Francisco Prado

1-5
Record
Age / DOB 23
(Jun 16, 2002)
Height 5' 10"
Weight 170 lbs.
Reach 69.0"
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages
4.09 Sig. Strikes / Min
43.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
4.95 Absorbed / Min
54.0% Strike Defense
0.94 TD Avg / 15 min
19.0% TD Accuracy
50.0% TD Defense
0.5 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (1)
KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 0
Loss Methods (5)
KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 5

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
UFC 327
Apr 11, 2026
Decision R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Radtke 0 24 of 47 51% 121 of 164 4 of 5 80% 0 0 9:07
Francisco Prado 0 29 of 66 43% 41 of 79 0 of 0 --- 2 2 1:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Radtke 0 7 of 11 63% 40 of 49 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:50
Francisco Prado 0 8 of 10 80% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Charles Radtke 0 5 of 8 62% 41 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:09
Francisco Prado 0 10 of 22 45% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:40
3 Charles Radtke 0 12 of 28 42% 40 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:08
Francisco Prado 0 11 of 34 32% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Radtke 24 of 47 51% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 33 1 of 1 9 of 13
Francisco Prado 29 of 66 43% 16 of 46 9 of 12 4 of 8 17 of 45 1 of 3 11 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Radtke 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7
Francisco Prado 8 of 10 80% 2 of 4 3 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Radtke 5 of 8 62% 5 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3
Francisco Prado 10 of 22 45% 7 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 2 1 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 14
3 Charles Radtke 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 24 1 of 1 2 of 3
Francisco Prado 11 of 34 32% 7 of 25 3 of 6 1 of 3 8 of 27 1 of 3 2 of 4
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Angelo picks Charlie Radtke, citing his athletic grappling, powerful striking, and controlling ground game. He notes Radtke's tendency to slow down and be hittable but believes he has more tools than Prado. He expects a decision win, acknowledging Prado's toughness and durability despite his losing streak.

"Charlie has more tools in the bag if he can keep his pace, if he can keep his cardio. I think he can win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady is not high on Prado, noting he is undersized for welterweight and has only one UFC win. He thinks Radtke will be the bigger, stronger, more physical fighter with wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He expects Radtke to take down Prado and win by decision, as Prado is durable and has never been finished.

decision
"Give me Radtke and Radtke by decision in the first fight of the night."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Cody also picks Prado, noting Radtke's low output and Prado's improved wrestling. He thinks Prado can scramble back to his feet and land damaging shots.

"I'm going to take me some action there... Prao money line."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Connor picks Radtke based on his wrestling advantage and range tools. He notes that Prado's wrestling is terrible and Radtke can outwrestle him. He acknowledges Radtke's lack of durability but trusts his ability to control the fight with takedowns.

"I have to pick Radke to win it. Like by having any range tools by having, yeah, even just a check, a left hook that he likes to throw."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Daniel thinks Radtke has plateaued and is a finished product, while Prado is young, durable, and improving. He expects Prado to be too tough and enthusiastic.

"I'm going to go Francisco Prada to get back on track."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Radtke, believing he will dominate. He notes that Radtke is a full-sized welterweight with good cardio and fight IQ, while Prado is moving up and has not shown high-level skills. He thinks Radtke will win clear rounds, possibly by decision.

"I like Radke a lot here. And I think it's just going to be domination."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

James picks Radtke based on his grappling advantage, though he notes Radtke's weight cut issues. He expects a decision win via control.

"I'll pick Charles Raky via decision as of now."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Radtke's grappling and pressure should be enough to outwork Prado. Prado has a better gas tank and takedown defense than Radtke's last opponent, but Radtke's clinch and BJJ are strong. Prado's striking is his best path, but he often grapples unnecessarily. Radtke can grind out a decision, though the line is a bit steep for confidence.

Radtke wins by decision
"I still think he has a good enough shot to keeping this fight on his terms and that should lead to him grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Paul picks Prado as an underdog, believing his power and durability can overcome Radtke's low-volume wrestling. He thinks Prado can land a big shot or win a decision.

"I'm going to take me some action there... Prao money line."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

The MMA Guru picks Charles Radtke over Francisco Prado. He notes that Prado has lost four in a row and is a bit basic with a Mike Tyson style that hasn't worked at welterweight. Radtke has KO power and looked good against Brenneman, with a wrestling advantage and improved stand-up training with Belal Muhammad. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Radtke.

