UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane

Angelo picks Gane, citing his superior footwork and technical striking. He believes Gane will dance around, land many strikes, and mix in grappling to avoid Lewis's power. He notes that Lewis only needs one punch but that Gane's movement and fight IQ should prevail. He also mentions he has Gane in his DraftKings lineup.

Big Brady thinks Gane is the much better fighter with dominant striking stats and excellent range management. He expects Gane to stay on the outside and avoid Lewis's power, possibly finishing late. He predicts a fourth-round KO for Gane, but acknowledges Lewis always has a puncher's chance. He calls Gane the biggest favorite on the card for good reason.

Cody believes Gane will win, using his jab, body kicks, and distance management to outpoint Lewis. He notes Lewis's power but thinks Gane can avoid it and potentially finish via submission or TKO. Cody likes the under 4.5 rounds as a parlay piece and mentions Gane by submission as a value prop.

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane to win the minutes of the fight, citing Gane's technical striking, distance management, and overall skill advantage. However, he is very worried about Derrick Lewis's one-punch knockout power, especially in Houston where Lewis is undefeated. He notes that Gane is still developing and could get caught, but believes Gane is the better fighter and should win if he avoids the big shot. He does not lay the price confidently.

Gane has superior cardio and technical striking. Lewis is dangerous early but fades. Gane can work the body, use kicks, and avoid Lewis's power shots. When Lewis blitzes and fails, Gane can capitalize. Gane may also look for takedowns to dominate. The finish likely comes in the third or fourth round via body shot or TKO. The under 4.5 rounds is a strong play.

Paul agrees with Cody that Gane will win, citing Gane's superior distance management, jab, and body kicks. He notes that Derrick Lewis has a puncher's chance but Gane's precision and ring IQ should prevail. Paul expects Gane to win by TKO inside the distance, likely under 4.5 rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane to win by fourth-round body shot TKO. He praises Gane's footwork, distance management, jab, and front kick. He believes Gane's technical striking will outclass Lewis, who relies on power. He notes Lewis' chin but doubts he can land cleanly on Gane. He predicts Gane will break Lewis down and finish with a teep to the stomach.

Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.

Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.

Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.

Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.

Angelo is hesitant but leans Chiesa, noting that Chiesa is one-dimensional with wrestling but can dictate where the fight goes. He acknowledges Luque's power and improved wrestling camp with Kami Barzini, but thinks Chiesa's relentless grappling may be too much. He calls it a close fight and says he would avoid betting the moneyline.

Big Brady believes Chiesa's wrestling and top control will be the key. He notes Luque is hittable and has been taken down before, while Chiesa shoots for takedowns immediately and limits opponents' striking opportunities. He thinks Luque is finish-or-bust and will likely lose a decision. He picks Chiesa as a dog by decision.

Cody picks Chiesa, citing his wrestling and ability to neutralize Luque's striking. He notes that Luque has struggled against wrestlers in the past and that Chiesa's top control and pressure will be effective. Cody expects a decision win for Chiesa.

Daniel Levi picks Vicente Luque to finish Michael Chiesa, citing Luque's striking advantage, calf kicks, left hook, and opportunistic submission ability. He believes Chiesa is outgunned on the feet and will have to shoot from distance, which could lead to a guillotine or other finish for Luque. He also notes that Chiesa hasn't been truly tested at 170 and that Luque is a clear step up in competition. He thinks the line should be closer to -160.

Chiesa is a big welterweight with strong wrestling and grappling. Luque is a dangerous striker but has not faced a wrestler of Chiesa's caliber. Chiesa should take the fight to the ground and control Luque, avoiding striking exchanges. Luque's BJJ off his back is not elite, and Chiesa can grind out a decision or find a submission. The decision prop at +240 is good value.

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a 'dogger pass situation' and taking Chiesa. He notes that Chiesa's wet blanket style may not be pretty but is effective, and that he usually avoids stand-ups by staying busy in half guard. Paul prefers the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.

The MMA Guru picks Vicente Luque to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Michael Chiesa's poor stand-up and inactivity, and believes Luque's power and takedown defense will be key. He predicts Luque will catch Chiesa coming in for a clinch and finish him with an uppercut-hook combo. He also notes Chiesa's grappling doesn't do enough damage.

