Casey Kenney

5-3
Record
Age / DOB 35
(Mar 20, 1991)
Height 5' 7"
Weight 135 lbs.
Reach 68.0"
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages
4.85 Sig. Strikes / Min
42.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
4.67 Absorbed / Min
58.0% Strike Defense
1.09 TD Avg / 15 min
35.0% TD Accuracy
61.0% TD Defense
0.4 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (5)
KO/TKO 0
Submission 1
Decision 4
Loss Methods (3)
KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 3

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Song Yadong 0 116 of 257 45% 121 of 263 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey Kenney 0 78 of 190 41% 85 of 199 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Song Yadong 0 31 of 68 45% 31 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Casey Kenney 0 19 of 57 33% 19 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Song Yadong 0 34 of 78 43% 38 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Casey Kenney 0 28 of 60 46% 32 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
3 Song Yadong 0 51 of 111 45% 52 of 113 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 31 of 73 42% 34 of 77 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Song Yadong 116 of 257 45% 66 of 197 34 of 44 16 of 16 110 of 249 6 of 8 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 78 of 190 41% 45 of 140 20 of 31 13 of 19 77 of 188 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Song Yadong 31 of 68 45% 18 of 54 5 of 6 8 of 8 28 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 19 of 57 33% 8 of 40 9 of 13 2 of 4 18 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Song Yadong 34 of 78 43% 19 of 60 9 of 12 6 of 6 34 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 28 of 60 46% 17 of 45 4 of 7 7 of 8 28 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Song Yadong 51 of 111 45% 29 of 83 20 of 26 2 of 2 48 of 106 3 of 5 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 31 of 73 42% 20 of 55 7 of 11 4 of 7 31 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Casey Kenney vs. Yadong Song

Round 1
To kick off the main card, bantamweights throw down when Tachi Palace Fights staple Kenney (16-3-1, 5-2 UFC) meets China’s Song (16-5-1, 1 NC; 5-1-1 UFC). Even though Kenney (30) comes in seven years older than his opponent, he actually started his pro career a year after Song (23) did. Referee Dan Miragliotta was not aware of that age discrepancy, but he pays it no mind when the two touch gloves and prepare to fight. Song advances, and Kenney is there to kick him in the body. Song gives him one right back, and Kenney measures him with a few front kicks as “USA” chants already rain down to support Kenney. Song thumps Kenney with a couple solid right hands, and Kenney retreats and gathers himself. Kenney lands with a right hand behind the ear that makes Song stumble, but the Chinese fighter shakes it off and is ready to fire back. Kenney walks forward and slings a left hand, and Song replies in kind. Both men land heavy body kicks, and Kenney marches on to keep attacking. The American ducks back in time to avoid a quick combination, and he gets kicked in the leg. Kenney sticks his tongue out at him and comes out firing, and the two men exchange and connect on one another. A right hand counter from Kenney surprises Song, who measures another stiff leg kick as Kenney plods forward. Both men are marked up to the body after landing shots, and Kenney walks into another kick to the body. Song gets off a right hand that marks up the nose, and Kenney tries to pounce and even goes for a spinning wheel kick, but Song sees it coming and dances out of the way. Kenney goes up high with a kick, and Song dodges and weaves before slamming his shin into Kenney’s leg. A head kick from Song is blocked, and he bullies Song to the ground. The “Kung Fu Monkey” gets to his knees and finds himself in guillotine choke danger, but he stays patient and pops his head out. Song manages to wriggle himself back up to his feet, and Kenney chases him down and keeps throwing hands. Both men trade punches, with Song headhunting while Kenney goes to the body, and the two clap hands as the first round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kenney