"I'm going to pick him to win this one. I am."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Zane picks Radtke, agreeing that his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Prado is durable but walks blindly into people, making him easy to take down. He acknowledges Radtke's chin issues but trusts his wrestling to secure the win.

"I'll take Radky for the wrestling advantage."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikolay Veretennikov 0 47 of 77 61% 64 of 94 3 of 10 30% 1 0 6:49
Francisco Prado 0 56 of 105 53% 84 of 133 2 of 6 33% 0 1 2:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikolay Veretennikov 0 7 of 9 77% 11 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:59
Francisco Prado 0 17 of 28 60% 36 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:04
2 Nikolay Veretennikov 0 24 of 43 55% 32 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:55
Francisco Prado 0 26 of 55 47% 32 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nikolay Veretennikov 0 16 of 25 64% 21 of 30 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:55
Francisco Prado 0 13 of 22 59% 16 of 25 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikolay Veretennikov 47 of 77 61% 34 of 58 5 of 11 8 of 8 34 of 62 5 of 5 8 of 10
Francisco Prado 56 of 105 53% 32 of 78 21 of 24 3 of 3 34 of 75 15 of 17 7 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikolay Veretennikov 7 of 9 77% 4 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 17 of 28 60% 8 of 19 8 of 8 1 of 1 8 of 13 5 of 6 4 of 9
2 Nikolay Veretennikov 24 of 43 55% 16 of 31 2 of 6 6 of 6 22 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 1
Francisco Prado 26 of 55 47% 15 of 43 10 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 47 7 of 7 1 of 1
3 Nikolay Veretennikov 16 of 25 64% 14 of 21 1 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 7 of 9
Francisco Prado 13 of 22 59% 9 of 16 3 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 15 3 of 4 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prado (-148), Veretennikov (+124)

Round 1
Coming to the promotion two years ago with a head full of steam, then-21-year-old Prado (12-3, 1-3 UFC) has largely struggled, earning one victory among three deflating losses. He takes a much-needed step back in level of competition when he faces Veretennikov (12-6, 0-2 UFC), who lost on the 2021 season of the Contender Series and worked his way into the promotion with a trio of stoppages. Since then, not so much for the man fighting out of Kings MMA. The welterweight clash, a historic battle between Argentina and Kazakhstan, will be overseen by referee Jason Herzog. They clap hands to get started.
Prado marches his man down hurling a leg kick, and on the counter, he charges to tackle Veretennikov down to the ground. In the first 15 seconds, Prado has assumed half guard, keeping Veretennikov flat on his back while looping his left arm around the head for an arm-triangle choke setup. Prado is on half guard on the other side, and Veretennikov defends with a guillotine choke off his back. This is not a wise decision, as Prado cinches up the counter in the form of a Von Flue—or as we call it on the play-by-play, Von Preux—which forces a wild scramble. Prado spins around to north-south position, and he winds up taking Veretennikov’s back momentarily. Prado willingly turns over to his back to lace up a triangle choke, while Veretennikov comfortably sits on him landing body shots. Prado keeps his legs high even if they may not be quite long enough to lock it up from this position. He transitions to an armbar, and Veretennikov lifts him in the air and violently slams him on his face to break up the submission.
Prado appears to be stunned from the slam, and Veretennikov stands over him dropping down hammers until moving himself back into Prado’s guard. The strikes from above have caused some damage on Prado’s forehead, and he keeps his guard open until Veretennikov stands. Prado just stands back up to follow him, and he takes two stiff knees to the body when pushing forward. Veretennikov connects with two punches and a body kick, and he walks through ha left hand to work the body with several more strikes. Veretennikov spins with a wheel kick to the side of the dome, and he plants his feet and knees the Argentinian in the midsection once more. Prado looks for a takedown, and Veretennikov breaks out of the first effort. Prado transitions from double to single as he looks for a takedown with Veretennikov’s back on the fence, and Veretennikov defends the attempt and tries to counter-throw his adversary to the mat. Veretennikov gives him a few more knees to think about until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Veretennikov

