UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking, accuracy, and grappling chops. He acknowledges Alex Perez is a dog who looked good against Muhammad Mokaev, but notes Perez didn't let his hands go in that fight. He worries about Nicolau coming off a knockout loss, which could affect his chin or aggression. He expects Nicolau to be calculated and patient, using his speed and technique to win.

Cody picks Nicolau as the more well-rounded fighter, better suited for five rounds. He notes Perez's weight cut issues and short notice, and believes Nicolau's efficiency and durability will carry him to a decision or late stoppage.

Daniel believes Nicolau has no technical weaknesses, with excellent boxing, takedown defense from Nova União, and strong jiu-jitsu. He notes Nicolau's chin is a concern but thinks Perez is overrated and that Nicolau will control the tempo and outpoint him. He picks Nicolau to win and take the next step toward title aspirations.

Perez has a wrestling and grappling advantage over Nicolau. He should be able to take the fight to the ground and control Nicolau from top position. Nicolau is the better striker, but Perez's wrestling should be the difference. I expect Perez to win on the scorecards, possibly with a TKO if he batters the lead leg.

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Nicolau's cleaner, more efficient work over five rounds. He highlights Perez's durability issues and low volume, and expects a decision win for Nicolau with a possible late stoppage if Perez tires.

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the more technical and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Nicolau has only been beaten by flash KOs (head kick from Dustin Ortiz, knee from Brandon Royval) and is otherwise undefeated since 2012. He criticizes Alex Perez as basic and lacking dynamic finishing ability. He predicts a decision win for Nicolau, possibly 4-1.

Angelo picks Ryan Spann due to experience, size, and durability. He thinks Bogdan Guskov may have early success but will fade, while Spann will survive and take over. He notes Spann is dangerous everywhere (striking, submissions, wrestling) and has cardio for 15 minutes. He believes Spann likely wins by decision or late stoppage, but is not confident enough to bet on him.

Cody leans toward Guskov as a doger pass, citing Spann's inconsistencies and poor durability. He thinks Guskov's power gives him a puncher's chance, especially if Spann's weight cut is rough. However, he admits Guskov is not very good and the pick is high variance.

Daniel acknowledges Spann's talent and athleticism but calls him a 'talented flake' with mental issues and a history of getting knocked out the same way. He thinks Spann should win based on skills but can't lay -190 on him. He leans Spann but passes on betting.

Spann has the athleticism, power, and speed advantage. He should be able to hurt Guskov early and find a finish, likely in the first round. Guskov was knocked out in his UFC debut and may be vulnerable to Spann's power. I expect Spann to win by first-round knockout.

Paul picks Spann despite his inconsistencies, arguing Spann has faced much better competition and is more skilled overall. He believes Spann's takedowns and grappling will be the difference, and that Guskov's padded record and lack of durability will be exposed.

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, noting that Bogdan Guskov has never fought someone taller than him and keeps his hands down. He criticizes Guskov's style of throwing shovel hooks from the waist, which may not work against a longer opponent. He believes Spann's reach and low kicks will be effective, and mentions Spann's guillotine threat. He predicts Spann will win, possibly by low kicks.

Angelo bet Karine Silva at +118 underdog, noting she has 17 wins all by stoppage. He believes she can get the fight to the ground and find a submission or ground-and-pound. He gives credit to Ariane da Silva for improving her grappling and takedown defense, but thinks Karine's finishing ability will be the difference. He is confident she wins and notes the line has since flipped to -140.

Cody picks Lipski as a dog, citing her improved takedown defense (stuffed 19 of 20 attempts in last three fights) and volume striking. He believes she can survive Silva's early submission threats and win a decision, noting she has never been submitted.

Daniel is impressed by Silva's 100% finish rate (17 finishes) and her dangerous ground game, including a rare leg lock. He thinks her striking is hittable but she's confident because she's dangerous on the ground. He believes she will finish Lipski, noting that in women's MMA, such finishing upside is huge.

Ariane da Silva has shown improved takedown defense, stuffing all 25 takedown attempts in her last five fights. She should be able to keep the fight standing and use her striking to beat Karine Silva. Karine Silva is dangerous on the ground but has holes in her striking. I lean Ariane da Silva by decision.