Angelo is very confident in Torres, citing her high volume, good grappling, and that she has only lost to champions. He notes that Hill has improved but still struggled against Ashley Yoder, while Torres is a much higher level. He mentions he bet Torres at -132 and expects her to win a decision, possibly mixing in grappling as she did in the first fight.

Big Brady thinks this rematch will look similar to the first fight, with Torres mixing in takedowns and controlling Hill on the ground. He notes Hill's takedown defense has improved but she was still taken down by Ashley Yoder. He predicts Torres will win a decision by using takedowns and clinch control.

Cody picks Torres, arguing she has looked like a different fighter in her last two outings with increased confidence and output. He believes Torres has the wrestling advantage and will mix in takedowns to secure a close decision. He notes Angela Hill is a tough gatekeeper but lacks power and strength.

Daniel Levi picks Tecia Pennington via decision, citing her better mindset, skill set, and ability to win rounds. He criticizes Angela Hill for not accepting responsibility for her losses and for accusing Pennington of steroid use without evidence. He believes Pennington is more realistic and has a win over Hill already. He expects a close fight but favors Pennington's consistency and judge-friendly style.

Hill has polished her game and should have better striking and movement. Torres will likely grapple, but Hill has improved takedown defense and should get back to her feet. The fight will likely be close and go to decision, but Hill is the underdog and has a good chance. However, trusting Texas judges is risky, so it's a pass for betting.

Paul leans towards Torres, noting her recent confidence and improved output. He thinks Torres is the better athlete and has a more well-rounded game, but acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way. He mentions the over is heavily juiced and expects a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Tecia Torres over Angela Hill. He notes Torres' improved striking, especially her kicks, and her dominant win over Sam Hughes. He believes Torres' speed and output will outwork Hill, who is older (36). He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Torres.

Angelo picks Kenney, citing his forward pressure, volume, leg kicks, and grappling. He believes Kenney will back Yadong up and mix in takedowns, similar to how Yadong lost to Kyler Phillips. He notes Yadong has better technical striking but struggles when backing up. He also mentions he has a moneyline bet on Kenney.

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Kenney's volume and Yadong's power. He thinks Kenney's ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference, as Yadong has 56% takedown defense. He predicts a close decision win for Kenney, but acknowledges the judges could go either way.

Cody picks Kenney, citing his superior volume and cardio. He notes that Song Yadong tends to fade in later rounds, while Kenney is a slow starter who pushes the pace. Cody expects Kenney to lose the first round but win the next two, making him a good live betting option.

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong, believing he has more ways to win including a potential knockout early or late. He notes that Casey Kenney tends to fade in later rounds and has been taken down multiple times, while Song has power and improving cardio. He acknowledges the fight is close but leans Song because of his finishing ability and the fact that Kenney is undersized for bantamweight.

Kenney has a grappling advantage and better cardio. He is one of the best scramblers in the UFC and should mix striking with takedowns. Yadong is a power puncher but has shown limited progression and will struggle with Kenney's footwork and level changes. Kenney should grind out a decision, possibly winning the later rounds decisively.

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a volume play. He thinks Kenney's pressure and output will be key, and that losing round one is possible if Kenney doesn't secure an early takedown. He doesn't add much new analysis.

The MMA Guru picks Casey Kenney over Song Yadong. He praises Kenney's cardio, output, and grappling advantage (black belt in judo). He believes Kenney's pace and body work will be too much for Yadong, and predicts a unanimous decision win. He notes Yadong's win over Marlon Vera was controversial.

Angelo picks Fiziev to win but is not confident in a stoppage. He calls Fiziev the most dangerous striker in the division and a world-class striker. He acknowledges Green is tough and can grapple, but thinks Fiziev's striking and cardio will be too much. He has a prop bet on Fiziev winning by decision.

Big Brady thinks Fiziev is legit with powerful striking but notes he has slowed in third rounds. He respects Green's durability and wrestling, but believes Fiziev's takedown defense is solid. He predicts Fiziev will win rounds 1 and 2, possibly dropping the third, and win a 29-28 decision. He calls the -310 line disrespectful to Green.

