Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev

March 12, 2022 UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.
Magomed Ankalaev

Magomed Ankalaev W

21-2-1
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Magomed Ankalaev

Moneyline
BetRivers -625
KO/TKO
BetMGM +125
Submission
BetWay +900
Decision
FanDuel +160

Thiago Santos

Moneyline
FanDuel +520
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
BetMGM +3500
Decision
FanDuel +1200
Fighter Stats

Magomed Ankalaev

Age34
Height6' 3"
Reach75.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Thiago Santos

Age42
Height6' 2"
Reach76.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Magomed Ankalaev

3.65SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
2.59SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.79TD Avg
22.0%TD Acc.
87.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Thiago Santos

3.72SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.57SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.88TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
65.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting that Thiago Santos has slowed down at 38 and is not the same fighter who knocked out Jan Blachowicz. He believes Ankalaev's forward pressure, heavy kicks, and constant takedown threats will be too much. He expects a one-sided win, though not necessarily a stoppage.

"i have ankalive winning i think he does it with forward pressure heavy kicks that manage range and just constant takedown threats"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He notes Santos is 38, looks washed, has low volume (44 strikes in 25 minutes vs Walker), and has never recovered from his knee injuries after the Jones fight. He thinks Ankalaev is well-rounded, has power, and will outpoint Santos easily over five rounds. He expects the fight to be somewhat uneventful but Ankalaev will dominate. He mentions the line has moved from -330 to -500.

"i'm gonna say inca live wins this one actually by decision i'm gonna say he just kind of you know out points santos pretty cleanly easily"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody is confident in Ankalaev, citing his pace, cardio, chin, and improved striking. He notes Santos is 38, has declined since knee surgery, and lacks volume. Cody sees Ankalaev as the best at 205 and expects him to win via pressure and volume, possibly a late stoppage. He mentions a parlay with Murzakanov at -106.

Parlay with Murzakanov at -106
"i think ankle alive is the best guy at 205 pounds"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing Ankalaev's upward trajectory and the emergence of a new era of light heavyweights. He notes that Thiago Santos has had lackluster performances since the Jon Jones fight, with his knees falling apart. Levi expects a chess match early but sees Ankalaev landing a big counter or takedown with ground and pound. He acknowledges Santos's power but believes Ankalaev's counters are sharp and that he will eventually get a title shot.

"i think mago med and cleave is trending upwards i think that he will get a title shot at some point and i think that the new era of light heavyweights are emerging"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev is seen as the uncrowned champ, with a seven-fight win streak and granite chin. He's a technical striker with high striking defense, and his ability to adjust mid-fight is praised. Santos is past his prime at 38, with ACL surgery and tentative performances. Ankalaev is expected to win via decision, possibly a one-sided chess match.

Decision prop for Ankalaev is suggested as a good play; round 4 or 5 decision if available.
"I think he is probably the best light heavyweight on planet Earth right now, and I think it's just a matter of time before he captures that gold."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul echoes Cody's view, emphasizing Santos' decline and Ankalaev's advantages in speed, volume, and wrestling. He notes the price is high but believes Ankalaev is the best in the division. He also mentions a parlay with Murzakanov.

Parlay with Murzakanov
"i think ankle alive is the best guy at 205 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Thiago Santos, citing Santos' hesitancy and lack of ligaments in his leg. He believes Ankalaev will chop at the legs early, mix in takedowns, and expose Santos' poor ground game as Glover Teixeira did. He expects a late second-round ground-and-pound TKO, noting that Ankalaev's patient counter-striking style works well against Santos. He admits Santos is a decent underdog but says the odds won't sway him, as Ankalaev wins this fight seven or eight times out of ten.

ground and pound TKO in round 2
"i'm going to trust magman angliev very patient on the fee doesn't rush his work likes to play the counter game as well which i think works against thiago santos"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Song Yadong

Song Yadong W

22-9-1
KO (punches) R1 2:06
Fight 2 VS Bantamweight Completed

Song Yadong

Moneyline
BetMGM -275
KO/TKO
BetMGM +105
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
FanDuel +420

Marlon Moraes

Moneyline
FanDuel +250
KO/TKO
DraftKings +650
Submission
FanDuel +1200
Decision
BetRivers +550
Fighter Stats

Song Yadong

Age28
Height5' 8"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Marlon Moraes

Age38
Height5' 6"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Song Yadong

4.42SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.94SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.78TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Marlon Moraes

3.37SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.53SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.87TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
46.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo hesitantly picks Song Yadong, primarily due to youth. He notes that Marlon Moraes is a savage striker with heavy leg kicks but has been figured out when pressured. He acknowledges that both fighters have similar recent records against top competition. His heart wants Moraes but his head says Yadong. He plans to find a way to bet on Moraes and may change his mind.

May bet on Marlon Moraes separately
"i need to go with yadong here i will find a way to bet on marlon marias i will be rooting for him and honestly i may change my mind on this pick later"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Big Brady picks Song Yadong to win by second-round knockout. He highlights Moraes' severe cardio issues (only one round of gas) and declining durability (knocked out in his last four losses). He notes Yadong is young (24), improving, and showed a good chin. He expects Yadong to survive the first round and then finish Moraes in the second. He acknowledges Moraes is live in the first round but thinks Yadong's path is clear.

second round knockout
"i'm going to take song to win second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Cody picks Song Yadong but is hesitant due to Moraes' early danger. He notes Song's durability and youth, while Moraes has a compromised chin and gasses. He suggests the inside the distance prop for Song, as Moraes is likely to fade.

