UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2

Cody picks Pereira to win again, citing his cleaner striking and the leg kick issue that Procházka couldn't solve in the first fight. He notes that Procházka's karate stance leaves his lead leg exposed, and Pereira's heavy leg kicks will be a problem. Cody also mentions that Pereira has improved his takedown defense since the first fight, and that Procházka's tendency to brawl plays into Pereira's hands. He acknowledges that Procházka is a madman who never stops coming, but believes Pereira's refined skills will prevail.

Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira, stating that Procházka's best path is creating chaos, but Pereira has the ability to navigate chaos and not engage with it while still taking advantage. He notes that Pereira is a more controlled and technical striker than Procházka, and he took care of him in the first fight. Vreeland believes Pereira will be almost impossible to beat unless someone comes with a heavy wrestling plan or is a striking savant like Izzy.

Daniel views the fight as a 50/50 coin flip, but likes the plus money on Procházka. He believes Procházka can create his 'perfect storm' and return the favor after being stopped early in the first fight. He notes that Procházka was not truly out and that the rematch is justified. He expects someone to hit the deck and hopes Procházka can avoid accumulated damage and the left hook.

Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira, stating he usually takes the winner of the first fight in a rematch. He notes that both fighters are dangerous on the feet, but Pereira is a more controlled version of Procházka and way more technical. Fox believes Pereira can keep himself safer while still being dangerous, and he expects Pereira to do the same as the first fight.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host acknowledges this is a very close fight, calling it a coin flip. He gives a slight edge to Pereira because he is the technically better striker, citing the calf kick and check left hook. However, he notes Procházka is just as capable of knocking Pereira out and that the underdog line at +130 is tempting. He ultimately leans Pereira by knockout but says he will likely not bet the fight, possibly taking the under 2.5 rounds.

Paul picks Pereira, emphasizing that he already beat Procházka once and is the cleaner striker. He notes that Procházka's leg kicks were a major issue in the first fight and that Pereira's left hook is deadly. Paul also points out that Procházka's takedown in the first fight was a result of Pereira grabbing a guillotine, a mistake he likely won't repeat. He expects a wild brawl but believes Pereira will finish Procházka again, possibly by knockout.

The Guru picks Jiří Procházka to defeat Alex Pereira in the rematch. He notes that in the first fight, Pereira had little success outside of low kicks, and Procházka was coming off a long layoff and shoulder injury. He believes Procházka's active fighting style and recent war with Rakic will benefit him, while Pereira's last fight was an easy win over Jamahal Hill. He predicts Procházka will pressure Pereira and finish him by TKO in round three.

Cody fades the hype on Diego Lopes and picks Brian Ortega. He argues that Lopes' wins are over lower-level competition (Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodi Yusuf) and that his takedown defense is poor. Ortega, on the other hand, has fought the elite of the division and has shown improved wrestling, taking down Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway. Cody believes Ortega's experience, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu will neutralize Lopes' grappling, and that Ortega has multiple paths to victory including submission or decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as the underdog, arguing that people are writing him off too soon. He notes that Ortega was a whisper away from submitting Alexander Volkanovski, and his grappling is at another level. Vreeland believes Ortega can hold his own on the feet and will get the better of scrambles. He compares this fight to Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez, where Ortega proved doubters wrong. He also questions whether Diego Lopes is as good as Yair Rodriguez.

Daniel is leaning towards Ortega (Ige) by decision, citing Ortega's durability, offensive wrestling improvements, and experience against top competition. He notes that Lopes has a poor record when fights go to decision (2-4) and that Ortega is 5-1 in decisions with the only loss to Volkanovski. He expects Ortega to weather early adversity and accumulate top control.

Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes, stating he is far more explosive on the feet, which is a concern for Ortega. He acknowledges Ortega's grappling is elite but notes that the Volkanovski fight was almost four years ago. Fox prefers the younger fighter who has been mowing through people and sees good value in the line. He admits it's a close matchup but leans Lopes.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host gives a slight lean to Diego Lopes, citing his momentum, confidence, and striking improvements. He believes Lopes has good enough defensive jiu-jitsu to avoid Ortega's submissions and should have a striking advantage. He notes Ortega has more high-level experience but thinks Lopes' style is perfect to beat Ortega. He mentions the line has moved from -160 to -125 and says he might bet if Lopes becomes the underdog.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market loves Lopes but that Ortega has never been finished and has fought the best. He points out that Lopes has low striking volume and questionable takedown defense, while Ortega has a proven ability to win decisions or submissions. Paul also mentions that Ortega's experience against top competition gives him a clear edge, and that Lopes' hype is based on flashy finishes over lesser opponents.

The Guru picks Diego Lopes over Brian Ortega (note: transcript says Ortega vs Lopes, but fight card lists Lopes vs Ige; likely a mistake in transcript). He is confident in Lopes, citing his dangerous striking and submission skills. He believes Lopes will be aggressive from the start, while Ortega may be hesitant. He notes Lopes' short-notice advantage and year-round training. He predicts a first-round finish for Lopes.

Cody picks Dolidze despite concerns about his inconsistency. He notes that Dolidze looked good against Marvin Vettori but terrible against Nassourdine Imavov, possibly due to the lack of crowd energy in the Apex. Cody believes Dolidze will benefit from the live crowd at UFC 303 and that his durability and pressure will be key. He also points out that Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight before and that Smith tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish.

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze, stating that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has knockout power, as evidenced by his KO of Jack Hermansson. He believes Dolidze will stuff any takedown attempts from Smith and knock him out on the feet. Vreeland also praises Dolidze's underrated jiu-jitsu and sweeps, noting he won't fall into a dumb submission. He acknowledges the concern of Dolidze moving up in weight on short notice but still favors him.

Daniel has no strong read on this fight, noting both fighters are opportunistic finishers with similar qualities. He sees Dolidze potentially getting takedowns and grinding, but ultimately goes with the underdog Smith because he doesn't know enough and prefers the dog. He acknowledges it could realistically go either way.

Jeff Fox picks Roman Dolidze, noting that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has been knocking people out, including three straight before his last two losses. He mentions that Smith has screwed them over numerous times but still cannot pick him. Fox also points out that Dolidze is taking the fight on short notice but still expects him to win.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host thinks Dolidze's aggressiveness could cause Smith issues, and that Smith does not have the technical striking to pick Dolidze apart like Imavov did. He predicts Dolidze will break Smith and get a finish in the second or third round. However, he is not confident due to Dolidze's lack of technical prowess and the short notice weight class change, so he says this fight is likely a pass.

Paul leans toward Smith, noting that he has value as a plus-money underdog. He acknowledges Smith's tendency to fade in later rounds but believes Smith's striking is superior and that he can catch Dolidze early. Paul also mentions that Smith has a history of upsetting prospects and that Dolidze's last performance was concerning. However, he admits it's a close fight and that Smith's path to victory likely involves an early finish.

The Guru picks Anthony Smith over Roman Dolidze. He criticizes Dolidze as 'dog [__]' and believes Smith is a level above. He notes Smith's recent win over Vitor Petrino and his ability to survive on the ground, as seen against Jon Jones. He also mentions Smith will have a size advantage since Dolidze was preparing for middleweight. He expects Smith to win, possibly by finish.

Cody picks Chiasson, citing her size, wrestling, and cardio advantages. He notes that Bueno Silva has poor takedown defense and cardio issues, and that Chiasson has consistently scored takedowns against tough opponents. Cody believes Chiasson will use her clinch work and wrestling to wear on Bueno Silva, and that she can win a decision or possibly get a submission. He also mentions that Bueno Silva's best wins are over lower-tier competition and that she failed a drug test.

Daniel Vreeland picks Macy Chiasson because she has looked better recently, rounding out her game and improving her takedown defense. He notes that Chiasson is a better striker than Bueno Silva and has a significant reach advantage (six inches). Vreeland believes Bueno Silva's only path to victory is grinding, but Chiasson has the skills to stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. He also cites Bueno Silva's poor gas tank in her last fight against Raquel Pennington as a concern.

