Diego Lopes

Angelo picks Volkanovski to win the rematch, citing his insane cardio, high fight IQ, and ability to game plan. He believes Volkanovski will wrestle more this time to take away Diego's distance, where he landed his best shots. Angelo acknowledges Diego's dangerous grappling and striking, and notes that Diego was close to finishing Volkanovski in the first fight. He suggests a prop bet on Diego Lopes winning inside the distance, as you get a refund if he doesn't and get paid if he does.

Big Brady leans toward Diego Lopes for the upset, citing that Lopes needs to be more aggressive and make it a 'car crash' to touch Volkanovski's chin, which has been cracked. He notes Lopes dropped Volkanovski in the first fight and started turning it on in the later rounds. However, he acknowledges Volkanovski wins a decision 90% of the time if it goes the distance, so Lopes must finish. Brady predicts a second-round knockout for Lopes.

Cody believes Volkanovski will win a decision similar to the first fight, citing his superior striking volume and takedown defense. He notes that Volkanovski landed 158 significant strikes in the first fight and that Lopes' ground game was ineffective. He acknowledges Volkanovski's age and potential decline but sees no evidence of regression yet. He picks Volkanovski by decision.

Connor picks Diego Lopes because he believes that Volkanovski is older and more vulnerable, and that Lopes has a puncher's chance that becomes more likely the more times they fight. He notes that Lopes is insanely fast and durable, and that Volkanovski's defensive decisions have worsened. However, he acknowledges that Volkanovski is still the more technical fighter and that Lopes could easily lose.

Daniel Vreeland picks Volkanovski to outclass Lopes again, citing his superior fight IQ, feinting game, and all-around skills. He notes that Lopes needs a finish to win, as he has a negative record in decisions, but Volkanovski is tough to put away and has already proven he can handle Lopes' best shots. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' dangerous finishing ability but believes Volkanovski's adjustments and experience will prevail.

James picks Diego Lopes to win the rematch, citing Lopes' momentum from his KO of Jean Silva, improved camp, and admission of ego issues in the first fight. He believes Lopes will push a higher pace and force pocket exchanges where he can land a knockout. James notes Volkanovski's age and potential decline, and that the close odds (Volk -155) suggest the fight is a toss-up. He also mentions Lopes' durability and submission threat.

Volkanovski's fight IQ and tactical approach will allow him to execute a game plan similar to their first fight: jab, leg kick, takedowns to disrupt Lopes' rhythm. He out-struck Lopes 158 to 63 in their first bout, landing at 61% in rounds three and five. Lopes may be more aggressive this time, but Volkanovski's submission defense and ability to stick and move should neutralize that. The host notes that if Lopes wins, it likely comes by knockout, but he favors the better overall fighter. He suggests waiting for better odds on Volkanovski during fight week.

Paul argues that Volkanovski clearly won the first fight 4-1 and that the line is too close given that result. He acknowledges Lopes' improvements and Volkanovski's age but believes the champion's skills and experience will prevail. He sees a similar outcome, possibly a 48-47 decision.

The Guru picks Diego Lopes by TKO in round two, citing his performance in the first fight where he dropped Volkanovski. He believes Volkanovski's age, layoff, and lack of motivation will be factors, while Lopes has improved and has a lottery ticket mentality. He expects Lopes to finish him this time.

Angelo picks Jean Silva, calling him the fighting nerds' last hope. He says Silva is a powerful striker, loose, creative, and composed. He notes Diego Lopez has dangerous BJJ and power, but his technique goes out the window as the fight goes on, and he is too busy coaching others. He thinks Silva will beat the hell out of Lopez, and the odds reflect that accurately.

Big Brady picks Silva because of his exceptional power and Lopes's poor striking defense. He notes Lopes has only two takedowns in the UFC and Silva has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing. He predicts Silva knocks out Lopes, who has been knocked out twice before, in the third round.

Connor picks Jean Silva, emphasizing Silva's superior positioning and distance management, which he compares to Anderson Silva. He notes that Silva's natural feel for the fight and ability to remain unanxious will allow him to handle Lopes's pressure. Connor acknowledges Lopes's power and durability but believes Silva's style is better suited for an unstructured fight, where his innate skills shine.

The host believes people are realizing Lopes is not as good as he seemed. He expects Silva to dictate the pace, take the center, land big shots, break Lopes down, fend off takedowns, and eventually find a knockout, cementing himself as a top contender.

