Career Averages - Ismael Bonfim
Career Averages - Terrance McKinney
Ismael Bonfim
Terrance McKinney
Ismael Bonfim - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 64 of 109 | 58% | 88 of 134 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 47 of 89 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 38 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 47 of 78 | 60% | 50 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 29 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 64 of 109 | 58% | 33 of 60 | 10 of 15 | 21 of 34 | 43 of 83 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 20 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 42 of 84 | 50% | 27 of 68 | 12 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 17 of 31 | 54% | 8 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 12 | 15 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 14 of 28 | 50% | 9 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 47 of 78 | 60% | 25 of 47 | 6 of 9 | 16 of 22 | 28 of 54 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 20 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 28 of 56 | 50% | 18 of 45 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.
Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.
Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.
Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.
The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.
Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.
The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 26 of 42 | 61% | 26 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 26 of 42 | 61% | 26 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Bonfim | 26 of 42 | 61% | 14 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Nazim Sadykhov | 13 of 46 | 28% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 12 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ismael Bonfim | 26 of 42 | 61% | 14 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Nazim Sadykhov | 13 of 46 | 28% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 12 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-198), Sadykhov (+164)
Round 1
Hoping to making tonight a winning night for the family, the elder yet lighter Bonfim (20-4, 2-1 UFC) hits the cage. In a class battle of Brazil vs. Azerbaijan, “Marreta” squares off with Sadykhov (9-1-1, 2-0-1 UFC) in what could be a fascinating 155-pound affair. The styles presented by both men could result in some mighty, thrilling clashes before the dust settles, and referee Mark Smith has the best seat in the house. Doing his duties, Smith clocks the fighters in who are already mid-fist bump. They switch stances while looking for range, and Bonfim strikes first with a few punches and a low kick. Sadykhov has a head kick pound into the guard, and he kicks a few times and spins with a failed back fist. Bonfim loops a right hand around the raised block, and he lets Sadykhov wind up so he can blast him with a right hand and let Sadykhov go whizzing past him. Bonfim just misses with a speedy one-two, and he has a second impact off the shoulder. A third gets through, forcing Sadykhov to swing hard at him. Bonfim gets away with an eye poke, and Sadykhov whips a hook kick at him. Bonfim raps two right hands on the side of the melon, and Sadykhov takes them cleanly without overly seeming concerned. Bonfim lunges to connect with two punches, dancing away from a head kick. Bonfim’s one-two is money in the bank as he keeps drilling “Black Wolf” with it, and Sadykhov is tough but under serious fire. Sadykhov swing back with a vengeance, but his hurled strikes are largely coming up short. Bonfim surges forward with punches, bouncing Sadykhov off the wall and back. When Bonfim wraps a kick under the guard, he is able to slide away before Sadykhov can wind up with his own left hand response. Two kicks from Sadykhov are blocked, and a third hits Bonfim right in the eye and messes him up. Bonfim escapes, and Sadykhov rushes after him hitting him with hammers. A few big left hands from Sadykhov bust a cut open under his right eye, and Sadykhov uses the clinch to hang on to the bell.
Between rounds, Bonfim is appearing severely compromised from the head kick. Smith brings in the doctor after letting the corner and cutman do their business. Bonfim claims that he cannot see, and that is all a physician needs to hear to suggest a fight getting called off.
Bonfim is upset, as he says that he both can and can't see, with the ringside doctor saying it can't be both ways. Any complaints no longer matter, as Smith waves the fight off due to the advice of the physician.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sadykhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sadykhov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sadykhov
The Official Result
Nazim Sadykhov def. Ismael Bonfim R1 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim over Nazim Sadykhov, noting that while Sadykhov is talented, his wins have caveats (e.g., Evan Elder was beating him before a cut, Terrence McKinney was beating him before gassing). He believes Bonfim will stay busy with striking and may mix in takedowns, and that Bonfim won't gas or get cut like Sadykhov's previous opponents.