Round 2
Kenney runs out of his corner and touches gloves, and he is quick to throw his foot up at Song’s face. Kenney takes a kick to the body as he advances, and he winds up on a huge right hand that Song narrowly dodges. Kenney chops at his foe’s leg, and Song loads up on a few punches to the body. Kenney counters, and the two separate, trading successive blows one after the other. Song kicks the body, Kenney kicks the leg, and Kenney walks through it to land a looping left hand. A fighter is warned for outstretched fingers, and Kenney goes right back to targeting the head and body of his opponent. Song is forced to fight off his back foot, and as he retreats, Kenney lands a few strikes high and low. Kenney fakes an ankle pick and absorbs a few shots to the body, and the American lands a leg kick followed by a right hand. Song has a trio of punches blocked, and when he comes in, Kenney eats one on the chin and fires right back. A loud, slapping kick from Song echoes through the arena, but Kenney pays it no mind as he careens off his leg. Song floats up a few body kicks as Kenney pushes the pace on him, and like a bantamweight Terminator, Kenney shows no reaction any time he is struck and keeps moving forward. Kenney looks to the take the fight down, and Song blocks it but eats a left hand over the top. When Kenney advances, Song is able to time strikes to his body and legs, but he lands with his hands as Song tries to skirt out of the way. Kenney comes up short on an uppercut as he walks his opponent down, while Song picks at him with kicks. Kenney returns fire after kicks land with low kicks, and he stings Song with a solid right hand. Song bites down on his mouthpiece and lets Kenney have it, scoring a left hand and one to the body. Kenney grits through it and tags his foe right back with a left, forcing Song to shoot in and try for a takedown. The American turns him around, where he clings to him against the fence until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kenney
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 3
Scorecards will likely be understandably close going into this last round, with the volume of Song against the power and forward movement of Kenney. Din Thomas giggles as he says the Chinese fighter’s name, and the fight resumes practically where the last round ended, with quick exchanges from both fighters. Kenney ignores kicks to score a right hand that shakes Song up, and he scores a body kick to prompt Song to throw back at him. Song lands a few punches and a kick as Kenney advances, and he sits down on a right hand and it splits the guard. Kenney backs off as Song picks up volume, landing jabs and kicks as Kenney tries to give him one back every time. Song scores a right hand on the chin, and Kenney times a sharp body kick as Song ducks down. Kenney clips Song with a head kick where the knee may have bounced off Song’s head, and Song smiles keeps going strong. A one-two and a body kick from Song surprise his opponent, who whiffs as Song chains another punch combination to the body. Kenney lands a few punches at range, with a left hand that sends Song back a step. Song comes right back, and he scores a few strikes before he is forced to defend a takedown in the center of the cage. The Chinese fighter stands him up and holds his hands out to tell him to brawl with him, and Kenney steps in with a left hand as Song jabs at him. Kenney kicks and falls over while trying to recover from it, and Song is there before him scoring to the body. Kenney again shoots for a takedown, and Song sprawls and lands flush. Kenney is forced to shell up as Song strides forward, landing big punches as Kenney tries to wind up on bombs. Song meets every Kenney punch with two of his own, connecting to the body and head as Kenney wings shots. When Song puts together a combination, Kenney shoots in for a takedown and finally hits it – but he last less than 10 seconds to spare. In top position, Kenney drops down a few elbows, and time expires to conclude this close matchup. The scorecards could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Kenney)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Kenney)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song (29-28 Song)

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Casey Kenney via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Casey Kenney

Angelo picks Kenney, citing his forward pressure, volume, leg kicks, and grappling. He believes Kenney will back Yadong up and mix in takedowns, similar to how Yadong lost to Kyler Phillips. He notes Yadong has better technical striking but struggles when backing up. He also mentions he has a moneyline bet on Kenney.

Moneyline bet on Casey Kenney; also mentions Yadong over 2.5 rounds as a prop
"Casey Kenney wins that fight... because of volume and grappling... he comes forward, lots and lots of volume, mixes in leg kicks, and grapples."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Kenney's volume and Yadong's power. He thinks Kenney's ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference, as Yadong has 56% takedown defense. He predicts a close decision win for Kenney, but acknowledges the judges could go either way.

