UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley

Angelo picks Buckley because he is younger, more active, and has speed and power. He notes that Usman is aging, hasn't fought in two years, and is on a losing streak. He believes Buckley will stay a step ahead and that the UFC is using Usman to build the next generation.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley by third-round knockout. He believes Usman is past his prime, citing a two-year layoff, bad knees, and a washed performance in the second Edwards fight. He thinks Buckley is in his prime with power and will catch Usman's chin. He notes that a few years ago this would be a different fight, but now it's Buckley's time.

Connor picks Buckley, emphasizing that Usman's striking is built on posturing and a steady rhythm, and that Buckley's relentless pressure and power will disrupt that. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power striker and that Buckley's wrestling scrambles and durability will be key. Connor also points out that Usman's age and knee issues make him vulnerable to being overwhelmed, though he acknowledges Usman could still catch Buckley with clean shots or force him into bad wrestling exchanges.

Age and bad knees are catching up to Usman at 38. Buckley is younger and better at this moment. He will stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and find a knockout between three and a half to four rounds.

The Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, noting value on Usman but favoring Buckley's movement, output, and physicality. He predicts Buckley will get ahead early and stay ahead, finishing Usman by TKO in the fourth round. He cites Usman's long layoff, knee issues, and inability to physically dominate Buckley as key factors.

Zane picks Buckley because he believes Buckley's youth, power, pace, and relentless pressure will overwhelm the older, worn-down Usman. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power puncher like Buckley, and that Buckley's improved speed changes and physicality make him a bully at welterweight. Zane acknowledges Usman's technical advantages but thinks Buckley's hustle and stamina will carry him through, especially as Usman's knees and age have diminished his ability to maintain his own pace.

Angelo picks Rose because she is the better striker with superior footwork and technique. He acknowledges Miranda's wrestling threat but believes Rose can defend takedowns and out-strike her. He expresses concern about Rose's training situation but hopes she strings it together like she did against Tracy Cortez.

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas by decision. He believes Rose is the better fighter overall, with superior striking and the ability to get takedowns against Maverick's sub-50% takedown defense. He worries slightly about Maverick's strength but notes Rose has done well at flyweight. He thinks Rose should win at least two rounds in a three-round fight.

Connor picks Namajunas, agreeing that Maverick is a 'Jake Matthews of women's flyweight'—athletic but aimless, with no clear idea how to win. He notes that Namajunas is much better in the clinch than she used to be and that Maverick's wrestling entries are poor. Connor believes Namajunas's speed, accuracy, and combination punching will allow her to outwork Maverick, and that Maverick's tendency to float and try things without a plan will be her undoing.

This is a closer fight than the odds suggest, but Namajunas's striking will reign supreme. She may have issues with Maverick's strength and clinch work, but she will get into open space, land more damage, and win a clear decision.

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas, calling her a much better technical martial artist. He notes her grappling defense and standup are superior, and she has size at flyweight. He expects a unanimous decision win, 30-27, as Rose outclasses Maverick everywhere.

Zane picks Namajunas, citing her superior craft, movement, and jab-heavy striking as a clear advantage over Maverick's aimless, unprincipled game. He notes that Maverick lacks a clear process and often gets caught up striking when she should wrestle, while Namajunas is accurate, fast, and effective at kicking range. Zane believes Namajunas can outpoint Maverick over three rounds, as Maverick has consistently lost to fighters with a strong game plan.

Angelo leans Edmen because he is the better athlete and hits hard, and Andre's chin is suspect. He notes that even if Andre gets takedowns, Edmen can survive and have an edge on the feet. However, he feels the odds are a trap and expects a close fight.

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan by first-round knockout. He notes that Shahbazyan has a 7.5-minute window to finish before his cardio fades, and that Petroski has been knocked out in all his losses. He believes Shahbazyan will land a knockout early, but suggests a live bet on Petroski if the fight goes past the first round.

