UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje

Big Brady confidently picks Khabib Nurmagomedov, stating he has never picked against him and never will. He believes Khabib's relentless takedowns and pressure will drain Gaethje's cardio, and that Gaethje's wrestling background hasn't been tested against someone like Khabib. He predicts a fourth-round submission.

Daniel Levi acknowledges Gaethje's wrestling credentials and power, but ultimately leans with Khabib's consistent dominance and takedown machine style. He notes that Gaethje presents real threats with calf kicks and power, but Khabib's ability to set up takedowns with stand-up and his relentless pressure should prevail. He mentions that long-reigning champions sometimes lose when least expected, but he doesn't have the conviction to pick against Khabib.

The host picks Khabib Nurmagomedov confidently, citing his dominant wrestling, pressure, and ability to wear down opponents. He notes that Gaethje's leg kicks could be a factor but believes Khabib's grappling will be too much. He expects a fourth or fifth-round stoppage.

The MMA Guru picks Khabib Nurmagomedov to win by submission (rear-naked choke) in the first round. He notes that Gaethje's new style with more footwork will back him into the cage, and that Gaethje hates wrestling and hasn't used it in fights. He believes Gaethje will get back up a few times but eventually be taken down and submitted due to Khabib's superior grappling and Gaethje's lack of high-level ground experience.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Robert Whittaker, acknowledging he is the better fighter overall but concerned about his chin and durability. He notes Whittaker's higher output and potential takedowns, but fears Cannonier's power. He predicts a decision win for Whittaker if he stays out of trouble.

Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier, citing his devastating power and calf kicks that could slow Whittaker's movement. He notes that Whittaker fights with his hands down and has been dropped in his last three fights, making him vulnerable to Cannonier's power. Levi acknowledges Whittaker's path to a decision but believes Cannonier's power and durability give him the edge, especially if he can land early or chop down the legs.

The host picks Robert Whittaker, citing his superior skill set, movement, and volume. He acknowledges Cannonier's power but believes Whittaker can evade the big shots and win a decision. He notes that Whittaker's durability is a concern but expects him to outpoint Cannonier.

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He notes that Whittaker's oblique kicks will annoy Cannonier, who has been out for a long time (since 2019) and had pectoral surgery. He believes Whittaker's in-and-out style and defensive awareness will outpoint Cannonier, though he initially considered a TKO before settling on a decision.

Big Brady is confident in Alexander Volkov, citing his technical striking, range management, and high output. He notes Harris is dangerous early but has low output and suspect cardio. He predicts a third-round knockout, but acknowledges Harris could win with an early KO.

Daniel Levi picks Volkov as a pure pick, citing his disciplined point-fighting style and height/reach advantage. He notes that Volkov should keep the fight on the outside and win a decision, but he is concerned about Volkov coming in 18 pounds heavier than his last fight (265 lbs), which could affect his movement. He also mentions that as a fan he hopes Harris wins, but stylistically Volkov is the safer pick.

The host picks Alexander Volkov confidently, citing his reach, volume, and cardio advantage. He notes that Walt Harris is a one-round fighter with poor takedown defense and that Volkov will pick him apart from distance. He expects a third-round stoppage.

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by late second or third round TKO. He notes that Volkov is more experienced (31-8 vs 13-8), has good takedown defense (shown against Curtis Blaydes), and will use front kicks to gas out Harris. He compares Harris unfavorably to Derrick Lewis, who struggled to land on Volkov for most of their fight.

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes, citing his power and finishing ability (75% of wins by KO). He notes Malkoun's lack of experience (4-0) and that Hawes has faced better competition. He predicts a first-round knockout, but advises staying away from betting at -260.

Daniel Levi slightly leans with Phil Hawes based on experience and athleticism, noting that Hawes has paid his dues with tough fights against Luis Taylor and Julian Marquez. He questions Malkoun's level of competition, as he is only 4-0 against subpar opponents. Levi thinks it might be a dog-or-pass situation at the betting window, but as a pure pick he goes with Hawes.

The host picks Phil Hawes but with low confidence, citing his athleticism and power. He notes that Hawes has cardio and durability concerns, while Malkoun is inexperienced. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds if the line is favorable.

Big Brady picks Lauren Murphy but is hesitant due to the unpredictability of women's MMA. He notes Murphy's experience against better competition and good takedown defense, but acknowledges Shakirova looks decent on tape. He predicts a decision win.

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy confidently, noting her transformation under a new doctor and her recent knockout wins. He believes Shakirova is a talented newcomer but is outclassed and outsized, and that Murphy's pressure and clinch work will be too much. He expects a unanimous decision or a TKO stoppage.

The host picks Lauren Murphy but is not confident, citing her experience, volume, and physicality. He notes that Shakirova is making her UFC debut on short notice and may struggle with the step up in competition. He sees value on Shakirova if she is a big dog.

The MMA Guru picks Lauren Murphy to win, noting that Shakirova is taking the fight on short notice and has lost to a fighter with a 4-4 record. He respects Murphy's technical fighting style and believes she will get the job done.

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting he is the more technical fighter and has good wrestling. He expects Cuțelaba to be dangerous in the first round but fade, and predicts a third-round knockout. He is not worried about Cuțelaba's submission threat.

Daniel Levi picks Ankalaev, citing his improvements and training at Extreme Couture with coach Eric Nixick. He notes that Cuțelaba is a first-round-or-bust fighter, and if Ankalaev survives the initial storm, he will take over with head kicks and combinations. He blames Cuțelaba for the poor stoppage in the first fight and believes Ankalaev is the more well-rounded fighter.