Paul also picks Lipski, highlighting her three-fight winning streak as an underdog since moving to American Top Team. He notes her takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing, and expects her volume to outwork Silva over three rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva, highlighting her consistent finishing ability with five or six submissions in a row. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's wins as over weak competition and notes her submission game is more opportunistic. He believes Silva's ability to force submissions will be the difference, and predicts she will get past da Silva.

Angelo picks Jhonata Diniz with medium confidence, citing his superior striking technique, power, and speed. He notes Diniz is a Contender Series product with professional kickboxing experience and clean combinations. However, he is wary of Diniz's untested takedown defense and the possibility of a 'Volker Walker' type flop. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds could be a good play if the line is plus money, as this could be a sloppy fight.

Cody picks Diniz, calling Lane a 'lose lose lose cut' type. He notes Diniz's kickboxing pedigree (fought in Glory) and believes his striking is far superior. He expects Diniz to land first and finish, though he admits it's a low-level heavyweight fight.

Daniel thinks Diniz is too technically sound for Lane, who is a former NFL player with a weak chin and no takedown attempts. He expects Diniz to get a knockout, though he notes Diniz's cardio is untested. He picks Diniz to win.

Diniz is a slick striker with good defensive grappling. He should be able to keep the fight standing and pick apart Lane. Lane has a questionable chin and may struggle with Diniz's combination striking. I expect Diniz to win by knockout, but the price is a bit steep.

Paul agrees, emphasizing Diniz's striking credentials and Lane's lack of MMA experience. He thinks Diniz is faster, sharper, and more tactical, and will likely get a knockout. He considers this one of the better plays on the card.

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his elite kickboxing background and training with Rico Verhoeven. He praises Diniz's fundamental stance, chin tucked, and composure. He criticizes Austen Lane for being scared to get hit and having poor reactions. He predicts Diniz will catch Lane with a jab-straight combination while Lane is on one leg, leading to a TKO.

Angelo has a half-unit bet on Jonathan Pearce at -140, beating the line. He attributes the pick solely to wrestling: Pearce is a relentless wrestler who averages almost six takedowns per fight. He believes David Onama, a good kickboxer, will struggle to stop the takedowns, as Nate Landwehr was able to take him down. He notes Pearce dominated his last fight before a submission loss due to showboating, but expects him to dominate here.

Cody picks Onama as an underdog, citing his reach and striking advantage. He notes that judges score damage over control time, and if Onama can get back to his feet after takedowns, he can win rounds with strikes. He sees this as close to a 50/50 fight.

Daniel likes Pearce's high pace, cardio, and improved striking, but notes he's inconsistent and sticks his neck into guillotines. He thinks Pearce can grind out a win via takedowns and top control, but acknowledges Onama's power and heart make him dangerous. He leans Pearce but calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Pearce has a dominant grappling style and should be able to nullify Onama's power punching by taking him down and keeping him in uncomfortable positions. Onama has shown defensive grappling improvements but may still struggle with Pearce's smothering style. I lean Pearce by decision, but Onama could find a finish late if Pearce slows down.

Paul picks Pearce, arguing his wrestling and top control will be decisive. He notes Pearce's chain wrestling and ability to improve position, and believes Onama's takedown defense is questionable. He expects a grinding decision win for Pearce.

The MMA Guru picks David Onama as an underdog. He criticizes Jonathan Pearce's striking as atrocious and lacking hand-eye coordination. He praises Onama's speed, grappling defense, and cardio, noting his KO of Gabriel Santos and competitive fight with Mason Jones. He predicts Onama will catch Pearce with a straight right in the second or third round for a TKO.

Angelo is very confident Uroš Medić wins, citing his youth, speed, power, and superior striking. He notes Medić has a 100% finish rate and killer instinct. The only concern is Medić's 46% takedown defense, but he thinks Tim Means at 40 years old may not be able to exploit it. He expects a finish and suggests waiting for prop bets, hoping for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.

