UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.

Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.

Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.

Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.

Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.

Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.

Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.

Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.

Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.

Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.

Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.

Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.

Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.

The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.

Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume jab and takedown defense. He notes that Randy Brown is a solid striker with reach and BJJ, but Jack's constant jab will disrupt Brown's rhythm. He warns that if Jack becomes a headhunter, Brown could find success, but he expects Jack to fight smart and win a decision.

Big Brady is high on Della Maddalena, citing his power, hand speed, and forward pressure. He acknowledges Brown's length and durability concerns but thinks Della Maddalena will close the distance and knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.

Cody is high on Della Maddalena, praising his volume, body work, and boxing technique. He notes Della Maddalena has finished all his UFC opponents by working the body and then landing kill shots. He thinks Randy Brown is hittable and will struggle with Della Maddalena's pressure and body attack. Despite the -300 price, he likes Della Maddalena stylistically.

Connor picks Della Maddalena, citing his relentless pressure and body punching as key advantages. He notes that Brown has a tendency to abandon his game plan and engage in brawls, which plays into Della Maddalena's strengths. Connor also mentions that Della Maddalena's combination punching and ability to mix targets will overwhelm Brown, who is inconsistent defensively. He acknowledges that Brown could win if he fights smart, but expects him to revert to bad habits.

Della Maddalena's combination striking and power will be too much for Brown. He mixes targets well (head and body) and has shown finishing ability with body shots. Brown's length and movement may cause early issues, but Della Maddalena will close distance and land. Brown's defensive grappling is solid but Della Maddalena's discipline and patience will allow him to find the knockout within the first 10 minutes. Expect a round two KO.

Paul agrees Della Maddalena is a rightful favorite, noting Brown is hittable and has been knocked down before. He mentions Brown's close fights and high strikes absorbed. However, he avoids betting -300 lines and thinks inside the distance is already minus money, so he'll pass on betting.

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Randy Brown, praising his unique boxing style and head movement. He expects a first-round TKO via body-head combinations against the cage. He notes Brown has been finished recently and is older, but admits the odds are too high and sees some value in Brown.

Zane also picks Della Maddalena, emphasizing his pressure and body work. He notes that Brown is prone to getting distracted and fighting his opponent's fight, which will be fatal against a relentless fighter like Della Maddalena. Zane highlights that Della Maddalena's ability to mix punches to the body and head will exploit Brown's tall frame. He also mentions that Brown's best chance is to keep the fight at range, but he likely won't maintain that discipline.

Angelo picks Parker Porter, defending him against criticism and highlighting his volume striking and footwork. He notes that Justin Tafa has power and a chin but lacks footwork and grappling. He expects Porter to use movement and volume to outpoint Tafa, though he acknowledges the risk of a Tafa knockout. He has a half-unit bet on Porter at +125 and suggests betting on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision as props.

Big Brady calls this a mess of a fight but picks Porter as the minute winner with higher volume and grappling upside. He notes Tafa has power and could knock Porter out, but thinks Porter's cardio and wrestling give him the edge. He predicts a decision win for Porter.

Cody picks Porter as a dog, citing Tafa's one-dimensional kickboxing and poor performances against Jared Vanderaa. He notes Porter has multiple paths: wrestling takedowns and top control, or volume striking. He mentions Porter's wins over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman show he can land heavy volume. He thinks Porter by decision is a good prop at +350.

Connor picks Tafa hesitantly, citing his power and athletic potential. He notes that Porter is durable but gets hurt badly in every fight, and Tafa has the power to finish. Connor acknowledges that Porter's pace and volume could overwhelm Tafa if he doesn't land early, but he's willing to take a flyer on Tafa's explosiveness. He also mentions that Tafa has shown flashes of improvement.

Porter has good footwork, combinations, and a sneaky wrestling game. Tafa has huge power but poor footwork and can be outpointed, as seen against Vandera. Porter can mix in takedowns to control Tafa on the ground. Tafa's takedown defense is untested (only faced two takedown attempts). Porter's durability and cardio should allow him to outwork Tafa over 15 minutes. However, Tafa's power is a constant threat.

Paul leans toward Porter but is not fully committed. He sees the fight as a low-level heavyweight bout likely going to decision, and considers Porter by decision at +350. He notes Tafa's lack of volume and Porter's ability to outwork him. He may dabble on the decision prop.