Round 2
The fighters get right to business to start off the second round. Prado appears to already be flagging a bit, while Veretennikov is sharp as a tack. He clips Prado with a short burst of punches, shaking up Prado but not forcing him to back again. Instead, Prado doggedly pursues a double, and he lifts Veretennikov up but cannot ground him. Prado is forced to disengage, and he measures a strong calf kick that forces Veretennikov to recoil his leg. Prado uses that success to land a few more strikes, and he allows Veretennikov to spin with a kick. Prado grabs him from behind and suplexes him, turning himself around to assume half guard while Veretennikov has an arm around his neck. Like the last round, this opens Veretennikov up to a Von Flue shoulder choke again.
Veretennikov release his own grip before getting trapped, and Prado blasts him in the face with an elbow that bounces his head off the canvas. Prado stays heavy, smothering Veretennikov with chest-to-chest pressure. Only lifting himself up to strike or set something up, Prado pursues the arm-triangle once more. Veretennikov explodes to turn out of the sub and power back to his feet, and Prado chases him upright. The ground strikes from Prado open a cut on the side of Veretennikov’s eye, but he pays it no mind as he slams his fist on Prado’s body. Prado retaliates with a six-punch flurry ending with one to the liver. Veretennikov shrugs them off and lets fly a high kick, hopping back to avoid another body shot but still taking some damage on the way. Prado dodges a high kick, eats a right hand and fires one back up top. Veretennikov scores a few knees, trips Prado up but does not ground him. They land blows at the same time, with Prado’s the heavier of the two. Veretennikov scores a single body kick before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prado
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prado
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Prado

Round 3
There is a glove touch to open the final frame. Prado surges into action, ignoring a low kick to loop a pair of punches over the top. Prado fakes up top to shoot in on the hips, getting hold of a single and lifting Veretennikov in the air. Veretennikov is able to turn him about mid-air to put the Argentinian on his back, but he is quick to bail on the grappling to stand up. Prado follows him with another takedown shot, abandoning to bash Veretennikov with an elbow and a thumping low kick that makes Veretennikov take a turn. Both men crash together letting fists fly, and Veretennikov tries to spin with a wheel kick but is so tired that Prado grips him from behind before the foot comes off the ground. Prado easily gets his foe down and advances to full mount with over three minutes left. Prado slashes down with 12-to-6 elbows, and he allows Veretennikov to turn partially so he can take his back. Prado attacks a choke before he gets a hook in, and he lets it go to drill down another elbow or two.
Veretennikov fights back to his feet, shaking Prado off his back, and he goes to the well with a failed spin kick that results him in getting taken down again. The two scramble, with Prado standing first and trying to get hold of another takedown from the side. Prado settles for a knee to the jaw with Veretennikov leaned over, and he drops down in pursuit of a single. Veretennikov stifles the attempt and looks for his own trip, kneeing Prado in the belly when he does not ground the Argentinian. Veretennikov jumps guard for a guillotine choke, and Prado takes advantage of this play by stepping over to half guard to set up a Von Preux again. Prado pulls his neck out and calms himself down with 20-ish seconds to go. Rather than go for broke and allow Veretennikov to get back up, he wraps up the fight with some moderate ground-and-pound. For the first time tonight, the fighters go the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Prado (29-28 Prado)

The Official Result
Nikolay Veretennikov def. Francisco Prado via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Angelo picks Francisco Prado despite being too small for welterweight, because he can exploit Veretennikov's wrestling holes. He notes Prado's power and durability, and loves the -140 odds, calling it a discount due to Prado's last loss. He plans to bet on Prado.

Loves the minus 140 odds and says he'll probably throw a bet or two on Francisco Prado.
"Francisco Praau is the pick. I love the minus 140 odds and honestly probably gonna throw a bet or two on Francisco Pra here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Big Brady picks Nikolay Veretennikov, questioning Francisco Prado's decision to move up to welterweight. He notes Veretennikov's reach, technical striking, and better volume, while Prado is undersized with poor wrestling. He predicts Veretennikov wins by decision, calling the line questionable.

Veretennikov by decision
"I'm going to take Nikolai Veritenikov to win this fight and win it by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

The host cites Veretennikov's experience and strength of schedule advantage, and believes he can thwart Prado's power punching approach. He expects a full mixed martial arts performance and a win on the scorecards.

"Look for Vera Tanakov to put together a full mixed martial arts performance here to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

The MMA Guru picks Nikolay Veretennikov over Francisco Prado, arguing that Prado is not a welterweight and is too small for the division. He notes Prado's reach disadvantage (69" vs 74") and lack of power, while Veretennikov is well-rounded, taller, and rangier. The Guru believes Prado's game plan is predictable as a shorter fighter, and Veretennikov will win by decision or TKO.