Connor picks Shahbazyan but is very hesitant, calling the fight a coin flip. He notes that Shahbazyan's problems are fundamental and unlikely to go away, but that Petroski's tendency to gas and his clumsy striking make him vulnerable to an early finish. Connor points out that Shahbazyan's best chance is to knock Petroski out in the first round, as Petroski has been finished early before. If Petroski survives, his durability and grinding style could break Shahbazyan.

Petroski's grappling and power punching will thwart Shahbazyan's striking. He will pin him against the cage, drag him to the ground, and possibly find a submission in the second or third round, but ultimately win on the scorecards.

The Guru initially wavers but ultimately picks Andre Petroski by submission in the third round. He acknowledges Shahbazyan is the better martial artist with superior standup, but fears Shahbazyan will 'fumble' again. He expects Petroski to implement his wrestling and get a late arm-triangle choke, calling it a coin flip.

Zane picks Shahbazyan but is hesitant, acknowledging that Shahbazyan's mental fragility is a major concern. He thinks Petroski is prone to getting overloaded early and that Shahbazyan's power and sharpness in round one could finish him. However, Zane notes that if Petroski survives the first round, he likely wins by grinding Shahbazyan down with wrestling and pressure, as Shahbazyan tends to collapse when his initial blitz fails.

Angelo leans Cody because he is faster and has power, while Raoni lacks power in his hands. He warns that Cody must avoid getting taken down. He is not confident enough to bet on Cody given his recent struggles.

Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt by second-round knockout. He believes Garbrandt's takedown defense is elite (80%) and that he can keep the fight standing. He notes Barcelos is 38 with a questionable chin, and Garbrandt has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges multiple outcomes but leans toward a knockout.

Connor picks Barcelos, emphasizing that Garbrandt's wrestling has declined and that Barcelos's chain wrestling and takedown variety will be a major threat. He notes that Garbrandt's tunnel vision when he feels confident often leads to him getting taken down, as seen against Figueiredo. Connor also points out that Barcelos is 38 and chinny, so Garbrandt could still knock him out, but Barcelos's wrestling should be the deciding factor.

Despite public love for Barcelos after his upset win, Garbrandt has good takedown defense and superior striking. He will chip away at Barcelos and win a decision.

The Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, stating he is 'done with Cody Garbrandt.' He criticizes Garbrandt's fundamental flaws in striking and grappling, such as giving up his back and poor low kicks. He notes Barcelos has faced tough competition and fraud-checked Payton Talbott. He expects Barcelos to win by decision or TKO in the second round.

Zane picks Barcelos, citing his deep wrestling game and ability to chain takedowns, which should be effective against Garbrandt's shaky takedown defense. He notes that Garbrandt has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and that Barcelos's wrestling has improved with age. However, Zane acknowledges that Barcelos's striking has become a liability and that Garbrandt still has one-punch power, making this a dangerous fight for both.

Angelo picks Mansur because he believes the adversity in his last fight gave him a wake-up call. He expects Mansur to wrestle and avoid a firefight with Cody, who is dangerous early. He notes that if Mansur engages in a firefight, he is screwed.

Big Brady picks Mansur Abdul-Malik by first-round knockout. He expects a violent fight where both swing, but believes Malik's power and ground-and-pound will be too much for Brundage. He notes Brundage is dangerous early but has been fed tough opponents, and Malik is the most terrifying yet.

Connor picks Abdul-Malik, emphasizing the massive reach advantage (79.5 vs 72 inches) and Brundage's tendency to implode when his initial plan fails. He notes that Abdul-Malik is a composed, powerful fighter who will make Brundage work to get inside, leaving him open to counters. Connor thinks Brundage's only chance is an early guillotine, but that is unlikely.

Abdul-Malik's athleticism, explosivity, and power will find a big shot to put Brundage away early. Brundage is expected to break quickly under that pressure.

