UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega

Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his speed, footwork, and takedowns. He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker and wrestler, while Ortega is the better grappler. Angelo believes Volkanovski will keep the fight at range, use leg kicks, and piece up Ortega. He doesn't expect Volkanovski to shoot takedowns due to Ortega's guillotine.

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He believes Volkanovski is the better striker with superior volume and defense, and he will win the minutes of the fight. He acknowledges Ortega's danger on the ground and his power, but thinks Volkanovski can avoid submissions and outpoint him over five rounds.

Cody acknowledges Volkanovski's near-perfect UFC run, strong wrestling, cardio, and fight IQ, but is hesitant because Ortega is a worthy challenger with excellent jiu-jitsu that could neutralize Volkanovski's wrestling. He notes Ortega's striking improvements and durability, but ultimately leans Volkanovski due to his ability to find a way to win. He prefers to attack the over rounds rather than the moneyline.

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging that MMA is not a logical sport. He notes that all tape, stats, and logic point to Volkanovski winning, but Ortega has the ability to hurt and finish opponents. Levi debunks the myth that Ortega can't throw volume, citing his high strike attempts against Renato Moicano, Max Holloway, and Korean Zombie. He is worried about Volkanovski being hurt, as seen in the Max Holloway fight, but ultimately goes with the champion.

Jacob picks Volkanovski, calling him very technical. He questions whether Ortega has improved his striking, particularly his jab and check left. Jacob thinks Volkanovski will keep distance and work leg kicks. He's rooting for Ortega but expects Volkanovski to win.

The host picks Alexander Volkanovski to retain his title via decision. He believes Volkanovski is a master at executing game plans and will use feints, leg kicks, and movement to stifle Ortega. He thinks Ortega's improved striking is overrated based on the Korean Zombie fight and that Volkanovski's submission defense will keep him safe. He expects a masterful performance and a decision win.

Paul is confident in Volkanovski, citing his strength, tactical fighting, reach advantage, and ability to push Ortega off when he tries to tie up. He references Volkanovski's wins over Max Holloway and Ortega's loss to Holloway where Ortega was badly beaten. He believes Volkanovski wins by decision and likes the over due to Ortega's durability.

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski over Brian Ortega, citing Volkanovski's composure, leg kicks, and body work. He notes that Ortega is a live dog but Volkanovski has shown he can recover from being dropped. He expects Volkanovski to chop at the legs in the first two rounds, then finish with a fourth-round TKO as Ortega's mobility is compromised. He highlights Volkanovski's undefeated record at featherweight and wins over Holloway and Aldo.

Angelo picks Shevchenko, calling her one of the best fighters ever. He highlights her technical striking, grappling, and championship composure. He notes that Murphy's path to victory is narrow and that Shevchenko can win anywhere. Angelo expects a dominant performance.

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko has every advantage: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes Murphy is tough and has never been finished, but she has never faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to find a finish late in the fight.

Cody is confident Shevchenko wins anywhere the fight goes, citing her superior kickboxing, speed, footwork, and grappling. He notes Murphy's durability and never being knocked out, but believes Shevchenko's patience and skill will lead to a late stoppage, possibly becoming the first to finish Murphy. He leans over 2.5 rounds due to Murphy's toughness.

Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, stating that Lauren Murphy's toughness and durability are not enough to overcome the massive skill gap. He notes that Murphy has never been finished, but Shevchenko's technique is superior. Levi believes it would take a fluke for Murphy to win, and he expects Shevchenko to win, though he is unsure whether it will be by decision or finish.

Jacob picks Shevchenko, noting she's running out of opponents and should fight Nunes again. He praises her judo and grappling. Jacob is confident Shevchenko wins easily.

The host picks Valentina Shevchenko by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko will eventually set up the crucifix position and finish Murphy. He notes that Murphy is durable and may survive early, but Shevchenko's pressure will increase. He likes the over 2.5 rounds at even money. He thinks Murphy's takedown success will be temporary and Shevchenko will adapt.

Paul picks Shevchenko confidently, noting her dominance and the large talent gap. He mentions she could finish inside the distance but also acknowledges she can be patient. He is unsure about betting the moneyline due to the price and considers the over 2.5 rounds, but has no bet yet.