The host picks Magomed Ankalaev confidently, noting his superior striking, discipline, and ability to fight at range. He believes Cuțelaba's aggressive style will play into Ankalaev's hands and that Ankalaev will finish him in the third round.

The MMA Guru picks Ion Cuțelaba to win by first-round TKO as an underdog. He argues that Cuțelaba landed the cleanest shots in their first fight (which ended in a no-contest) and that Ankalaev is overrated, citing his lackluster performance against Paul Craig. He believes Cuțelaba will come out aggressive and catch Ankalaev early.

Big Brady leans towards Tai Tuivasa, citing Struve's poor chin and tendency to back up against the cage. He notes Tuivasa's power and leg kicks, but is concerned about Tuivasa's cardio and takedown defense. He predicts a first-round knockout, but is not comfortable betting it heavily.

Daniel Levi picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, citing his training at AKA and improved discipline. He notes that Struve rarely shoots takedowns (0.6 per 15 minutes) and often pulls guard, while Tuivasa will back him up with leg kicks and a big left hook. He warns Tuivasa not to do anything stupid and expects a knockout.

The host picks Stefan Struve, citing his jiu-jitsu advantage and Tuivasa's poor takedown defense. He notes that Struve's striking has improved and that Tuivasa is hittable. However, he only bets Struve if he is a dog, as he sees the fight as a coin flip.

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round KO. He notes that Struve has been KO'd many times and has a weak chin, while Tuivasa has power and has moved to AKA to improve his game. He expects Tuivasa to land one shot and finish Struve early.

Big Brady leans towards Casey Kenney, acknowledging the fight is close and the line (-200) may be too wide. He highlights Kenney's wrestling advantage and ability to get the fight to the mat, where he has a good submission game. However, he notes Wood's high striking volume and Kenney's recent quick turnaround, making him hesitant.

Daniel Levi picks Casey Kenney, citing his harder hitting, wrestling background, and durability. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood's point-fighting style and grappling but questions Wood's chin, noting all four of his losses are stoppages. Levi thinks Kenney will land harder shots and secure takedowns at the end of rounds to slightly outpoint Wood.

The host picks Casey Kenney, emphasizing his superior wrestling, cardio, and fight IQ. He believes Kenney will implement a grappling-heavy game plan to neutralize Wood's striking. He notes that Wood has defensive flaws and has been finished before.

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood to win by first-round TKO as an underdog. He argues that Wood is more technical than Kenney's previous opponent, has KO power, and dominated Andre Ewell. He believes Kenney is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite and will be overaggressive, leaving himself open.

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.

Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.

The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.

Big Brady is confident in Da Woon Jung, citing his high output (6.59 significant strikes per minute) compared to Alvey's low volume. He notes Jung's good chin and cardio, and struggles to see a path to victory for Alvey. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

Daniel Levi picks Da Woon Jung, citing his durability, discipline, and jab. He notes that Alvey is on the decline and has been figured out, with his only recent knockout being against a low-level opponent. Levi believes Jung will stay technical, pick Alvey apart with the jab, and avoid the counter right hook, likely winning by early knockout.

The host leans toward Da Woon Jung, noting that Jung is younger, more aggressive, and has better output. He questions Sam Alvey's durability and recent form, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline at -370. He suggests Jung by knockout as a prop.

The MMA Guru picks Da Woon Jung to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Jung is more technical and controlled than Ryan Spann (who struggled with Alvey), sets up shots with feints, and is coming off a KO win over Mike Rodriguez. He criticizes Alvey for losing too many times and being 34 years old.

Big Brady is confident in Miranda Maverick, citing her superior grappling and wrestling compared to Jojua's previous opponent. He notes Maverick's active guard and ability to sweep, and expects her to dominate on the ground. He predicts a third-round submission, as Jojua has been finished before.

Daniel Levi picks Miranda Maverick, stating she is better across the board and a hyped prospect. He notes that Jojua is an armbar specialist, but as long as Maverick avoids the armbar, she will win. He mentions that the line opened at -140 and has moved significantly, indicating Vegas may be on to something.

The host picks Miranda Maverick, citing her youth, fight-to-fight improvements, and strong grappling. He notes that Jojua has poor takedown defense and was outmuscled at higher weight classes, but acknowledges that Jojua has value as a dog due to experience on Fight Island and underrated jiu-jitsu.

The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He notes that Maverick is bigger, stronger, more athletic, and has KO power and grappling skills. He criticizes Jojua for losing to Sarah Moras (5-5) and believes Maverick's preparation (knowing her debut for a long time) gives her an edge.

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez, citing his youth (27) and improvements shown in his last fight against Joe Duffy. He notes Alvarez's strong submission game (88% of wins by submission) and Yakovlev's history of being submitted four times. He predicts a first-round submission, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

Daniel Levi picks Joel Alvarez, comparing him to a young Chito Vera and noting his opportunistic finishing ability. He acknowledges Yakovlev's wrestling edge and experience but points out the 10-year age advantage and Alvarez's upward trajectory. He expects Alvarez to finish Yakovlev somewhere along the way, possibly by submission or TKO.

The host picks Joel Alvarez but is not confident, noting that Alvarez is younger and improving, while Yakovlev is older and on the decline. He mentions that Alvarez should have the advantage on the feet but the fight could hinge on scrambles. He ultimately leans Alvarez but says the value is on Yakovlev as a dog.

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez to win by submission in the first or second round. He notes that Alvarez is younger (26), bigger, rangier, and has a reach advantage over Yakovlev, who is 36 and past his prime. He also highlights that Yakovlev has been submitted multiple times in his career and that Alvarez is coming off a big win over Joe Duffy as an underdog.