Cody picks Means as a dog, citing his experience and cleaner striking. He notes Means' body work and straight left, and believes he can hurt Medić, who has been rocked before. However, he admits Means' age and cardio are concerns, making it a doger pass.

Daniel thinks Means is durable but at 40 may not dig deep when hurt. He notes Medić is younger, more dangerous, and showed heart in the Semelsberger fight. He leans Medić but won't bet at -310, though he might take Means as a dog if the price gets better.

Medić is younger, faster, and more powerful. Means is 40 with a lot of mileage. Medić's Muay Thai and power should overwhelm Means as the fight goes on. I expect Medić to finish Means, possibly by knockout. The inside distance prop is a good option.

Paul also picks Means, highlighting his experience against better competition and his opportunistic submission game. He thinks Means' grappling advantage could be key, as Medić has poor takedown defense. He calls it a clear doger pass.

The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić, calling him more explosive and dangerous on the feet. He criticizes Tim Means as hitting a veteran decline and notes his loss to Matt Semelsberger. He highlights Medić's good cardio and nasty body kicks, predicting a TKO via liver shot. He also mentions Medić's near-finish of Orolbai and his ability to handle Means' grinding style.

Angelo is confident Victor Henry wins but refuses to touch the -500 line, calling it 'kick rocks.' He notes Rani Yahya looked old and slow in his last fight, getting knocked out, and that good things don't happen after that in MMA. He points out Henry has lost to a 40-year-old before (Raphael Assunção), making him unreliable at such short odds. He picks Henry but says if he were -150 he'd love it.

Cody picks Henry, calling him the best favorite on the card. He notes Yahya's one-dimensional BJJ and poor striking, and believes Henry's wrestling and grappling will neutralize Yahya. He expects a dominant decision or late finish.

Daniel notes Henry has never been finished in 29 fights and has a catch wrestling background. He thinks Henry's output and striking will overwhelm Yahya, who is 42 and relies on jiu-jitsu. He expects Henry to look like a -400 favorite and win comfortably.

Henry has good defensive grappling and should be able to keep the fight upright, using his movement and output to chip away at Yahya. Yahya is dangerous on the ground but Henry's takedown defense is high level. I expect Henry to win on the scorecards. The over 2.5 rounds is also a good prop.

Paul agrees, citing Yahya's age (40), inactivity, and lack of wrestling. He thinks Henry can mimic Ricky Simon's game plan of stuffing takedowns and landing strikes. He considers Henry a solid favorite despite the poor line.

The MMA Guru picks Victor Henry as one of the locks of the card. He criticizes Rani Yahya as very old at 39 and notes his recent losses to Montel Jackson and weak competition. He praises Henry's consistency, difficulty to finish, and ability to survive on the ground. He predicts a unanimous decision or late TKO, and says he would be very shocked if Henry loses.

Angelo has a half-unit bet on Michał Figlak at -125, beating the line movement. He thinks Figlak is the much better and more dangerous fighter, with powerful striking and solid wrestling used defensively. He worries about Figlak's two-year layoff, noting that strikers with long layoffs often struggle to find rhythm. However, he believes Figlak's talent outweighs the risk at the current odds, though he cautions if Figlak reaches -170 or higher the layoff becomes too risky.

Cody picks Figlak, believing he will show improvement after a poor debut. He likes Figlak's pressure style and volume, and thinks Hubbard is a warm body with no standout skills. He expects Figlak to win by decision or late finish.

Daniel calls Hubbard 'harmless Hubbard' – durable but not a finisher. He thinks Figlak has had two years to improve and has the physicality and takedown defense to outwork Hubbard. He predicts Figlak by decision, noting Hubbard's lack of threat.

Hubbard has a wrestling and grappling advantage and should be able to dictate the pace, take Figlak down, and grind him out from top position. Figlak struggled against a striker in his UFC debut and may not have the resistance to stop Hubbard's pressure. Hubbard wins on the scorecards.

Paul also picks Figlak, citing his potential and Hubbard's limited ceiling. He notes Figlak's youth and room for growth, and believes the 16-month layoff will help him. He is worried about Hubbard's wrestling but trusts Figlak's improvements.