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Lauren Murphy, citing Shevchenko's vast superiority in all areas. He notes that Murphy is on a five-fight winning streak but lost her last two fights (split decisions) and is 38 years old. He expects Shevchenko to win by second-round crucifix TKO, similar to her fight against Andrade, as Murphy will likely shoot for a takedown and get reversed. He dismisses Murphy's chances entirely.

Angelo picks Diaz, defying logic. He argues that Lawler has taken years of damage in wars, while Diaz has had five years off to heal. Angelo believes Diaz's high volume and chin will be key, and he expects Diaz to overwhelm Lawler with strikes.

Big Brady picks Robbie Lawler to win, but with very low confidence. He notes that Lawler has been more active, while Diaz hasn't fought in 6.5 years and hasn't won in 9.5 years. He admits there are too many unknowns to bet this fight and is picking Lawler simply because he's the more active fighter.

Cody picks Lawler, citing Diaz's long layoff, lack of recent wins, party lifestyle, and questionable training. He notes Lawler has been consistently training and competing against top competition. He also mentions Diaz's poor timing in recent sparring footage and the weight advantage Diaz may have, but still favors Lawler's activity and wrestling.

Daniel Levi leans toward Nick Diaz, citing Robbie Lawler's decline since the Carlos Condit fight. He notes Lawler has lost to Ben Askren and Colby Covington, and his spirit seems diminished. Levi believes if Diaz doesn't fall over early, his volume and cardio in a five-round fight will be too much for Lawler. However, he acknowledges the uncertainty around Diaz's long layoff and conditioning, making this a low-confidence pick.

Jacob picks Lawler, citing his recent activity and that he hasn't been finished in his losses. He thinks Lawler will look sharper and that Diaz may struggle early after the layoff. Jacob doesn't love the pick but leans Lawler.

The host leans towards Nick Diaz by fourth-round TKO. He believes Diaz's durability and pace will be key in a five-round fight. He expects Diaz to weather Lawler's early storm and then put it on him later. He notes that both fighters have question marks and advises against betting this fight, but likes the over 2.5 rounds. He thinks Diaz's legendary chin will hold up.

Paul picks Lawler, acknowledging the uncertainty around Diaz's form and motivation. He notes Diaz hasn't won in 10 years and looked poor against Anderson Silva. He expects Lawler to be in shape and possibly use wrestling. He is interested in the weigh-ins for clues.

The MMA Guru picks Robbie Lawler over Nick Diaz, despite acknowledging the possibility of a Diaz win. He cites Diaz's six-year layoff and questionable lifestyle, while Lawler has been active and trains daily. He expects Lawler to come out explosive and finish Diaz by first-round TKO, possibly with calf kicks. He notes that Lawler sees this as a retirement opportunity and will be motivated. He also mentions that Diaz's boxing-heavy style leaves him vulnerable to leg kicks.

Angelo picks Blaydes, citing his exceptional wrestling for a heavyweight, with fast entries and relentless top control. He notes that Rozenstruik is a heavy-handed counter-striker but struggles when pressured. Angelo acknowledges the risk of Blaydes getting knocked out again but believes he only needs three takedowns to win.

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers. Blaydes is a superior wrestler with great ground-and-pound, and Brady expects him to take Rozenstruik down and finish him. He acknowledges the heavyweight power threat but is confident in Blaydes.

Cody likes Blaydes' wrestling and cardio but is nervous about his history of getting knocked out by power punchers. He thinks Blaydes will grind out a decision, as Rozenstruik is durable but not likely to be finished by Blaydes. He prefers Blaydes by decision at +200 or Rozenstruik by KO at +400.

Daniel Levi leans with Curtis Blaydes, expecting him to attempt more takedowns than in his last fight against Derrick Lewis (0 for 3). He notes that Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and get-up game, but also has knockout power. Levi is concerned about Blaydes' chin and the fact that he got knocked out by Lewis. He believes if Blaydes gets takedowns, he will maul Rozenstruik, but if not, Rozenstruik could catch him.

