Justin Gaethje

AJ sees this as a massive mismatch, calling it the 'mismatch of mismatches.' He believes Topuria's crisp boxing, speed, and combination punching will be too much for Gaethje, who looked slow against Pimblett and is past his prime. AJ notes Topuria's ability to work the body and set up head shots, and he expects a knockout, possibly quick. He dismisses Gaethje's calf kick as his only path and says aside from that, he doesn't see a way Gaethje can win.

AJ believes Topuria's hands are too precise and his boxing is too elite for Gaethje. He mentions that Gaethje's calf kicks and forward pressure give him a chance, but ultimately Topuria's striking is different and he expects Topuria to get the win.

AJ picks Topuria to win by knockout, citing his surgical hands, precise punching, and elite reflexes. He believes Gaethje's defensive irresponsibility and willingness to take one to land one will lead to him being dropped and knocked out. AJ also notes the personal rivalry adds to the intensity, and he predicts a highlight-reel finish, possibly with body work.

AJ is extremely confident Topuria will knock out Gaethje, citing Topuria's elite boxing, head movement, and combinations. He notes Gaethje's sloppy defense and wild style, and believes Gaethje's lack of kicking and takedown threats will leave him in a boxing match where Topuria dominates. He predicts a first or second round KO.

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria, believing he is too fast and hits too hard for Gaethje. He notes Ilia's wrestling background and adaptability, and that Gaethje's only chance is to weather a storm and make it ugly. He anticipates a first-round knockout.

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria because he is the cleaner, more accurate striker with knockout power. He notes that Justin Gaethje has poor striking defense and relies on taking a beating, but Topuria's precision should be too much. He acknowledges Gaethje's puncher's chance but believes Topuria's wrestling and overall skills will prevail.

Big Brady is very confident in Ilia Topuria, citing his power and recent wins over Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He believes Gaethje is overrated based on his last fight and notes Topuria has multiple paths to victory including knockout and grappling. He has a big bet on Topuria and under 2.5 rounds same game parlay at -150, totaling 4.5 units.

Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by first-round knockout. He believes Topuria is better everywhere, more durable, younger, and has fought tougher competition. He expects Gaethje to stand and trade, and Topuria's power will be too much. He also notes Topuria could submit Gaethje if he takes him down, as Gaethje has been submitted quickly when taken down.

Connor believes Topuria is a massive power puncher who will absolutely cream Gaethje inside a round. He notes Gaethje is a 37-year-old also-ran who never had the technical dexterity to be a real champion, while Topuria is extremely powerful and technical. Connor emphasizes Topuria's excellent footwork and weight transfer, allowing him to plant and throw with thudding power.

Daniel Levi favors Ilia Topuria due to his cleaner boxing, superior combination setting, and ability to finish fights. He notes Topuria's well-roundedness, including calf kicks and body work, and contrasts Gaethje's tendency to get rocked in fights, which is dangerous against a power puncher like Topuria. Levi also mentions Gaethje's age (37) and potential decline, and Topuria's mental focus despite outside distractions. He predicts a knockout victory for Topuria.

The host acknowledges Topuria is much more likely to win (implied 81%) but cannot bet him at those odds. Gaethje has paths to victory (power, size, personal issues affecting Topuria), but the host passes on pre-fight betting, preferring to live bet.

Jacob picks Ilia Topuria, stating that Gaethje only has a puncher's chance. He believes Topuria will make reads and find shots, and that Gaethje's sloppy tendencies will be exploited. He expects Topuria to get it done early, possibly within two minutes.

Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria to win via knockout in round one. He emphasizes Topuria's elite boxing with seven- and eight-punch combinations that MMA fighters struggle to defend, his durability at lightweight, and his elite grappling which could be used to tire Gaethje or secure a submission. He notes Gaethje's calf kicks and power as potential threats but believes Topuria is simply on another level.

Topuria's speed, explosiveness, and power will be too much for Gaethje. Gaethje's chin may not hold up against Topuria's power, especially early. Topuria will march forward and land a knockout, likely in round 1. He could also use his grappling if needed, but expects a statement KO.

The host expects Topuria's hard-nosed striking style to find Gaethje's chin and knock him out under 1.5 rounds. He is confident in Topuria's ability to finish the fight early.