Cody picks Fiziev, arguing that Bobby Green's lackadaisical style and poor ring IQ will be his downfall. He notes Fiziev's improvements in wrestling defense and his powerful striking. Cody thinks Fiziev will land big shots and chop Green's legs, leading to a finish or clear decision.

Daniel Levi picks Rafael Fiziev to stop Bobby Green, citing Fiziev's superior speed, power, and clean striking. He notes that Green plays with fire with his head movement and hands-down style, which will be punished by a precise kickboxer like Fiziev. He also mentions that Green has been stopped by strikes only twice before (Dustin Poirier and Tim Means) and expects Fiziev to add to that list. He is a huge fan of Green but believes the matchup favors Fiziev heavily.

Fiziev is a technical striker with great Muay Thai and improving MMA game. Green is durable and will pressure, but Fiziev can mix in takedowns and control the fight. Green is hard to finish, so a decision is likely. The line has moved due to hype, but Fiziev should win a close decision. He is slowly entering the top tier.

Paul disagrees with Cody and picks Bobby Green as a dog. He thinks Green is underrated and that Fiziev's price is too high. Paul believes Green's durability and boxing could lead to a decision win, and likes the plus money on Green by decision.

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev over Bobby Green. He highlights Fiziev's speed, power, takedown defense, and body kicks. He predicts Fiziev will win the first two rounds with his striking, and Green may take the third but it won't be enough. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Fiziev.

Angelo leans Morales, noting that Rodriguez has a weak chin and Morales comes forward aggressively. He thinks Morales can touch that chin and get a finish. He calls it a 50/50 fight but likes Morales as an underdog pick.

Big Brady likes Morales returning to his natural bantamweight after a loss at featherweight. He thinks Morales has power and will have a striking advantage against Rodriguez, who has poor striking defense and a questionable chin. He notes Rodriguez will try to grapple but Morales has a good get-up game. He predicts a third-round knockout as Rodriguez slows down.

Cody picks Rodriguez, citing his sharper technical boxing and speed. He notes that Morales has poor ring IQ and doesn't use his wrestling, while Rodriguez has better output. Cody expects a decision win for Rodriguez.

Daniel Levi picks Drako Rodriguez, though not confidently. He criticizes Vince Morales as 'harmless' at the UFC level, lacking power and takedown options. He notes that Rodriguez has submission threats off his back and decent hands, but acknowledges that Rodriguez has been stopped in his two fights against UFC-caliber opponents. He believes Rodriguez will come with urgency after a surprising loss and that Morales is a favorable matchup for him.

Morales has better footwork, hand speed, and boxing. Rodriguez's best chance is to get the fight to the ground and use his jiu-jitsu, but he may struggle to take Morales down and hold him there. Morales should stuff takedowns and outwork Rodriguez on the feet, likely winning a decision. No big money on this fight.

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges the close nature and does not add his own analysis.

The MMA Guru picks Vince Morales over Drako Rodriguez. He acknowledges it's a tough pick but favors Morales' scrappiness, toughness, and better chin. He criticizes Rodriguez's poor striking defense and notes Morales has better cardio and output. He predicts Morales will out-hustle Rodriguez to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

Angelo does not make a clear winner pick. He notes Menifield has power but gasses, while Herman is tough and experienced. He suggests waiting for live odds after round one, as Herman could be a huge underdog if he survives. He bets over 1.5 rounds.

Big Brady believes Menifield is much younger, more athletic, and has a massive power advantage. He thinks Ed Herman's takedown attempts will be stuffed early, and Menifield will land a first-round knockout. He notes Menifield slows down later, but expects an early finish. He is not impressed with Herman's recent win streak, calling it weak.

Cody picks Menifield, arguing that Ed Herman is past his prime and Menifield's youth and power should prevail. He notes Menifield's cardio concerns but thinks he can finish early. Cody expects a knockout win.

Daniel Levi picks Alonzo Menifield to get an early knockout, citing Menifield's power and the fact that Ed Herman is 40 years old and likely to fade. He acknowledges that Herman is a savvy veteran who could make it interesting if the fight goes past the first round, but believes Menifield has improved from his losses and will finish Herman early. He also notes that Herman has been stopped by body shots recently, which plays into Menifield's strengths.

