Payton Talbott

Angelo picks Payton Talbott, acknowledging Henry Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but believing Cejudo is too old and past his prime. He notes that Talbott is much larger, athletic, and has improved his wrestling since the Hani Barcelos fight. Angelo expects Talbott to use his size and speed to overwhelm Cejudo, despite his personal admiration for Cejudo.

Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, noting Cejudo's retirement talk, lack of recent wins, and decline. He highlights Talbott's improvements in takedown defense and scrambling after the Barcelos fight. He expects Talbott to win by third-round knockout.

Cody is hesitant but picks Talbott, noting that Cejudo's recent fights show he doesn't wrestle enough. He points out that Cejudo's takedown attempts have declined and he relies on striking, where Talbott has a reach advantage. He mentions that Talbott's wrestling looked improved against Felipe Lima. He is tempted by Cejudo's dog odds but doesn't trust him to wrestle.

Connor picks Talbott, arguing that Cejudo doesn't want to wrestle and will likely revert to his preferred striking. He notes that Talbott has shown improvement in defensive wrestling since the Barcelos fight, and his pressure-volume style is effective. Connor believes Cejudo can hit takedowns but doubts his ability to stick with a wrestling-heavy game plan, especially at 38. He sees Talbott as a younger, more dynamic striker who understands pace and pressure.

Daniel picks Talbott, citing Cejudo's age (38), size disadvantage (5'4 vs 5'10), and decline since retirement. He expects Cejudo to have early success but fade, while Talbott's power and athleticism will take over. He notes Talbott's learning from his first loss and improved confidence.

Lucrative James believes Henry Cejudo is not fully committed to MMA, citing his content creation and retirement talk. He thinks Talbott's relentless pressure and body work will wear down Cejudo, especially in rounds 2 and 3. He notes Talbott's presence and striking flow are exceptional and predicts a round 3 stoppage or decision win.

The host expects the fight to be more competitive than the -255 odds suggest but still picks Talbott to land more effective damage and do enough defensive grappling to keep Cejudo from grinding. He predicts a decision win for Talbott.

Paul picks Talbott, echoing Cody's concerns about Cejudo's wrestling. He notes that Cejudo's best wins came against older or smaller opponents and that he hasn't knocked anyone out since 2020. He believes Talbott's length and accuracy will cause problems for Cejudo, who is reluctant to shoot takedowns. He thinks Talbott wins by decision or TKO.

The Guru picks Henry Cejudo as a +230 underdog over Payton Talbott. He believes Talbott is being pushed too fast and Cejudo's experience and chin will be too much. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision win for Cejudo.

Angelo picks Felipe Lima because he believes Lima is a better all-around fighter than Payton Talbott, with superior grappling and the ability to mix striking and takedowns. He notes that Talbott's takedown defense was exposed in his last fight, and Lima has better wins in the UFC. He disagrees with the odds, saying both are even prospects and the line should be closer, but he still favors Lima.

Big Brady identifies a clear hole in Payton Talbott's game: his wrestling and ground defense, as seen in the Barcelos fight where he was taken down repeatedly. He notes that Felipe Lima is well-rounded and a high-level grappler who can take Talbott down and control him. Brady believes Lima will use his wrestling advantage to secure a decision win, as Talbott's striking is good but Lima can hang on the feet and then dominate on the mat.

Connor picks Talbott but acknowledges the risk. He believes Talbott is a special striker with a deep understanding of pace and pressure, and that he will likely land big shots early. However, he notes that Lima is incredibly durable and mentally resilient, and that Talbott has shown vulnerability to wrestling and grinding fights. He thinks this is reckless matchmaking for Talbott after his loss.

The host considers Lima a higher-level prospect than Talbott, expecting Lima to touch him up with combinations and takedown attempts, grinding out a decision win.

The host picks Felipe Lima, arguing that Talbott's wins have aged poorly and that Lima is more well-rounded. He criticizes Talbott's head movement and ground defense, noting that he gives up his back often. He believes Lima will finish by rear-naked choke in the first or second round, as he is a more proven prospect with better striking and grappling.

Angelo is extremely confident in Payton Talbott, citing his youth, speed, and striking ability. He believes the age and speed gap will be decisive and expects Talbott to potentially knock out Barcelos. He warns against betting Talbott at -1200, calling it too risky.

Cody picks Payton Talbott confidently, viewing him as a rising star. He notes Talbott's exceptional striking, athleticism, and rapidly improving takedown defense. Cody points out that Barcelos is 37 and has slowed down, with recent losses showing regression in wrestling, striking defense, and reflexes. He believes Talbott's speed and power will be too much, and that Barcelos's best days are behind him. Cody expects Talbott to win dominantly, possibly by knockout.