Inside the distance prop for Song Yadong
"i think song yodang wins but they're really paying the price of a mission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong to win, highlighting Yadong's developing all-around game, granite chin, and ability to scramble back to his feet. He notes that Marlon Moraes has cardio and durability concerns, having been knocked out in four of his last five. Levi believes that when Yadong lands his shots, Moraes won't react well, leading to a knockout. He also mentions that he took Yadong straight in the spot.

took sonia dong straight in the spot
"give me songy dong to come out here and knock out marlon morish and i also took sonia dong straight in the spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Song Yadong is a durable, high-volume striker with good takedown defense, as shown against Casey Kenney. He trusts his chin and cardio, and is expected to march down Moraes after an early competitive round. Moraes has cardio issues and a questionable chin, and his move to Tiger Muay Thai may not fix his gas tank. Song is predicted to win by KO in round 3.

KO in round 3 predicted.
"I think Song will take that shit on the chin. I think he'll be able to endure it and I think he'll be able to start marching down Marlon the longer that this fight goes."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Paul is confident in Song Yadong, citing his chin, youth, and killer instinct. He notes Moraes' durability issues and tendency to fade. He suggests the inside the distance prop as a better bet than the moneyline.

Inside the distance prop for Song Yadong
"i would say that yadong's in the same position he's the most legitimate chinese fighter on the roster"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The MMA Guru picks Song Yadong over Marlon Moraes, emphasizing that Moraes' chin is shattered after multiple KOs and a brutal beating from Merab Dvalishvili. He trusts Yadong's chin more and believes Yadong will commit with effective technique while Moraes will be hesitant. He predicts a brutal first-round KO, similar to Yadong's finish of Alejandro Perez, and sees this as a coming-out party for Yadong. He notes Yadong's youth and experience, stating he is not a green prospect.

first round KO
"i'm going to go with song yodong over malamari's first round ko brutal fashion end of marisa's career start of song yudong's insurgents towards the top of the bantamweight division"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Sodiq Yusuff

Sodiq Yusuff W

13-5
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 3 VS Featherweight Completed

Sodiq Yusuff

Moneyline
BetRivers -250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +200
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
FanDuel +145

Alex Caceres

Moneyline
Caesars +230
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
BetMGM +1000
Decision
BetRivers +450
Fighter Stats

Sodiq Yusuff

Age33
Height5' 9"
Reach71.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Alex Caceres

Age37
Height5' 10"
Reach73.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Sodiq Yusuff

5.27SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.29SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.36TD Avg
23.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Alex Caceres

4.21SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.09SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
0.54TD Avg
68.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Angelo picks Sodiq Yusuff because he is too powerful and fast on the feet for Alex Caceres. He notes that Caceres averages less than one takedown per fight and likely won't use his wrestling, so he will lose the striking exchanges. However, he suggests Caceres might be worth a plus 3.5 bet (buying a round on scorecards) as he could have moments of success.

Suggests Alex Caceres +3.5 points bet (available at BetOnline)
"i do think yusuf is just too powerful too fast on the feet and i think alex you know he averages less than one takedown per fight and i just don't see him using his wrestling to get …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Big Brady picks Sodiq Yusuff to win by decision. He notes Yusuff has more power and will land the harder shots, while Caceres is a volume striker with a black belt in BJJ but rarely goes for takedowns. He thinks the smaller cage favors Yusuff's pressure. He expects a competitive fight but Yusuff's power will be the difference, possibly hurting or dropping Caceres, but ultimately winning a decision.

"i'm gonna say yusuf does win this fight i'm gonna say yusuf does win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Cody leans Yusuff but is not confident. He notes Caceres' submission threat but believes Yusuff's power and pressure will be too much. He worries about Caceres' grappling but thinks Yusuff's takedown defense and ability to get up will suffice.

"i kind of end up in the use of corner but this one just feels like it's going to potentially be the apple pie shooter"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Daniel Levi picks Sodiq Yusuff, noting that he has been on Yusuff every fight except the Arnold Allen one. He believes Yusuff will walk Caceres down and use his Nigerian power and underrated ground game. Levi mentions that he has a bet on Yusuff at minus 220. He acknowledges Caceres's veteran tricks but thinks Yusuff's physicality and pressure will be too much.

i do have a bet on so deek at minus 220
"i do have a bet on so deek at minus 220"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Yusuff is a powerful striker returning from a loss to Arnold Allen. He has knockout power and good boxing, but cardio can be a concern if he grapples heavily. Caceres is on a five-fight win streak but against lesser competition, and was nearly finished by Seungwoo Choi. Yusuff is expected to land a big shot and knock out Caceres, likely in the first round.

KO line at plus money is mentioned as a potential play; predicted first-round KO.
"I think Yusuff is going to march him down, stalk him and land those big shots and I think eventually he's going to land a beautiful counter to put Alex Caceres' lights out."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Paul leans Yusuff but is not confident. He notes Caceres' submission threat but believes Yusuff's power and pressure will be too much. He worries about Caceres' grappling but thinks Yusuff's takedown defense and ability to get up will suffice.

"i kind of end up in the use of corner but this one just feels like it's going to potentially be the apple pie shooter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

The MMA Guru picks Sodiq Yusuff over Alex Caceres, citing Yusuff's maturity in grappling situations and his composure on the feet. He notes that Yusuff stayed calm against Andre Fili and Arnold Allen, showing good sprawls and top control. He believes Yusuff's power will be a difference-maker and predicts a second-round KO. However, he admits Caceres is a good underdog and that the odds are too wide, suggesting a small bet on Caceres might be worth it. He still thinks Yusuff prevails.

second round KO; Caceres is a good underdog bet
"i'm going to go with sadiq yousef over alex caceres the reason being is sadiq yusuf shows a level of maturity beyond his years in grappling situations"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Khalil Rountree Jr.