Menifield has tremendous knockout power and should land early. Herman is 40 years old and has been finished before by knockout. Menifield's best chance is a first-round KO, as his cardio is questionable. If Herman survives the first round, he could have success later, but Menifield is likely to get the finish early. The moneyline at -250 is too steep, so the KO prop is the play.

Paul picks Menifield but is wary of the price. He notes Menifield's cardio issues but thinks he can get an early finish. He suggests live betting Herman if Menifield gasses.

The MMA Guru picks Alonzo Menifield to win by first-round TKO. He notes Menifield's explosiveness and athleticism, and criticizes Ed Herman's age (40) and recent performances. He believes Menifield will be too strong in the clinch and on the feet, and predicts a first-round KO.

Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.

Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.

Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.

Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.

Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

Angelo leans Kape, calling him the better fighter but noting he makes terrible decisions. He thinks Kape can wrestle and has better striking, but Osbourne is live for a finish. He mentions the weight miss by Kape and doesn't think it was strategic. He has Kape in knockout kings.

Big Brady acknowledges Kape's two-fight losing streak but notes he faced tough competition (Pantoja, Nicolau) and is now stepping down in class. He thinks Kape has huge power and can get takedowns if needed, while Osbourne is cutting to flyweight for the first time and has poor takedown defense. He predicts Kape will survive an early storm and finish Osbourne by second-round knockout.

Cody picks Kape, arguing that his level of competition has been higher and that he should improve. He notes Kape's speed and power, but is concerned about his low volume. Cody thinks Kape will win but the price is unappealing.

Daniel Levi picks Manel Kape to get his first UFC win, citing Kape's experience at 125 pounds and his battle-tested resume against tough competition like Pantoja and Nicolau. He notes that Ode' Osbourne is dropping to flyweight for the first time and may struggle with the weight cut and pace. He believes Kape has the advantage in later rounds and can win by decision, though he acknowledges Osbourne's explosiveness and submission threat off his back.

Kape has crazy knockout power and good striking, with hand speed that should be too much for Osbourne. He is a brown/black belt in jiu-jitsu, which should keep him safe on the ground. Osbourne has green moments and hasn't faced someone of Kape's caliber. Kape is fighting for his roster spot and should come out fired up, likely getting a knockout in the first or second round.

Paul leans towards Kape, agreeing that he is the better technical striker. He acknowledges the concerns about Kape's volume but thinks he will prevail. Paul is not laying the price.

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape over Ode' Osbourne. He trusts Kape's level of competition and experience, noting Osbourne tends to fade as fights go on. He predicts Osbourne will have a good first round but slow down, allowing Kape to win a 29-28 decision. He mentions Osbourne's explosiveness but doubts his cardio.

Angelo leans dos Santos, noting that Johns has cardio issues and gasses. He says dos Santos has good jiu-jitsu and power, and if he survives the early rounds, he can submit or knock out a tired Johns. He acknowledges Johns is the favorite for a reason.

Big Brady likes Miles Johns as a young, improving fighter with a wrestling background and solid takedown defense. He notes Anderson dos Santos is older, has taken a lot of damage, and has poor striking defense. He predicts Johns will keep the fight standing and land a second-round knockout, though he warns dos Santos is dangerous on the ground. He had a bet on Johns at -170 but is waiting for a better line.

Cody picks Johns, citing his superior wrestling and athleticism. He notes that dos Santos is plodding and hittable, and that Johns should be able to win two of three rounds. He is not concerned about the COVID layoff for dos Santos.

Daniel Levi picks Miles Johns via decision, citing Johns' ability to play it safe, stall, and win rounds by mixing takedowns and control time. He acknowledges that Anderson dos Santos has finishing upside and is a tough journeyman, but believes Johns' wrestling and game management will carry him to a decision win, especially with Texas judges potentially favoring the local fighter.

Dos Santos can create chaos on the feet with reckless striking, which may force a desperation takedown from Johns. Once on the ground, dos Santos can lock up a submission. Johns has good wrestling and power but questionable cardio, and if he slows down, dos Santos can capitalize. A club-and-sub situation is live.