"I'm going to go with Veretnikov getting this one done over Francisco Prao."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Matthews 0 68 of 184 36% 95 of 215 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Francisco Prado 0 59 of 146 40% 64 of 152 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Matthews 0 20 of 58 34% 23 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 22 of 57 38% 22 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:33
2 Jake Matthews 0 22 of 57 38% 39 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 18 of 41 43% 21 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:16
3 Jake Matthews 0 26 of 69 37% 33 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Francisco Prado 0 19 of 48 39% 21 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Matthews 68 of 184 36% 39 of 146 24 of 33 5 of 5 56 of 169 12 of 15 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 59 of 146 40% 17 of 92 19 of 28 23 of 26 47 of 132 11 of 13 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Matthews 20 of 58 34% 17 of 51 3 of 7 0 of 0 17 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 22 of 57 38% 5 of 34 9 of 12 8 of 11 18 of 52 3 of 4 1 of 1
2 Jake Matthews 22 of 57 38% 11 of 43 11 of 14 0 of 0 19 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 18 of 41 43% 5 of 25 4 of 7 9 of 9 13 of 35 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Jake Matthews 26 of 69 37% 11 of 52 10 of 12 5 of 5 20 of 62 6 of 7 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 19 of 48 39% 7 of 33 6 of 9 6 of 6 16 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-225), Prado (+185)

Round 1
It may be shocking to some that Matthews (20-7, 13-7 UFC) is 30 years of age, but he will be entering into his 21st UFC outing as the main card opens up. “The Celtic Kid” will have to tangle with Argentinian gunslinger Prado (12-2, 1-2 UFC), who has 12 career wins with six by submission and the other six via knockout. The welterweights will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who plans on keeping things on the up-and-up following the glove touch. Matthews jabs his way forward, skirting away from a low kick early. Matthews follows a jab with a right hand, and he dips to dodge a looping hook. Matthews steps in to mark up Prado with a sharp right hand, and Prado kicks and flips himself over to get back to his feet. Both men meet in the middle and throw massive leather, and Prado gets stunned momentarily but is ready and willing to keep brawling if the mood fits them. Matthews peels back, instead measuring with long, straight punches. Prado lunges at him and tries to spin with a back fist, but the strike goes wide. Prado gets in a low kick but rips the body with a right hand, and the two clash into a clinch that allows Matthews to bust Prado in the chops with uppercuts. Matthews pushes off and takes a body shot on the way out. Matthews strikes first and last in a combination, and he lets Prado escape out the side so he can time a body kick. They proceed to pop one another with simultaneous hooks, and Prado keeps sitting down on sheer power. The leg kicks are effective for the Argentinian, who escapes danger by a matter of millimeters as the two swing bad intentions at one another’s skull. Matthews finds his target with a piercing right hand again and again, damaging Prado’s face but not drawing blood. Prado rushes forward to get hold of a body lock, and he lowers the Aussie to his back with a falling slam. Matthews absorbs an elbow to prompt him to stand up quickly, and he engages in a short but fierce slugfest where he does cut open Prado’s right eyebrow. As the punches continue to come from Matthews, he chases his foe down until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and it is Matthews who cuts the cage off right off the bat. Prado is lured into a high-amplitude swing fest, with Matthews the faster, more accurate of the two. Prado uses a standing elbow to frame off, only for Matthews to pounce and split a cut open on the bridge of the nose. Prado keeps Matthews honest with his haymakers, but Matthews is defter and able to keep Prado on his back foot. Prado’s left hook still gets in, and his takedown shot is shoved aside. Prado drives a knee on the jaw, and he gets driven back by a fierce left hand. Prado slings a hard leg kick, but it is one-and-done as Matthews has him backing away. Prado rips a left to the liver and fakes a spin so he can shoot for a takedown, but Matthews is wise to it and punches him in the face in response. Matthews intercepts Prado coming in with an uppercut, and he has his takedown defense ready to shut down an entry. Prado succeeds in planting Matthews back against the fence, grinding on the veteran and working on him with knees and short shots. Matthews wraps up a possible submission setup, and he pushes Prado away to his preferred range. Matthews snaps the head back with a litany of uppercuts, and he parries a front kick when backing away. Matthews’ hands are sharp and active, putting several together every time Prado hurls one big one. Another exchange leads to a cut on the top of Prado’s hairline on the left side, and blood streams immediately into his eye. The horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 3
There is a clap of hands to open the final frame, and Matthews fights behind a jab to get inside. This leads to huge punches from both sides, and Matthews’ land first and cleaner. Prado goes to the body with a kick as he backs away, and he loops a right hand that Matthews is able to dodge. Matthews’ volume punching is forcing Prado to fight conservatively, and it allows Matthews to pick up on the timing when Prado loads up at him. Matthews strings two or three together as Prado snaps one punch off, and he slaps Prado in the face with the instep of his foot. The Argentinian shoots for a takedown in the open cage, and his effort is tossed aside without much wasted movement. Matthews sits down on two heavy left hands, blasting Prado in the jaw and stunning him two times in a row. Prado closes in to clinch and get his head back, only to lean too far down to absorb a knee on the chin. Matthews gets a little space and starts rattling off short combinations, while Prado is relegated to single power swings. Matthews dips and pops Prado with two right hands after evading a massive blow, and he lets Prado overswing so he can further touch him. Matthews leans far enough down to avoid two punches, and he opens up with a right hand that snaps the head back before clinching Prado. Prado backs away out of it and shoots for a takedown, and the two clash heads. Matthews grinds on his man against the fencing as seconds tick off the clock, hanging on with knees to the body and thigh until the match concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)