Khalil Rountree Jr. W

15-7
TKO (body kick and punches) R2 0:25
Fight 4 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Khalil Rountree Jr.

Moneyline
Caesars +125
KO/TKO
DraftKings +215
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
FanDuel +500

Karl Roberson

Moneyline
FanDuel -142
KO/TKO
FanDuel +260
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
FanDuel +300
Fighter Stats

Khalil Rountree Jr.

Age36
Height6' 1"
Reach76.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Karl Roberson

Age35
Height6' 1"
Reach74.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Khalil Rountree Jr.

3.88SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.33SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Karl Roberson

2.57SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
2.42SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.72TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
40.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Karl Roberson

Angelo gives a slight edge to Karl Roberson because he believes Roberson can hang in the striking and has a clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes that the skill gap on the ground is wider than on the feet, favoring Roberson. However, he acknowledges that Khalil Rountree is a very good striker and could knock Roberson out at any moment.

"i am giving the slight edge to roberson here because i think he can hang in the striking and there is a clear path to victory him for him with the takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karl Roberson

Big Brady picks Karl Roberson to win by third-round submission. He notes Roberson has never been knocked out and has underrated grappling, despite being submitted by elite grapplers. He points out that Rountree has zero takedowns in 11 UFC fights, so Roberson will likely keep the fight standing where he is the better striker. He also thinks Roberson can mix in takedowns and submit Rountree, who has poor takedown defense (50%). He expects Roberson to out-strike Rountree for two rounds then get a submission in the third.

third round submission
"i'm gonna say he wins this fight by like a third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Cody leans Rountree, citing his durability, power, and pressure. He notes Roberson's ground game is weak but Rountree won't exploit it. He sees it as a striking battle where Rountree's forward pressure and power give him the edge.

"i just think i'm going to go with durability towards khalil roundtree power towards kill roundtree"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Daniel Levi leans with Khalil Rountree Jr., citing his speed advantage and the fact that when Rountree is mentally on and there's no takedown threat, he can be a serious problem. He notes that both fighters have been flaky and can't be fully trusted, but Rountree's speed gives him the edge. Levi acknowledges that Karl Roberson might be tougher but thinks Rountree's speed is the difference.

"i'm going to lean with khalil roundtree with the speed advantage here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karl Roberson

Roberson is seen as the more technical striker with a better overall MMA game, including grappling and clinch work. He can nullify Rountree's early power and then chip away with kicks and takedowns. Rountree has been inconsistent, with losses to Prachnio and Cutelaba. Roberson is expected to win via decision, using a grapple-heavy game plan.

Decision line for Roberson at plus 300 is mentioned as intriguing; submission line also noted.
"I think Roberson is the side here. I'm not 100% sold on him yet though, but I do think he is the side."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul has no clear pick, calling it a dogger pass. He notes both fighters have moments but he doesn't trust either. He mentions Rountree's inconsistency and Roberson's cancellations.

"this one's more of a dogger pass to me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. over Karl Roberson, expecting a stand-up contest. He believes Rountree has a big advantage on the feet and will pull the trigger more than in his last fight. He predicts a KO in round two, as Rountree lands powerful shots and gains respect. He notes that Roberson has shown some grappling ability but doesn't think it will be enough to stop Rountree.

KO round 2
"i'm going to go with khalil roundtree here i think he's big enough strong enough to stop the grappling of carl roberson"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Drew Dober

Drew Dober W

29-15
TKO (knee and punches) R1 3:17
Fight 5 VS Lightweight Completed

Drew Dober

Moneyline
Caesars -155
KO/TKO
BetWay +163
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
FanDuel +320

Terrance McKinney

Moneyline
FanDuel +136
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
FanDuel +900
Fighter Stats

Drew Dober

Age37
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Terrance McKinney

Age31
Height5' 10"
Reach73.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Drew Dober

4.48SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
4.33SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.61TD Avg
16.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Terrance McKinney

6.53SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
3.45SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
3.31TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
2.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite being a short-notice replacement. He notes that McKinney is a Juco All-American wrestler with power and length, and that Brad Riddell was able to take Drew Dober down five times to win. He advises McKinney to wrestle rather than stand and bang. Angelo placed a 1-unit moneyline bet on McKinney at +185 and expects the line to move further.

Bet: 1 unit moneyline at +185; line movement comment
"i grabbed terence mckinney moneyline at plus 185 and if you want in on him i suggest you do it now because that line is moving"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Drew Dober to win by second-round knockout. He highlights Dober's phenomenal chin, power, and durability, and thinks McKinney's best chance is an early finish. He doubts McKinney can submit Dober on short notice, and if McKinney wrestles, he may gas out (as seen in the Sean Woodson fight). He expects Dober to weather the early storm and knock McKinney out in the second round.

second round knockout
"i liked over here quite a bit i think dober weather's the early storm in the first round and knocks mckenney out in that second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody is confident in Dober, citing his chin, power, and cardio advantage. He notes McKinney's early burst but believes Dober will weather it and take over in later rounds. He mentions Dober's takedown defense and ability to get up.

Drew Dober by KO at +200
"i'm probably more likely to end up on drew dober by ko which i see as a plus 200 offering"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Drew Dober

Daniel Levi picks Drew Dober but with hesitation, stating that his gut tells him it's a trap and he is staying away from betting. He thinks McKinney will take Dober down in the first round, but if Dober survives to the second and third, he can take over. Levi notes that Dober has improved his scrambling and escaped Islam Makhachev's armbar, but McKinney's momentum and power are concerns.

i'm actually going to stay away i just want to sit back watch this fight
"i'm gonna go with dover to uh to win this fight but my gut's been telling me all week it's a trap so i'm actually going to stay away"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

McKinney is a first-round finisher with power and submissions, and Dober has given up many takedowns recently. If McKinney doesn't finish early, Dober's cardio and striking could take over. However, the pick is McKinney via first-round submission, as his grappling and jiu-jitsu create sticky situations. The fight is expected to end inside the distance.