The Guru picks Ilia Topuria by KO in round 2. He notes that Gaethje has not scored a KO in recent fights and lacks one-shot power to put Topuria away. He expects Topuria to use calf kicks and body jabs to set up a right hand over the top, finishing Gaethje against the cage. He acknowledges Gaethje may have moments in round 1 but believes Topuria's power and timing will prevail.

Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett but with low confidence, calling the line disrespectful. He trusts Paddy's grappling and durability, believing he can avoid getting knocked out and land takedowns. He acknowledges Justin Gaethje's toughness and striking volume but thinks Paddy's youth and recent improvements give him the edge. He says he is not betting on this fight.

Big Brady thinks the ground is lava for Gaethje, who gets dominated and submitted when taken down. He notes Pimblett has a massive grappling advantage and will likely get the fight to the mat. On the feet, Gaethje is better but hasn't knocked anyone out recently except Poirier, and Pimblett is durable. He predicts Pimblett by second-round submission.

Cody picks Justin Gaethje as an underdog, citing Gaethje's proven durability, cardio, and experience against top competition. He questions Paddy's resume, noting he hasn't faced the upper echelon of the division. Cody believes Gaethje's striking and pressure will be key, and he likes the plus money value.

Connor picks Gaethje but is hesitant, acknowledging that Pimblett's style is a real threat. He argues that Gaethje's low kicks and pocket power could be decisive, and that Pimblett's 42% striking defense is historically terrible. However, he admits Gaethje has lost speed and finishing touch, and that Pimblett's durability and grappling could cause problems. Connor ultimately trusts Gaethje's experience and power to find a finish, but says he doesn't feel good about it.

Daniel Vreeland picks Paddy Pimblett to win by finish. He notes that Gaethje is aging at 37 and has been rocked in many fights, while Pimblett is durable, improving, and has a deceptive ground game. Vreeland believes Pimblett can time Gaethje's kicks and land a hook, and that his jiu-jitsu and durability will be key. He also mentions that Gaethje has been submitted before and that Pimblett's confidence is high.

James highlights a massive grappling disparity, noting Pimblett is a legitimate black belt while Gaethje is a blue belt who admitted to not training grappling. He believes Pimblett will get the fight to the ground via clinch trips or judo throws and submit Gaethje, possibly with a triangle choke. He also notes Gaethje's durability issues and a potential staph infection. James predicts a submission win in round three.

The host believes Paddy Pimblett's size, strength, and grappling will be too much for an aging Justin Gaethje. He notes that Gaethje's best chance is to box and use leg kicks, but expects Pimblett to eventually drag him to the mat and secure a submission, similar to his win over Michael Chandler. The host acknowledges the line at -225 is a bit wide but sees Pimblett catching Gaethje at the perfect time.

Paul leans toward Paddy Pimblett, noting his improved lifestyle and cardio. He believes Paddy's grappling will be the difference over five rounds, potentially securing a submission. However, he is hesitant on the money line and prefers the prop bet of Paddy by submission at +185.

The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission, citing Gaethje's grappling vulnerabilities and Pimblett's jiu-jitsu. He notes that Gaethje's KO power is inconsistent and that Pimblett can slow the pace. He predicts an armbar or triangle.

Connor picks Gaethje because he has more faith in Gaethje's cardio and durability than Fiziev's coming off a knee injury and short notice. He notes that Fiziev faded in their first fight and has not looked good since, while Gaethje's loss to Holloway was a stylistic nightmare that doesn't reflect his overall level. Connor believes Gaethje's jab and pressure will be too much for a rusty Fiziev.

Lucrative James picks Fiziev but is not confident due to intangibles like Gaethje's recent KO loss and Fiziev's knee injury layoff. He thinks Fiziev is the better striker and will land counters, but Gaethje could take over late if he pressures. He predicts Fiziev by KO, similar to his first fight prediction. He notes the line has moved from -250 to -155, indicating market correction.

Angelo picks Justin Gaethje, citing his power and wrestling as the edge. He notes Max Holloway has volume and speed, and the five rounds help Max, but Gaethje's power and wrestling give him a slight advantage. He calls the -200 odds too wide and advises against parlaying Gaethje.