Big Brady picks Bonfim by decision, noting he is the better striker with good boxing and defensive responsibility. Sadykhov has volume issues and was outlanded by Evan Elder. Bonfim has takedown defense to keep it standing and a good chin. Sadykhov may land a big shot but Bonfim has never been knocked out.
Connor picks Ismael Bonfim, agreeing with Zane that Bonfim is more technical. He notes that Sadykhov is a brute with a shallow game who breaks down when out-techniqued. Connor highlights Bonfim's arrogance as a potential weakness but believes Sadykhov's lack of horsepower means Bonfim can successfully pressure and break him. He also notes that Sadykhov will give up the initiative if pressured, unlike Santini, which favors Bonfim.
Lucrative James picks Ismael Bonfim to win by decision, but admits he does not have a strong read on this fight and needs to do more tape study. He sees Bonfim as the more technical striker with better leg kicks and a well-rounded game, while Sadykhov is a brawler with power and durability. He thinks Bonfim's experience and technicality will allow him to outpoint Sadykhov over three rounds, but acknowledges Sadykhov could land a big shot or win a war. He is not confident enough to recommend a bet.
Bonfim has the experience advantage and more to bring to the table. As long as Sadykhov doesn't land a big power shot, Bonfim dictates pace and pressure and wins on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Ismael Bonfim over Nazim Sadykhov, noting Bonfim's slickness and more options. He criticizes Sadykhov for letting fights get scrappy and lacking ability to force things. He believes Bonfim's time off has allowed improvement and he will deliver, though he jokes about Bonfim's reaction to his brother's potential loss.
Zane picks Ismael Bonfim, citing Bonfim's superior technical skills in striking, wrestling, and grappling compared to Sadykhov. He notes that Sadykhov's game breaks down when faced with better technique, as he only wants to fight one way. Zane acknowledges Bonfim's tendency to make arrogant decisions and give up positions, but believes Sadykhov lacks the horsepower to capitalize like Santini did. He also points out that Sadykhov is more of an opportunist on the ground, not a constrictor, reducing the risk of Bonfim getting caught.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 111 of 216 | 51% | 112 of 217 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 61 of 142 | 42% | 64 of 147 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 34 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 18 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 36 of 75 | 48% | 36 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 22 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 42 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Bonfim | 111 of 216 | 51% | 80 of 176 | 13 of 20 | 18 of 20 | 107 of 209 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Vinc Pichel | 61 of 142 | 42% | 26 of 93 | 14 of 24 | 21 of 25 | 60 of 140 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ismael Bonfim | 34 of 66 | 51% | 19 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 13 of 15 | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinc Pichel | 18 of 47 | 38% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 10 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ismael Bonfim | 36 of 75 | 48% | 29 of 66 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinc Pichel | 22 of 54 | 40% | 9 of 37 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 12 | 22 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ismael Bonfim | 41 of 75 | 54% | 32 of 63 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 37 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Vinc Pichel | 21 of 41 | 51% | 12 of 27 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is confident in Bonfim, citing his youth, power, and aggressive style against the 41-year-old Pichel who hasn't fought in two years. He references the trend of older fighters getting finished at UFC Vegas 91. He advises betting early before odds move.
Big Brady highlights Bonfim's youth and striking advantage, noting Pichel's age (41) and long layoff as major concerns. He believes Bonfim will stuff takedowns and dominate on the feet, leading to a one-sided decision. He acknowledges Pichel's submission threat but doubts he can implement it.
Cody picks Bonfim, citing his sharp striking, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Pichel is 41, inactive, and has no submission wins. Cody expects Bonfim to win, possibly by decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bonfim by decision, citing his youth, volume striking, and experience despite his age. He notes that Pichel is durable and has low mileage for his age, but Bonfim's boxing and takedown defense should allow him to win minutes on the feet. He believes Bonfim's finishing equity is overrated and that a decision is likely.
Bonfim stumbled in his last fight against Benoit Saint-Denis but is expected to have a better showing against the 41-year-old Pichel, who has been two years away from the cage. Bonfim is the slicker striker and can stay competitive in grappling if Pichel takes it there. His striking will start to chip away at Pichel and allow him to find a finish in the second or third round.
