Bogdan Guskov

Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.

Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.

Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.

Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.

Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.

The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.

Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.

The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.

Angelo picks Nikita Krylov, citing his well-rounded skills, high fight IQ, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Bogdan Guskov has power but showed wrestling holes in his last fight. He uses MMA math (Krylov beat Volkan, Volkan beat Guskov) and expects Krylov to wrestle. He will not bet on this fight.

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Guskov has been outgrappled by lesser fighters like Billy Elekana and Volkan Oezdemir, and believes Krylov will take him down and submit him easily. He worries about Krylov's durability and fight IQ but thinks if he wrestles, he wins. He predicts a first-round submission.

Connor acknowledges Krylov's shaky confidence after the Reyes KO but believes Guskov's style is more manageable. He notes Guskov's poor takedown defense and Krylov's clear path to win via wrestling. He thinks Krylov will test his grappling early and avoid striking exchanges.

This is a perfect matchup for Krylov to utilize his grapple-heavy approach, keep Guskov on his back, grind him out, and clearly win on the scorecards or even lock up a late submission.

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his patience, calmness, and ability to eat shots and break opponents. He criticizes Nikita Krylov for returning too soon after a KO loss and being too wild. He predicts an early TKO, possibly in round one or two, with multiple knockdowns.

Angelo picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his power and ability to find the chin, especially against Johnny Walker who has a weak chin. He notes that if Guskov cannot knock out Walker, he should be sent on his way. He suggests betting Guskov inside the distance with a 'no action' refund if it goes to decision.

Cody does not have a clear pick. He expresses doubt about Guskov, noting that Guskov has been a betting underdog in all his UFC fights and has shown flaws: he was losing to Zach Pauga before a KO, and gassed against Ryan Spann. Cody also questions Guskov's chin and ground game. However, he is not confident in Elekana either, who is taking the fight on short notice and has not impressed at 205. Cody ultimately passes on betting this fight.

Daniel picks Guskov, noting his big power and experience against ranked opponents. He thinks Elekana is green and took the fight on short notice. Daniel believes Guskov can back Elekana up and land something big. He is not betting due to the price but expects Guskov to win.

The host describes Guskov as having power punching but defensive grappling issues. Elekana is a solid striker with BJJ chops. The host expects Elekana to counter Guskov effectively and either club and sub him or knock him out inside the distance.

Paul also has no clear pick. He agrees with Cody that Guskov is not trustworthy as a big favorite, and Elekana is unproven. Paul considers a live bet on Elekana if Guskov shows fatigue, but does not commit to a pre-fight pick. He notes that Elekana has never been knocked out, which could provide value if Guskov fades.

Angelo picks Ryan Spann due to experience, size, and durability. He thinks Bogdan Guskov may have early success but will fade, while Spann will survive and take over. He notes Spann is dangerous everywhere (striking, submissions, wrestling) and has cardio for 15 minutes. He believes Spann likely wins by decision or late stoppage, but is not confident enough to bet on him.

Cody leans toward Guskov as a doger pass, citing Spann's inconsistencies and poor durability. He thinks Guskov's power gives him a puncher's chance, especially if Spann's weight cut is rough. However, he admits Guskov is not very good and the pick is high variance.

Daniel acknowledges Spann's talent and athleticism but calls him a 'talented flake' with mental issues and a history of getting knocked out the same way. He thinks Spann should win based on skills but can't lay -190 on him. He leans Spann but passes on betting.

Spann has the athleticism, power, and speed advantage. He should be able to hurt Guskov early and find a finish, likely in the first round. Guskov was knocked out in his UFC debut and may be vulnerable to Spann's power. I expect Spann to win by first-round knockout.

Paul picks Spann despite his inconsistencies, arguing Spann has faced much better competition and is more skilled overall. He believes Spann's takedowns and grappling will be the difference, and that Guskov's padded record and lack of durability will be exposed.

Angelo criticizes Zac Pauga for lacking urgency and a game plan in the cage, despite having skills. He notes Pauga has become a striker in the UFC and hasn't shown his pre-UFC wrestling. Bogdan Guskov is described as heavy-handed, with good footwork and combinations, and patience on top. Angelo believes Guskov is the more dangerous fighter and picks him, though he will monitor the odds.

Big Brady picks Bogdan Guskov to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pauga is the worst finisher in UFC history and has poor striking defense and chin, while Guskov is a one-round banger who will try to take his head off. He calls it a 50-50 fight but favors Guskov's power and aggression.

Cody picks Pauga, noting Guskov is a one-dimensional power puncher with poor cardio and takedown defense. Pauga has decent cardio and can grind out a win by controlling against the cage. Cody thinks Pauga will survive the early storm and take over in later rounds, possibly by knockout.

Pauga is more well-rounded and should be able to grind Guskov up against the cage, similar to his fight against Jordan Wright. Guskov relies heavily on early knockout power and has poor durability if he doesn't get the finish. Pauga's grinding style should wear on Guskov, leading to a late finish or decision. However, Pauga's chin is a concern if he eats early shots.

Paul also picks Pauga, agreeing that Guskov is a can crusher with no chin. He notes Pauga's experience against bigger men and his ability to implement a grinding game plan. Paul expects Pauga to wear on Guskov and get a finish or decision.

Angelo leans towards Bogdan Guskov, calling him the more dangerous guy with well-rounded skills. He notes Volkan Oezdemir has a weak chin and has fought top competition, but Guskov's power and patience on the ground could be key. He hopes for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.

Big Brady picks Oezdemir, despite acknowledging his recent decline and poor performance against Paul Craig. He views Guskov as a 'fraud' with poor cardio, striking defense, and competition level. He expects Oezdemir to finish Guskov early, likely by first-round KO, as this is the easiest fight of Oezdemir's UFC tenure.

Cody picks Oezdemir but is hesitant, acknowledging Guskov's first-round KO power and the trend of debuting underdogs winning. He notes Oezdemir has struggled lately, with low volume and no knockdowns in four years, but has elite training and experience. Guskov is a wild card who has only faced regional competition. Cody thinks Oezdemir can point-fight to a decision but Guskov is live for an early finish.

Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, acknowledging that Oezdemir has shown regression but believes the experience gap is massive. He notes that Oezdemir has fought the who's who of the division, while Guskov is an unproven newcomer with a questionable chin. Levi admits Oezdemir hasn't finished anyone since 2019 and his takedown defense has declined, but he still thinks Oezdemir has enough to win. He is not confident enough to offer a bet, calling it a 'see how it goes' fight.

Lucrative James is on Guskov moneyline, believing Oezdemir has been on a downtrend since the Jiri knockout, with worse reaction time and chin. He thinks Guskov has true power, shown by knockouts in multiple ways (elbows, jabs, straight hands). He notes Guskov's submissions are also good, and he has a prop on Guskov by submission at 20-1. He argues that heavyweights with knockout power can step up in competition more easily because they only need one shot.

I'm picking Oezdemir here. He has a huge experience advantage and I expect a very pissed off version of him after his last fight. He should use his leg kicking game to slow down Guskov and then find his knockout power within the first 10 minutes. Guskov is a power puncher who finishes early, but when he faces resistance he struggles. Oezdemir's power and experience should be too much.

Paul picks Oezdemir but is scared, recalling Oezdemir's poor performance against Krylov where he was mauled. He compares Guskov to Nursulton Ruziboev, a debuting fighter who crushed a veteran. Paul notes Guskov has first-round KO potential and is a low-owned DFS play. He won't bet the -180 but will pick Oezdemir.