Cody believes Max Holloway is a legendary fighter but is undersized at lightweight. He points out that when Holloway jumps up, he lands volume but the bigger opponents land the more damaging shots, as seen in the Dustin Poirier fights. Gaethje is the bigger, stronger man with power and leg kicks. Cody notes Gaethje's durability and that he's been fighting the best of his career recently. He expects Gaethje to attack the leg and land the bigger hooks, and thinks Holloway will have to outpoint him for 25 minutes, which is unlikely. Cody predicts Gaethje gets the job done, likely by decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Max Holloway to win the BMF title, citing his superior cardio, five-round experience, and ability to make adjustments on the fly. He believes Holloway's volume and durability will overwhelm Gaethje in the later rounds, and notes Holloway's improved grappling as a potential factor. He is concerned about Gaethje's leg kicks but trusts Holloway's chin and recovery.

Daniel Vreeland picks Justin Gaethje, citing Gaethje's size, power, and recent form. He notes that Holloway's move up to lightweight didn't go well before, and that Gaethje hits much harder. He also mentions that Gaethje is fighting smarter now, which plays into his advantage.

Jeff Fox picks Justin Gaethje, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Holloway's path to victory is narrow, relying on volume and pressure, but Gaethje matches that. He mentions that Gaethje's punches are much harder and that he will steal rounds with power shots. He also notes that Gaethje is fighting safer now, which helps him.

Lucrative James discusses the fight as a banger but does not make a pick. He mentions that many people think it will go the same way as Holloway's last loss at 155 to Dustin Poirier, but he is not sure. He says he will have a separate analysis video coming soon. He also notes he is looking at the odds as a gambler but does not reveal a side.

Holloway's ability to go into deep waters and turn on the pressure will allow him to pull away. Gaethje has lost in championship fights in the third or fourth rounds when opponents put pressure and output on him. Holloway will overwhelm him with a barrage of shots, similar to Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez, and get a stoppage in rounds 3-5.

Paul has never liked Max Holloway at lightweight, citing his size disadvantage. He notes that Gaethje will attack the legs heavily and that Holloway has never faced a leg kicker like Gaethje. Paul mentions Holloway's volume is unmatched but his opponents land the stiffer, more damaging shots, which judges favor. He references the Dustin Poirier fights where Holloway outlanded Poirier but lost because Poirier's shots were harder. Paul sees Gaethje as the rightful favorite and expects him to win, likely by decision.

Angelo picks Dustin Poirier, expecting a similar fight to their first meeting but without a finish. He believes Poirier's technical striking and fight IQ will outpoint Gaethje over five rounds. He notes that both have evolved at the same pace, but if Gaethje uses wrestling, it could change things. He is excited for the fight but not betting on it.

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by late third-round finish. He references the first fight where Poirier landed 142 head strikes and broke Gaethje in the fourth round. He trusts Poirier's durability (only two KO losses in 36 fights) and volume, and expects damage to accumulate. However, he is not confident, acknowledging Gaethje's improvements and power. He calls it a toss-up but leans Poirier.

Cody picks Poirier based on the first fight where Poirier adjusted after leg kicks and knocked Gaethje out. He notes Poirier's training partners at ATT (Chris Duncan, Grant Dawson) have had career-best performances recently, suggesting good camp. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and durability but believes Poirier's boxing and ability to weather the storm give him the edge. He does not plan to bet pre-fight.

James picks Poirier, trusting his boxing accuracy, durability in wars, and ability to adjust to leg kicks. He notes Gaethje has improved technically but still gets hit and has been finished in wars before. He expects a war that goes into championship rounds, with Poirier's dog and cardio giving him the edge.

Poirier's precision striking and combinations will hurt Gaethje eventually and put him away. The fight doesn't go to decision is the spot I lean into most. Poirier by knockout, probably in the fourth or fifth round. Gaethje's leg kicks were effective in the first fight but Poirier's hands will find the big shot again.

Angelo is confident in Fiziev because he is the most technical striker in the division and Gaethje struggles with technical strikers. He notes Fiziev has phenomenal takedown defense and has defended takedowns from elite grapplers. He thinks Gaethje's power is always a threat but Fiziev should outclass him on the feet.

Big Brady picks Fiziev, citing his technical striking and youth. He questions Gaethje's durability due to accumulated damage and notes Gaethje looked tired in the Oliveira fight. He believes Fiziev can knock Gaethje out, predicting a second-round KO. He expects a war but trusts Fiziev's cardio and skills.