"I will take Casey Kenny though to mix it up and win a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Cody picks Kenney, citing his superior volume and cardio. He notes that Song Yadong tends to fade in later rounds, while Kenney is a slow starter who pushes the pace. Cody expects Kenney to lose the first round but win the next two, making him a good live betting option.

Kenney by decision +150
"i think that your best bet is to take kini after the first round i think he's probably going to drop this first round to seong dong"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong, believing he has more ways to win including a potential knockout early or late. He notes that Casey Kenney tends to fade in later rounds and has been taken down multiple times, while Song has power and improving cardio. He acknowledges the fight is close but leans Song because of his finishing ability and the fact that Kenney is undersized for bantamweight.

"I'm gonna pick him to win this fight man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Kenney has a grappling advantage and better cardio. He is one of the best scramblers in the UFC and should mix striking with takedowns. Yadong is a power puncher but has shown limited progression and will struggle with Kenney's footwork and level changes. Kenney should grind out a decision, possibly winning the later rounds decisively.

Kenney by decision
"I like kenny in the spot and uh yeah I'm probably going to take a shot on him here I like the odds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a volume play. He thinks Kenney's pressure and output will be key, and that losing round one is possible if Kenney doesn't secure an early takedown. He doesn't add much new analysis.

"i think it's just like a volume play but uh yeah losing round one could is very much in the cards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

The MMA Guru picks Casey Kenney over Song Yadong. He praises Kenney's cardio, output, and grappling advantage (black belt in judo). He believes Kenney's pace and body work will be too much for Yadong, and predicts a unanimous decision win. He notes Yadong's win over Marlon Vera was controversial.

"i'm gonna go with casey kenny by unanimous decision over song yudong"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Cruz 0 89 of 202 44% 115 of 229 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:07
Casey Kenney 0 74 of 193 38% 74 of 193 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Cruz 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
2 Dominick Cruz 0 36 of 82 43% 36 of 82 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 33 of 73 45% 33 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Dominick Cruz 0 27 of 64 42% 53 of 91 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:07
Casey Kenney 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Cruz 89 of 202 44% 51 of 151 24 of 35 14 of 16 85 of 197 4 of 4 0 of 1
Casey Kenney 74 of 193 38% 41 of 148 10 of 19 23 of 26 72 of 191 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Cruz 26 of 56 46% 10 of 29 7 of 16 9 of 11 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 23 of 63 36% 9 of 46 6 of 7 8 of 10 22 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Dominick Cruz 36 of 82 43% 24 of 70 8 of 8 4 of 4 36 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 33 of 73 45% 21 of 55 1 of 6 11 of 12 33 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dominick Cruz 27 of 64 42% 17 of 52 9 of 11 1 of 1 23 of 59 4 of 4 0 of 1
Casey Kenney 18 of 57 31% 11 of 47 3 of 6 4 of 4 17 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog, citing Cruz's wrestling advantage and Kenney's 56% takedown defense. He notes Cruz has not won since 2016 but faced elite competition, while Kenney has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but admits he doesn't feel great about it.

"i'm gonna side with the dog of dominick cruz here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Casey Kenney

Daniel leans with Casey Kenney, citing Kenney's leg kicks from southpaw to slow Cruz's movement and his wrestling to keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Cruz's in-fight adjustments but believes Kenney's youth and style will edge a decision.

"i'm slightly leaning with casey kenny though man my gut just tells me that he... stylistically speaking his wrestling is good enough to keep it standing and he's got the kicks to slow down that movement of dominic cruz"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

Cruz's footwork and experience could trouble Kenney, who may struggle to land his body kicks. The host notes Cruz's durability and wrestling background, but is not confident enough to bet. He predicts Cruz wins by decision.

"i got dominique cruzier to win this fight for your decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Dominick Cruz

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz as an underdog. He argues Cruz had a full camp and hand-picked Kenney, and that people judge him unfairly based on the short-notice Cejudo fight. He believes Cruz's footwork, size, and experience will lead to a 30-27 unanimous decision, and that Cruz can even get takedowns.