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa over Parker Porter, noting Tafa's power and youth. He believes Tafa will catch Porter in a scrappy fight and finish him by KO at the end of round one. He dismisses Porter's wins as unimpressive and notes his age and damage taken.

Zane picks Porter, citing his consistency and ability to survive early storms. He notes that Porter is a pace fighter who can take a shot and come back, while Tafa is low-output and one-dimensional. Zane acknowledges that Porter will likely get hurt badly, but he trusts Porter's durability and experience to grind out a win. He also mentions that Porter's jab and volume will be key.

Angelo picks Alonzo Menifield, despite acknowledging his sloppy striking, because of his excellent takedown defense and power. He expects Jimmy Crute to grapple early, but Menifield's 85% takedown defense should hold up, allowing him to land big shots. He has a small bet on Menifield at +185 and will include him in a Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry.

Big Brady picks the underdog Menifield, citing Crute's poor fight IQ and Menifield's explosive power and takedown defense. He thinks if Crute tries to strike, Menifield can knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout for Menifield but admits he loses money on both fighters.

Cody picks Crute but with low confidence due to Crute's long layoff and knee injury. He notes Crute has great skills but is hittable and durability is a question. He sees Menifield as a live underdog with power and decent takedown defense. He thinks Crute's path is takedowns and control, but Menifield could land a big shot.

Connor picks Crute, noting that Menifield tends to shut down when pressured. He highlights that Crute's aggressive, high-volume style will overwhelm Menifield, who lacks defensive depth and counter-punching ability. Connor also mentions that Crute's wrestling and kicks will create opportunities, and that Menifield's poor reactions to getting hit will be exploited. He acknowledges Crute's flaws but sees Menifield's mental fragility as a bigger issue.

Crute's kicking game and cardio will be key. He can stay on the outside and avoid Menifield's power. Menifield slows down in later rounds and has poor cardio. Crute's BJJ is a threat if it goes to the ground, but he likely keeps it standing and outpoints Menifield. Crute has made life changes and looks in phenomenal shape. Menifield's only path is an early KO, but Crute's movement and kicks should neutralize that.

Paul took Menifield at +180, citing Crute's long layoff, fragility, and Menifield's power. He worries about Menifield's gas tank but thinks the price is worth the risk. He notes Menifield has decent takedown defense and submission game if taken down.

The MMA Guru picks Alonzo Menifield as an underdog over Jimmy Crute, citing Menifield's power and recent KO wins. He worries Crute will test his stand-up too long and get caught, predicting a first-round KO for Menifield. He notes Crute's grappling is elite but expects him to be too confident on the feet.

Zane also picks Crute, agreeing that Menifield's tendency to freeze under pressure is a key factor. He notes that Crute's constant forward pressure and power shots will likely cause Menifield to hesitate and become defensive. Zane also points out that Menifield is not a good counter-puncher and struggles when forced to fight off the back foot. He believes Crute's aggression will be rewarded.

Angelo picks Tyson Pedro despite acknowledging the line movement from -1000 to -250, which he attributes to sharp bettors. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas is the better striker with solid takedown defense, but Pedro's grappling and power could be decisive. However, he is not confident enough to bet on Pedro at the current odds, though he may include him in a Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry.

Big Brady is not a fan of either fighter but thinks Pedro has enough power to knock out Bukauskas, who has been knocked out multiple times. He expects Bukauskas to be winning until he gets caught. He predicts a first-round knockout for Pedro but says he's staying away from betting.

Cody picks Pedro but is not confident due to the -240 price and Pedro's untested competition since returning. He notes Pedro's striking looks improved and his grappling may have gotten better during time off. He thinks Bukauskas is one-dimensional and Pedro can stay outside and be aggressive. However, he calls Pedro a fraud and won't bet him.

Connor picks Pedro, believing that his improved feinting will be enough to confuse Bukauskas and allow Pedro to pick up wins he should be getting. He thinks Pedro's feints will throw a huge wrench in Bukauskas's game, as Bukauskas tends to bite on feints and is not good at responding to pressure. Connor acknowledges that Pedro hasn't faced a decent boxer yet, but he thinks the feints are a significant improvement.