Fight doesn't go to decision is liked; McKinney round 1 at plus 450 and Dober round 3 at plus 1000 are mentioned as props.
"I'm going to go Terrance McKinney, and I think he pulls off another first round submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Paul is confident in Dober, citing his chin, power, and cardio. He notes McKinney's early threat but believes Dober will survive and finish late. He mentions Dober's takedown defense and ability to get up.

Drew Dober by KO
"i'm probably more likely to end up on drew dober by ko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Drew Dober, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes McKinney's activity, scrambles, and well-rounded game, and believes Dober's recent war with Brad Riddell and inactivity are concerns. He thinks McKinney's scrambles will mitigate Dober's strength and that McKinney will grind out a decision, winning top control positions. He notes that Dober is difficult to finish but expects McKinney to win 30-27.

decision 30-27
"i'm gonna go with terence mckinney as an underdog here ... it's a 50 50 fight in my opinion"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Alex Pereira

Alex Pereira W

13-3
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Middleweight Completed

Alex Pereira

Moneyline
BetMGM -190
KO/TKO
BetMGM -115
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
FanDuel +950

Bruno Silva

Moneyline
Caesars +180
KO/TKO
FanDuel +230
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
FanDuel +1400
Fighter Stats

Alex Pereira

Age38
Height6' 4"
Reach79.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Bruno Silva

Age36
Height6' 0"
Reach74"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Alex Pereira

5.16SLpM
62.0%Str. Acc.
3.5SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.11TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
79.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Bruno Silva

3.86SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
5.35SApM
41.0%Str. Def.
0.77TD Avg
22.0%TD Acc.
74.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Angelo picks Bruno Silva for the upset, citing his raw power and MMA experience. He notes that Silva has 28 professional fights compared to Pereira's five, and that the smaller UFC gloves may leave Pereira vulnerable to Silva's punches. He acknowledges Pereira's elite kickboxing but believes Silva can thread the needle and put him away. Angelo placed a 1-unit bet on Silva at +165.

Bet: 1 unit moneyline at +165
"i am taking a one unit chance on bruno silva at plus 165 he has looked absolutely unstoppable lately"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Big Brady picks the underdog Bruno Silva to win by first-round TKO. He believes Silva's path is to take the fight to the mat, where he has vicious ground-and-pound. He notes Silva has never been knocked out in 28 fights and has good cardio. He acknowledges Pereira is the better striker but thinks Silva can get takedowns, referencing Silva's wrestling outside the UFC. He expects a finish, as the 'fight doesn't go to decision' line is -600.

first round tko, fight doesn't go to decision -600
"i'm actually gonna take the dog here in bruno silva i'm gonna take him to get this fight down to the mat and uh tko alex prayer in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody is confident in Pereira, citing his striking pedigree and size advantage. He notes Silva's lack of wrestling and believes Pereira will knock him out. He mentions the line may move as people see Pereira's size.

Pereira by KO
"i think prayer ends up being a parlay piece"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Bruno Silva

Daniel Levi picks Bruno Silva at plus 170 odds, explaining that Silva has 28 pro fights and experience against tough competition. He believes Silva will close the distance, use dirty boxing, mix in takedowns, and knock Pereira out with ground and pound. Levi warns that if Silva tries to kickbox at distance, he deserves to lose, but he trusts Silva's experience and power. He also notes that Silva knocked out Pereira's teammate Wellington.

i actually took bruno silva here at plus 170 odds
"i actually took bruno silva here at plus 170 odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Silva is seen as a live underdog with more MMA experience and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He can use grappling and clinch to neutralize Pereira's striking, and has cardio to go the distance. Pereira's hype is based on a single UFC win where he struggled early. Silva is expected to win via decision, possibly grinding on Pereira.

Silva via decision line at crazy odds is mentioned as a potential poke; fight doesn't go to decision is advised against.
"I would not be doing my job if I didn't take the plus 150 that's currently hanging on Bruno Silva."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul is confident in Pereira, citing his striking and Silva's lack of wrestling. He notes Silva has never been knocked out but Pereira's power is different. He expects a KO.

Pereira by KO
"i think prayer ends up being a parlay piece"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira over Bruno Silva, predicting a first-round KO via check hook. He believes Silva will be hesitant and that Pereira's aura, reach, and kickboxing level will be decisive. He notes that Silva has failed many takedowns and hasn't used grappling effectively in the UFC, while Pereira showed good grappling defense against Andreas Michailidis. He acknowledges the matchup is dangerous but trusts Pereira's power and training with Glover Teixeira.

first round KO via check hook
"i'm going to go with alex peja here over bruno silva i'm going to pick him by ko probably in the first round check hook on bruno silva"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Matthew Semelsberger

Matthew Semelsberger W

11-8
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00
Fight 7 VS Welterweight Completed

Matthew Semelsberger

Moneyline
BetMGM -190
KO/TKO
FanDuel +140
Submission
BetRivers +950
Decision
FanDuel +380

AJ Fletcher

Moneyline
FanDuel +172
KO/TKO
BetRivers +550
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
BetRivers +650
Fighter Stats

Matthew Semelsberger

Age33
Height6' 1"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

AJ Fletcher

Age29
Height5' 10"
Reach67.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Matthew Semelsberger

3.77SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
4.24SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.01TD Avg
57.0%TD Acc.
45.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - AJ Fletcher

3.36SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.61SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
1.54TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (0)

No expert picks captured for this fight yet.