The Guru picks Mansur Abdul-Malik, calling him a powerful prospect who will finish Cody Brundage in the first round. He notes Brundage's tendency to 'tuck up in a ball' when grappling doesn't go his way, as seen against Sedriques Dumas. He expects a TKO, though he acknowledges Brundage could win if he gets a guillotine.

Zane picks Abdul-Malik confidently, noting that Brundage's shallow game plan and inability to adjust will leave him exposed. He points out that Abdul-Malik is young, powerful, and composed, and that Brundage's only path is to wrestle, but he lacks the depth to maintain it. Zane compares this to the Abdul-Razak Alhassan fight where Brundage was brutally finished.

Angelo picks Oumar Sy because he is a young, dangerous prospect with explosive power and improving cardio. He believes Oumar will be a step ahead of the aging Menifield and beat him to the punch.

Big Brady picks Oumar Sy by decision. He likes Sy's well-rounded game and striking improvement, but notes that Alonzo Menifield has strong takedown defense (78%). He believes Sy's youth and cardio will be key, and that Menifield's last war with Julius Walker was not a good look.

Connor picks Sy, noting that Menifield's technical improvements have come too late and his physicality is declining. He highlights that Sy is a better athlete and more composed, with functional kickboxing and a strong wrestling base. Connor believes Menifield will struggle to maintain output and will be outworked, as Sy's confidence will grow as the fight goes on.

Menifield is declining while Sy is on the rise. Sy will use his physicality and strength to keep Menifield against the cage, drag him to the ground, and grind out a decision win.

The Guru picks Oumar Sy, calling him a top prospect who fights like Ciryl Gane. He notes Sy's movement, teeps, and ability to stay elusive, contrasting with Menifield's low fight IQ. He expects Sy to win by decision, possibly 30-27 or 29-28, and thinks Menifield will struggle to land his power shots.

Zane picks Sy, arguing that Menifield is a mentally broken fighter who has only beaten self-destructive opponents. He notes that Sy is a consistent, well-rounded fighter with good kickboxing and wrestling, and that Menifield's cardio and composure will fail him. Zane points out that Sy handled Da Un Jung's pressure well and that Menifield's power is a new test, but Sy's durability and output should win.

Angelo picks Bellato because Paul Craig is not very good and has no evolution in his game. He notes that Bellato should win by keeping his elbows in on the ground and bombing away on the feet. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but Bellato should avoid getting submitted.

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round knockout. He notes that Paul Craig is near retirement and has struggled at middleweight. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but believes Bellato can keep the fight standing and knock him out, as long as he treats the ground like lava.

Bellato will keep the fight upright and use his striking to damage Craig, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds. He is not expected to attempt a submission.

The Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, despite being a former Paul Craig supporter. He doubts Craig's chin and offensive intent, noting Craig struggled against Bo Nickal. He highlights Bellato's training with Luke Rockhold for grappling and expects a first-round TKO, as Bellato should be safe on the feet if he doesn't shoot into Craig's guard.

Angelo leans Court McGee because he is all-in on fighting while Chiesa has outside distractions. He notes that McGee looked great in his last fight and is durable. He believes whoever gets the first takedown wins, and McGee is strong enough to avoid submissions.

Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa by decision but is hesitant, noting that Court McGee has great takedown defense and has fought tough grapplers. He believes Chiesa has a little left in the tank while McGee is older and has been knocked out recently. He expects a competitive fight despite the wide line.

Chiesa's superior grappling will keep McGee in bad spots, likely snatching the back and grinding out a decision win.

The Guru picks Michael Chiesa by submission, noting Chiesa has been given favorable matchups recently (Tony Ferguson, Max Griffin). He expects Chiesa to take McGee down and get a submission in the first or second round, citing McGee's age (mid-40s) and Chiesa's back-take game.

Angelo is extremely confident in Wellmaker, calling him a powerful striker with great accuracy and timing. He notes that Moutinho is not durable and has been finished in most losses. He believes Wellmaker will maul Moutinho.