Bukauskas is the better technical striker and has shown he can be competitive at UFC level (close fight with Mihajlovic). Pedro's wins over Villanueva and Hunsucker are over low-level competition. Pedro's wrestling is unimpressive and he gassed against Shogun. Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and outpoint Pedro. The odds opened at -1000 for Pedro, creating value on Bukauskas at +600. Durability is a slight concern but Bukauskas should win a decision.

Paul picks Pedro but dislikes the -240 line. He notes Pedro has never landed a takedown in the UFC and his wins are over low-level opponents. He thinks Bukauskas could pull an upset but Pedro is the official pick. He won't bet it.

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Modestas Bukauskas, noting Bukauskas's recent KO win but concerns about his chin and taking the fight on short notice. He believes Pedro's leg kicks and confidence will lead to a first-round KO, as Bukauskas has been chinned before.

Zane picks Bukauskas because he is a calm fighter who can keep up a decent pace and is more reliable in deep waters than Pedro, who tends to blow up when he can't crush someone early. He notes that Bukauskas is capable of staying in the fight and that Pedro's improvements (like feints) haven't been tested against decent opponents. However, he is hesitant because Bukauskas is not a fighter who creates cracks and wedges them open; he is too patient and passive.

Angelo leans towards Josh Culibao, citing his impressive striking defense in his last fight and speed advantage. He notes that Melsik Baghdasaryan has raw power but struggled against a short-notice opponent. He expects a close fight and suggests betting on the plus 3.5 points line for the underdog, as it's likely a 29-28 decision.

Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and has no strong lean. He picks Baghdasaryan as the better striker with more tools on the feet, but notes Baghdasaryan's cardio issues. He expects a close decision, possibly split, and acknowledges Culibao's underrated skills.

Cody picks Culibao, noting he is young (28) and has shown power and wrestling. He thinks Culibao can mix in takedowns and pressure, and has the crowd on his side. He is not confident because Culibao is even money and he doesn't like betting him at that price. He sees Baghdasaryan as one-dimensional and injury-prone.

Connor picks Culibao, emphasizing that Baghdasaryan's kicks are not a great way to maintain distance and that Culibao can pressure him, put a pace on him, and work his boxing. He notes that Baghdasaryan resets after every strike, giving Culibao opportunities to counter. Connor also points out that Culibao has remarkable poise and determination, and that Baghdasaryan's fights often look closer than they should because he doesn't finish people.

Baghdasaryan has heavy hands and good power. Culibao's pressure style could walk into a knockout. Baghdasaryan has shown discipline and patience, finishing Colin England in round two. Culibao is durable but has been hurt before. Baghdasaryan's power should be the difference early. If it goes longer, Culibao's pressure could cause issues, but Baghdasaryan likely lands a big shot in the first round.

Paul slightly leans Baghdasaryan if the fight becomes a 15-minute standup battle, citing his more complex striking and higher volume. He notes Culibao's low output in recent fights. However, he is not betting the fight and rates neither fighter's wrestling highly.

The MMA Guru picks Melsik Baghdasaryan over Josh Culibao, noting that Culibao's success comes from opponents getting wild, while Baghdasaryan is composed and fundamental. He expects a tactical fight with Baghdasaryan winning by decision 29-28, landing more strikes without getting into scrambles.

Zane picks Culibao because he is a prepared and disciplined fighter who sticks to his game plan. He notes that Culibao has a knack for creating gritty wins and that Baghdasaryan's kicking-heavy style is vulnerable to pressure and clinch work. Zane believes Culibao can crash through Baghdasaryan's range, take him down, or grind him against the fence, and that Baghdasaryan's finishing ability has dried up at the UFC level.

Angelo picks Kleydson Rodrigues but with low confidence, noting that Shannon Ross is a tough, hittable fighter who will apply constant pressure. He worries that Rodrigues might fold under pressure and lose a close decision, as in his previous fight. He expects Ross to headhunt for the home crowd, which could play into Rodrigues' hands.

Big Brady acknowledges Ross's potential but thinks Ross is hittable and not durable. He likes Rodrigues' power and striking, predicting a second-round knockout. He notes that Ross had health issues in his last fight but still expects Rodrigues to get back on track with a finish.