The MMA Guru picks Michał Figlak, noting he has been high on him for a long time. He mentions Figlak's training at Renegades with Leon Edwards and Arnold Allen, and his unrelenting pressure. He criticizes Austin Hubbard for looking awful against Kurt Holobaugh and beating low-level competition. He predicts Figlak will finish Hubbard with body shots to head shots in the late second or third round.

Angelo picks the underdog Caio Machado, believing he is the more technical striker with better footwork. He thinks Don'Tale Mayes has one-punch power but will struggle to land big shots, and Mayes' wrestling is not great. He expects Machado to defend takedowns and win a boring, sloppy heavyweight decision. He notes Mayes is a 2-to-1 favorite but favors the dog.

Cody picks Mayes, citing his experience against better competition and his reach advantage. He thinks Mayes' jab and switch-hitting style will be effective, and that Machado's padded record and poor takedown defense will be exposed.

Daniel argues Machado is underrated, citing his striking ratio (7 strikes landed per minute, 2 absorbed) and 82% takedown defense. He calls Mayes one of the worst heavyweights, with poor fight IQ and a history of losing. He thinks Machado will win by wanting it more and having higher output.

Machado will dictate the pace and be on the front foot, pressuring Mayes. Mayes has a history of quitting when faced with resistance. Machado's BJJ and pressure style should cause Mayes issues, and I expect Machado to finish him in the second or third round.

Paul picks Machado, believing his volume striking will edge out Mayes. He notes Machado's youth and potential, but admits Mayes' takedown game could be a problem. He calls it a 50/50 fight and slightly favors Machado.

The MMA Guru picks Don'Tale Mayes as an underdog. He notes that Caio Machado is used to being the taller fighter and keeps his hands down, which could be exploited by Mayes' height and reach. He criticizes Machado's headbutts and believes Mayes' athleticism and one-shot finishing power give him an edge. He also mentions that Machado's win over Mick Parkin was aided by head clashes and that Mayes' KO of Andre Arlovski shows his potential.

Angelo picks Ketlen Souza but disagrees with her being a 4-to-1 favorite, calling Marnic Mann a 'cannonball' who is tough and will stay in your face. He notes Souza has heavy strikes and solid grappling but relies on strength. He expects a dogfight and thinks over 2.5 rounds is the safest play because Mann is incredibly tough. He is confident Souza will get it done but not at those odds.

Cody picks Souza, citing her size and strength advantage. He notes Mann is undersized and has poor takedown defense. He expects Souza to use her grappling to control and submit Mann, though he warns about the weight cut.

Daniel thinks Souza is more experienced and well-rounded, with better striking and takedown defense. He notes Mann's only path is top control, but Souza can fight off her back. He picks Souza to win but has no interest in betting at -335.

Mann has a wrestling advantage and Souza has sketchy takedown defense. If Mann can get the fight to the ground, she can grind out a decision. However, if she can't, things could get shaky. The odds are wide, and I'd rather take the plus money on Mann. Low confidence, but I lean Mann by decision.

Paul picks Souza, calling her a rightful favorite. He notes Mann's lack of impressive wins and poor performance against Josephine Knutsson. He expects Souza's grappling and physicality to be too much, but admits the line is unappealing.

The MMA Guru picks Ketlen Souza, calling her more masculine and powerful. He criticizes Marnic Mann as terrible and not UFC caliber, noting her poor record and losses. He highlights Souza's finishing potential with seven or eight TKOs in 13 wins, and believes she has more power and physicality. He dismisses Souza's loss to Karine Silva as Silva being really good.

Cody picks Llontop, citing his youth, cardio, and pressure style. He notes Padilla has lost all four step-up fights and is on short notice. He expects Llontop to overwhelm Padilla with volume and eventually finish him.

Daniel likes Llontop's takedown defense, clean striking, and solid output. He views Padilla as a regional journeyman who only got the fight on short notice. He picks Llontop to win, possibly by knockout, but won't lay -400.