Paul picks Bonfim, highlighting his explosive striking and takedown defense. He notes Pichel's inactivity and age are concerns. Paul expects Bonfim to win but acknowledges Pichel's grit could make it competitive.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Ismael Bonfim, predicting a first-round TKO. He expects Bonfim to push Pichel against the cage and bait him with feints, while noting Pichel's age (41) and over two years of inactivity as key factors. He also mentions Bonfim's good jiu-jitsu and the favorable matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 35 of 58 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 | 0 | 2:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 35 of 58 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 | 0 | 2:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Saint Denis | 14 of 24 | 58% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 13 of 33 | 39% | 3 of 18 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benoît Saint Denis | 14 of 24 | 58% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 13 of 33 | 39% | 3 of 18 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim due to his incredible power and impressive debut. However, he advises caution because Bonfim is still unproven and Saint Denis is a tough opponent with good wrestling. He notes Bonfim's boxing and BJJ but questions his cardio and takedown defense. He calls it a low confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Ismael Bonfim to win by third-round knockout. He believes Bonfim is the much better striker with power, and though his striking defense is a liability, Saint Denis is hittable and has been finished before. He notes Bonfim's takedown defense has improved, so Saint Denis won't be able to grapple. He expects Bonfim to land repeatedly and get a late finish.
Cody is high on Bonfim, calling him the real deal with good movement, power, accuracy, and solid takedown defense. He notes Bonfim's wins over tough competition on Contender Series and Terrence McKinney. He sees Saint Denis as an all-action brawler who is hittable and has a good chin but will be overwhelmed by Bonfim's precision. Cody expects Bonfim to win by knockout or clear decision.
Daniel confidently picks Bonfim, citing his polished boxing, feints, timing, and well-rounded game. He notes Saint Denis is tough and durable but his striking is less polished, and Bonfim is comfortable on the ground as well. He believes the striking gap is significant and that Bonfim covers Saint Denis across the board. He missed the opening line (-250) and won't bet at -310, but expects Bonfim to win.
James says he has not taped this fight yet and does not have an opinion. He notes that Benoît Saint Denis is tough but may be outmatched, and that Ismael Bonfim is favored on the feet. He suggests the over might be an angle but needs to do more tape.
Paul thinks the line is a bit out of hand but still picks Bonfim. He notes Saint Denis is capable of making it a war and has value at +260, but Bonfim's skills are superior. Paul mentions the judges can be unpredictable, but Bonfim should win if it's close.
The Guru picks Ismael Bonfim, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Bonfim's impressive win over Terence McKinney via flying knee KO and his strong grappling and takedown defense. He predicts Bonfim will stuff Saint Denis's takedowns and get a second-round TKO, as Saint Denis will hesitate and get broken down.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Bonfim | 1 | 34 of 49 | 69% | 38 of 53 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 20 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 17 of 22 | 77% | 21 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 13 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Ismael Bonfim | 1 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 17 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 7 of 30 | 23% | 7 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Bonfim | 34 of 49 | 69% | 16 of 30 | 16 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 39 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 14 of 49 | 28% | 10 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ismael Bonfim | 17 of 22 | 77% | 5 of 10 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 13 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 7 of 19 | 36% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Ismael Bonfim | 17 of 27 | 62% | 11 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 7 of 30 | 23% | 6 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks McKinney to win by first-round knockout, noting McKinney's incredible power and finishing ability. He acknowledges Bonfim has patched his submission defense and is well-rounded, but McKinney hits like a truck and has good wrestling. He thinks Bonfim will have to walk through fire and if the fight gets past one and a half rounds, Bonfim likely finishes McKinney. He's not betting but expects violence.
Cody picks Ismael Bonfim as a dog, noting his cardio, durability, and well-rounded skills. He says McKinney is explosive but fades under adversity and has poor durability. He thinks Bonfim can weather the early storm and take over as McKinney gasses. He mentions Bonfim's win over Nariman Abbasov as a sign of his quality. He says this is his second underdog pick.