Cody picks Rodrigues but is wary after Rodrigues lost as a -360 favorite against CJ Vergara. He notes Rodrigues has takedown defense issues and fights to the level of his opponent. He thinks Ross has durability problems after being dropped three times by Vinicius Salvador. He considers the under on rounds or fight doesn't go to decision.

Connor picks Rodrigues, believing in his potential and power. He notes that Ross is hittable and has durability issues, and that Rodrigues has the power to hurt him. Connor acknowledges that Rodrigues looked timid against Vergara but still threw heat all fight. He thinks Rodrigues can win via athletic cheating, possibly landing a wild kick after losing the first round.

Ross can replicate Vergara's game plan: crash the pocket, pressure, and grapple. Rodrigues has cardio issues when pressured and prefers kicking from distance. Ross's forward pressure and big punches should wear Rodrigues down as the fight goes on. Durability is a question for Ross, but Rodrigues isn't a heavy hitter with his hands. Ross likely wins a decision after a tough first round.

Paul picks Rodrigues but is not confident. He notes Ross's poor durability and the fact that Ross lost to Vinicius Salvador as a favorite. He thinks Rodrigues has better grappling and volume, but the -320 price is too high. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a potential play.

The MMA Guru picks Kleydson Rodrigues over Shannon Ross, criticizing Ross's entry into the UFC after a loss on the contender series. He believes Rodrigues is dangerous on the feet and will find a TKO finish, possibly a head kick in the first round. He notes Ross has been submitted early in his career.

Zane picks Ross, citing Rodrigues' inexperience and rough style matchup. He notes that Ross is aggressive and will stay in Rodrigues' face, finding wrestling opportunities, while Rodrigues has not learned to deal with pressure and tends to fire off kicks when pressured. Zane acknowledges that Ross is not impressive but thinks Rodrigues is not ready yet.

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not confident, as he worries about Mullarkey's willingness to engage in a striking battle with the explosive Francisco Prado. He notes that Mullarkey should stick to grappling to avoid Prado's power, but the hometown crowd might encourage him to strike. He is not betting on Mullarkey at the current odds.

Big Brady acknowledges Prado's danger early but thinks Mullarkey can weather the storm and break Prado in the second round. He compares it to Mullarkey's fight with Devonte Smith, where Mullarkey pressured and went to the body. He notes both are hittable but expects a finish, leaning Mullarkey by knockout in round 2.

Cody is confident Mullarkey wins, citing Prado's low level of competition and questionable cardio. He notes Mullarkey is a proven UFC veteran who can grind out wins with takedowns and pressure. He thinks Prado's undefeated record is built on cans and he will be overwhelmed by the step up in competition.

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Prado a certified can crusher with potential but lacking training. He notes that Mullarkey is a naturally aggressive fighter who doesn't know he's not good enough, which allows him to compete at a high level. Connor expects Mullarkey to dominate Prado everywhere.

Mullarkey's experience and cardio will be too much for the short-notice debutant Prado. Prado is athletic but green, and his success has come against lower competition. Mullarkey can weather the early storm, then take over with grappling and pressure. Prado will likely gas by the second round. Mullarkey's durability and length allow him to evade Prado's power shots. Expect a finish in the third round via TKO or submission.

Paul agrees Mullarkey is the pick, noting Prado is young (20) and making a huge jump from regional scene to UFC pay-per-view. He thinks Mullarkey's experience and pressure will be too much. He is not excited about the -270 price but sees Mullarkey as a safe parlay piece.

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over Francisco Prado, noting Mullarkey's toughness and improvement. He expects Prado to come out strong but fade, and Mullarkey to finish with knees to the body in the clinch in the second round, similar to his win over Devonte Smith.

Zane picks Mullarkey confidently, stating that Prado is a manufactured prospect with padded record and cannot wrestle. He notes that Mullarkey is hyper-aggressive and will take Prado down and out-wrestle him. Zane also thinks Mullarkey's attitude will be a rude awakening for Prado, and that even on the feet, Mullarkey will shock Prado with his aggression.

Angelo picks Jack Jenkins, describing him as a powerful striker with multiple tools, though he notes Jenkins can be stiff and doesn't flow smoothly between striking and grappling. He believes Jenkins' power and leg kicks will be too much for Don Shainis, who is tough but limited. He considers it a safe bet but wants to see Jenkins mix his skills more.