Fight Notes

No comments yet.

JJ Aldrich

JJ Aldrich W

15-7
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Women's Flyweight Completed

JJ Aldrich

Moneyline
BetMGM +110
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
BetRivers +200

Gillian Robertson

Moneyline
Caesars -115
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
FanDuel +200
Decision
FanDuel +380
Fighter Stats

JJ Aldrich

Age33
Height5' 5"
Reach67.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Gillian Robertson

Age31
Height5' 5"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - JJ Aldrich

3.96SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
4.32SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
0.75TD Avg
26.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Gillian Robertson

2.71SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
2.76TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
38.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Gillian Robertson because she is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base, averaging almost three takedowns per fight. He believes Robertson will be more physical and work the fight to the ground, as JJ Aldrich has not faced someone as physical or wrestling-heavy. He notes that the -150 odds are spot on and expects the line to move further in Robertson's favor.

Odds comment: -150 is spot on, expects line to move
"I like jillian here and i think these minus 150 odds that the bookmakers are keeping i think those are pretty spot on"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady picks the underdog JJ Aldrich to win by decision. He praises Aldrich's underrated grappling, takedown defense, and ability to control opponents on the mat, citing her performances against Vanessa Demopoulos and Paulina Viana. He notes Robertson has poor takedown defense (16%) and is content to play off her back, but Aldrich's BJJ is good enough to avoid submissions. He thinks Aldrich has more paths to victory: out-striking or controlling on the ground.

"i'm actually going to take the dog here in orders to win i'm going to take her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Cody picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking advantage. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.

Over 2.5 rounds
"i think the over over two and a half rounds is probably my favorite bet on the card"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Daniel Levi picks JJ Aldrich, arguing that Aldrich's stand-up is way higher than Robertson's and that she keeps her distance well. He believes if Aldrich stuffs the first few takedowns, Robertson will start flopping to her back, allowing Aldrich to take advantage. Levi acknowledges that if Robertson gets on top, Aldrich is a brown belt and can survive, but he sees Aldrich neutralizing Robertson and winning a decision.

"give me jj to kind of neutralize jillian and come out here and win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich has good boxing and takedown defense, but hasn't faced a relentless grappler like Robertson recently. She can keep the fight standing and use top control if taken down. Robertson is a submission specialist but may struggle to get takedowns. Aldrich is predicted to win via decision, with the over 2.5 rounds also considered.

Over 2.5 rounds at minus 125 is mentioned as a good look.
"I still land up on the JJ Aldrich side. She she's been good to me in the past."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Paul picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds
"i think the over over two and a half rounds is probably my favorite bet on the card"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Gillian Robertson, going against the grain. He highlights Aldrich's takedown defense, noting she hasn't been taken down since 2019 and pops right back up. He believes Aldrich is capable on the feet, training with Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko, and that Robertson won't be able to utilize her grappling. He predicts a grinding decision or a late-round TKO, as Aldrich is tough to submit.

decision or late round TKO
"i'm taking jj aldridge i'm going against a grain again here um jj aldridge i believe gets this one done she's very consistent she don't get held down by no one"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Javid Basharat

Javid Basharat W

15-2
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 9 VS Bantamweight Completed

Javid Basharat

Moneyline
FanDuel -158
KO/TKO
FanDuel +380
Submission
FanDuel +380
Decision
FanDuel +320

Trevin Jones

Moneyline
DraftKings +160
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
BetWay +700
Decision
FanDuel +400
Fighter Stats

Javid Basharat

Age30
Height5' 9"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Trevin Jones

Age35
Height5' 7"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Javid Basharat

5.18SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
2.75SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
1.83TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Trevin Jones

2.13SLpM
37.0%Str. Acc.
4.29SApM
39.0%Str. Def.
0.62TD Avg
15.0%TD Acc.
60.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Angelo picks Javid Basharat, praising his constant movement and ability to avoid power while getting his own takedowns. He notes that Trevin Jones is dangerous but Basharat's wrestling and distance management should be the difference. He acknowledges the Contender Series fade narrative but dismisses it.

"i like javid here to win his official ufc debut"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Big Brady hesitantly picks Javid Basharat to win a close decision. He acknowledges Basharat's impressive Contender Series performance but has concerns about his level of competition. He notes Trevin Jones has power and a black belt in BJJ, but his UFC performances have been inconsistent (getting beaten up before scoring knockouts). He thinks Basharat can get takedowns and control the fight, but it's a tough call.

"i'm gonna take javi basharat to win this fight i think on the feet it's going to be competitive"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Cody is confident in Basharat, citing his well-rounded skills and Jones' limitations. He notes Jones' power but believes Basharat's distance and timing will prevail. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds
"i think the under two and a half rounds if available to you is the play"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Javid Basharat

Daniel Levi picks Javid Basharat, praising his length, pace, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Basharat fights with his hands down a bit, which could be a concern against Trevin Jones's power, but believes Basharat will win the minutes and overwhelm Jones. Levi thinks Jones's last performance was poor and that Basharat will come forward and knock him out.

"i like javid bashrat to come out here and win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Basharat is a Contender Series alum with a diverse finishing ability and good takedown defense. He is a slick striker who uses range well and can scramble. Jones may land takedowns but will struggle to hold him down and has cardio issues. Basharat is predicted to win by second-round TKO or submission.

