Zac Pauga

Angelo criticizes Zac Pauga for lacking urgency and a game plan in the cage, despite having skills. He notes Pauga has become a striker in the UFC and hasn't shown his pre-UFC wrestling. Bogdan Guskov is described as heavy-handed, with good footwork and combinations, and patience on top. Angelo believes Guskov is the more dangerous fighter and picks him, though he will monitor the odds.

Big Brady picks Bogdan Guskov to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pauga is the worst finisher in UFC history and has poor striking defense and chin, while Guskov is a one-round banger who will try to take his head off. He calls it a 50-50 fight but favors Guskov's power and aggression.

Cody picks Pauga, noting Guskov is a one-dimensional power puncher with poor cardio and takedown defense. Pauga has decent cardio and can grind out a win by controlling against the cage. Cody thinks Pauga will survive the early storm and take over in later rounds, possibly by knockout.

Pauga is more well-rounded and should be able to grind Guskov up against the cage, similar to his fight against Jordan Wright. Guskov relies heavily on early knockout power and has poor durability if he doesn't get the finish. Pauga's grinding style should wear on Guskov, leading to a late finish or decision. However, Pauga's chin is a concern if he eats early shots.

Paul also picks Pauga, agreeing that Guskov is a can crusher with no chin. He notes Pauga's experience against bigger men and his ability to implement a grinding game plan. Paul expects Pauga to wear on Guskov and get a finish or decision.

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas because he is the more technical striker and this is mostly a striking matchup. He notes that if Zac Pauga could wrestle effectively, he'd be the easy pick, but Pauga hasn't shown that wrestling in the UFC. However, Angelo acknowledges there is a world where Pauga holds Bukauskas against the cage for 15 minutes and wins a decision, so he does not place a bet.

Big Brady picks Zac Pauga to win by decision, but he is very low on both fighters. He criticizes Bukauskas for low volume and power, and Pauga for taking Jordan Wright to a decision, which he calls a terrible look. However, Pauga throws more volume and has solid cardio. Brady thinks Pauga can hold Bukauskas against the cage and potentially take him down, as Bukauskas has struggled with takedown defense in the past. He expects a boring fight with Pauga winning a close decision.

Cody is confident in Bukauskas, citing his speed, striking advantage, and improved cardio since returning to the UFC. He notes that Pauga's only notable win is a decision over Jordan Wright, which was uninspiring, and that Pauga is 35 with only three years of pro experience. Cody thinks Bukauskas will outwork Pauga and possibly get a TKO in the second or third round.

Connor picks Bukauskas, acknowledging his limited boxing but noting his athleticism and size. He believes Bukauskas has improved his aggression and output, as seen in the Tyson Pedro fight. Connor expects Bukauskas to use his reach and movement to outwork Pauga, who lacks dynamic speed. He thinks Bukauskas will win by decision or late stoppage.

Daniel Levi leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing his size, length, and experience. He notes Pauga's greenness and that the UFC may be setting up Bukauskas as a prospect. He thinks Bukauskas could win by knockout. However, he is not interested in betting at -200 and sees it as a pass at current odds.

Pauga has a good enough striking and overall MMA game to tie up Bukauskas in the clinch, drag him to the ground, and do damage from top. He has good cardio to maintain this for 15 minutes. Bukauskas is overhyped due to recency bias from his win over Tyson Pedro. Pauga is a solid underdog at plus 165. Pauga wins by decision.

Paul agrees, noting that Pauga's win over Jordan Wright was terrible and that he will be picking against Pauga for the rest of eternity. He thinks Bukauskas is younger, more experienced, and has rebuilt himself after a knee injury. Paul expects Bukauskas to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing a massive advantage at range on the feet against Zac Pauga. He notes Pauga was on one of the worst seasons of TUF and lacks skill at range, while Bukauskas is technical with good footwork. He also mentions Bukauskas has improved since his first UFC stint, with a win over Tyson Pedro on short notice and a controversial loss to Khalil Rountree. He believes Bukauskas is reborn and will continue his momentum.

