UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez

Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.

Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.

Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.

Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.

Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.

The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her power, takedown defense, and volume. He believes Waterson's stick-and-move style won't be enough, as she failed against Marina Rodriguez. He suggests Lemos is safe for parlays.

Big Brady picks Amanda Lemos to win by decision. He notes that Lemos is the biggest favorite on the card and should land the harder shots with higher volume. He expresses concern about Lemos's cardio, as she has slowed down in past fights, but thinks she can outwork Waterson over three rounds. He also mentions that if the fight is at flyweight, it favors Lemos even more. He does not recommend betting at -300 odds.

Cody sees Waterson as a clear underdog value, noting she has never been knocked out and has gone the distance with elite competition. He points out that Lemos' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Waterson's mobility and conditioning will allow her to outpoint Lemos. He also mentions Waterson's recent shape from The Challenge and her plus 270 price.

Daniel Levi leans Amanda Lemos but is not confident due to the high price. He notes Lemos has power that can overcome Waterson's technique, but Waterson has opportunistic submissions and cardio advantages late. He sees Lemos winning early via impact, but considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the heavy chalk.

Paul argues that Lemos' competition has been weak and that Waterson has fought a higher level of opposition, including five-round fights. He notes Waterson's durability and ability to make fights close, and believes the fight will go to decision with Waterson winning a close one. He also mentions that Lemos' power is her only real threat, but Waterson's chin and cardio should hold up.

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Lemos over Michelle Waterson, emphasizing Lemos's power advantage. He notes Waterson's struggles against power punchers like Marina Rodriguez and her age (36) and accumulated damage. He predicts Lemos will hurt Waterson early and win the first two rounds, with Waterson possibly rallying in the third.

Angelo picks Muslim Salikhov confidently, citing his technical striking, power, and takedown threats. He dismisses Li Jingliang as overrated and notes Salikhov's win over Trinaldo. He placed a moneyline bet at -170 and hopes for line movement.

Big Brady picks Li Jingliang (the Leech) to win by decision, taking the underdog. He notes that Salikhov is a great striker but has low volume and poor cardio, while Li has better cardio and volume. He thinks Li can take over as the fight goes on and possibly mix in takedowns. He admits it's a tough fight to pick and has low confidence.

Cody is leaning towards Li Jingliang as an underdog, citing Salikhov's low volume, questionable cardio, and history of pulling out of fights. He notes that Li has never been knocked out in the UFC and brings a high pace that could overwhelm Salikhov. However, he admits he doesn't have high confidence and acknowledges Salikhov's path to victory via takedowns.

Daniel Levi leans Muslim Salikhov, citing his discipline, counter-striking, and improved wrestling. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and durability but believes Salikhov can win a decision by pacing himself and avoiding brawls. Levi notes Salikhov must be careful of Li's power and that the fight is high variance.

Paul picks Salikhov, believing he can mix in takedowns to exploit Li's ground game, as seen in Li's losses to Khamzat Chimaev and others. He notes Salikhov's striking is excellent and that he has shown the ability to take down opponents like Francisco Trinaldo. Paul thinks Salikhov's path to victory is clear and that he covers the -160 price.

The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang over Muslim Salikhov, citing Li's power, chin, and cardio advantage. He notes Salikhov's age (38) and unimpressive recent performances, including a close fight with Francisco Trinaldo. He believes Li's unorthodox striking and durability will lead to a decision win or a late finish.

Angelo picks Sumudaerji, citing his forward pressure and volume. He notes Schnell's counter-striking and BJJ, but believes Sumudaerji's style will impose itself. He thinks the fight should be closer than the odds suggest and considers a plus 3.5 bet on Schnell.

Big Brady picks Sumudaerji to win by knockout, likely in the second round. He states that Sumudaerji is the better striker and more durable, while Schnell has been knocked out multiple times. He notes that Schnell could win if he wrestles, but he doesn't expect Schnell to do so. He predicts a knockout finish.

Cody picks Schnell as an underdog, arguing that Sumudaerji's four losses are all by submission and he has not faced a grappler since his debut. He notes Schnell's improved chin and grappling, including submissions off his back. Cody believes if the fight hits the ground, Schnell has a big advantage, and the -270 line on Sumudaerji is too high given his unproven ground game.

Daniel Levi picks Sumudaerji, viewing it as a prospect test. He notes Sumudaerji's talent and improvements after a long layoff, while Schnell has durability issues and has been knocked out before. Levi expects Sumudaerji to win, possibly by finish, but acknowledges Schnell's guillotine threat and the question of Sumudaerji's ceiling.