Big Brady thinks Jenkins is a solid fighter with good striking and wrestling. He expects Shainis to come out aggressively but fade, and Jenkins to take over. He predicts a decision win for Jenkins, noting Shainis's low level of competition.

Cody is confident Jenkins wins, citing his pressure, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Shainis was submitted quickly by Sadiq Yusuff and doesn't have the skills to hang. He thinks Jenkins will wear him down with leg kicks and takedowns, likely winning inside the distance or by decision. He took Jenkins over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Connor picks Jenkins, agreeing that Shainis is easily swept and has no control in grappling. He notes that Shainis is gritty but everything is on the razor's edge, and that Jenkins' wrestling, though flawed, will be enough to take Shainis down and control him.

Jenkins is the more complete fighter with superior striking and grappling. Shainis was finished quickly by Sadiq Yusuf in his UFC debut. Jenkins' top pressure and ground-and-pound will be dominant. Shainis may have some success with calf kicks, but Jenkins will take him down and control the fight. Jenkins' cardio allows him to maintain pressure for 15 minutes. He should win a dominant decision, though a finish is possible.

Paul picks Jenkins, noting Shainis's poor UFC debut and lack of a well-rounded game. He thinks Jenkins' leg kicks and wrestling will be too much. He mentions Jenkins is not a finisher but should control the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Don Shainis, criticizing Shainis's record and noting his loss to Jay Ellis as a sign of low level. He believes Jenkins is fundamentally sound and patient, and will finish Shainis in the third round by TKO, matching his contender series performance.

Zane picks Jenkins, describing him as a ground-and-pound specialist with a sticky scrambling style. He notes that Jenkins has a limited game but that Shainis loves getting out-grappled and has poor control. Zane expects Jenkins to get to his spots and flatten Shainis on the ground, despite Jenkins' terrible shot and lack of striking.

Angelo picks Loma Lookboonmee, praising her Muay Thai striking and improved wrestling. He notes that her two UFC losses were to tough veterans, and she should win both striking and takedown exchanges against Elise Reed. He plans to bet on Loma's takedown lines when they drop, expecting her to out-grapple Reed.

Big Brady likes Loma everywhere: at distance, in the clinch, and on the mat. He highlights Loma's Muay Thai in the clinch and her ground-and-pound elbows. He expects Loma to get the fight down and finish Reed by TKO in the second or third round, citing Reed's poor grappling defense.

Cody picks Lookboonmee, noting her Muay Thai clinch and improved wrestling. He thinks she can close the distance and wear on Reed with short elbows and knees. He sees Reed as a live underdog due to her reach and range striking, but ultimately thinks Lookboonmee grinds out a decision.

Connor picks Lookboonmee, stating that Reed's best hope is to overwhelm opponents with speed or power early, but Lookboonmee is calm and has been hurt before without falling apart. He notes that Lookboonmee's striking experience will benefit her, and that Reed's singular dangerous moments are not enough to put Lookboonmee away.

Lookboonmee's leg kicks and clinch elbows will be effective against Reed's Taekwondo blitzes. Reed has shown good defensive grappling and strength, which could stifle Lookboonmee's takedowns. Lookboonmee's grappling improvements allow her to stay calm in bad positions. Reed is a live underdog who has pulled off upsets before. Lookboonmee should outpoint Reed over three rounds, but confidence is not high due to Reed's toughness and strength.

Paul is confident Lookboonmee wins, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take down opponents at will. He notes she has takedowns against Denise Gomes and Sam Hughes. He thinks she can win on the feet with Muay Thai but will likely use wrestling to control the fight. He likes the over on her takedowns on PrizePicks.

The MMA Guru picks Loma Lookboonmee over Elise Reed, calling it a no-brainer. He notes Lookboonmee's close losses to Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez, and her dominant wins over lower-level fighters. He expects a dominant 30-27 decision, as Reed was exposed on the ground by Sam Hughes.

Zane picks Lookboonmee, noting that Reed has no connective tissue in her game and can be held on the fence and taken down easily. He thinks Lookboonmee's clinch and takedowns will be effective, and that Reed's pace down the stretch is perfect for Lookboonmee's measured striking pace. Zane acknowledges that Lookboonmee's fights are often close but believes she has the edge.