"i'm going with dominick cruz man i am over casey kenny this is another underdog that i'm picking on the card"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey Kenney 0 136 of 321 42% 138 of 325 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Nathaniel Wood 0 123 of 247 49% 125 of 249 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey Kenney 0 51 of 120 42% 51 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nathaniel Wood 0 54 of 96 56% 54 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Casey Kenney 0 48 of 113 42% 48 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nathaniel Wood 0 40 of 90 44% 40 of 90 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
3 Casey Kenney 0 37 of 88 42% 39 of 92 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Nathaniel Wood 0 29 of 61 47% 31 of 63 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey Kenney 136 of 321 42% 70 of 237 9 of 22 57 of 62 134 of 318 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 123 of 247 49% 74 of 189 25 of 32 24 of 26 118 of 241 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey Kenney 51 of 120 42% 22 of 83 6 of 12 23 of 25 51 of 120 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 54 of 96 56% 29 of 68 13 of 15 12 of 13 53 of 95 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Casey Kenney 48 of 113 42% 26 of 86 0 of 4 22 of 23 48 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 40 of 90 44% 26 of 71 5 of 9 9 of 10 39 of 89 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Casey Kenney 37 of 88 42% 22 of 68 3 of 6 12 of 14 35 of 85 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 29 of 61 47% 19 of 50 7 of 8 3 of 3 26 of 57 2 of 3 1 of 1
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Big Brady leans towards Casey Kenney, acknowledging the fight is close and the line (-200) may be too wide. He highlights Kenney's wrestling advantage and ability to get the fight to the mat, where he has a good submission game. However, he notes Wood's high striking volume and Kenney's recent quick turnaround, making him hesitant.

decision
"i'm going to lean kenny here and i'm going to pick kenny"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Casey Kenney

Daniel Levi picks Casey Kenney, citing his harder hitting, wrestling background, and durability. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood's point-fighting style and grappling but questions Wood's chin, noting all four of his losses are stoppages. Levi thinks Kenney will land harder shots and secure takedowns at the end of rounds to slightly outpoint Wood.

Dog or pass at the betting window; understands people taking a shot on Wood at +150
"i'm gonna lean with casey kenny i think he lands the harder shots i think he might secure a takedown or two at the end of rounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

The host picks Casey Kenney, emphasizing his superior wrestling, cardio, and fight IQ. He believes Kenney will implement a grappling-heavy game plan to neutralize Wood's striking. He notes that Wood has defensive flaws and has been finished before.

Kenney by decision
"i truly think that we're going to see a casey kenny decision here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood to win by first-round TKO as an underdog. He argues that Wood is more technical than Kenney's previous opponent, has KO power, and dominated Andre Ewell. He believes Kenney is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite and will be overaggressive, leaving himself open.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nathaniel wood getting the upset on casey kenny"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey Kenney 0 109 of 263 41% 109 of 263 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 46 of 171 26% 46 of 171 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey Kenney 0 40 of 94 42% 40 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 19 of 64 29% 19 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Casey Kenney 0 29 of 79 36% 29 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 14 of 52 26% 14 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Casey Kenney 0 40 of 90 44% 40 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alateng Heili 0 13 of 55 23% 13 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey Kenney 109 of 263 41% 57 of 192 41 of 58 11 of 13 109 of 261 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 46 of 171 26% 26 of 140 11 of 20 9 of 11 46 of 171 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey Kenney 40 of 94 42% 21 of 69 15 of 19 4 of 6 40 of 94 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 19 of 64 29% 9 of 53 5 of 6 5 of 5 19 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Casey Kenney 29 of 79 36% 11 of 58 15 of 18 3 of 3 29 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 14 of 52 26% 9 of 43 2 of 4 3 of 5 14 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Casey Kenney 40 of 90 44% 25 of 65 11 of 21 4 of 4 40 of 88 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alateng Heili 13 of 55 23% 8 of 44 4 of 10 1 of 1 13 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by decision. He highlights Kenney's superior striking volume and takedown defense, noting that Heili is low volume and gets outlanded. He thinks Kenney is better everywhere and that Heili's only chance is a knockout.