Cody picks Fiziev, citing Gaethje's accumulated damage and declining durability. He notes Gaethje's reckless style leaves him open to counters, and Fiziev's technical striking and ability to intercept shots will be key. He mentions Gaethje's wrestling is an option but he chooses not to use it. He doesn't love the moneyline but sees Fiziev as the cleaner striker. He has no strong prop lean but says the pick is Fiziev.

Connor picks Fiziev because Gaethje has become a back-foot counter puncher who no longer pressures. He notes that Gaethje's new approach makes him vulnerable to fighters who can draw out his counters and come back with combinations, as Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier did. Fiziev is a fast, technical striker with good body work and defensive responsibility. Connor thinks Fiziev's ability to slip and counter will be key, and that Gaethje's lack of subtle adjustments will hurt him. He also notes that Fiziev's kicking game and creativity will give Gaethje trouble.

Jacob is a big fan of Fiziev and thinks he is the best striker in the UFC regardless of weight class. He notes Fiziev knocked out his former striking coach Brad Riddell. He thinks Fiziev will expose Gaethje's striking as high school level with precise counters. He expects a dominant win.

Fiziev is a technical Muay Thai striker with good defense and cardio, while Gaethje is a brawler who may be slowing down at 34. Fiziev's technical advantage should allow him to counter Gaethje's wild hooks and leg kicks, leading to a knockout. Gaethje's durability is a concern, and Fiziev is the younger, hungrier fighter.

Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, picking Fiziev as the better striker. He notes Fiziev's takedown defense was impressive against dos Anjos, and Gaethje is unlikely to wrestle. He acknowledges Gaethje's power and volume make him live, but thinks Fiziev's technical edge wins out. He says minus 225 is about right and he won't bet it, but Fiziev is the pick.

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev to win by TKO, calling it a terrible matchup for Gaethje. He notes Fiziev is a kickboxer who doesn't have to worry about takedowns, allowing him to focus on striking. Gaethje's weaknesses include leg kicks, body shots, and a high guard that leaves his body open. Fiziev has the best body shots in the division and will chop the legs, rip the body, and eventually land a body-head combo for a KO. He also mentions Gaethje's accumulated damage and recent KO loss as factors.

Angelo picks Justin Gaethje, believing his volume and chin will overwhelm Oliveira. He argues that Oliveira's submissions are off the table because Gaethje won't go to the ground, and that Gaethje's forward pressure will wear Oliveira down. He acknowledges Oliveira's technical striking but thinks Gaethje's style is a bad matchup for him.

Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to win by second-round submission. He believes Oliveira will weather Gaethje's early storm, pressure him against the cage, and drag the fight to the mat where Oliveira's elite BJJ will take over. He notes that Gaethje has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Khabib fight, and that Oliveira has improved his cardio and durability, surviving early adversity against Chandler and Poirier. Brady thinks the striking is competitive but that Oliveira has more paths to victory, while Gaethje's main path is a first-round knockout.

Cody leans towards Charles Oliveira but is hesitant due to the -165 price tag. He notes that Oliveira has been hurt in recent fights (by Chandler and Poirier) but has shown heart to come back. Cody believes Gaethje's wild, reckless style creates openings for Oliveira's takedowns and submissions. He points out Gaethje's takedown defense is only 77% and that Oliveira took down Tony Ferguson and Dustin Poirier easily. However, Cody is concerned about Gaethje's cardio and durability, and plans to hedge if he gets far into the parlay.

Daniel Levi picks Charles Oliveira but is very hesitant, acknowledging that he sees a different outcome every time these two fight. He notes Oliveira's offensive brilliance and improved mental fortitude, but worries about his defensive liabilities, especially against Gaethje's leg kicks and power. He says he leans with the favorite because Oliveira has more paths to victory, but he is not betting the fight himself. He respects the value on Gaethje at plus 150 odds and understands why anyone would take the dog.

The host picks Charles Oliveira to win, likely by submission in the second round. He highlights Oliveira's finishing ability and record 15 UFC submission wins. He expects Oliveira to check leg kicks, stun Gaethje, and take the fight to the ground. He prefers betting under 2.5 rounds at -150, noting that only one of Oliveira's last 16 fights went over 2.5. He acknowledges Gaethje's power and durability but believes Oliveira's adversity-fighting has improved. He is not betting Oliveira moneyline due to the line being too wide.