Paul picks Sumudaerji, believing his power and striking will be too much for Schnell's suspect chin. He notes that Sumudaerji has knocked out opponents quickly and that Schnell has been knocked out multiple times. However, he admits the -270 line is steep and that he is not betting it himself, but he expects Sumudaerji to win by KO in the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji over Matt Schnell, citing Schnell's weak chin and poor submission defense. He notes Sumudaerji's elusiveness and range, and believes he will TKO Schnell in the second round. He also mentions Schnell's recent loss to Brandon Royval and his tendency to get finished in spectacular fashion.

Angelo picks Shane Burgos, citing his pressure, volume, and body work. He acknowledges Jourdain's power and chin, but believes Burgos's insane output (232 strikes in last fight) will be the difference. He notes the odds are wider than expected and expects a close fight.

Big Brady picks Shane Burgos to win by decision. He highlights Burgos's volume (almost 8 significant strikes per minute) and a 6.5-inch reach advantage as key factors. He acknowledges Burgos's poor striking defense and reliance on his chin, but believes Burgos's skill and volume will outwork Jourdain. He expects a war but thinks Burgos wins on the scorecards.

Cody picks Burgos, citing his high volume and experience against elite competition. He notes that Burgos lands a massive number of significant strikes and has fought top featherweights, while Jourdain's wins are over lower-level opponents. Cody acknowledges Burgos' chin issues but believes his forward pressure and output will overwhelm Jourdain.

Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, believing Burgos is slightly ahead of Jourdain at this stage. He praises Burgos's boxing, pressure, and durability, but notes his defensive flaws and tendency to fight with his hands down. Levi thinks Jourdain is improving but not ready yet, and expects Burgos to win via pressure and pocket boxing.

Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Burgos' volume and durability will be key. He notes that Burgos has fought and performed well against top-tier opponents, while Jourdain's resume is less impressive. Paul expects a high-paced war but believes Burgos' experience and output will carry him to victory.

The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Charles Jourdain, citing Burgos's durability and Jourdain's tendency to fade. He references Jourdain's loss to Julian Erosa, who walked him down, and believes Burgos's chin and pressure will be too much. He predicts Burgos will finish Jourdain by TKO in the third round with body shots and ground-and-pound.

Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.

Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.

Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.

Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.

Angelo picks Dalcha Lungiambula, citing his power, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Soriano's poor takedown defense and that Lungiambula looked great in his last fight before a bad decision. He placed a half-unit moneyline bet and plans an inside the distance decision no action bet.

Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by decision. He notes that both fighters have poor cardio, but Soriano's is slightly better. He thinks Soriano wins the first round and may take over later. He mentions that Soriano has better finishing ability but expects the fight to go to decision due to both fighters' durability. He does not recommend betting Soriano at -275.

Cody picks Soriano but with low confidence, noting that both fighters are untrustworthy. He acknowledges Soriano's durability and power, but also his poor wrestling and cardio. He believes Soriano's chin and training at a world-class gym give him an edge, but he won't bet this fight.

Daniel Levi leans Punahele Soriano but is not confident at the -225 price. He notes both fighters have knockout power and that Soriano is cleaner and more well-rounded, but Lungiambula is dangerous. He considers it closer than the odds suggest and wants more info on sparring sessions before committing.

Paul also picks Soriano but with hesitation, citing Lungiambula's tendency to gas out and make mistakes. He notes that Soriano has a good chin and has shown improvement. However, he agrees the -240 price is too steep and will not bet it.

The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano over Dalcha Lungiambula, citing Soriano's toughness and power. He notes Lungiambula's poor cardio and that Soriano is difficult to finish. He predicts Soriano will catch Lungiambula with body shots and knees in the clinch, leading to a second-round TKO.

Angelo picks Bill Algeo confidently, citing Algeo's pressure, wrestling defense, and BJJ black belt to neutralize Burns' grappling. He notes Burns' two-year layoff and Algeo's impressive win over Joe Anderson Brito. He has a moneyline bet on Algeo at -160.

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an elite get-up game and a black belt in BJJ, making him hard to hold down. He thinks Burns's cardio will fade after the first round, allowing Algeo to take over on the feet. He mentions a late finish is possible if Burns gasses.

Cody picks Algeo but dislikes the -205 price. He argues that Burns has a terrible gas tank and will fade after the first round, while Algeo has high output and good submission defense. He expects Algeo to survive early takedowns and then overwhelm Burns in later rounds.

Daniel Levi does not make a clear pick, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Algeo's takedown defense issues and Burns's submission threat, but also Burns's cardio and weight cut concerns. He sees Algeo winning the later rounds if he survives, but the -200 price on Algeo is too high for his liking.

Paul also picks Algeo but is not confident, noting that Algeo's takedown defense is poor and Burns is physically strong. He believes Burns will take Algeo down early, but Algeo's BJJ black belt and cardio should allow him to survive and win later rounds. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Herbert Burns, noting Burns' tendency to fade after the second round and Algeo's durability. He mentions Algeo's solid chin and ability to take big shots, as seen in fights against Joe Anderson Brito and Spike Carlyle. He predicts Algeo will survive early rounds and dominate later, winning by decision (29-28 or 29-27).