Daniel believes Bueno Silva has championship potential, citing her power, calf kicks, and opportunistic submissions. He notes that her loss to Pennington came when she was sick and had a busted eardrum. He views Chiasson as having physical attributes but being flaky and prone to mistakes under pressure. He thinks Bueno Silva is meaner, more athletic, and has a higher trajectory.

Jeff Fox picks Macy Chiasson, echoing Vreeland's reasoning. He notes that Bueno Silva did not look good in her last fight and has gas tank concerns. Fox points out that Chiasson is way bigger, a better striker, and has improved her grappling. He also mentions that Chiasson's coach will keep her focused.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host leans Chiasson, citing her strength and ability to grind on Bueno Silva. He notes Bueno Silva is dangerous with submissions off her back early, but if Chiasson can control her against the cage for the first 6-7 minutes and then take her down, she will have success. He mentions the line has moved from +180 to nearly pick'em, indicating confidence in Chiasson.

Paul picks Bueno Silva by submission, noting that her submission grappling is her biggest weapon. He acknowledges that Chiasson is bigger and has better wrestling, but believes Bueno Silva can catch her in a submission if the fight goes to the ground. Paul points out that Bueno Silva has a history of pulling off submissions from seemingly losing positions, and that the plus-370 odds for her by submission offer value.

The Guru picks Macy Chiasson as an underdog over Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Chiasson's size and reach advantage, and that Bueno Silva looked terrible in her last fight. He believes Chiasson can muscle her around and out-hustle her. He also mentions Chiasson's flexibility in submissions and her competitive fight against Norma Dumont.

Cody picks Garry, emphasizing his youth, grappling advantage, and cardio. He notes that Page is 37 and has shown takedown defense issues, while Garry is a judo black belt with improving wrestling. Cody believes Garry will use leg kicks and clinch work to neutralize Page's movement, and that he can win a decision or possibly get a submission. He also mentions that Page's win over Kevin Holland was unimpressive and that Garry has the skills to implement a game plan.

Daniel Vreeland picks Ian Garry because he believes Garry is smart enough to not let Michael Page fight his fight. He notes that Page's best performances come against opponents who are 'a little nuts' and willing to engage in chaos, but Garry is disciplined and won't be lured out of his game plan. Vreeland expects Garry to crowd Page, press him against the cage, and possibly mix in grappling to neutralize Page's striking range. He also points out that Garry has better grappling stats and is younger and more active.

Daniel took MVP at plus 125 for two units, his first time picking against Garry. He believes MVP's speed and unorthodox style can fluster Garry, and that Garry's wrestling advantage is mitigated by MVP's improved takedown defense. He acknowledges the age difference (11 years) but sees MVP as an anomaly. He is worried about Garry's top control but is letting it ride.

Jeff Fox picks Ian Garry, stating that Garry has proven he knows how to stay safe and use range and distance better than Page. He notes that Page did not look impressive in his win over Kevin Holland and didn't put his foot on the gas, which could get him in trouble against Garry. Fox believes Garry is a very good deal at minus 137.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host is confident in Garry, emphasizing his superior grappling. He believes Garry will exploit Page's takedown defense and use his wrestling to take the fight to the mat, where he can control or submit Page. He notes Garry is not outmatched on the feet and expects the line to move to -160 or -170 by fight time. He also mentions a submission prop at +900 as a sprinkle.

Paul picks Page by knockout, admitting he is betting with his heart because he dislikes Garry. He acknowledges that Garry has a grappling advantage but believes Page's power and flashy striking can end the fight at any moment. Paul notes that Page looked good against Kevin Holland and that Garry has been rocked before. He also mentions that Page is a plus-500 underdog by knockout, which offers value.

The Guru picks Michael 'Venom' Page over Ian Garry. He believes MVP can make the fight boring and win by being selective with exchanges. He notes Garry's dismissive attitude as coping and thinks Garry is chinny. He predicts MVP will win by KO in round one or two, citing reach advantage and MVP's ability to win on the outside.

Cody picks Pyfer but is hesitant due to his cardio issues. He notes that Pyfer has heavy hands and usually finishes fights early, but if Barriault survives the first round, Pyfer may fade. Cody believes Pyfer will learn from his loss to Jack Hermansson and pace himself better, but acknowledges that Barriault's pressure and cardio could cause problems. He expects Pyfer to win a decision or get an early knockout.