The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Francisco Prado via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews, citing his technical striking advantage and superior grappling. He notes that Prado is moving up a weight class and will be undersized. He also mentions the hometown advantage for Matthews in Australia. However, he acknowledges Matthews' inconsistency. Brady predicts a competitive decision win for Matthews.

"give me Matthews give me Matthews to win uh I think probably competitive decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing with Zane's analysis. He notes that Prado is a brawler who will walk into Matthews' shots. He adds that Matthews' back-foot boxing should work well. However, he hopes Prado can make it interesting by just swarming, but expects Matthews to win.

Same odds as Zane.
"I'm picking Matthews as well for the exact sort of framework you laid out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Matthews impressed with his ability to take opponents down in his last fight. He will mix striking and grappling to keep Prado on the defensive. The pick is for Matthews to win by decision.

decision
"I look for Matthews to put together a full body of work here to win this fight on the scorecards by mixing and striking and grappling to keep PR on the defensive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Zane picks Matthews, noting that Prado has no range game and poor defense. Matthews can potshot from the back foot and avoid Prado's hooks. He thinks Matthews' speed and technical boxing will be too much. However, he dislikes the booking because Matthews is a gatekeeper who should be fighting prospects, not getting favorable matchups.

Matthews opened at -209, currently -221; Prado opened at +182, currently +192.
"I'm going to pick Jake Matthews."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Zellhuber 0 120 of 272 44% 120 of 272 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Francisco Prado 0 90 of 246 36% 91 of 249 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Zellhuber 0 27 of 60 45% 27 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Francisco Prado 0 29 of 73 39% 29 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
2 Daniel Zellhuber 0 50 of 110 45% 50 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 32 of 88 36% 33 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Zellhuber 0 43 of 102 42% 43 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 29 of 85 34% 29 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Zellhuber 120 of 272 44% 87 of 228 25 of 36 8 of 8 117 of 268 3 of 4 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 90 of 246 36% 30 of 155 26 of 47 34 of 44 88 of 244 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Zellhuber 27 of 60 45% 14 of 41 9 of 15 4 of 4 27 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 29 of 73 39% 12 of 50 5 of 7 12 of 16 27 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Daniel Zellhuber 50 of 110 45% 42 of 100 8 of 10 0 of 0 48 of 108 2 of 2 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 32 of 88 36% 8 of 54 11 of 19 13 of 15 32 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Zellhuber 43 of 102 42% 31 of 87 8 of 11 4 of 4 42 of 101 1 of 1 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 29 of 85 34% 10 of 51 10 of 21 9 of 13 29 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Zellhuber as the more well-rounded fighter, citing his length, takedown defense, and ability to threaten submissions. He believes Zellhuber will avoid Prado's early storm and take over as Prado fades. He mentions a decision win is likely but also considers a no action bet.

decision no action bet (if Prado wins by KO, bet pays; if Zellhuber wins decision, refund)
"zel Huber should be able to avoid the early storm should be able to stay on the outside let PR exhaust himself and then take over"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision. He notes that Zellhuber is a hometown fighter from Mexico City and has a height and reach advantage. He likes Zellhuber's volume, cardio, and sneaky power and submission game. He is not high on Francisco Prado, who has fought lower-level competition. Brady expects the fight to be competitive but thinks Zellhuber will do enough to win a decision.