Jacob picks Blaydes, expecting a copy-paste of the Derrick Lewis fight. He notes Blaydes has bounced back from knockouts before and is level-headed. Jacob believes Blaydes will get takedowns and control the fight, making it boring but effective.

The host picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round TKO. He believes Blaydes will take Rozenstruik down and finish him on the ground. He notes that Blaydes learned from the Lewis fight and will shoot to the correct side. He thinks Rozenstruik's takedown defense is not good enough and that Blaydes' wrestling pedigree will be decisive. He also mentions a submission prop as a sprinkle.

Paul picks Blaydes but is nervous about the price, noting Blaydes' history of getting knocked out. He thinks Blaydes' wrestling will be effective in a three-round fight and expects him to win, but considers Rozenstruik's power a threat. He mentions Blaydes by decision as a possible play.

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, citing Blaydes' wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Rozenstruik is not in great shape and has poor takedown defense. He expects Blaydes to mix in takedowns with striking, take Rozenstruik down, and pound him out for a second-round TKO. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Blaydes wins nine times out of ten.

Angelo picks Andrade, noting her power, bullying style, and that her losses are only to champions. He believes Andrade's strength and aggression will overwhelm Calvillo, who is more technical but lacks power. Angelo thinks Andrade will bully Calvillo and win.

Big Brady picks Jéssica Andrade to win by decision. He believes Andrade is the better striker with more power and volume, and she should stuff Calvillo's takedowns. He notes Andrade has fought much better competition and expects a dominant performance.

Cody is confident Andrade wins, citing her superior strength, pressure, and well-rounded skills. He thinks she will finish Calvillo, who has never been finished in MMA but has shown vulnerabilities. He likes Andrade inside the distance at +150.

Daniel Levi picks Jéssica Andrade, acknowledging her power and history of knockouts in the women's divisions. He notes that Andrade's power can override technique, but he questions her motivation after losing two title fights. He respects Cynthia Calvillo's ground game and toughness, but believes if Andrade is mentally focused, she will win. He expresses concern about a potential title-fight letdown.

Jacob picks Calvillo, seeing value at +220. He thinks Calvillo can out-tough Andrade and threaten submissions. Jacob notes that Andrade may not be able to bully Calvillo at flyweight. He admits he doesn't think Calvillo will dominate but sees a path to victory.

The host picks Jéssica Andrade via decision. He believes Andrade will march forward, land big shots, and stop takedowns. He thinks Calvillo's wrestling is not good enough to take Andrade down repeatedly. He notes that Andrade has a power advantage and will do damage, but Calvillo is durable. He expects the fight to take place mostly on the feet where Andrade has the edge.

Paul is confident Andrade wins, calling her a 'body snatcher' and noting her power and durability. He acknowledges Calvillo's path to victory via wrestling but doubts she can impose her will. He expects Andrade to dominate.

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade over Cynthia Calvillo, citing Andrade's superior striking and grappling. He notes that Calvillo has no finishing ability and cannot keep Andrade down. He expects Andrade to win a decision, possibly with a late-round finish, as she builds momentum. He mentions that Andrade is younger and has fought for titles, while Calvillo couldn't crack the top 10 at strawweight.

Angelo picks Dvalishvili, citing his relentless chain wrestling, great conditioning, and ability to pressure Moraes. He notes that Moraes struggles when backed up and needs to plant his feet to generate power. Angelo believes Dvalishvili's wrestling will be too much, similar to how Rob Font beat Moraes.

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He notes that Moraes is dangerous in the first round but has a poor gas tank, while Dvalishvili pushes a high pace and has many decision wins. He believes Dvalishvili will survive the first round, take over, and drown Moraes with pressure.

Cody picks Dvalishvili by decision, citing his endless gas tank, pressure, and grinding style. He notes Moraes' recent knockout losses and questionable chin, but respects his early power. He thinks Dvalishvili will wear him down and win a decision, possibly a late finish.

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing Marlon Moraes' decline since the Henry Cejudo fight. He notes Moraes' chin issues and tendency to fade after the first round. Levi believes Dvalishvili's relentless pace and takedown volume will overwhelm Moraes, who has been finished in recent fights. He also mentions that Moraes needs an early finish to win, but Dvalishvili's cardio is a major advantage.