Daniel picks Talbott by knockout, citing his volume, power, and swag. He notes that Barcelos is almost 40 and has taken too much damage in recent fights. Daniel mentions that Barcelos is a savvy vet but Talbott is quicker, younger, and more durable. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects Talbott to win by knockout.

The host is a huge Barcelos fan but acknowledges Talbott is a much slicker striker who uses speed and power to land big shots. He expects Talbott to put Barcelos away in under one and a half rounds.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Talbott. He notes that Talbott looks like he's in the Matrix and is a new-generation fighter. Paul believes Barcelos is too slow and past his prime, and that Talbott's speed and striking will be decisive. He also mentions that Barcelos has been taken down and outworked by younger fighters recently. Paul is not stepping in front of the Talbott train.

Cody picks Talbott, calling him a future star. He notes that Talbott has excellent footwork, speed, and precision, and that he has finished all his opponents. Cody believes Ghemmouri is a step down in competition and that Talbott will likely win by knockout. He also mentions that Talbott's takedown defense has improved and that he is comfortable striking.

Daniel sees Talbott as a rising star with astronomic improvements, citing his win over Cameron Simon as eye-opening. He thinks Ghemmouri is a solid but low-output kickboxer who lacks the 'it factor.' He expects Talbott to eventually make reads and finish, possibly by guillotine or head kick, but acknowledges it could go the distance.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host is very confident Talbott will win, calling him one of the best bantamweight strikers. He expects a highlight-reel knockout, noting Talbott's speed, footwork, and improved takedown defense. He criticizes Ghemmouri's management for taking this fight and says Talbott should have no trouble finishing him.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Talbott is a massive favorite for a reason. He points out that Talbott has never finished anyone in the first round but wears opponents down with volume. Paul believes Talbott will eventually get a knockout or submission, but the minus-1700 price is too high to bet straight. He suggests the knockout prop at minus-250 as a better option.

Angelo picks Payton Talbott, citing his dangerous striking and the poor performance of Saaiman in his last loss. He notes that Talbott's takedown defense is a concern, but Saaiman is not a great wrestler. He is undecided on a bet but may place a small wager or include Talbott in a high-risk parlay due to the even odds.

Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, citing his striking volume, power, pressure, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Saaiman's takedown threat is a concern but believes the fight will primarily be on the feet. He predicts Talbott wins by decision, possibly finishing late.

Cody prefers the known commodity in Saaiman, who has proven his toughness and volume. He notes that Talbott is untested and lost the first round against Nick Aguirre. Cody believes Saaiman's forward pressure and volume will earn him rounds, and he likes the plus money on the underdog.

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Payton Talbott, citing his physical attributes, durability, and cardio. He notes Talbott is a slow starter but comes on strong in later rounds, while Saaiman is more technically sound. He expects a competitive fight but thinks Talbott's intangibles edge him out.

Talbott is the cleaner striker with good combinations and improving defensive grappling. Saaiman relies on athleticism and power but has been taken down and ground out before. Talbott should keep the fight standing and land cleaner shots, possibly opening up a finish. Saaiman's power is a threat, but Talbott's technical edge should win a decision.

Paul leans toward Talbott based on his reach advantage and high volume output (145 significant strikes in his Contender Series fight). He acknowledges Saaiman's takedown ability but thinks Talbott's striking and familiarity with the Vegas environment give him an edge. Paul sees it as a close fight.

Angelo picks Payton Talbott, noting he is a flashy striker with power and movement. He acknowledges Talbott can be out-grappled but expects him to starch his opponent. He comments that the odds at 4-to-1 or 5-to-1 seem wide but the UFC is building him up.

Big Brady thinks Talbott is a big favorite for a reason, with incredible striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Aguirre's striking is non-existent and that Dan Arretta out struck him 27-13. He predicts Talbott will drown Aguirre with volume and finish him in the second round, unless Aguirre gets a first-round submission. He says the price is wide but warranted.

Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight. He notes that Talbott is a huge favorite at -700 but is making his UFC debut, which makes him hesitant. He considers a sprinkle on Aguirre by submission as a dog play but does not commit to a pick.

Aguirre is a slick submission specialist with crafty BJJ. Talbott is a striker who has struggled with grappling control in the past. Aguirre can get the fight to the ground via clinch or pulling guard and find a submission. The line is too wide; a small poke on Aguirre by submission at +1000 is a steal.

Paul also does not make a clear pick. He discusses the line being too high for an unproven debutant and mentions that Aguirre has a chance via submission. He leans towards not betting the favorite but does not pick a side.