Big Brady picks Malcolm Wellmaker by first-round knockout, calling it a mismatch. He criticizes Kris Moutinho's terrible striking defense (28%) and notes he has been knocked out by lesser competition. He believes Wellmaker hits like a truck and will finish Moutinho early.

Wellmaker is the superior striker and will showcase that, but his defensive mistakes could allow Moutinho to capitalize. Despite picking Wellmaker to win, the minus-300 odds are considered too wide to trust.

The Guru picks Malcolm Wellmaker, praising his power and athleticism. He contrasts Wellmaker's counter hook with Sean O'Malley's straight punches, arguing Moutinho can absorb straight shots but will be vulnerable to Wellmaker's hooks. He predicts a first-round KO, calling it an 'absolute mismatch.' He also mentions a prop bet on Wellmaker landing under 27.5 significant strikes.

Angelo leans Cody Durden because he is battle-tested and relentless with takedowns. He notes that Jose has good takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler as determined as Cody. He acknowledges Cody's suspect chin but believes his pressure will be key.

Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa by second-round submission. He likes Ochoa's striking and sneaky submission game, and notes that Cody Durden has been taking damage and has four submission losses. He believes Ochoa is dangerous everywhere and will either knock out Durden or snatch a submission.

Ochoa's superior striking and aggressive BJJ will overwhelm Durden. He will eventually secure a submission and force the tap.

The Guru picks Jose Ochoa, impressed by his performance against Lone'er Kavanagh where he showed finishing ability and hurt him to the body. He notes Ochoa is a 'nasty finisher' with submission skills, and expects a finish in the first two rounds, possibly by body shot or submission after hurting Durden.

The Guru picks Ricky Simón, noting he is 'barely a favorite' and sees value. He highlights Simón's momentum from a KO win over Javid Basharat and his power in the pocket. He criticizes Smotherman's quick turnaround after a loss where he took damage, and trusts Simón's fundamentals and grappling options.

Angelo leans Ange Loosa because he expects him to be busier and out-volume Rowe. He notes that Rowe can be hesitant and flat, as seen in his last fight. He thinks Loosa can sneak out a close decision.

Big Brady picks Ange Loosa, noting that Philip Rowe tends to start slow and come back late, but Loosa is durable and has never been knocked out. He believes Loosa's toughness and cardio will allow him to win a decision, as Rowe's best wins have aged poorly. He also mentions Loosa can mix in takedowns.

Loosa's power punching, strength, and physicality will keep Rowe against the cage or drag him to the ground, neutralizing Rowe's distance striking. Loosa will grind out a decision win.

The Guru picks Philip Rowe to finish Ange Loosa, citing Loosa's tendency to be 'manipulatable' and cover up with his back against the cage. He notes Rowe's ability to work opponents up against the cage, as seen against Niko Price. He expects a finish, possibly by D'Arce choke, and mentions a prop bet on Loosa landing under 69.5 significant strikes.

Angelo picks Horth because of her size advantage and ability to defend takedowns against the cage. He believes her range, length, and striking will be too much for Demopoulos, who is stepping up on short notice.

Big Brady picks Jamey-Lyn Horth due to her significant size and strength advantages, noting a 5-inch height and 6.5-7 inch reach advantage. He believes Horth will use her size to push Demopoulos against the cage and take her down, similar to how Allen Carr controlled Demopoulos. He acknowledges Demopoulos has been on the winning side of questionable decisions but expects Horth to win a boring decision. He is surprised Horth is a -475 favorite but agrees with the line.

Horth's size, physicality, and strength are expected to overwhelm Demopoulos, who is coming up a weight class on short notice. Horth will pin Demopoulos against the cage, drag her to the ground, and grind out a decision win.

The Guru picks Jamey-Lyn Horth based on her physicality advantage, noting she is 5'7" to Demopoulos's 5'2" with more reach. He criticizes Demopoulos's lack of technical skill, saying she 'has no idea what she's doing' and spent 13 minutes on bottom in her last fight. He expects Horth to outgrapple Demopoulos and win a 30-27 decision.