Jacob picks Dvalishvili, agreeing that Moraes' game plan won't stop Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling. He expects a TKO finish. Jacob is surprised Dvalishvili is such a big favorite but thinks it's justified.

The host leans towards Nasrat Haqparast by first-round knockout. He believes Hooker is damaged goods from his recent wars and that Haqparast's power could find his chin. He notes that Hooker is more skilled but Haqparast is explosive and can close distance. He is concerned about out-of-cage issues for both fighters but thinks it could increase the violence. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet.

Paul picks Dvalishvili but is hesitant due to Moraes' early power. He thinks Moraes will look good early and prefers a live betting approach. He expects Dvalishvili to win via late finish or decision, but wants to see if he survives the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Marlon Moraes, citing Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes that Moraes has chin issues and poor cardio, which will be exposed in a high-scramble grappling match. He expects Dvalishvili to take Moraes down repeatedly, eventually securing an arm triangle submission in the third round. He acknowledges Moraes' guillotine threat but believes Dvalishvili's pace will be too much.

Angelo picks Haqparast, believing Hooker has peaked and taken too much damage. He notes Hooker's recent wars and knockout loss to Chandler, and his visa issues affecting preparation. Angelo thinks Haqparast has better chin durability and power, and he already placed a moneyline bet at plus money.

Big Brady picks Dan Hooker to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to major red flags. Hooker had visa issues and will arrive in Vegas on Thursday night, then cut weight Friday morning after a 20-hour flight. Brady notes Hooker has fought much better competition and is the more well-rounded fighter, but the travel and weight cut are huge concerns.

Cody picks Hooker, citing his durability, technical striking, and fast starts. He notes Haqparast's slow starts and that Hooker excels in three-round fights. He also mentions Haqparast's step-up loss to Dober and unimpressive wins. He expects Hooker to win a decision or late TKO.

Daniel Levi picks Nasrat Haqparast, citing the cumulative damage Dan Hooker has absorbed throughout his career. He notes Hooker's high strike absorption in fights against Maximo Blanco, Edson Barboza, Paul Felder, and Dustin Poirier, and his first-round KO loss to Michael Chandler. Levi believes Hooker's iron jaw may be fading and that Haqparast's youth and power left hand can capitalize. He sees value in the underdog line.

Jacob picks Haqparast, citing Hooker's chin issues after recent wars and the long flight from New Zealand. He notes Haqparast's chin has held up since his flash knockout loss. Jacob sees great value at $7,500 and plus money.

The host picks Merab Dvalishvili via decision. He believes Moraes' best path is a first-round KO, but after that, Dvalishvili's pace and pressure will take over. He notes that Dvalishvili has a long winning streak and his style is difficult to keep up with. He suggests a double chance prop (KO or decision) for Dvalishvili for best value.

Paul picks Hooker, citing his durability and technical skill, and notes Haqparast's visa issues. He acknowledges Hooker's recent KO loss to Chandler but believes Hooker's chin is still solid. He thinks Hooker's experience and strength of schedule give him the edge.

The MMA Guru picks Dan Hooker over Nasrat Haqparast, despite Hooker's short-notice travel and weight cut. He believes Hooker's size and reach advantage will be key, and that Haqparast's wins haven't aged well. He predicts a second-round TKO via a knee up the middle, as Haqparast dips his head in combinations. He also notes that both fighters have personal distractions, but Hooker's competition level is higher.

Angelo picks Daukaus, citing his speed, technical boxing, and combination striking. He notes that Abdurakhimov has more power but is less clean and hasn't fought in two years. Angelo believes Daukaus will use his speed and angles to put Abdurakhimov away, though he acknowledges the unknown of Daukaus' takedown defense.

Big Brady picks Chris Daukaus to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Shamil Abdurakhimov is 40 years old, has a two-year layoff, and has health issues, while Daukaus has improved significantly and has power. He believes Daukaus will stuff takedowns and land a knockout.