Paul does not make a clear pick. He previously called it a dogger pass and nothing has changed.

The MMA Guru picks Miles Johns over Anderson dos Santos. He praises Johns' grappling and strength, noting his wins over Kevin Natividad (despite a glove grab controversy), Cole Smith, and Richie Santiago. He believes Johns is younger (27) and more athletic, and will out-grapple dos Santos to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

Angelo picks Leonardo, citing Gatto's long layoff (2.5 years due to USADA suspension) and that Gatto is a grappler who likes to fight off her back. He thinks Leonardo will be on top and win a decision. He calls Leonardo a solid underdog pick.

Big Brady is hesitant on this fight due to many question marks. He thinks Melissa Gatto is sub-or-bust and has poor takedown defense, while Victoria Leonardo is more active and likely the better striker. He picks Leonardo to win by decision but warns that Gatto could pull off an armbar from guard. He advises staying away from betting this fight.

Cody picks Gatto, citing the narrative of Brazilian fighters improving after long layoffs. He notes her BJJ skills and potential improvements in wrestling. He thinks she can get the fight to the ground and submit Leonardo.

Daniel Levi picks Melissa Gatto to win by opportunistic submission, citing that Victoria Leonardo is a punching bag on the feet and has been stopped multiple times. He notes that Gatto is young and may have improved during her USADA suspension, and that Leonardo's takedown attempts could lead to submissions. He does not put much stock into the suspension for a young fighter and believes Gatto has the skills to finish.

Gatto is a BJJ specialist who relies on takedowns, but Leonardo has a purple belt and good enough grappling to nullify submissions. Leonardo is stronger, has better striking, and better cardio. The longer the fight goes, the more success Leonardo will have, likely finishing Gatto in the third round via ground and pound.

Paul does not make a clear pick. He is surprised by the pick'em line and notes the lack of tape on both fighters.

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He highlights Gatto's undefeated record (6-0 with two draws) and her win over Carol Rosa, who is now on a four-fight win streak in the UFC. He criticizes Victoria Leonardo's lack of technical skill and poor chin, noting she has been knocked out twice recently. He predicts Gatto will submit Leonardo, possibly off her back.

Angelo picks Muñoz, noting his high ownership on DraftKings (38%). He thinks Muñoz is the better fighter and expects a finish, possibly by submission in round 2 or 3. He mentions Muñoz's smooth transitions on the ground.

Big Brady is very high on Johnny Muñoz Jr., praising his slick BJJ and noting he looked good in his UFC debut despite a point deduction. He believes Muñoz is better everywhere, including striking, and that Jamey Simmons doesn't belong in the UFC. He predicts an early finish, specifically a first-round submission, as Muñoz is a black belt and Simmons is a blue belt who will likely try to grapple.

Cody picks Muñoz, arguing that his BJJ is elite and that Simmons is not UFC caliber. He notes Muñoz's improved striking and wrestling, and expects a submission win. Cody thinks the price is steep but Muñoz should win.

Daniel Levi picks Johnny Muñoz Jr., but is sketched out by the wide line. He notes that Muñoz is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and should be able to get a submission, but acknowledges that Jamey Simmons is a former wrestler who could use his wrestling in reverse to keep the fight standing. He thinks the opener was more correct and that there is a path to victory for Simmons, but ultimately leans Muñoz.

Munoz is a high-level BJJ specialist with a strong grappling background. Simmons is a wrestler who wants to take the fight to the ground, but Munoz is confident in his grappling and can reverse or submit him. If Simmons strikes, Munoz has decent power and can invite takedowns to set up submissions. Munoz should find a submission in round two.

Paul picks Muñoz, citing his BJJ black belt and multiple submission wins. He notes that Simmons has poor durability and was finished quickly by lower-level opponents. Paul expects Muñoz to get the fight to the ground and submit Simmons.

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Muñoz Jr. over Jamey Simmons. He notes that Muñoz's loss to Nate Maness was controversial due to groin shots, and that Muñoz outlanded Maness in significant strikes. He believes Simmons will be hesitant after a first-round KO loss to Giga Chikadze, and that Muñoz has never been finished and has better composure. He predicts Muñoz will win a unanimous decision 29-28.