Under 2.5 rounds at minus 125 and fight doesn't go to decision at minus 150 are mentioned as potential plays.
"I like the Basharat side here. There's a couple guys that I respect around the Jones side. I completely get it. I completely understand it. But, I feel like this Basharat kid is is for real."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Paul is confident in Basharat, citing his well-rounded skills and Jones' limitations. He notes Jones' power but believes Basharat's distance and timing will prevail. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds
"i think the under two and a half rounds if available to you is the play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Javid Basharat over Trevin Jones, favoring his grappling-heavy approach. He notes that Jones has knockout power but was swarmed in his last fight, and he trusts Basharat's grappling to control Jones for three rounds. He predicts a 30-27 decision, with Basharat outgrappling Jones and not getting finished. He acknowledges possible octagon jitters but believes Basharat's grappling will be the difference.

decision 30-27
"i'm gonna go with javid basher out here i like his chances a little bit more um i like his grappling heavy approach"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Damon Jackson

Damon Jackson W

23-8-1
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 4:42
Fight 10 VS Featherweight Completed

Damon Jackson

Moneyline
BetWay -111
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1300
Submission
FanDuel +420
Decision
FanDuel +200

Kamuela Kirk

Moneyline
DraftKings +110
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
FanDuel +260
Fighter Stats

Damon Jackson

Age37
Height5' 11"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Kamuela Kirk

Age32
Height5' 10"
Reach75.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Damon Jackson

2.96SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.47SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
2.3TD Avg
32.0%TD Acc.
37.0%TD Def.
1.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kamuela Kirk

3.22SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
5.87SApM
40.0%Str. Def.
1.5TD Avg
26.0%TD Acc.
47.0%TD Def.
1.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson but is worried about his chin. He notes that Jackson is the better offensive wrestler and more technical striker, but Kirk has more power and Jackson can be chinny. He hopes Jackson sticks to a grapple-heavy game plan, similar to how Amira Connelly took Kirk down five times. He calls it a worrisome pick and says he wouldn't bet heavily on it.

"i am going to take a chance i'm going with damon jackson here and i just hope he's diving at legs that whole time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by second-round submission. He highlights Jackson's relentless pace and cardio, which he believes will break Kirk as the fight goes on, similar to what Billy Quarantillo did. He notes Jackson's 90% finish rate and that he has never lost a decision, but also has a questionable chin. He thinks Kirk could win inside the distance but expects Jackson to finish him in the second or third round.

second round submission
"i'm gonna take damon jackson to win i'm gonna take him to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Cody leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.

"i'm leaning towards kamala kirk"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Daniel Levi leans with Kamuela Kirk, citing that Kirk is the younger, hungrier fighter and that Damon Jackson has vulnerabilities, including being dropped and cut. He thinks Kirk's cardio issues from the Billy Q fight won't be as pronounced because Jackson doesn't push a high pace. Levi expects a close, back-and-forth fight but sees Kirk out-hustling down the stretch.

"i'm going to lean with the younger hungrier guy to to just kind of out hustle down the stretch"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a pressure grappler with good cardio and top control. He will look to take Kirk down and grind him out. Kirk is a well-rounded fighter but may struggle with Jackson's relentless wrestling. Jackson is predicted to win via decision, with the decision line at plus 205 noted.

Jackson via decision at plus 205 is the official prediction.
"I'm going to go Damon Jackson. I do think that this will be quite a back and forth fight. ... I see Jackson kind of controlling him for the majority of this fight and winning it via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Paul leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.

"i'm leaning towards kamala kirk"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

The MMA Guru picks Kamuela Kirk as an underdog over Damon Jackson, going against the majority. He highlights Kirk's ground game off his back, including a triangle choke, and a massive stand-up advantage. He notes that Kirk worked off the bottom against Makwan Amirkhani and didn't let him pass guard. He believes Kirk will out-hustle Jackson in a close decision, with damage favoring Kirk over Jackson's control time.

decision 29-28
"i'm going with kamuela kirk i'm going against the online experts again here i'm going with cameuela kirk i think he's got a really good ground game on bottom"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Miranda Maverick

Miranda Maverick W

17-6
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:15
Fight 11 VS Women's Flyweight Completed

Miranda Maverick

Moneyline
BetWay -333
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetRivers +500
Decision
FanDuel -120

Sabina Mazo

Moneyline
FanDuel +300
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1300
Submission
FanDuel +2500
Decision
FanDuel +420
Fighter Stats

Miranda Maverick

Age28
Height5' 3"
Reach65.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Sabina Mazo

Age29
Height5' 7"
Reach70.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Miranda Maverick

3.22SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.25SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
2.16TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
45.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Sabina Mazo

6.1SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
4.35SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.65TD Avg
80.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Angelo picks Miranda Maverick because she is too strong and has too much forward pressure for Sabina Mazo. He notes that Mazo is a kickboxer with powerful kicks but lacks power in her hands, while Maverick is a technical striker with solid forward pressure and takedowns. He compares the matchup to Alexis Davis's win over Mazo, where Davis pressured and grappled her. Angelo is confident in Maverick's ability to replicate that game plan.

"I think miranda maverick is too strong and has too much forward pressure for mazzo here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Big Brady picks Miranda Maverick to win by decision. He notes Maverick's striking has improved significantly, but her clear path is takedowns and ground control. He criticizes Mazo's poor takedown defense and get-up game, citing the Alexis Davis fight. He thinks Maverick will grind out a decision, but won't bet at the current price (-310).

"i'll say she uh she grinds out a decision here some decision random maverick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Cody is confident in Maverick, citing her wrestling and physicality. He notes Mazo's lack of power and takedown defense. He expects Maverick to dominate on the ground.