Cody picks Daukaus, citing his speed advantage, youth, and recent improvements. He notes Abdurakhimov is 40, hasn't fought in two years, and was throttled by Blaydes. He expects Daukaus to finish him, possibly inside the distance.

Daniel Levi picks Chris Daukaus, citing his fast hands for a heavyweight and his black belt in jiu-jitsu. He notes that Daukaus has finished opponents quickly but has been finished himself when fights go past the first round. Levi is curious to see how Daukaus handles the second round but believes his speed and momentum will be enough against Shamil Abdurakhimov, who has been out for a while.

Jacob picks Daukaus, calling him a real deal heavyweight prospect. He notes that Abdurakhimov's wrestling is not effective and that Daukaus has a ton of first-round finishes. Jacob believes this is a setup win for Daukaus and expects a finish.

The host picks Chris Daukaus by first-round knockout. He believes Daukaus' striking is improving fight by fight and his speed and movement will keep Abdurakhimov at bay. He expects Daukaus to land crisp straight shots down the middle and eventually find the knockout blow. He notes that Abdurakhimov has the grappling advantage but Daukaus' striking is too good to fade.

Paul picks Daukaus, noting his speed, boxing advantage, and youth. He mentions Abdurakhimov's age, layoff, and recent loss. He expects Daukaus to win but is unsure about the over/under rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Chris Daukaus over Shamil Abdurakhimov, citing Daukaus' speed and power, and Abdurakhimov's two-year layoff and history of being knocked out. He notes that Daukaus showed good takedown defense against Alexei Oleinik and is a fast starter. He expects Abdurakhimov to be hesitant early due to ring rust, and Daukaus to land a counter blow and finish with a TKO in the first round.

Angelo picks Santos, highlighting her athleticism, boxing, and fight IQ. He notes she can adjust game plans, as seen in her fight against Molly McCann where she took her down five times. Angelo believes Santos is better everywhere and will cruise to a decision, as Modafferi is tough to finish.

Big Brady picks Taila Santos to win by dominant decision. He emphasizes that Santos is a completely different fighter from her debut, having dominated Molly McCann and Gillian Robertson. He sees Santos as younger, stronger, and better everywhere, with no clear path to victory for Modafferi. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on Santos' first fight.

Cody leans towards Modafferi as a value play, noting her durability, grit, and history of cashing as an underdog. He acknowledges Santos' strength and crisp striking but questions her cardio and the wide price. He is hesitant due to Modafferi's age and torn meniscus.

Daniel Levi picks Taila Santos but is hesitant due to her previous performance against Mara Borella where she refused to throw. He notes that Santos should win dominantly but is concerned about her tendency to freeze, especially with fans returning. He respects Roxanne Modafferi's toughness and ability to upset, but believes Santos is the superior fighter. He advises against betting the -400 line.

Jacob picks Modafferi by submission, following her pattern of alternating wins and losses. He feels this is a fight where Modafferi shouldn't win but will find a way. He notes Santos lacks killer instinct and thinks a weird scramble could lead to a submission.

The host picks Taila Santos to win via decision. He believes Santos is a much better striker with improving takedown defense and get-up ability. He expects Santos to pick Modafferi apart from distance and pass her takedown defense test. He notes Modafferi's durability but thinks Santos is on the ascent while Modafferi is on the decline.

Paul does not have a clear pick. He finds Santos' price too high and is wary of Modafferi's injury and age. He considers Modafferi at plus money but is not confident. He will watch weigh-ins before deciding.

The MMA Guru picks Taila Santos over Roxanne Modafferi, citing Modafferi's age and lack of improvement. He notes that Santos is young, well-rounded, and has a good ground game, which should prevent Modafferi from laying in half guard. He expects Santos to win a unanimous decision, as Modafferi is tough but not skilled enough. He mentions that Santos' win over Molly McCann looks better now, and that Modafferi has over 40 fights but still looks lost.

Angelo picks Medić, citing his power, striking technique, and killer instinct. He acknowledges the lack of information on Medić's ability to handle adversity but believes his pressure and kicks will overcome Turner's technique. Angelo calls Medić his 'new guy' and predicts he'll be a future champion.