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes, arguing that Jean Silva is being overhyped and that the 'Fighting Nerds' mystique has faded. He notes Lopes has championship experience, having gone five rounds with Volkanovski, and crashes well, which will trouble Silva. He believes Silva's loose, goofy style will be shut down when Lopes lands power. He predicts a second-round finish.

Connor picks Volkanovski, echoing Zane's reasoning about Lopes' lack of process. He emphasizes that Lopes' success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents, and that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory. Connor notes that Lopes' style is similar to Paddy Pimblett's but with better athleticism, and that Volkanovski's wrestling and fight IQ should be enough to overcome Lopes' early aggression. He acknowledges the risk of Volkanovski's chin but believes Lopes is not the same level as Topuria or Makhachev.

Daniel Levi picked Diego Lopes going into the fight, believing Lopes would catch Volkanovski and close the show as he normally does. He expected Volkanovski to be diminished from back-to-back knockout losses. However, he notes that Lopes was gunshy and hesitant after hurting Volkanovski, failing to pull the trigger enough, which cost him the fight.

Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkanovski to win, citing his superior skill set, cardio, fight IQ, and ability to win the minutes. He believes Volkanovski will dominate in rounds four and five, as Lopes has shown a tendency to fade late. He acknowledges the danger of Lopes' early finishing ability but thinks Volkanovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also notes that Volkanovski has taken a year off to recover, which should benefit him. The biggest worry is Volkanovski's age and potential decline, but he still sides with the former champion.

Angelo picks Diego Lopes confidently, having placed a full unit on him at -175. He dismisses concerns about Lopes fading in the third round of his last fight, attributing it to the chaos of multiple opponent and weight class changes on short notice. He believes Lopes is the better striker and grappler, and that Ortega's takedown accuracy is poor. He criticizes Ortega for missing weight and calls him a 'fat slob', expecting Lopes to steamroll him again.

Big Brady picks Lopes, citing his rapid improvement, youth, and hunger. He notes Lopes can win by decision or early finish, but expects Ortega's toughness to carry him to a decision loss. He predicts Lopes wins 29-28.

Daniel picks Diego Lopes but with low confidence, citing Lopes' tendency to fade in third rounds and Ortega's legendary third-round finishing ability. He thinks Lopes will win a controversial split decision by taking the first two rounds, but worries about Ortega's durability and Lopes' cardio. He notes Lopes' dangerous hooks and Ortega's ability to weather storms.

Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as a dog, citing his grappling advantage as the difference maker. He notes Ortega nearly submitted Alexander Volkanovski and controlled Yair Rodriguez on the mat. He believes Diego Lopez relies on scrambles, while Ortega catches people in scrambles. He trusts Ortega's grappling to hold up and likes the plus money.

Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes because he is bigger, younger, and can grapple a bit. He took Lopes last time and is sticking with him, noting Lopes is on a roll.

The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host covers other fights but not Lopes vs Ortega.

Lopez's BJJ background will save him from the threat Ortega normally poses on the ground. Lopez also provides more threats in the striking realm. Expects Lopez to win inside the distance.

Cody fades the hype on Diego Lopes and picks Brian Ortega. He argues that Lopes' wins are over lower-level competition (Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodi Yusuf) and that his takedown defense is poor. Ortega, on the other hand, has fought the elite of the division and has shown improved wrestling, taking down Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway. Cody believes Ortega's experience, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu will neutralize Lopes' grappling, and that Ortega has multiple paths to victory including submission or decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as the underdog, arguing that people are writing him off too soon. He notes that Ortega was a whisper away from submitting Alexander Volkanovski, and his grappling is at another level. Vreeland believes Ortega can hold his own on the feet and will get the better of scrambles. He compares this fight to Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez, where Ortega proved doubters wrong. He also questions whether Diego Lopes is as good as Yair Rodriguez.

Daniel is leaning towards Ortega (Ige) by decision, citing Ortega's durability, offensive wrestling improvements, and experience against top competition. He notes that Lopes has a poor record when fights go to decision (2-4) and that Ortega is 5-1 in decisions with the only loss to Volkanovski. He expects Ortega to weather early adversity and accumulate top control.

Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes, stating he is far more explosive on the feet, which is a concern for Ortega. He acknowledges Ortega's grappling is elite but notes that the Volkanovski fight was almost four years ago. Fox prefers the younger fighter who has been mowing through people and sees good value in the line. He admits it's a close matchup but leans Lopes.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host gives a slight lean to Diego Lopes, citing his momentum, confidence, and striking improvements. He believes Lopes has good enough defensive jiu-jitsu to avoid Ortega's submissions and should have a striking advantage. He notes Ortega has more high-level experience but thinks Lopes' style is perfect to beat Ortega. He mentions the line has moved from -160 to -125 and says he might bet if Lopes becomes the underdog.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market loves Lopes but that Ortega has never been finished and has fought the best. He points out that Lopes has low striking volume and questionable takedown defense, while Ortega has a proven ability to win decisions or submissions. Paul also mentions that Ortega's experience against top competition gives him a clear edge, and that Lopes' hype is based on flashy finishes over lesser opponents.

Angelo picks Sodiq Yusuff as the underdog, believing he is the much better striker with good fight IQ to avoid grappling. He notes Lopes has dangerous BJJ but will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.

Cody fades Diego Lopes again, noting Lopes' wrestling isn't great and he stands tall, leaving himself open to be hit. He points out that Lopes has been taken down by Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker. Yusuff is a sharpshooter with good Jiu-Jitsu from Team Lloyd Irvin, and he has cardio and decent power. Cody believes Yusuff can use a point-fight style, staying at range and picking Lopes apart. He also mentions that Yusuff has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. Cody picks Yusuff as an underdog.

Connor picks Lopes, arguing that his relentless chaos and willingness to keep trying different attacks will overwhelm Yusuff. He notes that Yusuff often starts strong but fades as opponents adjust, while Lopes just increases the intensity. Connor admits that Yusuff could win by controlling Lopes on the ground, but he believes Lopes' unpredictability and durability will carry him.

Daniel Vreeland picks Sodiq Yusuff, citing his superior boxing, output, and defensive skills. He believes Yusuff can outpoint Lopes and avoid submissions, noting that Lopes is opportunistic but limited. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' finishing ability but trusts Yusuff's experience and durability.

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a banger and says he is very interested in it, but does not give a prediction. He notes that most people won't know about it unless they are hardcore fans, and that it will be on the prelims.

Yusuff has better experience and a higher level striking game. His takedown defense and ability to keep the fight upright will force Lopes to make mistakes on the feet, allowing Yusuff to counter and find a knockout in round two.

Paul sides with Cody, noting that Yusuff should have advantages at range. He acknowledges a red flag: Edson Barboza, not known for wrestling, took Yusuff down three times, so Lopes could get the fight to the ground. However, Paul believes Yusuff has enough takedown defense and ground skills to survive. He thinks the fight could go to decision and mentions the decision prop at +250. Paul expects Yusuff to keep the fight upright and win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes to win by rear-naked choke, despite initially considering Sodiq Yusuff. He notes Yusuff struggled against Alex Caceres and that Lopes thrives under pressure. He believes Lopes's finishing ability and scrambling will be too much for Yusuff, who may be hesitant after a five-round war.

Angelo picks Sabatini, believing his takedowns and BJJ will neutralize Lopes. He criticizes Lopes' takedown defense and striking, and thinks Sabatini will control the fight on the ground. He plans to bet on Sabatini later in the week.

Big Brady picks Diego Lopes as the underdog, predicting a second or third round submission. He likes Lopes' evolving striking, power, and dangerous submission game off his back. He worries about Sabatini's durability on the feet, noting he has been dropped early in fights. Brady thinks Lopes has more ways to win and that Sabatini will have to fight off submissions for 15 minutes.

Cody picks Sabatini, expecting him to get takedowns and control the fight on top. He notes Sabatini's suffocating top game and ability to avoid submissions. He thinks Lopes' guard is dangerous but Sabatini's grappling is good enough to avoid trouble, and he sees value at even money.

James leans Diego Lopes because he believes Lopes has a clear advantage on the feet with more power and a better chin, while Sabatini's wrestling may not be sufficient to consistently control Lopes. He notes that Sabatini has been submitted before and is chinny, and Lopes has submission upside. However, he acknowledges Sabatini could have control time on top, making it a tricky matchup.

Sabatini is the better wrestler and will dictate where the fight takes place. He is a good enough BJJ artist to fend off Lopes' submission attempts. Sabatini will control positions and grind out a decision win. The line at -120 is a good value. Notes that recency bias from Lopes' highlight finishes is inflating his line.

Paul picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and top control. He notes Lopes has been taken down easily in the past and relies on submissions from guard. He thinks Sabatini's suffocating style will neutralize Lopes' offense and lead to a decision win.