Fight goes to decision
"I like him to win the decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Cody picks Prado by KO in round 1, having bet that prop at +1300. He notes Zellhuber's chin is sketchy and he keeps his chin up, making him hittable. He thinks Prado's power could cause problems, though he admits Zellhuber has more intangibles. He is not touching the moneyline.

Prado by KO in round 1 (+1300)
"I'll pick per for the purpose of a pick I'll pick uh pra as well but uh but yeah I'm not going to be shocked if he loses on the money line"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host sees Zellhuber as an improving prospect with a rangy striking style and slick jiu-jitsu. He believes Zellhuber's footwork and straight shots will keep Prado from getting inside the pocket, and even if Prado tries to take it to the ground, his wrestling isn't good enough. He predicts Zellhuber will touch up Prado, possibly get a late finish, but ultimately win on the scorecards.

Possible late finish
"I think we see Z Huer touch up pra maybe get a late finish but I ultimately think zahu wins on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Paul picks Zellhuber, citing his superior volume, speed, length, and developing ground game. He notes Zellhuber's cast-iron chin and ability to take a punch to give back two or three. He believes Zellhuber's volume and range will overtake Prado, and he may mix in takedowns and grappling. He is backing Zellhuber.

"zel Huber should be the clear favorite which he is and uh I'm gonna be backing him"
TKO (punches) R1 4:05
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Prado 0 14 of 33 42% 16 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ottman Azaitar 1 38 of 57 66% 42 of 61 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Prado 0 14 of 33 42% 16 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ottman Azaitar 1 38 of 57 66% 42 of 61 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Prado 14 of 33 42% 6 of 20 7 of 11 1 of 2 12 of 28 2 of 5 0 of 0
Ottman Azaitar 38 of 57 66% 31 of 46 2 of 6 5 of 5 17 of 30 1 of 1 20 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Prado 14 of 33 42% 6 of 20 7 of 11 1 of 2 12 of 28 2 of 5 0 of 0
Ottman Azaitar 38 of 57 66% 31 of 46 2 of 6 5 of 5 17 of 30 1 of 1 20 of 26
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Angelo picks Francisco Prado, citing more tools in his bag and the fact that he wasn't knocked out eight months ago like Azaitar. He notes both are powerful strikers who will go at it recklessly. He recommends betting on the fight not going the distance, even if juiced at -350, as a parlay piece. He thinks Azaitar looked terrible in his last fight after a two-year layoff.

does not go the distance at -350, parlayable
"the pick's gonna be Francisco because I think it just has more tools in the bag and he also wasn't unconscious eight months ago lying on the Octagon floor"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar with little confidence, expecting a knockout. He notes Prado has a 100% finish rate but questionable striking defense, blocking punches with his face. Azaitar has power and can knock anyone out. He thinks someone gets knocked out, and he picks Azaitar to land a clean shot on Prado's 'massive head' and put him out in the first round.

First round knockout
"I'm gonna pick a zytar with little to no confidence um I think somebody's getting knocked out here ... I'm gonna take uh Optimus Eye Tattoo do the knocking out I'll say he hits the the massive head of Prado clean and puts him out here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Cody leans toward Azaitar at plus money, citing his better level of competition and knockout power. He thinks Azaitar's power in both hands is a threat and that Prado's cardio is unknown. He acknowledges Prado could take over if it goes past the first round, but prefers Azaitar as the pre-fight play at +100. He also considers a live bet on Prado if he survives the first round.

under 1.5 rounds; live bet on Prado if he survives first round
"I think I'm leaning towards the zaytard I think it's gonna be an absolute scrub under one and a half type fight someone's probably likely getting knocked out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

The host is surprised Azaitar is the underdog, citing his experience and knockout power. He thinks Prado is not ready for Azaitar's explosivity, having faced lower-level competition. He picks Azaitar by knockout, noting the under 1.5 rounds prop is also a good play.