Connor also picks Bonfim, citing McKinney's inability to fight past the first round. He notes Bonfim is a clean puncher with solid grappling and has never been knocked out. McKinney's recklessness and poor cardio are key factors.
Paul picks Terrance McKinney, noting his explosiveness and power. He says McKinney will likely finish early, but acknowledges the risk of him gassing. He says he's not betting this fight but picks McKinney. He mentions McKinney's under machine reputation and that the under 1.5 rounds is juiced.
The Guru picks McKinney but acknowledges Bonfim is dangerous. He trusts McKinney's weird wiry speed and power in the early round, noting how he nearly put away Dober quickly. McKinney has a wrestling background that is often overlooked. The Guru predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission after hurting Bonfim on the feet. However, he warns that if the fight goes past the first round without Bonfim being hurt, Bonfim may take over.
Zane picks Bonfim because McKinney burns out quickly if he doesn't get an early finish. Bonfim is durable, solid, and has never been knocked out. He notes McKinney's style is unsustainable and he loses after the first round. Bonfim's experience and ability to survive should lead to a win.
Terrance McKinney - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.
Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.
Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.
Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.
The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.
The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.
Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.
Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.
Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.
Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.
Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.
Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.
Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.
The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.
Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.
The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.
Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he believes McKinney's early explosiveness will overwhelm Viacheslav Borshchev, who is older and may not be as durable as before. He notes that McKinney is reliable in that he either finishes early or loses, and he thinks McKinney will come out like a bat out of hell and get the job done. However, he admits he is picking against Borshchev more than for McKinney, and he will monitor the odds for a good betting spot.
Big Brady acknowledges McKinney is the rightful favorite due to his wrestling and power, but he is hesitant because both fighters have questionable durability. He notes Borshchev has terrible takedown defense and was dropped by Chase Hooper, but McKinney's cardio is atrocious and his durability is also suspect. Brady thinks McKinney will land first and win by first-round knockout, but if it leaves the first round, McKinney is in trouble.
Connor picks McKinney, acknowledging Borshchev's durability but noting that Borshchev has been getting worse and more indecisive. McKinney's early explosiveness should catch Borshchev, and if he finishes early, he wins. However, Connor admits it's a risky pick.
The host notes McKinney's tendency for early finishes, but picks Borshchev to fend off the early grappling and get a TKO finish by the end of the first or early second round.
The host picks Terrance McKinney, citing his underrated grappling as the X-factor. He notes that Borshchev has shown weaknesses in grappling, as seen in his losses to Chase Hooper and others. However, he acknowledges McKinney's tendency to get knocked out spectacularly and sees the fight as a 50/50 on the feet. He believes McKinney will use his wrestling to secure a win.
Zane picks Borshchev, reasoning that McKinney only wins if he finishes in the first round, and Borshchev has never been finished early. Borshchev's durability and McKinney's tendency to fade give Borshchev the edge if he survives the initial onslaught.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite his unreliability, citing his superior talent, wrestling, and striking. He notes that Damir Hadžović is older (38) and not as dangerous. He worries about McKinney's cardio and chin but believes he should win early. He suggests looking at round props rather than betting the moneyline at -335.
Big Brady sees this as an easy matchup for Terrance McKinney, who has great wrestling and BJJ. Damir Hadžović has the worst takedown defense in the UFC and has been submitted before. Brady thinks McKinney will take him down and submit him in the first round, though he notes McKinney has terrible cardio if the fight extends. He predicts a first-round submission.
McKinney has a massive grappling advantage and will look to get the fight to the ground immediately. He is expected to take the back and secure a first-round submission, as he has done in all nine of his UFC fights. The fight is predicted to go under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO in the first round. He believes McKinney has finishing potential while Hadžović does not, and that Hadžović is past his prime and likely to be decisioned. He notes McKinney's losses are brutal but expects him to get the job done here.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.