Angelo picks Blake Bilder, believing his aggressive grappling will be too much for Shane Young, who is returning after a layoff and losses. He notes that Young is a solid striker but likely cannot keep the fight standing against Bilder's takedowns. He compares the situation to Al Iaquinta vs Bobby Green, suggesting Young is on the card for hometown reasons rather than a career resurgence.

Big Brady is not a big fan of this matchup from a betting perspective. He likes Young's pressure and volume, and thinks Young can stuff takedowns and be the better striker. However, he notes Bilder is dangerous on the ground and leaves openings. He picks Young by decision but with low confidence.

Cody picks Bilder as an underdog, citing his power, athleticism, and aggression. He notes Young has looked disinterested and lacks physicality, while Bilder is a wild man who can knock people out or submit them. He thinks Young's two-year layoff and poor recent performances are concerning. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision prop.

Connor picks Bilder, believing that despite his passive style and awkward defense, he is a great athlete who can take Young's back at some point. He notes that Young has a habit of drifting out of fights when pressured, and that Bilder's athleticism and ability to capitalize on mistakes could lead to a win. However, Connor is not confident because Bilder's game is very limited.

Young is the crisper striker with better movement and takedown defense. Bilder's path to victory is grappling, but Young's improving takedown defense and ability to get back up will keep the fight standing. Young's speed and precision will allow him to land combinations and eventually find a knockout. Bilder has been hurt in fights before. Young, returning after a layoff, will want to make a statement. Expect a second-round KO.

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that he took the fight doesn't go to decision at -125. He notes Bilder is a wrecking ball and Young has never been impressive. He thinks the fight will be high volatility and likely end inside the distance.

The MMA Guru picks Blake Bilder over Shane Young, citing Young's poor performances and long layoff. He believes Bilder's momentum from the contender series and his experience will lead to a first-round finish. He notes Young has let him down too many times.

Zane picks Young, citing that Bilder is a passive fighter who starts slow and doesn't do much, allowing opponents to crush him. He notes that Young has a nice off-speed boxing game and can land power shots. However, Zane is hesitant because Young can shut down when he feels physicality he isn't prepared for, and Bilder is a great athlete who could win by accident.

Angelo picks Zubaira Tukhugov, citing his excellent wrestling and takedown ability, which should dominate Elves Brener, who is stepping up on short notice. He notes that both have mediocre striking, but Zubaira's wrestling is the difference-maker. He expects the fight to go to decision and advises against including Zubaira in parlays due to the risk.

Big Brady is very confident in Tukhugov, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes that Tukhugov has fought much better competition and has 100% takedown defense, while Brener is a grappler with poor takedown defense. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Tukhugov has power and will go after Brener early.

Cody picks Tukhugov but hates the -600 price. He notes Tukhugov is talented but often fights to the level of his competition and has many split decisions. He thinks Brener is a step up in competition and durable. He expects a close fight and would not bet Tukhugov at that price.

Connor picks Tukhugov, agreeing that Brener has zero structure and can be taken out of the fight in any position. He notes that Tukhugov is an insane athlete who has moved past his bad fight period and now looks structured. Connor thinks even a bad Tukhugov would likely win, and that Brener is a regional-level fighter.

Tukhugov's overhand right and clinch grappling will be too much for the short-notice debutant Brener. Brener has a tendency to end up on his back, where Tukhugov can control him. Tukhugov's striking is limited but effective at crashing the pocket. Brener may have success with kicks early, but Tukhugov's pressure and wrestling will take over. The fight likely goes to a decision with Tukhugov grinding out a win.

Paul picks Tukhugov but is not confident. He notes Tukhugov's wrestling and durability should be enough to control Brener, but the -600 line is unplayable. He sees Brener as durable and tough, but thinks Tukhugov wins by decision or late finish. He passes on betting.

The MMA Guru picks Zubaira Tukhugov over Elves Brener, noting that Brener is stepping in on short notice and lacks impressive competition. He believes Tukhugov will take it slow and steady, finishing Brener in the second or third round by TKO. He trusts Tukhugov's experience despite some past losses.

Zane picks Tukhugov confidently, stating that Brener is a bad fighter with no structure to his game, who can lose from any position. He notes that Tukhugov is a massive step up in competition and has shown improved boxing and structure. Zane believes Tukhugov will likely dog-walk Brener, landing a huge shot or takedown.