Azaitar by knockout; under 1.5 rounds
"give me a zytar buy knockout but under one and a half probably the best way to go about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Paul picks Prado, citing youth and improvement. He thinks Prado's takedown defense is dreadful but his striking is solid and he hits hard. He expects Prado to have the chin to endure an early war and take over if it goes past the first round. He notes Azaitar is stiff and rigid in striking, and Prado's performance against Malarkey on short notice was promising.

looking for Prado props towards the under
"I'm gonna back the kid here I think ottman is a little bit stiff rigid and is striking... I'll go with youth in Prado"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

The MMA Guru picks Francisco Prado over Ottman Azaitar, highlighting Prado's early-round finishing ability, hand speed, and durability after a competitive loss to Jamie Mullarkey. He questions Azaitar's confidence after a KO loss and notes his age (33). He predicts Prado wins by first-round KO.

first round KO
"I think he's going to be more confident in the pocket than azitar and I think he's going to result in the first round KO for him"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 0 59 of 104 56% 78 of 126 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:47
Francisco Prado 0 28 of 75 37% 31 of 78 0 of 2 0% 1 1 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 0 15 of 20 75% 32 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:39
Francisco Prado 0 7 of 12 58% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 25 of 49 51% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 19 of 35 54% 21 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
Francisco Prado 0 8 of 25 32% 9 of 26 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 59 of 104 56% 28 of 70 13 of 14 18 of 20 49 of 92 0 of 0 10 of 12
Francisco Prado 28 of 75 37% 18 of 58 4 of 10 6 of 7 28 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 15 of 20 75% 10 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 8 of 9
Francisco Prado 7 of 12 58% 5 of 9 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jamie Mullarkey 25 of 49 51% 11 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 25 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 13 of 38 34% 7 of 28 1 of 4 5 of 6 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 19 of 35 54% 7 of 22 4 of 5 8 of 8 17 of 32 0 of 0 2 of 3
Francisco Prado 8 of 25 32% 6 of 21 2 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not confident, as he worries about Mullarkey's willingness to engage in a striking battle with the explosive Francisco Prado. He notes that Mullarkey should stick to grappling to avoid Prado's power, but the hometown crowd might encourage him to strike. He is not betting on Mullarkey at the current odds.

"the pick's gonna be Jamie malarkey I am not betting on Jamie Malarkey especially not at these odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Big Brady acknowledges Prado's danger early but thinks Mullarkey can weather the storm and break Prado in the second round. He compares it to Mullarkey's fight with Devonte Smith, where Mullarkey pressured and went to the body. He notes both are hittable but expects a finish, leaning Mullarkey by knockout in round 2.

second round knockout
"I'm leaning Malarkey in that second round to get that knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody is confident Mullarkey wins, citing Prado's low level of competition and questionable cardio. He notes Mullarkey is a proven UFC veteran who can grind out wins with takedowns and pressure. He thinks Prado's undefeated record is built on cans and he will be overwhelmed by the step up in competition.

"gotta go with Jamie cut the Malarkey but again it's just like the kind of price tag you don't overly want to pay"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Prado a certified can crusher with potential but lacking training. He notes that Mullarkey is a naturally aggressive fighter who doesn't know he's not good enough, which allows him to compete at a high level. Connor expects Mullarkey to dominate Prado everywhere.

"I don't have a lot to add to that breakdown. I think we tend we have a way we tend to go with certified can crushers."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Mullarkey's experience and cardio will be too much for the short-notice debutant Prado. Prado is athletic but green, and his success has come against lower competition. Mullarkey can weather the early storm, then take over with grappling and pressure. Prado will likely gas by the second round. Mullarkey's durability and length allow him to evade Prado's power shots. Expect a finish in the third round via TKO or submission.

"I think we'll see Malarkey evade those big shots I think we'll see Malarkey look to get his grappling going to try to keep protostatic try to stay away and nullify that big knockout power of Prado"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul agrees Mullarkey is the pick, noting Prado is young (20) and making a huge jump from regional scene to UFC pay-per-view. He thinks Mullarkey's experience and pressure will be too much. He is not excited about the -270 price but sees Mullarkey as a safe parlay piece.

"I'm with you malarkey"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over Francisco Prado, noting Mullarkey's toughness and improvement. He expects Prado to come out strong but fade, and Mullarkey to finish with knees to the body in the clinch in the second round, similar to his win over Devonte Smith.

second round KO via knees to the body
"I'm gonna go Jamie Malarkey TKO in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Zane picks Mullarkey confidently, stating that Prado is a manufactured prospect with padded record and cannot wrestle. He notes that Mullarkey is hyper-aggressive and will take Prado down and out-wrestle him. Zane also thinks Mullarkey's attitude will be a rude awakening for Prado, and that even on the feet, Mullarkey will shock Prado with his aggression.

"Francisco Prado says me talking about it. He's just gonna get mopped."