Daniel thinks Pyfer has more power and is more physically imposing than Barriault. He notes that Barriault struggles against higher competition and lacks athleticism. He believes Pyfer learned from his loss to Hermansson and will come back better. He expects a three-round scrap where Pyfer's firepower makes the difference, whether by decision or knockout.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host picks Pyfer by knockout but is hesitant, noting that Barriault's cardio and volume could cause problems if Pyfer doesn't finish early. He says the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Barriault. He suggests the knockout prop at +200 is a better way to play Pyfer, and also mentions Barriault's decision prop and round 3 prop as potential plays.

Paul leans toward Barriault as a live underdog, noting that Pyfer has cardio issues and that Barriault has a high-volume pressure style. He points out that Barriault has gone the distance with tough opponents and that Pyfer tends to slow down after the first round. Paul suggests betting Barriault live after the first round if he survives, as his odds will improve significantly.

The Guru picks Joe Pyfer over Marc-André Barriault. He notes that Barriault has no power and is a grindy fighter who gets into brawls. He believes Pyfer's technical striking and takedown entries will be key. He predicts Pyfer will finish Barriault by TKO in the first round, as Barriault is hittable and has been KO'd before.

Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.

Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.

Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.

Cody picks Silva, citing his speed, power, and game planning. He notes that Jourdain is inconsistent and has poor takedown defense, while Silva comes from a strong camp (Fighting Nerds) and has a clear game plan. Cody believes Silva's physicality and striking will overwhelm Jourdain, and that he can win by knockout or decision. He also mentions that Jourdain often chases bonuses instead of fighting smart.

Daniel believes in 'paying your dues' and thinks Jourdain's experience and veteran tactics will be the separator. He notes that Jourdain's loss to Woodson was a bad stylistic matchup and that this fight is different. He expects a back-and-forth banger where Jourdain edges out a decision, though Silva may have moments and raise his stock.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host leans Silva as a slight underdog, citing his speed and power advantage. He expects both fighters to engage in a wild striking battle, and believes Silva's physical attributes will allow him to land first and potentially get a knockout. He notes Jourdain has never been knocked out but thinks this could be the first time.

Paul leans toward Silva, noting that the line has moved from Jourdain being a favorite to a pick 'em. He believes Silva will land the more impactful strikes and that Jourdain's recent performances have been disappointing. Paul acknowledges that Jourdain has experience but thinks Silva's youth and power give him the edge.

The Guru picks Charles Jourdain over Jean Silva. He believes Jourdain is more technical and better under pressure. He notes Jourdain's submission skills and ability to finish. He thinks Jourdain's best work comes against shorter, wild opponents. He predicts a second or third round TKO for Jourdain.

Cody picks Talbott, calling him a future star. He notes that Talbott has excellent footwork, speed, and precision, and that he has finished all his opponents. Cody believes Ghemmouri is a step down in competition and that Talbott will likely win by knockout. He also mentions that Talbott's takedown defense has improved and that he is comfortable striking.

Daniel sees Talbott as a rising star with astronomic improvements, citing his win over Cameron Simon as eye-opening. He thinks Ghemmouri is a solid but low-output kickboxer who lacks the 'it factor.' He expects Talbott to eventually make reads and finish, possibly by guillotine or head kick, but acknowledges it could go the distance.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host is very confident Talbott will win, calling him one of the best bantamweight strikers. He expects a highlight-reel knockout, noting Talbott's speed, footwork, and improved takedown defense. He criticizes Ghemmouri's management for taking this fight and says Talbott should have no trouble finishing him.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Talbott is a massive favorite for a reason. He points out that Talbott has never finished anyone in the first round but wears opponents down with volume. Paul believes Talbott will eventually get a knockout or submission, but the minus-1700 price is too high to bet straight. He suggests the knockout prop at minus-250 as a better option.

