UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana

Big Brady leans towards Irene Aldana to win by decision. He cites Aldana's higher output and youth, while Holm is older and slowing down. He thinks Holm will try to grind against the cage, but when at range, Aldana has the edge. He expects a close, boring fight.

Daniel picks Irene Aldana, citing her upward trajectory, higher output, and power. He notes that Holly Holm is slowing down and relies on stalling against the fence, but Aldana has the tools to win a decision by outworking her. He acknowledges Aldana's past close losses and chinny moments but believes she is the younger, hungrier fighter with more power on the feet.

The host picks Holly Holm to win by decision, emphasizing her veteran experience, strength, and ability to make fights ugly by clinching and using takedowns. He believes Aldana's power is a threat but that Holm's fight IQ and durability will carry her over five rounds.

The Guru picks Irene Aldana, praising her stand-up, pace, and improvement. He argues that Holm's recent wins are unimpressive and that Aldana's loss to Pennington was close. He believes Aldana will work the body and possibly get a second-round TKO, noting her training with Alexa Grasso and her ability to push a high pace.

Big Brady picks Yorgan De Castro to win, likely by knockout. He notes De Castro's hard leg kicks and power, while Felipe is hittable. However, he is concerned about De Castro's low volume and poor performance against Hardy, so he is not confident enough to parlay.

Daniel leans with De Castro, noting his powerful kicks and heavy hands, but is not confident because De Castro gassed after the first round against Greg Hardy. He calls it a dog or pass situation at the betting window due to the price and lack of proven cardio. He acknowledges Felipe's brawling style but sees De Castro's low kicks as a key weapon.

The host gives the technical advantage to De Castro, citing his leg kicks and striking polish. He expects De Castro to win by third-round TKO after wearing Felipe down. However, he finds the line too wide to bet either side confidently.

The Guru picks Yorgan De Castro, citing his good kicks and hand speed. He believes De Castro's loss to Greg Hardy was due to a broken foot and that he will land clean on Felipe's chin, predicting a first-round KO.

Big Brady leans towards Germaine de Randamie to win by decision. He notes the striking discrepancy favors de Randamie, and while Peña's path is takedowns, he thinks de Randamie can stop them. He is worried about cage control but expects the fight to stay on the feet.

Daniel picks de Randamie, emphasizing the massive striking gap and Peña's ugly stand-up. He believes de Randamie will clip Peña coming in and possibly knock her out, similar to the Aspen Ladd fight. He acknowledges concern if Peña gets on top but thinks de Randamie's takedown defense has improved and she will pull the trigger.

The host picks Peña as the underdog, believing her wrestling and trip takedowns will be effective against de Randamie's takedown defense. He notes that de Randamie has struggled against grapplers like Nunes and that Peña's style is similar. He predicts a decision win for Peña and thinks the line should be closer to -120.

The Guru picks Germaine de Randamie, believing she can survive on the ground and will keep the fight standing to beat Peña with leg kicks and eventually finish by TKO. He notes Peña couldn't submit Nico Montano and thinks de Randamie is too big and dangerous.

Big Brady confidently picks Kyler Phillips to win inside the distance. He states Phillips is better everywhere and Else is not UFC caliber. He expects a late first or early second round stoppage, as Else is dangerous only in the first round.

Daniel confidently picks Phillips, noting his evolution and impressive UFC debut. He criticizes Else's competition level, calling it bottom of the barrel, and sees Phillips as the more experienced fighter despite fewer pro fights. He expects Phillips to style on Else and win handily.

The host is confident in Kyler Phillips, expecting a first-round submission via rear-naked choke. He notes Phillips' superior skills and Else's low-level competition, and likes the under 1.5 rounds at +100.

The Guru picks Kyler Phillips, citing his great performance against Gabriel Silva and his contender series win. He criticizes Cameron Else's competition and believes Phillips will make a statement, predicting a first-round KO.

Big Brady leans towards Duško Todorović to win by grinding decision. He notes Todorović is hittable but can grind Townsend against the cage. He warns that if Todorović stands and bangs, Townsend's power could be a problem, but expects a boring decision.

Daniel picks Todorović, impressed by his knockout of Michel Pereira and his heart in the contender series fight. He notes Townsend's poor takedown defense and get-up game, and believes Todorović will outwork and outhustle him, possibly winning every round. He acknowledges Todorović's hands-down defense but sees him as a bright prospect.

The host picks Todorović to win by decision, citing his higher output and clinch control, but notes Townsend's durability and experience make him a live underdog. He mentions a small sprinkle on Townsend by third-round stoppage at +2800.

The Guru picks Duško Todorović, noting his undefeated record and quality opposition. He believes Townsend is on a losing streak and may miss weight, and predicts Todorović will be too quick and finish him in the first round by TKO.

Big Brady picks Court McGee to win by decision. He notes McGee's clear path to victory via takedowns, as Condit has poor takedown defense. He thinks Condit's only chance is a submission off his back, but McGee has never been submitted.

Daniel leans with Condit, reasoning that McGee's training camp was subpar (mainly drilling with his 13-year-old son) and that Condit has had moments of success against higher-level competition. He acknowledges Condit's five-fight losing streak but thinks this is a winnable fight, predicting a split decision. He notes that McGee's takedowns could be a factor but Condit might capitalize on submissions.

