a 29-28 decision. He also plans to bet Tavares +3.5 on the scorecards as a hedge.

Big Brady picks Brad Tavares to win by decision. He favors Tavares' striking and cardio, and notes his excellent takedown defense (79%), as seen against Antonio Carlos Jr. He expects Akhmedov to have some success early but slow down, while Tavares stuffs takedowns and takes over in later rounds. He thinks Tavares will win the last two rounds and cruise to a decision.

Cody picks Tavares, citing his takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes Akhmedov's cardio issues and lack of power. He expects Tavares to win by decision or late finish. He also took Tavares round 3 at 12-1.

Daniel Levi leans toward Brad Tavares. He praises Tavares' takedown defense and balance, which could frustrate Akhmedov and cause him to gas. He notes that Akhmedov hits hard and has been competitive in all his middleweight fights, making the underdog tempting. He thinks the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Tavares, who can point-fight with his jab and leg kicks. He calls it a tough call and mentions that some sharp people are on Tavares.

Jacob also picks Akhmedov, noting his wrestling is different from Antonio Carlos Jr.'s. He thinks Akhmedov will pin Tavares against the fence and work takedowns. He is scared to spend 8600 on Tavares and believes the fight favors the grappler as it goes on.

I like Tavares by decision. He has great takedown defense and better cardio. Akhmedov will try to wrestle, but Tavares should be able to get back to his feet and out-strike him. Akhmedov slows down in later rounds, and Tavares will pull away. I trust Tavares to win a decision, though he might get taken down early. The over 2.5 rounds is also a good parlay piece.

Paul picks Tavares, agreeing with Cody. He notes Tavares' takedown defense and striking, and Akhmedov's cardio issues. He expects Tavares to win by decision.

The Guru picks Tavares by 29-27 unanimous decision. He expects Akhmedov to target Tavares' lead leg with kicks early, but Tavares will land jabs and straight left hands. Akhmedov will attempt takedowns but Tavares has excellent takedown defense and will stay on his feet or get up quickly. The failed takedowns will gas Akhmedov, and Tavares will take over in the second and third rounds, with a potential 10-8 third round. The Guru gives Akhmedov the first round.

Angelo picks Zhumagulov, citing his toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Zhumagulov will close the distance, get takedowns, and dominate. He notes Rivera is not UFC-level yet and has lost three in a row. However, he warns against betting at -358 odds and suggests the under on rounds.

Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by decision. He thinks Zhumagulov is the better fighter and can mix in takedowns. He notes Rivera has zero takedowns in the UFC and poor takedown accuracy. However, he is concerned about the height and reach disadvantages for Zhumagulov, and thinks the -358 line is too wide. He expects Zhumagulov to close the distance and get the job done, but not without difficulty.

Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his experience and Rivera's poor UFC run. He thinks Zhumagulov's volume and takedowns will be too much. He expects a decision win but also likes the KO prop at +450.

Daniel Levi picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He acknowledges that Zhumagulov has not been impressive and is a small flyweight, but believes he has beaten better competition on the regional scene. He criticizes Jerome Rivera for being timid and lacking confidence, despite having physical advantages. He thinks Zhumagulov will outpoint Rivera to a unanimous decision. He cannot back Rivera to win any UFC fight.

Jacob picks Rivera as an underdog, citing his length and submission threat. He notes Rivera's losses are to top competition and he believes Rivera can keep distance and find a submission. He thinks the -358 on Zhumagulov is too high and likes the plus money on Rivera.

I'm picking Zhumagulov to win, but I'm not confident. He is a point fighter with low finishing ability, and Rivera is a volume striker who could make it close. Rivera has value as a dog, especially by decision. I think Zhumagulov wins a close decision, but I wouldn't parlay him. The over 2.5 rounds is a better bet.

Paul picks Zhumagulov, noting Rivera's poor record and chin issues. He thinks Zhumagulov's experience and durability will prevail. He expects a decision win.

The Guru picks Zhumagulov by 30-27 unanimous decision. He expects both fighters to trade on the feet in the first half of each round, with Rivera possibly having a range advantage. But Zhumagulov will stay patient, then walk Rivera down and take him down against the cage in the second half of each round, landing ground and pound. The Guru compares the takedown style to Alvarez-Poirier. He sees Zhumagulov winning every round with dominant top control.