"i like random maverick and i would love to tell you that the fight's gonna go the distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Daniel Levi picks Miranda Maverick, stating that she is more physical and has more paths to victory. He notes that Sabina Mazo has looked timid and uncomfortable, while Maverick will dictate where the fight goes. Levi acknowledges that Maverick has slowed down in past fights and that the price is high, but he still thinks she gets it done. He is not interested in laying that price himself.

i just personally am not interested in laying that kind of price on miranda maverick
"i still think she gets it done i still think she's slightly uh more physical and has more paths to victory so i'm gonna pick her for that reason i just personally am not interested in laying that …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Maverick is a well-rounded fighter with good wrestling and striking. She moves well and blends her attacks. Mazo is on a losing streak and struggles with pressure. Maverick is expected to close distance, land takedowns, and win via TKO in the third round. She is a strong parlay piece.

Inside the distance line is mentioned as a potential play; predicted third-round TKO via ground and pound.
"I like Maverick a lot in this spot. I think she cruises pretty easily. So, let's go ... I'm going to go Miranda Maverick second or third round let's call it third round TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Paul is confident in Maverick, citing her wrestling and physicality. He notes Mazo's lack of power and takedown defense. He expects Maverick to dominate on the ground.

"i like random maverick and i would love to tell you that the fight's gonna go the distance"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick over Sabina Mazo, citing a clear grappling advantage. He notes that Mazo was held down easily by Alexis Davis and struggles to get back to her feet. He believes Maverick will mix in takedowns and dominate on the ground, predicting a 30-27 decision or a rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Mazo's length and range on the feet but thinks Maverick's wrestling will be the difference-maker.

30-27 decision or rear-naked choke
"i am going to go with miranda maverick here over sabine marzo i think miranda maverick's got a good grappling advantage here"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Cody Brundage

Cody Brundage W

11-9-1
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:41
Fight 12 VS Middleweight Completed

Cody Brundage

Moneyline
Caesars +125
KO/TKO
DraftKings +650
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
BetMGM +250

Dalcha Lungiambula

Moneyline
BetMGM -125
KO/TKO
FanDuel +185
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
FanDuel +430
Fighter Stats

Cody Brundage

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Dalcha Lungiambula

Age38
Height5' 8"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Cody Brundage

2.26SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.02SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.88TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Dalcha Lungiambula

3.07SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.93SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
2.14TD Avg
45.0%TD Acc.
77.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cody Brundage

Angelo picks Cody Brundage to get his first UFC win, but is nervous about Dalcha Lungiambula's knockout power. He notes that Brundage needs to grapple and wear out Dalcha, while Dalcha is low volume and has a negative striking differential. He prefers to bet the over 1.5 rounds rather than the moneyline.

Prefers over 1.5 rounds if available
"i like cody to get his first ufc win here i will be biting my nails the entire fight and i will probably be looking to bet the round lines instead of the money line"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dalcha Lungiambula

Big Brady picks Dalcha Lungiambula to win by second-round knockout. He highlights Lungiambula's strength, takedown defense (75%), and power, noting that Brundage will struggle to get the fight to the mat. He expects Brundage to gas out if his takedowns are stuffed, and then Lungiambula will knock him out. He references Lungiambula's improved cardio from his last fight.

second round knockout
"i like dolce to win here i'm going to take dolce to win my second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cody Brundage

Cody leans Brundage, citing his wrestling advantage. He notes Lungiambula's poor grappling defense and believes Brundage can take him down and control. He is not confident due to Brundage's chin issues.

"i'm going slightly towards cody because when i don't bet on guys named cody that's when they usually win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dalcha Lungiambula

Daniel Levi picks Dalcha Lungiambula, explaining that while Cody Brundage has a D2 wrestling background, he gets discouraged when takedowns don't work. Levi believes Dolce has African power and will dig deeper when both guys are tired. He thinks Brundage may land a takedown or two, but Dolce's willingness to push through will prevail.

"i'm going to pick him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dalcha Lungiambula

Lungiambula has power and clinch work, and is training at Sanford MMA. Brundage has shown poor fight IQ and cardio issues. The fight is expected to be grapple-heavy, with Lungiambula controlling the clinch and grinding out a decision. The over 2.5 rounds is also favored.

Over 2.5 rounds at minus 115 is liked; Lungiambula via decision at plus 400 is mentioned as a prop.
"I do lean on the Dalcha side though cuz, you know, we've seen him go up against levels of competition."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dalcha Lungiambula

Paul leans Lungiambula, citing his power and durability. He notes Brundage's chin issues and believes Lungiambula can land a big shot. He is not confident.

"i'll lean towards dalka"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dalcha Lungiambula

The MMA Guru picks Dalcha Lungiambula over Cody Brundage, noting that Brundage has a grappling background but Lungiambula has shown good scrambling and takedown defense. He references that Ankalaev only got one takedown on Lungiambula and opted to stand, indicating no massive grappling hole. He predicts Lungiambula will stuff takedowns, land ground-and-pound elbows, and finish by third-round TKO as Brundage gasses.

third round TKO via elbows and ground-and-pound
"i'm going to go with daoche yambula cody brundage does have a grappling background so that could be interesting against a guy like douchey lingambulla of course wants to keep things standing"
Fight Notes

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Guido Cannetti

Guido Cannetti W

10-8
TKO (punches) R1 2:07
Fight 13 VS Bantamweight Completed

Guido Cannetti

Moneyline
FanDuel +154
KO/TKO
BetMGM +650
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
FanDuel +280

Kris Moutinho

Moneyline
BetRivers -150
KO/TKO
FanDuel +310
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
FanDuel +260
Fighter Stats

Guido Cannetti

Age46
Height5' 6"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Kris Moutinho

Age33
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Guido Cannetti

3.44SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
2.84SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.27TD Avg
55.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kris Moutinho

3.35SLpM
33.0%Str. Acc.
9.36SApM
30.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
30.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Angelo leans toward Kris Moutinho due to his durability, noting that he absorbed 230 strikes against Sean O'Malley and kept coming. He acknowledges that Guido Cannetti is a technical striker but aging, and that Moutinho is young and tough. However, he admits he has no strong read on this fight and that Cannetti could win a decision.