The host leans toward Court McGee due to Condit's poor takedown defense and McGee's durability, but he is not confident enough to bet at -135. He predicts a decision win for McGee but says he would only bet if McGee were plus money.

The Guru picks Carlos Condit, noting his good ground game and submission threats against Michael Chiesa. He believes Condit is naturally bigger and can push the pace, and predicts a submission by armbar in the second round or a decision. He sees nothing in McGee's game to suggest he can beat Condit.

Big Brady confidently picks Charles Jourdain to win by knockout. He highlights Jourdain's durability, power, and technical striking, while noting Culibao was dominated by Jalen Turner and is not UFC caliber. He sees Jourdain as better everywhere.

Daniel picks Jourdain, citing his higher level of competition and flashy striking style. He expects Jourdain to either stop Culibao or style on him, noting that Culibao will look better at featherweight but Jourdain's pace and spirit will take over late. He mentions Jourdain's wrestling defense is shaky but believes his striking will be the difference.

The host acknowledges Jourdain's skill advantage but is concerned about his poor takedown defense, which could be exploited by Culibao. He predicts a first or second-round KO for Jourdain but finds the -440 line too steep to bet. He suggests inside the distance at -140 as a better option.

The Guru picks Charles Jourdain, praising his last performance against Andre Fili and his improved wrestling defense. He criticizes Culibao's competition and believes Jourdain will win in dominant fashion, predicting a TKO in the second round.

Big Brady picks the underdog Nassourdine Imavov to win by knockout. He notes Imavov is technical and patient, while Williams is high volume but leaves openings and can slow down. He thinks Imavov lands hard and can get a late finish.

Daniel slightly leans with Williams, considering him the bigger, more powerful fighter who will push harder. He respects Imavov's footwork and counters but thinks Williams' boxing and grappling are underrated. He notes both are welterweights moving up and that Williams is a slow starter, so Imavov could catch him early, but expects Williams to edge it out.

The host favors Jordan Williams due to his more well-rounded game and experience, but admits there is limited tape on Imavov, making him hesitant. He predicts a decision win for Williams but calls it a stay-away fight for betting.

The Guru picks Imavov, calling him a 'Dagestani guy' and noting his close split decision loss to a tough opponent. He believes Imavov will be too fast and switched on, and predicts a submission in the first round. He is surprised Imavov is an underdog and thinks the fight should be even.

Big Brady leans towards Loma Lookboonmee to win by decision. He cites her youth, Muay Thai experience, higher volume, and clinch work. He notes Frey is older and low volume, and that Lookboonmee has good takedown defense and trips.

Daniel picks Lookboonmee, citing her Muay Thai background and youth advantage. He thinks Frey is on the tail end of her career and lacks the fire to win close rounds. He predicts a split decision but acknowledges Lookboonmee is overrated and green, and that Frey has the skills to win if she wants it. He advises staying away at the betting window.

The host sees Loma as the rising fighter with superior Muay Thai, particularly leg kicks and clinch knees, while Jinh Yu Frey is on the decline. He expects Loma to win via third-round TKO, noting her finishing potential and Frey's waning durability. He mentions a sprinkle on Loma by TKO at +750.

The Guru picks Loma Lookboonmee, noting her close fight with Angela Hill and her takedown defense. He criticizes Frey's last performance against Kay Hansen and believes Lookboonmee is on the rise.

Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by decision. He highlights Kenney's superior striking volume and takedown defense, noting that Heili is low volume and gets outlanded. He thinks Kenney is better everywhere and that Heili's only chance is a knockout.

Daniel confidently picks Kenney, praising his fight IQ and level of competition. He expects Kenney to use kicks to avoid Heili's right hand, mix in takedowns, and dominate on top. He notes Heili's toughness and power but believes Kenney is on a different level and will out-tough him.

The host is extremely confident in Casey Kenney, citing his superior grappling, scrambles, and experience against high-level grapplers like Manny Bermudez and Brandon Royval. He believes Alateng Heili's wrestling credentials won't translate to MMA grappling and that Kenney will dominate on the ground. He placed a 5-unit bet at -281, calling it his lock of the night.

The Guru picks Casey Kenney, citing his quality wins over Manny Bermudez, Ray Borg, and Louis Smolka, and noting that Alateng's close fight with Ryan Benoit was unimpressive. He acknowledges Kenney is a heavy favorite at 1-3 odds but still picks him, predicting a submission in the first or second round.

Big Brady picks Luigi Vendramini to win by submission. He notes that Vendramini is a BJJ black belt with a 100% finish rate, while Ayari is low volume and not a finisher. He believes if Vendramini gets a takedown, he will submit Ayari, and that Ayari's only path is an ugly decision.

Daniel picks Vendramini, reasoning that his moment of success against Zaleski (taking his back and almost choking him out) was more impressive than Ayari's split decision loss to Stevie Ray. He admits it's not a confident pick because both have been inactive for two years, but he favors Vendramini's potential finishing ability.

The host notes a lack of tape on Luigi Vendramini, making it difficult to assess his takedown success. He favors Jessin Ayari's striking and range management, predicting a decision win, but admits low confidence due to insufficient data on Vendramini.

The Guru picks Jessin Ayari as an upset, arguing that Ayari has faced much better competition than Vendramini, who has fought 'absolute cans'. He notes Ayari is only 28 and still has his career ahead, and that Vendramini's recent loss to Alessio Di Chirico on short notice is a concern. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Ayari.