The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.
Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round submission. He notes McKinney is dangerous early with power and wrestling, while Marotte is a big step up in competition and may not survive the first round. He warns that if Marotte survives, he could win, but expects McKinney to get it done quickly.
Cody picks McKinney, emphasizing that Marotte is a huge underdog with no recent fights and a shaky defense. He notes that McKinney's pressure and power are likely to overwhelm Marotte early. Cody suggests that if Marotte survives the first round, he could be live, but he doubts that will happen.
The host picks Terrance McKinney by round one, noting his explosive power and fast starts. He highlights that 19 of 20 McKinney fights finished under 1.5 rounds. However, he warns against the moneyline due to cardio issues and suggests taking McKinney round one or under 1.5 rounds.
Paul picks McKinney, noting his explosive first-round power and the fact that Marotte has no recent tape and is stepping in on short notice. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio issues but believes Marotte is not durable enough to survive the first round. Paul suggests betting McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2 as value plays.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO over Brendan Marotte. He dismisses Marotte as an awful regional fighter who beat an 11-20 opponent and went to a split decision with an 8-4 fighter. He notes Marotte trains at New England Cartel but lacks quality wins. He believes McKinney has a speed advantage and won't be outgrappled, and that Marotte's short notice and lack of durability will lead to a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.
Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.
James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.
McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.
Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:55 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 21 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:20 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 20 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 | |
| 2 | Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazim Sadykhov | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Terrance McKinney | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nazim Sadykhov | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nazim Sadykhov | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sadykhov (-150), McKinney (+130)
Round 1
The UFC chose wisely when it matched up this lightweight main card opener. Ferocious attacker McKinney (13-5; 3-2 UFC) will trade leather and more with Sadykhov (8-1, 1-0 UFC), and combined they hold 20 finishes across their 21 wins. The judges may not be required, but it is an almost certainty that referee Keith Peterson will be called on before it is all said and done. Before the nonsense-free violence ensues, the two clap hands. McKinney darts forward with a jab outstretched, and he counters a leg kick with a left hand. McKinney drops down suddenly in pursuit of a takedown, but the fighter from Azerbaijan shuts him down and gets shoved to the wall. McKinney doggedly pursues the body lock and trip, and he dumps Sadykhov down to his seat. McKinney quickly circles around to take the back, and he locks up the body triangle around the waist as he hunts for a choke. Sadykhov hand-fights well to break up an attempt, so McKinney slams his elbow in to the side of the head to soften him up. Sadykhov keeps his arms up high above his head to prevent any submission from getting close, and the two hand-fight as McKinney looks for a better grip. McKinney smacks the side, and Sadykhov effectively protects himself from anything worse. McKinney alternates one arm or the other to sneak in a rear-naked choke, but Sadykhov is wise to each and every move even though he is getting his midsection crushed with the body lock. McKinney thumps the temple and then side with his left hand, and Sadykhov wall-walks in hopes of breaking up the posture or getting some space. McKinney fishes his right arm around the head to try to secure something, and when he does, Sadykhov turns to his side and breaks up the body lock. Sadykhov spins rapidly to take top position, and he stands himself up. McKinney dives after him for a takedown, but when that fails, they both get back up. Sadykhov charges at his opponent, and McKinney eats two left hands and clinches up. The round ends in this position, with many likely surprised it reached the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McKinney
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 McKinney
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 McKinney
Round 2
Sadykhov races out of his corner to start the second round, backing McKinney right up to the wall. They both sling right hooks, and McKinney hops to the side as he avoids a knee. Sadykhov unloads with a few punches, and McKinney shoots in for a takedown. Sadykhov grabs the fence multiple times to stop it, and Peterson slaps his hand on two separate occasions. This allows Sadykhov to climb on top, and McKinney rolls over to his belly.
McKinney has his left arm trapped in the exchange, and he gets flattened out by the man from Azerbaijan. The rear-naked choke is sunk in with ease, as McKinney is unable to defend it with just one arm in play. After just a second or two, McKinney taps out, and Sadykhov has completely turned the tables after handily dropping the first round.