The Guru picks Payton Talbott over Yanis Ghemmouri. He acknowledges Talbott's hype but notes he is not a future champion. He believes Talbott has composure and finishing potential. He predicts a TKO in the second or third round, but warns that Ghemmouri may have moments and that Talbott should not be such a heavy favorite.

Cody picks Robertson, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and recent improvements. He notes that Waterson is 38 and on a losing streak, and that her takedown defense has declined. Cody believes Robertson will take Waterson down and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision. He also mentions that Robertson has been working on her cardio and game planning.

Daniel believes Robertson's path is to get takedowns and maul Waterson on the ground, either by submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes Robertson holds the record for most submissions in women's UFC history. He sees Waterson's only path being keeping it standing or hitting a sneaky submission, but thinks Robertson will eventually get her down.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host is confident Robertson will get a submission, citing her relentless grappling and ability to take the back. He notes Waterson-Gomez is on a four-fight losing streak and slowing down at 38. He expects Robertson to eventually secure a takedown and find a choke, recommending Robertson by submission as the best bet.

Paul picks Robertson, noting that Waterson is past her prime and has lost six of her last seven. He believes Robertson's grappling will be too much for Waterson, who has been submitted before. Paul also mentions that Robertson is younger and improving, while Waterson's best days are behind her.

The Guru picks Michelle Waterson-Gomez as an underdog over Gillian Robertson. He praises Waterson's takedown defense and striking, saying she is levels above Robertson on the feet. He doubts Robertson's ability to harm anyone standing. He expects Waterson to win by decision.

Cody picks Arlovski, citing his experience and tendency to win close decisions. He notes that Buday has low output and poor wrestling, and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who often gets the nod in close fights. Cody believes Arlovski can outpoint Buday in a low-volume affair, but admits it's a risky pick.

Daniel thinks Buday will win the fight by pinning Arlovski against the fence and wearing him down with dirty boxing. However, he is hesitant to lay the price because similar prospects like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins failed to finish Arlovski. He notes that Aspen Ladd did his job at a similar price, so he expects Buday to win but is not interested in the bet.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host picks Buday, expecting him to be pissed off after his last loss and to pressure Arlovski. He thinks Buday's clinch work and forward pressure will wear on Arlovski, and hopes Buday goes for takedowns to finish easily. He recommends Buday inside the distance at +150.

Paul leans toward Arlovski, noting that Buday has been out struck in recent fights and that Arlovski has a history of winning split decisions. He believes Arlovski's durability and experience will be key, and that Buday lacks the power to finish him. Paul expects a boring decision win for Arlovski.

The Guru picks Martin Buday over Andrei Arlovski. He notes Arlovski's age and recent KO losses. He likes Buday's pressure game plan and training with Tom Aspinall. He believes Buday will lean on Arlovski in the clinch and break him down with body shots.

Cody picks Tsuruya, citing his youth, grappling, and back-taking ability. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down multiple times in recent fights and that Tsuruya is a relentless grappler. Cody believes Tsuruya will eventually get a takedown and take Hernandez's back, leading to a submission or dominant decision. He also mentions that Tsuruya has a good gas tank and creates scrambles.

Daniel respects Tsuruya's grappling-heavy style and his commitment to takedowns, even if they are not set up. He worries about Hernandez's lack of athleticism and physicality, which could allow Tsuruya to backpack and win a decision or submission. However, he notes that Tsuruya is vulnerable to knees when shooting blindly and calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host is confident Tsuruya will win, citing his superior wrestling and ability to create chaos in grappling exchanges. He expects Tsuruya to grind out Hernandez over 15 minutes, possibly by decision. He notes Hernandez has solid takedown defense but thinks Tsuruya's relentless pressure will overcome it.

Paul leans toward Tsuruya but is wary of the minus-500 price. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down frequently and that Tsuruya is a strong grappler. However, Paul prefers to see Tsuruya against better competition before betting him at such short odds. He acknowledges that Tsuruya likely wins but passes on the bet.

The Guru picks Carlos Hernandez as an underdog over Rei Tsuruya. He suspects Tsuruya may be due for a 'fraud check' as a Road to UFC prospect. He notes Hernandez's experience and longevity in the sport. He believes Hernandez can win a close decision, possibly 29-28.