Llontop is a pressure-heavy fighter who loves to move forward, grind opponents in the clinch, and take them down. He has good cardio and pace. Padilla is on short notice and has mediocre competition wins. I expect Llontop to walk through Padilla's early power, then overwhelm him with volume and output, finishing him in the second or third round.

Paul agrees, noting Llontop's win over Malik Lewis and Padilla's struggles against higher-level competition. He thinks Llontop's pace and power will be too much, and expects a knockout or clear decision.

The MMA Guru picks James Llontop, comparing his composure to JDM and Max Holloway. He notes Llontop's technical striking, counter right hand, and ability to stay composed in the pocket. He criticizes Chris Padilla for coming from a low-level promotion and taking the fight on short notice, which may affect his weight cut. The Guru also mentions that Llontop had a full training camp and is more prepared.

Angelo is confident in Ivana Petrović because she is more durable and well-rounded than Liang Na. He notes Liang Na is a good wrestler who gets takedowns but then stops fighting, often getting finished shortly after. He expects Liang Na to look good early with takedowns but then fade and get swept or finished. He also mentions potential prop bets on the under if the round line is 2.5, and suggests PrizePicks plays on Liang Na's takedown numbers.

Cody picks Petrović, citing her superior grappling and wrestling. He notes Na gasses quickly and has poor durability. He expects Petrović to win by submission or ground and pound, though he warns about her own cardio issues.

Daniel thinks Na has poor cardio and fades after the first round, while Petrović has good cardio and decent grappling. He leans with the favorite, hoping Vegas is right, but has little interest in the fight.

Liang Na is aggressive and does her best work when she can get opponents to the ground, where she can assert dominant position and open up finishing opportunities. Petrović has shown takedown defense issues, especially against a striker like Lana Carolina. I expect Liang Na to get the fight to the mat early and find a finish, possibly in the first round. The 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop is also a good look.

Paul picks Petrović, noting Na's three-fight losing streak and tendency to gas. He thinks Petrović is the better all-around fighter and should win, but suggests live betting Na if she has early success.

The MMA Guru picks Ivana Petrović, though he admits his reasoning is not very logical. He notes that Petrović is bigger, has more reach, and has a striking background. He criticizes Liang Na for being shorter, less physical, and consistently getting finished in women's MMA, which he sees as a sign of mistakes. He trusts Petrović's composure and ground game, predicting a submission in the later rounds.

Angelo picks Maheshate but with very low confidence, calling it 'the tiniest sliver of confidence.' He notes Maheshate is young (24), faster, and stronger, but makes young mistakes and lets opponents dictate the pace. The pick is driven largely by recency bias, as Gabriel Benítez looked poor in his last fight after a layoff. Angelo acknowledges Benítez is a good underdog value because he may have shaken off ring rust.

Cody picks Benítez as a dog, citing his technical striking and volume. He notes Maheshate is low-volume and relies on one-punch power. He believes Benítez's experience and durability (if chin holds) will allow him to outwork Maheshate.

Daniel believes Maheshate belongs at UFC level, while Benítez is a gatekeeper who loses to fighters who belong. He notes Maheshate's right-side strikes (hand, high kick, knee) will be key against the southpaw Benítez. He predicts a knockout from the right side, possibly a right hand or high kick.

Maheshate has a 4-inch height advantage and similar reach, and his ability to establish range with footwork and straight shots down the middle will cause Benítez trouble. He has aligned himself with Fight Ready MMA, which has solid striking coaches. I expect Maheshate to counter Benítez effectively and line up a knockout shot, putting him back into winning ways.

Paul also picks Benítez, noting his high volume and takedown defense. He thinks Maheshate's low output plays into Benítez's hands, and that Benítez can win by decision if he avoids Maheshate's power. He acknowledges Benítez's chin issues but believes his volume will carry him.

The MMA Guru picks Maheshate to win by TKO in the third round. He notes that Maheshate has shown composure and a willingness to do whatever it takes to win, including eye pokes and takedowns when being outstruck. He criticizes Gabriel Benítez for falling apart in fights and lacking finishing ability, as seen in his failure to put away Billy Quarantillo. The Guru believes Maheshate is hungrier and more technical on the feet.