Angelo picks Gavin Tucker, citing his high pace, takedowns, and ability to ride to a win. He notes that Diego Lopes relies too much on raw Jiu-Jitsu off his back and gets taken down too easily. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Tucker at +115, but would have a full unit if not for Tucker's two-year layoff. He criticizes recency bias favoring Lopes for not getting finished by a fighter who finishes nobody.

Big Brady picks Lopes but hates the line (-180). He notes Tucker is 37, coming off a long layoff and a knockout loss, and has durability issues. He thinks Lopes can hurt or submit Tucker, but acknowledges Tucker's path to victory is taking Lopes down and controlling him, as Lopes has poor takedown defense. He would prefer to bet Lopes by submission but warns the price is scary.

Cody picks Tucker as a plus-money underdog, citing his BJJ black belt, better wrestling, and counter-striking. He notes Tucker's long layoff and age (37) as risks, but believes Tucker can survive the first round and then take over with takedowns and pressure. He admits recency bias from Lopes' impressive debut but thinks Tucker's advantages in wrestling and experience will prevail.

Daniel Levi picks Diego Lopes but hesitantly, citing Lopes' opportunistic finishing ability and Tucker's durability issues. He notes that Lopes is dangerous with submissions and power, but his low output could allow Tucker to outpoint him if he doesn't finish. Levi is concerned about Tucker's age (37) and history of getting knocked out, but also acknowledges Tucker's offensive skills. He believes Lopes will likely need a finish to win, as he doubts Lopes can win a decision.

James disagrees with the public betting on Tucker. He thinks Tucker is old (37), inactive, and has been hurt and knocked out before. Lopes is a high-volume, heavy-handed fighter who will push a pace Tucker can't keep. James predicts Lopes will finish Tucker, likely via pace or strikes.

Tucker is a talented striker with a BJJ black belt, which should be enough to keep the fight safe on the ground. Lopes depends too much on his BJJ and plays off his back, eating clock. Tucker's long layoff due to a rotator cuff injury is a concern, but he's still talented enough to beat Lopes. I'm taking the underdog Tucker by decision.

Paul leans towards Lopes by submission at +230, citing Lopes' impressive short-notice debut and submission skills. He notes Tucker's long layoff and knockout loss, but acknowledges Lopes' takedown defense issues and potential cardio problems. He sees Lopes catching Tucker in a submission early.

Angelo picks Movsar Evloev confidently, comparing this fight to Bryce Mitchell's loss to Ilia Topuria. He argues that Mitchell is a one-dimensional wrestler with mediocre wrestling by international standards (Arkansas wrestling), while Evloev is an international-level wrestler with excellent chain wrestling and takedown setups. Angelo believes Evloev's wrestling will dominate Mitchell, as Mitchell only wrestles and will be outclassed. He dismisses Mitchell's previous success as being against lower-level competition.

Big Brady picks Evloev but is cautious about the wide odds. He notes Evloev has been taken down before (by Mike Grundy) and Mitchell has good top control. However, he trusts Evloev's scrambling, get-up game, and cardio to outwork Mitchell over three rounds. He expects Evloev to get takedowns and win a decision, though Mitchell might win the first round.

Cody sees this as a massive mismatch, with Evloev being a huge favorite. He notes that Lopes was taken down three times by Joanderson Brito on the Contender Series and had no ability to get up. Evloev has superior wrestling, striking, and cardio. He expects Evloev to dominate via wrestling and win easily, possibly by decision since he's not a big finisher.

Connor also picks Evloev, emphasizing that Lopes' style of stepping into the pocket to brawl is takedown fodder and that Evloev is a composed fighter who will exploit that. He notes that Lopes has struggled on the regional scene against good opponents and that Evloev is a terrible matchup on short notice.

The host picks Movsar Evloev, citing his well-rounded game and striking improvements. He believes Evloev's defensive grappling will keep the fight standing, where he can land significant damage. He expects Evloev to win a dominant decision and sees him as a future title contender.

Paul agrees completely, saying the only chance for Lopes is a flying knee or a sloppy takedown. He notes Lopes is tall with poor base and wild striking, making him easy to take down. Evloev should win cleanly, and Paul suggests looking at prop bets like Evloev by decision or inside distance.

The Guru picks Evloev, stating he is better in every area and won't fear Mitchell's grappling. He expects Evloev to outgrapple Mitchell, take his back, and control the fight, though it may be boring. He predicts a 29-28 decision, with Mitchell possibly having a moment in round three but Evloev winning 2-1.