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner to win by second-round submission. He believes Turner is more well-rounded, has fought better competition, and has a path to victory via takedowns and ground game. He notes that Medić has never been past the second round and has shown poor takedown defense. However, he acknowledges Medić could knock Turner out early.

Cody leans towards Turner, citing his reach advantage, cleaner striking, and experience going rounds. He notes Medić has never fought past the first round and questions his cardio. He thinks Turner could win if he survives the early onslaught.

Daniel Levi picks Uroš Medić, believing he can expose Jalin Turner's chin issues. He notes that Medić has power and trains at Kings MMA with Beneil Dariush, which should level up his game. Levi is concerned about Turner's history of being knocked out and thinks Medić's power will be the difference, though he acknowledges the question of what happens if the fight goes past the first round.

Jacob picks Medić, admitting he previously discounted him but has learned his lesson. He notes Turner's experience but believes Medić's dominance and finishing ability are too much. Jacob thinks the odds are fair and that Medić will win impressively.

The host picks Jalin Turner by second-round submission. He believes Turner has the advantage on the ground with long, gangly arms good for chokes. He expects Medić to come out strong but slow down, allowing Turner to survive the early onslaught and get his grappling going. He notes that Medić's grappling looks suspect when pushed later in fights and that Turner is better than his record indicates.

Paul does not have a clear pick. He considers the under 2.5 rounds due to Medić's finishing ability and Turner's history of being knocked out. He thinks it's a low-priority fight and prefers live betting.

The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić over Jalin Turner, impressed by Medić's ease in finishing opponents. He notes that Turner is a huge lightweight who has been knocked out four times in his career and is draining himself to make weight. He expects Medić's speed and power to be too much, predicting a first-round TKO. He references Medić's last fight against Aalon Cruz, where he landed a close-range hook to put him down.

Angelo picks Brundage (referred to as Carl Robertson in transcript), citing his UFC experience and solid skills. He notes that Maximov's undefeated record is hollow, with five wins against losing records. Angelo believes Brundage's takedown defense and well-rounded game will be enough, but he's not confident due to Maximov's BJJ threat.

Big Brady picks Cody Brundage (referred to as Carl Roberson) to win by decision. He notes that Brundage has fought much better competition and has a massive striking advantage, while Maximov is one-dimensional and has faced low-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Brundage has been submitted in all his losses, and Maximov is a grappler who could exploit that.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

Daniel Levi picks Nick Maximov, citing his toughness shown in the Contender Series fight where he grappled a much larger opponent. He contrasts Maximov's grit with Cody Brundage's tendency to quit when takedowns aren't working, as seen in his Contender Series fight. Levi believes Maximov's jiu-jitsu will be the difference, though he acknowledges Brundage's wrestling could pose a challenge.

Jacob has no clear pick, calling it a coin toss. He notes that if Brundage can keep his back off the mat, he'll win, but if Maximov gets him down, he's in trouble. Jacob is staying away from betting due to too many unknowns.

The host picks Nick Maximov by submission in the third round. He expects Brundage to implement his wrestling early but eventually gas out, allowing Maximov to hit reversals or a submission off his back. He notes that Maximov has been squashing regional competition but this is his toughest test. He is hesitant due to the short notice nature and limited props available.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

The MMA Guru picks Nick Maximov over Cody Brundage, citing Maximov's grappling pedigree and Brundage's repeated submission losses. He notes that Brundage has been submitted in most of his losses, including by Brendan Allen, Marvin Vettori, and Glover Teixeira. He highlights Maximov's win on the Contender Series against a much larger opponent, showing his grappling ability. He predicts a first-round submission, specifically an arm triangle, as Brundage's takedown defense is poor.

Angelo picks Semelsberger, noting his aggressive striking and leg kicks. He points out that Sano hasn't fought in five years and is not UFC caliber, calling the fight a 'favor to Nick Diaz.' Angelo expects Semelsberger to win easily, though he won't bet the moneyline at -400.

Big Brady picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by second-round knockout. He is very low on Martin Sano Jr., citing a 4.5-year layoff, poor takedown defense, bad cardio, and unimpressive striking. He believes Semelsberger should dominate, though he acknowledges some uncertainty due to Sano's long layoff.