The victorious Serra-Longo product notches just his second submission as a pro, and he declares that the “world is a boomerang” in his post-fight interview, having avenged the past loss for teammate Matt Frevola.
The Official Result
Nazim Sadykhov def. Terrance McKinney R2 1:07 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo gives a slight lean to Terrance McKinney, calling it a 50.5 to 49.5 pick in his favor. He thinks McKinney is the better fighter overall, with solid striking and wrestling credentials, but his chin is questionable. He is swayed by a conversation with McKinney's coach about improved training partners. However, he hesitates because McKinney was recently knocked out and Sadykhov carries power late. He would only bet if the line moves to make McKinney a bigger underdog.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney, expecting him to revert to his aggressive style and finish Sadykhov early. He notes Sadykhov is a slow starter who has been hurt early in fights, which plays into McKinney's strengths. However, he warns that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first few minutes, his poor cardio will be a problem. He calls it a great live betting spot if Sadykhov survives the first round.
Cody picks McKinney at plus money, citing his explosiveness, power, and wrestling advantage. He thinks McKinney will go back to his aggressive style after pacing himself poorly against Bomfim. He notes Sadykhov's takedown defense issues and that McKinney has speed and power advantages. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio is a concern but thinks he can finish early.
The host highlights McKinney's 17 of 18 fights finishing under 1.5 rounds and 15 first-round finishes. He thinks Sadykhov is hittable and lacks durability, and McKinney's explosivity and power will be too much. He picks McKinney to win in round one, either by KO or submission.
Paul picks Sadykhov, citing his ability to fight 15 full minutes and survive early pressure. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after 5-6 minutes and that Sadykhov can take damage and come back. He mentions Sadykhov's cut stoppage win over Elder was competitive, not one-sided. He thinks a live bet on Sadykhov after the first round is a good strategy.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney over Nazim Sadykhov, citing McKinney's KO power and ability to catch opponents, as seen against Matt Frevola. He worries about McKinney's KO loss but notes his youth and six-month layoff. He sees Sadykhov as a forward-momentum scrapper who could run into a big shot, predicting a McKinney KO.
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady picks McKinney to win by first-round knockout, noting McKinney's incredible power and finishing ability. He acknowledges Bonfim has patched his submission defense and is well-rounded, but McKinney hits like a truck and has good wrestling. He thinks Bonfim will have to walk through fire and if the fight gets past one and a half rounds, Bonfim likely finishes McKinney. He's not betting but expects violence.
Cody picks Ismael Bonfim as a dog, noting his cardio, durability, and well-rounded skills. He says McKinney is explosive but fades under adversity and has poor durability. He thinks Bonfim can weather the early storm and take over as McKinney gasses. He mentions Bonfim's win over Nariman Abbasov as a sign of his quality. He says this is his second underdog pick.
Connor also picks Bonfim, citing McKinney's inability to fight past the first round. He notes Bonfim is a clean puncher with solid grappling and has never been knocked out. McKinney's recklessness and poor cardio are key factors.
Paul picks Terrance McKinney, noting his explosiveness and power. He says McKinney will likely finish early, but acknowledges the risk of him gassing. He says he's not betting this fight but picks McKinney. He mentions McKinney's under machine reputation and that the under 1.5 rounds is juiced.
The Guru picks McKinney but acknowledges Bonfim is dangerous. He trusts McKinney's weird wiry speed and power in the early round, noting how he nearly put away Dober quickly. McKinney has a wrestling background that is often overlooked. The Guru predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission after hurting Bonfim on the feet. However, he warns that if the fight goes past the first round without Bonfim being hurt, Bonfim may take over.
Zane picks Bonfim because McKinney burns out quickly if he doesn't get an early finish. Bonfim is durable, solid, and has never been knocked out. He notes McKinney's style is unsustainable and he loses after the first round. Bonfim's experience and ability to survive should lead to a win.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!