Angelo is confident in Pauga, citing his strong wrestling and low stance. He notes Pauga went up to heavyweight for TUF but is a natural light heavyweight. Jordan Wright has a 100% finish rate but is on a three-fight losing streak by stoppage and has a weak chin. Angelo thinks Pauga will wrestle and win, but there's no value in the betting line so he won't bet.

Big Brady is picking Jordan Wright for the upset, despite never picking him before. He notes that Pauga was knocked out by Muhammad Usman, who is not a power puncher, and that Pauga has only a 20% finish rate. He believes Wright is dangerous in the first two minutes and should come out aggressively rather than wrestling, as his cardio is poor. He predicts a first-round knockout for Wright.

Cody picks Pauga but is terrified of the -270 line. He notes Jordan Wright has only 5-6 minutes of cardio and is an under machine, but Pauga isn't a big finisher. He says Wright can absolutely get finishes early, so he'll watch weigh-ins closely. He compares Wright to Terence McKinney as a 50/50 fighter who either finishes early or gets pieced up. He also mentions Pauga got knocked out in his last fight and has been hurt before, so he's not confident.

Connor picks Wright because he thinks the move to light heavyweight could benefit Wright's speed and power, and Pauga is inexperienced and slow. However, he acknowledges Wright's mental fragility and tendency to panic. He picks Wright to win by first-round KO, but says he wouldn't bet on it.

Jacob picks Pauga but is a Jordan Wright fan. He thinks Wright's chin is gone and his blitzing style leaves him open. Pauga's wrestling and power at 205 should be too much. Jacob played the under 1.5 rounds and feels good about it, though he cautions both are coming off knockout losses. He expects Wright to get knocked out again.

Pauga has better cardio and a more complete MMA game, while Wright fades after the first round and has durability issues. Pauga can survive the early storm and then take over with grappling and pressure, finishing Wright via ground and pound in the second or third round.

Paul agrees with Cody, calling Jordan Wright a lost fighter with no cardio or durability. He details Wright's pattern of starting fast but fading and getting finished. He notes Pauga has excellent cardio, trains at altitude, and has enough striking to pressure Wright. However, he says the -270 line is too high for a guy with one UFC win who got knocked out. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds at -350 as a parlay piece.

The MMA Guru picks Zac Pauga, citing his takedown defense from The Ultimate Fighter and his size advantage. He criticizes Jordan Wright's poor decision-making and quick turnaround after a KO loss. He believes Pauga is patient and can catch Wright with a counter shot after Wright gets reckless in round two, predicting a KO. He notes the possibility of an upset but trusts Pauga's chin more.

Angelo has a slight lean towards Mohammed Usman due to his size, power, and physicality. He notes that Pauga is the better overall fighter but his size disadvantage at heavyweight could be decisive. He references Pauga being dropped by Terence Jacquez and believes a similar shot from Usman could finish him. However, he acknowledges Usman has had issues with wrestlers in the past.

Big Brady picks Zac Pauga, noting his speed and cardio advantages over Mohammed Usman. He criticizes Usman's low volume and poor cardio, and praises Pauga's takedown defense and improved striking. He predicts Pauga will stuff takedowns and win a decision, though he notes Pauga is undersized for heavyweight. He also mentions Pauga's training at Elevation Fight Team with Curtis Blaydes.

Cody also picks Pauga, highlighting his undefeated record and clean performances on TUF. He notes that Pauga is a natural 205-pounder who moved up for the show and will likely move back down. Cody contrasts Pauga's refined skills with Usman's poor losses and questionable wins, including a controversial decision. He believes Pauga's speed and output will overwhelm Usman.

Paul picks Pauga, noting that Pauga is a former football player with good mobility and athleticism. He mentions that Pauga looked impressive on The Ultimate Fighter, throwing spinning attacks and showing improvement. Paul is wary of laying -250 on a debuting heavyweight but sees Pauga as the clear pick.