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby but is worried about Da Woon Jung's wrestling. He believes Jacoby's leg kicks will be the difference, slowing Jung down and allowing Jacoby to work his striking. He acknowledges Jung's impressive grappling and unbeaten streak, making this a tough pick.

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision. He favors Jacoby's volume and striking over Jung's power. He notes that Jung's takedown game is overrated, as he only showed it against William Knight. He thinks Jacoby's get-up game will neutralize takedowns and that Jacoby will outwork Jung over three rounds.

Cody leans towards Jung as a slight underdog, citing his power and wrestling as x-factors. He notes that Jacoby has holes in his game, including questionable chin and takedown defense. Cody believes Jung could exploit these with his power or takedowns, but he is not confident enough to bet.

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Jacoby, but jokingly notes he is wrong on every Da Woon Jung fight, so picking Jacoby means Jung will win. He praises Jacoby's kickboxing background and ability to overcome adversity, while noting Jung's power and length. He expects Jacoby to outwork Jung down the stretch to a decision.

Paul also leans towards Jung, noting his power and the fact that Jacoby has been taken down and hurt in past fights. He mentions Jung's win over Kennedy Nzechukwu and his ability to finish fights. However, he is not confident and calls it a dogger pass.

The MMA Guru picks Da Woon Jung as an underdog over Dustin Jacoby, citing Jung's grappling ability and power. He notes Jung's win over William Knight, where he dominated grappling exchanges, and believes Jung's takedown threat will neutralize Jacoby's kicking game. He also mentions Jacoby's close fights and age (34) as concerns, while Jung is younger (28) and improving rapidly.

Angelo picks Dwight Grant as the overall better fighter, but is hesitant due to Grant's chin and cardio issues, and Stoltzfus's power. He notes both fighters have flaws and advises against betting due to too many traps.

Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He notes that Grant is hit-or-miss and hard to predict. He thinks Grant's takedown defense and striking should be enough to outpoint Stoltzfus, who is a grappler but may not be able to get the fight down. He mentions Grant is moving up a weight class, which is a concern.

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a slight underdog, citing his policy of fading Dwight Grant as a favorite. He notes Grant's low output, poor cardio, and tendency to lose close fights. He believes Stoltzfus can take Grant down and grind out a win, but he is not betting it.

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Stoltzfus for the upset, believing he is better across the board. He notes Grant's low output, age, and recent decline, while Stoltzfus's 0-3 UFC start was against grapplers, not strikers like Grant. He expects Stoltzfus to land takedowns and possibly get a submission, and considers betting him at underdog odds.

Paul also picks Stoltzfus, arguing that Grant's power will be less effective at 185 and that Stoltzfus has better grappling. He notes that Grant has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Stoltzfus can exploit that. However, he calls it a dogger pass and won't bet it.

The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant over Dustin Stoltzfus, emphasizing Grant's power advantage and tougher division background. He criticizes Stoltzfus's lack of impressive wins, noting losses to Kyle Daukaus and Rodolfo Vieira, and believes Grant's size and reach will be decisive. He predicts a KO victory for Grant, as Stoltzfus has been finished in kickboxing and Grant's power exceeds that of Stoltzfus's previous opponents.

Angelo picks Emily Ducote but is hesitant due to a five-week trend of underdogs winning the first fight of the night. He notes Ducote's patient, accurate striking and wrestling, but acknowledges Penne's experience and the risk of a bad decision. He advises against betting on this fight.

Big Brady picks Emily Ducote to win by decision. He notes that Ducote is 11 years younger, has good takedown defense, and should be the better striker on the feet. He thinks she can stuff Penne's takedowns and outpoint her for three rounds. He warns that if Penne gets the fight to the mat, she could submit Ducote, but he expects Ducote to keep it standing.

Cody is confident in Ducote, citing her wrestling background, BJJ black belt, and well-rounded game. He notes that Penne is 39 and relies on takedowns, but Ducote has the grappling to defend and the striking to win on the feet. He believes Ducote has multiple paths to victory and is a good price at -150.

Daniel Levi leans Emily Ducote, noting she is experienced and has paid her dues. He expects a close fight where Ducote lands better strikes and gets top control, but must be careful of Penne's submissions. He sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and predicts a close decision.

Paul also picks Ducote, agreeing that she is the better fighter in all aspects. He notes her youth, experience, and recent improvements. He believes Penne's magic is running out and that Ducote will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Jessica Penne, citing Ducote's power as a key advantage in the women's division. He notes that Ducote finished Danielle Taylor, who beat Penne by decision, and that Penne doesn't know how to fight. He acknowledges the unpredictability of women's MMA but sides with Ducote's power, believing it will impact judges' scorecards even if she is outlanded.