"i will lean motino here just because of his durability i mean anybody who can take that kind of beating i just kind of lean on him there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Big Brady hesitantly picks Kris Moutinho, citing Moutinho's youth (13 years younger), height and reach advantage, and better cardio. He acknowledges Cannetti is the better fighter but only has one round of cardio at 42 years old. He expects Moutinho to walk forward, eat punches, and take over late to win a close, greasy decision. He is not betting this fight, especially with Moutinho as a favorite.

"i'm gonna take moutinho hesitantly i'm definitely not betting it especially as a favorite"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Cody leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.

"moutino is where i would pick here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Daniel Levi picks Kris Moutinho, noting that Guido Cannetti is 43 years old and gasses out past the first round. He believes Moutinho's durability and volume will break Cannetti down, likely winning a decision. Levi acknowledges that Moutinho is not the best but thinks this matchup favors him against an aging opponent.

"i'm gonna go chris matino"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Moutinho is expected to land crisper shots down the middle and win via decision. However, the fight is highly volatile with many possible outcomes. Cannetti has leg kicks and power, but Moutinho's durability is a question. The host is not betting this fight due to volatility.

Over 2.5 rounds at minus 130 is mentioned as a lean; Cannetti KO at plus 500 is noted as a hedge.
"I believe it's going to be Moutinho landing the crisper shots down the middle. I don't think he puts out Cannetti. So, I do think that we see Moutinho go out there and win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Paul leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.

"moutino is where i would pick here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti as an underdog over Kris Moutinho, believing Moutinho is 'garbage at fighting' despite his name value from the Sean O'Malley fight. He highlights Cannetti's underrated skills, including dominating Marlon Vera in the first round of their fight. He expects a grinding fight where Cannetti uses his grappling to take Moutinho down and win by TKO or submission. He plans to wait for better odds as money comes in on Moutinho.

TKO or submission; underdog bet
"i'm going to wait until i put some money on guido connetti as an underdog here against chris moutinho i get that he took punishment for three rounds against o'malley but he's absolute garbage at fighting"
Fight Notes

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Azamat Murzakanov

Azamat Murzakanov W

16-1
KO (flying knee) R3 0:44
Fight 14 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Azamat Murzakanov

Moneyline
BetRivers -182
KO/TKO
FanDuel +175
Submission
BetMGM +700
Decision
BetRivers +350

Tafon Nchukwi

Moneyline
BetWay +170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
FanDuel +3400
Decision
FanDuel +380
Fighter Stats

Azamat Murzakanov

Age37
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Tafon Nchukwi

Age31
Height6' 0"
Reach77.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Azamat Murzakanov

4.7SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.55TD Avg
15.0%TD Acc.
87.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tafon Nchukwi

5.57SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
4.11SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.76TD Avg
57.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, expecting him to use his wrestling despite being known for striking. He notes that Tafon Nchukwi has more high-level experience but tends to back up and slow down under pressure. He believes Murzakanov's forward pressure and wrestling will be the difference.

"i actually think as matt will go to his wrestling here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady picks Azamat Murzakanov to win by first-round TKO. He notes Murzakanov is very well-rounded with heavy hands and a solid top game, but has cardio concerns since he's never been to a third round. He thinks Murzakanov can hurt Nchukwi on the feet or take him down and finish him, referencing Nchukwi's poor get-up game against Jung Park. However, he won't bet the fight due to the cardio and low-output risks.

first round tko
"I'm gonna take azamat murzakanov to win i'm gonna take him to win by first round tko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Cody is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.

Parlay with Ankalaev at -106
"i think murzakanov seems to be a pretty complete package"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Levi picks Azamat Murzakanov, stating that he is a little more experienced, smarter, and more comfortable in the cage. He thinks Murzakanov will point-fight for three rounds or possibly find a finish. Levi acknowledges Tafon Nchukwi's power and potential but believes Murzakanov's experience and fewer mistakes will be the difference.

"i'm gonna go with azuma to to get the win here man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Murzakanov is a fast, agile striker with good cardio and takedown ability. He can close distance quickly and has power in both hands. Nchukwi has speed and cardio issues, and may overextend. Murzakanov is expected to outwork Nchukwi over 15 minutes or finish late, with a decision at plus 320 being a value play.

Murzakanov via decision at plus 320 is the official prediction.
"I like Azamat here. I think he outworks Tafon over 15 minutes or he potentially finishes Tafon late in this fight. So as an official prediction, I will go with Murzakanov via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul is confident in Murzakanov, citing his speed, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Nchukwi's size but believes Murzakanov's speed and pressure will be too much. He mentions a parlay with Ankalaev.

Parlay with Ankalaev
"i think murzakanov seems to be a pretty complete package"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

The MMA Guru picks Azamat Murzakanov over Tafon Nchukwi, citing his nasty hands and power advantage. He notes that Murzakanov has laid opponents out cold and has grappling to fall back on, referencing a video of him beating Ion Cuțelaba in a grappling competition. He predicts a first-round TKO, trusting Murzakanov's physicality and technique despite Nchukwi having good stand-up of his own.

first round TKO
"i'm going to start straight away with azamat mazakanov here i think he's a favorite for a reason he's a very very promising contender beat some good opponents laid a guy out cold in his last fight"
Fight Notes

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