Paul picks Charles Oliveira, believing he will eventually find his spot and get a submission. He notes that Oliveira doesn't necessarily need a takedown, but if he gets it to the ground, his BJJ is unmatched. Paul prefers the under 2.5 rounds at -145, expecting either Gaethje to melt Oliveira early or Oliveira to grab a submission. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and toughness but trusts Oliveira's finishing ability.

Angelo picks Michael Chandler, but hesitantly. He believes Chandler's wrestling threat and power give him an edge, and that Gaethje's chin will eventually give out. He notes that Gaethje gets hit a lot and that Chandler can take him down. However, he worries about Chandler's chin and his tendency to brawl. He thinks if Chandler wrestles, he wins; if he stands and trades, it's dangerous.

Big Brady picks Justin Gaethje to win by second-round knockout. He notes Gaethje's better cardio and durability, while Chandler fades after the first round and has a questionable chin. Brady thinks Chandler will be live early with power and potential submissions, but if it gets past the first round, Gaethje will take over and knock him out. He expects a stand-up war with Gaethje finishing Chandler in the second.

Cody strongly favors Gaethje, citing his legendary durability and Chandler's history of fading and getting knocked out. He highlights Gaethje's leg kicks targeting Chandler's weak calves and believes Chandler needs a quick KO to win. He expects Gaethje to get the job done, likely by TKO.

Daniel Levi leans toward Justin Gaethje as a pure pick but considers the fight a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and durability, but notes that Chandler is explosive early and could knock Gaethje out. Levi mentions that Gaethje has been rocked in many fights and that Chandler's cardio is a concern if the fight extends. He says the opener was closer to -140, and at -225 he disagrees with the value, but picks Gaethje to win.

Jacob is extremely confident in Michael Chandler, calling him the lock of the week. He believes Chandler will use his wrestling to dominate Gaethje, who is useless on the ground. He notes that Gaethje's wins are overrated and that Chandler has a clear path via takedowns. He also mentions that Chandler is a Missouri wrestler who coaches wrestling. He has a parlay with Chandler and Colby Covington.

The host picks Gaethje by second-round TKO, citing his pace, leg kicks, and improving boxing. He expects Chandler's blitzing style to fade. He prefers the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -300/-350 as a safer play.

Paul leans Gaethje based on durability, believing Gaethje's chin and cardio are superior to Chandler's. He notes Chandler's history of slowing down and getting knocked out in later rounds. He suggests Gaethje inside the distance at -115, preferring the ITD prop over KO only.

Big Brady confidently picks Khabib Nurmagomedov, stating he has never picked against him and never will. He believes Khabib's relentless takedowns and pressure will drain Gaethje's cardio, and that Gaethje's wrestling background hasn't been tested against someone like Khabib. He predicts a fourth-round submission.

Daniel Levi acknowledges Gaethje's wrestling credentials and power, but ultimately leans with Khabib's consistent dominance and takedown machine style. He notes that Gaethje presents real threats with calf kicks and power, but Khabib's ability to set up takedowns with stand-up and his relentless pressure should prevail. He mentions that long-reigning champions sometimes lose when least expected, but he doesn't have the conviction to pick against Khabib.

The host picks Khabib Nurmagomedov confidently, citing his dominant wrestling, pressure, and ability to wear down opponents. He notes that Gaethje's leg kicks could be a factor but believes Khabib's grappling will be too much. He expects a fourth or fifth-round stoppage.

Big Brady picks Tony Ferguson, expecting him to break Gaethje over time by wearing him down. He notes Gaethje's tendency to tire and get hit, and Ferguson's never been finished by strikes. He predicts a knockout in the third or fourth round. However, he criticizes the line at minus 185 as too wide, suggesting it should be closer to a pick'em, and sees value on Gaethje.

Daniel Levi picks Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's insane pace, unorthodox footwork, and front kicks to the gut. He believes Ferguson will drown Gaethje in the later rounds, though he acknowledges Gaethje's power and cardio. Levi notes that Ferguson's chin tends to lift when teeing off, which could be dangerous against Gaethje, but he trusts Ferguson's ability to avoid a concussive blow and take over.