UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns

Big Brady picks Tyron Woodley to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Woodley's takedown defense is elite and that Burns will not be able to take him down. He thinks Burns will come in overconfident and get caught by a hard shot from Woodley, who hits very hard. However, he notes that Woodley's mental state is a question mark and that Burns could win a close decision if he outworks Woodley, but he ultimately favors Woodley's power and experience.

Daniel leans slightly towards Woodley, believing that at his best he is the better fighter. He acknowledges Woodley's mental fragility and poor performance against Usman, but thinks Woodley's wrestling and power give him a clear path to victory. He notes that Burns has improved but is still hittable and may struggle with Woodley's strength. Daniel calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and is not fully confident.

The MMA Guru picks Tyron Woodley to win by TKO in the second round. He believes Woodley will be patient, let Burns win the first round, then catch him with a counter shot when Burns gets overconfident and tired. He notes that Burns is on short notice and had close fights with Gunnar Nelson and Alexey Kunchenko, and that his win over Demian Maia is not impressive because Maia was looking for a fight with Diego Sanchez. He acknowledges Woodley's annoying style but respects his skill.

Big Brady picks Augusto Sakai to win a very close decision. He thinks Sakai will land more volume and that Ivanov's grappling game plan is unlikely to materialize since Ivanov hasn't used takedowns much in the UFC. He notes that both fighters have great chins and have never been finished, so he expects a boring heavyweight fight that goes to the judges. He admits it's a close fight and wouldn't be surprised if Ivanov gets the decision.

Daniel picks Sakai, citing his improvements in diet and conditioning, his muay thai skills, and his ability to pressure and outwork Ivanov. He notes that Ivanov is one-dimensional, only countering with left hands, and that Sakai's volume and durability will be key. He believes Sakai can either knock out Ivanov or win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Augusto Sakai to win by first-round TKO. He compares Sakai to Derrick Lewis but with better technique and more fight IQ. He predicts Sakai will push Ivanov against the cage and land knees and elbows in the clinch for a finish.

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by stoppage in the second round. He believes Quarantillo has a huge cardio advantage and that Carlyle will gas out if he doesn't get an early finish. He thinks Quarantillo is the more skilled fighter and will weather Carlyle's early storm, then take over in the second or third round. He notes that Carlyle is dangerous in the first round but his cardio is a major concern.

Daniel slightly leans with Billy Q, citing his regional experience, durability, and ability to weather early storms and take over in later rounds. He acknowledges Spike's first-round KO power and improved conditioning but wants to see more from him. Daniel thinks Billy Q can survive early adversity and potentially finish Spike in the second or third round.

The MMA Guru picks Spike Carlyle to win by first-round KO. He acknowledges Billy Quarantillo's impressive last performance but worries about his chin, as he has been knocked out in the first round before. He believes Carlyle's first-round mayhem and aggression will be the difference, and he correctly predicted Carlyle's debut win by first-round KO.

Big Brady picks Roosevelt Roberts to win by submission. He believes Roberts is better everywhere and that Weaver's weakness on the ground will be exploited. He notes that Weaver struggled with Vargas's takedowns and ground game, and Roberts is a step up. He thinks the only way Weaver wins is by a fluke knockout, and he is confident in Roberts getting a submission.

Daniel leans towards Roberts but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation at the current odds. He acknowledges Roberts is the more skilled fighter with a higher ceiling, but notes that Weaver could make it a dogfight. He is not entirely sold on Weaver's level of competition and thinks Roberts should win if he stays focused.

The MMA Guru picks Roosevelt Roberts to win by unanimous decision. He is unimpressed by Brok Weaver's UFC debut, noting that Weaver was taken down repeatedly by Rodrigo Vargas and got knocked out by an illegal knee. He believes Roberts is more well-rounded, with good grappling and striking, and will outwork Weaver.

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to win by submission in the second round. He thinks Dern is better everywhere and that once she takes Cifers down, the fight will be over quickly due to Dern's elite BJJ. He notes that Cifers was taken down and finished by Angela Hill, so Dern should have no trouble. He sees no path to victory for Cifers.

Daniel picks Dern by submission, contingent on her getting a takedown. He notes that Dern's striking may not look -450, but if the fight hits the mat, she is a -4500 favorite. He acknowledges Dern's low takedown accuracy but believes she can take Cifers down and finish quickly.

The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern to win by submission in the first or second round. He cites her jiu-jitsu advantage and size advantage, and predicts she will miss weight and use that to her advantage. He dismisses the striking in women's MMA as generally poor.

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.

Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.

Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by knockout in the first round. He thinks Rodriguez is the better fighter overall, more technical, and has a black belt in BJJ. He notes that Green is coming up in weight and that Rodriguez will be the bigger, more powerful fighter. He expects a finish inside the distance and calls Green a 'killer or be killed' guy who will get knocked out.

Daniel picks Rodriguez to stop Green, citing his durability, power, and the fact that Green is taking the fight on short notice and may not be in shape. He notes Rodriguez's impressive debut win over Tim Means and his training at elevation with Cowboy Cerrone.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to win by TKO in the second or third round. He notes that Holland is better at 170 lbs, has a massive reach advantage, and is coming off a full camp while Rodriguez is on short notice. He predicts Holland will use front kicks to the body to gas Rodriguez and then finish him.

Big Brady picks Klidson Abreu to win by submission. He believes Hill is a much better striker, but his takedown defense and ground game are huge liabilities. He thinks Abreu will take Hill down and submit him, as Hill's ground game is very green. He notes that Hill struggled to get up from takedowns against Stoic and that Abreu is a better grappler than Stoic.

Daniel picks Hill, citing his volume, striking, and high ceiling. He notes that Abreu often brawls and doesn't use his takedowns consistently, and that Hill's takedown defense will improve with experience. He expects Hill to win a decision or possibly get a finish if Abreu gasses.

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill to win by KO. He notes that Hill is bigger, longer, and younger in his career, evolving rapidly. He dismisses Klidson Abreu's competition, mentioning losses to Darko Stosic and others. He believes Hill's size and reach advantage will be decisive.

Big Brady picks Tim Elliott to win by decision. He thinks Elliott can take Royval down at will and control him, but he notes that Elliott often puts himself in bad positions and has been submitted before. He acknowledges Royval's BJJ is no joke and that Royval could snatch a submission from his back. He calls it a close fight and advises not to bet on it due to the danger of Elliott getting submitted.

Daniel leans with the underdog Royval, citing his hunger, creativity, and submission threat off his back. He notes that Elliott is experienced but has a poor UFC record and may not care enough. He thinks Royval's momentum and will to win could be decisive.

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval to win by submission. He notes that Royval is a bigger flyweight with long range, and that Tim Elliott has taken a lot of damage recently and walks into punches. He predicts Royval will rock Elliott and then submit him, as Elliott's grappling won't be enough to keep him down.

Big Brady picks Casey Kenney to win by dominant decision. He believes Kenney is better everywhere and can take Smolka down at will. He thinks Kenney's BJJ is too good for Smolka to submit him, and that Kenney will control the fight on the ground or on the feet. He expects a 30-27 or 30-26 decision.

Daniel slightly leans with Kenney but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation at -270. He respects Kenney's well-rounded game and toughness, but notes that Smolka is durable and can scramble. He expects a close fight and advises against betting the favorite at those odds.

The MMA Guru picks Casey Kenney to win by unanimous decision. He admits he wasn't impressed by Kenney's last performance but believes he is a very good fighter. He thinks Kenney will be the smaller man but will outwork Louis Smolka, who has had a long career. He predicts a decision win.