"give me casey kenny to win i'm gonna take it safe and say by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Daniel confidently picks Kenney, praising his fight IQ and level of competition. He expects Kenney to use kicks to avoid Heili's right hand, mix in takedowns, and dominate on top. He notes Heili's toughness and power but believes Kenney is on a different level and will out-tough him.

"i think casey is going to come out here throwing more kicks then he's going to mix in the takedowns and when he gets on top of hailey ala tank that's when i feel like he's going to really take over the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

The host is extremely confident in Casey Kenney, citing his superior grappling, scrambles, and experience against high-level grapplers like Manny Bermudez and Brandon Royval. He believes Alateng Heili's wrestling credentials won't translate to MMA grappling and that Kenney will dominate on the ground. He placed a 5-unit bet at -281, calling it his lock of the night.

Parlay suggestion with Jordan Williams or Dusko Todorovic
"I've already pulled the trigger on casey kenny here... he is my locker than i play there's no doubt about it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

The Guru picks Casey Kenney, citing his quality wins over Manny Bermudez, Ray Borg, and Louis Smolka, and noting that Alateng's close fight with Ryan Benoit was unimpressive. He acknowledges Kenney is a heavy favorite at 1-3 odds but still picks him, predicting a submission in the first or second round.

Odds: 1-3 (implied -300); prediction: submission round 1-2
"i'm definitely going to be picking casey kenny and to be honest he went to a decision with mourab yeah he got ragdolled but you know he was getting back up"
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:03
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey Kenney 0 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Louis Smolka 0 32 of 52 61% 32 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey Kenney 0 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Louis Smolka 0 32 of 52 61% 32 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey Kenney 18 of 43 41% 4 of 16 14 of 27 0 of 0 16 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
Louis Smolka 32 of 52 61% 15 of 34 5 of 6 12 of 12 31 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey Kenney 18 of 43 41% 4 of 16 14 of 27 0 of 0 16 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
Louis Smolka 32 of 52 61% 15 of 34 5 of 6 12 of 12 31 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by dominant decision. He believes Kenney is better everywhere and can take Smolka down at will. He thinks Kenney's BJJ is too good for Smolka to submit him, and that Kenney will control the fight on the ground or on the feet. He expects a 30-27 or 30-26 decision.

"I like Kenny a lot in this fight I think he is better pretty much everywhere"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Casey Kenney

Daniel slightly leans with Kenney but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation at -270. He respects Kenney's well-rounded game and toughness, but notes that Smolka is durable and can scramble. He expects a close fight and advises against betting the favorite at those odds.

dog or pass situation
"i do lean with casey kenny the issue is that when the line's three to one that that that's when you start to get worried"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Casey Kenney

The MMA Guru picks Casey Kenney to win by unanimous decision. He admits he wasn't impressed by Kenney's last performance but believes he is a very good fighter. He thinks Kenney will be the smaller man but will outwork Louis Smolka, who has had a long career. He predicts a decision win.