Cody is confident Semelsberger wins, citing his size, strength, and wrestling. He notes Sano hasn't won a fight in years, has poor wrestling, and is only on the card due to his connection to Nick Diaz. He expects Semelsberger to dominate but warns against the heavy price.

Daniel Levi picks Matthew Semelsberger, noting that he is the more physical fighter with better competition. He dismisses Martin Sano's win over Jeff Neal as occurring when Neal was green. Levi expects Semelsberger to win, likely by knockout, and mentions the line opened at -160 but moved to -500, which he finds interesting but still favors Semelsberger.

Jacob agrees Semelsberger will win, but he's interested in how Sano looks after the layoff. He notes that if Sano looks sharp, it could indicate Nick Diaz is also well-prepared. Jacob picks Semelsberger but will watch Sano's performance for future bets on Diaz.

The host picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by KO, specifically in the second round. He believes Semelsberger is the much better fighter and can win any way he wants unless he gets knocked out early. He notes Semelsberger's power and durability, referencing his ability to withstand damage from Chaos Williams. He thinks Sano is a brawler with a KO-or-bust style and will be in trouble if he doesn't finish early.

Paul picks Semelsberger, noting Sano's long layoff and lack of wins. He thinks Semelsberger is the clear favorite but the price is too high to bet. He expects Semelsberger to win but won't bet at -490.

The MMA Guru is very confident in Matthew Semelsberger, calling the fight one-sided. He criticizes Martin Sano Jr. as being in the UFC only because he is Nate Diaz's friend, noting his 4-2-1 record and three-year layoff. He expects Semelsberger to win by first-round KO, as he took shots well against Chaos Williams and has a great win over Jason Witt. He mentions that only 2% of people on Tapology pick Sano, implying the odds are heavily in Semelsberger's favor.

Angelo picks Omar Morales, citing his strong kickboxing, solid takedown defense, and forward pressure. He notes that Morales' only loss is to Giga Chikadze, which looks better after Giga's recent win. Angelo believes Morales' striking and ability to control the cage will be key, and he expects a stoppage win.

Big Brady picks Omar Morales to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Jonathan Pierce is very hittable and relies on his chin, while Morales has good takedown defense and is a black belt in BJJ. He believes Morales can take advantage of Pierce's sloppy striking and potentially finish him early, though he acknowledges Pierce's cardio could be a factor if the fight goes longer.

Cody picks Pearce as an underdog, citing his volume, pace, cardio, and wrestling. He notes Morales' low output and questions his power at UFC level. He worries about Morales' calf kicks but believes Pearce's pressure will overwhelm Morales over three rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Omar Morales because he believes Morales can slow the pace and fight at his own methodical rhythm. He notes that Jonathan Pearce absorbs too many strikes (upwards of seven per minute) and that Morales has a solid wrestling base and is in his prime at 35. Levi also mentions that Morales addressed medical issues that held him back previously, and expects a finish or decision win.

Jacob picks Jonathan Pearce, citing his wrestling, pace, and a quote from Pearce: 'I've never seen a striker out wrestle a wrestler.' Jacob believes Pearce will get takedowns and wear down Omar Morales. He also notes that Pearce has already beaten Morales once before.

The host believes Omar Morales will win via decision. He thinks Morales has a much more hard-nosed striking style that will march down Jonathan Pierce. He expects Pierce to struggle to close the distance and land takedowns due to the heavy onslaught from Morales. He notes that Pierce's grappling success is necessary for him to win, but he doubts Pierce can break Morales.

Paul does not have a clear pick. He is staying away from this fight, noting he has been burned by Pearce before (the Joe Lauzon loss). He respects others who like Morales but has no edge.

The MMA Guru picks Omar Morales over Jonathan Pearce, citing Morales' composed striking and takedown defense. He notes that Morales' only loss is to Giga Chikadze, which has aged well, and that Pearce, while looking good against Kaikamaka, is not at Morales' level. He expects Morales to win a unanimous decision, as he doesn't see the fight hitting the ground and believes Morales is a more versatile and dangerous striker.