Kenney by decision
"Casey Kenny is a very good fighter I think he's gonna beat Luis smoker he's gonna be the smaller man in there however Luis smoke has had a long career now I feel like it's time for Casey Kenny to get things going in his own career I think he's gonna go out there and get a unanimous decision win over Luis smoker"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–25, 29–28) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 45 of 118 38% 47 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Casey Kenney 0 63 of 181 34% 114 of 241 12 of 24 50% 0 0 5:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 22 of 52 42% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Casey Kenney 0 19 of 67 28% 43 of 92 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:11
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Casey Kenney 0 24 of 65 36% 33 of 75 4 of 11 36% 0 0 1:57
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 7 of 21 33% 7 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Casey Kenney 0 20 of 49 40% 38 of 74 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 45 of 118 38% 22 of 87 10 of 17 13 of 14 42 of 112 3 of 6 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 63 of 181 34% 30 of 137 14 of 23 19 of 21 43 of 156 7 of 8 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 22 of 52 42% 8 of 30 5 of 12 9 of 10 19 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 19 of 67 28% 7 of 46 4 of 12 8 of 9 14 of 60 3 of 4 2 of 3
2 Merab Dvalishvili 16 of 45 35% 8 of 37 4 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 24 of 65 36% 9 of 48 9 of 10 6 of 7 17 of 57 3 of 3 4 of 5
3 Merab Dvalishvili 7 of 21 33% 6 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey Kenney 20 of 49 40% 14 of 43 1 of 1 5 of 5 12 of 39 1 of 1 7 of 9
Expert Picks (1)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to edge out a close decision, but is not very confident. He notes Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and takedowns, but also his tendency to gas and become predictable. He acknowledges Kenney's underrated skills and ability to win fights he's not supposed to, making this a tough call.

close decision, fight of the night potential, value on Kenney at plus money
"I think my Rob's probably gonna edge out a decision but it's not a very confident pick"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey Kenney 0 37 of 59 62% 59 of 83 3 of 4 75% 0 1 6:10
Manny Bermudez 0 43 of 69 62% 56 of 85 2 of 2 100% 1 1 5:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey Kenney 0 11 of 14 78% 14 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:32
Manny Bermudez 0 18 of 28 64% 21 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:49
2 Casey Kenney 0 6 of 12 50% 7 of 13 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:22
Manny Bermudez 0 14 of 22 63% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:55
3 Casey Kenney 0 20 of 33 60% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:16
Manny Bermudez 0 11 of 19 57% 15 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey Kenney 37 of 59 62% 29 of 47 8 of 12 0 of 0 22 of 43 2 of 2 13 of 14
Manny Bermudez 43 of 69 62% 21 of 42 10 of 14 12 of 13 26 of 49 6 of 7 11 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey Kenney 11 of 14 78% 8 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 3
Manny Bermudez 18 of 28 64% 9 of 17 3 of 4 6 of 7 14 of 24 3 of 3 1 of 1
2 Casey Kenney 6 of 12 50% 5 of 8 1 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 14 of 22 63% 7 of 14 5 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 9 1 of 1 10 of 12
3 Casey Kenney 20 of 33 60% 16 of 28 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 21 1 of 1 10 of 11
Manny Bermudez 11 of 19 57% 5 of 11 2 of 4 4 of 4 9 of 16 2 of 3 0 of 0
Win
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey Kenney 0 17 of 35 48% 22 of 40 7 of 10 70% 0 1 6:30
Ray Borg 0 32 of 52 61% 46 of 68 2 of 3 66% 0 3 6:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey Kenney 0 2 of 4 50% 4 of 6 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:36
Ray Borg 0 10 of 15 66% 15 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:38
2 Casey Kenney 0 7 of 10 70% 8 of 11 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:36
Ray Borg 0 13 of 16 81% 17 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 2 1:54
3 Casey Kenney 0 8 of 21 38% 10 of 23 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:18
Ray Borg 0 9 of 21 42% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey Kenney 17 of 35 48% 8 of 23 8 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 14 13 of 19 2 of 2
Ray Borg 32 of 52 61% 9 of 27 19 of 20 4 of 5 9 of 23 19 of 25 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey Kenney 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1
Ray Borg 10 of 15 66% 3 of 6 5 of 6 2 of 3 3 of 8 4 of 4 3 of 3
2 Casey Kenney 7 of 10 70% 3 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 3 5 of 6 1 of 1
Ray Borg 13 of 16 81% 3 of 6 10 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 3 11 of 12 1 of 1
3 Casey Kenney 8 of 21 38% 5 of 17 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 9 7 of 12 0 of 0
Ray Borg 9 of 21 42% 3 of 15 4 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 12 4 of 9 0 of 0